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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second l

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  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    It will be interesting to see the effect (if any) on the polls. A couple of debates and a virtual party political broadcast for Ukip earlier in the week. A couple of percent for them maybe but will it mean anything in 2015?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    maaarsh said:



    It's not simply wrong. British people are people in the EU with the right to move to Britain. They are already in Britain which limits the likelyhood of them to re-exercise that right, but it's you're going to make pathetic nitpicky complaints then you should stick to the semantics rather more closely.

    Titter.

    That would make the true number ~510 million ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Seems a bit of a faff to reconnect the printer to the desktop. Plugged it in, but it won't work without downloading a driver (the automatic attempts to do so have failed). It's just a bloody printer, why should it need a download?

    I saw little bits of the debate, during the ad breaks when Futurama was on. Hard to tell from snippets, but Clegg didn't look great.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Kellner on Sky with some poll breakdown info.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    33% of Lib Dems backing Farage. Remind me of that win win argument? Clegg just turned off a third of his tiny vote for the EU elections.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited April 2014
    Peter Kellner: Both Lab and Lib Dem voters have shifted to Farage since last week.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RobD said:

    Just had a look at that Populus monthly summary. Very frightening findings for Lamont's hopeless Slabbers and Rennie's hopeless Con-merchants.

    Westminster voting intention - Scotland

    SNP 34% (+14)
    Lab 34% (-8)
    Con 18% (+1)
    LD 7% (-12)
    UKIP 3% (+2)
    Grn 2% (+1)

    Baxter:

    Lab 35 seats (-6 seats)
    SNP 20 seats (+14 seats)
    Con 2 seats (+1 seat)
    LD 2 seats (-9 seats)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140401-Populus_FT-March-2014.pdf

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=18&LAB=34&LIB=7&NAT=34&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    Tory seats doubling? PB surger!!
    Dinnae tell Fitta lass.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    68% ! Looks like Shadsy is paying up.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Actually I think Cleggo was better this week than last. But a definite win for Farage despite the Putin tangle.

    I was surprised he tried peddling that 7% line again. I thought after getting exposed on Daily Politics they would have come up with something else.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    According to the Sky News front-page:

    http://news.sky.com/

    Al-Beeb had "Dutchie" Clegg backdropped betwixt a Dutch and Russian flag embracing the EU States wannae-be flag. Fair-and-balanced as a topsy-turvy that has too much topsy and an underweight turvy. And us Netherlands' tax-payers have to pay for this bull...?
  • New Thread
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Peter Kellner: Both Lab and Lib Dem votes have shifted to Farage since last week.

    Well, was winner, not votes! 1 in 3 from 1 in 5.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clegg talking about Orpington was a mistake. Most people won't know what he was on about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    How will the Tories react to all this? I know, I know 'PM's got better things to do/debate between minor politicians/etc etc' but the Tory backbenchers are full of whiny children when it comes to Europe, and a beaming Farage is...well I was going to say it's the last thing they want to see, but actually it's the thing they want to see the most, either out of latent UKIPism or in the hope it forces Cameron and co to tack right (it'll win them the election you see, somehow) and it's been a few weeks since a good Tory rebellion story at least.
  • Farage did much better than expected. I am more hopeful on my EC bet! Interesting that there is a clear disconnect between the chatterati judging Clegg as performing well and then the great thud of the Yougov poll.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    @FullFact

    We asked UKIP about 485m figure but no source yet. Total EU population (excl UK) is estimated at 444m

    Materiality much?
    Materiality?
    I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    @FullFact

    We asked UKIP about 485m figure but no source yet. Total EU population (excl UK) is estimated at 444m

    Materiality much?
    Materiality?
    I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.

    Well since we were talking about misleading statistics one that was just simply untrue seemed worth a comment.
    It's not simply wrong. British people are people in the EU with the right to move to Britain. They are already in Britain which limits the likelyhood of them to re-exercise that right, but it's you're going to make pathetic nitpicky complaints then you should stick to the semantics rather more closely.
    Leaving aside that that would give you a different number again.

    Sticking to the semantics, if you are already somewhere can you 'move' there?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Oh, and I heard Clegg's "Put-in" joke. Bloody awful.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Kay's trying to get a racism angle going here, but racism does not poll anywhere near that well.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    maaarsh said:

    33% of Lib Dems backing Farage. Remind me of that win win argument? Clegg just turned off a third of his tiny vote for the EU elections.

    I thought Farage won and am not turned off.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    There'll be more than a few beers and maybe a few whiskeys, downed tonight as UKIP celebrate another win by Nigel Farage.

    Wouldn't surprise me to find another thousand have joined UKIP by weeks end.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Clegg must go.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    @FullFact

    We asked UKIP about 485m figure but no source yet. Total EU population (excl UK) is estimated at 444m

    Materiality much?
    Materiality?
    I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    @FullFact

    We asked UKIP about 485m figure but no source yet. Total EU population (excl UK) is estimated at 444m

    Materiality much?
    Materiality?
    I'll save you a google. There is no remotely important sense in which 445 and 485 are different in this context - it does not change anything, it is not material.

    Well since we were talking about misleading statistics one that was just simply untrue seemed worth a comment.
    It's not simply wrong. British people are people in the EU with the right to move to Britain. They are already in Britain which limits the likelyhood of them to re-exercise that right, but it's you're going to make pathetic nitpicky complaints then you should stick to the semantics rather more closely.
    Leaving aside that that would give you a different number again.

    Sticking to the semantics, if you are already somewhere can you 'move' there?
    It's not about whether they can, it's about whether they have the right to - look at reproduction rights to see the difference. I am entitled to give birth to my first born in an NHS bed. There's something between my legs guaranteeing I never will.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,458

    Charles said:

    taffys said:

    I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...

    This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.

    That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.
    "Ghost towns"

    Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.

    It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.

    F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.
    You already pay full council tax on a second home, plus capital gains if it's made enough. At the moment, we're having to pay full rates on my financee's house, which we've been trying to sell for the last 7 months. In that time we've had five viewings for a property that's in reasonable condition, in a lovely location and a friendly, neighbourly area. It's on the market for £75k so hardly top-end. Count me unimpressed by talk of housing bubbles.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27787896.html
    It's nothing to do with a housing bubble. It's to do with the way members of *both* of my in-law's families have had members move away because they cannot afford to buy houses in their areas.

    This is a social injustice. It's not as if the incomers are doing up a house prior to a move, or wanting to sell. They are kept as holiday homes and rented out, giving them the best of both worlds. The council tax can be paid for by one week's stay by a paying family. In the meantime, the community - the shops, petrol stations, pubs - close.

    It's worse in areas like Walberswick, which is within commuting distance of London. That might as well be known as luvvie-on-sea.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP membership to overtake LDs soon?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    corporeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    33% of Lib Dems backing Farage. Remind me of that win win argument? Clegg just turned off a third of his tiny vote for the EU elections.

    I thought Farage won and am not turned off.
    There will be some Lib Dem voters who faintly dislike europe and were not aware they were voting for the main cheer leaders. Farron summed it up - if you like the EU vote lib dem, if you don't vote UKIP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Wow!

    Farage smashed Clegg out of the park.. proud to be a UKIP member tonight, he was absolutely different class

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Jonathan said:

    Farage trotted out the classic nationalist playbook. Oversimpified populism, laced with nostalgia and military imagery.

    Utterly pathetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited April 2014
    Was this like the 2 horse race I watched today where the 1/33 favourite romped home on the bit by 11 lengths ?
This discussion has been closed.