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  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945

    Calm down everyone, there's not going to be an election before March next year...
    Winter is a-coming in

    I could see a November election. I agree though, if it isn't then, it won't be till March.

    Both the FPTA 2011, and the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 are causing huge problems. Prior to these, you could have a (near) three week short campaign and get it over with. Now, with the 25 working days campaign (five weeks), PLUS a possible further 14 days during a VoNC, you could easily see a 7 week campaign.

    Such a long length basically means most GE campaigns are now going to span two months. With our society marching on, the days of 'Christmas day is the only holiday' are long gone and people are always sodding off on short breaks, mini breaks, and focus on anything other than a GE.

    Whilst its theoretically possible to have a GE on any day, I think, realistically, only March to June (and avoiding around Easter) and October are viable these days.
    December, January and February are too cold and crash into Christmas. July, August and September crash into the school holidays.
    November is a very, very outside chance, and it would be far better if it was earlier in November.
    But I'm not wrong in saying the earliest date, right now, for a GE if it was called would be 12th November?

    The system is a mess. The 25 working day length is too long, and the 14 day VoNC is too long. It should probably be brought down to 20 and 7 resprectively.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I agree 100%.

    Success is business (and life) comes through iteration. You get something in place that vaguely works and then you iterate.

    Get a WA in place and iterate. Sometimes we'll be moving closer to the EU, and sometimes we'll be moving away. And that's OK. Because sometimes more cooperation will be in our interests, and sometimes more divergence will.
    A sane WA should have been a possible iteration. There was no backstop in our EU membership and had the WA not had the backstop, then it would have been an entirely sensible iteration.

    From where we are now a backstopless WA would be a far more sensible iteration for all parties than No Deal. But we can't make that happen and the backstop is not an iteration.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2019
    Opinion polls:

    4 week averages (latest poll from each firm):

    Con 33.3%
    Lab 25.6%
    LD 19.2%
    BRX 12.0%
    Grn 3.8%

    2 week averages (latest poll from each firm):

    Con 33.0%
    Lab 24.8%
    LD 19.2%
    BRX 12.6%
    Grn 3.8%
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I think you'll find Europe have been making threats for the last three years. I'm quite calm, but I'm also quite prepared to put our country first.
    Our country? I thought you were from the Republic of Bellendia?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746



    What part of "majority white, English speaking, countries" is it that you object to considering that every single EU27 nation that we are supposed to be so close and allied with allegedly are also majority white?

    Is it just "English speaking" you have an objection to? Oh gee whiz why do I think we have more in common with English speaking nations than other ones, however will we resolve this dilemma? Yeah let's bring white into it despite all other nations you compare us with our white too! *rolleyes*

    We don't need them. We want to be on good terms with them but that doesn't mean rolling over and playing dead.

    Open your mind, Australia isn't far from us, its on this same small planet of ours. This is the 21st century not the 15th century. Global communications are instantaneous, global travel can be done in hours not weeks. Nowhere on this tiny planet of ours is remote from us.

    Philip, I live in East Kent, 2 miles from the M20. We do need them, and badly. If Australia imposes customs checks on U.K. goods (or visa versa) it will barely be noticed here. If the EU does the same thing it may add 2 hours to my commute. I’ve seen what delays at Dover do. Australia is, in comparison to France,where I can be in 45 minutes from my front door, very fucking remote. The French government’s actions have a direct impact on my life - Australia’s do not. We even had to have a treaty with them so local radio here could work. Similarly someone in NI feels the same way vis a vis the RoI. To say Australia is in any way comparable to our near neighbours is laughable. We do need them. I see every day why we need them.

    Your unhinged rant about my use of the word “white” yet again misses the point, and I think you doth protest too much. Yes, I have a problem with over reliance on other Anglophone countries, and I say that as someone married to a US citizen born and raised there. You advise us to “broaden our horizons” - my point is that liaising primarily with cultures so similar to us does not do that. It, in fact, narrows them as it deprives is from seeing difference, we end up in an Anglophone bubble. Watching a French soap at least helps me learn a language. What does watching Neighbours do for me culturally? You need to consider carefully how narrow minded your worldview is.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    isam said:


    Labour ‘centrists’ put an option they thought couldn’t win on the ballot in order to make themselves look good. Now they can’t get out of the mess they’ve created. Must have been something in the House of Commons water in 2016

    To be fair Labour aren't totally to blame.

    I paid £3 and voted for JC/TW just for a laugh and with the faint hope they might actually win...never did I actually think there were so many real Labour members who also wanted Waldorf and Stadler as their leadership team.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Good for you. We are not European, we are human. Asia, Europe, North America - it doesn't matter.

    Closing our eyes to Asia and North America and hyperventilating about Europe alone is not progress. We are a country on earth that can be accessed SAME DAY from every other planet on earth, just like every other one.
    Like I say above, customs checks in Tokyo don’t fuck up my local roads. Ones in France do. Think global, act local.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    edited October 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    To be fair Labour aren't totally to blame.

    I paid £3 and voted for JC/TW just for a laugh and with the faint hope they might actually win...never did I actually think there were so many real Labour members who also wanted Waldorf and Stadler as their leadership team.
    But people like Ed Miliband and Margaret Beckett put Corbyn on the ballot to virtue signal their fairness, because they thought he couldn’t win but they would get plaudits for being seen letting him try. That was the original sin
  • Noo said:

    Our country? I thought you were from the Republic of Bellendia?
    I am from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    And I expect when we leave us to control all customs for the whole of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and not a fraction of it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    I am from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    And I expect when we leave us to control all customs for the whole of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and not a fraction of it.
    We occupy Northern Ireland. It’s time we accepted that Ireland has a right to at least a say in its governance. We should leave tomorrow in truth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    DougSeal said:

    We occupy Northern Ireland. It’s time we accepted that Ireland has a right to at least a say in its governance. We should leave tomorrow in truth.
    We don't occupy Northern Ireland.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    I think you'll find Europe have been making threats for the last three years. I'm quite calm, but I'm also quite prepared to put our country first.
    Europe is our country.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DougSeal said:



    We occupy Northern Ireland. It’s time we accepted that Ireland has a right to at least a say in its governance. We should leave tomorrow in truth.

    I'd wave NI and Scotland goodbye in a heartbeat, in fact i'd bung them a few billion just to help them on their way.

    I'd try very hard to persuade the Welsh to stay though.
  • SunnyJim said:

    To be fair Labour aren't totally to blame.

    I paid £3 and voted for JC/TW just for a laugh
    Don't look at me :lol:
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Noo said:

    :D you truly are special
    We had a couple of ding dongs against the US too. And our relations with the Antipodean natives were not all brotherly love.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,352

    I am from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    And I expect when we leave us to control all customs for the whole of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and not a fraction of it.
    Why?

    There are parts of Britain that have the Euro as their national currency, and will continue to have it post Brexit. There are overseas territories of the UK who are part of our customs area, but have no vote on whether that is the case. The people of Northern Ireland, as far as we can tell, seem to be quite keen on a dual customs structure: surely they should get first call on this, not us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    Cyclefree said:

    “We have fought many wars against the EU”.

    I seem to have missed these. When were these wars? Who won?
    The Hundred Years War, the 7 years War, the Spanish Armada, the Napoleonic Wars, WW1 and WW2 were all fought against nations now in the EU.

    All of our wars in the last 100 years were fought alongside one of Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the USA, most of the time all 4
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    DougSeal said:

    We occupy Northern Ireland. It’s time we accepted that Ireland has a right to at least a say in its governance. We should leave tomorrow in truth.
    No we don't, most Northern Ireland seats are held by Unionist parties
  • Andy_JS said:

    Opinion polls:

    4 week averages (latest poll from each firm):

    Con 33.3%
    Lab 25.6%
    LD 19.2%
    BRX 12.0%
    Grn 3.8%

    2 week averages (latest poll from each firm):

    Con 33.0%
    Lab 24.8%
    LD 19.2%
    BRX 12.6%
    Grn 3.8%

    Simply more outliers :lol:
  • DougSeal said:

    Philip, I live in East Kent, 2 miles from the M20. We do need them, and badly. If Australia imposes customs checks on U.K. goods (or visa versa) it will barely be noticed here. If the EU does the same thing it may add 2 hours to my commute. I’ve seen what delays at Dover do. Australia is, in comparison to France,where I can be in 45 minutes from my front door, very fucking remote. The French government’s actions have a direct impact on my life - Australia’s do not. We even had to have a treaty with them so local radio here could work. Similarly someone in NI feels the same way vis a vis the RoI. To say Australia is in any way comparable to our near neighbours is laughable. We do need them. I see every day why we need them.

    Your unhinged rant about my use of the word “white” yet again misses the point, and I think you doth protest too much. Yes, I have a problem with over reliance on other Anglophone countries, and I say that as someone married to a US citizen born and raised there. You advise us to “broaden our horizons” - my point is that liaising primarily with cultures so similar to us does not do that. It, in fact, narrows them as it deprives is from seeing difference, we end up in an Anglophone bubble. Watching a French soap at least helps me learn a language. What does watching Neighbours do for me culturally? You need to consider carefully how narrow minded your worldview is.

    If the French seek to blockade us then we should either retaliate or adjust accordingly, while holding out an olive branch to encourage them not to do so. The French blockade Kent whenever they have a fit over anything that's bothering them and it has nothing to do with Brexit.

    Last time I took a Ferry to France it took us many hours waiting in Kent to get aboard the Ferry because the French were striking . . . because the French love to strike . . . and it was nothing to do with Brexit.

    You may live near the M20. I live near the M6. It can make my life irritating too, I spent an hour doing a five minute journey on Friday because of the madness an accident on the M6 had caused and not for the first time. None of this is a reason to surrender a part of our United Kingdom's customs arrangements.

    As for white, I only mentioned it (briefly) because you did. If you didn't mean to make that remark then an apology would suffice rather than calling my rebuttal of your bullshit an unhinged rant.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Andy_JS said:

    We don't occupy Northern Ireland.
    Tell that to 48% of its population and rising.
  • Andy_JS said:

    We don't occupy Northern Ireland.
    Fermanagh and Tyrone had an overall Nationalist majority at the 1918 election.
  • DougSeal said:

    Tell that to 48% of its population and rising.
    OK.

    When its a majority let them vote. Otherwise the 48% can shut up and respect democracy.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945
    SunnyJim said:

    ...and a third one if we still don't vote the right way.
    Best of seven?

    https://youtu.be/PA5ryowAyLk?t=169
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    No we don't, most Northern Ireland seats are held by Unionist parties
    Northern Ireland is a gerrymandered entity. The island of Ireland is the proper historical unit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    DougSeal said:

    Europe is our country.
    No, Europe is our continent, the UK is our country
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628
    edited October 2019

    OK.

    When its a majority let them vote. Otherwise the 48% can shut up and respect democracy.
    "He was deceived by a lie. We all were!"

    EDIT: Oops - wrong 48%!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    The Hundred Years War, the 7 years War, the Spanish Armada, the Napoleonic Wars, WW1 and WW2 were all fought against nations now in the EU.

    All of our wars in the last 100 years were fought alongside one of Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the USA, most of the time all 4
    Every single one of those "wars" (The Spanish Armada was not a war) was also fought alongside countries that are now in the EU.
    One of them -- the Hundred Years' War -- was fought with England and Scotland on opposite sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    DougSeal said:

    Northern Ireland is a gerrymandered entity. The island of Ireland is the proper historical unit.
    Northern Ireland respects the Protestant and Unionist majority across the counties it comprises to be part of the UK rather than the Republic
  • HYUFD said:

    The Hundred Years War, the 7 years War, the Spanish Armada, the Napoleonic Wars, WW1 and WW2 were all fought against nations now in the EU.

    All of our wars in the last 100 years were fought alongside one of Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the USA, most of the time all 4
    The EU didn't exist before 1958!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Why?

    There are parts of Britain that have the Euro as their national currency, and will continue to have it post Brexit. There are overseas territories of the UK who are part of our customs area, but have no vote on whether that is the case. The people of Northern Ireland, as far as we can tell, seem to be quite keen on a dual customs structure: surely they should get first call on this, not us.
    The MPs elected by the people of NI are, as far as we can tell, not keen on the EU's proposals but Johnson made reasonable suggestions to allow NI's representatives to consent to special arrangements and even a principle of consent seems to cause angst amongst our EU "partners". When consent is being refused to be taken seriously it is time to end the conversation.

    Are British Overseas Territories "parts of Britain"? They are not a part of the United Kingdom unlike Northern Ireland.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    No, Europe is our continent, the UK is our country
    The UK is several countries. Oh, what a tangled web.
  • HYUFD said:

    No we don't, most Northern Ireland seats are held by Unionist parties
    Fermanagh and Tyrone were Catholic majority in 1918.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    edited October 2019

    ut we don't need to pay for it. And if we don't, they will have no choice but to pick up the slack. It is realpolitik.

    Does Europe need our assistance?
    If yes, be our allies, agree a respectful deal.
    If no, so long!

    The UK is going to be responsible for defending western Europe regardless of relations with the EU via NATO membership. Also modern defence projects are so expensive and the supporting industries are so heavily integrated (Type 31: Danish hull, Dutch CMS, German CODAD) that isolation is impossible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    Noo said:

    Every single one of those "wars" (The Spanish Armada was not a war) was also fought alongside countries that are now in the EU.
    One of them -- the Hundred Years' War -- was fought with England and Scotland on opposite sides.
    Bar Portugal we have been at war (or Cold War) with every EU nation at least once in the last 500 years
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992

    Fermanagh and Tyrone were Catholic majority in 1918.
    Good, they can join the Republic then and increase the Protestant and Unionist majority in the remainder of Northern Ireland
  • DougSeal said:

    Northern Ireland is a gerrymandered entity. The island of Ireland is the proper historical unit.
    There are no "proper historical units", the borders of Europe have changed consistently for thousands of years and that principle only ended many decades after the formation of the Republic.

    Do a timelapse graphical video of the map of Europe with different colours for different nations and tell me which mythical date please Europe settled into "proper historical units".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    Noo said:

    The UK is several countries. Oh, what a tangled web.
    The UK is the only sovereign country in GB
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Bar Portugal we have been at war (or Cold War) with every EU nation at least once in the last 500 years
    "I've fought everyone in my local pub, that proves what a rotten bunch they are" :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    HYUFD said:

    Bar Portugal we have been at war (or Cold War) with every EU nation at least once in the last 500 years
    How many UK nations have we been at war with?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992

    How many UK nations have we been at war with?
    None in the last 250 years, unlike most of the current EU nations
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746



    If the French seek to blockade us then we should either retaliate or adjust accordingly, while holding out an olive branch to encourage them not to do so. The French blockade Kent whenever they have a fit over anything that's bothering them and it has nothing to do with Brexit.

    Last time I took a Ferry to France it took us many hours waiting in Kent to get aboard the Ferry because the French were striking . . . because the French love to strike . . . and it was nothing to do with Brexit.

    You may live near the M20. I live near the M6. It can make my life irritating too, I spent an hour doing a five minute journey on Friday because of the madness an accident on the M6 had caused and not for the first time. None of this is a reason to surrender a part of our United Kingdom's customs arrangements.

    As for white, I only mentioned it (briefly) because you did. If you didn't mean to make that remark then an apology would suffice rather than calling my rebuttal of your bullshit an unhinged rant.

    Disingenuous bollocks. I’m not talking about a blockade I’m talking about customs checks both sides of the Channel. I’m talking about the fact it is palpable bollocks to suggest the actions of Australia can have any meaningful impact on our lives. Australia is a 24 hour flight. It is comparatively remote. We are a European nation, not an Asia-Pacific one. A car accident on the M6 will be cleared in a day. These idiotic customs checks at Dover on trips to our compatriots in Europe may snarly things up round here forever.

    It’s all about war and retaliation for you reactionaries isn’t it. Never about cooperation and understanding what the other side want. That’s why you prefer English speaking countries. You love to make threats. Too lazy or fearful to understand what the rest of the world is saying if they don’t speak our language. It’s very sad.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    None in the last 250 years, unlike most of the current EU nations
    We have had the same number of wars with Germany as we have with the US (two).
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    None in the last 250 years, unlike most of the current EU nations
    The Irish War of Independence waves hello
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DougSeal said:

    We have had the same number of wars with Germany as we have with the US (two).
    Not to be a pedant but it's one versus the US, the other was against the colonies
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    There are no "proper historical units", the borders of Europe have changed consistently for thousands of years and that principle only ended many decades after the formation of the Republic.

    Do a timelapse graphical video of the map of Europe with different colours for different nations and tell me which mythical date please Europe settled into "proper historical units".
    We carved out a chunk of their country without consent. As we did to much of the world, leaving nearly half the population of that entity resenting it. England has had its current borders since the 12th century. As has Scotland. Denmark, more or less, even longer. There is no justification for the continuing occupation of the Six Counties. If we came home it would also make your precious and failing Brexit easier too.
  • HYUFD said:

    Good, they can join the Republic then and increase the Protestant and Unionist majority in the remainder of Northern Ireland
    Derry and Armagh have since then also become Catholic majority.
  • HYUFD said:

    Bar Portugal we have been at war (or Cold War) with every EU nation at least once in the last 500 years
    The EU has only been around since 1958!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801

    There are no "proper historical units", the borders of Europe have changed consistently for thousands of years and that principle only ended many decades after the formation of the Republic.

    Do a timelapse graphical video of the map of Europe with different colours for different nations and tell me which mythical date please Europe settled into "proper historical units".
    You're making an argument in favour of the EU, right? If there are no "proper historical units" then an overarching political framework that means it matters less and less which side of a given border you live on is a priceless asset.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    Noo said:

    The Irish War of Independence waves hello
    That was a terrorist campaign rather than a war and then developed into the Irish Civil War
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    We carved out a chunk of their country without consent. As we did to much of the world, leaving nearly half the population of that entity resenting it. England has had its current borders since the 12th century. As has Scotland. Denmark, more or less, even longer. There is no justification for the continuing occupation of the Six Counties. If we came home it would also make your precious and failing Brexit easier too.
    It wasn't their country! When did it become "their" country?

    It was all part of our country. A part of our country left without the rest of it. So be it. The borders of an independent country called "Ireland" have very rarely been consistent at all over the last thousand years.

    We can't "come home" from a part of our country. It is home. Unless the voters there wish to leave us, they are as they remain as they've been for centuries a part of us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    DougSeal said:

    We have had the same number of wars with Germany as we have with the US (two).
    We fought Prussia in the Austrian War of Succession too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992

    Derry and Armagh have since then also become Catholic majority.
    Good get rid of them too and ratchet up the Protestant and Unionist majority in NI even more
  • HYUFD said:

    That was a terrorist campaign rather than a war and then developed into the Irish Civil War
    Irish WAR of Independence:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_War_of_Independence
  • You're making an argument in favour of the EU, right? If there are no "proper historical units" then an overarching political framework that means it matters less and less which side of a given border you live on is a priceless asset.
    No. I'm making an argument in favour of NATO, the rule of law, modern nation states and modern economics.

    The EU is second-rate to all of that and is an outcome of that and not what triggered it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    DougSeal said:

    We carved out a chunk of their country without consent. As we did to much of the world, leaving nearly half the population of that entity resenting it. England has had its current borders since the 12th century. As has Scotland. Denmark, more or less, even longer. There is no justification for the continuing occupation of the Six Counties. If we came home it would also make your precious and failing Brexit easier too.
    The majority of DUP constituencies in Northern Ireland voted Leave
  • HYUFD said:

    We fought Prussia in the Austrian War of Succession too
    Germany wasn't formed until 1871.
  • DougSeal said:

    Disingenuous bollocks. I’m not talking about a blockade I’m talking about customs checks both sides of the Channel. I’m talking about the fact it is palpable bollocks to suggest the actions of Australia can have any meaningful impact on our lives. Australia is a 24 hour flight. It is comparatively remote. We are a European nation, not an Asia-Pacific one. A car accident on the M6 will be cleared in a day. These idiotic customs checks at Dover on trips to our compatriots in Europe may snarly things up round here forever.

    It’s all about war and retaliation for you reactionaries isn’t it. Never about cooperation and understanding what the other side want. That’s why you prefer English speaking countries. You love to make threats. Too lazy or fearful to understand what the rest of the world is saying if they don’t speak our language. It’s very sad.
    Customs checks won't snag things up forever. Worst case scenario more customs infrastructure and new roads need improving in Kent. Things get snarled up for days, weeks, months or years while an adjustment is made but eventually people will be used to it. And that's assuming a mutually-agreeable deal is not reached in the mean time.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:
    On UNS there would be no Tory majority. The poll implies 20 gains from Labour - of which 13 enjoy first term incumbency - offset by 12 losses to LDS and circa 10 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 316 seats. Without allowing for first term incumbency and the retirement of Simon Hughes and Greg Mulholland , Labour would end up on 231 with the LDs on 30.
  • HYUFD said:

    The majority of DUP constituencies in Northern Ireland voted Leave
    Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56% to 44%.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    That was a terrorist campaign rather than a war and then developed into the Irish Civil War

    I was tempted to just say you're talking shite, but I decided to find a source to show it.
    Here's a UK government minister -- from the Northern Ireland Office no less -- referring to the "Irish War of Independence"
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/dr-murrison-address-to-ww1-ancestors-memories-event
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    Good get rid of them too and ratchet up the Protestant and Unionist majority in NI even more
    So how small a statelet does your pure Protestant Norn Iron have to get before even you admit it’s unviable? The Shankill Road?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    rpjs said:

    So how small a statelet does your pure Protestant Norn Iron have to get before even you admit it’s unviable? The Shankill Road?
    The majority of the Northern Ireland population live in Protestant and Unionist majority Counties Antrim and Down and as part of the UK they would never be unviable
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    "This is the first time this year that ComRes have reported a Conservative majority."
    Not on a UNS basis!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801

    No. I'm making an argument in favour of NATO, the rule of law, modern nation states and modern economics.

    The EU is second-rate to all of that and is an outcome of that and not what triggered it.
    NATO does nothing to dissolve borders.
  • NATO does nothing to dissolve borders.
    Who's talking about dissolving borders? Not me.
  • HYUFD said:

    The majority of the Northern Ireland population live in Protestant and Unionist majority Counties Antrim and Down and as part of the UK they would never be unviable
    South Down, West Belfast and the Glens of Antrim are Catholic majority.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Comres has the SNP even lower than YouGov, down to just 32% in Scotland now though with Labour the beneficiaries rather than the LDs.

    68% of Tories and 66% of Brexit Party voters say Boris would not be to blame for the UK not leaving the EU on 31st October, 82% of Labour voters and 87% of LDs say he would
    From what I can see the poll has the SNP on 39% Lab 20% Con 16% LD 16%
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801

    Who's talking about dissolving borders? Not me.
    You're the one arguing that there is no correct position for national borders in Europe.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    isam said:


    Labour ‘centrists’ put an option they thought couldn’t win on the ballot in order to make themselves look good. Now they can’t get out of the mess they’ve created. Must have been something in the House of Commons water in 2016

    I blame Sarah Wollaston, they did an open primary and she won it and she was pretty good and everybody thought, see, you can put stuff straight to the voters, they won't do anything retarded
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I could see a November election. I agree though, if it isn't then, it won't be till March.

    Both the FPTA 2011, and the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 are causing huge problems. Prior to these, you could have a (near) three week short campaign and get it over with. Now, with the 25 working days campaign (five weeks), PLUS a possible further 14 days during a VoNC, you could easily see a 7 week campaign.

    Such a long length basically means most GE campaigns are now going to span two months. With our society marching on, the days of 'Christmas day is the only holiday' are long gone and people are always sodding off on short breaks, mini breaks, and focus on anything other than a GE.

    Whilst its theoretically possible to have a GE on any day, I think, realistically, only March to June (and avoiding around Easter) and October are viable these days.
    December, January and February are too cold and crash into Christmas. July, August and September crash into the school holidays.
    November is a very, very outside chance, and it would be far better if it was earlier in November.
    But I'm not wrong in saying the earliest date, right now, for a GE if it was called would be 12th November?

    The system is a mess. The 25 working day length is too long, and the 14 day VoNC is too long. It should probably be brought down to 20 and 7 resprectively.
    We had an election in February 1974 and February 1950. On both occasions , turnout was very high - even without the readily available Postal Vote option we have today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited October 2019

    South Down, West Belfast and the Glens of Antrim are Catholic majority.
    Antrim is over 70% Protestant, Down over 60% Protestant.

    Their position as part of the UK can and will be defended no matter what the cost
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Antrim is over 70% Protestant, Down over 60% Protestant.

    Their position as part of the UK can and will be defended no matter what the cost
    South Down is 75% Nationalist (2017). West Belfast is 74% Nationalist (2017). The Antrim Glens (represented by the former Moyle District Council) were 60% Catholic in 2011.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Antrim is over 70% Protestant, Down over 60% Protestant.

    Their position as part of the UK can and will be defended no matter what the cost
    You could get rid of Scotland and London too if you want to ratchet up the Brexiteer majority.
  • You're the one arguing that there is no correct position for national borders in Europe.
    That's got nothing to do with dissolving them.

    We agreed decades ago, but decades after the independence of the Republic of Ireland to lock down borders as they happened to exist then. There was nothing historically perfect about borders as they were then, but to prevent wars we chose to stop changing borders. The idea that Irish independence violates laws that didn't exist until decades afterwards is ludicrous.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Antrim is over 70% Protestant, Down over 60% Protestant.

    Their position as part of the UK can and will be defended no matter what the cost
    Have you been to NI yet or is that later in the month iirc?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238
    HYUFD said:

    We will always be culturally closer to Australia and NZ than Europe, even if their Asian population grows so is ours too anyway
    We use the word differently to Australia

    The Australians use the American sense of the word "Asian" - people from South-East Asia, so Chinese, Malay, Thai etc.

    We use the British sense of "Asian" - people from Pakistan, India, etc
  • viewcode said:

    We use the word differently to Australia

    The Australians use the American sense of the word "Asian" - people from South-East Asia, so Chinese, Malay, Thai etc.

    We use the British sense of "Asian" - people from Pakistan, India, etc
    When I came back to England I found that one of the oddest discrepancies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238

    No. I'm making an argument in favour of NATO...

    Boris's (rumoured) actions will accelerate the breakup of NATO. You can't be pro-Nato and pro-Boris.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238
    The Spectator article by James Forsythe which Johnson is discussing is here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238

    Here's something that will blow your mind. More Brits live in Australia than any European nation.

    ...but less Brits live in Australia than all the European nations combined

    https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36299682
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    FPT

    How is Pence still 44 on BF?

    If that was Pence's "Next President" price I'd invest, but it's his price for winning the 2020 election. I don't think Trump would stand up to the pressure of an impeachment trial - he'd completely kook out and have to be 25thed out of office. He wouldn't be able to sit there and answer questions without calling the person putting the question fake and corrupt, asking "Are you talking to me?", or demanding that he be asked a different question; and if called to order - "Mr Trump, please answer the question that you were asked" - the indications are that he couldn't handle it. He might get 25thed even before reaching that stage. Pence's probability of being the next president is way higher than 2.3%. But winning a presidential election? Ford didn't.

    BF prices:
    * Trump won't be impeached in 1st term: 3.35;
    * Trump leaves office before end of 1st term: 4.9.
    That's about evens that what WON'T happen is that he gets impeached and stays in office. Value.
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    It's nuts to request something from somebody and then complain that by granting your request they're "interfering".

    A: "Can you lend me £20?"
    B: "Sure, here you go."
    A: "You vile person, interfering in my life like that!"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,352
    viewcode said:

    ...but less Brits live in Australia than all the European nations combined

    https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36299682
    Surely "fewer"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Judy is in cinemas this week and so is Joker and if you have to choose between the two, then it’s Judy every time. I would even add: step away from Joker. Step away, and step away now, if you know what’s good for you. It may be a masterpiece or it may be irresponsible trash — there is some controversy here — but either way it is so bleak and so dark and so upsetting the words ‘bleak’ and ‘dark’ and ‘upsetting’ don’t really cover it, and you may never be able to sleep again. Strange as it may be, the film about the wounded Hollywood chanteuse driven to an early and tragic death is, in fact, the far sunnier proposition."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/if-you-ever-want-to-sleep-again-step-away-from-joker/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522
    justin124 said:

    On UNS there would be no Tory majority. The poll implies 20 gains from Labour - of which 13 enjoy first term incumbency - offset by 12 losses to LDS and circa 10 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 316 seats. Without allowing for first term incumbency and the retirement of Simon Hughes and Greg Mulholland , Labour would end up on 231 with the LDs on 30.
    In an age where our MPs are viewed as something lower than a snake turd, there is no "first term incumbency"......

    "You said you'd implement Brexit. You lied to us. Now piss off...."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Why on earth is the Treasury issuing Brexit coins? A deeply political issue like this shouldn't be used in this way IMO.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/07/10m-brexit-50p-coins-minted-october-31-three-times-previously/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    The next thirteen months in US politics are going to be an absolute sh!t-show, and social media and advertising companies are going to be right at the centre of it on a daily basis. Specifically Facebook, Twitter and Google.

    No matter what the eventual outcome of the elections, there’s going to be a severe change in regulatory environment for these companies in the coming years.
  • Maybe this is jumping the shark.

    But maybe this is jumping to the next stage of some 'move fast, break things' shpiel.

    I think it's interesting that one part of this statement very clearly defines the question of approval/disapproval of a (possible) extension request as "(hostile) interference in domestic politics", while the statement as a whole is a public declaration of the firm intent to trade off considerable assets (money in any form, trade advantages, informations, security/defence cooperation) for, literally, "interference in domestic politics".

    By some (narrow?) definition this on its own might constitute an act of treason, in some people's mind.

    Some people might come to the view that this might constitute, in the light of the Benn Act, prophylactically frustrating the intent of said act, before that ominous, fateful letter is sent, instead of frustrating the intended effect of said letter after sending it, as had previously been suggested.

    Some people might even come to the view that the Cummings/Johnson team would not find it all that inconvenient if it were to be percieved by the wider - and slightly underinformed - public as 'being held back from delivering the coveted Brexit' by the judiciary, one pillar of the 'establishment', in infamous collusion with that other central pillar, the insubordinate, and therefor 'discredited' parliament, because that might be quite a good starting point to first winning public favour in the impending elections and then, as a welcome side effect, after having prepared the ground, finding it easier to move the balance of power between government, parliament and courts in favour of the executive.

    Events certainly look much too chaotic to presume they are part of a prewritten playbook, rather an improvisation of sorts, but where we are now, intensive wargaming might suggest to the protagonists that brazen, relentless provocation of the truculent adversaries, until the dam breaks, is the most promising way forward.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Andy_JS said:

    "Judy is in cinemas this week and so is Joker and if you have to choose between the two, then it’s Judy every time. I would even add: step away from Joker. Step away, and step away now, if you know what’s good for you. It may be a masterpiece or it may be irresponsible trash — there is some controversy here — but either way it is so bleak and so dark and so upsetting the words ‘bleak’ and ‘dark’ and ‘upsetting’ don’t really cover it, and you may never be able to sleep again. Strange as it may be, the film about the wounded Hollywood chanteuse driven to an early and tragic death is, in fact, the far sunnier proposition."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/if-you-ever-want-to-sleep-again-step-away-from-joker/

    'Bleak' 'dark' 'upsetting' 'never be able to sleep again'

    Enough already Joker PR department, I'm already sold on the idea of watching the film!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The police should be sending sniffer dogs into Number 10, judging by that statement.
  • The police should be sending sniffer dogs into Number 10, judging by that statement.

    Betfair have opened a second GE market with just four options. Oct, Nov,Dec, 2020 or later. If you think it will be 2020 or later the new market is currently offering slightly better odds than the first one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I see Boris Johnson is putting his "world king" persona into action.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Betfair have opened a second GE market with just four options. Oct, Nov,Dec, 2020 or later. If you think it will be 2020 or later the new market is currently offering slightly better odds than the first one.
    That is the remnants of a month-by-month market. I’m waiting for December to shorten further before laying it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NB that mad statement is internally inconsistent. “We’ve got a cunning plan to defeat the Benn Act that we can’t talk about but in any case there will be an election shortly after 31 October which we will win gloriously and impose a no-deal Brexit with”.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Bar Portugal we have been at war (or Cold War) with every EU nation at least once in the last 500 years
    Including Switzerland and the Scandinavian coutries?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This could make for interesting electoral campaign dynamics:

    https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1181443140143779840?s=21
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    PClipp said:

    Including Switzerland and the Scandinavian coutries?
    When did Switzerland and Norway join?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    philiph said:

    When did Switzerland and Norway join?
    Sorry, I missed the EU bit. But how about Greece?
This discussion has been closed.