Corbyn seems to have mislaid his populist touch. In 2017, Labour's messages were all good crowd-pleasing policies. This time? Nationalised pharma and abolishing private schools. The only people to whom they appeal are already voting Labour.
I wonder if he really has reached his ceiling this time.
Good news about Heidi Allen. One of the few defectors with a realistic hope of holding her seat. Of course the impact is rightly much reduced given the bizzare number of changes to her designation she's made this year and the fact she's already crossed the floor. Never the less bringing an incumbent into a national party brand and infrastructure is a step forward.
As a non lawyer I've just finished reading the full Court of Session judgement. It's 18 pages and quite detailed but very easy for a lay person to follow the argument. It's skillfullly worded in clearly constraining the Govrrnment very heavily while refusing the actual petition. Having seen the full wording I'm even more reassured than I was by the summary. Well worth a read if you have the time.
Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.
This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
On Marr yesterday Shami said the election will be end of November or early December and you'd have to think she's speaking with Jezza's permission on that.
Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.
This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?
Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
Re the James Forsyth stuff at the end of the last thread he's another brilliant journalist who's reputation has been badly damaged by Brexit. Printing verbatum a Downing Street statement as if it's some researched nugget is ludicrous. A press release would get more critical engagement. As for the text it's exactly what you'd expect them to say at this stage of the game of chicken.
The fundamental contradiction in the No 10 position remains is they are running two contradictory messaging operations simultaniously. 1. We'll never extend 2. This is how we'll retaliate after we've extended.
All politics is in statis till we see how the dynamics of them having to extend plays out.
Re the James Forsyth stuff at the end of the last thread he's another brilliant journalist who's reputation has been badly damaged by Brexit. Printing verbatum a Downing Street statement as if it's some researched nugget is ludicrous. A press release would get more critical engagement. As for the text it's exactly what you'd expect them to say at this stage of the game of chicken.
The fundamental contradiction in the No 10 position remains is they are running two contradictory messaging operations simultaniously. 1. We'll never extend 2. This is how we'll retaliate after we've extended.
All politics is in statis till we see how the dynamics of them having to extend plays out.
They're not contradictory.
The message is simultaneously:
1. We are clear that "we" are not asking for an extension. 2. This lame duck Parliament is subverting us and asking for one, if you accept their request against our wishes then this is how we will respond.
What's unreasonable about that? What was unreasonable of the Benn Act was to try and put the extension request in the PM's name when clearly it was not coming from the PM.
So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?
Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
If he could persuade the voters to forget about him that would do wonders for Labour's polling. But in practice they wouldn't, there would be opportunities for him to look serious and statesmanlike, and come the subsequent election it would be back to Corbyn vs Boris.
Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.
This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?
Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
Yep Shami was clear a GNU wasn't happening without Corbyn leading it (said the idrea of anyone other than Jezza leading it was "fantasy")
Jezza will have to take his chances in an election because what other choice has he got without becoming an utter irrelevence?
So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?
Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
If he could persuade the voters to forget about him that would do wonders for Labour's polling. But in practice they wouldn't, there would be opportunities for him to look serious and statesmanlike, and come the subsequent election it would be back to Corbyn vs Boris.
No, there will be opportunities for the PM to look serious and statesmanlike - and whoever is chosen as PM for the Labour Party could easily muster the threshold required to launch a leadership challenge against Corbyn to make taking over the leadership a formality.
Corbyn has opportunities to appear serious and statesmanlike as LOTO, under your proposal he'd be neither PM no LOTO. It'd be insane for him to agree - one thing to do it for a week while a letter gets sent, another thing entirely to trust someone for six whole months.
No, there will be opportunities for the PM to look serious and statesmanlike - and whoever is chosen as PM for the Labour Party could easily muster the threshold required to launch a leadership challenge against Corbyn to make taking over the leadership a formality.
It's up to him but if I was him I wouldn't pick a Labour MP, for that reason. (An ex-Tory is tough for Labour to swallow for other reasons, the solution is Sylvia Hermon.)
I'm not saying this setup is *great* for Corbyn but as things stand he's heading to give Boris Johnson a majority and end his career in failure. You said he had no way to avoid this, but he does have a way to avoid this, and IMHO he'd be wise to roll the dice on it.
I think they'll poll half of that in reality... The 2019 UK general election will be the final time Leave voters have to secure Brexit... And the only way to secure it will be by voting Conservative.
In 2017 Leave voters believed the other parties about respecting the refernedum result and so along with Theresa's dreadful campaign the Leave vote split all over the place.
Except that the SNP is doing better in Scotland than that, and therefore it will be touch and go whether the Conservatives get a majority.
The SNP were on just 35% in the last YouGov Scottish subsample and the Tories increased their voteshare in an Aberdeen council by election last Thursday so the SNP may not be doing much better than that after all
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
In a boost for the Prime Minister as he comes under increasing pressure to extend Article 50, the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31.
That compares with more than eight in ten voters (83 per cent) who said they would blame Parliament, while 70 per cent said they would hold Remain MPs responsible and nearly two thirds (63 per cent) would point the finger at the European Commission.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets.
No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.
Voters know who is responsible.
If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
Nope. General election 28th November or 5th December. Shami said so on national television yesterday and she's right in the heart of Jezza's inner-sanctum so she'd be speaking with his permission.
I was surprised her comments didn't get much attention yesterday,
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Are we running a protection racket now?
And i'm sure you were saying that when Obama was trying to bully voters in to remaining.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
Yep, he's going to say: "All very regrettable, wiffle-waffle, piffle-paffle, didn't want to do it, surrender bill, blah-blah not my fault - I'm merely the PM, blah-blah-blah.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Are we running a protection racket now?
If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.
If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
“I’ve failed and therefore I resign” hopefully.
@HYUFD has assured us on numerous occasions he will resign rather than extend.
The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets.
No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.
Voters know who is responsible.
If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
Nope. General election 28th November or 5th December. Shami said so on national television yesterday and she's right in the heart of Jezza's inner-sanctum so she'd be speaking with his permission.
I was surprised her comments didn't get much attention yesterday,
Still, it seems hard to fathom, an election near Christmas when it get darks at 3.30pm up north. Grim.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Question is very much like my half Italian mate, it’s the wrong half that’s Italian.
This is a betting site, the value bet is betting brexit happening before 1 Nov because this has to be becoming longer odds now yet at same time there’s a small chance it might actually happen. The more interesting market now is not the certainty of extension but it’s length, I think it would be much more than three months for many reasons, the winter months are coming, next to zero chance of UK election in winter plus it’s blocked by labour who to be fair to them would come out worst from it, 31st was chosen because after that we are into new EU, so once in new EU 6th month 9 or 12 months extension means nothing to them and seem most likely to me.
Meanwhile, I am confident that not only will Boris agree this extension, but zilch harm will come of it in the polls. 30 to 35 % of electorate will vote for Boris when that election comes, when he extends his poll lead will hardly drop, it won’t be going to brexit.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
The difference between "satisfied" and "approval" for Corbyn v Johnson is -16 vs -32. That seems quite significant. Which is likely to be more powerful in predicting voter behaviour?
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Are we running a protection racket now?
If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.
If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Are we running a protection racket now?
If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.
If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
Depends? Is Europe so short-sighted that they think screwing over the country paying for its defence is a bad idea in its own right?
Tomorrow when the business development team ring round and ask us what bullshit marketing events we are going to for the rest of the month, I'm going to tell them "I can't go to all these parties. Who do you think I am, Heidi Allen?"
Anyway the joke will be completely lost on them so I've written it down here. Please click like.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
Are we running a protection racket now?
If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.
If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
Depends? Is Europe so short-sighted that they think screwing over the country paying for its defence is a bad idea in its own right?
So we’re prepared to make our own situation worse to what? Prove a point?
If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?
I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
The Daily Mirror already has the photoshopped picture.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?
I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.
It doesn’t really matter what you say because we’ll continue to work with European countries for defence purposes regardless of what empty threats the Government comes out with because we benefit from them.
"...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent.
Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
“I’ve failed and therefore I resign” hopefully.
@HYUFD has assured us on numerous occasions he will resign rather than extend.
Johnson will extend. It’s certain now, but it won’t damage him, his supporters won’t blame him for it. HY always argued Alex the Great won’t extend because of how many supporters would go to UKIP. But it’s certain now they won’t. None of the 35% plus who are certain to vote for him in GE will not only stick with him, but as their anger towards opposition parties for extending this purgatory grows, so will leavers sympathy grow for Boris messed around by those opposition parties. For remainiacs it will be a Pyrrhic victory, less popular with public and brexit still not cancelled.
Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?
I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.
It doesn’t really matter what you say because we’ll continue to work with European countries for defence purposes regardless of what empty threats the Government comes out with because we benefit from them.
Its as simple as that.
Exactly. Making UK citizens poorer and less free is one thing. Making them less safe is something else completely.
Comments
I wonder if he really has reached his ceiling this time.
The revival of the Lib Dems changes things though. There's an alternative opposition now.
Com Res just up.
As a non lawyer I've just finished reading the full Court of Session judgement. It's 18 pages and quite detailed but very easy for a lay person to follow the argument. It's skillfullly worded in clearly constraining the Govrrnment very heavily while refusing the actual petition. Having seen the full wording I'm even more reassured than I was by the summary. Well worth a read if you have the time.
The longer the farce of a LOTO hiding from voters drags on the more pathetic he will look.
Corbyn will be Ole Gunnar Solskjær to Boris as Jurgen Klopp.
This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
Looks like it's actually about to happen!
Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
The fundamental contradiction in the No 10 position remains is they are running two contradictory messaging operations simultaniously. 1. We'll never extend 2. This is how we'll retaliate after we've extended.
All politics is in statis till we see how the dynamics of them having to extend plays out.
The message is simultaneously:
1. We are clear that "we" are not asking for an extension.
2. This lame duck Parliament is subverting us and asking for one, if you accept their request against our wishes then this is how we will respond.
What's unreasonable about that? What was unreasonable of the Benn Act was to try and put the extension request in the PM's name when clearly it was not coming from the PM.
Jezza will have to take his chances in an election because what other choice has he got without becoming an utter irrelevence?
Corbyn has opportunities to appear serious and statesmanlike as LOTO, under your proposal he'd be neither PM no LOTO. It'd be insane for him to agree - one thing to do it for a week while a letter gets sent, another thing entirely to trust someone for six whole months.
Winter is a-coming in
Conservatives 329
Labour 228
LDs 34
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=27&LIB=19&Brexit=13&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Except that the SNP is doing better in Scotland than that, and therefore it will be touch and go whether the Conservatives get a majority.
I'm not saying this setup is *great* for Corbyn but as things stand he's heading to give Boris Johnson a majority and end his career in failure. You said he had no way to avoid this, but he does have a way to avoid this, and IMHO he'd be wise to roll the dice on it.
I think they'll poll half of that in reality... The 2019 UK general election will be the final time Leave voters have to secure Brexit... And the only way to secure it will be by voting Conservative.
In 2017 Leave voters believed the other parties about respecting the refernedum result and so along with Theresa's dreadful campaign the Leave vote split all over the place.
Leavers won't make that mistake again...
Anti LD: Labour could repeat 2017 by generally just sitting there making ominous noises about a split lefty vote letting in a majority BJ govt.
With FPTP, LDs really need a hell of a momentum to get anywhere near “alternative opposition” status in the HOC.
I don't think the LibDems will take 5 Labour seats.
Probably only Sheffield Hallam, assuming the voters there have forgotten about the mendacious former LibDem MP for the seat.
Greens drop again.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Voters know who is responsible.
So while five seems like a lot, don't forget that Labour has lost 40% of its vote since the last election.
That compares with more than eight in ten voters (83 per cent) who said they would blame Parliament, while 70 per cent said they would hold Remain MPs responsible and nearly two thirds (63 per cent) would point the finger at the European Commission.
The findings come after it emerged...
I was surprised her comments didn't get much attention yesterday,
The voters voted to Leave already. If they want to rejoin after we've left then lets have a vote on that.
If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
This is a betting site, the value bet is betting brexit happening before 1 Nov because this has to be becoming longer odds now yet at same time there’s a small chance it might actually happen. The more interesting market now is not the certainty of extension but it’s length, I think it would be much more than three months for many reasons, the winter months are coming, next to zero chance of UK election in winter plus it’s blocked by labour who to be fair to them would come out worst from it, 31st was chosen because after that we are into new EU, so once in new EU 6th month 9 or 12 months extension means nothing to them and seem most likely to me.
Meanwhile, I am confident that not only will Boris agree this extension, but zilch harm will come of it in the polls. 30 to 35 % of electorate will vote for Boris when that election comes, when he extends his poll lead will hardly drop, it won’t be going to brexit.
What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.
Anyway the joke will be completely lost on them so I've written it down here. Please click like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VRliFlrvfA
US withdrawal from Syria leaves fate of Isis fighters and families in detention uncertain
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/07/us-withdrawal-from-syria-leaves-fate-of-isis-fighters-and-families-in-detention-uncertain
Well, I guess that's one way to drive the transition to a cashless society.
I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.
I do agree however that peremptory attacks on Paris and Berlin are a little over the top.
Manchester restaurant wins city’s first Michelin star in 40 years
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/oct/07/manchester-restaurant-wins-citys-first-michelin-star-in-40-years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Its as simple as that.
However, in all seriousness, it is far from my favourite European city.