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SystemSystem Posts: 12,617
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First!!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    edited April 2014
    I can forgive the BBC showing a sub sample even if less than hundred participants but the fact that voting intentions add up to an overround Ladbrokes would be proud of means somebody should be sacked .What a load of rubbish for a state broadcaster
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, speaking after talks with David Cameron at No 10: "We want a better Europe, not more Europe

    Sounds good for Cameron this.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This seems to breach the BBC's editorial guidelines on the reporting of opinion polls on multiple counts:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/page/guidelines-politics-practices-opinion/

    "We should not headline the results of an opinion poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll's findings is necessary to make sense of it"

    "We should not use language which gives greater credibility to the polls than they deserve."

    "If we have doubts about the methodology or the bona fides of those carrying out the poll, for example companies which are new or based abroad, we should either reflect that scepticism appropriately in the way we report the results, or we should consider whether the data is sufficiently credible for inclusion in BBC output."

    "Where the results of an opinion poll appear out of line with expectations, or suggest something new or distinctive, we should take particular care to ensure that it does not receive undue weight in the absence of a reliable trend."
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Antony Wells said the 112% is a result of getting the LD share wrong: it ought to be 7%.

    The East of England is definitely one of the heartlands of the blue-at-Westminster-purple-in-Europe group, though.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Antifrank FPT

    Think it was actually Twirl - a more wieldy form of Flake perhaps?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The BBC should be ashamed of themselves. Contributing to the innumeracy of the nation.
    I hope @MikeSmithson will be writing in.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Sounds good for Cameron this.

    Plus of course Cam's main opponents France are all over the shop after the recent elections.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Subsamples debate?
    Paging Stuart Dickson ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Worst April Fool ever?

    Then I found a clip of it.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gon7gNqYU4&feature=youtu.be&a

    The other flaw is that the Sub-sample doesn't tie in with in the BBC region!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Awww bless, UKIP think it is a proper poll.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    Tykejohnno said:


    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, speaking after talks with David Cameron at No 10: "We want a better Europe, not more Europe

    Sounds good for Cameron this.

    The hitch is when you get down to what you each mean by "better"...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Honestly, whoever at the BBC produced this, deserved to be publicly horsewhipped then locked in a disused fridge with Peter Andre, then write a 20,000 word dissertation on the merits of AV over FPTP.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.

    This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edmundintokyo said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, speaking after talks with David Cameron at No 10: "We want a better Europe, not more Europe

    Sounds good for Cameron this.

    The hitch is when you get down to what you each mean by "better"...
    Getting the Italian PM to say 'not more Europe' just sounds like Cameron ;-)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,809
    Hmm. Not a tip (too early for me to tip it), but Rosberg at 3.25 with Ladbrokes to get pole is worthy of consideration. He beat Hamilton in qualifying at the circuit last year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,630
    edited April 2014
    Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edmundintokyo said:

    The hitch is when you get down to what you each mean by "better"...

    Not really. That's what negotiations are for.

    We want less EU interference. They want more German money. You can see the outline of a deal here...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    edited April 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union -ed).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    After all the effort Unite put into Falkirk I'm not sure if that's a bad thing for Better Together.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    The hitch is when you get down to what you each mean by "better"...

    Not really. That's what negotiations are for.

    We want less EU interference. They want more German money. You can see the outline of a deal here...
    Are there any deep water harbours in Italy capable of hosting a nuclear submarine or two? Sadly not, I suspect.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,630
    edited April 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out of fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    After all the effort Unite put into Falkirk I'm not sure if that's a bad thing for Better Together.
    Maybe.
    Another indication of a dearth of enthusiasm amongst Labour foot soldiers though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    The hitch is when you get down to what you each mean by "better"...

    Not really. That's what negotiations are for.

    We want less EU interference. They want more German money. You can see the outline of a deal here...
    Are there any deep water harbours in Italy capable of hosting a nuclear submarine or two? Sadly not, I suspect.
    I think Italy has a couple. Cagliari and Gioia Tauro,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Panamax_ports#Europe
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2014
    It's quite amusing to see that Unite is split.

    For that matter, I wonder if Unison are all singing off the same hymn sheet?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    France, unsurprisingly, not.

    But France is in full retreat domestically. The Government must be shaken to the core by recent election results. And if a Miliband praised France is seen as the main barrier to a deal, that could play well for Dave even if he can't get much done.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out of fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union -ed).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    After all the effort Unite put into Falkirk I'm not sure if that's a bad thing for Better Together.
    Maybe.
    Another indication of a dearth of enthusiasm amongst Labour foot soldiers though.
    Who needs footsoldiers when you have nuclear subs like Cameron, Carmichael, Darling etc who can do more 'damage' than 100,000 footsoldiers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,809
    Of course, enormo-haddock are capable of deployment not only in shallow and deep waters, but even on land.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,630
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out of fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union -ed).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    After all the effort Unite put into Falkirk I'm not sure if that's a bad thing for Better Together.
    Maybe.
    Another indication of a dearth of enthusiasm amongst Labour foot soldiers though.
    Who needs footsoldiers when you have nuclear subs like Cameron, Carmichael, Darling etc who can do more 'damage' than 100,000 footsoldiers.
    Aye, but when are they going to start damaging the enemy instead of themselves?

    http://tinyurl.com/34lw4l4

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    They really shouldn't have published this on April the 1st

    Volcanoes? Meteors? No, the worst mass extinction in history - The Great Dying - could have been caused by microbes having sex

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-great-dying-an-act-of-microbial-sex-led-to-worlds-biggest-mass-extinction-9226813.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    taffys said:

    France, unsurprisingly, not.

    But France is in full retreat domestically. The Government must be shaken to the core by recent election results. And if a Miliband praised France is seen as the main barrier to a deal, that could play well for Dave even if he can't get much done.

    I rather think that President Hollande will have other rather pressing concerns in the lead up to April 2017, and that it will be his successor who has to agree any deal.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2014
    The figures, for what they are worth, show a decline of 10 for the Tories and 7 for the Lib Dems (if 7 is the correct score) from 2009, up 4 Labour and up 3 Greens., up 24 UKIP, presumably also at the expense of BNP and 'others'
    Gt Yarmouth nailed on Kipper gain 2015!
    I'd take 7 or so off the Kipper score and give it 4, 2 and 1 to Con, Lib, Lab and you won't be far off 2014
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Union

    Disunion in union over backing union because it may split union? This story is like peeling an onion
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Neil said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
    They backed neutrality

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    ...and forces to read a PB thread on HFT. Wrong. Simply wrong.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,630
    Neil said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
    Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union

    What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
    They voted to stay neutral - 'In a branch vote18,025 members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union backed staying neutral, while 5,075 voted for the Yes position. There were no votes for the No position'.

    I believe a lot of the No-ers voted for neutrality to be on the safe side.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BobaFett said:

    Subsamples debate?
    Paging Stuart Dickson ;-)

    That's "internals" to Dickson......

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Richard

    Do you think Unison might not be speaking in unison on the union?

    Help!!!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    steve hawkes @steve_hawkes

    PM David Cameron has just been asked by an Italian journalist- "pls tell us, what's the recipe for economic success?"

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Uniformity from the union means speaking in unison, not unilaterally uniting in untying the union of the Union Unison. Aaaaagh
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    I'm going to be the best man at a gay wedding on May the 17th.

    But there's one condition, I'm not allowed to go within 100 yards of the DJ.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    If it helps untangling the tongue twisters I believe (after a quick google) there are more unions campaigning for 'no' than 'yes' but most seem to have decided not to take a position.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.

    It's so confusing.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Neil said:

    I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.

    The 'Solidarity faction' is rather good too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    Mike Atheron in the Times says Peter Moores is the favourite to become the next England coach.

    He's available at 4/1 with Ladbrokes

    http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/specials/2014-specials/next-permanent-england-head-coach
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Patrick said:

    So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.

    This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.

    The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm going to be the best man at a gay wedding on May the 17th.

    Interesting speech challenge....difficult to take the p*ss out of the groom....???
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    Is this the same Peter Moores who was derided by KP for being rubbish, resulting in their both being sacked?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Neil said:

    I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.

    The 'Solidarity faction' is rather good too.
    One of the (many, many) gifts that Tommy Sheridan's trial(s) gave us.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,937
    Lib Dems on 21% in the East of England ?

    HAPPY APRIL FOOLS DAY !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    taffys said:

    I'm going to be the best man at a gay wedding on May the 17th.

    Interesting speech challenge....difficult to take the p*ss out of the groom....???

    I've got that bit sorted.

    "James and Leigh are going to the Seychelles for their honeymoon, I've had a look at the weather forecast, and James you should be getting a 4inches every night"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    Is this the same Peter Moores who was derided by KP for being rubbish, resulting in their both being sacked?

    Yes, him.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The poll is the usual bollox up from a slipping BBC.

    However, Guido think that a reshuffle is in the offing, which is more interesting:

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 57m
    TORY WARS: Blues Should Read Their Bonaparte - “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”: http://bit.ly/1gkDNBp
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,937
    3 one liners for you to slip in @TSE

    Man United

    English cricket

    Ed Miliband.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: media should be "controlled" to stop Farage

    http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/yasmin-alibhai-brown-media-should-be.html
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I've got that bit sorted.

    And its going to be unseasonably windy, blowing pretty hard apparently.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cleggover's past links with Putin is called to attention.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/01/Cleggs-private-partners-side-with-Putin-too

    Pot calling kettle. But at least the kettle has steam.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    More Red-on-Red

    With Douglas Alexander in the firing line, cui bono?

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/04/01/douglas-alexander-in-the-firing-line-cui-bono/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Tykejohnno said:

    Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: media should be "controlled" to stop Farage

    http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/yasmin-alibhai-brown-media-should-be.html

    Tykejohnno said:

    Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: media should be "controlled" to stop Farage

    http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/yasmin-alibhai-brown-media-should-be.html

    Well what can you expect from our, oh so freedom loving, Yasmin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,177
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
    Oh you tease!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Cleggover's past links with Putin is called to attention.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/01/Cleggs-private-partners-side-with-Putin-too

    Pot calling kettle. But at least the kettle has steam.


    So clegg better keep Quiet on number of laws that come from Brussels and now putin ;-)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    Socrates said:

    Patrick said:

    So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.

    This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.

    The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
    I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Seriously this must be one of the most disgraceful reports in the history of the BBC.

    A child at Primary School should have realised immediately that the numbers could not possibly be right.

    Everyone involved should be sacked, on the spot, for gross incompetence.

    If they can get something so simple wrong, what else are they getting wrong?

    It is a 100% credibility destroyer. No work done by the same people in the future can ever be trusted.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,438
    Tykejohnno said:

    MikeK said:

    Cleggover's past links with Putin is called to attention.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/01/Cleggs-private-partners-side-with-Putin-too

    Pot calling kettle. But at least the kettle has steam.


    So clegg better keep Quiet on number of laws that come from Brussels and now putin ;-)
    A "Grand-Alliance" between UKIP and Russia against the EU?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,438
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
    The World Cup?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Fact-checking the Clegg v Farage EU debate

    http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/fact-checking-clegg-v-farage-eu-debate.html

    If you look at the facts,farage was nearer the facts by this fact checking than 'look at the facts' clegg.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    philiph said:

    Socrates said:

    Patrick said:

    So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.

    This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.

    The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
    I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
    During the Cold War the Berlin Wall was a potent symbol of the superiority of the West. The Eastern Bloc was so bad that they had to build a wall to keep people in.

    I think it is a very bad sign that not long after the fall of the Berlin Wall people are seeking to erect barriers to keep people out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
    The World Cup?
    I don't think Roy Hodgson is that desperate yet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,438
    antifrank said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
    The World Cup?
    I don't think Roy Hodgson is that desperate yet.
    The Commonwealth Games?

    :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,438
    OblitusSumMe said:

    philiph said:

    Socrates said:

    Patrick said:

    So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.

    This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.

    The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
    I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
    During the Cold War the Berlin Wall was a potent symbol of the superiority of the West. The Eastern Bloc was so bad that they had to build a wall to keep people in.


    Comrades! You should know full well that was naught but Western propaganda! The Wall was constructed to keep the Fascist Invader out :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,937
    Tykejohnno said:

    Fact-checking the Clegg v Farage EU debate

    http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/fact-checking-clegg-v-farage-eu-debate.html

    If you look at the facts,farage was nearer the facts by this fact checking than 'look at the facts' clegg.

    NICK CLEGG

    Verdict: Technically true but highly misleading
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,795
    state_go_away said:

    I can forgive the BBC showing a sub sample even if less than hundred participants but the fact that voting intentions add up to an overround Ladbrokes would be proud of means somebody should be sacked .What a load of rubbish for a state broadcaster

    Some people sympathise with you!

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8974-bbc-scotland-referendum-output-set-to-be-monitored

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.

    We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.

    Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
    I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    TOPPING said:

    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?

    The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    TOPPING said:

    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?

    The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
    Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TOPPING said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    TOPPING said:

    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?

    The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
    Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?
    He's a she. More info here:

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/03/28/maria-miller-couples-in-civil-partnerships-will-be-able-to-convert-them-to-marriages-by-the-end-of-the-year/

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014
    TOPPING said:

    Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?

    I imagine the Department and the Registrar General are pretty busy at the moment implementing the main provisions of the 2013 Act. I suspect the consequential provisions will be brought into force shortly.

    Edit: I see RN has answered the point already.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    TOPPING said:

    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?

    The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
    Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?
    He's a she. More info here:

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/03/28/maria-miller-couples-in-civil-partnerships-will-be-able-to-convert-them-to-marriages-by-the-end-of-the-year/

    ah yes of course. Thanks. And I get them being busy @LIAMT but it does seem a ridiculous time to wait. How complicated can it be?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TOPPING said:

    And I get them being busy @LIAMT but it does seem a ridiculous time to wait. How complicated can it be?

    You could always offer to sort out all the processes and difficulties for them? That would speed it up!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,795
    TOPPING said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    TOPPING said:

    Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?

    The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
    Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?
    How odd (and poor people). The Scots don't seem to have a problem with a direct upgrade without reboot.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Neil said:

    TOPPING said:

    And I get them being busy @LIAMT but it does seem a ridiculous time to wait. How complicated can it be?

    You could always offer to sort out all the processes and difficulties for them? That would speed it up!
    Yes because we're at bare bones staffing levels in the civil service.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    TOPPING said:

    ah yes of course. Thanks. And I get them being busy @LIAMT but it does seem a ridiculous time to wait. How complicated can it be?

    Never underestimate the capacity of civil servants to make work for themselves.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    @Antifrank FPT

    Think it was actually Twirl - a more wieldy form of Flake perhaps?

    I didn't read the last thread in detail. But if this comment refers to what I think it does...

    *mind bleach*
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Man Utd are best-priced at 6/1 to defeat Bayern tonight with the draw available at 4/1. Combining these two possible outcomes, the German side can be laid at odds of approx 2/1.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    The Greens have also been quoting these numbers to show they will take a seat off the LDs in the Eastern region - ie. the version with the LDs on 7%.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    How odd (and poor people). The Scots don't seem to have a problem with a direct upgrade without reboot.

    Under the Marriage (Scotland) Act 1977 (as to be amended by section 8 of the Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Act 2014 from a date to be appointed) civil partners will be able to marry each other in Scotland. However, they will be required to marry in the same way as any other couple to a regular marriage pursuant to sections 3 to 7 of the 1977 Act. One advantage of the English and Welsh legislation, it may be thought, is that it may allow existing civil partners, who have always considered themselves married de facto, to obtain that status de jure with less formality and with greater ease than contracting a separate civil marriage.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    According to UKPR there's a margin of error of 13% with these figures so UKIP can say it puts them on at least 31% in the Eastern region which isn't bad.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Just for fun, this poll would produce

    UKIP 4 (+2)
    Con 1 (-2)
    Lab 1 (nc)
    Grn 1 (+1)
    LD 0 (-1)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AndyJS said:

    According to UKPR there's a margin of error of 13% with these figures so UKIP can say it puts them on at least 31% in the Eastern region which isn't bad.

    Looking at the sampling error along on these things paints a bit of a misleading picture. The true margin of error in YouGov figures is twice the sampling error, despite attempts to reduce it.

    Having said that, if the national picture is mid- or high-20s, UKIP should be doing better in the East of England, so 31% isn't bad.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2014
    East Anglia is by all accounts UKIP's heartland, so I would certainly expect them to come top there, possibly very comfortably.

    That Lib Dem share looks really off though? I wouldn't expect them to come close to equalling the Tories in any region, and the only region where I could see them beating Labour is the southwest.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    Another interesting series of posts on http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk

    In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.

    Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bedford:

    Lab 2/5
    Con 2/1
    LD 25/1
    UKIP 50/1
    Mike Buchanan 100/1

    https://m.ladbrokes.com/#!event_details?id=216773182
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Danny565 said:


    That Lib Dem share looks really off though?

    Read the thread. It's an error. Should be 7%.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.

    The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Danny565 said:

    East Anglia is by all accounts UKIP's heartland, so I would certainly expect them to come top there, possibly very comfortably.

    That Lib Dem share looks really off though? I wouldn't expect them to come close to equalling the Tories in any region, and the only region where I could see them beating Labour is the southwest.

    The real share - according to that crossbreak - was just 7% - the misreporting was why it didn't total 100%.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Neil said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.

    The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.

    Bath will go to the SNP. It's a GOTV thing.
This discussion has been closed.

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