I'm sure I've just spent a couple of hours in the company of Tapestry! I've had to listen all about the Greada Treaty, and the 1979 Dulce secret base alien shootout. He wants to stand for our local parish council, and he has similar ideas about the direction our village plan should be taking as me, and wants to break up the parish council clique. I had toyed with the idea of helping him, he's a good bloke, retired engineer, and a really impressive self taught computer geek. I'm not sure I want to get involved now, though. He loves conspiracy theories, and he told me he emails our local MP most days asking her to explain the government's position, or knowledge of various plots. I'm scared I'm gonna be on some government list now!
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
Heralds of UKIPs 2015 triumph in the arsehole of Norfolk! How awesome though!
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
When you have a house in Hungary, getting excited about breeding storks seems quaint.
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
When you have a house in Hungary, getting excited about breeding storks seems quaint.
East European immigrants. No wonder it's UKIP territory.
In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.
Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
Comparing that to GE Constituencies, it suggests that Huntingdon, S Cambs, SE Cambs and NW Cambs could all be worth a tip for UKIP if the odds are long enough.
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.
For which party is Dominic Tristram standing?
Ben Howlett looks a bit better than a weak candidate.
He won a primary (albeit only 150 Member voters), got elected as Chairman of Conservative Future (2010-13); ran the successful campaign to unseat the Lib Dem Leader of Kingston Council; and was the only CF Chairman to be selected as a platform speaker at the Tory conference. Not massive achievements but equally not the C.V. of a loser.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
"Len McCluskey told reporters he could see the union voting to disaffiliate from a defeated Labour if it ceased to be the voice of working people.
He said he feared for the future of the Labour Party and said he agreed with those who said the party had no "God given" right to exist.
The party was at a crossroads, he said.
He told a press gallery lunch at Westminster that Labour leader Ed Miliband had not yet presented a "coherent vision" to the electorate and if it were "a pale shadow of austerity", then he believed Labour would be defeated in 2015......
He also said there was a danger of Labour taking UKIP for granted.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
It's a hell of a big majority to overturn, and the LibDems have been dug in in Bath for years. Stranger things have happened, but 6/1 doesn't look like value to me, despite Don Foster retiring.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
It's a hell of a big majority to overturn, and the LibDems have been dug in in Bath for years. Stranger things have happened, but 6/1 doesn't look like value to me, despite Don Foster retiring.
The fact that we are discussing it back and forth suggests that yet again, Shadsy has probably got his pricing about right!
In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.
Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
Comparing that to GE Constituencies, it suggests that Huntingdon, S Cambs, SE Cambs and NW Cambs could all be worth a tip for UKIP if the odds are long enough.
Huntingdon? Are you serious? Would require not only a collapse in the Tory vote but a pick up from Lab/LD's.
The poll that's not a poll and results from by elections like Sunderland do tend to show UKIP is anti establishment in the main, it's where the protest is going. If that trend plays out in a GE, who can tell the effect on marginal seats? Who has more anti establishment feeling? It's the Cleggasm that never reached climax reinvigorated. I mean does it play out with Labour regaining Northampton North but losing Exeter for example? If the Con Lab share is close, I think this might be an almost ridiculous election. Not to be too much of a cliche, but if UKIP get 10%, throw out the rule book.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
It's a hell of a big majority to overturn, and the LibDems have been dug in in Bath for years. Stranger things have happened, but 6/1 doesn't look like value to me, despite Don Foster retiring.
Richard
I know Bath reasonably well having once lived in the City.
It is naturally Tory even though it is stuffed full of coffee bars smelling of petunia oil and smoked muesli.
In the circumstances I think one of the gold medal winning skeleton athletes - Lizzy Yarnold would be my choice - would have been the way to go as it would draw in the ever burgeoning university vote.
Still, a number of my City friends have 'retired' to take the Spa waters and I have never thought them to vote other than blue.
In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.
Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
Comparing that to GE Constituencies, it suggests that Huntingdon, S Cambs, SE Cambs and NW Cambs could all be worth a tip for UKIP if the odds are long enough.
Huntingdon? Are you serious? Would require not only a collapse in the Tory vote but a pick up from Lab/LD's.
Johnny Major would never allow his seat to go purple. Needs a 22%swing to UKIP. No.
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
Am surprised that a subset with such a small sample was even considered to be reliable. Coming soon why Moyes is the greatest United manager since Sir Alex - from sample of 58 residents of Manchester.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
It's a hell of a big majority to overturn, and the LibDems have been dug in in Bath for years. Stranger things have happened, but 6/1 doesn't look like value to me, despite Don Foster retiring.
Richard
I know Bath reasonably well having once lived in the City.
It is naturally Tory even though it is stuffed full of coffee bars smelling of petunia oil and smoked muesli.
In the circumstances I think one of the gold medal winning skeleton athletes - Lizzy Yarnold would be my choice - would have been the way to go as it would draw in the ever burgeoning university vote.
Still, a number of my City friends have 'retired' to take the Spa waters and I have never thought them to vote other than blue.
One of these 'naturally Tory' seats that are full of well to do lefties eh? You'll be telling us that Primrose Hill is 'naturally Tory' next...
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
There are 16 wards making up Bath Parliamentary seat . In 2011 Lib Dems won 12 Conservatives 3 and 1 was split 1 councillor each . Votes were roughly Lib Dems 14,000 Conservatives 9,400
On topic, it's a reminder that the general media aren't particularly versed in opinion polls. We've had a few excited posts here about subsamples, but it's really bonkers when a BBC region does it.
One of the various excuses that I produce about losing in 2010 is that the Nottingham Post did a survey of a few dozen shoppers in the city centre, and extrapolated it to show what was happening in the surrounding seats. There were something like 35 shoppers from Broxtowe, and they happened to split 13/11/10 for Con/LibDem/Lab. So the Post duly reported that the LibDems were the closest to beating the Tories, and of course the LibDems frenziedly put it around (I would have done too), persuading lots of people and getting 17% of the vote. It seems quite funny now but it was annoying at the time.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
It's a hell of a big majority to overturn, and the LibDems have been dug in in Bath for years. Stranger things have happened, but 6/1 doesn't look like value to me, despite Don Foster retiring.
Richard
I know Bath reasonably well having once lived in the City.
It is naturally Tory even though it is stuffed full of coffee bars smelling of petunia oil and smoked muesli.
In the circumstances I think one of the gold medal winning skeleton athletes - Lizzy Yarnold would be my choice - would have been the way to go as it would draw in the ever burgeoning university vote.
Still, a number of my City friends have 'retired' to take the Spa waters and I have never thought them to vote other than blue.
One of these 'naturally Tory' seats that are full of well to do lefties eh? You'll be telling us that Primrose Hill is 'naturally Tory' next...
Bobafett
I have never lived in Primrose Hill, though I have watched a Guy Fawkes Night fireworks display from its banks.
I also had a boss who lived in Primrose Hill.
Both were naturally blue.
Can't tell from the coffee bar smells though.
Carwardines of Bath used to roast their coffee beans just inside their front door so I can attest to this coffee shop (probably alone in Bath) being High Tory.
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
There are 16 wards making up Bath Parliamentary seat . In 2011 Lib Dems won 12 Conservatives 3 and 1 was split 1 councillor each . Votes were roughly Lib Dems 14,000 Conservatives 9,400
My thanks Mark.
So a City bias to yellow. Must be in the stone.
Still a Tory win is not impossible from your numbers.
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
There are 16 wards making up Bath Parliamentary seat . In 2011 Lib Dems won 12 Conservatives 3 and 1 was split 1 councillor each . Votes were roughly Lib Dems 14,000 Conservatives 9,400
If Labour have any sense in this seat Mark they'll accidentally on purpose boosterise the Liberals.
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
Are we expecting a baby boom in Norfolk shortly ?!?
I don't really want to live in a society where the government can freely monitor what I'm doing from my smart phone and my internet browsing, when I've committed no crime and am not connected to any particular investigation.
Hungary's general election is this weekend. Anyone wanting to follow developments could do worse than look at http://www.politics.hu/
From this site I discovered:
"There have been a few reports of criminal acts related to the election, such as Saturday’s attack of a candidate of the left-of-centre alliance and her companions in Csokako, east of Budapest, and a knife attack in Budapest’s Bosnyak Square, police acted swiftly and effectively in these cases, Pinter said. In the latter case, the attacker had consumed six litres of wine prior to the incident, he added."
You have to be impressed that anyone who had consumed six litres of wine could see straight enough even to see a knife.
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
Are we expecting a baby boom in Norfolk shortly ?!?
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
There are 16 wards making up Bath Parliamentary seat . In 2011 Lib Dems won 12 Conservatives 3 and 1 was split 1 councillor each . Votes were roughly Lib Dems 14,000 Conservatives 9,400
My thanks Mark.
So a City bias to yellow. Must be in the stone.
Still a Tory win is not impossible from your numbers.
Maybe 11/2?
If you like wishful thinking . You may note that the 2011 results were the best ever for the Lib Dems in these wards . The previous election in 2007 had Lib Dems 11 Con 4 and 1 ward split . The Conservatives have been going backwards since 2003 .
Off Topic . A pair of White Storks are building a nest on a chimney near Great Yarmouth . It will be the first record of breeding in the UK since 1418 .
Are we expecting a baby boom in Norfolk shortly ?!?
Don Foster apparently got a huge boost from tactical voting from Labour supporters in 2010, as compared with 1997, 2001 and 2005. He presumably also had an incumbency bonus.
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Council split 29-29 on councillors in 2011, with 2% vote share lead for the blues.
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
There are 16 wards making up Bath Parliamentary seat . In 2011 Lib Dems won 12 Conservatives 3 and 1 was split 1 councillor each . Votes were roughly Lib Dems 14,000 Conservatives 9,400
My thanks Mark.
So a City bias to yellow. Must be in the stone.
Still a Tory win is not impossible from your numbers.
Maybe 11/2?
If you like wishful thinking . You may note that the 2011 results were the best ever for the Lib Dems in these wards . The previous election in 2007 had Lib Dems 11 Con 4 and 1 ward split . The Conservatives have been going backwards since 2003 .
Watch the bounce, Mark, watch the bounce.
Bath is one of the few cities where an hirsute councillor doesn't indicate party affiliation.
I don't really want to live in a society where the government can freely monitor what I'm doing from my smart phone and my internet browsing, when I've committed no crime and am not connected to any particular investigation.
A police officer can arrest you at will, but doesn't. Why? Because there is legislation in place to reign him in, because something can be done, doesn't mean it is.
Baxter gives the Tories a >70% chance of winning Solihull and the LibDems a <15% chance of retaining it. On that basis, those odds of 2/1 look a bit skinny to me.
I don't really want to live in a society where the government can freely monitor what I'm doing from my smart phone and my internet browsing, when I've committed no crime and am not connected to any particular investigation.
A police officer can arrest you at will, but doesn't. Why? Because there is legislation in place to reign him in, because something can be done, doesn't mean it is.
People always use pure analogies when they can not justify the actual facts of a situation. What reigning in is there of GCHQ and the NSA?
Did it stop them collecting millions of webcam images of innocent people?
The apologism of some people to our powerful overseers is a joke. The term "English liberty" meant something once. But whether it's Tony Blair or David Cameron, they're all the same authoritarian big brother types.
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
And for those who don't believe the David Cameron is complicit in the surveillance state, let's just remember what he has said about those that believe government spying on our personal communication, with no individual cause or warrants is an abuse:
"Airy-fairy", "la-de-da", "helping our enemies". The same bullsh*t lines that are used by autocratic governments all over the world. He was never a liberal conservative, as he once claimed. He's a lying #### that said whatever would get him to the top of government, and then gives carte blanche for the surveillance state to monitor every aspect of innocent civilians' lives.
The wikipedia article is a bit odd, and not just the stilted wording. It suggests that the Greens could switch sides and join the centre-right alliance. That's so far as I know entirely out of the question. The poll overview unhelpfully shows the gap between the largest parties rather than the two alliances. The centre-left have a steady 10-point lead over the centre-right, though that's fractionally smaller than it has been in the past. The Sweden Democrats (far right) get 9%ish, so a potential centre-left majority may not be as big as it looks, but they should still win.
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....</blockquote
You can stick your toys where the sun shines , we are not so insecure we need to have big guns to make us hard men.
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
Someone on here yesterday was talking up Tory prospects in Derby North but I don't see it myself. Nick may have an opinion since the seat isn't far from Broxtowe.
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
Depends if there's an anti establishment sweep by UKIP, cleaning out the BNP and disaffected from last time. He ought to hold it, the Tories did well to get within 1100
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
What does that make Dish Face and his merry men, 13 times as insecure?
'Eight Government departments have spent a total of £274,481.16 so far on legal fees trying to prevent the release of Charles's letters, Attorney General Dominic Grieve has disclosed.'
Someone on here yesterday was talking up Tory prospects in Derby North but I don't see it myself. Nick may have an opinion since the seat isn't far from Broxtowe.
Williamson is hugely popular among animal welfare people but I don't know much about the seat or the issues mac referred to. In general I'd have thought the Tories will have difficulty in city seats but I don't know the position in Derby.
Another way of looking at it is to judge whether the Tories are actually making an effort, beyond direct mails and phone canvassing, which are useful but not enough on their own. Has anyone living in any of the target seats actually encountered Tory leaflets and canvassers recently?
Depends if there's an anti establishment sweep by UKIP, cleaning out the BNP and disaffected from last time. He ought to hold it, the Tories did well to get within 1100
Interesting choice by the Tories there: Andrea Jenkyns is a singer/songwriter.
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
What does that make Dish Face and his merry men, 13 times as insecure?
'Eight Government departments have spent a total of £274,481.16 so far on legal fees trying to prevent the release of Charles's letters, Attorney General Dominic Grieve has disclosed.'
Someone on here yesterday was talking up Tory prospects in Derby North but I don't see it myself. Nick may have an opinion since the seat isn't far from Broxtowe.
Williamson is hugely popular among animal welfare people but I don't know much about the seat or the issues mac referred to. In general I'd have thought the Tories will have difficulty in city seats but I don't know the position in Derby.
Another way of looking at it is to judge whether the Tories are actually making an effort, beyond direct mails and phone canvassing, which are useful but not enough on their own. Has anyone living in any of the target seats actually encountered Tory leaflets and canvassers recently?
I can confirm that the Socialist Workers Party were campaigning in Manchester Central two Saturdays ago.
Edit: Outside the Arndale, wanting to put the ConDems on the dole
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
What does that make Dish Face and his merry men, 13 times as insecure?
'Eight Government departments have spent a total of £274,481.16 so far on legal fees trying to prevent the release of Charles's letters, Attorney General Dominic Grieve has disclosed.'
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
Your idol is so insecure, that he spent £20,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to keep non existent advice secret.
What does that make Dish Face and his merry men, 13 times as insecure?
'Eight Government departments have spent a total of £274,481.16 so far on legal fees trying to prevent the release of Charles's letters, Attorney General Dominic Grieve has disclosed.'
Comments
I've had to listen all about the Greada Treaty, and the 1979 Dulce secret base alien shootout.
He wants to stand for our local parish council, and he has similar ideas about the direction our village plan should be taking as me, and wants to break up the parish council clique.
I had toyed with the idea of helping him, he's a good bloke, retired engineer, and a really impressive self taught computer geek. I'm not sure I want to get involved now, though. He loves conspiracy theories, and he told me he emails our local MP most days asking her to explain the government's position, or knowledge of various plots.
I'm scared I'm gonna be on some government list now!
"The leader of Britain's biggest trade union has warned Ed Miliband Unite could break its links with Labour if the party loses the next election."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26832994
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/apr/no-campaign-claims-being-used-april-fools
How awesome though!
Solihull: LDs 2/1.
Con 1/2
LD 6/4
UKIP 50/1
Lab 100/1
MK 250/1
Backing Clegg there myself.
But against Danny in Inverness.
Ben Howlett looks a bit better than a weak candidate.
He won a primary (albeit only 150 Member voters), got elected as Chairman of Conservative Future (2010-13); ran the successful campaign to unseat the Lib Dem Leader of Kingston Council; and was the only CF Chairman to be selected as a platform speaker at the Tory conference. Not massive achievements but equally not the C.V. of a loser.
Looks like the Tories have selected a Lib Dem type campaigner.
Obviously one would prefer a High Tory in the seat of William Pitt the Elder, but Howlett might just be able to pull off a surprise victory.
Julian Deverell is standing for UKIP.
Interesting names.
He said he feared for the future of the Labour Party and said he agreed with those who said the party had no "God given" right to exist.
The party was at a crossroads, he said.
He told a press gallery lunch at Westminster that Labour leader Ed Miliband had not yet presented a "coherent vision" to the electorate and if it were "a pale shadow of austerity", then he believed Labour would be defeated in 2015......
He also said there was a danger of Labour taking UKIP for granted.
Peregrine Sacheverell Dominic de Fane Tristram did catch my eye though.
I mean does it play out with Labour regaining Northampton North but losing Exeter for example?
If the Con Lab share is close, I think this might be an almost ridiculous election. Not to be too much of a cliche, but if UKIP get 10%, throw out the rule book.
I know Bath reasonably well having once lived in the City.
It is naturally Tory even though it is stuffed full of coffee bars smelling of petunia oil and smoked muesli.
In the circumstances I think one of the gold medal winning skeleton athletes - Lizzy Yarnold would be my choice - would have been the way to go as it would draw in the ever burgeoning university vote.
Still, a number of my City friends have 'retired' to take the Spa waters and I have never thought them to vote other than blue.
Needs a 22%swing to UKIP. No.
Lab 4/5
Con 9/4
LD 5/2
6/1 on the Conservatives looks just about exactly right to me.
Con 1/3
LD 2/1
UKIP 50/1
Lab 100/1
Are UKIP always underestimated? What are the polls vs elections we're looking at specifically?
Flag Quote · Off Topic
Every Ashcroft by election poll since 2011 I think
I would need to defer to M. Senior on matters such as ward constituency overlap (the Council includes NE Zumerzet) and voting trends.
I believe there is an upcoming council by-election too (tomorrow?) and the May councils, so worth keeping an eye on the results.
In the GE it appears Labour are doing their best for the Lib Dems by fielding a candidate who is hardly out of his nappies.
Am surprised that a subset with such a small sample was even considered to be reliable. Coming soon why Moyes is the greatest United manager since Sir Alex - from sample of 58 residents of Manchester.
The Swedish general election:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2014#
One of the various excuses that I produce about losing in 2010 is that the Nottingham Post did a survey of a few dozen shoppers in the city centre, and extrapolated it to show what was happening in the surrounding seats. There were something like 35 shoppers from Broxtowe, and they happened to split 13/11/10 for Con/LibDem/Lab. So the Post duly reported that the LibDems were the closest to beating the Tories, and of course the LibDems frenziedly put it around (I would have done too), persuading lots of people and getting 17% of the vote. It seems quite funny now but it was annoying at the time.
I have never lived in Primrose Hill, though I have watched a Guy Fawkes Night fireworks display from its banks.
I also had a boss who lived in Primrose Hill.
Both were naturally blue.
Can't tell from the coffee bar smells though.
Carwardines of Bath used to roast their coffee beans just inside their front door so I can attest to this coffee shop (probably alone in Bath) being High Tory.
Remember the mere whisper of erm, shall we say, Caledonian Internals did Stuart Dickson naw good at all.
So a City bias to yellow. Must be in the stone.
Still a Tory win is not impossible from your numbers.
Maybe 11/2?
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/21x7lf/new_leaks_show_nsa_gchq_infiltrating_private/cghcat3
I don't really want to live in a society where the government can freely monitor what I'm doing from my smart phone and my internet browsing, when I've committed no crime and am not connected to any particular investigation.
From this site I discovered:
"There have been a few reports of criminal acts related to the election, such as Saturday’s attack of a candidate of the left-of-centre alliance and her companions in Csokako, east of Budapest, and a knife attack in Budapest’s Bosnyak Square, police acted swiftly and effectively in these cases, Pinter said. In the latter case, the attacker had consumed six litres of wine prior to the incident, he added."
You have to be impressed that anyone who had consumed six litres of wine could see straight enough even to see a knife.
One of the storks has sex fungus.
I wonder if OGH will apply for Scots nationality ....
Bath is one of the few cities where an hirsute councillor doesn't indicate party affiliation.
That is why I am predicting a close shave.
On that basis, those odds of 2/1 look a bit skinny to me.
Did it stop them collecting millions of webcam images of innocent people?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/gchq-nsa-webcam-images-internet-yahoo
Did it stop them tracking the locations of billions of innocent people?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nsa-collects-data-revealing-location-of-five-billion-mobile-phones-every-day-8983957.html
Did it stop them from taking in millions of phone records, and large scale mapping of social groups?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/us/nsa-examines-social-networks-of-us-citizens.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&
Did it stop them from raiding the home of whistle blowers and forcing them to close down their business?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/26/us/leaks-inquiries-show-how-wide-a-net-is-cast.html?_r=0
The apologism of some people to our powerful overseers is a joke. The term "English liberty" meant something once. But whether it's Tony Blair or David Cameron, they're all the same authoritarian big brother types.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26845118
Shame that we cannae af'urd as many subs as "Wee-Eck": Just think what those New troose; hotel-suites; nae. ez a wrong-un, ah Astute submarines will bring when Scotland fecks-off and gets a self-defence force.
Och-aye: Wanna' wait a' mo'....
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/25/david-cameron-angela-merkel_n_4162948.html
"Airy-fairy", "la-de-da", "helping our enemies". The same bullsh*t lines that are used by autocratic governments all over the world. He was never a liberal conservative, as he once claimed. He's a lying #### that said whatever would get him to the top of government, and then gives carte blanche for the surveillance state to monitor every aspect of innocent civilians' lives.
With Denham going, I'm going for Southampton Itchen. Anyone got a better shot?
First thing that happens is Yasmin Alibhai-Brown pipes up with "He's not handsome, he's not sexy, he's not charismatic what's the appeal?"
Silly woman.
Politics is about ideas not bone structure.
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/nigel-farage-who-are-you/4od
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
Someone on here yesterday was talking up Tory prospects in Derby North but I don't see it myself. Nick may have an opinion since the seat isn't far from Broxtowe.
Likewise defences
'Eight Government departments have spent a total of £274,481.16 so far on legal fees trying to prevent the release of Charles's letters, Attorney General Dominic Grieve has disclosed.'
http://tinyurl.com/p96y784
Another way of looking at it is to judge whether the Tories are actually making an effort, beyond direct mails and phone canvassing, which are useful but not enough on their own. Has anyone living in any of the target seats actually encountered Tory leaflets and canvassers recently?
http://www.andreajenkyns.co.uk/news/first-column-wakefield-express
Edit: Outside the Arndale, wanting to put the ConDems on the dole
Unlike the Nats and Eck.
I'm surprised that there haven't been mass demonstrations against The Times for publishing cartoons mocking The Chosen One.