politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be
There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme.
I can forgive the BBC showing a sub sample even if less than hundred participants but the fact that voting intentions add up to an overround Ladbrokes would be proud of means somebody should be sacked .What a load of rubbish for a state broadcaster
"We should not headline the results of an opinion poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll's findings is necessary to make sense of it"
"We should not use language which gives greater credibility to the polls than they deserve."
"If we have doubts about the methodology or the bona fides of those carrying out the poll, for example companies which are new or based abroad, we should either reflect that scepticism appropriately in the way we report the results, or we should consider whether the data is sufficiently credible for inclusion in BBC output."
"Where the results of an opinion poll appear out of line with expectations, or suggest something new or distinctive, we should take particular care to ensure that it does not receive undue weight in the absence of a reliable trend."
Honestly, whoever at the BBC produced this, deserved to be publicly horsewhipped then locked in a disused fridge with Peter Andre, then write a 20,000 word dissertation on the merits of AV over FPTP.
So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
Hmm. Not a tip (too early for me to tip it), but Rosberg at 3.25 with Ladbrokes to get pole is worthy of consideration. He beat Hamilton in qualifying at the circuit last year.
But France is in full retreat domestically. The Government must be shaken to the core by recent election results. And if a Miliband praised France is seen as the main barrier to a deal, that could play well for Dave even if he can't get much done.
Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 5 mins Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union
What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
But France is in full retreat domestically. The Government must be shaken to the core by recent election results. And if a Miliband praised France is seen as the main barrier to a deal, that could play well for Dave even if he can't get much done.
I rather think that President Hollande will have other rather pressing concerns in the lead up to April 2017, and that it will be his successor who has to agree any deal.
The figures, for what they are worth, show a decline of 10 for the Tories and 7 for the Lib Dems (if 7 is the correct score) from 2009, up 4 Labour and up 3 Greens., up 24 UKIP, presumably also at the expense of BNP and 'others' Gt Yarmouth nailed on Kipper gain 2015! I'd take 7 or so off the Kipper score and give it 4, 2 and 1 to Con, Lib, Lab and you won't be far off 2014
Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 5 mins Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union
What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
Union stays out fight for Union because it would destroy union (That's enough union - ed (no, not that one)).
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 5 mins Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union
What happened to PCS in the end? I remember a few people getting excited about whether they would back 'yes' after some big branches did but I never heard what they decided in the end.
They voted to stay neutral - 'In a branch vote18,025 members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union backed staying neutral, while 5,075 voted for the Yes position. There were no votes for the No position'.
I believe a lot of the No-ers voted for neutrality to be on the safe side.
I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
If it helps untangling the tongue twisters I believe (after a quick google) there are more unions campaigning for 'no' than 'yes' but most seem to have decided not to take a position.
I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
The 'Solidarity faction' is rather good too.
One of the (many, many) gifts that Tommy Sheridan's trial(s) gave us.
I'm going to be the best man at a gay wedding on May the 17th.
Interesting speech challenge....difficult to take the p*ss out of the groom....???
I've got that bit sorted.
"James and Leigh are going to the Seychelles for their honeymoon, I've had a look at the weather forecast, and James you should be getting a 4inches every night"
The poll is the usual bollox up from a slipping BBC.
However, Guido think that a reshuffle is in the offing, which is more interesting:
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 57m TORY WARS: Blues Should Read Their Bonaparte - “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”: http://bit.ly/1gkDNBp
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
During the Cold War the Berlin Wall was a potent symbol of the superiority of the West. The Eastern Bloc was so bad that they had to build a wall to keep people in.
I think it is a very bad sign that not long after the fall of the Berlin Wall people are seeking to erect barriers to keep people out.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
So Dave seems to have got Germany, Netherlands and Italy on board with his 'less EU / two speed EU' agitation. France, unsurprisingly, not.
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
The Conservatives on here are laughably credulous sometimes. One line from an Italian minister stating the vaguely worded "We want a better Europe, not more Europe" is them "being on board"? Seriously? It's the same with Germany. They're happy to give nice platitudes to Britain but are completely against unwinding any element of European integration.
I thought the Germans were airing some views that were a perfect reflection of those some hold here about several EU matters, including the sacred cow of freedom of movement and work. In the medium term, contrary to the expectations of many, there will be controls, sanctions and or quotas, and not just in the (r?)UK. In an unequal world with improved social security in affluent countries and ever easier transport, there is no alternative to the abolition of the right to move anywhere and claim anywhere.
During the Cold War the Berlin Wall was a potent symbol of the superiority of the West. The Eastern Bloc was so bad that they had to build a wall to keep people in.
Comrades! You should know full well that was naught but Western propaganda! The Wall was constructed to keep the Fascist Invader out
I can forgive the BBC showing a sub sample even if less than hundred participants but the fact that voting intentions add up to an overround Ladbrokes would be proud of means somebody should be sacked .What a load of rubbish for a state broadcaster
My other half has refused to get married because we had a civil partnership and so he "can't see the point" (expletives deleted). Which is a relief, because last time the ceremony was substantially paid from my 2010 election winnings, and I don't need that kind of pressure on me to perform as well in 2015.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
Oh you should, I'm really excited about it.
I've got something better than a wedding to look forward to this summer. No, I'm not pregnant.
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
I imagine the Department and the Registrar General are pretty busy at the moment implementing the main provisions of the 2013 Act. I suspect the consequential provisions will be brought into force shortly.
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
Have they sorted out the ludicrous situation whereby civil-partnered couples need to get "divorced" (or divorced) before they can get married, thus forcing those that want to do this to lie about why they want to separate?
The Secretary of State has the power, under s. 9 of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013, to make regulations allowing civil partners to covert their civil partnership into a marriage. The provision will enter into force on a date to be appointed by the Secretary of State.
Thx. Why wouldn't he have done this already?
How odd (and poor people). The Scots don't seem to have a problem with a direct upgrade without reboot.
Man Utd are best-priced at 6/1 to defeat Bayern tonight with the draw available at 4/1. Combining these two possible outcomes, the German side can be laid at odds of approx 2/1.
How odd (and poor people). The Scots don't seem to have a problem with a direct upgrade without reboot.
Under the Marriage (Scotland) Act 1977 (as to be amended by section 8 of the Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Act 2014 from a date to be appointed) civil partners will be able to marry each other in Scotland. However, they will be required to marry in the same way as any other couple to a regular marriage pursuant to sections 3 to 7 of the 1977 Act. One advantage of the English and Welsh legislation, it may be thought, is that it may allow existing civil partners, who have always considered themselves married de facto, to obtain that status de jure with less formality and with greater ease than contracting a separate civil marriage.
According to UKPR there's a margin of error of 13% with these figures so UKIP can say it puts them on at least 31% in the Eastern region which isn't bad.
According to UKPR there's a margin of error of 13% with these figures so UKIP can say it puts them on at least 31% in the Eastern region which isn't bad.
Looking at the sampling error along on these things paints a bit of a misleading picture. The true margin of error in YouGov figures is twice the sampling error, despite attempts to reduce it.
Having said that, if the national picture is mid- or high-20s, UKIP should be doing better in the East of England, so 31% isn't bad.
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
East Anglia is by all accounts UKIP's heartland, so I would certainly expect them to come top there, possibly very comfortably.
That Lib Dem share looks really off though? I wouldn't expect them to come close to equalling the Tories in any region, and the only region where I could see them beating Labour is the southwest.
In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.
Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.
East Anglia is by all accounts UKIP's heartland, so I would certainly expect them to come top there, possibly very comfortably.
That Lib Dem share looks really off though? I wouldn't expect them to come close to equalling the Tories in any region, and the only region where I could see them beating Labour is the southwest.
The real share - according to that crossbreak - was just 7% - the misreporting was why it didn't total 100%.
Looking at Ladbrokes constituency betting, I notice the Tories are 6/1 in Bath. That might be worth a bet, especially with Don Foster standing down. I would have set the odds at 4 or 5/1.
The Tories arent fielding a particularly great candidate in Bath. I would expect the LDs to hold on but, yeah, 6/1 seems very long.
Comments
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, speaking after talks with David Cameron at No 10: "We want a better Europe, not more Europe
Sounds good for Cameron this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/page/guidelines-politics-practices-opinion/
"We should not headline the results of an opinion poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll's findings is necessary to make sense of it"
"We should not use language which gives greater credibility to the polls than they deserve."
"If we have doubts about the methodology or the bona fides of those carrying out the poll, for example companies which are new or based abroad, we should either reflect that scepticism appropriately in the way we report the results, or we should consider whether the data is sufficiently credible for inclusion in BBC output."
"Where the results of an opinion poll appear out of line with expectations, or suggest something new or distinctive, we should take particular care to ensure that it does not receive undue weight in the absence of a reliable trend."
The East of England is definitely one of the heartlands of the blue-at-Westminster-purple-in-Europe group, though.
Think it was actually Twirl - a more wieldy form of Flake perhaps?
I hope @MikeSmithson will be writing in.
Plus of course Cam's main opponents France are all over the shop after the recent elections.
Paging Stuart Dickson ;-)
Then I found a clip of it.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gon7gNqYU4&feature=youtu.be&a
The other flaw is that the Sub-sample doesn't tie in with in the BBC region!
This one could be interesting to watch as it develops. I'm utterly skeptical that anything good or useful will come from it - but more power to his elbow.
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 5 mins
Len McCluskey admits Unite not opposing Scottish independence because it would split his union
We want less EU interference. They want more German money. You can see the outline of a deal here...
Another indication of a dearth of enthusiasm amongst Labour foot soldiers though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Panamax_ports#Europe
For that matter, I wonder if Unison are all singing off the same hymn sheet?
But France is in full retreat domestically. The Government must be shaken to the core by recent election results. And if a Miliband praised France is seen as the main barrier to a deal, that could play well for Dave even if he can't get much done.
http://tinyurl.com/34lw4l4
Volcanoes? Meteors? No, the worst mass extinction in history - The Great Dying - could have been caused by microbes having sex
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-great-dying-an-act-of-microbial-sex-led-to-worlds-biggest-mass-extinction-9226813.html
Gt Yarmouth nailed on Kipper gain 2015!
I'd take 7 or so off the Kipper score and give it 4, 2 and 1 to Con, Lib, Lab and you won't be far off 2014
Disunion in union over backing union because it may split union? This story is like peeling an onion
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546
...and forces to read a PB thread on HFT. Wrong. Simply wrong.
I believe a lot of the No-ers voted for neutrality to be on the safe side.
I'm surprised by that. Clearly the SSP (or is it the Solidarity faction, I cant remember) dont have as firm a grip on things up there as I gave them credit for.
Do you think Unison might not be speaking in unison on the union?
Help!!!
steve hawkes @steve_hawkes
PM David Cameron has just been asked by an Italian journalist- "pls tell us, what's the recipe for economic success?"
But there's one condition, I'm not allowed to go within 100 yards of the DJ.
He's available at 4/1 with Ladbrokes
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/specials/2014-specials/next-permanent-england-head-coach
Interesting speech challenge....difficult to take the p*ss out of the groom....???
Is this the same Peter Moores who was derided by KP for being rubbish, resulting in their both being sacked?
HAPPY APRIL FOOLS DAY !
"James and Leigh are going to the Seychelles for their honeymoon, I've had a look at the weather forecast, and James you should be getting a 4inches every night"
However, Guido think that a reshuffle is in the offing, which is more interesting:
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 57m
TORY WARS: Blues Should Read Their Bonaparte - “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”: http://bit.ly/1gkDNBp
Man United
English cricket
Ed Miliband.
We didn't have a best man. Neither of us was going to take the risk of being embarrassed.
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/yasmin-alibhai-brown-media-should-be.html
And its going to be unseasonably windy, blowing pretty hard apparently.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/01/Cleggs-private-partners-side-with-Putin-too
Pot calling kettle. But at least the kettle has steam.
With Douglas Alexander in the firing line, cui bono?
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/04/01/douglas-alexander-in-the-firing-line-cui-bono/
So clegg better keep Quiet on number of laws that come from Brussels and now putin ;-)
A child at Primary School should have realised immediately that the numbers could not possibly be right.
Everyone involved should be sacked, on the spot, for gross incompetence.
If they can get something so simple wrong, what else are they getting wrong?
It is a 100% credibility destroyer. No work done by the same people in the future can ever be trusted.
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/fact-checking-clegg-v-farage-eu-debate.html
If you look at the facts,farage was nearer the facts by this fact checking than 'look at the facts' clegg.
I think it is a very bad sign that not long after the fall of the Berlin Wall people are seeking to erect barriers to keep people out.
Comrades! You should know full well that was naught but Western propaganda! The Wall was constructed to keep the Fascist Invader out
Verdict: Technically true but highly misleading
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8974-bbc-scotland-referendum-output-set-to-be-monitored
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/03/28/maria-miller-couples-in-civil-partnerships-will-be-able-to-convert-them-to-marriages-by-the-end-of-the-year/
Edit: I see RN has answered the point already.
*mind bleach*
UKIP 4 (+2)
Con 1 (-2)
Lab 1 (nc)
Grn 1 (+1)
LD 0 (-1)
Having said that, if the national picture is mid- or high-20s, UKIP should be doing better in the East of England, so 31% isn't bad.
That Lib Dem share looks really off though? I wouldn't expect them to come close to equalling the Tories in any region, and the only region where I could see them beating Labour is the southwest.
In particular there is the suggestion that UKIP could do very well in rural Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire. I do not recall this area before suggested as an area of strength.
Its probably due to David Kendrick's (an occasional poster on here) impact!
Lab 2/5
Con 2/1
LD 25/1
UKIP 50/1
Mike Buchanan 100/1
https://m.ladbrokes.com/#!event_details?id=216773182