politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move t
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Depends on the lurid details. If there is an "eeeeuuuwwwwww....." element....nico67 said:Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.
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So my strategy of laying the old guys in this market is going well?
Didn’t want to win like this though.0 -
Yawn. Europeans always right, and Brits always wrong. Yeah, we get it.Foxy said:2 -
OK. We can toss that in the pot.Philip_Thompson said:A WA with a NI-only backstop that lasts 4 years but is renewable every 4 years [and will almost certainly be renewed] is probably better for them than a 5 years then it expires one.
But you get my drift.0 -
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Depends what price you've laid them atTheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the old guys in this market is going well?
Didn’t want to win like this though.
You should add Andrew Yang and Hillary Clinton to your lays if you haven't already done so.0 -
The point is that an agreement only on one side is no agreement at all.ozymandias said:
Yawn. Europeans always right, and Brits always wrong. Yeah, we get it.Foxy said:0 -
Warren's laying the young guys!TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the old guys in this market is going well?
Didn’t want to win like this though.0 -
You mean more eeeuwww than Trumps apparent goings on in Russia !MarqueeMark said:
Depends on the lurid details. If there is an "eeeeuuuwwwwww....." element....nico67 said:Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.
The campaign slogan for Warren should be . If can bang a bodybuilder I certainly have the stamina that’s needed for President !0 -
Is there actually an SI unit small enough to measure Trump's fuse?Foxy said:
Certainly not for my book!surbiton19 said:
Biden is gone. Not a bad thing.TrèsDifficile said:
I look forward to Warren Trump debates. She knows how to wind him up, and his fuse is shorter now.0 -
She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the top 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain centralVerulamius said:I see that the Lib Dems have new PPC for Chelsea and Fulham - Nicola Horlick
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-horlick-city-superwoman-unveiled-as-latest-highprofile-candidate-standing-for-lib-dems-in-a4253271.html0 -
Alarming report from France on multiple police officers killed by a knifeman:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49921145
I happened to see, and this is referenced in the link, that yesterday there was some sort of action (protest etc) at the high number of police suicides this year. I think the number I heard was 50.0 -
This might be the time to tell les Rosbifs to "fuck off out of Europe....no more extensions."HYUFD said:0 -
Could be a real "Pocahontas" moment. That'd be hilarious.MarqueeMark said:
Depends on the lurid details. If there is an "eeeeuuuwwwwww....." element....nico67 said:Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.
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He has now been shot dead, seems he was working inside the police HQMorris_Dancer said:Alarming report from France on multiple police officers killed by a knifeman:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49921145
I happened to see, and this is referenced in the link, that yesterday there was some sort of action (protest etc) at the high number of police suicides this year. I think the number I heard was 50.0 -
The Good Lady Wifi met her when Horlick was trying to set up a film fund.HYUFD said:
She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain centralVerulamius said:I see that the Lib Dems have new PPC for Chelsea and Fulham - Nicola Horlick
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-horlick-city-superwoman-unveiled-as-latest-highprofile-candidate-standing-for-lib-dems-in-a4253271.html
We'll leave it there.0 -
Are you suggesting she buried the hatchet?Pulpstar said:
Could be a real "Pocahontas" moment. That'd be hilarious.MarqueeMark said:
Depends on the lurid details. If there is an "eeeeuuuwwwwww....." element....nico67 said:Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.
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If the shoe were on the other foot, like say Trump's idiocy, do you think it's just a yawn fest? I really don't think everyone in the world is seeing a reality where Brexit Britain is going great and they just want to poo poo it. They see reality and they report the reality. We're the ones with a motive for self delusion.ozymandias said:
Yawn. Europeans always right, and Brits always wrong. Yeah, we get it.Foxy said:0 -
Amusing as the Warren story is, my instinct is it's a bit of fake news tbh.0
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"She likes to dress up in a Sioux war bonnet....."Pulpstar said:
Could be a real "Pocahontas" moment. That'd be hilarious.MarqueeMark said:
Depends on the lurid details. If there is an "eeeeuuuwwwwww....." element....nico67 said:Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.
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I cant imagine ever fancying a woman 40 years older than me. Do the elder partners in such relationships ever really believe inside that the physical attraction is reciprocal?Pulpstar said:Amusing as the Warren story is, my instinct is it's a bit of fake news tbh.
I suppose the elder person could be a 9/10 and the younger a 4/10 and that might level things up0 -
Looks like Warren will have the dog lovers vote sewn up if she gets the nomination against Trump.
Seriously, a not to be underestimated demographic, concentrated particularly amongst not so young women.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/10/01/elizabeth-warren-golden-retriever-dog-bailey-mh-orig.cnn0 -
Privet?Yellow_Submarine said:
It does look like Trump had genuine dirt on Biden and could have just taken out his strongest polling opponent. But he handled it so appallingly he created his version of the Nixon tapes as well.rottenborough said:0 -
Yep. Sounds like total crap.Pulpstar said:Amusing as the Warren story is, my instinct is it's a bit of fake news tbh.
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Ya think?!Pulpstar said:Amusing as the Warren story is, my instinct is it's a bit of fake news tbh.
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Well that;'s your opinion and you're perfectly entitled to hold it. Doesn't make it objectively correct. Everyone's reality, and what they deem to be reality or the reality of a situation is different.148grss said:
If the shoe were on the other foot, like say Trump's idiocy, do you think it's just a yawn fest? I really don't think everyone in the world is seeing a reality where Brexit Britain is going great and they just want to poo poo it. They see reality and they report the reality. We're the ones with a motive for self delusion.ozymandias said:
Yawn. Europeans always right, and Brits always wrong. Yeah, we get it.Foxy said:
That's the same for you, for me, everyone on PB and journalists who make a living on promoting their own reality.
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Should we be laying Warren?isam said:
Warren's laying the young guys!TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the old guys in this market is going well?
Didn’t want to win like this though.0 -
Must be a hedge fund!Peter_the_Punter said:
Privet?Yellow_Submarine said:
It does look like Trump had genuine dirt on Biden and could have just taken out his strongest polling opponent. But he handled it so appallingly he created his version of the Nixon tapes as well.rottenborough said:1 -
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Genius idea to get Bailey out on the trail.Wulfrun_Phil said:Looks like Warren will have the dog lovers vote sewn up if she gets the nomination against Trump.
Seriously, a not to be underestimated demographic, concentrated particularly amongst not so young women.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/10/01/elizabeth-warren-golden-retriever-dog-bailey-mh-orig.cnn0 -
"A lot of work still needs to be done" - Sounds like EU speak for there's a deal to be done here.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179517577963290624?s=200 -
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:1 -
Will you post the outcome if the party overwhelmingly backs them to remain Jim?HYUFD said:
No I didn’t think you would.
Two former Tory Chancellors say hi to you, by the way.0 -
Apologies for the aftertiming but on Warren,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-2020-presidential-campaign-dna-test-boston-democrats-a8704541.html
Back end of last year/start of this one was the time to back her when her price was big and the news surrounding her was poor.
Just checking Betfair, back end of April 20-1 for the nomination.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, I was late to the party, but in August Warren could still be backed at around 8.5, which covered a potential red spot for me.0
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I’m confident Labour will not have war gamed Boris getting a deal, such a thing was thought impossible, so will be caught completely with their pants down.MarqueeMark said:
If Boris gets a deal, the smart thing for Corbyn is to whip an abstention.egg said:Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.
Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?
Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?
Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?
Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.
Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?
We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions
Keeps his Party together. Gives him a line to use in the election.
"This is a Tory Brexit. Everything that goes wrong in our country after we have left the EU lies at the door of the Tories. Every lost job, every lost opportunity, every dashed dream - blame the Tories..."
But neither is there a deal yet. There’s too much hubris because there’s still questions questions yea more questions around the viability of this proposal0 -
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Wow, that's about as positive as you'll get from Barnier. Definitely a deal there to be done.GIN1138 said:"A lot of work still needs to be done" - Sounds like EU speak for there's a deal to be done here.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179517577963290624?s=200 -
That's very funny. No need to get your coat.Benpointer said:
Must be a hedge fund!Peter_the_Punter said:
Privet?Yellow_Submarine said:
It does look like Trump had genuine dirt on Biden and could have just taken out his strongest polling opponent. But he handled it so appallingly he created his version of the Nixon tapes as well.rottenborough said:0 -
DougSeal said:
No. I think they know this isn’t a flier. You suggested on the last thread that the EU would bung the Irish a bit of cash and all would be well and they would accept. Again, this is not just about economics. The customs/border checks issue means as much over there as “sovereignty” does to you - day to day you might not notice changes in either but they rankle all the same.
No doubt. But would they prefer no-deal? That means a proper hard border, and probably for an extended period.
We're reaching the end of the road soon - maybe Johnson gets turfed out and it's not a situation we'll face, maybe a referendum and it all gets overturned. But … maybe not.
Seems to me an awful lot of people are willing to gamble.
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Perhaps, but that isn't going to be THIS October.GIN1138 said:"A lot of work still needs to be done" - Sounds like EU speak for there's a deal to be done here.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179517577963290624?s=20
Johnson has said do or die by 31st October. Did he ever specify which year? Because I can see the EU saying 'The beginnings of a deal here... let's talk formally, after granting you a year long extension."
And then Johnson is finished........0 -
In regards to the header: the big thing is impeachment. Lots of people are talking about how this effects Trump and will Biden get slimed in the process, but the other thing to consider is how this eats into Biden's USP. If this becomes a body hit for Trump, with the Senate not removing him but his favourability slipping down to the mid to high 30s rather than the low to mid 40s, Biden is no longer the "only person" who can beat Trump. African American voters, noticeably more conservative in their primary choices because they understand more so than white liberals the need to try and placate white conservatives (as they are more a subject of their ire), may then feel more able to go with other candidates.
Many people also ignore that delegates are given out proportionally by state to any candidate that gets above 15% of the vote. In caucus states they do this by doing the first round, as it were, and then allowing those above 15% to convince all those who didn't get past the threshold to support their candidate instead, and in other states they do this by proportionally giving delegates above the threshold. So we could be in a position where Biden gets 40% of all delegates, but Sanders and Warren get 60% between them and one of them drops out and endorses the other (I think Sanders is more likely to drop out in favour of Warren as she is the more acceptable candidate to Democratic politicians) and they get 55-60% of delegates to Biden's 40-45%.0 -
It is that misconception that means Brexit is likely to fail.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:0 -
Sorry if this is out of date, I'm a bit behind with my reading of The Weeks-
One Trump is quite enough, thank you - Brian Boyle
(Via The Week via Los Angeles Times)
If US politics were not in enough of a mess already we now seem to have a liberal version of Donald Trump on our hands. One of the breakouts starts of the recent second round of Democrat primary debates - judging by the volume of Google searches and chatter on Twitter - was the celebrity self-help guru Marianne Williamson. She proved herself to be, like the president, a gifted communicator who is good at tapping into the ill-defined existential fears of her group, and "presents herself and her own spiritual gut instinct as the sole path to salvation". She drew "thunderous applause" at one point, for instance, when she lamented that "wonkiness" (i.e. political savvy) of Democrat leaders was insufficient to deal with the "dark psychic force of the collectivised hatred that this president is brining up in this country". Her Success in the debate is worrying. This is a woman, after all, with "a history of anti-science, anti-vaccination rhetoric". She believes Aids and cancer are the "physical manifestation of a psychic scream". Fear not, many might say: she's an entertaining celebrity kook with zero chance of winning the nomination. Well, they said the same of Trump once, and look how that turned out.-1 -
Anecdotal re St Albans - my mother who lives there went for lunch yesterday with a group of 7 other women. All retirees, remainers, broadly conservative types. Seems my mother was the only one who was aware that Anne Main had always supported Brexit. Others were taken aback. Which on the one hand points to an opportunity for Daisy Cooper, but on the other is a reminder that we on here are a lot more familiar with minutiae than the general population. Would suggest Daisy gets a tight message together on the private schools though, as the prospect of a Corbyn government closing the likes of STAHS, the Abbey school, Habs and Columba's seems to have aggravated a number of local grandparents.Verulamius said:I see that the Lib Dems have new PPC for Chelsea and Fulham - Nicola Horlick
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-horlick-city-superwoman-unveiled-as-latest-highprofile-candidate-standing-for-lib-dems-in-a4253271.html0 -
This is the Swedish PM's "reality":
"Swedish PM Stefan Löfven says it is possible to get a deal agreed between the UK and EU by the end of October deadline.
He told the press conference, "It is possible of course, or we wouldn't work on it".
He adds: "The EU is right now making the analysis, and there are some question marks raised by President Juncker and [Mr Varadkar].
"We can see the same kind of question marks but this is possible. Let's really make make an effort."
Mr Löfven also said any extension to the Brexit deadline "depends on the reason".
He adds: "What are we waiting for? If an extension [is requested] we will look at the reason."
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Guardian reporting it was a staff member (shot by police) possibly with a grudge. Apparently he used a ceramic knife which prolly got through security.AndyJS said:"Paris police attack: 'Four killed' by knife-wielding man"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/499211450 -
Two former Tory Chancellors were expelled for voting against a three-line-whip were they'd been told that'd be the punishment in advance of the vote.egg said:
Will you post the outcome if the party overwhelmingly backs them to remain Jim?HYUFD said:
No I didn’t think you would.
Two former Tory Chancellors say hi to you, by the way.
Not because of racism.0 -
I think the calculation is that they will not sacrifice long term strategy because of what they see as short term pain. Sound familiar?Andrew said:DougSeal said:No. I think they know this isn’t a flier. You suggested on the last thread that the EU would bung the Irish a bit of cash and all would be well and they would accept. Again, this is not just about economics. The customs/border checks issue means as much over there as “sovereignty” does to you - day to day you might not notice changes in either but they rankle all the same.
No doubt. But would they prefer no-deal? That means a proper hard border, and probably for an extended period.
We're reaching the end of the road soon - maybe Johnson gets turfed out and it's not a situation we'll face, maybe a referendum and it all gets overturned. But … maybe not.
Seems to me an awful lot of people are willing to gamble.0 -
That's the odds I got on at.Pulpstar said:Apologies for the aftertiming but on Warren,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-2020-presidential-campaign-dna-test-boston-democrats-a8704541.html
Back end of last year/start of this one was the time to back her when her price was big and the news surrounding her was poor.
Just checking Betfair, back end of April 20-1 for the nomination.
Both sanders and Biden were too old and Harris too dull. Warren was the obvious choice, though I did rather like Klobuchar too.
I can see Mayor Pete as VP to balance the ticket.0 -
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:2 -
+1Nigel_Foremain said:
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:0 -
See, this is where this post modern bullshit turns up. Like, people on the right love calling the left snowflakes, and saying facts don't care about your feelings, but then there is an entire culture of saying "well, that's just your opinion" on things which are pretty easy to demonstrate.ozymandias said:
Well that;'s your opinion and you're perfectly entitled to hold it. Doesn't make it objectively correct. Everyone's reality, and what they deem to be reality or the reality of a situation is different.148grss said:
If the shoe were on the other foot, like say Trump's idiocy, do you think it's just a yawn fest? I really don't think everyone in the world is seeing a reality where Brexit Britain is going great and they just want to poo poo it. They see reality and they report the reality. We're the ones with a motive for self delusion.ozymandias said:
Yawn. Europeans always right, and Brits always wrong. Yeah, we get it.Foxy said:
That's the same for you, for me, everyone on PB and journalists who make a living on promoting their own reality.
Is Britain in a political crisis over Brexit? Yes.
Does that suggest Brexit is going well? No.
Is the PM putting forward plans that meet the criteria agreed by the previous PM and the EU? No
Do experts suggest that shit will hit the fan big time in event of No Deal? Yes.
Do the answers to the above make the outcomes 100% certain? No, but nothing is, we have to base all our views on the available evidence.
Is the Sun going to rise tomorrow? Yes. "Well, that's just your opinion, man, because what if it explodes due to a thing it is impossible for humans to detect" is no way to respond.
We cannot all live in our own pocket reality, that is the exact sort of thing that leads to civil wars and revolutions.0 -
Or it reflects the opinion of just one Putin lover poster here.Nigel_Foremain said:
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:
Categorising half the country based on one political view is patronising and small minded.2 -
The US Dem market (Predictit) has the following prices (It's barely playable with all of its awful extra charges mind)
Warren 1.92
Biden 4.54
Yang 8.33
Sanders 12.5
Buttigieg 12.5
Clinton 16.7
Harris 25.0
Gabbard 25.0
Booker 50.0
Klobuchar 50.0
O 'Rourke 50.0
Bloomberg 50.0
Steyer 50.00 -
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First. As in the first person who was ramping Warren on here.0
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Of course it is possible to make "a deal" before October, because, as the Swedish PM makes it pretty clear, he's just saying that the entire point of this exercise is to get a deal. He is not saying what deal can pass before October.ozymandias said:This is the Swedish PM's "reality":
"Swedish PM Stefan Löfven says it is possible to get a deal agreed between the UK and EU by the end of October deadline.
He told the press conference, "It is possible of course, or we wouldn't work on it".
He adds: "The EU is right now making the analysis, and there are some question marks raised by President Juncker and [Mr Varadkar].
"We can see the same kind of question marks but this is possible. Let's really make make an effort."
Mr Löfven also said any extension to the Brexit deadline "depends on the reason".
He adds: "What are we waiting for? If an extension [is requested] we will look at the reason."
If parliament passed the May before October, the EU would say that's fine. Did the Swedish PM say it would be possible to pass Johnson's suggestions before October? No.0 -
Booker and O'Rourke too long in my opinion particularly with the storms surrounding the top 3. Yang ???Pulpstar said:The US Dem market (Predictit) has the following prices (It's barely playable with all of its awful extra charges mind)
Warren 1.92
Biden 4.54
Yang 8.33
Sanders 12.5
Buttigieg 12.5
Clinton 16.7
Harris 25.0
Gabbard 25.0
Booker 50.0
Klobuchar 50.0
O 'Rourke 50.0
Bloomberg 50.0
Steyer 50.0
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Have we moved from MILF to GILF?0
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Well unfortuantely the backstop is unacceptable to Parliament so a "sixth way" needs to be found.williamglenn said: 1 -
As a Remainer myself, I do think BOTH sides need to dial back this language.Nigel_Foremain said:
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:
In my experience, the "average leave supporter" is a perfectly pleasant person who feels leaving the EU will make Britain more able to act independently via institutions which are more accountable to the public without appreciable negative economic impact.
I disagree with that position on the basis I believe we'll lose influence within Europe, and be more susceptible to global forces beyond our control. I also think we would be better seeking to reform domestic and EU institutions to make them more accountable (both need a lot of work) and that the economic consequences will be substantial. But it's an honest disagreement between decent people - the "average leave supporter" is very much like me but with a different view.
Finally, I anyway very much doubt that online comments by those motivated to make them are likely to be representative of the "average leave voter" or indeed "average remain voter".2 -
Can the Mayor carry Indiana ? I doubt it. O'Rourke has to be the VP candidate to make sure Texas is taken seriously.Foxy said:
That's the odds I got on at.Pulpstar said:Apologies for the aftertiming but on Warren,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-2020-presidential-campaign-dna-test-boston-democrats-a8704541.html
Back end of last year/start of this one was the time to back her when her price was big and the news surrounding her was poor.
Just checking Betfair, back end of April 20-1 for the nomination.
Both sanders and Biden were too old and Harris too dull. Warren was the obvious choice, though I did rather like Klobuchar too.
I can see Mayor Pete as VP to balance the ticket.
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Very encouraging.ozymandias said:This is the Swedish PM's "reality":
"Swedish PM Stefan Löfven says it is possible to get a deal agreed between the UK and EU by the end of October deadline.
He told the press conference, "It is possible of course, or we wouldn't work on it".
He adds: "The EU is right now making the analysis, and there are some question marks raised by President Juncker and [Mr Varadkar].
"We can see the same kind of question marks but this is possible. Let's really make make an effort."
Mr Löfven also said any extension to the Brexit deadline "depends on the reason".
He adds: "What are we waiting for? If an extension [is requested] we will look at the reason."0 -
None of them are happening. Including the backstop.williamglenn said:0 -
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.0 -
Better (from Irish point of view?) than united Ireland and better than UK staying in EU?williamglenn said:0 -
England could leave the UK?GIN1138 said:
Well unfortuantely the backstop is unacceptable to Parliament so a "sixth way" needs to be found.williamglenn said:0 -
Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.0
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Optimum option for everyone is, of course, Ireland rejoining the UK.Selebian said:
Better (from Irish point of view?) than united Ireland and better than UK staying in EU?williamglenn said:0 -
moonshine said:
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Despite the preconceptions of many on here he is taking into account the democratically expressed wishes of his neighbours. His own country’s history is full of attempts to keep a nation in a union against its will. If the U.K. were to change its mind then that’s a different matter.Selebian said:
Better (from Irish point of view?) than united Ireland and better than UK staying in EU?williamglenn said:0 -
I think Mayor Pete is articulate but inexperienced at National politics.surbiton19 said:
Can the Mayor carry Indiana ? I doubt it. O'Rourke has to be the VP candidate to make sure Texas is taken seriously.Foxy said:
That's the odds I got on at.Pulpstar said:Apologies for the aftertiming but on Warren,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-2020-presidential-campaign-dna-test-boston-democrats-a8704541.html
Back end of last year/start of this one was the time to back her when her price was big and the news surrounding her was poor.
Just checking Betfair, back end of April 20-1 for the nomination.
Both sanders and Biden were too old and Harris too dull. Warren was the obvious choice, though I did rather like Klobuchar too.
I can see Mayor Pete as VP to balance the ticket.
He balances the ticket by being reassuringly centrist, ex military and from the Midwest. I think this matters more than geography. Trump did carry the flyover states without having roots there.0 -
Calculator? The votes need to be counted148grss said:Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.
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I wouldn't have believed she had it in her. Now, WOW ? Go girl, go !Pulpstar said:Amusing as the Warren story is, my instinct is it's a bit of fake news tbh.
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Is there not a site that will do that for me if I just put in people's votes, calculate threshold, etc etcJBriskinindyref2 said:
Calculator? The votes need to be counted148grss said:Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.
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Stephanie Powers was 42. Maybe around 33 years is acceptable!isam said:0 -
She was 50 when I was 10 and I was thinking the same thing.isam said:0 -
It is what is unspoken that represents a compromise.DougSeal said:moonshine said:Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Which of Varadkar’s six options represents a compromise?0 -
Okay, valid query I guess - I doubt it.148grss said:
Is there not a site that will do that for me if I just put in people's votes, calculate threshold, etc etcJBriskinindyref2 said:
Calculator? The votes need to be counted148grss said:Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.
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Huh?Philip_Thompson said:
It is what is unspoken that represents a compromise.DougSeal said:moonshine said:Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Which of Varadkar’s six options represents a compromise?0 -
I have it all on an excel sheet, and just want something quick to sort it out.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay, valid query I guess - I doubt it.148grss said:
Is there not a site that will do that for me if I just put in people's votes, calculate threshold, etc etcJBriskinindyref2 said:
Calculator? The votes need to be counted148grss said:Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.
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Here’s one I found via google.148grss said:Anyone know a good AV calculator? I gave my office the option to rank their Christmas Lunch choices, so want to find the winner through AV.
https://petertheone.github.io/IRV/1 -
Predictit overround is ~ 20%, in additionsurbiton19 said:
Booker and O'Rourke too long in my opinion particularly with the storms surrounding the top 3. Yang ???Pulpstar said:The US Dem market (Predictit) has the following prices (It's barely playable with all of its awful extra charges mind)
Warren 1.92
Biden 4.54
Yang 8.33
Sanders 12.5
Buttigieg 12.5
Clinton 16.7
Harris 25.0
Gabbard 25.0
Booker 50.0
Klobuchar 50.0
O 'Rourke 50.0
Bloomberg 50.0
Steyer 50.0
Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit. There is no fee if you sell your shares at the same price that you paid or at a lower price.
There is no charge to open a PredictIt account or to deposit funds.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals.
So if were to deposit $900 buy 1000 Yang "No" at 90 c then sell them for 100c ($100 profit) you'd pay 10% (Profit of $90)
Then to withdraw your $990 you'd pay another $49.50 leaving a profit of $40.50 for $900 stake, which equates to a price of 22.2.
The maths for Clinton "No" sales works out at a 'true' lay price of 218.0 after fees.
The rake for Predictit is absolubtely off the charts.0 -
See, this is where this post modern bullshit turns up. Like, people on the right love calling the left snowflakes, and saying facts don't care about your feelings, but then there is an entire culture of saying "well, that's just your opinion" on things which are pretty easy to demonstrate.
Is Britain in a political crisis over Brexit? Yes.
Does that suggest Brexit is going well? No.
Is the PM putting forward plans that meet the criteria agreed by the previous PM and the EU? No
Do experts suggest that shit will hit the fan big time in event of No Deal? Yes.
Do the answers to the above make the outcomes 100% certain? No, but nothing is, we have to base all our views on the available evidence.
Is the Sun going to rise tomorrow? Yes. "Well, that's just your opinion, man, because what if it explodes due to a thing it is impossible for humans to detect" is no way to respond.
We cannot all live in our own pocket reality, that is the exact sort of thing that leads to civil wars and revolutions.
Wars , civil wars and revolutions are (predominately) caused by one party seeking to enforce their views on others not willing to accede to those views. As is religious extremism.
Stable societies depend on the overwhelming agreement of individuals in that society to the tenets by which they live by.This is especially true for laws, definition of crimes and morality. Five hundred years ago it was commonly accepted that heresy deserved burning at the stake. We don't any more because the overwhelming majority don't believe it is acceptable.
As little as 50 years ago it was not socially acceptable to be homosexual, or even a single mother. It is now.
These are subjective views. They change, evolve and depend on common agreement and acquiescence. If you have no common agreement among the overwhelming majority of individuals, and one group imposes on another in extremeis you get Civil War.
The Sun rising is a facile example and you know it. It s commonly accepted it will and it is demonstrably true. People who don't think it will are entitled to their opinion. But when it does rise they are proved wrong. Every day. Until the day when it doesn't and they are proved right. And one day it won't rise. It's just a very (very) long time from now.
Nothing about Brexit is demonstrably true predominately due to the fact it hasn't happened so no one knows - save it is taking a lot of political time and argument.
People can speculate, but that's all it is. Speculation. I wish it wasn't happening but it is. Shit happens.
It's evidently pointless discussing this with you as you cannot seem to separate objective facts with subjective views.
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Couple of things... first, I think it a mistake to assume that African Americans are particularly liberal as a block (and also to assume they are a single voting block).148grss said:In regards to the header: the big thing is impeachment. Lots of people are talking about how this effects Trump and will Biden get slimed in the process, but the other thing to consider is how this eats into Biden's USP. If this becomes a body hit for Trump, with the Senate not removing him but his favourability slipping down to the mid to high 30s rather than the low to mid 40s, Biden is no longer the "only person" who can beat Trump. African American voters, noticeably more conservative in their primary choices because they understand more so than white liberals the need to try and placate white conservatives (as they are more a subject of their ire), may then feel more able to go with other candidates.
Many people also ignore that delegates are given out proportionally by state to any candidate that gets above 15% of the vote. In caucus states they do this by doing the first round, as it were, and then allowing those above 15% to convince all those who didn't get past the threshold to support their candidate instead, and in other states they do this by proportionally giving delegates above the threshold. So we could be in a position where Biden gets 40% of all delegates, but Sanders and Warren get 60% between them and one of them drops out and endorses the other (I think Sanders is more likely to drop out in favour of Warren as she is the more acceptable candidate to Democratic politicians) and they get 55-60% of delegates to Biden's 40-45%.
Secondly, Saunders might well drop out before the primaries begin.
And is Biden really going to hang on to 40% + of the vote ?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
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+1SirNorfolkPassmore said:
As a Remainer myself, I do think BOTH sides need to dial back this language.Nigel_Foremain said:
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.Luckyguy1983 said:
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.williamglenn said:
In my experience, the "average leave supporter" is a perfectly pleasant person who feels leaving the EU will make Britain more able to act independently via institutions which are more accountable to the public without appreciable negative economic impact.
I disagree with that position on the basis I believe we'll lose influence within Europe, and be more susceptible to global forces beyond our control. I also think we would be better seeking to reform domestic and EU institutions to make them more accountable (both need a lot of work) and that the economic consequences will be substantial. But it's an honest disagreement between decent people - the "average leave supporter" is very much like me but with a different view.
Finally, I anyway very much doubt that online comments by those motivated to make them are likely to be representative of the "average leave voter" or indeed "average remain voter".0 -
Quite. You need to watch the whole series of exchanges in context to get the message.Philip_Thompson said:
It is what is unspoken that represents a compromise.DougSeal said:moonshine said:Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Which of Varadkar’s six options represents a compromise?0 -
Out of context, that sounds quite deep...Philip_Thompson said:
It is what is unspoken that represents a compromise.DougSeal said:moonshine said:Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Which of Varadkar’s six options represents a compromise?0 -
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween0
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What do I have to be smoking at the same time?moonshine said:
Quite. You need to watch the whole series of exchanges in context to get the message.Philip_Thompson said:
It is what is unspoken that represents a compromise.DougSeal said:moonshine said:Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
Which of Varadkar’s six options represents a compromise?0 -
Horlick's ability to manage the press is far in excess of her ability to make money for her clients.MarqueeMark said:
The Good Lady Wifi met her when Horlick was trying to set up a film fund.HYUFD said:
She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain centralVerulamius said:I see that the Lib Dems have new PPC for Chelsea and Fulham - Nicola Horlick
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-horlick-city-superwoman-unveiled-as-latest-highprofile-candidate-standing-for-lib-dems-in-a4253271.html
We'll leave it there.
She's a very nice lady (close friend of my uncle's) but not the "superwoman" she is made out to be.0 -
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.dyedwoolie said:Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.0
