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Comments
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Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
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Um, excuse me.OblitusSumMe said:
I prefer the Second British Empire to the first. Since the awfulness of British PMs has been so often compared to Eden recently, they may as well retake Suez as a prelude to liberating Hong Kong and bringing peace to the Indian subcontinent by uniting them underdyedwoolie said:
Actually Manhattan is doable if we retake Canada and spring a surprise New England offensive. Berlin will be easy. Just like 45. Then we can think about having a proper crack at Moscownichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
the yoke of British oppressionour benevolent rule. We could take Réunion again for old times sake.0 -
The Dutch still have Surinam don't they?Charles said:
Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
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I'll happily hear both of their views, There are no Titans.ozymandias said:
Intellectual titans of our age.HYUFD said:0 -
Independent since 1975Foxy said:
The Dutch still have Surinam don't they?Charles said:
Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
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The election of the speaker would not prevent a dissolution but IMO the opposition parties will want to see that done before an election, just in case. It's a very important decision and they would not want to risk leaving it until after the election.justin124 said:
No - the election of a Speaker is irrelevant . It would not prevent a Dissolution - but be rescheduled for when Parliament reassembles.anothernick said:
No. The extension has to be secured and legislation giving effect to it has to be passed. And the election of the new speaker is set for 4th November. I think the opposition will want to wait for that. So the very earliest a motion for an election could pass is 5th November and the earliest Thursday on which an election could take place is December 12th.OblitusSumMe said:
I think it's crazy short. Assuming the election is on a Thursday the latest would be November 28th, and the latest that could be called is five weeks previously on October 24th.rottenborough said:
Seems crazy long to me. But what the hell do I know.Benpointer said:
Apols, being a non-betting type... You mean crazy long or crazy short?rottenborough said:
Crazy. I have topped up.AlastairMeeks said:A November 2019 election is trading at 5.8 on Betfair now.
If that were to happen following a VONC, and a failure to agree on a replacement PM, then the VONC would have to be held no later than October 10th. But I see no reason why a VONC would be called before the Benn Act date of 19th October, unless the Opposition had agreed on a replacement PM.
There isn't the time.0 -
I hope you are selling LD seats on the spread betting markets. The current sell level is 47 seats so if you are right about 30 you'd make 17 times your stake level.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
SURVATION SEP 25
Leave 45%
Remain 51%
Don't know 4%
This is not the time to give up. Victory is almost there.0 -
What a complete waste of time that will be.HYUFD said:0 -
Just as a matter of interest, how much better than the spreads did the LDs do last time?MikeSmithson said:
I hope you are selling LD seats on the spread betting markets. The current sell level is 47 seats so if you are right about 30 you'd make 17 times your stake level.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
bigjohnowls said:
Sky News
@SkyNews
· 21h
.@LibDems leader @joswinson is vetoing a plan - backed by the other parties - to install @jeremycorbyn as a temporary prime minister if @borisjohnson is defeated in a vote of no confidence
Sky News obsessed with Tory Swinson plan to allow a No Deal Brexit obsessed i tell you
Do you have that phrase as a shortcut on your phone? Next to “Diehard Remainers”?HYUFD said:
Boris will resign as PM rather than agree an extensionanothernick said:
But a VONC can only pass with opposition support - they will not support one if they don't want an election. And only a VONC moved by the LOTO using the FTPA wording can bring down the government. The government cannot VONC itself.nichomar said:
That would be quite amusing, but it is out of their hands if VONC passed they can’t stop an electionanothernick said:
Quite. The opposition are not going to allow an election to be called before 31 October and if Johnson has been forced to extend at that point then the Tories will not allow an election to be called in the immediate aftermath. Farage will be in full betrayal mode and the fallout of Johnson reneging on "do or die" will be all around us.Noo said:I don't think Labour's numbers are necessarily problematic. That 26% for "neither" could be a huge asset in an election campaign.
Many of us on here are obsessed about Brexit -- I include myself in that -- but lots of folks out there aren't and have other policy concerns.
Labour might be playing this just right even they can get the conversation onto other subjects during a campaign. Set-piece debates might help on that front, since there will be questions about various policy areas from the hosts and selected from the audience. My hunch is that the broadcasters will want to keep the debates as good-tempered as possible, meaning Brexit could be de-emphasised.
Let's see whether there's even an election first though.
If Johnson is forced to extend, which seems very likely, it is quite possible that he will remain in office for some time afterwards. You can easily see why it would be in the interests of the opposition to leave him marooned while Farage mops up Tory voters.0 -
I do hope the LDs at least score 57 seats. Then they would be back at 2010 levels. Still well short of the Great Charlie Kennedy.MikeSmithson said:
I hope you are selling LD seats on the spread betting markets. The current sell level is 47 seats so if you are right about 30 you'd make 17 times your stake level.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
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Why? A November election expires unless one is called in the next three weeks.Andy_JS said:The fact that a December 2019 election is much more popular on Betfair Exchange than a November 2019 election is completely bonkers IMO.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1548491350 -
viewcode said:
Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
Maybe they spoke on the phone?0 -
Well lets not hope we get a mix of maths and geography. Diane asking about where funding for the needed 100 million new border officers is coming from, and Dominic confirming they will be deployed to the UK/Thai border.Omnium said:
I'll happily hear both of their views, There are no Titans.ozymandias said:
Intellectual titans of our age.HYUFD said:0 -
I believe they use Google Meet.DougSeal said:viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
Maybe they spoke on the phone?0 -
I prefer the 1% who think the Brexit Party is neither pro-Brexit nor anti-Brexit but were sure enough to not say "don't know".DougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
I want to understand their thought processes. Do they think the conversation goes something like this?
"We're the Brexit Party"
"What's your position on Brexit?"
"We don't have one! We're just not that bothered about Brexit!!!!"0 -
Might it help if the PM and cabinet were either in Westminster or Brussels rather than staffing money against the wall in Manchester?SquareRoot said:
They should of course but it would be far more effective if Brexit was sorted, No one gives a flying fuck at the moment if the HOC is scrutinising the Treasury..they want the feckers to sort Brexit out. Period.Gallowgate said:
You don’t think Parliament should be doing its constitutional role of scrutinising the Government?SquareRoot said:
Oh I am sure they are plotting behind the scenes, HOC right now is just a front. I don't agree with Brexit, but it must happen and v soon.Gallowgate said:
Well Boris hasn’t brought back his wonderful deal yet so what do you expect them to do?SquareRoot said:Gallowgate said:
I will repeat if you didn’t quite manage to read it:SquareRoot said:
If you consider obfuscating the will of the people doing their job then yes, if not, its appalling.Gallowgate said:
As you can’t be bothered to look yourself.TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
1. Scrutinised the Treasury.
2. Scrutinised the Government’s plans for the Irish border.
3. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the homeless.
4. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the war in Yemen.
5. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on agriculture after Brexit.
Basically doing their job.
1. Scrutinised the Treasury.
2. Scrutinised the Government’s plans for the Irish border.
3. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the homeless.
4. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the war in Yemen.
5. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on agriculture after Brexit.
Doing their job basically.
Pretty much anything but dealing with Brexit then...0 -
Everyone should be silly a little of the time.Charles said:
Um, excuse me.OblitusSumMe said:
I prefer the Second British Empire to the first. Since the awfulness of British PMs has been so often compared to Eden recently, they may as well retake Suez as a prelude to liberating Hong Kong and bringing peace to the Indian subcontinent by uniting them underdyedwoolie said:
Actually Manhattan is doable if we retake Canada and spring a surprise New England offensive. Berlin will be easy. Just like 45. Then we can think about having a proper crack at Moscownichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
the yoke of British oppressionour benevolent rule. We could take Réunion again for old times sake.0 -
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.0 -
Speculation at this stage about the outcome of the next GE is utterly pointless, if seductively fascinating; so much could happen before polling day, and indeed before a GE is even called.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.0 -
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
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I wonder if one of them got kicked out waiting in the lobby!rcs1000 said:
I believe they use Google Meet.DougSeal said:viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
Maybe they spoke on the phone?0 -
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?0 -
It has often happened immediately following an election. Examples are Betty Boothroyd in 1992 and Bernard Weatherill in 1983.anothernick said:
The election of the speaker would not prevent a dissolution but IMO the opposition parties will want to see that done before an election, just in case. It's a very important decision and they would not want to risk leaving it until after the election.justin124 said:
No - the election of a Speaker is irrelevant . It would not prevent a Dissolution - but be rescheduled for when Parliament reassembles.anothernick said:
No. The extension has to be secured and legislation giving effect to it has to be passed. And the election of the new speaker is set for 4th November. I think the opposition will want to wait for that. So the very earliest a motion for an election could pass is 5th November and the earliest Thursday on which an election could take place is December 12th.OblitusSumMe said:
I think it's crazy short. Assuming the election is on a Thursday the latest would be November 28th, and the latest that could be called is five weeks previously on October 24th.rottenborough said:
Seems crazy long to me. But what the hell do I know.Benpointer said:
Apols, being a non-betting type... You mean crazy long or crazy short?rottenborough said:
Crazy. I have topped up.AlastairMeeks said:A November 2019 election is trading at 5.8 on Betfair now.
If that were to happen following a VONC, and a failure to agree on a replacement PM, then the VONC would have to be held no later than October 10th. But I see no reason why a VONC would be called before the Benn Act date of 19th October, unless the Opposition had agreed on a replacement PM.
There isn't the time.0 -
0
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I never bet!MikeSmithson said:
I hope you are selling LD seats on the spread betting markets. The current sell level is 47 seats so if you are right about 30 you'd make 17 times your stake level.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
To be fair the DUP have always been a bit like that 😉rottenborough said:What a lovely country we have become.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/11791205243765800960 -
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
Because I think politicians on all sides will still do everything they can to avoid having a general election in either December or January. If it doesn't happen in November it'll be pushed back to February at the earliest IMO.Casino_Royale said:
Why? A November election expires unless one is called in the next three weeks.Andy_JS said:The fact that a December 2019 election is much more popular on Betfair Exchange than a November 2019 election is completely bonkers IMO.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1548491350 -
UNS is far from perfect - but I would not expect it to be too far out. Remember that in February 1974 the Liberals polled over 19% - and ended up on 14 seats.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?0 -
Why don’t you like the Monarchy ?Anabobazina said:
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
I disagree, they should get to 30 seats easily.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
More to the point, in places like Hampstead or Cambridge, the LibDems are confronted by Ultra-Remain Labour MPs.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
Like Justin, I just don't see many LibDem gains from Labour.
They may get 15 or 20 from the Tories, possibly.1 -
"He's attempting re-entry!"Anabobazina said:
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
With an overall majority Boris' government will deliver something you don't want.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
So both in Germany then...viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender0 -
Spurs 2 - 😂😂😂😂😂😂 Bayern Munich0
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What's that?TOPPING said:
With an overall majority Boris' government will deliver something you don't want.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
Not quiteCharles said:
So both in Germany then...viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender0 -
Sorry 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂0
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A vote of no confidence needs to be called very sharpish for November to be in the frame. An agreed election on the two thirds route has more time but is much less likely.Andy_JS said:The fact that a December 2019 election is much more popular on Betfair Exchange than a November 2019 election is completely bonkers IMO.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1548491350 -
47 is about fair value I think.MikeSmithson said:
I hope you are selling LD seats on the spread betting markets. The current sell level is 47 seats so if you are right about 30 you'd make 17 times your stake level.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
I doubt we’ll see @SouthamObserver for a little while. Someone confiscate the Leonard Cohen CDs.0
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Brexit.Andy_JS said:
What's that?TOPPING said:
With an overall majority Boris' government will deliver something you don't want.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.0 -
Very plausible imo.surbiton19 said:
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Thinking about potential GE election months we have:
October - no longer possible at all.
November - barely possible, would need a VoNC sharpish and no GNU.
December - would be hated by the public due to Christmas and cold, dark days.
January - a campaign over Christmas? I don't think so.
February - often snowy, often cold, probably not a good choice.
March onwards - beging to look more plausible to me.0 -
She thinks she has 472 questions evidentlyozymandias said:
Intellectual titans of our age.HYUFD said:0 -
-
I'd rather like to hear them on their better points rather than their worst.ozymandias said:
Well lets not hope we get a mix of maths and geography. Diane asking about where funding for the needed 100 million new border officers is coming from, and Dominic confirming they will be deployed to the UK/Thai border.Omnium said:
I'll happily hear both of their views, There are no Titans.ozymandias said:
Intellectual titans of our age.HYUFD said:
Few politicians know anything about maths. It's numeracy that matters.0 -
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My personal guess (and this is backed up the European election results) is that the LDs are seeing a major resurgence in what we might call Remainia. That is, cities, leafy suburbs and the the market towns of South East England.justin124 said:
UNS is far from perfect - but I would not expect it to be too far out. Remember that in February 1974 the Liberals polled over 19% - and ended up on 14 seats.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
If you look at the spread in LD votes at the Euros in 2019, and compare it to the 2009 spread, you see the LD is more concentrated, not less, with much higher highs (London and the South East), and similar lows (the Midlands, the East and Wales). There was only 7% between the best and worst regions in 2009; there was almost 14% in 2009.
Now, you can choose to ignore this if you like, but I think the evidence that the LD vote is going to lose all its concentration is scant.1 -
14 months of disagreements and indecision and uncertainty.surbiton19 said:
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
That will be good for us.0 -
@MarqueeMark , I note your remark on the previous thread about apologies from those who mocked you for saying that the EU would make further concessions. I am not aware of mocking you on that specific point (as opposed to generally, or on other points), but if I did and the concession eventuates and it gets passed by all parties before Oct 31st, then let me apologise in advance.0
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Why don’t you like catholics?TGOHF2 said:
Why don’t you like the Monarchy ?Anabobazina said:
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
Reds under the Bed?rottenborough said:0 -
Suspect the LDs will do well in the South West too - a traditional strong area for them.rcs1000 said:
My personal guess (and this is backed up the European election results) is that the LDs are seeing a major resurgence in what we might call Remainia. That is, cities, leafy suburbs and the the market towns of South East England.justin124 said:
UNS is far from perfect - but I would not expect it to be too far out. Remember that in February 1974 the Liberals polled over 19% - and ended up on 14 seats.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
If you look at the spread in LD votes at the Euros in 2019, and compare it to the 2009 spread, you see the LD is more concentrated, not less, with much higher highs (London and the South East), and similar lows (the Midlands, the East and Wales). There was only 7% between the best and worst regions in 2009; there was almost 14% in 2009.
Now, you can choose to ignore this if you like, but I think the evidence that the LD vote is going to lose all its concentration is scant.0 -
Not since 1975Foxy said:
The Dutch still have Surinam don't they?Charles said:
Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
Whereas the wider Anglo-Saxon family still controls Manhattan0 -
Sounds entirely reasonable and I don't see how anyone can disagree with this, but what if there is no way to get Stormont to decide anything?Scott_P said:0 -
Thank you for your encouragementsurbiton19 said:SURVATION SEP 25
Leave 45%
Remain 51%
Don't know 4%
This is not the time to give up. Victory is almost there.0 -
-
When did you stop beating your wife ?Anabobazina said:
Why don’t you like catholics?TGOHF2 said:
Why don’t you like the Monarchy ?Anabobazina said:
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
In the 20th century we had December elections in 1910, 1918 & 1923. There were also January elections in 1906 and 1910 , with February elections in 1950 and 1974.Benpointer said:
Very plausible imo.surbiton19 said:
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Thinking about potential GE election months we have:
October - no longer possible at all.
November - barely possible, would need a VoNC sharpish and no GNU.
December - would be hated by the public due to Christmas and cold, dark days.
January - a campaign over Christmas? I don't think so.
February - often snowy, often cold, probably not a good choice.
March onwards - beging to look more plausible to me.0 -
Dutch is still official in SurinamCharles said:
Not since 1975Foxy said:
The Dutch still have Surinam don't they?Charles said:
Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
Whereas the wider Anglo-Saxon family still controls Manhattan0 -
-
It was my great-great-great-grandfather who was Chairman of the East India Company...OblitusSumMe said:
Everyone should be silly a little of the time.Charles said:
Um, excuse me.OblitusSumMe said:
I prefer the Second British Empire to the first. Since the awfulness of British PMs has been so often compared to Eden recently, they may as well retake Suez as a prelude to liberating Hong Kong and bringing peace to the Indian subcontinent by uniting them underdyedwoolie said:
Actually Manhattan is doable if we retake Canada and spring a surprise New England offensive. Berlin will be easy. Just like 45. Then we can think about having a proper crack at Moscownichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
the yoke of British oppressionour benevolent rule. We could take Réunion again for old times sake.0 -
I asked why you thought it was a good idea to use sectarian iconography on your avatar. You know full well it’s a deeply unpleasant, bigoted, sectarian symbol, and you still haven’t answered my question.TGOHF2 said:
When did you stop beating your wife ?Anabobazina said:
Why don’t you like catholics?TGOHF2 said:
Why don’t you like the Monarchy ?Anabobazina said:
A painting of your favourite sectarian icon behind Roger Moore.TGOHF2 said:
Seeing as you were triggered by a British monarch I’ve changed it to a British legend.Anabobazina said:
What did you achieve today with your avatar featuring sectarian iconography?TGOHF2 said:What did parliament achieve today ?
Well done.0 -
Surely the LibDem position is straight forward:
1. Hauling in voters and members from both Tory and Labour Parties sick of extremism.
2. A further stack of Labour and Tory MPs turnable as time goes on
3. Whatever Swinson chooses to do, a confidence vote in a Corbyn minority fails because adding
4. So why risk breaking your supoorter base to vote for something that will fail anyway?0 -
I have you down as a Tom Lehrer fan Mr Meeks. God, if only I wasn't!AlastairMeeks said:I doubt we’ll see @SouthamObserver for a little while. Someone confiscate the Leonard Cohen CDs.
0 -
-
-
Yes I know all that but I'd humbly suggest the Christmas season is a bit more of a 'thing' now than it was 100 years ago.justin124 said:
In the 20th century we had December elections in 1910, 1918 & 1923. There were also January elections in 1906 and 1910 , with February elections in 1950 and 1974.Benpointer said:
Very plausible imo.surbiton19 said:
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Thinking about potential GE election months we have:
October - no longer possible at all.
November - barely possible, would need a VoNC sharpish and no GNU.
December - would be hated by the public due to Christmas and cold, dark days.
January - a campaign over Christmas? I don't think so.
February - often snowy, often cold, probably not a good choice.
March onwards - beging to look more plausible to me.
Of course anything is possible but whoever gets to set the election date will not want to piss off large sections of the population.0 -
Hence the “...”ozymandias said:
Not quiteCharles said:
So both in Germany then...viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
(I was in Germany last week and someone described Strasbourg as “really part of Germany” 😆)0 -
Brilliant as ever.Scott_P said:0 -
Why wouldn’t he? It’s diplomacy 101rottenborough said:0 -
Germans do have a historical habit of being territorial about such things 😉Charles said:
Hence the “...”ozymandias said:
Not quiteCharles said:
So both in Germany then...viewcode said:Some of you will have noted the reports earlier today about an unspecified number of European Union capitals, including Paris and Berlin, having discussed time-limiting the backstop. This presumably caused an uptick in GBP, gaining about 0.8 of a cent and reversing the loss of the day. The Bloomberg report is here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
(I was in Germany last week and someone described Strasbourg as “really part of Germany” 😆)0 -
And English is mangled in the StatesSunil_Prasannan said:
Dutch is still official in SurinamCharles said:
Not since 1975Foxy said:
The Dutch still have Surinam don't they?Charles said:
Swapping Manhattan for Surinam has to be one of the greatest trades in historyydoethur said:
We take Manhattan is Bailey credible as a strategy.nichomar said:
No we first take Manhattan and then Berlindyedwoolie said:
The retake Calais, war boostersDougSeal said:Who the hell are the 3% who think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit?
Whereas the wider Anglo-Saxon family still controls Manhattan0 -
I think LibDems will get six at the most off Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
More to the point, in places like Hampstead or Cambridge, the LibDems are confronted by Ultra-Remain Labour MPs.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
Like Justin, I just don't see many LibDem gains from Labour.
They may get 15 or 20 from the Tories, possibly.
Bermondsey, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Portsmouth S, Sheffield Hallam, Vauxhall.
Perhaps three of them. But dozens off the Tories - and that's what matters.0 -
Like Dev sending condolences on Hitler's suicide?Charles said:
Why wouldn’t he? It’s diplomacy 101rottenborough said:0 -
0
-
I have never attached much weight to EU elections - and this year both major parties largely abstained from them.Nor do I share the widespread assumption that the the next election will be dominated by Brexit. Many expected that in 2017 and were proved wrong. I also recall that at that election we held different views as to the likely outcome in Remain strongholds such as Cambridge.rcs1000 said:
My personal guess (and this is backed up the European election results) is that the LDs are seeing a major resurgence in what we might call Remainia. That is, cities, leafy suburbs and the the market towns of South East England.justin124 said:
UNS is far from perfect - but I would not expect it to be too far out. Remember that in February 1974 the Liberals polled over 19% - and ended up on 14 seats.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
.surbiton19 said:
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
If you look at the spread in LD votes at the Euros in 2019, and compare it to the 2009 spread, you see the LD is more concentrated, not less, with much higher highs (London and the South East), and similar lows (the Midlands, the East and Wales). There was only 7% between the best and worst regions in 2009; there was almost 14% in 2009.
Now, you can choose to ignore this if you like, but I think the evidence that the LD vote is going to lose all its concentration is scant.0 -
I like both!Omnium said:
I have you down as a Tom Lehrer fan Mr Meeks. God, if only I wasn't!AlastairMeeks said:I doubt we’ll see @SouthamObserver for a little while. Someone confiscate the Leonard Cohen CDs.
Tom Lehrer is in that select category, alongside Clarissa Eden and Olivia de Havilland, of people still alive that you don’t expect to be (but are pleased that they are).0 -
The opposition does not want an election before Johnson has agreed an extension. And the government will not want an election afterwards.Benpointer said:
Yes I know all that but I'd humbly suggest the Christmas season is a bit more of a 'thing' now than it was 100 years ago.justin124 said:
In the 20th century we had December elections in 1910, 1918 & 1923. There were also January elections in 1906 and 1910 , with February elections in 1950 and 1974.Benpointer said:
Very plausible imo.surbiton19 said:
At least until May 2020 for sure. The extension will be until December 2020.No_Offence_Alan said:
What election? You're stuck with Johnson as in ineffectual PM until May 2022.HYUFD said:
And I will raise a glass of champagne to them on election night when Boris crosses the threshold for a Tory majoritysurbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Thinking about potential GE election months we have:
October - no longer possible at all.
November - barely possible, would need a VoNC sharpish and no GNU.
December - would be hated by the public due to Christmas and cold, dark days.
January - a campaign over Christmas? I don't think so.
February - often snowy, often cold, probably not a good choice.
March onwards - beging to look more plausible to me.
Of course anything is possible but whoever gets to set the election date will not want to piss off large sections of the population.0 -
Satire died when they gave Henry Kissinger the Peace prize.AlastairMeeks said:
I like both!Omnium said:
I have you down as a Tom Lehrer fan Mr Meeks. God, if only I wasn't!AlastairMeeks said:I doubt we’ll see @SouthamObserver for a little while. Someone confiscate the Leonard Cohen CDs.
Tom Lehrer is in that select category, alongside Clarissa Eden and Olivia de Havilland, of people still alive that you don’t expect to be (but are pleased that they are).
Even Brexit struggles to match that.0 -
Not his best, and in danger of creating a meme even more mind blowing boring than bloody Schrodinger's sodding fucking cat.Scott_P said:
And it has just occurred to me that that is French for "this is not a blowjob". Do we think naughty old Magritte intended that?0 -
Bernard Cribbins always in this grouping.AlastairMeeks said:
I like both!Omnium said:
I have you down as a Tom Lehrer fan Mr Meeks. God, if only I wasn't!AlastairMeeks said:I doubt we’ll see @SouthamObserver for a little while. Someone confiscate the Leonard Cohen CDs.
Tom Lehrer is in that select category, alongside Clarissa Eden and Olivia de Havilland, of people still alive that you don’t expect to be (but are pleased that they are).0 -
Bermondsey and Leeds NW are now much less likely due to former LD MPs not standing. In Portsmouth South the electoral dynamics have changed following Labour's surprise win in 2017 from third place. The new Labour MP will have first term incumbency - and likely to be seen as the strongest anti-Tory option.Barnesian said:
I think LibDems will get six at the most off Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
More to the point, in places like Hampstead or Cambridge, the LibDems are confronted by Ultra-Remain Labour MPs.rcs1000 said:
Well yes, of course. But that's because the LDs had more votes to lose in seats where they had 40-50%, than where they had 10 or 12%.justin124 said:
Not entirely so. On the basis of UNS, even current polls would only produce fewer than 15 gains from the Tories and a mere handful from Labour - indeed only Sheffield Hallam looks a likely gain at Labour expense. Add a single gain from SNP - Fife NE - and that would take them to circa 30 seats. Personally, I expect them to fall back from current poll levels.rcs1000 said:
The LibDem seat number correlates pretty well in the post 1992 world with the Con-LD spread. If the number is 13-14 percentage points, as now, then that suggests they will end up with around 40-42 seats.justin124 said:
I agree - they will do well to reach 30 seats.surbiton19 said:For those liberal minded Remainers celebrating more people recognize LDs as more pro-Remain may get what they do not wish for: the Remain vote totally split. All you will be doing is hand victory to HYUFD and his party.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
Now, it's possible that if you add 17% to the LD vote total, then it goes on equally in Sunderland South and Hampstead.
But I don't think it's very likely, do you?
Like Justin, I just don't see many LibDem gains from Labour.
They may get 15 or 20 from the Tories, possibly.
Bermondsey, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Portsmouth S, Sheffield Hallam, Vauxhall.
Perhaps three of them. But dozens off the Tories - and that's what matters.0 -
And when Parliament/the courts say no to both options....?TGOHF2 said:0 -
So, looks like we are not leaving. Plus ca change.Scott_P said:0 -
That is very genereous, considering I was indulging in some mild trolling!viewcode said:@MarqueeMark , I note your remark on the previous thread about apologies from those who mocked you for saying that the EU would make further concessions. I am not aware of mocking you on that specific point (as opposed to generally, or on other points), but if I did and the concession eventuates and it gets passed by all parties before Oct 31st, then let me apologise in advance.
0 -
Not really - he’s just a fan of dictatorship.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Reds under the Bed?rottenborough said:0 -
Has Boris booked the removal van yet? It doesn't matter what the new deal is, the EU will say no and even if they don't, of course parliament will.TGOHF2 said:twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1179140682231025664?s=21
1 -
Given that this "new deal" seems designed to be shot down, by everybody, are we win the last week of BoZo's premiership?1
-
Johnson heading rapidly towards the rocks.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1179140623548473350
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11791410802368634880
