politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tact

Hmm .... tactical voting ..... a further steer towards that Tories most votes - Labour most seats prospect. Cracking value at 6/1 from Ladbrokes imho.

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

I think Nick Clegg could expect some tactical voting from Conservatives.

Farage loses the plot completely :

Putin is the world leader I most admire

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-vladimir-putin-is-the-world-leader-i-most-admire-9224781.html

I expect Clegg will have a smile this morning ahead of the next debate.

...........................................................

Thanks Sean.

O/T

Hungary game

For anyone that would like to play, the game is out and closes at 9pm on Saturday:

http://www.electiongame.co.uk/hungary14/

With Hungary's new voting system now in place, it includes a seat calculator to make things a bit easier:

http://www.valasztasirendszer.hu/mandatum/#

Thanks to OGH and here's to the next 10 years...

Having been out of action with a throat infection, I've only recently caught up on the backlog of PB threads - so many thanks to Mike for the "shout out" on the 10th anniversary thread.

Looking after PB in Mike's absence was something of a full-time job (especially when a major story broke!) but was always very rewarding, and was made much easier by having the likes of David, Henry, and Morus (great to see his reappearance on the thread!) available for writing articles, and of course Marf with the cartoons - kudos to TSE for helping Mike with the site now, as I know that it can be quite full-on sometimes!

I think the highlight of my years with PB has to be the trading floor at US Election Night 2008, which was a fantastic few hours and a lot of fun.

Thanks and well done to Mike and Robert for everything they've done with PB in the last decade, and thanks also to the current team - TSE, David, Marf, Harry, and anyone else I've missed. And a special mention for the moderators, who do an essential if sometimes thankless task.

Despite keeping on eye on almost 40 countries (eg Hungary above), the UK remains very much "first among equals" and so PB remains an essential read every morning, alongside the likes of Electionista, Suffragio, and World Elections.

Best wishes to all posters, punters, and lurkers, and look forward to seeing some of you at the next PB drinks.

Cheers,

DC

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Shows what a chap Farage is that he's prepared to give an interview to a specimen like Alastair Campbell. I'm disappointed that you latch onto Campbell's vile spin.

Is the data loaded correctly? I'm getting identical results (67/32) for Labour, UKIP and the LibDems, with only the Tories (75/25) being different.

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

All of them. Five-figure majorities. You just wait for Budget 2015.

Or have I missed something?

The government's descent into naked authoritarianism continues unabated, with news today that it is actively considering Robert Buckland MP's mad proposals on reform of the law of child neglect. These include making child neglect an offence of strict liability, so that the parent's intention is irrelevant in determining their guilt or innocence, and substituting a specious subjective definition of "maltreatment" for the current objective definition of neglect. If it is the case, as he claims, that 1.5 million children are "neglected" and that the law should punish their parents as criminals, how many families is he proposing to destroy, and how many additional prison places is he advocating? As ever, "child protection" is used as a justification for grave assaults on individual freedom.

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

Patrick said:

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

One quirk of Coalition government and fixed term parliaments is that the 2015 budget of future economic arrangements will have been signed off by both parties and presumably will then be campaigned on accordingly.

Good morning, everyone.

Climate change armageddon appears to be back in the news. From the men who got their last temperature forecasts completely wrong (it's plateaued for 15 years, not risen inexorably), comes a new work of cutting edge fiction.

Has any climate change forecast been proven right? The closest would be 'more unusual weather', but this has also happened countless times in the past, without anyone claiming climate change as the cause (I mean either at the time or retrospectively).

On-topic: it's interesting that Conservatives appear somewhat more positive and less negative ('tactical' makes it sound nicer than just hating something so much that motivates your vote).

MikeK said:

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Which Farage makes explicitly, he does.

JackW, Who's highland fortress is soon to be taken over by the SNP, shows his fear and hatred of UKIP by his remarks, this morning, in line with the MSM who are trying with all their collective might to turn the UKIP band-waggon around. It wont work and Farage will again make mincemeat of Cleggover on Wednesday.

"A man more spinned against, than spinning".

Easterross said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

UKIP is not a centre right party. Other than its EU/immigration policy (though I agree most see it as its only policy) the pontifications from Nigel Farage have more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.

UKIP is a WASP/WWC party.

As opposed to the Cameroons, who are a white upper middle class faction.

Perhaps you should read UKIP's thoughts on taxation and fracking, both of which I think Robert Smithson has spoken highly of.

But of course you'd rather wallow in your anti-UKIP bigotry and hatred, like a Rangers/Celtic supporter wallowing in their hatred for Celtic/Rangers.

The similarity between the worst sort of football fans and the most partisan political groupees amuses me.

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Absolutely. Putin has played Syria flawlessly and Ukraine flawlessly. He has trained western governments to tolerate the murder of his political opponents in their own capital cities, and to accept the expropriation of western companies' interests in Russia. None of this has had any consequences for him at all. He's playing a blinder and running rings around the lot of them.

So he's done the bit where he intervenes in the Spanish Civil War, and he's done the Anschluss. It remains to be seen whether he gets cocky and does the invading Poland bit. It won't be Poland obviously but it will be interesting what it is.

French Interior Ministry reporting turnout was 63.7%

Right - 45.91% .. FN 6.84% .. Left 40.57%

Left lose 155 towns of population 9K plus. FN gain at least 14.

Patrick said:

JackW said:

Patrick said:

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

One quirk of Coalition government and fixed term parliaments is that the 2015 budget of future economic arrangements will have been signed off by both parties and presumably will then be campaigned on accordingly.

Yes. It's interesting that the pension reform is in detail the baby of that nice mr Webb (LibDem) but seems to have morphed into a Tory policy by virtue of Osborne presenting it. The LibDems should be more vocal about the bits of coalition policy they are proud of.

The Budget announcement wasnt Webb's baby. Pension taxation is a HMT policy responsibility and the policy would have originated there rather than at Webb's department.

More broadly, the poll does show what we've seen here. By contrast to a year or two ago, Tories generally really like the Government - Richard N may be an outrider in thinking it's almost perfect, but lots of Tory posters think it's pretty good. By contrast, Labour and LibDem posters are often scratching their heads, wondering if this approach or that might be better. Another polling effect of that is that Tory voters give Cameron sky-high leader ratings, while Labour and LibDem voters are notably more ambiguous about their leaderships.

The Conservative problem is that anti-Tory voting is really very strong. Liking for Cameron and the government among people who say they'll vote for other parties is negligible - the figures for "Cameron is doing very well" in the latest YG are 0 (Lab), 3 (LD) and 4 (UKIP). So the potential to reach out beyond the current bloc of Tory enthusiasts is limited, and yet they probably need to get over 40% if they want a majority, and probably to 37-38% to stay in power.

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

The bare fact remains that the Tories have to cling on to ~25 seats just to hold the very narrowest of seat leads. In pretty much all of these defences, they are strongly odds against, so either Shadsy is feeling strangely generous, or he feels that betting on CMS is a mug's game. Hmm.

Shadsy may equally be feeling strangely generous in offering Labour most seats at 4/6. But personally I expect that it's not so much a case of him feeling generous in either case as in him setting the odds where he can most tempt bets and keep a balanced book for profit.

Those of us that are unsentimental will place bets that allow us to make a near-guaranteed profit in the event of either Labour most seats or Conservative most seats, with the outside chance of making a profit on both sides of the bets if some Conservatives hold on against a crimson tide.

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

France
""from 60 elected councillors in 2008, the party [Front National] now has more than 12,000"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100265536/france-has-given-up-on-its-politicians-with-good-reason/

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

Speaking of "lies", have you located that link to the London oil job exodus ?

Huzzah, England have dropped Jade Dernbach.

F1: don't forget to read my exciting post-race analysis of Malaysia:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html

Bahrain's at the coming weekend. Got a bet in mind but Ladbrokes haven't got the market up yet, and Betfair hasn't quite got going.

Nick Palmer - I'd broady agree with that athough to be honest if people thought Cameron was doing really well they'd probably already be voting Conservative.

It does make me laugh when people complain about Miliband's 35% strategy, as if Cameron is trying a la Major and Thatcher to appeal to 40-45% of the electorate. The budget has given them a boost, but in supporting pensioners there's a danger of there not being much more juice to squeeze out of that lemon.

New Euro Elections Tricast betting available shortly at Ladbrokes.

Vote Share Tricast Betting

6/4 UKIP-Lab-Cons
9/4 Lab-UKIP-Cons
7/2 Lab-Cons-UKIP
6 Cons-Lab-UKIP
10 UKIP-Cons-Lab
20 Cons-UKIP-Lab

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

Speaking of "lies", have you located that link to the London oil job exodus ?

back under your rock Monica

Stuart_Dickson said:

JohnO said:

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

- "reasonably confident that all will be held"

Indeed?

In that case you could be a wealthier man next year. CON win:

Dewsbury 7/2 (PP)
Hove 3/1 (PP)
Stroud 7/4 (Lad)
Northampton N 5/4 (Lad)

Is there a simple link to the Ladbrokes prices - I am tempted to have a flutter.

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

Sending to children to boarding school at 7?

JohnO said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

JohnO said:

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

- "reasonably confident that all will be held"

Indeed?

In that case you could be a wealthier man next year. CON win:

Dewsbury 7/2 (PP)
Hove 3/1 (PP)
Stroud 7/4 (Lad)
Northampton N 5/4 (Lad)

Is there a simple link to the Ladbrokes prices - I am tempted to have a flutter.

The ladbrokes website is as difficult to navigate as is the journey from Dirty Dicks to Elmbridge

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Shadsy has put up a buzzword bingo market on the next Clegg v Farage debate.

I like the looks of I married a German @ 16/1 and Retired Colonels @ 20/1

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/N-Clegg-v-N-Farage-BBC-Debate/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z0t43xZ1z141ne/

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...

Who the hell should a Tory voter tactically vote for?

Certainly not Labour, and definitely not LibDem.

One cannot seriously vote for UKIP....

So it is hard as a Tory to vote tactically as all it does is let in one or other bunch of idiots/loons/socialists

Mr. Grandiose, that seems somewhat better.

Mr. Antifrank, interesting, and seems separate to the eastern strip of Moldova the news mentioned as the next potential Russian annex.

Mr. Eagles, none of those grab me, to be honest. It'll be interesting to see if the second debate has more impact than the first.

I wonder whether we might end up with a different set of debates at the General Election. One with 4 leaders, two with 3 and one with just Cameron and Miliband.

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

It's not just you (LIAMT commented upthread). It sounds like an absolutely dreadful piece of legislation. While I expect few parents would actually be prosecuted, almost any parent could be liable to prosecution if a police officer or social worker took exception to the way they bring up their children.

I joined the Conservative Party to oppose this sort of rubbish. The fact that a Conservative-led government should intend to introduce this rubbish makes me very glad I resigned.

I'd like to see the wording of the Government-sponsored amendment before commenting. The Lib Dem MP's wording is pretty hazy, but something suitably tightly-defined would potentially be a very good thing for children.

john_zims said:

@FrankBooth

' The budget has given them a boost, but in supporting pensioners there's a danger of there not being much more juice to squeeze out of that lemon.'

Surely the boost is to the 50 + category of people coming up to their pensions as existing pensioners will already have had to buy an annuity.

There's a savings bond available exclusively to pensioners, is there not? However I did think there might be some resentment from people who've recently taken an annuity, but it's not showing at the moment.