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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?”

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First!

RodCrosby

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

peter_from_putney

Hmm .... tactical voting ..... a further steer towards that Tories most votes - Labour most seats prospect. Cracking value at 6/1 from Ladbrokes imho.

peter_from_putney

peter_from_putney said:

Hmm .... tactical voting ..... a further steer towards that Tories most votes - Labour most seats prospect. Cracking value at 6/1 from Ladbrokes imho.

Trimmed back by Shadsy & Co. from 6/1 to 5/1 overnight I see ... grrh!

Sean_F

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Stuart_Dickson

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Good point. If it had not been for the fact that tactical votes must, by definition, be cast for a party with a reasonable chance of winning. Or at least more chance of winning than your 1st-preference party.

UKIP fails that test.

JackW

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Sean_F

Stuart_Dickson said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Good point. If it had not been for the fact that tactical votes must, by definition, be cast for a party with a reasonable chance of winning. Or at least more chance of winning than your 1st-preference party.

UKIP fails that test.

I was thinking more at local council level, at this stage.

At Parliamentary level, that would be less likely, but could happen in a few seats like Eastleigh or South Shields.

Sean_F

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

I think Nick Clegg could expect some tactical voting from Conservatives.

Sean_F

O/T but it looks as if FN have won 14 French councils, some of them fair-sized towns.

JackW

Farage loses the plot completely :

Putin is the world leader I most admire

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-vladimir-putin-is-the-world-leader-i-most-admire-9224781.html

I expect Clegg will have a smile this morning ahead of the next debate.

...........................................................

Thanks Sean.

Stuart_Dickson

Sean_F said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Good point. If it had not been for the fact that tactical votes must, by definition, be cast for a party with a reasonable chance of winning. Or at least more chance of winning than your 1st-preference party.

UKIP fails that test.

I was thinking more at local council level, at this stage.

At Parliamentary level, that would be less likely, but could happen in a few seats like Eastleigh or South Shields.

I agree re. South Shields. There seems little doubt that in many northern English seats UKIP are less toxic than the Tories, and could well surpass them as the main centre-right party. However, Labour are so far ahead in most areas it is not likely to bring any seats.

DoubleCarpet

O/T

Hungary game

For anyone that would like to play, the game is out and closes at 9pm on Saturday:

http://www.electiongame.co.uk/hungary14/

With Hungary's new voting system now in place, it includes a seat calculator to make things a bit easier:

http://www.valasztasirendszer.hu/mandatum/#

Thanks to OGH and here's to the next 10 years...

Having been out of action with a throat infection, I've only recently caught up on the backlog of PB threads - so many thanks to Mike for the "shout out" on the 10th anniversary thread.

Looking after PB in Mike's absence was something of a full-time job (especially when a major story broke!) but was always very rewarding, and was made much easier by having the likes of David, Henry, and Morus (great to see his reappearance on the thread!) available for writing articles, and of course Marf with the cartoons - kudos to TSE for helping Mike with the site now, as I know that it can be quite full-on sometimes!

I think the highlight of my years with PB has to be the trading floor at US Election Night 2008, which was a fantastic few hours and a lot of fun.

Thanks and well done to Mike and Robert for everything they've done with PB in the last decade, and thanks also to the current team - TSE, David, Marf, Harry, and anyone else I've missed. And a special mention for the moderators, who do an essential if sometimes thankless task.

Despite keeping on eye on almost 40 countries (eg Hungary above), the UK remains very much "first among equals" and so PB remains an essential read every morning, alongside the likes of Electionista, Suffragio, and World Elections.

Best wishes to all posters, punters, and lurkers, and look forward to seeing some of you at the next PB drinks.

Cheers,

DC

AveryLP

JackW said:

Farage loses the plot completely :

Putin is the world leader I most admire

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-vladimir-putin-is-the-world-leader-i-most-admire-9224781.html

I expect Clegg will have a smile this morning ahead of the next debate.

...........................................................

Thanks Sean.

The Nigel Farage "Kipper Arms" Pub Quiz.

Match each description to the politicians named below:

A. “perfectly nice ... stands four-square for nothing”

B. “nice, not very worldly - I would love to see X in a working men's club in Newcastle”

C. “very nice, just wrong”

D. “incredibly cold ... in private X is even more miserable.”

E. “Brilliant. Not that I approve of X politically.


Vladimir Putin
Nick Clegg
Angela Merkel
Ed Miliband
David Cameron

PRIZE: A free day's campaigning with Nigel on Margate Sands.

MonikerDiCanio

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Shows what a chap Farage is that he's prepared to give an interview to a specimen like Alastair Campbell. I'm disappointed that you latch onto Campbell's vile spin.

BobaFett

There was an interesting betting - and non-partisan debate - last night about the seat by seat markets. The seats the Tories need to hold just to have the narrowest of seat leads look very tricky and are consequently very long with Shadsy. People who forecasted CMS tended to scratch their heads when asked which seats they would cling on to. Interesting indeed, but important from a financial perspective because there is money to be made...

Charles

Is the data loaded correctly? I'm getting identical results (67/32) for Labour, UKIP and the LibDems, with only the Tories (75/25) being different.

BobaFett

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

Innocent_Abroad

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

All of them. Five-figure majorities. You just wait for Budget 2015.

Or have I missed something?

Financier

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Life_ina_market_town

The government's descent into naked authoritarianism continues unabated, with news today that it is actively considering Robert Buckland MP's mad proposals on reform of the law of child neglect. These include making child neglect an offence of strict liability, so that the parent's intention is irrelevant in determining their guilt or innocence, and substituting a specious subjective definition of "maltreatment" for the current objective definition of neglect. If it is the case, as he claims, that 1.5 million children are "neglected" and that the law should punish their parents as criminals, how many families is he proposing to destroy, and how many additional prison places is he advocating? As ever, "child protection" is used as a justification for grave assaults on individual freedom.

JackW

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Shows what a chap Farage is that he's prepared to give an interview to a specimen like Alastair Campbell. I'm disappointed that you latch onto Campbell's vile spin.

Presumably Campbell didn't force Farage to reply as he did or say Ukip was 45 minutes from termination.

Farage's comments are politically foolish whatever spin is placed on them and are as stupid as Farage describing their 2010 manifesto as "drivel" - Just a gift to opponents.

JohnO

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

JackW

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

Sorry but outside of the "JackW Dozen" - thirteen seats of their type that will determine the GE, I will not be issuing seat by seat projections.

Northampton North is on my long list of candidates and if it makes the final cut in May I'll happily get back to you.

[Deleted User]

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

JackW

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

I don't admire any serving Western leader - even Merkel.

Whilst in office I believe the relationship between heads of government and the voters should be that of the lamppost and a dog - we must be in a position to happily and readily piss all over them - least they forget who the real masters are.

JackW

Patrick said:

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

One quirk of Coalition government and fixed term parliaments is that the 2015 budget of future economic arrangements will have been signed off by both parties and presumably will then be campaigned on accordingly.

[Deleted User]

JackW said:

Patrick said:

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

One quirk of Coalition government and fixed term parliaments is that the 2015 budget of future economic arrangements will have been signed off by both parties and presumably will then be campaigned on accordingly.

Yes. It's interesting that the pension reform is in detail the baby of that nice mr Webb (LibDem) but seems to have morphed into a Tory policy by virtue of Osborne presenting it. The LibDems should be more vocal about the bits of coalition policy they are proud of.

Easterross

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

UKIP is not a centre right party. Other than its EU/immigration policy (though I agree most see it as its only policy) the pontifications from Nigel Farage have more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.

UKIP is a WASP/WWC party.

MikeK

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Which Farage makes explicitly, he does.

JackW, Who's highland fortress is soon to be taken over by the SNP, shows his fear and hatred of UKIP by his remarks, this morning, in line with the MSM who are trying with all their collective might to turn the UKIP band-waggon around. It wont work and Farage will again make mincemeat of Cleggover on Wednesday.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Climate change armageddon appears to be back in the news. From the men who got their last temperature forecasts completely wrong (it's plateaued for 15 years, not risen inexorably), comes a new work of cutting edge fiction.

Has any climate change forecast been proven right? The closest would be 'more unusual weather', but this has also happened countless times in the past, without anyone claiming climate change as the cause (I mean either at the time or retrospectively).

On-topic: it's interesting that Conservatives appear somewhat more positive and less negative ('tactical' makes it sound nicer than just hating something so much that motivates your vote).

JackW

MikeK said:

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Which Farage makes explicitly, he does.

JackW, Who's highland fortress is soon to be taken over by the SNP, shows his fear and hatred of UKIP by his remarks, this morning, in line with the MSM who are trying with all their collective might to turn the UKIP band-waggon around. It wont work and Farage will again make mincemeat of Cleggover on Wednesday.

Thank you Mrs Farage for that searingly objective assessment.

AveryLP

MikeK said:

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Which Farage makes explicitly, he does.

JackW, Who's highland fortress is soon to be taken over by the SNP, shows his fear and hatred of UKIP by his remarks, this morning, in line with the MSM who are trying with all their collective might to turn the UKIP band-waggon around. It wont work and Farage will again make mincemeat of Cleggover on Wednesday.

"A man more spinned against, than spinning".

NickPalmer

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

another_richard

Easterross said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

UKIP is not a centre right party. Other than its EU/immigration policy (though I agree most see it as its only policy) the pontifications from Nigel Farage have more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.

UKIP is a WASP/WWC party.

As opposed to the Cameroons, who are a white upper middle class faction.

Perhaps you should read UKIP's thoughts on taxation and fracking, both of which I think Robert Smithson has spoken highly of.

But of course you'd rather wallow in your anti-UKIP bigotry and hatred, like a Rangers/Celtic supporter wallowing in their hatred for Celtic/Rangers.

The similarity between the worst sort of football fans and the most partisan political groupees amuses me.

Stuart_Dickson

isam said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Interestingly, the odds on CON winning North Warwickshire (the No.1 seat on Labour's target list) and the odds on YES are identical: 7/2.

Rubs chin.

Have SJ taken down their constituency markets? The swines!

Yes.

I made the mistake of contacting their chat service on Friday to enquire if they perhaps had a technical bug regarding their constituency prices. (Only the Bs and one or two Cs were showing.) The customer service rep asked me for my username, but before I could answer she closed the chat window. Then, when I updated the page, she had totally removed every single constituency price!

I'm just wondering if they had *accidentally* published some of their priced-up seats, and when I stupidly drew their attention to the fact they quickly took them down?

Either way, I was a tad pissed of that they effectively slammed the phone down on me.

BobaFett

@JohnO

Fill your boots. Shadsy will offer you a decent price on such an outcome.

Bond_James_Bond

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

It must be a head-scratching business trying to decide who to vote for tactically in Scotland. In 2010, 81% of the votes were cast for left-wing parties and (a different) 78% were cast for unionist parties.

It's like those "elections" they had in the USSR where all the candidates were communists. I wonder how it was handled there?

JackW

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

Life_ina_market_town

Morris_Dancer said:

Climate change armageddon appears to be back in the news. From the men who got their last temperature forecasts completely wrong (it's plateaued for 15 years, not risen inexorably), comes a new work of cutting edge fiction.

Has any climate change forecast been proven right? The closest would be 'more unusual weather', but this has also happened countless times in the past, without anyone claiming climate change as the cause (I mean either at the time or retrospectively).

You make the error of assuming that the validity of a "science" depends on its confirmation by the evidence. Louis Althusser was often asked (before he killed his wife) how Marxism could be considered a science, despite its theories and predictions' failure to conform to the historical record. He answered that the sciences:

have no need for verification from external practices to declare the knowledges they produce to be 'true', ie to be knowledges. No mathematician in the world waits until physics has verified a theorem to declare it proved...The truth of his theorem is a hundred per cent provided by criteria purely internal to the practice of mathematical proof, hence by the criterion of mathematical practice, ie by the forms required by existing mathematical scientificity. We can say the same for the results of every science... [L.P. Althusser, Lire le Capital, (1965)]

Thus he demonstrated there was no historical evidence that could disprove Marxism, or undermine its "scientific" status.

Bond_James_Bond

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

Absolutely. Putin has played Syria flawlessly and Ukraine flawlessly. He has trained western governments to tolerate the murder of his political opponents in their own capital cities, and to accept the expropriation of western companies' interests in Russia. None of this has had any consequences for him at all. He's playing a blinder and running rings around the lot of them.

So he's done the bit where he intervenes in the Spanish Civil War, and he's done the Anschluss. It remains to be seen whether he gets cocky and does the invading Poland bit. It won't be Poland obviously but it will be interesting what it is.

BobaFett

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

The bare fact remains that the Tories have to cling on to ~25 seats just to hold the very narrowest of seat leads. In pretty much all of these defences, they are strongly odds against, so either Shadsy is feeling strangely generous, or he feels that betting on CMS is a mug's game. Hmm.

JackW

French Interior Ministry reporting turnout was 63.7%

Right - 45.91% .. FN 6.84% .. Left 40.57%

Left lose 155 towns of population 9K plus. FN gain at least 14.

Monksfield

There were a few seats where the Tory vote went to a Lib Dem to stop Labour e.g.Rochdale and maybe Chesterfield, but these have been few. It'll be interesting to see whether any residual Tory vote in e.g. Burnley, Yardley or Redcar breaks tactically. I mean, if I were a Tory in those seats I probably would, but I'm not.

Neil

Patrick said:

JackW said:

Patrick said:

I wonder how Budget 2015 will affect the GE votes. It seems this year's pension reforming budget has made some impact on the polls. I have no doubt that a deeply political and thoughtful chancellor such Osborne will have a rabbit kept in his hat for next year. I'm also pretty sure that it will contain a 'game changing' ideologocail move such as this pension reforming one.

One quirk of Coalition government and fixed term parliaments is that the 2015 budget of future economic arrangements will have been signed off by both parties and presumably will then be campaigned on accordingly.

Yes. It's interesting that the pension reform is in detail the baby of that nice mr Webb (LibDem) but seems to have morphed into a Tory policy by virtue of Osborne presenting it. The LibDems should be more vocal about the bits of coalition policy they are proud of.

The Budget announcement wasnt Webb's baby. Pension taxation is a HMT policy responsibility and the policy would have originated there rather than at Webb's department.

Morris_Dancer

Interesting post, Mr. Town.

Mr. Bond, I was surprised to hear on the news last night that Russia was demanding Ukraine change its constitution, and even more surprised this was not a leading story.

This could be a pretext for either further annexation or a full scale invasion.

NickPalmer

More broadly, the poll does show what we've seen here. By contrast to a year or two ago, Tories generally really like the Government - Richard N may be an outrider in thinking it's almost perfect, but lots of Tory posters think it's pretty good. By contrast, Labour and LibDem posters are often scratching their heads, wondering if this approach or that might be better. Another polling effect of that is that Tory voters give Cameron sky-high leader ratings, while Labour and LibDem voters are notably more ambiguous about their leaderships.

The Conservative problem is that anti-Tory voting is really very strong. Liking for Cameron and the government among people who say they'll vote for other parties is negligible - the figures for "Cameron is doing very well" in the latest YG are 0 (Lab), 3 (LD) and 4 (UKIP). So the potential to reach out beyond the current bloc of Tory enthusiasts is limited, and yet they probably need to get over 40% if they want a majority, and probably to 37-38% to stay in power.

JackW

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

The bare fact remains that the Tories have to cling on to ~25 seats just to hold the very narrowest of seat leads. In pretty much all of these defences, they are strongly odds against, so either Shadsy is feeling strangely generous, or he feels that betting on CMS is a mug's game. Hmm.

Shadsy will make his book and amend it based on volume of trades but initially what the present polls are showing - similar to horse racing form.

However the race is not today but next May and the situation will change. The assessment of my ARSE is based on a projection borne of a variety of current, historical and predicted events. Hence the difference.

Essentially the projection will foretell Shady's future book ....or as I call it profit .... AKA Mrs JackW's Foot Covering Fund.

TGOHF

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Bond_James_Bond

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting post, Mr. Town.

Mr. Bond, I was surprised to hear on the news last night that Russia was demanding Ukraine change its constitution, and even more surprised this was not a leading story.

This could be a pretext for either further annexation or a full scale invasion.

Yes, that was interesting. My feeling is that Ukraine is the canonical far away country of which we know little, and Putin is simply too intelligent for any western country to handle. Taken together these add up to a compelling intellectual case for western governments to look the other way, pretend nothing's happening and hope he goes away.

Putin's background is widely understood to be KGB, he is rumoured to be the unknown part-owner of Gunvor and his methods include traditional KGB methods including murder and the tactical harnessing of corruption.

His counterparts in the west are parochial little machine politicians like Barraco Barner. It's just no contest.

Stuart_Dickson

BobaFett said:

There was an interesting betting - and non-partisan debate - last night about the seat by seat markets. The seats the Tories need to hold just to have the narrowest of seat leads look very tricky and are consequently very long with Shadsy. People who forecasted CMS tended to scratch their heads when asked which seats they would cling on to. Interesting indeed, but important from a financial perspective because there is money to be made...

Indeed.

People predicting CON Most Seats need to elaborate on exactly which seats they think they are going to hold on to, because many of them are currently at long prices.

In fact, most CMS-backers would get far better value betting on a basket of marginal seats rather than the overall market.

Socrates

Communities Secretary Eric Pickles has said he may send in inspectors to investigate a London borough.

Panorama has found that Lutfur Rahman, the Bangladeshi mayor of Tower Hamlets, has more than doubled funding recommended by officers for Bengali-run charities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-26716862

AlastairMeeks

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Differentiation - likely to increase in the final year for obvious reasons - will make it a bit difficult. Beyond that it may be affected by the local MP's approach. In my patch, the MP has been aggressively anti-LibDem from the start, perhaps because there's a Lab-Lib coalition on the council. The payback for that has been a notably low-profile LibDem approach to the GE - they've not even selected a candidate as yet, and probably won't for a couple of months; tactical voting, always a big factor in Broxtowe, is likely to increase markedly.

Indeed Nick.

Clearly the situation will vary seat by seat and candidate by candidate and there will probably be many where all the cross currents will result in a zero sum total in the round.

The professional psephologists will rummage through their spread sheets for years.

The bare fact remains that the Tories have to cling on to ~25 seats just to hold the very narrowest of seat leads. In pretty much all of these defences, they are strongly odds against, so either Shadsy is feeling strangely generous, or he feels that betting on CMS is a mug's game. Hmm.

Shadsy may equally be feeling strangely generous in offering Labour most seats at 4/6. But personally I expect that it's not so much a case of him feeling generous in either case as in him setting the odds where he can most tempt bets and keep a balanced book for profit.

Those of us that are unsentimental will place bets that allow us to make a near-guaranteed profit in the event of either Labour most seats or Conservative most seats, with the outside chance of making a profit on both sides of the bets if some Conservatives hold on against a crimson tide.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Bond, isn't there a risk that ignoring a potential annexation/invasion of Ukraine, beyond Crimea, would embolden Putin to try his hand elsewhere? One imagines the Baltic Tigers are watching events with great interest.

Socrates

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

I would have thought basic morality was first on the list of qualities I would look for in a politician I admire. Differing over politics is whether you think markets work better than central planning, not whether human lives are things to play with to project imperialist power.

Carnyx

JackW said:

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

I don't admire any serving Western leader - even Merkel.

Whilst in office I believe the relationship between heads of government and the voters should be that of the lamppost and a dog - we must be in a position to happily and readily piss all over them - least they forget who the real masters are.

Just so. And you will no doubt approve of this sentiment carved in stone at the Scottish Parliament -

When we had a king, and a chancellor, and parliament-men o' our ain, we could aye peeble them wi' stanes when they werena gude bairns - But naebody's nails can reach the length o' Lunnon.
Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832) Mrs Howden in "Heart of Midlothian"

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/21013.aspx

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

AlastairMeeks

Financier said:

@JackW

Well, which Western leader do you admire - apart from Frau Merkel perhaps?

Putin is objective, strategic, has a plan and tries to carry it out - you have to separate the qualities of the man from his politics.

A smart strategist doesn't lose all his influence over a country previously in his orbit and unite a range of other countries who had previously been drifting apart from each other in opposition to him, revitalising a military alliance that is implicitly fundamentally opposed to his interests.

anotherDave

France
""from 60 elected councillors in 2008, the party [Front National] now has more than 12,000"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100265536/france-has-given-up-on-its-politicians-with-good-reason/

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Climate change armageddon appears to be back in the news. From the men who got their last temperature forecasts completely wrong (it's plateaued for 15 years, not risen inexorably), comes a new work of cutting edge fiction.

Has any climate change forecast been proven right? The closest would be 'more unusual weather', but this has also happened countless times in the past, without anyone claiming climate change as the cause (I mean either at the time or retrospectively).

On-topic: it's interesting that Conservatives appear somewhat more positive and less negative ('tactical' makes it sound nicer than just hating something so much that motivates your vote).

While I would certainly criticise elements of the climate change community for poor projections, most of the sceptics can't even get the past right. If you can't apply a basic statistical technique to work out how long the trend has been flat, you don't really have many grounds to criticise others. Richard Tyndall is one of the few willing to concede that the plateau has been for 11 years, not 15/16.

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

Speaking of "lies", have you located that link to the London oil job exodus ?

[Deleted User]

Putin has unequivocally gained Crimea and potentially some of the eastern Ukrainian provinces too. What he has unequivocally lost is the trust of the rest of Ukraine - which will now seek more firmly to align with the EU. So ultimately Putin has 'lost' the Ukraine for good.

Moreover he has exposed rather cruelly how dependent the EU is on Russian energy supplies. A dependence which even the useless EU may now seek to diminish.

Putin seems to me tactically brilliant but strategically stupid.

TheScreamingEagles

Huzzah, England have dropped Jade Dernbach.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, even if it is/were 11 years, that's still entirely contrary to global warming. These days the advocates seem keen to measure everything other than the actual temperature (which has always risen and fallen so long as the Earth has existed).

Mr. Patrick, it depends what happens next. More military adventures are not impossible. What would the EU/US do if Moldova or the rest of Ukraine or the Baltic Tigers were invaded?

Morris_Dancer

F1: don't forget to read my exciting post-race analysis of Malaysia:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html

Bahrain's at the coming weekend. Got a bet in mind but Ladbrokes haven't got the market up yet, and Betfair hasn't quite got going.

Stuart_Dickson

JohnO said:

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

- "reasonably confident that all will be held"

Indeed?

In that case you could be a wealthier man next year. CON win:

Dewsbury 7/2 (PP)
Hove 3/1 (PP)
Stroud 7/4 (Lad)
Northampton N 5/4 (Lad)

BobaFett

@Moniker

Speaking of bluster, you still running a mile from my offer to bet against your forecast that Labour will "struggle to get 28%"? Thought so.

Theuniondivvie

Sharp piece on SLAB by Holyrood magazine, the apolitical journal for the Scottish parliament and its doings.

'Labour’s pains

..With just six months to go to the referendum, Scottish Labour seems moribund. The vote on the welfare cap reveals the inherent flaw because this is a party still ruled by Westminster and it has its eye on the Tory marginals in 2015, not on the housing estates of Scotland where the SNP is meanwhile fighting for independence in 2014. Nationalists made the right strategic decision in opposing the cap – standing up for the disadvantaged, standing up for Scotland. Lamont, unfortunately, is tied to a UK party that still calls the shots and is working to a different electoral timetable.
Jim Murphy told me in 2011, after his party had been defeated for the second time at Holyrood, that people asked themselves ‘what does Labour stand for?’ and they were unable to answer. I fear nothing has changed and time is running out.'

http://tinyurl.com/nnwj44j

Remember PB Unionists, these guys are you footsoldiers in the fight to save the Union (and will be handy scapegoats no doubt).

FrankBooth

Nick Palmer - I'd broady agree with that athough to be honest if people thought Cameron was doing really well they'd probably already be voting Conservative.

It does make me laugh when people complain about Miliband's 35% strategy, as if Cameron is trying a la Major and Thatcher to appeal to 40-45% of the electorate. The budget has given them a boost, but in supporting pensioners there's a danger of there not being much more juice to squeeze out of that lemon.

Richard_Nabavi

NickPalmer said:

More broadly, the poll does show what we've seen here. By contrast to a year or two ago, Tories generally really like the Government - Richard N may be an outrider in thinking it's almost perfect,

I don't think its almost perfect, but I look at its imperfect record in a difficult world, and it's clearly the best for half a century apart from Maggie's. In practice that is as good as we're going to get, especially since the alternative looks to be even worse than Gordon Brown's government.

On which subject, isn't it extraordinary how weak the team around Ed Miliband is? Brown may have been the PM least suited to the job since the post was created, as Anthony Seldon suggested, but at least he had the ferociously talented Peter Mandelson and the solid Alistair Darling in key roles.

BobaFett

@Stuart @JohnO

Fair play to JohnO - he has the cojones to forecast that the Tories will hold all four of "Fett's Four".
Such forecasts from other CMS boosters are conspicuous in their absence.

anotherDave

Easterross said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

UKIP is not a centre right party. Other than its EU/immigration policy (though I agree most see it as its only policy) the pontifications from Nigel Farage have more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.

UKIP is a WASP/WWC party.

The quote below is taken from Mr Farage's "Flying Free" book. Ch 6, p.99:

"Broadly speaking, we believe that an individual has the freedom to live her life as she pleases provided that she harms no one else, that she may elect whom she will to speak for her local community and can remove that person from office if he fails to do so, and that local communities should, where practicable, speak and act as a nation in her best interest"

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Socrates, even if it is/were 11 years, that's still entirely contrary to global warming. These days the advocates seem keen to measure everything other than the actual temperature (which has always risen and fallen so long as the Earth has existed).

It's not entirely contrary to global warming. El Nino cycles, which vary in strength, are generally about 7 or 8 years. If the Earth didn't warm across several of these, then I think you would have a case that it's inconsistency. Over one cycle and a half that's not really valid, and we should use a trend line over a 20 or so year period

Stuart_Dickson

BobaFett said:

@Stuart @JohnO

Fair play to JohnO - he has the cojones to forecast that the Tories will hold all four of "Fett's Four".
Such forecasts from other CMS boosters are conspicuous in their absence.

For a reason.

shadsy

New Euro Elections Tricast betting available shortly at Ladbrokes.

Vote Share Tricast Betting

6/4 UKIP-Lab-Cons
9/4 Lab-UKIP-Cons
7/2 Lab-Cons-UKIP
6 Cons-Lab-UKIP
10 UKIP-Cons-Lab
20 Cons-UKIP-Lab

[Deleted User]

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Patrick, it depends what happens next. More military adventures are not impossible. What would the EU/US do if Moldova or the rest of Ukraine or the Baltic Tigers were invaded?

Nothing. The west is led by the pansiest girlyman imaginable. He likes to 'reset' the button and bow to Saudi princes and the brutal 'realpolitik' of the past is, well, in the past. The EU including the UK are firmly on a 'don't get involved' path. We used to talk quietly and carry a big stick. Now we mouthe off like PC students and are busy defanging ourselves (did you know that Switzerland has 50% more tanks than the UK and French navy is bigger than ours?) So the truth is, for good or bad, that NATO and the west will do nothing. Can do nothing.

Or at least nothing military. We may find some financial means instead. Diplomacy is, after all, just war by another means. But Putin knows full well that there is no credible military sanction to be made, no matter what he does.

BobaFett

shadsy said:

New Euro Elections Tricast betting available shortly at Ladbrokes.

Vote Share Tricast Betting

6/4 UKIP-Lab-Cons
9/4 Lab-UKIP-Cons
7/2 Lab-Cons-UKIP
6 Cons-Lab-UKIP
10 UKIP-Cons-Lab
20 Cons-UKIP-Lab

Speak of the Devil... Good morning Shadsy ;-)

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

At least Farage hero worships a world leader - not some failed magazine hack turned internet troll from the West Country.

TGOHF

BobaFett said:

shadsy said:

New Euro Elections Tricast betting available shortly at Ladbrokes.

Vote Share Tricast Betting

6/4 UKIP-Lab-Cons
9/4 Lab-UKIP-Cons
7/2 Lab-Cons-UKIP
6 Cons-Lab-UKIP
10 UKIP-Cons-Lab
20 Cons-UKIP-Lab

Speak of the Devil... Good morning Shadsy ;-)

20/1 looks generous for the "Ed's gone" option.

Stuart_Dickson

Shadsy, any chance of pricing up some more Scottish seats? Particularly interested in, eg.

- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (only SCon seat)
- Dumfries & Galloway (Con target; 3-way marginal?)
- Banff & Buchan (and other SNP seats if you feel worthwhile?)
- Several SLab seats, including Ochil & SP; Dundee West, Edinburgh SW etc

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

Speaking of "lies", have you located that link to the London oil job exodus ?

back under your rock Monica

Morris_Dancer

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

JohnO

Stuart_Dickson said:

JohnO said:

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

- "reasonably confident that all will be held"

Indeed?

In that case you could be a wealthier man next year. CON win:

Dewsbury 7/2 (PP)
Hove 3/1 (PP)
Stroud 7/4 (Lad)
Northampton N 5/4 (Lad)

Is there a simple link to the Ladbrokes prices - I am tempted to have a flutter.

AlastairMeeks

Mr Dancer, if you're interested in other potential flashpoints in eastern Europe, you might want to research Gagauzia on wikipedia. If Vladimir Putin really wants to make the West squirm, he could do a lot worse than seeing what he could stir up there.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

Sending to children to boarding school at 7?

Grandiose

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

I think that's a BBC gloss. Further down, it says:
"The Children and Young Persons Act of 1933 provides for the punishment of a person who treats a child "in a manner likely to cause him unnecessary suffering or injury to health (including injury to or loss of sight, or hearing, or limb, or organ of the body, and any mental derangement)". Mr Williams's bill would add a further category of harm for which the perpetrator could be punished: impairment of "physical, intellectual, emotional, social or behavioural development".

Which sounds far better.

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

JohnO said:

BobaFett said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

Having been fairly cosy in Coalition together it'll be interesting on the ground during the campaign to note any tactical voting or tacit non aggression from the voters in some seats.

Might open minded Conservatives aid the LibDems even in Con/Libdem targets and indeed vice versa and perhaps more importantly what of the Con/Lab marginals ?

Ah. Just the man I have been looking for.
Which of these four seats do you expect the Tories to hold?

Hove
Dewsbury
Northampton North
Stroud

Not a partisan point, more a financial inquiry...

You asked me that last night but I decided to watch Endeavour!

As I believe there will be a move to the Tories in 2015 (possibly small and thus not an overall majority), then I am reasonably confident that all will be held in such circumstances. Like (I think) RodCrosby, I'll be looking at the national swing as reflected in the polls, rather than the less accurate ones for the marginals.

- "reasonably confident that all will be held"

Indeed?

In that case you could be a wealthier man next year. CON win:

Dewsbury 7/2 (PP)
Hove 3/1 (PP)
Stroud 7/4 (Lad)
Northampton N 5/4 (Lad)

Is there a simple link to the Ladbrokes prices - I am tempted to have a flutter.

The ladbrokes website is as difficult to navigate as is the journey from Dirty Dicks to Elmbridge

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Tactically voting isn't all good though - your party sees a drop in national share and another party benefits.

I choose not to tactically vote LD mainly due to the candidate- Huppert. If it was Danny Alexander I probably would.

Now you are out of hiding flash, what lies have you to peddle today

Speaking of "lies", have you located that link to the London oil job exodus ?

back under your rock Monica

I hope for your sake that it was a mere lie.
Otherwise you're in deep waters.

TheScreamingEagles

Shadsy has put up a buzzword bingo market on the next Clegg v Farage debate.

I like the looks of I married a German @ 16/1 and Retired Colonels @ 20/1

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/N-Clegg-v-N-Farage-BBC-Debate/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z0t43xZ1z141ne/

john_zims

@FrankBooth

' The budget has given them a boost, but in supporting pensioners there's a danger of there not being much more juice to squeeze out of that lemon.'

Surely the boost is to the 50 + category of people coming up to their pensions as existing pensioners will already have had to buy an annuity.

megalomaniacs4u

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...

Who the hell should a Tory voter tactically vote for?

Certainly not Labour, and definitely not LibDem.

One cannot seriously vote for UKIP....

So it is hard as a Tory to vote tactically as all it does is let in one or other bunch of idiots/loons/socialists

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

It's not just you (LIAMT commented upthread). It sounds like an absolutely dreadful piece of legislation. While I expect few parents would actually be prosecuted, almost any parent could be liable to prosecution if a police officer or social worker took exception to the way they bring up their children.

I joined the Conservative Party to oppose this sort of rubbish. The fact that a Conservative-led government should intend to introduce this rubbish makes me very glad I resigned.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Grandiose, that seems somewhat better.

Mr. Antifrank, interesting, and seems separate to the eastern strip of Moldova the news mentioned as the next potential Russian annex.

Mr. Eagles, none of those grab me, to be honest. It'll be interesting to see if the second debate has more impact than the first.

I wonder whether we might end up with a different set of debates at the General Election. One with 4 leaders, two with 3 and one with just Cameron and Miliband.

Sean_F

Easterross said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

Evidence that Tory supporters are still comparatively reluctant to vote tactically, a finding as old as tactical voting itself.

Poor old Tories. Their preferred game is FPTP, but they still haven't learned how to play it...


Btw, Mike, IIUC, the article should read "fewest tactical voters", shouldn't it?

Hitherto, they've not really had anyone to vote tactically for. It's possible that the growth of UKIP changes that.

UKIP is not a centre right party. Other than its EU/immigration policy (though I agree most see it as its only policy) the pontifications from Nigel Farage have more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.

UKIP is a WASP/WWC party.

I've missed the speeches Farage has given about the Jewish Menace, claiming that West Indians eat cat food, and calling for a United States of Europe.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

It's not just you (LIAMT commented upthread). It sounds like an absolutely dreadful piece of legislation. While I expect few parents would actually be prosecuted, almost any parent could be liable to prosecution if a police officer or social worker took exception to the way they bring up their children.

I joined the Conservative Party to oppose this sort of rubbish. The fact that a Conservative-led government should intend to introduce this rubbish makes me very glad I resigned.

I'd like to see the wording of the Government-sponsored amendment before commenting. The Lib Dem MP's wording is pretty hazy, but something suitably tightly-defined would potentially be a very good thing for children.

TheScreamingEagles

Can I share this wonderful bit of rugby skill from Sevens.

Chris Ashton, take note

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O9NhUFoopA

FrankBooth

john_zims said:

@FrankBooth

' The budget has given them a boost, but in supporting pensioners there's a danger of there not being much more juice to squeeze out of that lemon.'

Surely the boost is to the 50 + category of people coming up to their pensions as existing pensioners will already have had to buy an annuity.

There's a savings bond available exclusively to pensioners, is there not? However I did think there might be some resentment from people who've recently taken an annuity, but it's not showing at the moment.

JackW

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

Sending to children to boarding school at 7?

Absolutely disgraceful .... 7 ?!?!? .... Sheer child abuse !!

Get the breastfeeding wet nurse ready at the delivery room and then pack the ankle biters off at 4 years old at the latest and then take them to the Savoy for lunch when they turn 18.

Sound Child Rearing For A Better Britain

Stuart_Dickson

AndyJS said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

North Warwickshire is the most marginal seat in England. Con maj of just 54. The current best prices in this seat, and many other Con-held marginals, indicate that either:

a) Dave Cameron is about to get thumped at the ballot boxes
b) Bookies are philanthropists

I know which answer is the more likely to be true.

Lab 1/3 (Ladbrokes)
Con 7/2 (Paddy Power)

The last time the Tories were returned to power with an overall majority was in 1979. That is 35 years ago. At the rate they are going, with the right-wing vote splitting, it is hard to see the Tories ever being returned to power with an overall majority again. They could not even defeat the hopeless Gordon Brown.

Their coversion to PR cannot therefore be far away.

Have you noticed how low the LD vote is in North Warwickshire? Just 11.6%, less than half the national average. All the polls show most of the swing to Labour is happening because of defectors from the LDs, whereas hardly any voters are crossing directly from Con to Lab.

Also, there is a demographic shift in that area towards the Conservatives, counterbalancing the move to Labour in seats like Edgbaston. I would say that means North Warwickshire is a lot less likely to be Labour's easiest gain than the raw figures imply.

In that case Paddy Power's 7/2 is an outstanding price. If you believe in swingback.

HurstLlama

Grandiose said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it me, or is this horrendously badly drafted?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26814427

"The proposed change to neglect laws in England and Wales would see parents who deny their children affection face prosecution for the first time."

I think that's a BBC gloss. Further down, it says:
"The Children and Young Persons Act of 1933 provides for the punishment of a person who treats a child "in a manner likely to cause him unnecessary suffering or injury to health (including injury to or loss of sight, or hearing, or limb, or organ of the body, and any mental derangement)". Mr Williams's bill would add a further category of harm for which the perpetrator could be punished: impairment of "physical, intellectual, emotional, social or behavioural development".

Which sounds far better.

It might sound better but it as dreadful proposal which if enacted would make miscarriages of justice certain. As Mr. Town points out below the intention is that the offence be made absolute so the prosecution would not need to prove intention or even recklessness. Furthermore the test of harm is subjective. An absolute offence plus a subjective test equals very bad law and innocent people going to prison.