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  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    RobD said:


    I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.

    The important point being "a man" was involved, not necessarily the husband.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JohnO said:

    He did have 4 children!

    You mean his wife had four children, presumably?
    I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.
    Indeed yes. His name was Bob Boothby.

    It's thought the first two children were Macmillan's and he then developed some kind of dysfunction.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:

    There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.

    Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto.
    If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it?
    There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging.
    I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.

    I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.

    Personally I would love to see the back of them.
    Pity the majority that like our money too much do not have the same views
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Northstar said:


    Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......

    Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
    Oh, for the love of God...
    I cannot believe in all seriousness that a party that 40 years ago had heavyweights like Dennis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Jim Callaghan, Tony Benn and Michael Foot all fighting for the leadership and Barbara Castle in the Cabinet has now been reduced to Laura Pidcock and Rebecca Long-Bailey as its likeliest next leader.

    They would be overpromoted leading a local council let alone the country
    A bit like Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, who has evolved from mayor into a nightmare for all reasonably adjusted British citizens....
    Boris went to Balliol, Pidcock and Long-Bailey to Manchester Metropolitan university
    I don't think a classics degree is very useful to being a PM. Maybe this is why he comes out with stupid comments like "Fuck Business". BJ does not have a clue about the world everyone else lives within. He has his own little bubble that creates financial security and the further development of his odd behaviour. Really, if BoJo does not get ousted this week he should at least have his pay cut to Zero as PM. That £100 million he wasted on No Deal advertising is disgusting...
    Gladstone studied Greats as did Macmillan, 2 of our greatest PMs
    Gladstone also of course spent much time with prostitutes although he said he was doing missionary work. (NOT THAT SORT OF MISSIONARY WORK!)

    Macmillan was impotent so that probably wasn't a problem.
    He did have 4 children!
    You mean his wife had four children, presumably?
    I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.
    I am sure you're right that a man would have been involved.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    malcolmg said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:

    There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.

    Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto.
    If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it?
    There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging.
    I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.

    I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.

    Personally I would love to see the back of them.
    Pity the majority that like our money too much do not have the same views
    Can you annex North of Tyne please?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Noo said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:

    There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.

    Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto.
    If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it?
    There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging.
    I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.

    I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.

    Personally I would love to see the back of them.
    Yes, there has been such polling. You are far from alone.
    And what percentage of English people want to "see the back of" the Scots? I'd quite like to see the back of nationalism as a creed, but I see no reason to encourage the Scots to take a decision that would be even worse for them and us than Brexit. Though if English nationalists cause no-deal I can see why the Scots will want independence within the EU, as how could things be much worse? I suspect there will be quite few English based "mock-Jocks" lining up for Scottish nationality, and who could blame them.
    I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.
    No more Kool Aid for this poster.
    you are not a fan of intelligent thinking people Briskin
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Chris said:

    I am sure you're right that a man would have been involved.

    I was talking about this earlier this week in the context of Richard Earl of Cambridge. Born ten years after his two siblings and after his mother and her husband had drifted apart. Not left any land by his 'father' or older brother, taken as a sign that he was really a bastard fathered by the Earl of Huntingdon. He became resentful of his poverty, then foolishly in 1415 rebelled against Henry V and was executed.

    Yet his grandson went on to become King, partly claiming a descent from Edward III in the male line. And his descendants sit on the throne - so far as we can tell - to this day.

    Confusing old world sometimes.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JohnO said:

    He did have 4 children!

    You mean his wife had four children, presumably?
    I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.
    Indeed yes. His name was Bob Boothby.

    It's thought the first two children were Macmillan's and he then developed some kind of dysfunction.
    According to Wikipedia (I know) the common speculation that Boothby was the father of the third child has been disproved. Macmillan certainly went through a devastating depressive period in the 1930s. It was the war, particularly as Minister Resident in the ME, that made him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Noo said:

    I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.

    It's not the football thugs that's the problem. It's the unjustified stupidity of it all. England doesn't suffer from being part of a larger entity where is fails to get its way. It forms the vast majority of the UK, and in terms of the EU, the general centre-right choices of England fit quite nicely with the centrist way Europe has evolved. Certainly, English Conservatives have been instrumental in shaping the single market. England more often than not gets its way*.

    Contrast that with Scotland. How much of your lifetime has been spent with a Tory PM in Downing Street? And in how many elections in the same period of time has Scotland voted Tory? There's a worrying gulf there, and I'm surprised it doesn't trouble more people in Scotland than it evidently does.

    And yet, for all that, which country has decided to turn the table over? It baffles me, both that Scotland isn't more nationalistic and that England isn't less.

    *nobody even think of quoting those "x% of EU laws were opposed by us!" from the referendum. They were all lies.
    England is hardly nationalistic at all. It's one of the most multi-cultural places on earth. The BNP vote is tiny. cf. Scotland with a 95pc white population and a 40pc nationalist vote
    Multi-culturalism isn't the opposite of nationalism. Just look at the US.
    It's a leading indicator - The US is a special case because it uses the world's reserve currency
    What on earth are you on about?
    What? So you're allowed to write drivel but I can't? Two can play at that game.
    I really meant that question. I do not understand what reserve currency has to do with anything.
    You might find what I write drivel, I don't much care, but at least I do try to explain what I mean. That is, someone with a reading age of ten ought to be able to understand what I'm saying and either agree or, more likely, fling heavy objects at me because my opinions are so contemptible. But I just didn't understand your cryptic one-line teleportation into economics.
    Noo it is simple , he is not pretending to be a village idiot.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Noo said:

    There's been a lot of talk about the SNP these last few days, so this is an opportune moment to consider a potential turn of events.

    Say the Conservative & Unionist drop a "give us a majority and we leave without a deal, no referendum" manifesto, and the Liberal Demcrats drop a "give us a majority and we revoke, no referendum" manifesto.
    If the SNP put "give us a majority in Scotland and we negotiate independence, no referendum" in their manifesto, how do the Conservative & Unionists and the Liberal Democrats counter it?
    There is a real chance that the equivocation and doublespeak needed to say "our mandate will count but yours won't" will seriously weaken Tory and Lib Dem messaging.
    I could see both the SNP and Labour doing quite well out of such a situation. Don't know whether it's a card the SNP are considering pulling out of their sleeve, but given the negative noises about an indyref2 (despite a Holyrood mandate), it could be seen as a necessary escalation on their part.

    I don't know if there has ever been polling but I reckon there would be strong support in England for Scottish independence.

    Personally I would love to see the back of them.
    Yes, there has been such polling. You are far from alone.
    And what percentage of English people want to "see the back of" the Scots? I'd quite like to see the back of nationalism as a creed, but I see no reason to encourage the Scots to take a decision that would be even worse for them and us than Brexit. Though if English nationalists cause no-deal I can see why the Scots will want independence within the EU, as how could things be much worse? I suspect there will be quite few English based "mock-Jocks" lining up for Scottish nationality, and who could blame them.
    I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.
    Let's be serious now.
    I'm deadly serious.
    Yes, unfortunately your statement was risible.
    Well, I went onto define and justify it, so you could argue against those points if you wanted to be taken seriously, but I don't think you do, so I won't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Did I mention that I’d tipped this at 55?

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1178330140885032961?s=21

    And note the reason given. Precisely my rationale.

    Interesting that Peston is playing up the risk as seen by Remainers that if they don't act then Johnson could take us out on 31st October. But that means, ironically, that we could eventually get a deal because Remainers blink even when the EU are dismissive of the chances of Johnson leading us out.
    You implied I was being discourteous for suggesting No Dealers were stupid.

    To be honest I don't always know whether it's stupidity or outright dishonesty, but for God's sake, how stupid do you have to be to imply that anyone who doesn't embrace the insanity of No Deal is a "Remainer"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    ydoethur said:

    70% Leave constituency. An insurgent Brexit Party could do quite a lot of damage there. It was also one of the seats that saw the highest swings against Labour in 2010 and 2015.

    That said, given the Liberal Democrats got a princely 639 votes in 2017 there is a lot of ruin she can afford in that seat.

    I think this is one reason why her price is still quite big.

    She has a shot at leader only if Labour are crushed at the polls.

    But if Labour have been crushed at the polls she has probably lost her seat.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    You can keep calling it a “historic 4th term” if you want but it does not make it true.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Noo said:

    I think England is more nationalistic than Scotland.

    ThSNIPut it appearing thuggish/racist. even then it's happened (labour MPs commenting on england flags anyone)
    It's not the football thugs that's the problem. It's the unjustified stupidity of it all. England doesn't suffer from being part of a larger entity where is fails to get its way. It forms the vast majority of the UK, and in terms of the EU, the general centre-right choices of England fit quite nicely with the centrist way Europe has evolved. Certainly, English Conservatives have been instrumental in shaping the single market. England more often than not gets its way*.

    Contrast that with Scotland. How much of your lifetime has been spent with a Tory PM in Downing Street? And in how many elections in the same period of time has Scotland voted Tory? There's a worrying gulf there, and I'm surprised it doesn't trouble more people in Scotland than it evidently does.

    And yet, for all that, which country has decided to turn the table over? It baffles me, both that Scotland isn't more nationalistic and that England isn't less.

    *nobody even think of quoting those "x% of EU laws were opposed by us!" from the referendum. They were all lies.
    England is hardly nationalistic at all. It's one of the most multi-cultural places on earth. The BNP vote is tiny. cf. Scotland with a 95pc white population and a 40pc nationalist vote
    Multi-culturalism isn't the opposite of nationalism. Just look at the US.
    It's a leading indicator - The US is a special case because it uses the world's reserve currency
    What on earth are you on about?
    What? So you're allowed to write drivel but I can't? Two can play at that game.
    I really meant that question. I do not understand what reserve currency has to do with anything.
    You might find what I write drivel, I don't much care, but at least I do try to explain what I mean. That is, someone with a reading age of ten ought to be able to understand what I'm saying and either agree or, more likely, fling heavy objects at me because my opinions are so contemptible. But I just didn't understand your cryptic one-line teleportation into economics.
    I'm watching Super Sunday now. I hope that's not too cryptic for you. Have a good one.
    Slink away and lick your wounds
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I read that as ‘Dominic Cummings’ to begin with and was very confused.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    ydoethur said:

    Here's an interesting statistic though. Since 1894 there have been 25 Prime Ministers. Scotland forming about 12% of the population of the UK, they would proportionately have had three of those, Wales one, and Northern Ireland one.

    Just look however at the number who have been Scottish or of fairly recent Scottish descent (at least one parent from Scotland) whom I have marked with an asterisk:

    The Earl of Rosebery*
    Lord Salisbury
    Arthur Balfour*
    Henry Campbell-Bannerman*
    Herbert Asquith
    David Lloyd George (only Welshman)
    A. Bonar Law* (also, confusingly, the only Northern Irishman and only Canadian)
    Stanley Baldwin*
    Ramsay Macdonald*
    Neville Chamberlain
    Winston Churchill
    Clement Attlee
    Anthony Eden
    Harold Macmillan (counted as English although his grandfather was Scottish)
    Earl of Home*
    Harold Wilson
    Edward Heath
    James Callaghan
    Margaret Thatcher
    John Major
    Tony Blair*
    Gordon Brown*
    David Cameron*
    Theresa May
    Boris Johnson

    That's 10, or 40%, of PMs with close ties to Scotland. Far above the proportion you might expect and actually quite close to the number of English PMs (14).

    If you're going to say Scotland forms 12% of the UK population, and ask whether they are over-represented among PMs, you have to compare like with like. You can't just say 40% have "close ties" if they aren't actually part of the 12%.

    Looking at recent examples, Blair hadn't lived in Scotland for 25 years by the time he became PM, and indeed didn't even spend the majority of his childhood there (he was educated at Fettes - an independent school so not really indicative of your point about the education system).

    Brown I'll give you - plainly a Scot and part of the 12%.

    Cameron wasn't born in Scotland, brought up there, or educated there. He represented a constituency in the south of England. The only tenuous connection is via his father, who himself left Scotland at a relatively young age. To call him Scottish and compare him in some way with the 12% of the population who live in Scotland is just silly.

    Think of it this way, in the period since 1945, if someone said "You know the PM?" and you said, "The Scot? Yes, I know them", they'd look at you as if you were an idiot unless it was 1963-4 or 2007-10 (i.e. six years out of 74).
    Exactly pure bollox from Ydoethur, just because they went to Scotland once or had a cousin twice removed lived there does not make them Scottish. Usual unionist bollox propaganda.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JohnO said:

    He did have 4 children!

    You mean his wife had four children, presumably?
    I'm not an expert in such matters, but I think a man is involved at some stage of the process.
    Indeed yes. His name was Bob Boothby.

    It's thought the first two children were Macmillan's and he then developed some kind of dysfunction.
    According to Wikipedia (I know) the common speculation that Boothby was the father of the third child has been disproved. Macmillan certainly went through a devastating depressive period in the 1930s. It was the war, particularly as Minister Resident in the ME, that made him.
    What 'common speculation?' It was Dorothy Macmillan herself who claimed it!

    As for being disproved, nobody seems to have been quite sure whether to believe it or not, but Macmillan's name wasn't on the birth certificate. It certainly hasn't been 'disproved' so far as I know, and the source cited in Wikipedia does not in fact make any such dramatic claim.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    I am sure you're right that a man would have been involved.

    I was talking about this earlier this week in the context of Richard Earl of Cambridge. Born ten years after his two siblings and after his mother and her husband had drifted apart. Not left any land by his 'father' or older brother, taken as a sign that he was really a bastard fathered by the Earl of Huntingdon. He became resentful of his poverty, then foolishly in 1415 rebelled against Henry V and was executed.

    Yet his grandson went on to become King, partly claiming a descent from Edward III in the male line. And his descendants sit on the throne - so far as we can tell - to this day.

    Confusing old world sometimes.
    The body of Richard III was - apparently - identified by mitochondrial DNA, which of course is passed along the maternal line. The comparison based on the Y chromosome - passed along the male line - didn't work. Somewhere along the pedigree "a bitch got over the wall."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    A very stupid comment from Hancock. Asking to be corrected.
  • HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    You might see one before the week is out.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
    Lovely. It's just that according to you it was all going to have happened by now. Or did I misunderstand?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    I am sure you're right that a man would have been involved.

    I was talking about this earlier this week in the context of Richard Earl of Cambridge. Born ten years after his two siblings and after his mother and her husband had drifted apart. Not left any land by his 'father' or older brother, taken as a sign that he was really a bastard fathered by the Earl of Huntingdon. He became resentful of his poverty, then foolishly in 1415 rebelled against Henry V and was executed.

    Yet his grandson went on to become King, partly claiming a descent from Edward III in the male line. And his descendants sit on the throne - so far as we can tell - to this day.

    Confusing old world sometimes.
    The body of Richard III was - apparently - identified by mitochondrial DNA, which of course is passed along the maternal line. The comparison based on the Y chromosome - passed along the male line - didn't work. Somewhere along the pedigree "a bitch got over the wall."
    In fact it's probably more complicated than that. I don't think any serious scholar believes Richard Earl of Cambridge was the son of Edmund Duke of York. So that accounts for the break on its own. But that doesn't mean there are not further breaks elsewhere as well. In fact, there almost certainly are, and I seem to recall the tests showed a false paternity event among the Somerset family even apart from this.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Don't underestimate the ability of the Labour Party to regenerate itself as a more centrist movement. who in 1983 would have thought that Kinnock would have come close in 1992 or how well Blair did in 1997. once the hard left have lost a couple of elections it will swing back towards the centre.

    The other thing to remember that the policies of Corbyn and McDonnell are actually quite popular among the young but the messengers are not. If they can get a leader with some charisma then they have a chance of winning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    You might see one before the week is out.
    The LDs will veto Corbyn and Beckett as PM would just split Labour in 2 even further
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
    Lovely. It's just that according to you it was all going to have happened by now. Or did I misunderstand?
    You misunderstood
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    spudgfsh said:

    Noo said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Noo said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Noo said:

    I should clarify that a great number of people in England aren't necessarily English nationalists. Many are British nationalists.

    15 to 20 years ago that was probably true and I would have agreed with it. the rise of the SNP and the indyref has changed that. The concept of Britishness for a long time was equivalent to Englishness but it's not true anymore. Britishness as an identity is dying out. The younger generation is more likely to consider themselves European than British
    I agree with you that Britishness is in a squeeze between English/Scottish/Welshness and Europeanness.
    A few years ago I would have unthinkingly identified as British, but that's not nationalism, that's just identity. It's only when you apply your identity to your beliefs in the governing unit in which you'd like to live that it becomes nationalism. So people can be pro-Europe and identify very strongly as British and that's not nationalism. Conversely you can "feel" European but decide on balance that Britain should be out of the EU. That /is/ nationalism.
    Indeed, but without an identity binding the country together the UK will break up over the longer term.
    Is that a bad thing?
    No, we are clearly going in different directions

    Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.

    I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.
    LOL, unionist tactic number 1 , get the plebs to be against each other and we can keep milking them. You morons voted for them and get what you deserve, we have never voted for them but have to suck it up.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Some people who need life-saving medication mightn't see another PM at all in their lifetimes, if we leave without a deal in a month.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Your daily reminder that Corbyn doesn't have the numbers........
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Don't underestimate the ability of the Labour Party to regenerate itself as a more centrist movement. who in 1983 would have thought that Kinnock would have come close in 1992 or how well Blair did in 1997. once the hard left have lost a couple of elections it will swing back towards the centre.

    The other thing to remember that the policies of Corbyn and McDonnell are actually quite popular among the young but the messengers are not. If they can get a leader with some charisma then they have a chance of winning.
    Had Benn beaten Healey as Labour Deputy Leader in 1981 the SDP-Liberal Alliance may well have beaten Foot's Labour in 1983 (it ended up SDP 25% Foot's Labour 27%), Corbyn and McDonnell have given the LDs a second chance to replace Labour as the main non Tory Party and this time they will probably take it
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited September 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    I am sure you're right that a man would have been involved.

    I was talking about this earlier this week in the context of Richard Earl of Cambridge. Born ten years after his two siblings and after his mother and her husband had drifted apart. Not left any land by his 'father' or older brother, taken as a sign that he was really a bastard fathered by the Earl of Huntingdon. He became resentful of his poverty, then foolishly in 1415 rebelled against Henry V and was executed.

    Yet his grandson went on to become King, partly claiming a descent from Edward III in the male line. And his descendants sit on the throne - so far as we can tell - to this day.

    Confusing old world sometimes.
    The body of Richard III was - apparently - identified by mitochondrial DNA, which of course is passed along the maternal line. The comparison based on the Y chromosome - passed along the male line - didn't work. Somewhere along the pedigree "a bitch got over the wall."
    In fact it's probably more complicated than that. I don't think any serious scholar believes Richard Earl of Cambridge was the son of Edmund Duke of York. So that accounts for the break on its own. But that doesn't mean there are not further breaks elsewhere as well. In fact, there almost certainly are, and I seem to recall the tests showed a false paternity event among the Somerset family even apart from this.
    I didn't mean to imply that exactly one bitch got over the wall.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Some people who need life-saving medication mightn't see another PM at all in their lifetimes, if we leave without a deal in a month.
    A small price to pay for "getting Brexit done," no doubt.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    The more the public hears what Trump has done, the more they'll turn against him.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:


    No, we are clearly going in different directions

    Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.

    I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.

    LOL, unionist tactic number 1 , get the plebs to be against each other and we can keep milking them. You morons voted for them and get what you deserve, we have never voted for them but have to suck it up.
    As I said, we are going in different directions. I never said that our direction was strictly the correct one. Scotland had it's chance to leave (and will probably get another sometime soon).
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    "Just 28% say Trump's actions were proper"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
    Lovely. It's just that according to you it was all going to have happened by now. Or did I misunderstand?
    You misunderstood
    Well, I did ask you over and over again how the negotiations, the referendum and the general election could all possibly fit in before 31 October.

    If you really don't remember my asking you that, over and over again, I would urge you to seek medical help. I really would.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Danny565 said:

    I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.

    If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.

    If she gets the gig, then nominting Corbyn will look like the ultimate example of playing the long game.....

    Danny565 said:

    I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.

    If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.

    If she gets the gig, then nominting Corbyn will look like the ultimate example of playing the long game.....
    Ha! That’s excellent. 👏
  • Danny565 said:

    I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.

    If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.

    If she gets the gig, then nominting Corbyn will look like the ultimate example of playing the long game.....

    Danny565 said:

    I've always liked Ma Beckett -- she feels like the best of Labour in that she has some principles and doesn't just cave in on any policy when the right-wing press starts screaming, but also still has some commonsense and knows where to draw the line. Basically, she's Ed Miliband with more backbone/worldliness.

    If she does become caretaker PM, personally I think she might be surprisingly popular.

    If she gets the gig, then nominting Corbyn will look like the ultimate example of playing the long game.....
    Ha! That’s excellent. 👏
    The screenwriter of Brexit: The Uncivil War 2 must be praying for this.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Don't underestimate the ability of the Labour Party to regenerate itself as a more centrist movement. who in 1983 would have thought that Kinnock would have come close in 1992 or how well Blair did in 1997. once the hard left have lost a couple of elections it will swing back towards the centre.

    The other thing to remember that the policies of Corbyn and McDonnell are actually quite popular among the young but the messengers are not. If they can get a leader with some charisma then they have a chance of winning.
    Had Benn beaten Healey as Labour Deputy Leader in 1981 the SDP-Liberal Alliance may well have beaten Foot's Labour in 1983 (it ended up SDP 25% Foot's Labour 27%), Corbyn and McDonnell have given the LDs a second chance to replace Labour as the main non Tory Party and this time they will probably take it
    but labour have 500000 members... seriously though I think that the unions would have to stop supporting Labour for it to happen long term. I can see it happening in a single election though
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Northstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Sunday Times reports that internal Labour polling is predicting 100 seat losses. It says Labour has lost a third of its 2017 vote to the LDs and another 10% to the Brexit Party.

    So if it's internal polling, why is it appearing?
    1. A deliberate leak, in which case there may not even be such polling, motivated maybe by expectations management to allow Jeremy to emerge triumphant when the loss is limited to 30 or so seats, or to keep MPs onside as he chooses not to VONC (although I can't see why Corbyn would need to), or if not what else?
    2. It's a genuine leak, for whatever motive, and the polling exists.

    Regardless, it's fairly consistent with some but not all published polls.
    Labour's determination not to have an election might give you a steer.......
    Times is saying Laura Pidcock vs Rebecca Long-Bailey for Corbyn's successor - any tips on who’d win that particular match-up?
    Oh, for the love of God...
    Well Labour could do much worse than Rebecca. She’s a smart, impeccably presented, self-made northern lady. She is by no means the finished article but she’s of the left but with the ability to reach out to moderates.

    Pidcock is a ranting trot.

    Ergo, it will be Pidders!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    .
    Noo said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    "Just 28% say Trump's actions were proper"
    Isn't the definition of the base the voters who will vote for him no matter what?
  • An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:


    No, we are clearly going in different directions

    Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.

    I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.

    LOL, unionist tactic number 1 , get the plebs to be against each other and we can keep milking them. You morons voted for them and get what you deserve, we have never voted for them but have to suck it up.
    As I said, we are going in different directions. I never said that our direction was strictly the correct one. Scotland had it's chance to leave (and will probably get another sometime soon).
    Still don't understand why England votes in these arseholes either though.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:


    No, we are clearly going in different directions

    Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.

    I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.

    LOL, unionist tactic number 1 , get the plebs to be against each other and we can keep milking them. You morons voted for them and get what you deserve, we have never voted for them but have to suck it up.
    As I said, we are going in different directions. I never said that our direction was strictly the correct one. Scotland had it's chance to leave (and will probably get another sometime soon).
    Still don't understand why England votes in these arseholes either though.
    English Exceptionalism.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A vanishingly rare specimen Alastair!
  • It is impossible to believe that a man who has routinely cheated on his wives and refused to take responsibility when he’s got his mistresses pregnant could possibly be the kind of person who feels he has the right to grope young women who work for him.
  • spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Don't underestimate the ability of the Labour Party to regenerate itself as a more centrist movement. who in 1983 would have thought that Kinnock would have come close in 1992 or how well Blair did in 1997. once the hard left have lost a couple of elections it will swing back towards the centre.

    The other thing to remember that the policies of Corbyn and McDonnell are actually quite popular among the young but the messengers are not. If they can get a leader with some charisma then they have a chance of winning.
    Had Benn beaten Healey as Labour Deputy Leader in 1981 the SDP-Liberal Alliance may well have beaten Foot's Labour in 1983 (it ended up SDP 25% Foot's Labour 27%), Corbyn and McDonnell have given the LDs a second chance to replace Labour as the main non Tory Party and this time they will probably take it
    but labour have 500000 members... seriously though I think that the unions would have to stop supporting Labour for it to happen long term. I can see it happening in a single election though
    Good point about the Unions, quite a lot of cash there.
    Wasn't there some talk about some businessmen going to back a new Centre Party with millions - I wonder if any are now backing Jo Swinson.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    It is impossible to believe that a man who has routinely cheated on his wives and refused to take responsibility when he’s got his mistresses pregnant could possibly be the kind of person who feels he has the right to grope young women who work for him.

    Doesn't really matter, cant be proven either way so it will just be seen as evidence of either impropriety or a witchhunt depending on your view of him as is
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    spudgfsh said:


    No, we are clearly going in different directions

    Also, from the English point of view there is the perception, regardless of how true it actually is, that we are subsidising the Scots / Welsh / NI through the Barnett formula to the detriment to our own less well off regions.

    I grew up in Norfolk which has consistently been at the bottom of the pile when it comes to funding (and East Anglia as a whole) and it's infuriating that Scotland can have 'Free this', 'Free that' and 'free the other' when we can't get a decent road connection to the midlands.

    LOL, unionist tactic number 1 , get the plebs to be against each other and we can keep milking them. You morons voted for them and get what you deserve, we have never voted for them but have to suck it up.
    As I said, we are going in different directions. I never said that our direction was strictly the correct one. Scotland had it's chance to leave (and will probably get another sometime soon).
    Still don't understand why England votes in these arseholes either though.
    Scotland is a more socially democratic nation by default. It's why they voted in Labour for so many years and in such numbers. the SNP are not too far off what Labour was before EdM.

    England is by contrast (small c) conservative by nature. There have been no alternatives to the Tories. It is why Blair did so well in 97 and 01 and why Kinnock came close in 92. they moved into the more (small c) conservative area of the spectrum. David Cameron was in that area but unfortunately there were a lot of nutters in his party who weren't and we know where that led.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Don't underestimate the ability of the Labour Party to regenerate itself as a more centrist movement. who in 1983 would have thought that Kinnock would have come close in 1992 or how well Blair did in 1997. once the hard left have lost a couple of elections it will swing back towards the centre.

    The other thing to remember that the policies of Corbyn and McDonnell are actually quite popular among the young but the messengers are not. If they can get a leader with some charisma then they have a chance of winning.
    Had Benn beaten Healey as Labour Deputy Leader in 1981 the SDP-Liberal Alliance may well have beaten Foot's Labour in 1983 (it ended up SDP 25% Foot's Labour 27%), Corbyn and McDonnell have given the LDs a second chance to replace Labour as the main non Tory Party and this time they will probably take it
    but labour have 500000 members... seriously though I think that the unions would have to stop supporting Labour for it to happen long term. I can see it happening in a single election though
    The Unions are a pale shadow of their former selves, already at least one poll this month has had the LDs ahead of Labour
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    @HYUFD

    Hard Left Social Democracy is a mixed but mainly market economy with high tax & spend, strong regs, benignly active state, no trident, egalitarian social and educational policy, generally woke, anti US until they see sense and ditch Trump.

    No contradiction in terms there.
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    HYUFD said:


    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election.

    (Plus Corbyn is a hard left Socialist, hard left Social Democracy is a contradiction in terms and the LDs may be social democrats, Corbyn Labour certainly are not).

    2021 next Labour Prime Minister born.

    Next Labour Deputy PM maybe, I think I may never see another Labour PM again in my lifetime as a result of Corbyn
    Some people who need life-saving medication mightn't see another PM at all in their lifetimes, if we leave without a deal in a month.
    Boris may get the record as shortest serving PM, only to lose it immediately to Mrs Beckett or Ken Clarke.
    So, 2nd shortest serving PM - couldn't even do that right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    In other news, Newcastle United are doing very well as usual I see.

    It was a bit soggy! Good start to the season and everybody in superb form. I think Rogers is going to get some points next week at Anfield.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    That's not what "base" means.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
    This is news to nobody that Boris likes women, his supporters do not care just as Trump's did not care
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited September 2019
    Danny565 said:

    Surely "I believe my boss is a sex pest, but I'm going to carry on working for him anyway" is if anything even more spineless than just fingers-in-ears denial?
    I yield to know one in my opinion of Matt H. being a self serving little creep, but he could have gone down the know nothing, no comment route (& I'm slightly surprised he didn't).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited September 2019
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
    Lovely. It's just that according to you it was all going to have happened by now. Or did I misunderstand?
    You misunderstood
    Well, I did ask you over and over again how the negotiations, the referendum and the general election could all possibly fit in before 31 October.

    If you really don't remember my asking you that, over and over again, I would urge you to seek medical help. I really would.
    See an example of what you posted, courtesy of the magic of Google, below. Please get help.

    HYUFD Posts: 61,758
    June 26

    StuartDickson said:

    » show previous quotes
    A Canada style FTA needs a deal. The EU have disbanded their negotiating team. How are you going to agree a new deal before Halloween?

    By passing the Withdrawal Agreement by winning a Tory majority, removing the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed not Barnier and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop which Barnier does require
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/26/yougov-finds-just-28-wanting-a-no-deal-against-43-wanting-to-remain/
  • HYUFD said:

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
    This is news to nobody that Boris likes women, his supporters do not care just as Trump's did not care
    Trump doesn't like women. He likes assaulting women. Which is the opposite of liking women.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    That's not what "base" means.
    45% of voters disapprove of impeachment on that poll just posted, Trump got 46.1% in 2016 ie almost identical when he won the EC and the presidency
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
    This is news to nobody that Boris likes women, his supporters do not care just as Trump's did not care
    I like women too but I have never been accused of sexually assaulting anyone.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    but labour have 500000 members... seriously though I think that the unions would have to stop supporting Labour for it to happen long term. I can see it happening in a single election though

    The Unions are a pale shadow of their former selves, already at least one poll this month has had the LDs ahead of Labour
    That is with as much because of Corbyn than Labour as a brand though
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
    This is news to nobody that Boris likes women, his supporters do not care just as Trump's did not care
    People who "like" X generally tend to respect X.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kinabalu said:

    @HYUFD

    Hard Left Social Democracy is a mixed but mainly market economy with high tax & spend, strong regs, benignly active state, no trident, egalitarian social and educational policy, generally woke, anti US until they see sense and ditch Trump.

    No contradiction in terms there.

    No that is hard left socialism and Corbyn and McDonnell want a nationalised state dominated economy as the end goal and to defeat capitalism in McDonnell's own words, not even a mixed economy
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    That's not what "base" means.
    45% of voters disapprove of impeachment on that poll just posted, Trump got 46.1% in 2016 ie almost identical when he won the EC and the presidency
    Yeah you still don't understand what base means, do you?
  • Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    It's quite a sticky problem for the Democrats, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, because there's more than positioning for 2020 at stake.

    I think Nancy Pelosi has essentially decided impeachment talk does indeed risk solidify Trump's base.

    BUT he's not really given them an option. The prima facie case for impeachment is strong and necessitates an inquiry. Even on what the White House has admitted, it's extremely smelly. And they've every reason to try to admit as little as possible - indeed, there are all the signs of a cover up.

    If you let it go, you may well still lose in 2020, and you've got another five years of Trump stretching legality and the constitution to and perhaps beyond breaking point. You almost have to look into it to get the White House as a whole (not Trump himself - he's beyond caring) to exercise caution, restraining the Orange One as far as they can.

    It's also a constitutional responsibility of Congress to act as a check in this way, whether or not it yields electoral gain (and I think Pelosi is sceptical it will). That's often overlooked. An interesting aspect of the UK Supreme Court ruling which hasn't really cut through, and probably doesn't matter too much electorally, is just that. The most damning part of the judgment was that the PM has constitutional responsibilities (to the monarch and others) transcending electoral considerations and his role as party leader, and that these were simply ignored. So it is in the US - there need to be people saying, "I'm a Congressman and, regardless of electoral consequence, my job is to investigate apparent illegality on the part of the Executive".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper got just 17% from Labour members in 2015 when she was near favourite to be next leader, why would Labour go back to her now? Labour is probably done as the main non Tory Party in the UK and infected by Corbynism now throughout, within a decade the LDs will probably have taken that role

    It wasn't a prediction. Just a long shot bet in my book that I think is value.

    If you want a prediction I'm happy to give one -

    GE in 2020. Labour landslide. Corbyn PM for a decade. Brexit cancelled but forgotten very quickly in the national euphoria as hard left social democracy proves irresistibly attractive to all.
    If you want my prediction -

    GE in November Boris wins a historic 4th term for the Tories and a Tory majority of 30 to 40, Brexit delivered with the WA and NI only backstop passed through the Commons, LDs surge to 50 seats, Corbyn Labour collapse to under 200 seats.

    Chuka Umunna then emerges as the new LD leader and next non Tory PM as Labour collapse to third under the leadership of Pidcock or Long-Bailey (who succeed the defeated Corbyn as Labour leader in 2020) at the next general election

    We'll file that for future reference, along with your prediction of Boris Johnson achieving a deal, approved by a Northern Ireland referendum, by 31 October.
    Do and I have always said it will take a Tory majority for Boris to get his deal through (with confirmatory NI referendum too if needed)
    Lovely. It's just that according to you it was all going to have happened by now. Or did I misunderstand?
    You misunderstood
    Well, I did ask you over andlp. I really would.
    See an example of what you posted, courtesy of the magic of Google, below. Please get help.

    HYUFD Posts: 61,758
    June 26

    StuartDickson said:

    » show previous quotes
    A Canada style FTA needs a deal. The EU have disbanded their negotiating team. How are you going to agree a new deal before Halloween?

    By passing the Withdrawal Agreement by winning a Tory majority, removing the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed not Barnier and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop which Barnier does require
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/26/yougov-finds-just-28-wanting-a-no-deal-against-43-wanting-to-remain/
    So no mention at all of this being done without a Tory majority at a general election, thanks for giving full and complete 100% confirmation of what I have just said!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @HYUFD

    Hard Left Social Democracy is a mixed but mainly market economy with high tax & spend, strong regs, benignly active state, no trident, egalitarian social and educational policy, generally woke, anti US until they see sense and ditch Trump.

    No contradiction in terms there.

    No that is hard left socialism
    You can add "socialism" to the list of things you don't understand.
    - like
    - base
    - socialism
    It's not going well for you this evening, is it?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @HYUFD

    Hard Left Social Democracy is a mixed but mainly market economy with high tax & spend, strong regs, benignly active state, no trident, egalitarian social and educational policy, generally woke, anti US until they see sense and ditch Trump.

    No contradiction in terms there.

    No that is hard left socialism and Corbyn and McDonnell want a nationalised state dominated economy as the end goal and to defeat capitalism in McDonnell's own words, not even a mixed economy
    Can they have that and still be remainers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
    Emerson College poll from July

    Trump 51% Warren 49%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @HYUFD

    Hard Left Social Democracy is a mixed but mainly market economy with high tax & spend, strong regs, benignly active state, no trident, egalitarian social and educational policy, generally woke, anti US until they see sense and ditch Trump.

    No contradiction in terms there.

    No that is hard left socialism and Corbyn and McDonnell want a nationalised state dominated economy as the end goal and to defeat capitalism in McDonnell's own words, not even a mixed economy
    Can they have that and still be remainers?
    No which is why in reality they are not but back a Labour magic Brexit Deal
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
    Emerson College poll from July

    Trump 51% Warren 49%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/
    It is now the end of September.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
    Emerson College poll from July

    Trump 51% Warren 49%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/
    So from slightly before this latest scandal blew up..
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    It's quite a sticky problem for the Democrats, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, because there's more than positioning for 2020 at stake.

    I think Nancy Pelosi has essentially decided impeachment talk does indeed risk solidify Trump's base.

    BUT he's not really given them an option. The prima facie case for impeachment is strong and necessitates an inquiry. Even on what the White House has admitted, it's extremely smelly. And they've every reason to try to admit as little as possible - indeed, there are all the signs of a cover up.

    If you let it go, you may well still lose in 2020, and you've got another five years of Trump stretching legality and the constitution to and perhaps beyond breaking point. You almost have to look into it to get the White House as a whole (not Trump himself - he's beyond caring) to exercise caution, restraining the Orange One as far as they can.

    It's also a constitutional responsibility of Congress to act as a check in this way, whether or not it yields electoral gain (and I think Pelosi is sceptical it will). That's often overlooked. An interesting aspect of the UK Supreme Court ruling which hasn't really cut through, and probably doesn't matter too much electorally, is just that. The most damning part of the judgment was that the PM has constitutional responsibilities (to the monarch and others) transcending electoral considerations and his role as party leader, and that these were simply ignored. So it is in the US - there need to be people saying, "I'm a Congressman and, regardless of electoral consequence, my job is to investigate apparent illegality on the part of the Executive".
    Very good post.
    It would be a total abrogation of their duty if congress didn't investigate.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    It's quite a sticky problem for the Democrats, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, because there's more than positioning for 2020 at stake.

    I think Nancy Pelosi has essentially decided impeachment talk does indeed risk solidify Trump's base.

    BUT he's not really given them an option. The prima facie case for impeachment is strong and necessitates an inquiry. Even on what the White House has admitted, it's extremely smelly. And they've every reason to try to admit as little as possible - indeed, there are all the signs of a cover up.

    If you let it go, you may well still lose in 2020, and you've got another five years of Trump stretching legality and the constitution to and perhaps beyond breaking point. You almost have to look into it to get the White House as a whole (not Trump himself - he's beyond caring) to exercise caution, restraining the Orange One as far as they can.

    It's also a constitutional responsibility of Congress to act as a check in this way, whether or not it yields electoral gain (and I think Pelosi is sceptical it will). That's often overlooked. An interesting aspect of the UK Supreme Court ruling which hasn't really cut through, and probably doesn't matter too much electorally, is just that. The most damning part of the judgment was that the PM has constitutional responsibilities (to the monarch and others) transcending electoral considerations and his role as party leader, and that these were simply ignored. So it is in the US - there need to be people saying, "I'm a Congressman and, regardless of electoral consequence, my job is to investigate apparent illegality on the part of the Executive".
    I'm not sure the cover up angle will last. Susan Rice has admitted Obama's calls often went on the same secret server as Trumps in the whistleblower complaint and lets not forget that begins with the line 'I was not personally witness to most of the events'
    This damages Biden and impeachment doesn't get past the Senate.
    Then 'witchhunt' gathers momentum with the base and right leaners
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
    Emerson College poll from July

    Trump 51% Warren 49%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/
    It is now the end of September.
    So, 51% is still a higher ceiling than 46%
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    An Isabel Oakeshott tweet that’s actually worth taking note of:

    https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1178368722651815937?s=21

    A woman problem aye
    This is news to nobody that Boris likes women, his supporters do not care just as Trump's did not care
    Trump doesn't like women. He likes assaulting women. Which is the opposite of liking women.
    Making them uncomfortable and upset and not caring a damn about doing that, how exactly can that be spun positively; other than pointing to the double digit poll leads and best PM ratings and shrugging, suck it down losers?
  • Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21
  • Noo said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    "Just 28% say Trump's actions were proper"
    I think the dangerous bit is that there are 10-15% of (traditional conservative middle class) voters who are intellectually capable of discerning that his actions were improper but are not inhibited by this fact to nevertheless vote for him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    His base is 40%....
    No it is the 46% he got in 2016
    46% is Trump's ceiling, not his base.
    Emerson College poll from July

    Trump 51% Warren 49%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/
    July?

    Only from the PB Trumpton.






    Only on PB.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21

    We had all this in the leadership campaign, Tories and Leavers just do not care, this is just another attempt to distract and try and prevent Brexit being delivered and stop Boris
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    It's quite a sticky problem for the Democrats, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, because there's more than positioning for 2020 at stake.

    I think Nancy Pelosi has essentially decided impeachment talk does indeed risk solidify Trump's base.

    BUT he's not really given them an option. The prima facie case for impeachment is strong and necessitates an inquiry. Even on what the White House has admitted, it's extremely smelly. And they've every reason to try to admit as little as possible - indeed, there are all the signs of a cover up.

    If you let it go, you may well still lose in 2020, and you've got another five years of Trump stretching legality and the constitution to and perhaps beyond breaking point. You almost have to look into it to get the White House as a whole (not Trump himself - he's beyond caring) to exercise caution, restraining the Orange One as far as they can.

    It's also a constitutional responsibility of Congress to act as a check in this way, whether or not it yields electoral gain (and I think Pelosi is sceptical it will). That's often overlooked. An interesting aspect of the UK Supreme Court ruling which hasn't really cut through, and probably doesn't matter too much electorally, is just that. The most damning part of the judgment was that the PM has constitutional responsibilities (to the monarch and others) transcending electoral considerations and his role as party leader, and that these were simply ignored. So it is in the US - there need to be people saying, "I'm a Congressman and, regardless of electoral consequence, my job is to investigate apparent illegality on the part of the Executive".
    I'm not sure the cover up angle will last. Susan Rice has admitted Obama's calls often went on the same secret server as Trumps in the whistleblower complaint and lets not forget that begins with the line 'I was not personally witness to most of the events'
    This damages Biden and impeachment doesn't get past the Senate.
    Then 'witchhunt' gathers momentum with the base and right leaners
    It doesn't matter too much whether they think the senate will convict. Congress has a duty here, and it'll throw sunlight on the administration. That in itself will have a disinfecting effect.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21

    What actually comes of it other than entrenchment of peoples views? It's not like proof of a thigh grope 20 years ago is in any way possible. She says he did he says he didn't. Nothing therefore can come of the story
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    What other damage could stop gap PM do to team Boris? Could they release or unredact governments highly damaging to the election hopes?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21

    We had all this in the leadership campaign, Tories and Leavers just do not care, this is just another attempt to distract and try and prevent Brexit being delivered and stop Boris
    Doesn’t that say something about them? Are you really saying that Tories and Leavers do not care about sexual assault?
  • HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21

    We had all this in the leadership campaign, Tories and Leavers just do not care, this is just another attempt to distract and try and prevent Brexit being delivered and stop Boris
    All on-message transatlantically from Trump to Boris, I see.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Noo said:

    Alistair said:

    But IMPeachMent Will just s0l1dify his base

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1178341257082527745?s=19

    It's quite a sticky problem for the Democrats, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, because there's more than positioning for 2020 at stake.

    I think Nancy Pelosi has essentially decided impeachment talk does indeed risk solidify Trump's base.

    BUT he's not really given them an option. The prima facie case for impeachment is strong and necessitates an inquiry. Even on what the White House has admitted, it's extremely smelly. And they've every reason to try to admit as little as possible - indeed, there are all the signs of a cover up.

    If you let it go, you may well still lose in 2020, and you've got another five years of Trump stretching legality and the constitution to and perhaps beyond breaking point. You almost have to look into it to get the White House as a whole (not Trump himself - he's beyond caring) to exercise caution, restraining the Orange One as far as they can.

    It's also a constitutional responsibility of Congress to act as a check in this way, whether or not it yields electoral gain (and I think Pelosi is sceptical it will). That's often overlooked. An interesting aspect of the UK Supreme Court ruling which hasn't really cut through, and probably doesn't matter too much electorally, is just that. The most damning part of the judgment was that the PM has constitutional responsibilities (to the monarch and others) transcending electoral considerations and his role as party leader, and that these were simply ignored. So it is in the US - there need to be people saying, "I'm a Congressman and, regardless of electoral consequence, my job is to investigate apparent illegality on the part of the Executive".
    I'm not sure the cover up angle will last. Susan Rice has admitted Obama's calls often went on the same secret server as Trumps in the whistleblower complaint and lets not forget that begins with the line 'I was not personally witness to most of the events'
    This damages Biden and impeachment doesn't get past the Senate.
    Then 'witchhunt' gathers momentum with the base and right leaners
    It doesn't matter too much whether they think the senate will convict. Congress has a duty here, and it'll throw sunlight on the administration. That in itself will have a disinfecting effect.
    True. It will also sink Biden and his son
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile, BoristheSpidergate is not going away:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1178372335784615936?s=21

    We had all this in the leadership campaign, Tories and Leavers just do not care, this is just another attempt to distract and try and prevent Brexit being delivered and stop Boris
    "Tories and Leavers just do not care" has to be the truest thing you have said for a while.

    Edit: I'd like to retract that... there are plenty of Tories and Leavers who do care about such things.
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