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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets
While we have been mostly focused on the high octane politics currently in the UK there’ve been big developments in the US which raise questions over whether Donald Trump will win a second term in November 2020.
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What's fascinating is the political premise used for the future. The election it is clearly aimed is one where Boris has a deal and we have quite possibly left the EU.
Boris' deal is described as " The Surrender Treaty " and " Mrs May's deal in a blond wig ". It then simply reframes the classic Leave/Remain debate as The Surrender Treaty vs " a Clean Break ".
In my mind itt's clearly aimed an election where the Brexit Party is standing in every seat where the incumbent hasn't promised to/didn't vote against The Surrender Treaty.
That also chimes with both of Farage's narrative framing interventions in the last 48 hours.
Other's will take a different view but I would encourage everyone to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjrzu37-ljI
Labour whilst screaming that the evil tories are starving and / or killing people are content to leave those evil people in power .... go figure.
Time to start appointing the Supreme Court by the PM.
They've just ran a piece of reactions to impeachment from "swing" voters where they fail to disclose things lile the swing voter has been to 23 Trump rallies, or the swing voter has voted straight Republican all their life etc.
They have just now all but outed the whistle-blower.
They would only become political if appointed by PM.
The current Supremes are appointed on the recommendation of the PM.
Then we could talk endlessly about Fudge Supreme.
An election hands more power to the PM during the election campaign, because there no MPs any more.
Given the PM can't be trusted to uphold the law -- as the courts have found -- it would be irresponsible of them call an election until The Letter has been sent.
That said, a legitimate way out would be to find a compromise candidate -- Ken Clarke would do -- to be interim PM. So that's VONC, advise HM that Clarke can win a confidence vote, Clarke sends the letter, amend FTPA to schedule a November election, Clarke retires to the Lords when a new government forms.
In any case, political appointments would be the absolute worst.
Time for a fatherly dictatorship. And Boris and his Johnson have already fathered a lot. So he knows what he's doing when it comes down to "technology lessons"
Sure, he's trashing democracy, but all the NYT gives a fuck about is banner ad views.
Which was enough to give the Tories a majority.
And that was before the Lib Dems started cannibalising the Labour vote.
Speaking of which, judging from your avatar do I take it you have accepted Jo Swinson into your heart as your lord and saviour? I'm surprised as I thought you were a democrat and revoke is decidedly un-democratic.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1177300434228326400?s=21
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1177300436417744898?s=21
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1177300440742014982?s=21
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1177300442965061632?s=21
Another fool with no idea how our democratic system works
A couple of times I've said he's bad but not as bad as May. I now have to admit I was wrong. He's worse. Much, much worse.
Mea culpa.
But that doesn't necessarily mean MPs are judging the mood correctly either.
All your side want is to sell our country and our values off to the likes of them. If we have a no deal, I hope this country turns into a heap of shit. I am sick of hearing about the 17.4million. There are 68 million people living here...millions of whom pay tax but got no vote. Nobody born in this millenium had a vote. I really could not care less about the referendum result. Leaving the EU is a stupid idea, believed in by stupid people, led by tossers who could not give a fig for the welfare of the less well off. You think Jacob and Nigel give a flying fuck about ordinary families and their problems. You think Boris does?
He's officiallly more deluded than the Emperor Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus Germanicus.
Hmm. Do they possibly have a cunning plan, after all? What could it possibly be??!!
I hope they surprise us on the upside; I doubt they will.
Has he declared war on clouds for getting in the way of the sunlit uplands yet?
Meanwhile the rumour is that Trump thinks he now has the religious nuts sewn up and is looking for a female running mate to replace Pence
The largest part of future EU-UK relations is yet to be negotiated.
Where we are now is just the first step of many more to come, and even the WA, if and when ratified, could just be reneged on by a Tory/BXP government.
No.
Honestly nostalgic for May. She was inept, but at least she wasn't using the Bannon playbook.
- Confused of Scotland
My avatar might need some explanation. Firstly, it's gone midnight and the Vote Leave bus has turned back into a pumpkin.
Secondly, it stemmed from a conversation about some Leavers not even having a single candle burning in the empty vegetable hollow that is their head.
If you thought I was a Leaver, you thought wrong.
Unfortunately, Corbyn doesn't even have half a brain.
Oh well.
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1177178027723231232
Will we ever see a conservative party again?
Mind, I felt like that about thirty seconds after he'd kissed hands.
It's just not possible to leave twice. If we've already left, we can't leave again. Unless Farage wants to rejoin just so that we can leave with No Deal. Who knows?
But MPs have surgeries, receive correspondence from their voters, are out and about in their constituencies and have been elected.
Cummings has been elected by no-one. Who does he talk to? Whom does he represent? How dare an unelected administrator lecture people who have actually bothered to go to the effort to get themselves elected. He has no more right to be heard or to think himself important than any one of us here or a random person in the street. He has one vote just like the rest of us.
He is displaying the same sort of arrogance that Brexiteers usually accuse Eurocrats of displaying.
I am far from Corbyn's biggest fan but I think he has been acting sensibly and responsibly on this issue, at least recently.
The opposition parties could bring down the government tomorrow and install Corbyn as PM to deliver the extension request followed by an immediate GE.
If the country is in such grave danger why are they not taking this action?
It is not an integer or counting number.
Because of the wonderful things Corbyn does
One of those graphs that suddenly switches all of a sudden at some point?
Parliament was elected by us. It reflects our divisions. I'd rather have a Parliament - however foolish - that I elect governing me than some elected nobody, no matter how clever he thinks he is, who thinks he can ignore the law.
I want to live "constrained by law but not constrained by tyranny". Such straws in the wind are there are suggest we may well end up subject to tyranny but have no law to protect us.
Glad I'm on at 18.
2 I would trust corbyn as much as I trust Johnson to do the right thing
The way out is for Johnson who wants an election to seek an extension to morrow which when granted will allow him to seek a GE which could take place in October, what is wrong with that? Problem solved everybody gets what the want after all a 10% in time extension of article 50 is neither here or there to ant body without paranoid fears.
You surely know all this. That you disagree with it - and think that somehow overrides the reality - is the foolish bit. You and all the other people spouting the same nonsense.
Because most of them are aware that awful as Johnson is, Corbyn is somehow much, much worse.
On the other hand, it should ne noted that the content of the WA (citizens' rights, money, NI) is merely a side show in comparison to the real issues that come next, those are objectively more consequential by at least one order of magnitude, and if you succeed in selling the WA as BRINO to your audience, then there opens up a new opportunity for creating monumental mischief.