politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election

surbiton19 said:

Nigelb said:

surbiton19 said:

felix said:

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :!
Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too.
Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.

Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...

Lucy Powell last night:

"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our
democracy. "

The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.

And the precedent is now set for future years - Parliament can sit through all party conferences except the Tory one. It'll look really clever if that was to happen.

Actually, Parliament was open during both the Lib Dem and Labour conferences. Did you not hear Lady Hale say, "Parliament is not prorogued".

And it is undeniable that Johnson deprived Parliament of a vote on a conference recess prior to today...

And quite possible that the opposition would have voted it down, even at the expense of their own conferences.

(Mind you, I still think today's vote, while understandable, slightly petty.)

Today's vote was unnecessarily petty. I am surprised all opposition parties agreed to it.
Why did the 21 expelled Tories sat on their hands ? This would have been a good gesture to their party membership.

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

NickPalmer said:

Odd Opinium poll asks inter alia about Labour Brexit policy without giving the actual policy as an option to support - it gives the options to back the government, to revoke, or to negotiate a new deal but commit to supporting or opposing it before negotiating. The real policy (negotiate and then decide) isn't listed. I'd be wary of interpreting the answers to that one.

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

Party conferences should all be moved to the already ridiculously long holiday periods.

MPs should work for their constituents when they are paid to do so and their parties in their free time.

It would still have been wiser and more magnanimous to have allowed a recess for the tory conference this time around.

They should embrace the new technology - and have Boris's speech given to conference by a (now surprisingly life-like) hologram.

Even a robot could do better than this

dyedwoolie said:

Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play

British sense of fair play?

I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.

rural_voter said:

Tabman said:

Pulpstar said:

It's one of my sincerest hopes that the Lib Dems replace the Labour party as the main left of centre party.

@RochdalePioneers Good job

Not mine. We want to be right cross the centre. Seems to be happening ...

They're not centre-left except by warped post-Thatcher standards. They're centre or centre-right.

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :!
Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too.
Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.

Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...

Lucy Powell last night:

"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "

The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

It's one of my sincerest hopes that the Lib Dems replace the Labour party as the main left of centre party.

@RochdalePioneers Good job

Why ?

There is absolutely no evidence that the LibDems are at all interested in diminishing poverty, for example.

felix said:

Oh. @Valerie_VazMP challanges @Geoffrey_Cox to resign and fight a by-election. Why not a General Election? Val's seat of Walsall South voted Leave 65.4%. Also she could say why she paid £20,835-a-year for her daughter to go to @LatymerUpper but backs a ban on independent schools. https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1177239975366184961

dyedwoolie said:

Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South

Yorkcity said:

isam said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

Thanks for the many mentions. I used the word “Bollocks” deliberately and sarcastically because it is Jo Swinson’s party’s catchphrase in the Brexit debate. I think having dipped their toe into the use of provocative language, it is a bit rich to behave like maiden aunts and talk of decency etc etc

So you found it crass, my point has been made

It has.
He talks of decency , then posts people he dislikes , are pond life.

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

Party conferences should all be moved to the already ridiculously long holiday periods.

MPs should work for their constituents when they are paid to do so and their parties in their free time.

It would still have been wiser and more magnanimous to have allowed a recess for the tory conference this time around.

They should embrace the new technology - and have Boris's speech given to conference by a (now surprisingly life-like) hologram.

Even a robot could do better than this

dyedwoolie said:

Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play

British sense of fair play?

I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.

I dont agree. In parliament, yes, in the country I think it will be seem as yet more buggering about and obstructing the referendum, and in a sneaky way. Prorogation has already happened and annoyance about it priced in

The electorate obstructed the referendum when they chose to remove TMay's majority. No mandate 😂😂😂

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party

Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example

I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?

AlastairMeeks said:

ozymandias said:

AlastairMeeks said:

felix said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CaptainBuzzkill said:

Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.

We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.

Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.

It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.

As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.

But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.

How very petty.

Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?

Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.

Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.

And so the spiral spins ever downwards.

The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.

rpjs said:

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

OllyT said:

Pulpstar said:

Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :!
Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too.
Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.

Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...

Lucy Powell last night:

"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "

The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.

Didn't someone post recently that most MPs don't attend their party confs any more except for the leader's keynote?

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party

Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example

I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South

I predict jaws will hit the floor when the exit poll drops. Whose jaws ? No idea.

The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.

The best jaw dropping moments would be if the members for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Islington North both lost their seats. That would be fantastic.

Scott_P said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1177254147156037632

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party

Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example

I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?

Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......

YBarddCwsc said:

dyedwoolie said:

YBarddCwsc said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.

The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.

That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.

The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition

Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.

There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.

I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.

Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.

My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.

Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.

Keith Best held it for the Tories in the 80s iirc?

Before his prison sentence, yes.

Andy_JS said:

The YouGov sub-sample for London has Lab 29%, Con 28%, LD 28%, BRX 9%, Grn 7%. That would be a 22.4% swing from Lab to LD. On a uniform swing that would reduce Corbyn's majority in Islington North to 19.2% over the LDs.

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=20

Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.

This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.

So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.

Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally

I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party

Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example

I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?

Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......

Hmm, interesting, thank you. I haven't been to Wales for years. I still find it hard to see a Labour meltdown there. Elsewhere yes, but not Wales

Gabs2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ozymandias said:

AlastairMeeks said:

felix said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CaptainBuzzkill said:

Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.

We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.

Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.

It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.

As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.

But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.

How very petty.

Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?

Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.

Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.

And so the spiral spins ever downwards.

The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.

The precedent for parliamentary majorities to stymy conference season for political minorities is. Just like the prorogation, it is another childish and destructive step that one side has taken, justified by blaming the other side as being worse. Nobody takes any responsibility.

Drutt said:

Huh. Just checking in. Your regular reminder, everyone, to take a soothing medicament and settle down.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Catman, if only we had a leading politician with the competence and strategic thinking of the Emperor.

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don't think emeritus Supreme Court judges are allowed to say "don't take the piss". But I feel that we are concurring.

Sadly, the Einsteins in Number 10 don't seem to have absorbed that lesson, given the noises coming out of it.

Do you think that the case might have gone the other way (or at least not been decided unanimously) if the government had bothered to provide some justification for the long period of prorogation?

Yes I do. I found that an extraordinary display of arrogance.

It reminded me of a pensions case, actually, called Imperial Tobacco. That was the first case which introduced the implied duty of trust and confidence into pensions law. The employer was asked to give a reason for its actions and it refused point blank. Off the back of that, the judge held that its actions were improper. If they had given any view, they would probably have won the case.

rottenborough said:

Have we heard from Mr Jessop? Seems a shame to lose a regular poster now the offender has been banned.

CaptainBuzzkill said:

I would expect parliament to come off the boil now that the opportunity for faux-outrage and grandstanding for the cameras has passed.

Would the next meaningful event be Boris bring a deal before the house?

And assuming remainer MPs reject the final opportunity the next big event would be Corbyn submitting the extension request prior the GE?

kinabalu said:

CaptainBuzzkill said:

The political class need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy.

No problem with this sentence - it does the job - but I do recommend that you consider an alternative to the term "the political class" because, through no fault of its own, it has an aura of excitable demagoguery about it. Perhaps because there are so many reprehensible types who struggle to get through a sentence without it.

My suggestion is that you replace it with something simpler and more relevant to the point you are making.

MPs.

And look at the transformation -

"MPs need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy."

See?

We now have a comment that speaking for myself (and I would wager for others too) would have generated a cascade of 'likes' and '+1s'.

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.

Few matters are. However the opposition should have taken the high ground and allowed for a three day recess. By denying the recess they look petty and vindictive and in the mould of the man-child presently holding the position of Prime Minister.</blockquote

I agree.
The opposition should have allowed a three day recess.

It is petty , and will stoke up further resentment.

dyedwoolie said:

Saw an interesting proposal the other day for a space elevator to the moon for a few billion quid and a massive moon mining operation for helium 3 running up and down it. The daft thing is we are only a decade away from it being a serious consideration probably!

Scott_P said:

not_on_fire said:

Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.

Are his hands clean?

not_on_fire said:

Scott_P said:

not_on_fire said:

Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.

Are his hands clean?

If both Trump and Pence resign then Nancy Pelosi becomes president!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

Benpointer said:

not_on_fire said:

Scott_P said:

not_on_fire said:

Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.

Are his hands clean?

If both Trump and Pence resign then Nancy Pelosi becomes president!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

What odds can you get on Pelosi as next POTUS?

Gallowgate said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don't think emeritus Supreme Court judges are allowed to say "don't take the piss". But I feel that we are concurring.

Sadly, the Einsteins in Number 10 don't seem to have absorbed that lesson, given the noises coming out of it.

Do you think that the case might have gone the other way (or at least not been decided unanimously) if the government had bothered to provide some justification for the long period of prorogation?

Yes I do. I found that an extraordinary display of arrogance.

It reminded me of a pensions case, actually, called Imperial Tobacco. That was the first case which introduced the implied duty of trust and confidence into pensions law. The employer was asked to give a reason for its actions and it refused point blank. Off the back of that, the judge held that its actions were improper. If they had given any view, they would probably have won the case.

I’ll add that one to my Westlaw reading list!