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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign
The above detailed data from today’s YouGov/Times poll should be of concern to the PM’s advisors as they wrench up the election rhetoric.
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I was going to mock this post. Then I remembered I spent a hour online upset yesterday that Waterstones sell three of Gibson's Sprawl novels in editions with the same cover design, height and width, but the fourth has the same cover design, height BUT A DIFFERENT WIDTH, and so will not line up on the shelves...
Bastards.
Could you not trim it if too wide or add a false panel if narrower. Bit of crafting to go with your reading.
Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live
Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.
They badly need some time out to talk to themselves and take stock.
And if it's as successful as the Labour conference, another 4 points on the Lib Dem polling total would be very welcome.
I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.
Con
Lib-Dem
Lab
Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
I would suggest this would make it much more likely that the Lib Dems will finish first in vote share, rather than second.
Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.
Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?
Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"
Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.
David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.
I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.
The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
Nah......
https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20190812_-_whistleblower_complaint_unclass.pdf
He is my favourite Tory politician bar none.
http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/190926-Brexit-and-the-Belfast-Good-Friday-Agreement-Final-report.pdf
The current impasse over Brexit stems from divergent views in the UK and the EU about the role and purpose of the backstop, and the meaning of the commitment to prevent a return to a hard border in Ireland after the UK leaves the EU. At the root of this dispute is a disagreement over the obligations imposed on the UK (and Ireland) under the terms of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement of 1998.
....the Tories will go into the next election committed to uniting the country....
‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’
Traditionally in times of crisis the way we have tended to let off steam has been through general elections and resolution but that route is also being denied to voters also.
I don't think there will be violence (at least not widespread violence) much less war but we are clearly a very unhappy country and until there is resolution to Brexit, which can only happen with a new Commons after a general election, nothing will improve.
This is why talk of armistice is not the answer. It might stop the shelling, but will fuel resentment for the next round.
Only total victory will suffice.
As noted upthread, the nuclear option of No Deal might persuade both sides that the damage of total war exceeds the gains, but it will mean destruction and death.
We can rebuild, but only if all of the ivory towers are flattened.
The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
The conference will go on though
His business statement consists of reading out every statutory order title in full, in a monotone voice which says "you f*ckers dragged us all back here.. now you're gonna suffer for it"
Honouring someone doesn’t meaning doing what they wanted.
In this case it means creating a unified country and working towards a more level-set political environment
That means either Brexit or Revoke. Either will be cathartic and then the healing can begin
It’s the “extend and pretend” folks who are dishonouring Jo Cox’s memory
It is my conclusion, based on the evidence of this governments planning documents and the discussions on these issues by specialists (including my housemate who works at a medical site using radioactive material for cancer treatment) that in the case of No Deal, we are fucked.
Also opens the door for revenge next year.
Poor fare again from MPs.
The "men" suppoting a similar "man" threatening the life of a 5 year old child because him Mum said that she didn't want them to eat grass or die because of the lack of insulin, saying that its the fault of the 5 year old's mum. That the best way to honour a woman murdered by a Brexit chanting "man" is to deliver Brexit.
So no, the way to deal with this issue is not to pander to these "men". We don't negotiate with terrorists. Or despots. Or dictators. We don't let off those threatening murder of children because if we don't they might do something serious.
This is not politics any more. Its basic human decency and the rule of law. That Johnson is so desperate to trash the concept of rule of law is specifically so that he can portray "the law" as against the people. Are Brexiteers really not alarmed where this one leads to? If the rule of law is no longer absolute and can be broken because you dislike it, then you are fine being burgled and assaulted and defrauded by others who dislike other aspects of law. At which point it truly is anarchy.
won't backfire.
Dream on.
Yes very petty especially considering the conference will still go ahead anyway.
It's just denying hotels and bars in Manchester extra revenue from reduced hospitality...
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1177210799770820609?s=20
I don't consider myself an elitist in that I don't trust the elite class. I don't trust the system we live under, nor those who built it to their benefit. But I can accept when evidence is presented to me that their is a shared reality that exists and we can discern. It is hared to do with philosophy, or ideology, or politics, but with material things we can do it really well. When I am ill I go to a doctor. If the doctor says something I don't like I don't turn to a witch doctor who tells me all is dandy.
It tickles the ivories of millions who are only too prepared to have their ivories tickled. We even see it on here and this is a relatively enlightened and thoughtful place. Well it is. Relatively.
If Johnson gets his election soon after 31 Oct under an extension agreed either by him but clearly under duress, or by someone else, and if the anti-Tory and anti-Leave vote remains so badly split, I find it hard to envisage anything but a Conservative working majority, possibly quite a large one.
The tactical LAB/LD voting would need to be on a massive scale, and would need to operate seat by seat incredibly effectively, in order to prevent this. It's a big ask.