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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign

The above detailed data from today’s YouGov/Times poll should be of concern to the PM’s advisors as they wrench up the election rhetoric.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771
    First.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771
    The BXP figures look encouraging for BoJo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019
    Boris seen as decisive and strong will be good news for No 10, especially in comparison to his predecessor
  • With another week or two of Parliamentary shambles the positive rating for decisiveness might trump every other measure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,450
    FPT
    viewcode said:

    » show previous quotes
    I was going to mock this post. Then I remembered I spent a hour online upset yesterday that Waterstones sell three of Gibson's Sprawl novels in editions with the same cover design, height and width, but the fourth has the same cover design, height BUT A DIFFERENT WIDTH, and so will not line up on the shelves... :(

    Bastards.

    :(

    Could you not trim it if too wide or add a false panel if narrower. Bit of crafting to go with your reading.
  • FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,450
    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris seen as decisive and strong will be good news for No 10, especially in comparison to his predecessor

    A pity, then, that his ratings on both of those seem to be falling rapidly...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019
    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and Wales and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too with the LDs up to 14% north of the border as well ahead of Scottish Labour on just 13%
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,527
    I hope the Tories get their conference recess.

    They badly need some time out to talk to themselves and take stock.

    And if it's as successful as the Labour conference, another 4 points on the Lib Dem polling total would be very welcome.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
  • FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    Very different MPs with very different policies but either would get my vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019
    Overall the new Yougov has the Tories on 33%, the LDs and Labour tied on 22% each and the Brexit Party on 14%
  • Watch the glissando in the "competence" and "strong" ratings as it dawns on the public that Brexit isn't going to happen on 31 October.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,450
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
    Will really be a pin the donkey election for sure
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826
    HYUFD said:

    Overall the new Yougov has the Tories on 33%, LDs and Labour tied on 22% each and Brexit Party on 14%

    20% of female voters don't know who to vote for. Given that they also seem to be the Don't know 2017 Tory voters that doesn't look good for Boris.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    Jess' speech is good ... but on the use of inflammatory language, can you remind me who said she wanted to "knife Corbyn in the front" ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989

    Watch the glissando in the "competence" and "strong" ratings as it dawns on the public that Brexit isn't going to happen on 31 October.

    I think that depends on if he is able to make the case that it is Parliament who are blocking things.
  • GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
    If it begins to look obvious that the Lib Dems will finish above Labour in vote share, then I think that will make it easier for moderate Conservatives to also vote Lib Dem, as they will not have to fear Corbyn.

    I would suggest this would make it much more likely that the Lib Dems will finish first in vote share, rather than second.
  • The difference between the figures for Leave, and for Conservative and Brexit, are interesting. It suggests that Labour Leavers have a very poor opinion of Johnson. He won't be winning them over.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,403

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    Jess' speech is good ... but on the use of inflammatory language, can you remind me who said she wanted to "knife Corbyn in the front" ?
    Virtually everyone - here and especially in parliament, has taken sides. There is not a hint of compromise anywhere. That is certainly a betrayal both of the majority in the referendum but also the minority. 52/48 requires a compromise version of Brexit - nothing more and nothing less. For those of us in the middle, in my case preferring remain but accepting the result it's all rather awful.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited September 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
    If it begins to look obvious that the Lib Dems will finish above Labour in vote share, then I think that will make it easier for moderate Conservatives to also vote Lib Dem, as they will not have to fear Corbyn.

    I would suggest this would make it much more likely that the Lib Dems will finish first in vote share, rather than second.
    I think that's optimistic for the Lib-Dems especially as Con will squeeze BXP down to single digits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
    If it begins to look obvious that the Lib Dems will finish above Labour in vote share, then I think that will make it easier for moderate Conservatives to also vote Lib Dem, as they will not have to fear Corbyn.

    I would suggest this would make it much more likely that the Lib Dems will finish first in vote share, rather than second.
    Wishful thinking. Don't underestimate the attraction of Johnson in the privacy of the polling booth to those who fear Corbyn by the back door.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    felix said:

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    Jess' speech is good ... but on the use of inflammatory language, can you remind me who said she wanted to "knife Corbyn in the front" ?
    Virtually everyone - here and especially in parliament, has taken sides. There is not a hint of compromise anywhere. That is certainly a betrayal both of the majority in the referendum but also the minority. 52/48 requires a compromise version of Brexit - nothing more and nothing less. For those of us in the middle, in my case preferring remain but accepting the result it's all rather awful.
    Sorry, but you can't use the "betrayal" word.....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Lib-Dems at the general election. Possibly.

    GIN, you are off your rocker, bottom of the pile for those roasters
    I'm not sure Malc.

    I think Labour is in big, big trouble and they know it which explains for example Sheermans extraordinary outburst yesterday and why Jezza is so desperate not to have an election.

    Con
    Lib-Dem
    Lab

    Could be the finishing order in terms of vote shares though, probably not seats...
    If it begins to look obvious that the Lib Dems will finish above Labour in vote share, then I think that will make it easier for moderate Conservatives to also vote Lib Dem, as they will not have to fear Corbyn.

    I would suggest this would make it much more likely that the Lib Dems will finish first in vote share, rather than second.
    I think the fear of a Corbyn led Lib Dem Labour coalition led by Corbyn will be enough to ensure most remain Tories back Boris.
  • RobD said:

    Watch the glissando in the "competence" and "strong" ratings as it dawns on the public that Brexit isn't going to happen on 31 October.

    I think that depends on if he is able to make the case that it is Parliament who are blocking things.
    "A big boy made me do it then he ran away"

    Nah......
  • glwglw Posts: 8,790
    edited September 2019
    Trump has some explaining to do.

    "In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election."

    https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20190812_-_whistleblower_complaint_unclass.pdf
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,295

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    I don't like Phillips as much as many seem to do, I find her a bit of a narcissist, but Gauke IMO is an egg of the very highest grade of goodness.

    He is my favourite Tory politician bar none.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    RobD said:

    Watch the glissando in the "competence" and "strong" ratings as it dawns on the public that Brexit isn't going to happen on 31 October.

    I think that depends on if he is able to make the case that it is Parliament who are blocking things.
    Yesterday will help him make that case.....
  • Good summary of how we've got to where we are on the Backstop/Belfast agreement, and what needs to change (among all parties) for progress:

    http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/190926-Brexit-and-the-Belfast-Good-Friday-Agreement-Final-report.pdf

    The current impasse over Brexit stems from divergent views in the UK and the EU about the role and purpose of the backstop, and the meaning of the commitment to prevent a return to a hard border in Ireland after the UK leaves the EU. At the root of this dispute is a disagreement over the obligations imposed on the UK (and Ireland) under the terms of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement of 1998.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    The government reply to Gauke was... strange ? humbug ? an acknowledgment that by then they’ll be generally despised ? ... or just taking the piss ?

    ....the Tories will go into the next election committed to uniting the country....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

    Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    I have added a 'like' to your excellent post. I would prefer it if I could add multiple 'likes' for your post!
  • The basic problem is that however bad Johnson's ratings are, Corbyn's are worse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited September 2019

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

    Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    I do agree that the UK is like a pressure cooker at the moment and it's been building since 2016.

    Traditionally in times of crisis the way we have tended to let off steam has been through general elections and resolution but that route is also being denied to voters also.

    I don't think there will be violence (at least not widespread violence) much less war but we are clearly a very unhappy country and until there is resolution to Brexit, which can only happen with a new Commons after a general election, nothing will improve.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

    Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497
    Nigelb said:

    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’

    Christmas lunch conversation is going to be interesting in the Johnson household!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    We are at war (culture right now, but violence is probably not far behind)

    This is why talk of armistice is not the answer. It might stop the shelling, but will fuel resentment for the next round.

    Only total victory will suffice.

    As noted upthread, the nuclear option of No Deal might persuade both sides that the damage of total war exceeds the gains, but it will mean destruction and death.

    We can rebuild, but only if all of the ivory towers are flattened.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309

    FPT, but actually more relevant to this thread:

    Jess Phillips is really rather impressive. See the quote at 13:34:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/26/boris-johnsons-brexit-rhetoric-condemned-as-mps-tell-of-death-threats-politics-live

    Also David Gauke is proving to be a star. I met him briefly in 2010 when he was a junior in the Treasury, and I thought then he might go far. What a tragedy that the modern Conservative Party is no longer interested in sensible people like him.

    I have never met Jess, but I have met Gauke, and seen him in action at at Q&A of experts during his time at HM Treasury. He remains the most impressive minister I have seen with an industry audience – completely on top of his brief, warm and willing. He is a seriously able man.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Parliament just voted against recess for Tory conference
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771
    Nigelb said:

    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’

    Why do I get the sense that all of that is followed by the word "but"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BoZo maintains his 100 losing record.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462
    edited September 2019

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

    Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Yes, there is now a bigger swing from Labour to the Tories in London than the North if Yougov is correct since 2017 suggesting Kensington, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham and Rainham, Eltham, even Ilford North and Brentford and Isleworth etc could all go blue
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Scott_P said:

    Parliament just voted against recess for Tory conference

    What was the tally ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,487

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?

    Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"

    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
    This is the new normal. No matter what happens everything changes from now on.
  • Blundini is now 0 for 7.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,403

    The basic problem is that however bad Johnson's ratings are, Corbyn's are worse.

    Yup and no matter how appalling Boris is it is difficult to see that changing. Not indeed should it quite frankly. Even from Spain - where things are far from rosy right now des[ite what the self-obsessed British think - I am horrified at the idea of the UK being led by him and his ilk. Fortunately in my Lewisham East constituency a LD vote makes a lot of sense this time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019
    148grss said:

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?


    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.
    Will it be a disaster? Is that a fact, or your opinion? The latter. And the argument starts again.

    The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989

    Blundini is now 0 for 7.

    With all these defeats, it’s almost as if there should be another election.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Some people are determined to analyse meaningless polling subsamples to an inch of their lives when they say things they like, then ignore entire polls like ComRes when they say things they don't like.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    Scott_P said:
    Tim Loughton on Daily Politics said Tory MPs would just go up day by day rather than stay overnight in Manchester ready to go back and vote if required.

    The conference will go on though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Some people are determined to analyse meaningless polling subsamples to an inch of their lives when they say things they like, then ignore entire polls like ComRes when they say things they don't like.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    There are PB Tories not on PB?
  • JRM throwing intense shade in the Commons right now..

    His business statement consists of reading out every statutory order title in full, in a monotone voice which says "you f*ckers dragged us all back here.. now you're gonna suffer for it" :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’

    I disagree

    Honouring someone doesn’t meaning doing what they wanted.

    In this case it means creating a unified country and working towards a more level-set political environment

    That means either Brexit or Revoke. Either will be cathartic and then the healing can begin

    It’s the “extend and pretend” folks who are dishonouring Jo Cox’s memory
  • 148grss said:

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?


    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.
    Will it be a disaster? Is that a fact, or your opinion? The latter. And the argument starts again.

    The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
    It's the majority opinion of business and 'experts' (so I guess you'd disregard them).
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462

    148grss said:



    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.

    Will it be a disaster? Is that a fact, or your opinion? The latter. And the argument starts again.

    The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
    I mean, it is a fact we will need some deal with the EU. It is a fact, stated by the EU, that to get such a deal we would need to discuss Ireland, EU citizens rights and money to be paid into EU budget for prior commitments. It is a fact that leaving will change the nature of how goods, including food, come in and out of this country.

    It is my conclusion, based on the evidence of this governments planning documents and the discussions on these issues by specialists (including my housemate who works at a medical site using radioactive material for cancer treatment) that in the case of No Deal, we are fucked.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    148grss said:

    Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.

    Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.

    Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?


    Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.

    David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.

    I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.

    If we'd Hard Brexited on 29th March, would this country be in a worse state now that it is? Not, at least, in a political sense. Lance the boil, Brexit, get on with getting back to normal. But this parliament seems set on stringing it out stringing it out stringing out all the while the tension is rising.
    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.
    Will it be a disaster? Is that a fact, or your opinion? The latter. And the argument starts again.

    The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
    It's the majority opinion of business and 'experts' (so I guess you'd disregard them).
    Here we go again.
  • RobD said:

    Blundini is now 0 for 7.

    With all these defeats, it’s almost as if there should be another election.
    A new government will suffice in due course.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Yes, there is now a bigger swing from Labour to the Tories in London than the North if Yougov is correct since 2017 suggesting Kensington, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham and Rainham, Eltham, even Ilford North and Brentford and Isleworth etc could all go blue
    You are the only person I have come across who can type as he dreams. When you wake up you will realise it was all a wonderful fantasy, then it's back to reality!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Parliament just voted against recess for Tory conference

    To scrutinise Brexit, of course, not for partisan advantage
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Some people are determined to analyse meaningless polling subsamples to an inch of their lives when they say things they like, then ignore entire polls like ComRes when they say things they don't like.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Some Labour supporters are determined to ignore the polling of doom held up in front of their faces.



  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462
    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    It's almost as if in politics you need political capital to get things done, and if you squander than on being generally awful you get punished. Who knew?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Yes, there is now a bigger swing from Labour to the Tories in London than the North if Yougov is correct since 2017 suggesting Kensington, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham and Rainham, Eltham, even Ilford North and Brentford and Isleworth etc could all go blue
    You are the only person I have come across who can type as he dreams. When you wake up you will realise it was all a wonderful fantasy, then it's back to reality!
    Again, ignore the polling if you wish. But the evidence suggests it is you who is asleep.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    Which way did Lucy Powell, Chris Bryant & Harriet Harman vote ?
  • TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    There is no reason the conference cannot go ahead. It is not as if the entire parliamentary party would ever have been there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,258
    edited September 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Some people are determined to analyse meaningless polling subsamples to an inch of their lives when they say things they like, then ignore entire polls like ComRes when they say things they don't like.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Even Comres has a big swing from Labour to LD so does not really contradict Yougov, just the Yougov swing from Labour to the LDs is bigger and Yougov has the Brexit Party a bit lower than Comres and the Tories higher
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462

    148grss said:



    But why is it to "lance the boil" we capitulate to the Hard Brexit side? Hard Brexit / No Deal Brexit will be it's own disaster AND it won't be "the end" of Brexit. Indeed, No Deal Brexit is just a continuation of these talks, just from a position already outside the EU but considerably more fucked. The status quo is Remain. We could do that and leavers could try to craft a leave that is actually possible, and then we have a referendum on that.

    Will it be a disaster? Is that a fact, or your opinion? The latter. And the argument starts again.

    The status quo has gone. It went on the 23rd June 2016.
    It's the majority opinion of business and 'experts' (so I guess you'd disregard them).
    Here we go again.
    I mean, if we live in a world where we have to debate the nature of reality everytime we discuss something, we're already fucked, No Deal or Remain.
  • Scott_P said:

    We can rebuild, but only if all of the ivory towers are flattened.

    Its the Vox Pops from angry "men" insisting they aren't bothered if they run out of the insulin they need to live providing that we have Brexit. Monty Python used to satirise Vox Pops. This isn't satire - they are serious. The man who said "I'm happy to eat grass". Serious.

    The "men" suppoting a similar "man" threatening the life of a 5 year old child because him Mum said that she didn't want them to eat grass or die because of the lack of insulin, saying that its the fault of the 5 year old's mum. That the best way to honour a woman murdered by a Brexit chanting "man" is to deliver Brexit.

    So no, the way to deal with this issue is not to pander to these "men". We don't negotiate with terrorists. Or despots. Or dictators. We don't let off those threatening murder of children because if we don't they might do something serious.

    This is not politics any more. Its basic human decency and the rule of law. That Johnson is so desperate to trash the concept of rule of law is specifically so that he can portray "the law" as against the people. Are Brexiteers really not alarmed where this one leads to? If the rule of law is no longer absolute and can be broken because you dislike it, then you are fine being burgled and assaulted and defrauded by others who dislike other aspects of law. At which point it truly is anarchy.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    Perhaps the Tories should have considered this before closing down Parliament unilaterally for their own ends.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    the absolute state of this.

    won't backfire.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories have a 10% lead in the Midlands and a 14% lead in the South and are just 1% behind Labour in London and the North on this poll too and it also has the SNP on 35% and the Tories on 22% in Scotland too

    What was the finishing Con/Lab margin in the Midlands in the 2017 GE?

    EDIT and that Labour number suggests they are shedding votes in London to the LibDems.
    Yougov today has the Labour vote collapsing in London from 54% in 2017 to just 29% now with the LD vote surging from just 8% in 2017 to 28% now.

    The Tory vote is down but only fractionally from 33% to 28%
    The Tories within 1% of Labour in London? That's surprising.
    Some people are determined to analyse meaningless polling subsamples to an inch of their lives when they say things they like, then ignore entire polls like ComRes when they say things they don't like.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Some Tory supporters are determined to ignore the polling of doom held up in front of their faces.



    Fixed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989
    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    A Bonfire Night election would be cathartic for the nation I think! :D
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497

    RobD said:

    Blundini is now 0 for 7.

    With all these defeats, it’s almost as if there should be another election.
    A new government will suffice in due course.
    ...but not until Johnson has extended, or no dealt (?) illegally.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    5 weeks is the minimum campaign now. It used to be 3 and a half weeks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
    Which ain't gonna happen.

    Dream on.
  • RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
    No. The 25 working day minimal timetable for a campaign is not set out in the FTPA.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.


    Yes very petty especially considering the conference will still go ahead anyway.

    It's just denying hotels and bars in Manchester extra revenue from reduced hospitality...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
    The Gov't can't possibly pass anything now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989

    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    There is no reason the conference cannot go ahead. It is not as if the entire parliamentary party would ever have been there.
    The risk is unexpected votes.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    Johnson losing it? (OK, I know some people think he never had it)
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1177210799770820609?s=20
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,713
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’

    I disagree

    Honouring someone doesn’t meaning doing what they wanted.

    In this case it means creating a unified country and working towards a more level-set political environment

    That means either Brexit or Revoke. Either will be cathartic and then the healing can begin

    It’s the “extend and pretend” folks who are dishonouring Jo Cox’s memory
    You don't get to say what does or does not honour or dishonour Jo Cox's memory.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    RobD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Seems a petty decision which will deprive the Manchester hospitality industry of a few quid.

    Also opens the door for revenge next year.

    Poor fare again from MPs.

    There is no reason the conference cannot go ahead. It is not as if the entire parliamentary party would ever have been there.
    The risk is unexpected votes.
    The Gov't is going to lose any 'unexpected votes' anyway. They might as well all head off to the conference & keep a few "talkers" in place to string things out where neccesary.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
    Which ain't gonna happen.

    Dream on.
    Just stating the facts.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462

    Scott_P said:

    We can rebuild, but only if all of the ivory towers are flattened.

    Its the Vox Pops from angry "men" insisting they aren't bothered if they run out of the insulin they need to live providing that we have Brexit. Monty Python used to satirise Vox Pops. This isn't satire - they are serious. The man who said "I'm happy to eat grass". Serious.

    The "men" suppoting a similar "man" threatening the life of a 5 year old child because him Mum said that she didn't want them to eat grass or die because of the lack of insulin, saying that its the fault of the 5 year old's mum. That the best way to honour a woman murdered by a Brexit chanting "man" is to deliver Brexit.

    So no, the way to deal with this issue is not to pander to these "men". We don't negotiate with terrorists. Or despots. Or dictators. We don't let off those threatening murder of children because if we don't they might do something serious.

    This is not politics any more. Its basic human decency and the rule of law. That Johnson is so desperate to trash the concept of rule of law is specifically so that he can portray "the law" as against the people. Are Brexiteers really not alarmed where this one leads to? If the rule of law is no longer absolute and can be broken because you dislike it, then you are fine being burgled and assaulted and defrauded by others who dislike other aspects of law. At which point it truly is anarchy.

    Good thing those ivory towers never gave us anything useful like vaccines, food security, clean water and the internet.

    I don't consider myself an elitist in that I don't trust the elite class. I don't trust the system we live under, nor those who built it to their benefit. But I can accept when evidence is presented to me that their is a shared reality that exists and we can discern. It is hared to do with philosophy, or ideology, or politics, but with material things we can do it really well. When I am ill I go to a doctor. If the doctor says something I don't like I don't turn to a witch doctor who tells me all is dandy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,989
    edited September 2019

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    Bercow confirmed a few minutes ago that the earliest an election can be held is 5th November.

    Without amending the FTPA.
    No. The 25 working day minimal timetable for a campaign is not set out in the FTPA.
    The amendment that would be required could amend that provision too. Not saying it’s likely to happen, but it is not an impossibility.
  • Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Rachel Johnson...

    ‘I do think it was particularly tasteless for those grieving a mother, MP and friend to say the best way to honour her memory is to deliver the thing she and her family campaigned against. I think it was a very tasteless way of referring to the memory of a murdered MP, murdered by someone who said “Britain first”, of the far right tendency which you could argue is being whipped up by this sort of language.’

    I disagree

    Honouring someone doesn’t meaning doing what they wanted.

    In this case it means creating a unified country and working towards a more level-set political environment

    That means either Brexit or Revoke. Either will be cathartic and then the healing can begin

    It’s the “extend and pretend” folks who are dishonouring Jo Cox’s memory
    You're some bloke on t'intentet though, not the sister of the pm who is whipping up the far right tendency, according to her.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,295
    RobD said:

    I think that depends on if he is able to make the case that it is Parliament who are blocking things.

    The populist narrative - "I want to Brexit but Remainer Quislings will not let me. Back me my People!" - might be tacky and reckless but it is powerful.

    It tickles the ivories of millions who are only too prepared to have their ivories tickled. We even see it on here and this is a relatively enlightened and thoughtful place. Well it is. Relatively.

    If Johnson gets his election soon after 31 Oct under an extension agreed either by him but clearly under duress, or by someone else, and if the anti-Tory and anti-Leave vote remains so badly split, I find it hard to envisage anything but a Conservative working majority, possibly quite a large one.

    The tactical LAB/LD voting would need to be on a massive scale, and would need to operate seat by seat incredibly effectively, in order to prevent this. It's a big ask.
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