Odd Opinium poll asks inter alia about Labour Brexit policy without giving the actual policy as an option to support - it gives the options to back the government, to revoke, or to negotiate a new deal but commit to supporting or opposing it before negotiating. The real policy (negotiate and then decide) isn't listed. I'd be wary of interpreting the answers to that one.
Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :! Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too. Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.
Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...
Lucy Powell last night:
"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "
The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.
And the precedent is now set for future years - Parliament can sit through all party conferences except the Tory one. It'll look really clever if that was to happen.
Actually, Parliament was open during both the Lib Dem and Labour conferences. Did you not hear Lady Hale say, "Parliament is not prorogued".
And it is undeniable that Johnson deprived Parliament of a vote on a conference recess prior to today...
And quite possible that the opposition would have voted it down, even at the expense of their own conferences.
(Mind you, I still think today's vote, while understandable, slightly petty.)
Today's vote was unnecessarily petty. I am surprised all opposition parties agreed to it. Why did the 21 expelled Tories sat on their hands ? This would have been a good gesture to their party membership.
Because and it's worth repeating this - they don't trust Boris so want Parliament open so they can react to anything he tries to do..
Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :! Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too. Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.
Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...
Lucy Powell last night:
"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "
The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.
And the precedent is now set for future years - Parliament can sit through all party conferences except the Tory one. It'll look really clever if that was to happen.
Actually, Parliament was open during both the Lib Dem and Labour conferences. Did you not hear Lady Hale say, "Parliament is not prorogued".
And it is undeniable that Johnson deprived Parliament of a vote on a conference recess prior to today...
And quite possible that the opposition would have voted it down, even at the expense of their own conferences.
(Mind you, I still think today's vote, while understandable, slightly petty.)
Today's vote was unnecessarily petty. I am surprised all opposition parties agreed to it. Why did the 21 expelled Tories sat on their hands ? This would have been a good gesture to their party membership.
Boris pissed them off last night with his tone. 9 voted against, the most strident of his critics incl Greening and Grieve, Gauke and Clarke
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
Odd Opinium poll asks inter alia about Labour Brexit policy without giving the actual policy as an option to support - it gives the options to back the government, to revoke, or to negotiate a new deal but commit to supporting or opposing it before negotiating. The real policy (negotiate and then decide) isn't listed. I'd be wary of interpreting the answers to that one.
How odd that they didn't correctly identify the true policy of keeping open the option of sitting on the fence.
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
Yes but apart from the illegal attempt to suspend democracy...
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
Still, with the pay-off for losing your seat you can at least afford a printer.
I don't believe that. While it was strongly LD in the past, it was also 60% leave
Jess is safe there.
My model has it as one of 5 LD gains from LAB, although it is very close and my gut says she'll hold on.
The only likely LD gain from Labour is Sheffield Hallam - given that Simon Hughes and Greg Mulholland are not standing again.
Sheffield Hallam is one of the other ones, along with Burnley, Leeds NW and Portsmouth S.
Portsmouth South is highly unlikely given Labour's shock win from third place in 2017. The new Labour MP is likely to have a significant first term incumbency bonus and will now be widely seen as the obvious anti-Tory option. Mike Hancock was dependent there on Labour tactical votes which will now swing behind the new MP. Without Mulholland , it will also be much tougher for the LDs to win back Leeds NW.
Thanks, that's useful colour. The average winning margin in the 5 seats is just 4%, none of them are a clear win. By contrast, the average winning margin in the >30 LD gains from CON is 13%.
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
Technically speaking there was never a prorogation. It never happened.
The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.
And another historic convention destroyed by remainer MPs.
Fair game in the future for a government to schedule parliament to sit whilst the opposition are having their conference.
Very sad days regardless of your political allegiance.
The petty-minded mean spirit of Remainers knows no bounds, it would seem.
I had heard that people who voted Leave had no sense of irony. Thanks for confirming.
Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.
Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.
Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?
Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"
Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.
David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.
I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.
Thanks for the many mentions. I used the word “Bollocks” deliberately and sarcastically because it is Jo Swinson’s party’s catchphrase in the Brexit debate. I think having dipped their toe into the use of provocative language, it is a bit rich to behave like maiden aunts and talk of decency etc etc
So you found it crass, my point has been made
It has. He talks of decency , then posts people he dislikes , are pond life.
Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.
We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.
Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.
It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.
As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.
But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.
How very petty.
Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?
Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.
Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.
Or maybe don't chill out and nurse your girevances like a 2 year old. Your choice.
My perception is that predictions and polls will prove very unreliable, as local factors and tactical voting will make fools of us all. I think that is perfectly possible that the Conservatives will lose Bedfordshire NE (one of their safest seats) if Alistair Burt decides to stand as an independent (and as many locally are urging him to do); he is a most exceptionally popular person locally. I also think that the Lib Dems could win in Bedford, despite doing v badly last time. They have held the mayor post and the council (the boundaries of which do not fully match the constituency) for several years and have a well organized electoral team. The prospective tory candidate doesn't seem up to much, and certainly no match for Richard Fuller who lost his seat in 2017 who was a popular and energetic local figure. Mike Smithson lives in Bedford, and might comment
Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :! Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too. Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.
Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...
Lucy Powell last night:
"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "
The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.
Didn't someone post recently that most MPs don't attend their party confs any more except for the leader's keynote?
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
I dont agree. In parliament, yes, in the country I think it will be seem as yet more buggering about and obstructing the referendum, and in a sneaky way. Prorogation has already happened and annoyance about it priced in
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
Few matters are. However the opposition should have taken the high ground and allowed for a three day recess. By denying the recess they look petty and vindictive and in the mould of the man-child presently holding the position of Prime Minister.
Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.
We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.
Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.
It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.
As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.
But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.
How very petty.
Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?
Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.
Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.
Or maybe don't chill out and nurse your girevances like a 2 year old. Your choice.
It’s a free hit at the enemies of democracy that does no one else any harm.
The political class need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy.
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
I dont agree. In parliament, yes, in the country I think it will be seem as yet more buggering about and obstructing the referendum, and in a sneaky way. Prorogation has already happened and annoyance about it priced in
The electorate obstructed the referendum when they chose to remove TMay's majority. No mandate 😂😂😂
Only skimmed the other thread as busy. But a crystal clear rubicon has been crossed IMO.
Johnson was judged to have mislead the Queen and unlawfully given advice which lead to the improper proroguing of parliament. Yes, he had legal opinion that he was ok to do so. But the superior court judged it the other way.
Jo Swinson made a short, calm and prescient point. Even her 5 year old son knows to say sorry when he's done wrong. Why doesn't the PM know to do this?
Later that afternoon she receives a DEATH THREAT against a 5 YEAR OLD CHILD. And still there are people finding a way to rationalise and argue that such behaviour is not the fault of the impotent inadequate idiotic man (because it almost certainly was) who did this. As isam said on the last thread on the subject of people objecting to this: "bollocks"
Something is very very broken in this country. The PM is openly stoking this fire so that more impotent angry cretins feel emboldened and indeed entitled to threaten a 5 year old child. That said cretins have already murdered one MP and would have murdered another had the police not stopped them doesn't seem to phase isam or Cleverly or any of these people happy to have the lives of women and children directly threatend because what they want hasn't happened.
David Starkey yesterday on LBC pointed out that in the past "People" vs "Parliament" led to war. We feel on the edge of that right now, where infants are apparently fair game. These "men" - and I rightly put it in quote marks because men do not threaten children and murder women because of politics - should be ashamed. But aren't, and won't be, because of political tactics by the Prime Minister.
I have a low opinion of Corbyn. But my resentment of Corbyn is nothing compared to my resentment of Johnson. And Cummings. And Banks. And Farage. And Dacre. How we restore basic human decency I do not know. Because isam and friends refuse to recognise that they are indecent.
Thanks for the many mentions. I used the word “Bollocks” deliberately and sarcastically because it is Jo Swinson’s party’s catchphrase in the Brexit debate. I think having dipped their toe into the use of provocative language, it is a bit rich to behave like maiden aunts and talk of decency etc etc
So you found it crass, my point has been made
It has. He talks of decency , then posts people he dislikes , are pond life.
Yes, repeatedly associating my name with death threats made to children and the murder of women was particularly high minded, I thought. 🙄
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
Changes compared to last YouGov published poll (rather than earlier poll published for the Times) Con +3, Lab -1, Lib nc, Brexit nc, Green +1, SNP -1
One small but telling point of detail. After excluding DKs, the Tories are now appealing more to the working class C2DEs than the middle class ABC1s. Labour is appealing more to the middle class than working class. i.e. Tory 32% of ABC1, 35% of C2DE Lab 22% ABC1, 21% C2DE Lib 27% ABC1, 15% C2DE Brexit 9% ABC1, 21% C2DE
Testy on here today! Reference next week, I think any attempt to seize control of the order paper whilst the Tories are in Manchester would be a politically disastrous move for the opposition parties. We might be a mardy bunch these days but that would really irk the British sense of fair play
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
I dont agree. In parliament, yes, in the country I think it will be seem as yet more buggering about and obstructing the referendum, and in a sneaky way. Prorogation has already happened and annoyance about it priced in
The electorate obstructed the referendum when they chose to remove TMay's majority. No mandate 😂😂😂
Yes yes I know but I'm talking perception , not practicalities. Practicality went out the door months ago
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Madoc? I'm gonna have a quick look at a few northern Welsh seats, hang on..........
Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South
I predict jaws will hit the floor when the exit poll drops. Whose jaws ? No idea.
The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.
The best jaw dropping moments would be if the members for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Islington North both lost their seats. That would be fantastic.
As to how this starts to de-escalate, the first essential step is for this lawless fake Prime Minister who whips up mobs against his opponents to resign. Not that he will.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.
We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.
Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.
It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.
As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.
But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.
How very petty.
Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?
Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.
Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.
And so the spiral spins ever downwards.
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
The precedent for parliamentary majorities to stymy conference season for political minorities is. Just like the prorogation, it is another childish and destructive step that one side has taken, justified by blaming the other side as being worse. Nobody takes any responsibility.
Lucy Powell votes against Tory recess :! Bryant, Hillier and Harman do too. Strange way to boost the Manc economy and get the speaker job.
Missing a few drunken Tory MPs for a couple of days is going to make sod all difference to the Manchester economy. No Deal Brexit on the other hand...
Lucy Powell last night:
"As the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, I want the Conservative conference to go ahead—not because I want to welcome the Conservatives to our city, but because livelihoods depend on it, and I think that it is an important part of our democracy. "
The Tory Conference hasn't been cancelled as far as I am aware. It will go ahead minus about 100 MPs on any particular day. Hardly the end of the world as we know it.
Didn't someone post recently that most MPs don't attend their party confs any more except for the leader's keynote?
Yes, and I'm pretty sure the poster was the PB-Ex-MP.
Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.
We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.
Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.
It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.
As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.
But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.
How very petty.
Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?
Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.
Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.
And so the spiral spins ever downwards.
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
The precedent for parliamentary majorities to stymy conference season for political minorities is. Just like the prorogation, it is another childish and destructive step that one side has taken, justified by blaming the other side as being worse. Nobody takes any responsibility.
No precedent applies here. No previous government has created the current conditions.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......
Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South
I predict jaws will hit the floor when the exit poll drops. Whose jaws ? No idea.
The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.
The best jaw dropping moments would be if the members for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Islington North both lost their seats. That would be fantastic.
And Dunbartonshire West goes back to the SNP. Leader wipeout!
Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South
I predict jaws will hit the floor when the exit poll drops. Whose jaws ? No idea.
The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.
The best jaw dropping moments would be if the members for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Islington North both lost their seats. That would be fantastic.
That would be incredibly funny. And probably good for the country as well.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Further to my below post about Wales, I should point out I expect the other way some jaw dropping Tory defeats in the South
I predict jaws will hit the floor when the exit poll drops. Whose jaws ? No idea.
The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.
The best jaw dropping moments would be if the members for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Islington North both lost their seats. That would be fantastic.
That would be incredibly funny. And probably good for the country as well.
Highly unlikely, particularly for Corbyn, but yes Richard, it would be very good for the country, though who knows what their mad bad membership would replace them with? We would probably get Rees Mogg and Chris Williamson
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......
Hmm, interesting, thank you. I haven't been to Wales for years. I still find it hard to see a Labour meltdown there. Elsewhere yes, but not Wales
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Keith Best held it for the Tories in the 80s iirc?
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......
Hmm, interesting, thank you. I haven't been to Wales for years. I still find it hard to see a Labour meltdown there. Elsewhere yes, but not Wales
In the valleys they will hold on I think and that's plenty of seats but they are vulnerable in the north of the country
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Keith Best held it for the Tories in the 80s iirc?
The YouGov sub-sample for London has Lab 29%, Con 28%, LD 28%, BRX 9%, Grn 7%. That would be a 22.4% swing from Lab to LD. On a uniform swing that would reduce Corbyn's majority in Islington North to 19.2% over the LDs.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Keith Best held it for the Tories in the 80s iirc?
The YouGov sub-sample for London has Lab 29%, Con 28%, LD 28%, BRX 9%, Grn 7%. That would be a 22.4% swing from Lab to LD. On a uniform swing that would reduce Corbyn's majority in Islington North to 19.2% over the LDs.
And Emily would be out on her rump... ooh no shed cling on like a tag nut
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......
Hmm, interesting, thank you. I haven't been to Wales for years. I still find it hard to see a Labour meltdown there. Elsewhere yes, but not Wales
On the one hand Welsh Lab are headed for a SLAB type tsunami at some point, on the other hand I don't see BoZos twatish English nationalism playing well over Offas Dyke either.
The political class need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy.
No problem with this sentence - it does the job - but I do recommend that you consider an alternative to the term "the political class" because, through no fault of its own, it has an aura of excitable demagoguery about it. Perhaps because there are so many reprehensible types who struggle to get through a sentence without it.
My suggestion is that you replace it with something simpler and more relevant to the point you are making.
MPs.
And look at the transformation -
"MPs need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy."
See?
We now have a comment that speaking for myself (and I would wager for others too) would have generated a cascade of 'likes' and '+1s'.
Perhaps the EU is their single greatest allegiance in life, who knows.
We know perfectly well - that is utter, off-the-wall, green-ink-bonkers nonsense.
Why? There was no reason for them to vote against on this occasion except utter pettiness. You sadi more or less the same thing yesterday.
It is fitting revenge for Johnson's Prorogation and making up for lost time. Hopefully the Opposition will again take control of the Order Paper so as to make it difficult for Johnson to appear in Manchester on Wednesday.
As if Parliament is going to spring into action and finally do something after three years of dithering. It's just political point scoring at this point.
But Johnson has brought it on himself and deserves no better.
How very petty.
Do you think that the Conservatives have earned any goodwill gestures from their opponents?
Spectacularly missing the point and deliberately at that. Chill out.
Play bitch games and win bitch prizes.
And so the spiral spins ever downwards.
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
The precedent for parliamentary majorities to stymy conference season for political minorities is. Just like the prorogation, it is another childish and destructive step that one side has taken, justified by blaming the other side as being worse. Nobody takes any responsibility.
After illegally suspending parliament, the Tories are going to whine that their opponents won't agree to go back into recess a couple of days after it reconvened by order of the Supreme Court? Absolutely unbelievable.
The YouGov sub-sample for London has Lab 29%, Con 28%, LD 28%, BRX 9%, Grn 7%. That would be a 22.4% swing from Lab to LD. On a uniform swing that would reduce Corbyn's majority in Islington North to 19.2% over the LDs.
And Emily would be out on her rump... ooh no shed cling on like a tag nut
Not quite. The LDs need a 25.4% swing to win Islington South & Finsbury.
Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
The valleys are still pretty rock solid Lab but outside of that the Lab vote is not as secure as it used to be.
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
Ynys Mon is likely to change as the (popular) Labour incumbent is standing down.
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Keith Best held it for the Tories in the 80s iirc?
Before his prison sentence, yes.
I was too polite to mention it but yes.,
He pulled through. You can never keep an ex-MP down for long.
He is Chief Executive of a bunch of charities. I expect he sold those BT shares that caused all the trouble when the market was high.
Because, even when an MP is hauled off to jail, they bounce back.
Anyone of our LibDem posters heard from the ex-Lag Chris Huhne.
I am sure he'll be fine too. PM Swinson will find some quango to offer him.
I don't think emeritus Supreme Court judges are allowed to say "don't take the piss". But I feel that we are concurring.
Sadly, the Einsteins in Number 10 don't seem to have absorbed that lesson, given the noises coming out of it.
Do you think that the case might have gone the other way (or at least not been decided unanimously) if the government had bothered to provide some justification for the long period of prorogation?
Yes I do. I found that an extraordinary display of arrogance.
It reminded me of a pensions case, actually, called Imperial Tobacco. That was the first case which introduced the implied duty of trust and confidence into pensions law. The employer was asked to give a reason for its actions and it refused point blank. Off the back of that, the judge held that its actions were improper. If they had given any view, they would probably have won the case.
Saw an interesting proposal the other day for a space elevator to the moon for a few billion quid and a massive moon mining operation for helium 3 running up and down it. The daft thing is we are only a decade away from it being a serious consideration probably!
Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
Ok so the cluster of NE Wales seats - delyn, alyn and deeside etc are all currently lab ca 50 Tory in the 40s none else featuring, there's maybe 5 seats there, plus Gower and Newport and a couple of the Cardiff seats in a similar state, these would be legitimate Tory targets in a 33 to 25 Con v Lab result, in the sense that in a lab meltdown nobody else would take them from nowhere.......
Hmm, interesting, thank you. I haven't been to Wales for years. I still find it hard to see a Labour meltdown there. Elsewhere yes, but not Wales
On the one hand Welsh Lab are headed for a SLAB type tsunami at some point, on the other hand I don't see BoZos twatish English nationalism playing well over Offas Dyke either.
Rural Wales is not going to like No Deal.
Last Welsh only Westminster poll in late July had it Tories 24%, Labour 22%, Brexit Party 18%, LDs 16%, Plaid 15% in Wales
The political class need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy.
No problem with this sentence - it does the job - but I do recommend that you consider an alternative to the term "the political class" because, through no fault of its own, it has an aura of excitable demagoguery about it. Perhaps because there are so many reprehensible types who struggle to get through a sentence without it.
My suggestion is that you replace it with something simpler and more relevant to the point you are making.
MPs.
And look at the transformation -
"MPs need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy."
See?
We now have a comment that speaking for myself (and I would wager for others too) would have generated a cascade of 'likes' and '+1s'.
I think there is a danger of hyperbole with all this. I tend to take it with a pinch of salt when Leavers claim that if they don't get their way, and soon there are going to be barricades (presumably of bathchairs) on the streets. Britain has changed for the worse over this ridiculous saga, but this is still Britain
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
Few matters are. However the opposition should have taken the high ground and allowed for a three day recess. By denying the recess they look petty and vindictive and in the mould of the man-child presently holding the position of Prime Minister.</blockquote
I agree. The opposition should have allowed a three day recess.
It is petty , and will stoke up further resentment.
Changes compared to last YouGov published poll (rather than earlier poll published for the Times) Con +3, Lab -1, Lib nc, Brexit nc, Green +1, SNP -1
One small but telling point of detail. After excluding DKs, the Tories are now appealing more to the working class C2DEs than the middle class ABC1s. Labour is appealing more to the middle class than working class. i.e. Tory 32% of ABC1, 35% of C2DE Lab 22% ABC1, 21% C2DE Lib 27% ABC1, 15% C2DE Brexit 9% ABC1, 21% C2DE
The Tories still lead with middle class voters though and it is the LDs who now appeal most to middle class voters and the Brexit Party most to working class voters on % of their vote wise on those numbers.
The LDs are now second behind the Tories with middle class voters, the Brexit party tied second with Labour behind the Tories with working class voters
Saw an interesting proposal the other day for a space elevator to the moon for a few billion quid and a massive moon mining operation for helium 3 running up and down it. The daft thing is we are only a decade away from it being a serious consideration probably!
... provided someone can invent a hitherto unknown superstrong material to build it from.
Oh, and how do you get over the minor issue that the moon is anything but stationary relevant to the earth's surface?
Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.
Are his hands clean?
If both Trump and Pence resign then Nancy Pelosi becomes president!
Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.
Are his hands clean?
If both Trump and Pence resign then Nancy Pelosi becomes president!
Saw an interesting proposal the other day for a space elevator to the moon for a few billion quid and a massive moon mining operation for helium 3 running up and down it. The daft thing is we are only a decade away from it being a serious consideration probably!
... provided someone can invent a hitherto unknown superstrong material to build it from.
Oh, and how do you get over the minor issue that the moon is anything but stationary relevant to the earth's surface?
Kevlar is being proposed, very thin. Graphene would no doubt be the thought once mass production becomes available. The elevator can be extremely thin As for the moon moving, it's not a problem, it orbits and we are tidally locked. You could also do one into lunar orbit and then cheap transfer to and from a space station through the low resistance lunar atmosphere, it's not attached both ends
Just our on £5 at 20/1 for Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee. Has to be greater than 5% chance of Trump resigning or being impeached now, and I don’t see the GOP picking anyone other than Pence (who would be the incumbent president) if that happens.
Are his hands clean?
If both Trump and Pence resign then Nancy Pelosi becomes president!
Saw an interesting proposal the other day for a space elevator to the moon for a few billion quid and a massive moon mining operation for helium 3 running up and down it. The daft thing is we are only a decade away from it being a serious consideration probably!
... provided someone can invent a hitherto unknown superstrong material to build it from.
Oh, and how do you get over the minor issue that the moon is anything but stationary relevant to the earth's surface?
The elevator wouldn't connect to the moon. it'd just provide a place to launch ships from high earth orbit.
I don't think emeritus Supreme Court judges are allowed to say "don't take the piss". But I feel that we are concurring.
Sadly, the Einsteins in Number 10 don't seem to have absorbed that lesson, given the noises coming out of it.
Do you think that the case might have gone the other way (or at least not been decided unanimously) if the government had bothered to provide some justification for the long period of prorogation?
Yes I do. I found that an extraordinary display of arrogance.
It reminded me of a pensions case, actually, called Imperial Tobacco. That was the first case which introduced the implied duty of trust and confidence into pensions law. The employer was asked to give a reason for its actions and it refused point blank. Off the back of that, the judge held that its actions were improper. If they had given any view, they would probably have won the case.
I’ll add that one to my Westlaw reading list!
It has the great merit of being very short. Despite being given at speed and ex tempore, it was subsequently approved by the House of Lords.
The loss of the Conservative party conference is not a matter of national importance.
Few matters are. However the opposition should have taken the high ground and allowed for a three day recess. By denying the recess they look petty and vindictive and in the mould of the man-child presently holding the position of Prime Minister.
Wales: Labour goes from 28 to 15 seats. Tories up to 17.
This in firebrand socialist Welsh Wales.
So very very unlikely. A lot of even middle class Welsh people I have met would rather poke their eyes out with a stick than vote Tory.
Much of the Welsh red stronghold is predicated on red rosette on a donkey votes. If that starts to fracture a la Scotland 2010, the Tories are in a solid second in many seats. Its probably a reasonable bet for a BXP gain too somewhere if they poll above about 15% nationally
I would think Plaid or LibDems more likely beneficiaries in practice. Possibly the Brexit National Party
Plaid in places yes. The LDs are nowhere in Wales outside brecon, Montgomery and their Cardiff seat, a national Tory vote in the low 30s and a labour meltdown would lead to a handful of Tory welsh gains. If the Tories also meltdown then plaid and the BXP would benefit. Plaid will probably take Ynys Mon for example
I think if the Tories are the downward slide I cannot see people in Wales providing them with a fillip, tho I suppose the Scots did last time. Do they have a Welsh Ruth?
As things stand there is no chance of the Tories making net gains in Wales. Their leader in the Assembly is the 'dynamic' former bank manager turned farmer Paul Davies. Ever heard of him?
Comments
British sense of fair play?
I think the illegal prorogation shot that one in the head.
He talks of decency , then posts people he dislikes , are pond life.
The best politicians seek to appeal to the best in human nature and the worst seek to exploit the worst.
This applies wherever they are on the left/right spectrum.
I think that is perfectly possible that the Conservatives will lose Bedfordshire NE (one of their safest seats) if Alistair Burt decides to stand as an independent (and as many locally are urging him to do); he is a most exceptionally popular person locally.
I also think that the Lib Dems could win in Bedford, despite doing v badly last time. They have held the mayor post and the council (the boundaries of which do not fully match the constituency) for several years and have a well organized electoral team. The prospective tory candidate doesn't seem up to much, and certainly no match for Richard Fuller who lost his seat in 2017 who was a popular and energetic local figure. Mike Smithson lives in Bedford, and might comment
(Based on 2017 manifestos.)
The parties have all gone up/down in various amounts. Quite where those ups and downs are noone is quite sure.
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1177252358193078276
One small but telling point of detail. After excluding DKs, the Tories are now appealing more to the working class C2DEs than the middle class ABC1s. Labour is appealing more to the middle class than working class.
i.e.
Tory 32% of ABC1, 35% of C2DE
Lab 22% ABC1, 21% C2DE
Lib 27% ABC1, 15% C2DE
Brexit 9% ABC1, 21% C2DE
I'm gonna have a quick look at a few northern Welsh seats, hang on..........
The Cons currently have 7 seats. Based on current polling, the Cons would re-take Cardiff N, Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they have all held recently plus Wrexham, Delyn and Alyn where they have previously got close.
That would take them to 13. It would only take a small further swing to pick up Clwyd South, Bridgend and Newport West.
The 17th seat would either be re-taking Brecon or taking Newport East (much harder) or picking up Ynys Mon against a very split opposition
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1177254147156037632
There have been claims of dirty tricks in the Plaid Cymru choice of candidate, and one of the losers now sits as an independent.
I'd make the Tories slight favourites to take the seats.
Although unnoticed on pb.com, Plaid Cymru is not in a good place either. In fact, I expect them to lose seats (Ceredigion and Carmarthen West). I don't think they will be picking up any surprise gains.
My guess is that Adam Price's stupid agreement with the LibDems will mean that he is first out of the door after the GE.
Followed by whichever of Corby or Boris who has lost. Probably Corby.
Rural Wales is not going to like No Deal.
My suggestion is that you replace it with something simpler and more relevant to the point you are making.
MPs.
And look at the transformation -
"MPs need to calm down and stop the escalation otherwise it's going to end up a fight to the death with the victors dancing on the rubble of democracy."
See?
We now have a comment that speaking for myself (and I would wager for others too) would have generated a cascade of 'likes' and '+1s'.
Would the next meaningful event be Boris bring a deal before the house?
And assuming remainer MPs reject the final opportunity the next big event would be Corbyn submitting the extension request prior the GE?
He is Chief Executive of a bunch of charities. I expect he sold those BT shares that caused all the trouble when the market was high.
Because, even when an MP is hauled off to jail, they bounce back.
Anyone of our LibDem posters heard from the ex-Lag Chris Huhne.
I am sure he'll be fine too. PM Swinson will find some quango to offer him.
As far as I can see (based on my year or so) nobody escapes from here except in a coffin.
And even then it's touch and go.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1177145687114440704?s=20
(The whole thread is well worth a read.)
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-07-29/boris-bounce-as-poll-puts-tories-ahead-in-wales-for-westminster-election/
The LDs are now second behind the Tories with middle class voters, the Brexit party tied second with Labour behind the Tories with working class voters
Oh, and how do you get over the minor issue that the moon is anything but stationary relevant to the earth's surface?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession
As for the moon moving, it's not a problem, it orbits and we are tidally locked. You could also do one into lunar orbit and then cheap transfer to and from a space station through the low resistance lunar atmosphere, it's not attached both ends