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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chan
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chance for the nomination
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Never in doubt, ahem.
He’s got some strength in the south, but I don’t see how he wins this now. The electability argument just took a big hit.
https://twitter.com/lowles_nick/status/1176967504918450178
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/25/canadas-green-party-alters-photo-of-leader-elizabeth-may-using-single-use-cup
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1176971061860229120
Never thought Sanders (proven loser, too old) or Biden (gaffe prone, too old) would make it.
What else looks like value at the minute? Harris? 17/1 on BF exchange right now.
However Warren now leads with college educated Democrats, white Democratic voters, middle aged voters, high earning Democratic voters earning over $100k or middle income voters earning $50 to $100k and very Liberal or somewhat Liberal voters.
(Sanders leads with the youngest voters aged 18 to 34).
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7504983/Most-British-voters-want-snap-poll-think-Establishment-determined-block-Brexit.html
Respect for MPs is somewhat diminished from the halcyon days of yore.
But also Cory Booker, if he can make it through to the next debate. Biden's alliance is moderates and black voters, if that suddenly becomes available it wouldn't hurt to be black as well as moderate(-ish).
One thing Trump said in the phone call, Biden was publicly bragging about interfering in Ukraine justice and getting his son out of trouble, is there evidence Biden was bragging about that, can Trump refer to something to support what he claimed?
So, who's value?
Well, once you eliminate the impossible (Sanders and Yang), then that leaves four moderate, moderately young candidates:
- Kloubachar
- Buttigieg
- O'Rourke
- Harris
And of course, you probably shouldn't forget Tulsi Gabbard.
Will one of them have another moment in the sun? Could be. I personally think Buttigieg is the standout, because he's Iowa friendly. But small sums on the others might now be in order.
https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1176972406298173441?s=20
Con 27 (-2)
Lab 24 (nc)
LD 22 (+4)
BXP 16 (-1)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7504983/Most-British-voters-want-snap-poll-think-Establishment-determined-block-Brexit.html
41% think Boris would be the best PM, 21% chose Swinson and just 18% Corbyn.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7504983/Most-British-voters-want-snap-poll-think-Establishment-determined-block-Brexit.html
Swing to Remain as well. Also good to see.
http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/343903/thomas-cook-collapsed-with-deficit-of-over-3-billion
I wonder what the final score will be ?
I suspect the £2.585 billion of goodwill they had in their last accounts might turn out to be not worth that much after all.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1176972433586315264?s=19
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1176966764317630465?s=19
Earlier today the Attorney-General stated that the government would comply with the law.
This evening the Prime Minister said, in response to a question, that he would not.
Either the PM will have to change his mind or the A-G will have to resign.
We are in a very dangerous place when the PM stands up in Parliament and says he will not comply with the law.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=24&LIB=22&Brexit=16&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
We have seen this tried in the past, Lib Dem’s this side of pond often had campaigns hollowed out by promising nice things with money it was proved they wouldn’t get. I argue 2010 a good example.
As you appear to be defending this policy that will destroy her sounds like she is still wedded to it.
Perhaps Boris Johnson's impression of a less competent cross between Trump and Bolsonaro isn't the best vote-winner.
From the Labour conference.
At this rate, we will be stuck in the same loop as this evening for another 5 years.
74% of Tory voters back No Deal, 67% of Labour voters back further extension
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7504983/Most-British-voters-want-snap-poll-think-Establishment-determined-block-Brexit.html
Sadly I think the party brands are pretty deeply embedded, I doubt the flippening would be worth more than a few points, at least in the short term.
Anyway without being all tin foil hatted about it, well, there is now a lot of melting going on. Don’t know. Just seemed a prescient thing to say. And yes I know about 5D chess etc etc. And no I don’t think it’s all planned. Well not all of it.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1176962917658443777
Cannot believe I used to have a mancrush on him.
Your pro-Conservative Party zealotry and poll mangling is amusing but this is contemptible.
I know this is a fevered day dream. I know that Revoke risks serious civil strife. But that’s what I fear: serious civil strife. Both sides are equally guilty. Both sides are whipping it up.
Dear sweet Jo Swinson, with your mild Scottish vowels. Save us.
Which leaves actual assets with their value in pound notes and actual liabilities with their value in pound notes.
We are through the looking glass now.
Propaganda has to have some basic plausibility to be effective.
Particularly more right wing than the last one.
What will it take - another act of violence - for Boris and his fans to step back? Please God, no.
Can I just say, if there were an election tomorrow , Thursday, those totals you have quoted is exactly what I would expect to wake up to Friday morning.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1176976915992862720?s=21