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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is bigly yuge
NBC News has confirmed: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce later today that she now backs a formal impeachment inquiry, according to two Democratic sources close to her. https://t.co/sZpxsW3GPB
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https://twitter.com/SteveAkehurst/status/1176567265866768384?s=20
Remember if a GNU is installed after a VONC, the Tories will be the opposition, Corbyn loses his status as LOTO and could not call a VONC in the GNU
The FTPA. Jeez. Everything David Cameron did was utterly, utterly shit. “Ruining the country, I think I’d be quite good at that”.
Theory: David “snitch on the Queen” Cameron was the most catastrophic leader of a major western nation since the Second World War. I am struggling to think of anyone else with a legacy as grim and chaotic.
Actually, the most interesting thing about that clip is Farage’s face before the payoff. He senses this is a trap, and is immediately skeptical. Watch it.
He really is very sharp. An instinctively gifted politician like Salmond. Perhaps he’d be a good prime minister.
I couldn't believe the colour he was today.
In the intervening period the incumbent PM would be obliged to follow the law regarding requesting an extension to Article 50. Obviously it would be improper for them to do anything much apart from minding the shop, so to speak, but requesting an Article 50 extension would be perfectly within their power.
After losing the vote of no confidence Callaghan remained PM, with full prerogative powers, for example.
Certainly the new leader of the Opposition, having recently resigned the role of PM, would hardly be in a position to insist that they regain it, unless they could clearly demonstrate that they commanded majority support.
Art 50 revoked but we leave before 2022 anyway: 6%
Not utterly implausible if parliament revokes shortly followed by a GE won by leavers who then fast-track a deal (or exit with No Deal), or if it's a negotiating ruse to reset the article 50 clock (but if shortage of time to negotiate a new deal is the issue, exit before 2022 seems unlikely anyway). Still, 6% seems quite high as we know revoke doesn't have anything near a majority in the current HoC; if revoke is due to remainers winning the next GE then that doesn't leave much time for yet another GE to bring leavers to power again; if revoke is due to Remain winning a 2nd referendum then again it seems unlikely to be followed by Brexit within 2 years. Unless my maths is wrong the implication is should article 50 be revoked, there's a roughly 1 in 5 chance the revocation is followed by Brexit before 2022 anyway which sounds high.
But he was done over there.
Realized it but just a hair too late.
Has the Morning Star endorsed Corbyn? You should check, then hurry back here to tell us.
Is there a risk that instead of focusing on Trump people will start to take the Hunter Biden accusations seriously?
If we assume next GE has 40% chance of leave-without-ref majority, 60% chance of 2nd-ref-majority and 0% chance of revoke-without-ref majority, and leave has 1 in 3 chance of wining any referendum (and I think these assumptions fairly generous to leave), this still only gives 60% chance of leaving post-GE. (FWIW you can match Betfair's 70% implied probability if you assume 55% chance of outright leave majority, 45% chance 2nd ref majority, with 1 in 3 chance of leave winning 2nd ref. If you expect Farage to do his traditional FPTP crash-and-burn, then 55% seems a long way above the 33% chance of a Con majority.)
* Truth's more complicated eg could be multiple GEs in quick succession before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1176593584772067333
Our insane class system finally came back to haunt us.
Just asking.....
On topic, as implied by the thread header, I think the democrats need to be careful they don’t concentrate so much on this angle that they forget to critique his policies and the state of the country. It feels like this could be ok territory for Trump to fight on.
When you have pathological liars in charge does it really matter what they say they are going to do?
The truth matters. Integrity matters.
I genuinely cannot think of a leader, of a major western nation post-WW2, who has left a worse legacy than Cameron.
The closest I can come is Berlusconi in Italy, but even he wasn’t such a constitutional wrecking ball.
Trump may prove to be worse, but his career isn’t done yet, so we can’t tell. Blair was pretty bad with Iraq, but he didn’t destabilize the entire country.
UEFA confirm details of new third-tier competition alongside Champions League and Europa League. UEFA have confirmed their third club competition will be called the Europa Conference League, which will start in 2021.
Are they on OUR side.
That's it. That's the test,that's why Trump's ratings have barely any standard deviation and the Brexit + Tory share is almost invariant at ~ 47% in the polling.
Noone gives a flying fuck if anyone is telling the truth any more.
Watergate was not an immediate slam dunk case, and involved a lot more than the burglary, but decades on only cranks think that Nixon was not a crook. I've no doubt that history will be even less kind to Trump.
In fact it would surprise me if any of them had read and understood it.
Do Tories screaming their heads off really think someone like John McD wouldn't use the same trick, if SC had actually ruled it lawful.
Where would the Tories like the line drawn? 5 weeks is ok. 3 months not so good. 6 months - hold on this could be bad etc etc...
The US is going to throw the book at Trump and his cronies...it's going to be a full on clean hands approach...it has to move on from this miserable period in its history with some kind of credibility
Corbyn only gets away with his horrible Marxism, as much as he gets away with it, because he comes across as a twinkly eyed old geezer in a vest. Once Magic Grandpa has gone the far left project will be in desperate trouble. There’s no obvious successor. No one is going to sing “ohhh, John McDonnell”.
It's a very decent judgement and a useful weapon against arbitrary government; IMHO it is wrong in applying its powers to this circumstance - Boris was an idiot but not so egregious an idiot as to deserve nullifying his stupid prorogation.
Government case had no chance once it has lost on the principle, because it took the line that it was not interested in giving a rational account of why the prorogation was so long, so SC just jumped to a conclusion.
I see no reason to revise that prediction.
This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
McDonnell will say whatever is necessary for the relevant audience, and I fear a lot of people will buy it.
Care to offer a link to her saying they wouldn't provide confidence and supply to the Tories if the arithmetic makes that work?