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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings drop to the lowest fo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings drop to the lowest for an opposition leader since it started in 1977
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also, Emily T's taliban comments. christ.
But that is his limit.
Given the fact that it's now impossible to have an election before then, basing betting decisions on the current polls seems like a bad idea.
You weren't backing him, I hope!
1. The LDs start from such a low base last time that any improvement will be hailed as a marvellous vindication of any revoke policy. First past the post will probably not translate this into seats.
2. Corbyn, for his sins, is a good campaigner. He has been underestimated at every turn, do so again at your peril.
3. The Tory party are ahead in the polls, and perhaps by quite a way. We're leaving deal or no deal has as much clout on the doorstep as revoke and reform.
4. Everybody will probably be destroyed again in Scotland by the SNP.
When I'm betting I'm definitely factoring the innate conservatism of the electorate. I think we'll end up with a result halfway between 2015 and 2017 with a few LD gains.
Do not listen to the propaganda of the Judean People's Front! The slurs of splitters cannot besmirch our glorious red flag with the stain of truth!
Once Supreme Leader Corbyn assumes his rightful place and abolishes the private sector, a new era of prosperity and happiness, as is currently enjoyed by our socialist friends in Venezuela, shall be ushered in!
Do not listen to the propaganda of the People's Front of Judea! The slurs of splitters cannot besmirch our glorious blue flag with the stain of truth!
Once Supreme Leader Boris assumes his rightful place and abolishes cross border cooperation, a new era of prosperity and happiness, as is currently enjoyed by our isolationist friends in North Korea, shall be ushered in!
Because that number is massively low. And they may not know whether popery/Brexit is man or horse. But they know a patronising c*** suggesting they are thick when they hear one.....
Sounds fair enough.
What's with the donkey?
https://twitter.com/DavidDPaxton/status/1175014162759659521
Yang also looks overcooked and I think people are mad to top up on Warren at her price - though she has the sort of slow momentum that can win.
Biden about right maybe a bit long, perhaps a touch of Sanders value there.
The likeability of a leader should be regarded as a push or pull factor, not as decisive. And if someone wants to do a fancy study giving an estimate of that factor, we'd all be interested to read it I think.
The seven joiners from other parties are so far behind in their existing Constituencies, so personal votes of a few thousand aren't going to help them hold the seats. Besides, both Umunna and Berger are jumping ship to fight elsewhere.
With Nick Clegg's 23% performance in 2010, they managed only 57 seats, 1% higher vote share and 5 lower(!) seats.
60 seats is certainly doable. 80 is really pushing it. More than 100, and I would expect them to be on a least 35%, which I just can't see.
If things don't go to plan, I can easily see them NOT regaining third party in terms of seats.
Doubt I'm the first with that.
On the whole I think he should stick to stand-up.
Will Jezza join them ? Yes but again he will look weak and bitter for stopping a deal.
Likely the DUP won’t either.
Is there a medical issue?
Loath to join in with the ridicule just in case there is.
But if there isn't - what a plonker!
If Leavers' insist on using their favourite mic drop (they think) construction 'you were beaten by a bus', by the same token these stout country-fellows must have been persuaded by a bus. To think that the man on the Clapham omnibus used to represent an ordinary and reasonable person, now the bloke that believes any old shit on the side of said bus is that person ( I think we can dispense with the 'reasonable' at least).
Take your 35% in order to get 100 seats. That implies that everybod else has 65% between them. So how would that be distributed?
Labour 25% ( they wouldn't go very much lower would they?)
Brexit 10% maybe
Green 5%
Others 2%
So add that up and you get 23% left for the Tories.
With those figures it's landslide territory for the Lib Dems.
Not that I think it's going to happen, but they (and indeed anybody else) could win with around 30%, I think we should look at the opinion polls with that in mind.
Doesn't the government have until the end of 2020 to come up with a replacement to the backstop under the existing WA?
There is deep ignorance on the Remainer side too. And among pro-independence and anti-indpendence folks. And Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Green, Brexit, Plaid, DUP, Sinn Fein, and the fascists formerly known as Ukip. And the rest.
The fact that DAG is indisputably right about the Everest of ignorance about how easy leaving the EU would be doesn't mean for one moment that this is unique to those who voted Leave. The fact is, different groups have their egregious and painful examples of stupidity, and the ability of us to extract ourselves from the EU easily, holding all the cards, being needed more than we need, is the case in point today. It isn't the only case. It deserve focus only because it's the axe hovering over the neck of this country. Leavers are ignorant and stupid. But so is everyone else.
I've campaigned for candidates from two different parties. Street stalls, canvassing, leaflets at the shops, leaflets through the doors. I even went to a count once. That's more activism than most. And I'm struck by how often you hear media lines tripping out of the mouths of voters. They earnest believe what they say, but it's often other people's words. You can tell because exact slogans come out very often. And if you probe gently, just a little, you quickly meet a mass of unreconciled and often contradictory feelings.
I think it would have worked ok had he just said "terrorist group" to be fair
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/how-to-fix-politics-in-america/misinformation/
The joke would have lost something if he'd said '..a terrorist group from a country bordering a country in the Middle East'.
They still hold out hope that Brexit will never happen.
OT. For cinema lovers. 'The Farewell' is an excellent film. I only mention it because anyone reading a synopsis wouldn't go near it
To be fair to Tim, this is up there among his most memorable lines. It is an absolute bullseye hitting the target perfectly. It makes a strong point with clarity and humour. In addition it is concise.
A pity his other memorable lines were not helpful to him as leader.
No to the first (I would be happy to see May's deal signed).
Yes to second - the ERG continue to keep that hope alive.