Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Are you supporting the Democrats now?
No but a split anti Tory vote means Boris could win a majority on 32% whereas May could not won a majority on 42% in 2017 when Labour was far further ahead of the LDs
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Are you supporting the Democrats now?
No but a split anti Tory vote means Boris could win a majority on 32% whereas May could not won a majority on 42% in 2017 when Labour was far further ahead of the LDs
Come on, admit it! You're in the pay of Jo Swinson.
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Are you supporting the Democrats now?
No but a split anti Tory vote means Boris could win a majority on 32% whereas May could not won a majority on 42% in 2017 when Labour was far further ahead of the LDs
On a UNS basis , Ipsos Mori's 33% and a 9% lead would not produce a Tory majority - because of losses to the LDs and SNP.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
I am very confident he would outcampaign Swinson and quickly make her appear pretty irrelevant.
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Are you supporting the Democrats now?
No but a split anti Tory vote means Boris could win a majority on 32% whereas May could not won a majority on 42% in 2017 when Labour was far further ahead of the LDs
That's absolutely right. It's like when Blair achieved a large-ish majority on a mid-30s vote share.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
Another comparison might be with Barry Humphries. Off stage he is quiet and unassuming. On stage he puts on a dress, starts staggering around, screaming at the top of his voice and throwing gladioli at people.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
Another comparison might be with Barry Humphries. Off stage he is quiet and unassuming. On stage he puts on a dress, starts staggering around, screaming at the top of his voice and throwing gladioli at people.
If only Sir Les Patterson had been negotiating Brexit for us...
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Corbyn is clearly unpopular , but Johnson is far less popular than May was in April 2017 . As a result, the relative popularity of the leaders may matter less than two years ago. The Tory lead is also much smaller than was the case early in that campaign..
Labour is polling below even early 2017 levels though and the LDs far higher so the anti Tory vote is split
That depends on the poll - Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017. Recent polls have Labour in the range of 21% (Yougov) - 30% 9ICM). Most have the party in the mid- late 20s - broadly similar to April 2017 with the Tories much lower.
Both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori have Labour under 25%, Yougov now have the LDs ahead of Labour this week too
Are you supporting the Democrats now?
No but a split anti Tory vote means Boris could win a majority on 32% whereas May could not won a majority on 42% in 2017 when Labour was far further ahead of the LDs
That's absolutely right. It's like when Blair achieved a large-ish majority on a mid-30s vote share.
But it's not a certainty.
Depends entirely on how the Remain votes split. Yesterday on Newsnight, the LDs were saying they were targeting Chipping Barnet, A Remain constituency [ 59% ]. Theresa Villiers, a very prominent Leave MP. 2017 GE: Con 25k, Lab 25k , LD 3k. If it is anywhere near correct, the next MP will be T Villiers. BTW, the Labour candidate is pro Remain. Edit: Could be Luciana Berger could be the rumoured candidate. Still doesn't change the stats or the outcome.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
I am very confident he would outcampaign Swinson and quickly make her appear pretty irrelevant.
That might happen.
But then again it might not.
I think being "very confident" about how any of this plays out is a mugs game. In particular, it relies on extremely Remain voters in London returning to Jeremy. Will it happen? Possibly. But being "very confident" seems extrmely complacent, and assumes a straight rerun of 2017.
Even if the DUP and the EU play ball, there are many obstacles to it working, not least the timescale.
Anyway it's very hard to see how he could get such a deal getting parliament. The opposition parties aren't going to cooperate in setting themselves up to be 'up the electoral creek without a paddle', and he's carelessly turned a tiny majority into a majority of -43 or whatever it is this week. Since parliament probably has the option to force him to miss his self-imposed do-or-die deadline, and he's made many gratuitous enemies, I don't see where the votes come from even if the DUP do vote for the fudge.
If you read Arlene's comments, she's sounding like she's OK with the backstop so long as Stormont can vote for Northern Ireland to leave it. (Which, from a practical perspective, means Northern Ireland will never leave the backstop, as it will have the flexibility of British regulation in areas like employment law, yet be a part of the Single Market. I would load up on Belfast property in that scenario.)
Would Francois and Baker vote for this? I don't know. And I think there are precious few Labour-ites who'd want to support Boris, because Tory Brexit.
Francois and Baker voted in principle for this with the Brady Amendment. If the DUP are on board [big if] and if the EU agree [big if] then the Tories will have to come on board. Boris will rightly point at Grieve and co and say its this deal or you're out too.
I suspect Boris will also speak to Clarke, Stewart and all the other expelled rebels who voted for the deal [probably not Grieve and definitely not Lee] and tell them this is their chance to both secure the deal and regain the whip.
Then there's Norman Lamb and the 'MPs for a deal' who will look really stupid if they don't back a deal.
Ultimately I think the numbers are there so long as the DUP are on board. Get Ireland and the DUP to both agree to the same thing and its hard to see it not get passed.
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred to. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented for examination at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
Another comparison might be with Barry Humphries. Off stage he is quiet and unassuming. On stage he puts on a dress, starts staggering around, screaming at the top of his voice and throwing gladioli at people.
If only Sir Les Patterson had been negotiating Brexit for us...
I believe he was able to find time to give Dominic Cummings a little coaching in diplomacy.
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
Understood, but I'm going a step further and asking whether an EU country can just say they aren't going to accept any consignments of eggs until whatever outbreak is happening unhappens. It's one thing having border checks that will slow things down, but it's quite another to be at the mercy of some outbreak somewhere in the country suddenly shutting all prospects of trade. If that is a possibility, it would be a brave investor to invest in UK exporting businesses. This kind of thing will kill businesses stone dead.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Do you expect the same thing to happen during the next election campaign, ie. Labour to go from about 25% to about 40%?
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
Understood, but I'm going a step further and asking whether an EU country can just say they aren't going to accept any consignments of eggs until whatever outbreak is happening unhappens. It's one thing having border checks that will slow things down, but it's quite another to be at the mercy of some outbreak somewhere in the country suddenly shutting all prospects of trade. If that is a possibility, it would be a brave investor to invest in UK exporting businesses. This kind of thing will kill businesses stone dead.
The EU banned British beef imports during the BSE crisis. I suppose that was an animal disease but as it also affected humans the analogy would seem sound.
Edit: you did say [individual] EU country, but the point seems relevant.
Another comparison might be with Barry Humphries. Off stage he is quiet and unassuming. On stage he puts on a dress, starts staggering around, screaming at the top of his voice and throwing gladioli at people.
Take your point. But I think Buble is the slightly better comparison.
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
Understood, but I'm going a step further and asking whether an EU country can just say they aren't going to accept any consignments of eggs until whatever outbreak is happening unhappens. It's one thing having border checks that will slow things down, but it's quite another to be at the mercy of some outbreak somewhere in the country suddenly shutting all prospects of trade. If that is a possibility, it would be a brave investor to invest in UK exporting businesses. This kind of thing will kill businesses stone dead.
It would not be for individual EU members to decide this. Given the way the single market works, critical UK imports would be barred from entry into any EU member state.
The problems at the border will not just be a "slowing down", the French are building a BIP in Calais (75% of UK agrifood exports to the EU enter there, as of today there is no BIP), it is estimated that this BIP will have approximately 1,5% of the required capacity for existing levels of trade, the other 98,5% will simply not be able to be processed.
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
Understood, but I'm going a step further and asking whether an EU country can just say they aren't going to accept any consignments of eggs until whatever outbreak is happening unhappens. It's one thing having border checks that will slow things down, but it's quite another to be at the mercy of some outbreak somewhere in the country suddenly shutting all prospects of trade. If that is a possibility, it would be a brave investor to invest in UK exporting businesses. This kind of thing will kill businesses stone dead.
The EU banned British beef imports during the BSE crisis. I suppose that was an animal disease but as it also affected humans the analogy would seem sound.
Edit: you did say [individual] EU country, but the point seems relevant.
Indeed, I think a couple of hundred people died from vCJD?
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
I am very confident he would outcampaign Swinson and quickly make her appear pretty irrelevant.
That might happen.
But then again it might not.
I think being "very confident" about how any of this plays out is a mugs game. In particular, it relies on extremely Remain voters in London returning to Jeremy. Will it happen? Possibly. But being "very confident" seems extrmely complacent, and assumes a straight rerun of 2017.
History never completely repeats itself - but I strongly suspect that Kinabalu is correct here. Campaigning is Corbyn's natural forte, and I expect him to be the most effective of the three party leaders. Johnson has rather shot his bolt - and underperformed my expectations over the last month. Labour probably has the measure of him now in a way that was not the case when he took office.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
It shouldn't be a big deal in that situation, but for plenty it does seem to be, there's no other explanation for being so firm on the date.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
I am very confident he would outcampaign Swinson and quickly make her appear pretty irrelevant.
That might happen.
But then again it might not.
I think being "very confident" about how any of this plays out is a mugs game. In particular, it relies on extremely Remain voters in London returning to Jeremy. Will it happen? Possibly. But being "very confident" seems extrmely complacent, and assumes a straight rerun of 2017.
History never completely repeats itself - but I strongly suspect that Kinabalu is correct here. Campaigning is Corbyn's natural forte, and I expect him to be the most effective of the three party leaders. Johnson has rather shot his bolt - and underperformed my expectations over the last month. Labour probably has the measure of him now in a way that was not the case when he took office.
Probably, it's just a question of how much Corbyn can recover his position - he is setting himself a big challenge.
It's all the rage thesedays in many countries. Don't eventuall learn to compromise and make the public realise you have to do so and can accept that, just deadlock, hope for another election and that things will shift enough.
I am very confident he would outcampaign Swinson and quickly make her appear pretty irrelevant.
Can't quite decide about Swinson. She has energy - which is good - but I find her a bit twitchy and overly intense when placed in a TV studio setting. Could be that this will change with more experience. It could also be that other people do not react as I do.
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred to. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented for examination at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
BIPS handle Live annimal, dead animal, fish, diary and honey. Other foodstuffs do not need to go via a BIPS.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
I've come across a stat very relevant to this thread. JC's rating went from -45 to +6 over the course of the GE17 campaign. Imagine that. In fact you don't have to imagine since it happened. And only 2 years ago. So why would this not happen again, at least to an extent? My sense is that Corbyn is somebody who comes alive in an election, any election, remember his Labour leadership campaigns too? He's all about elections. You think he's nothing special, based on how he is when there isn't one on, and then - bam - when the time cometh so cometh does the man. He is not unlike a major music star in this regard. For example, Michael Buble. Buble, off stage, is quiet, unassuming, the sort of guy you'd barely notice. But when he takes the stage, mic in hand, different story. He becomes electric, formidable.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Do you expect the same thing to happen during the next election campaign, ie. Labour to go from about 25% to about 40%?
I expect Labour's polling to rise. By that much? Well, that would be extraordinary. I wouldn't bank on it. Seems to me that the Tory fire will be divide "keep the marxists out!" and "boo to the liberal antidemocrats!" I'm not sure the Tories have the capacity to fight well on two fronts.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
From a technical perspective, it's surely a bit more complex than that, because we will need different legislation regarding (for example) double taxation and withholding taxes in the event of Deal and No Deal. There's a lot of legislation that needs to be put through, most of which is fairly routine, but will cause problems if it's not in place.
Superb. JRM has always reminded me of Viz's "Victorian Dad". I seem to recall that one episode of that fine comic strip ended with the eponymous character "wanking himself unconscious" over some kind of 19th century pornography.
The truth is that Corbyn doesnt particularly care one way or the other on Europe, he's been forced by his very remain party into another ref even though he'd probably rather be out on a personal basis.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Certainly on the evidence we have he seems to be a better campaigner than he is a leader.
But if he does make PM, who knows? He could be one of the greats.
FFS there is zero evidence that Corbyn displays any of the administrative skills, negotiating skills or real world leadership skills that would mark him out as a real PM candidate
He doesn't even know his own Brexit policy - as evidenced by his interview with BBC NI
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
The Benn Act and others are not exactly models of good parliamentary procedure.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Certainly on the evidence we have he seems to be a better campaigner than he is a leader.
But if he does make PM, who knows? He could be one of the greats.
FFS there is zero evidence that Corbyn displays any of the administrative skills, negotiating skills or real world leadership skills that would mark him out as a real PM candidate
He doesn't even know his own Brexit policy - as evidenced by his interview with BBC NI
I'm more worried by the malice of Milne than Corbyn's personal incompetence. Identical to Boris / Cummings. In truth I think we could do without either.
I wonder how Swinson's figures compare to Johnson's?
We'll have to see whether Johnson's figures do implode after October 31st, as hoped by the anti no deal brigade.
Also, whether it is Jezza or Jo that voters think of as LOTO )B
Will Labour prop up a minority Swinson government?
Far from certain that the LDs end up with more MPs than they have now - though they may reach 25.
They are currently on, what, 16 or 17?
Nothing is certain, and there are a fair number of their existing seats that are threatened. But I would be very surprised if they didn't make their current mark. Simply, there are a lot of seats (as in 12-20) in deepest Remainia where they would expect to do very well.
Jo Swinson is a more formidable opponent than Tim Farron. The coalition was an increasingly long time ago. And there's a good 20-25% of the electorate who are (to use HYUFD's phrase) Diehard Remainers.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
It has to go into a WAIB which is hundreds of pages long and needs to go through both houses .
Do you expect given all the underhand tricks of Bozo and Cummings that MPs should wave through this legislation without going through it properly .
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
He needs to first get through the Queens Speech. No Opposition help with that.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Certainly on the evidence we have he seems to be a better campaigner than he is a leader.
But if he does make PM, who knows? He could be one of the greats.
FFS there is zero evidence that Corbyn displays any of the administrative skills, negotiating skills or real world leadership skills that would mark him out as a real PM candidate
He doesn't even know his own Brexit policy - as evidenced by his interview with BBC NI
I'm more worried by the malice of Milne than Corbyn's personal incompetence. Identical to Boris / Cummings. In truth I think we could do without either.
Corbyn has a nasty side - we have seen it when he has been challenged. There is malice in his gang that goes beyond Milne.
If Johnson was being serious why hold the Queens Speech before getting a deal . Shouldn’t parliament be scrutinizing his alleged deal rather than spending days over the QS when an election is likely soon anyway in which there will be another QS.
In short: Corbyn is a useless leader and a brilliant campaigner.
Certainly on the evidence we have he seems to be a better campaigner than he is a leader.
But if he does make PM, who knows? He could be one of the greats.
FFS there is zero evidence that Corbyn displays any of the administrative skills, negotiating skills or real world leadership skills that would mark him out as a real PM candidate
He doesn't even know his own Brexit policy - as evidenced by his interview with BBC NI
I'm more worried by the malice of Milne than Corbyn's personal incompetence. Identical to Boris / Cummings. In truth I think we could do without either.
Corbyn has a nasty side - we have seen it when he has been challenged. There is malice in his gang that goes beyond Milne.
Good point. Similar with Boris. Although with Corbyn is seems to be a hot temper, and with Boris it's more of a cold thuggishness.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
It has to go into a WAIB which is hundreds of pages long and needs to go through both houses .
Do you expect given all the underhand tricks of Bozo and Cummings that MPs should wave through this legislation without going through it properly .
To avoid what is supposed to be a no deal apocalypse if it doesn't go through? Yes, yes I do.
Besides the agreement can't be amended by Parliament. It is a multilateral 28 nation agreement that is take it or leave it.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
From a technical perspective, it's surely a bit more complex than that, because we will need different legislation regarding (for example) double taxation and withholding taxes in the event of Deal and No Deal. There's a lot of legislation that needs to be put through, most of which is fairly routine, but will cause problems if it's not in place.
We are talking about if there is a Deal. If there is a Deal we pretty much need to ratify the Deal, which then takes us to a rather standstill agreement, and then because not much is changing instantly the rest can be put through as and when possible. Backdated if need be, because not much is changing instantly.
It’s ridiculous, if there’s a deal which passes surely at that point Leavers will say fine we’re definitely leaving . A month to get the legislation through isn’t a big deal but I don’t think like a Leaver !
Did it take a month to get the Benn legislation through?
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
It has to go into a WAIB which is hundreds of pages long and needs to go through both houses .
Do you expect given all the underhand tricks of Bozo and Cummings that MPs should wave through this legislation without going through it properly .
To avoid what is supposed to be a no deal apocalypse if it doesn't go through? Yes, yes I do.
Besides the agreement can't be amended by Parliament. It is a multilateral 28 nation agreement that is take it or leave it.
MPs can amend the motion on the deal to include an extension to pass the WAIB. So in effect they pass the deal but this only comes into force if there’s an extension .
If Johnson is so keen on a deal he’ll accept it , if not we’ll know he’s not serious .
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
In a No-Deal scenario most British agrifood exports to the EU will cease immediately, even without stories like the one you referred to. The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented for examination at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
BIPS handle Live annimal, dead animal, fish, diary and honey. Other foodstuffs do not need to go via a BIPS.
The original question was about eggs. UK exports of food of non-animal origin to the EU are indeed subject to different regulations with different requirements. In a No-Deal scenario these requirements can obviously no longer be fulfilled, i.e. they will also cease until a new deal will have been struck.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/dozens-of-people-poisoned-this-year-by-salmonella-infected-british-eggs
The UK exports about ten million eggs per month. What happens if there's no deal when stories like the above happen? Do other countries just shut down British egg imports?
But it's not a certainty.
I wonder how Swinson's figures compare to Johnson's?
We'll have to see whether Johnson's figures do implode after October 31st, as hoped by the anti no deal brigade.
If it is anywhere near correct, the next MP will be T Villiers. BTW, the Labour candidate is pro Remain.
Edit: Could be Luciana Berger could be the rumoured candidate. Still doesn't change the stats or the outcome.
But then again it might not.
I think being "very confident" about how any of this plays out is a mugs game. In particular, it relies on extremely Remain voters in London returning to Jeremy. Will it happen? Possibly. But being "very confident" seems extrmely complacent, and assumes a straight rerun of 2017.
I suspect Boris will also speak to Clarke, Stewart and all the other expelled rebels who voted for the deal [probably not Grieve and definitely not Lee] and tell them this is their chance to both secure the deal and regain the whip.
Then there's Norman Lamb and the 'MPs for a deal' who will look really stupid if they don't back a deal.
Ultimately I think the numbers are there so long as the DUP are on board. Get Ireland and the DUP to both agree to the same thing and its hard to see it not get passed.
The relevant EU directives regulating third country agrifood imports (each consignment needs to presented for examination at Border Inspection Posts, of wich there are far to few for UK-EU trade) have already been in force for many years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/whistleblower-complaint-about-president-trump-involves-ukraine-according-to-two-people-familiar-with-the-matter/2019/09/19/07e33f0a-daf6-11e9-bfb1-849887369476_story.html
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1174874518080434176
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1175066441147670534
It's one thing having border checks that will slow things down, but it's quite another to be at the mercy of some outbreak somewhere in the country suddenly shutting all prospects of trade.
If that is a possibility, it would be a brave investor to invest in UK exporting businesses. This kind of thing will kill businesses stone dead.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1175091672293793792
Will Labour prop up a minority Swinson government?
Will Leavers riot if there’s a month extension?
MPs should amend the legislation and include a technical extension which the EU will be happy to grant .
Edit: you did say [individual] EU country, but the point seems relevant.
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1175078925623615491?s=21
The problems at the border will not just be a "slowing down", the French are building a BIP in Calais (75% of UK agrifood exports to the EU enter there, as of today there is no BIP), it is estimated that this BIP will have approximately 1,5% of the required capacity for existing levels of trade, the other 98,5% will simply not be able to be processed.
If there's a deal that passes then just do it. Get it through in 24 hours if need be.
Seems to me that the Tory fire will be divide "keep the marxists out!" and "boo to the liberal antidemocrats!" I'm not sure the Tories have the capacity to fight well on two fronts.
But if he does make PM, who knows? He could be one of the greats.
He doesn't even know his own Brexit policy - as evidenced by his interview with BBC NI
Nothing is certain, and there are a fair number of their existing seats that are threatened. But I would be very surprised if they didn't make their current mark. Simply, there are a lot of seats (as in 12-20) in deepest Remainia where they would expect to do very well.
Jo Swinson is a more formidable opponent than Tim Farron. The coalition was an increasingly long time ago. And there's a good 20-25% of the electorate who are (to use HYUFD's phrase) Diehard Remainers.
Do you expect given all the underhand tricks of Bozo and Cummings that MPs should wave through this legislation without going through it properly .
Besides the agreement can't be amended by Parliament. It is a multilateral 28 nation agreement that is take it or leave it.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099584449785857
If Johnson is so keen on a deal he’ll accept it , if not we’ll know he’s not serious .
UK exports of food of non-animal origin to the EU are indeed subject to different regulations with different requirements.
In a No-Deal scenario these requirements can obviously no longer be fulfilled, i.e. they will also cease until a new deal will have been struck.