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SystemSystem Posts: 12,824
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI has the LDs at a post-GE2010 high with a big increase in awareness of Joe Swinson if not her net satisfaction figures

NEW @IpsosMORI /@standardnews POLL

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,888
    edited September 2019
    First, but unable to call a GE, dammit.

    This thread seems rather empty. Did I prorogue it by mistake?

    Whistles...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Second, just like a zombie government.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,126
    Third, like the rate of advocacy by Lavery QC today.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,538
    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Good time for a new thread. TSE, bless him, was just digging his hole deeper.

    ON topic, GO JO! REPLACE THE EVIL MARXISTS

    And now I must do some work. Later.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,168
    edited September 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1174673501757853696
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Not a fan of O’Neill:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174674406456647680?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    isam said:

    I think I've spotted a trend in the headers... #WelcomeBackOGH


    Well it is the LD conference season.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,982
    edited September 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    Amazing what the addition/omission of a vowel can do. Joe Swinson has a certain kitchen-sinky, 1950s feel, possibly played by Albert Finney in the film.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    isam said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
    Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Yep. Dreadful optics for Jezza.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Remainers Leaving Labour:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1174652226276679681?s=20
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    I think I've spotted a trend in the headers... #WelcomeBackOGH


    The really good news is that we can go back to reporting polls in the "+/- from previous poll" format.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,560
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    GIN1138 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Yep. Dreadful optics for Jezza.
    Once Labour have agreed a clear policy at conference the LD surge will surely go into reverse.

    What's that you say? Oh.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Stuff happening

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Shame Kirsten Johnson has stood down as the LD candidate in North Devon. Not at all surprising - she screwed up royally in that interview - but she was an excellent councillor in Oxfordshire and would have made a good MP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,426
    edited September 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

    It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<
    Anabobazina said:

    isam said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
    Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.
    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    One more go at this.

    Well done David. FFS. Grrrrr


    "Sturgeon signals Queen should stay out of future Scotland vote

    "First minister implies call for help should be refused after Cameron sought intervention"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/nicola-sturgeon-signals-queen-should-stay-out-future-scotland-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,100
    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,538
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    Too early to tell. Labour's gamble was not that they benefit now but that they'd benefit on 1 November (or at least that Johnson would lose out).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,100
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

    Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,538
    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    Stuff happening

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

    There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

    Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.
    Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

    I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,076
    edited September 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

    If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

    It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<
    Anabobazina said:

    isam said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
    Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.
    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?
    Joe is
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

    It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<
    Anabobazina said:

    isam said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
    Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.
    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?
    Joe is usually short for Joseph, ergo the masculine form.

    Jo for Joanne (in Swinson’s Case), Joanna or Josephine.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,067
    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Joseph.

    I know a female work colleague who uses Joe. She's Joanne.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TGOHF said:

    Stuff happening

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

    There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
    Not a chance - Boris is not going anywhere regardless of what the SC says.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,252
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The shift remains an entirely voluntary strategic mistake, and a damned silly one at that.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    +1. I enjoyed it. It does deposit you in the arse end of Belfast at some ungodly hour though (choice of Protestant/Catholic "ungodly" is left up to the traveller).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,076
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    If youre in to vomit surfing, I cant think of much better
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

    Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

    WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

    MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,100
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

    If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.
    I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TGOHF said:

    Stuff happening

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

    There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
    Who would replace him though?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    TheValiant said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Joseph.

    I know a female work colleague who uses Joe. She's Joanne.

    https://youtu.be/d6r6nhBcIbA
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,560
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Byronic said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

    Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.
    Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

    I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

    Agreed. I hate Ryanair with a passion though
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

    If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.
    I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.
    ooh Posh. You can do their water tasting course where they charge you a couple of limbs to taste water from around the world.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 973
    Evenig Standard and Britain Elects have the IPSOS poll at Con 33 (-1, Labour 24 no change, Lib Dem 23 ( +3), as there could well be high turn out these figures may be more relevant. Number of local by elections tonight which on paper the Lib Dems could take, be interesting tonight.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    Too early to tell. Labour's gamble was not that they benefit now but that they'd benefit on 1 November (or at least that Johnson would lose out).
    Which is a hand I thought then and now that they misplayed. By being so overtly compulsive in forcing an extension and rejecting an election they made it clear they were the reason we're still in on 1 November, whereas in March PM May voted voluntarily on a free vote to request an extension. May wanted to remain in March, Johnson wanted to leave then and leave still in October. The betrayal in March was that remain-voting PM May chose to remain over leave.

    Had Corbyn and co been less restrictive and Johnson had voluntarily sought an extension because he couldn't get his deal with and didn't genuinely want no deal, then I think Johnson's support would have fractured to the BXP like May's did.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited September 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    By pointing out he did everything he possibly could, blaming the undemocratic Remainers and arguing for a united Brexit majority to defeat them once and for all.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,822
    Byronic said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

    Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

    WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

    MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.
    Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Byronic said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
    Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

    Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.
    Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

    I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

    Agreed. I hate Ryanair with a passion though
    likewise. My loathing of Ryanair borders on the irrational. Even their colour scheme irks me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    edited September 2019
    Baxter gives Con a majority of 78 based on MORI - getting close to landslide territy now. :D
  • isamisam Posts: 43,168
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

    Why would she be in any debates with the other two?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    He was forced to do it by Parliament. A Parliament he would be seeking to replace.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
    Always.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Nope.

    My lad is a Joe/Joseph

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    The problem is that Labour are not really drifting into being a Remain party. Under Corbyn, they are just drifting. Nobody knows what they really stand for, except that a lot of people sense that it is towards a Socialist dictatorship.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,169
    Tabman said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Nope.

    My lad is a Joe/Joseph

    Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
    Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.


    Yes, the optics of two bigoted old white men versus a nice bright Celtic lady with dangly earrings and a clear message might not work to the big two’s advantage.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Dura_Ace said:

    Byronic said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

    Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

    WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

    MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.
    Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.
    The answer is in my comment. I am fascinated by Cameron's psychology. What would bring a "well-bred" Old Etonian Tory to do something so blatantly non-U as snitching on the Queen?!

    I accept others won't share my fascination, so I shall draw a line under the subject, until Cameron's next clanging error.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,477
    isam said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

    Why would she be in any debates with the other two?
    Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Gabs2 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
    Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
    Thank god.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,952
    Byronic said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

    Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

    WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

    MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.
    Or his publishers told him his book was dull and were there any stories he could add to liven it up please before they asked him for a return of their advance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,982
    Sorry to be ungallant, but since royalty is the plat du jour, the Countess of Wessex looks awfy aged. Being married to a count must do that to you.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1174669875970793472?s=20
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Anabobazina said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.


    Yes, the optics of two bigoted old white men versus a nice bright Celtic lady with dangly earrings and a clear message might not work to the big two’s advantage.
    It is worth pointing out everyone mocked me when I predicted poll shares with the Lib Dems would come second a few weeks back. One person claimed I was posting from Moscow.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,252
    F1: currently a high chance of rain for Saturday and Sunday.

    During the only wet Singapore Grand Prix to date the drainage was appalling.

    Also, just seen Kubica won't be with Williams next year. Not too surprising, alas. Just not quick enough.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    If the prize is Brexit, I'll stick with 237
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sorry to be ungallant, but since royalty is the plat du jour, the Countess of Wessex looks awfy aged. Being married to a count must do that to you.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1174669875970793472?s=20

    But she is married to an Earl...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,560
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
    Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

    Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
    Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
    Thank god.
    I made it much more intuitive by using a 1000 boxes. Usually it is done with three boxes, which trips people up more.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    For future reference

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174682308500164609
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,952
    Byronic said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Byronic said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

    Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

    WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

    MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.
    Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.
    The answer is in my comment. I am fascinated by Cameron's psychology. What would bring a "well-bred" Old Etonian Tory to do something so blatantly non-U as snitching on the Queen?!

    I accept others won't share my fascination, so I shall draw a line under the subject, until Cameron's next clanging error.
    I am not surprised. Sometimes the stupidest things are done by people who are, on paper anyway, really quite bright. What they lack is common-sense. You meet Cameron’s type all the time in the City.

    At least I do .....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

    Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

    In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

    By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

    A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

    I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.
    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    He was forced to do it by Parliament. A Parliament he would be seeking to replace.
    Rule No 1

    It is always the government's fault.

    Rule No 2

    Johnson lies every time he opens his mouth.

    Rule No 3

    There is no such thing as a single-issue general election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,169
    Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
    See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    Depends what the Monty Hall problem represents.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGxyIQzLeUc
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
    Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

    Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/
    And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
    Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

    Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/
    May was weak. She wasn't forced to request an extension, she voluntarily chose to do so.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1174683648584552448
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,560
    Gabs2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
    Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

    Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/
    And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.
    They'll look unconvincing to diehard Brexiteers, and hysterical to everyone else.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1174684289239322627
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    OldKingCole said:

    Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
    See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

    They will win the west Somerset one I think
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

    Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
    Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
    Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

    Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

    If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?
    Simple.

    Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.
    Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

    Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/
    And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.
    They'll look unconvincing to diehard Brexiteers, and hysterical to everyone else.
    Funny how everyone saying it'll look unconvincing to Brexiteers is actually a Remainer. I don't see any Brexiteers here saying that.

    Its dangerous for you to drink your own koolaid.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,168
    edited September 2019
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

    Why would she be in any debates with the other two?
    Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.
    If there were to be a tv debate, it would be Boris vs Jezza, or everyone including the Greens, Farage, PC, Sturgeon etc, so the opportunity for a contrast between lovely wee Jo, and the horrid men wouldnt arise
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1174684742014443520
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,252
    Mr. Divvie, there are no British counts. There are earls, derived from the Scandinavian jarl.

    You naughty sausage, you.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    OldKingCole said:

    Tabman said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Nope.

    My lad is a Joe/Joseph

    Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.
    Joseph? Dickens wrote about Joe Gargery
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,252
    F1: sorely tempted by Bottas each way at 7.5 for qualifying but the weather forecast has put me off. Could be a very peculiar session. Or entirely ordinary.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

    Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool :lol:

    I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,807
    edited September 2019
    OldKingCole said:

    Tabman said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?

    Nope.

    My lad is a Joe/Joseph

    Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.
    The ONS tracker is fascinating (to me at least!) on this.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc363/babyindex.html

    (Joe has actually dropped in the last 20 years)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,194
    OldKingCole said:

    Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
    See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

    This ward looks suspiciously gerrymandered. What’s all that about?


  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    oo's this c*nt coughing
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,194
    Freggles said:

    Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

    Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool :lol:

    I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP

    Really can’t see City of Durham going Lib Dem no matter how much I would like it to.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Gabs2 said:

    From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

    I feel I’m going to regret this...

    Do I swap?
    Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
    Thank god.
    I can’t get my head round why it isn’t 50/50. :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Freggles said:

    Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

    Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool :lol:

    I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP

    Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,100
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    And youre going to Belfast ??? :smiley: : )

    First weekend of March next year.

    I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

    PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
    Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

    If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.
    I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.
    ooh Posh. You can do their water tasting course where they charge you a couple of limbs to taste water from around the world.
    My kind of establishment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
    See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

    This ward looks suspiciously gerrymandered. What’s all that about?


    That doesn’t look particularly gerrymandered, just avoiding the town. If you want gerrymandered constituencies, check out the US congress.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,338
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

    It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<
    Anabobazina said:

    isam said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

    Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

    If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza
    Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.
    Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

    Joe = Joe ?
    you missed Jocinda
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