I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.
Why would she be in any debates with the other two?
Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.
If there were to be a tv debate, it would be Boris vs Jezza, or everyone including the Greens, Farage, PC, Sturgeon etc, so the opportunity for a contrast between lovely wee Jo, and the horrid men wouldnt arise
We need to move away from the very concept of debates. They are just noise and not good at eliciting anything useful.
I would far rather have a panel interviewing each party leader individually - you are far more likely to expose flaws that way than in the back and forth of 'debates' - which are just an excuse to trot out soundbites and throw abuse.
Proper detailed interviews with forensic questions would be far more use
I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.
Why would she be in any debates with the other two?
Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.
If there were to be a tv debate, it would be Boris vs Jezza, or everyone including the Greens, Farage, PC, Sturgeon etc, so the opportunity for a contrast between lovely wee Jo, and the horrid men wouldnt arise
We need to move away from the very concept of debates. They are just noise and not good at eliciting anything useful.
I would far rather have a panel interviewing each party leader individually - you are far more likely to expose flaws that way than in the back and forth of 'debates' - which are just an excuse to trot out soundbites and throw abuse.
Proper detailed interviews with forensic questions would be far more use
I make you right, they are just slanging matches, and insincere ones at that. Same goes for QT and Politics Live etc in the main
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
The map seems unbelievable. I can see them getting a bunch of Remainer Tory seats in the home counties but Berwick, north Norfolk and most the Westcountry? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
I see that Flavible has Raab losing his seat. Nice.
I hadn’t quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the Commons and look at how we get elected, we are particularly reliant on receiving more votes than the next candidate.
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Really can’t see City of Durham going Lib Dem no matter how much I would like it to.
It's thoroughly silly.
That was the consensus on the YouGov seat model last time, until the results came through.
Flavible is attempting to factor in demographic, EU referendum, EU election and local election results into its predictions. It is therefore identifying those seats where the LibDems are likely to overperform the national swing (the examples above seem very credible to me).
Doubtless its assumptions are likely to be off but assuming an even swing next time will certainly be off.
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
The map seems unbelievable. I can see them getting a bunch of Remainer Tory seats in the home counties but Berwick, north Norfolk and most the Westcountry? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
"I’ve just completed an Opinium survey that wanted to know my constituency and what I would do given, as the questionnaire said, this would be a battle between LAB and CON."
Not good at all to hear that Opinium have been push-polling like this.
PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?
The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.
Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?
Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.
Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.
I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.
+1, it is surprisingly good, especially if you have some kind of lounge access
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
The map seems unbelievable. I can see them getting a bunch of Remainer Tory seats in the home counties but Berwick, north Norfolk and most the Westcountry? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
Whyever not? 48% of the country voted to Remain in the referendum. And the Lib Dems are very clearly 100% in favour of remaining.
As well as being reliable, consistent, competent and experienced in government.
What can you say in favour of Corbyn`s Labour Party?
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
It's reassuring that pro mathematicians were, at first, equally perplexed and disbelieving
In words, isn’t it simply that the box you have chosen has a 1 in 1000 chance of being right - and this probability cannot be changed by the host opening all the other empty boxes. Therefore the remaining unopened box accounts for the remaining 999 chances.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
I don’t imagine they’ll do anything if sitting.
Edit: I take that back. I can imagine a day’s business devoted to tributes to the departing speaker.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
My guess would be:
a) resuming is itself another dent to Bozo’s credibility b) whilst sitting there will be further chances to damage him further c) being in session enables them to react quickly to close off any cunning plans Bozo is fed by his little demon - in particular he can be VONC’d right away if, for example, he appears set on breaking the law.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
They can hold BoZo in contempt of Parliament if he ignores the Benn Act I believe.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
They can hold BoZo in contempt of Parliament if he ignores the Benn Act I believe.
They’d be able to do that anyway since it will be sitting by the time is is even possible to do that.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
I’m probably being dumb, but isn’t it up to the judges? Why should the remedy be decided by the claimant?
Because Lord Keen for the government argued that it would be up to the government. The judges are asking the claimant what he thinks it should be - he argues not the government. IIRC he said it would be up to the speakers.
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
Sky reporting Joanna Cherry seems very confident and that the discussions with Pannick about remedy a 'bad sign' for the government. I'm unsure. Justiciability may be the key factor here.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
My guess would be:
a) resuming is itself another dent to Bozo’s credibility b) whilst sitting there will be further chances to damage him further c) being in session enables them to react quickly to close off any cunning plans Bozo is fed by his little demon - in particular he can be VONC’d right away if, for example, he appears set on breaking the law.
so basically political fking about and they go down another notch in public opinion
There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
I think that the importance of the ruling will depend more on the constraints if any it places on future actions by Boris and future PMs, than on the exact date of parliament reconvening.
From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?
I feel I’m going to regret this...
Do I swap?
Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.
It's reassuring that pro mathematicians were, at first, equally perplexed and disbelieving
I’m still deeply suspicious. The experts said it wasn’t so, after all.
Well it all boils down to The Principle of Restriced Choice. When there are 3 doors and you choose one of them, then 2/3 of the time this will have a goat, so 2/3 of the time the host has one door with the car behind. He therefore can't open that door - his choice is restriced. He open the one he does because he has to. Its therefore twice as likely that the car is behind the hosts' other door than it was behind your original choice.
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
The map seems unbelievable. I can see them getting a bunch of Remainer Tory seats in the home counties but Berwick, north Norfolk and most the Westcountry? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
Indeed even with the benefits of decades of accumulated encumbancy and tactical voting they didn't come close to these numbers in either 2005 or 2010 despite polling similar figures.
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
So 28% of Remainers are currently NOT supporting either LD or Labour. That is 28% of 48% = 13.5%. SNP = 45, PC = 1%, Green 8.5% ? Some will presumably be Tories still. It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
I think that the importance of the ruling will depend more on the constraints if any it places on future actions by Boris and future PMs, than on the exact date of parliament reconvening.
A Prorogation Bill is likely to find its way into the Lib Dem manifesto, at the very least. Limits on frequency & duration, that sort of thing...
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
So 28% of Remainers are currently NOT supporting either LD or Labour. That is 28% of 48% = 13.5%. SNP = 45, PC = 1%, Green 8.5% ? Some will presumably be Tories still. It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
This may be getting a little out of perspective. Only in the mind of HYUFD is everything seen through the prism of Brexit. There will be a considerable number of lifelong tribal Tories and tribal Labour supporters who may disagree on their party's position on Brexit, but will still vote tribally nonetheless. It would be interesting to see how flakey or otherwise that position is. Will Labour leave voters vote Tory ? Not many I suspect. Will many younger otherwise Tory voting folk vote LD? Quite likely. The question will be how significant this is on polling day when it actually matters. I bottled voting LD at the last GE. I won't do so this time.
Police have said the fastest-growing threat of terrorist violence in the UK is from the far right, with seven of the 22 plots to cause mass casualties since March 2017 being driven by extreme rightwing ideology.
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
I think that the importance of the ruling will depend more on the constraints if any it places on future actions by Boris and future PMs, than on the exact date of parliament reconvening.
A Prorogation Bill is likely to find its way into the Lib Dem manifesto, at the very least. Limits on frequency & duration, that sort of thing...
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
I must be in a minority of one on here but I can't get excited about the SC case, and don't really care what it decides.
As for Bunter misleading the Queen, as I oppose having a monarchy full stop I can't much get excited about that either!
I’m interested in it from the constitutional perspective, rather than what it means for Brexit.
I don’t get out much....
I think it will restrict the ability of the government to prorogue.
The remedy I suggest is that Parliament votes to prorogue itself in future by a simple majority in the future. Similar to what we saw with the FTPA.
as ever the fkwits briniging the case cant imagine a situation where it will backfire on them as it inevitably will.
Clearly this is all part of Dom’s masterplan. I hear ya.
All of the twists and turns have been predicted by him. He is a modern day Nostradamus. Let us be as HYUFD would like us to be and praise his greatness and the genius of Boris
If Parliament does resume will Johnson have to appear in front of the Liaison Committee? The prorogue, entirely coincidentally of course and undoubtedly, meant the appearance that had been scheduled did not happen. Coincidentally.
Police have said the fastest-growing threat of terrorist violence in the UK is from the far right, with seven of the 22 plots to cause mass casualties since March 2017 being driven by extreme rightwing ideology.
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
Bunter? Are you talking about Boris? It damages him because he's forever the PM who illegally shut down parliament. That'll follow him on the campaign trail and long into his retirement.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
Bunter? Are you talking about Boris? It damages him because he's forever the PM who illegally shut down parliament. That'll follow him on the campaign trail and long into his retirement.
also unlikely
closing a Parliament with little credibility could be a plus
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
So 28% of Remainers are currently NOT supporting either LD or Labour. That is 28% of 48% = 13.5%. SNP = 45, PC = 1%, Green 8.5% ? Some will presumably be Tories still. It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
This may be getting a little out of perspective. Only in the mind of HYUFD is everything seen through the prism of Brexit. There will be a considerable number of lifelong tribal Tories and tribal Labour supporters who may disagree on their party's position on Brexit, but will still vote tribally nonetheless. It would be interesting to see how flakey or otherwise that position is. Will Labour leave voters vote Tory ? Not many I suspect. Will many younger otherwise Tory voting folk vote LD? Quite likely. The question will be how significant this is on polling day when it actually matters. I bottled voting LD at the last GE. I won't do so this time.
I live in Surbiton and a Labour supporter. Labour polls just above 10% in a good year. In 2015, I couldn't bring myself to vote LD. But in 2017 I did. In the Europeans, I voted Green. In the Mayoral, I vote Labour.
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
So 28% of Remainers are currently NOT supporting either LD or Labour. That is 28% of 48% = 13.5%. SNP = 45, PC = 1%, Green 8.5% ? Some will presumably be Tories still. It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
LibDems have a really interesting choice to make.
Do they want to replace Labour as the preeminent Left Centre Left force in UK?
If the answer is yes the first action they have to take is to gain the maximum vote share and seat tally.
This means it is in the interests of the LibDems for Labour, SNP, Plaid, Tories to suffer losses and obviously to gain as many as possible themselves.
After the next election if the seat tally is LibDem 80 Labour 160, Labour will remain the party of the Left by default. The LibDems have to reduce the gap between the parties to the greatest extent possible. If Labour are not in power they will then change leader and there is a strong possibility that a new Labour leader would oversee the decline of the LibDems to another period of irrelevance.
They need grow into a major party to take on and defeat Labour. A major party will not encourage voters or supporters to vote for the party they wish to replace (Labour) in the national Parliament, This in the long term should be more important to them than beating the Tory party at the next election. However they will try to gain ex Labour supporters to vote for them to replace Tory MPs whilst not lending voters to Labour for the same purpose.
If the LibDems decide that Revoke is the be all and end all, then tactical voting may well get them there between Labour and LibDems. It will leave Labour with more seats, maybe a C&S agreement, and in a perfect position to squash the resurgence out of the LibDems.
A real dilemma. Revoke or the second chance in 20 years (after 2010 was the other) to replace Labour for the long term. I don't think they can achieve both.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
If by 'Bunter' you mean Boris, it could damage him by making it clear that he is weak and powerless, buffeted around by Scottish lawyers and Remainiac obsessives (and by distinguished former PMs..). It may also give parliament much more time, and more incentive, to prepare alternative solutions if he tries to evade the provisions of the Benn Act.
On the other side, it will help Cummings with his framing of the narrative as Boris battling manfully against the Quislings and establishment.
I suspect that the latter effect will seem to be dominant in the short term, simply because of the noise from indignant No Deal fanatics, but the corrosive effect of Boris being seen to be in office but not in power will dominate in the medium term. Voters don't like helpless leaders, as Theresa May found.
Police have said the fastest-growing threat of terrorist violence in the UK is from the far right, with seven of the 22 plots to cause mass casualties since March 2017 being driven by extreme rightwing ideology.
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
I do think ISIS blew it for most budding Islamic terrorists. Roasting Muslim babies to death in steel boxes and beheading everything that moved wasn't really a good look for those fancying a cosy caliphate.
Piffle and tosh! We embraced Moorish dancing, like good, open-hearted, lace-loving men ought to! What is more harmonious than men waving their wiffle sticks for the delight of the crowds?
Police have said the fastest-growing threat of terrorist violence in the UK is from the far right, with seven of the 22 plots to cause mass casualties since March 2017 being driven by extreme rightwing ideology.
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
The one good point that Barclay does make is that any NI backstop needs to be acceptable to both the Unionists and Nationalists. If it was just the DUP being against it, it would be one thing, but UUPers like Trimble are too.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
Bunter? Are you talking about Boris? It damages him because he's forever the PM who illegally shut down parliament. That'll follow him on the campaign trail and long into his retirement.
Once Brexit is decided, one way or the other, Boris is done, only timescales will differ. Even if he gets us out with a deal there will be a rump of Tories who will hate him for the damage he's done or even risked doing to the party.
Can someone kindly explain to me, how parliament returning benefits the Remain cause, unless parliament is now resolved on some alternative course, like a referendum? I don't think they are, so why's this so important?
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Benefitting one side or the other isn't really the point. Perhaps it won't benefit either side. It's just, you know, protecting our democratic process.
Yet Remainers are wetting themselves at the possibility.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
Well, if the SC finds for the claimants it damages the Leaver PM. This is being treated, wrongly in my view, as a proxy for remain / leave. Kudos to the remainers who have argued against this case and the leavers who have argued for it, for they are seeing past the Brexit angle and into the heart of the matter.
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
How will it damage Bunter though? It's a genuine question – I am certainly not suggesting it won't – merely that I don't see the mechanism for it doing so (I am probably missing something big)
Bunter? Are you talking about Boris? It damages him because he's forever the PM who illegally shut down parliament. That'll follow him on the campaign trail and long into his retirement.
also unlikely
closing a Parliament with little credibility could be a plus
It'll follow every candidate for the Tories. Leaflets will basically write themselves. "Why vote for an MP who's happy to be shut out of parliament?" If you don't think this will do damage in the eyes of the moderate majority of the country, then you might be mistaking the politically entrenched geeks on here as normal. We aren't normal on here. This stuff will leave a stink around the Tories unless they nail it to Boris personally and eject him.
Police have said the fastest-growing threat of terrorist violence in the UK is from the far right, with seven of the 22 plots to cause mass casualties since March 2017 being driven by extreme rightwing ideology.
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
Piffle and tosh! We embraced Moorish dancing, like good, open-hearted, lace-loving men ought to! What is more harmonious than men waving their wiffle sticks for the delight of the crowds?
Is there anything in this world worse than Morris Dancing?
Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool
I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP
Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.
The map seems unbelievable. I can see them getting a bunch of Remainer Tory seats in the home counties but Berwick, north Norfolk and most the Westcountry? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
Indeed even with the benefits of decades of accumulated encumbancy and tactical voting they didn't come close to these numbers in either 2005 or 2010 despite polling similar figures.
In FPTP your seats are dependent not on your share of the vote, but how it compares to that of other parties.
With the Brexit Party, the Greens and the Nationalists taking more votes from the big two parties the winning post for the Lib Dems is at a lower level.
Also, if the Lib Dems are now principally a repository for pro-Remain votes then their vote distribution may be more optimal than in 2010, when there was more of an element of being a diffuse "not either of those two" protest vote.
That's not to say that I vouch for their model, but there are differences compared to 2010.
Piffle and tosh! We embraced Moorish dancing, like good, open-hearted, lace-loving men ought to! What is more harmonious than men waving their wiffle sticks for the delight of the crowds?
Is there anything in this world worse than Morris Dancing?
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
So 28% of Remainers are currently NOT supporting either LD or Labour. That is 28% of 48% = 13.5%. SNP = 45, PC = 1%, Green 8.5% ? Some will presumably be Tories still. It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
LibDems have a really interesting choice to make.
Do they want to replace Labour as the preeminent Left Centre Left force in UK?
If the answer is yes the first action they have to take is to gain the maximum vote share and seat tally.
This means it is in the interests of the LibDems for Labour, SNP, Plaid, Tories to suffer losses and obviously to gain as many as possible themselves.
After the next election if the seat tally is LibDem 80 Labour 160, Labour will remain the party of the Left by default. The LibDems have to reduce the gap between the parties to the greatest extent possible. If Labour are not in power they will then change leader and there is a strong possibility that a new Labour leader would oversee the decline of the LibDems to another period of irrelevance.
They need grow into a major party to take on and defeat Labour. A major party will not encourage voters or supporters to vote for the party they wish to replace (Labour) in the national Parliament, This in the long term should be more important to them than beating the Tory party at the next election. However they will try to gain ex Labour supporters to vote for them to replace Tory MPs whilst not lending voters to Labour for the same purpose.
If the LibDems decide that Revoke is the be all and end all, then tactical voting may well get them there between Labour and LibDems. It will leave Labour with more seats, maybe a C&S agreement, and in a perfect position to squash the resurgence out of the LibDems.
A real dilemma. Revoke or the second chance in 20 years (after 2010 was the other) to replace Labour for the long term. I don't think they can achieve both.
They're not centre-left. Under Swinson or Davey, they're a Centre Party and so are roughly as close to centre-right Tories such as Grieve or Clarke as to centre-left SDP-type Labour MPs like Watson or Cooper.
Their USP used to be that they believed in civil liberties. Thatcher and Blair didn't appear to believe in them and in particular Blair wanted to abolish jury trial.
Comments
I would far rather have a panel interviewing each party leader individually - you are far more likely to expose flaws that way than in the back and forth of 'debates' - which are just an excuse to trot out soundbites and throw abuse.
Proper detailed interviews with forensic questions would be far more use
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/must_see/49728391/the-surprising-truth-about-uk-energy-use
It just doesn’t look like a sensible local government boundary to me. Why would you not include the town and make it smaller?
And there's nothing I can do to keep
From crying when he calls your name
The Norway option...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/please-let-me-finish-the-norwegian-political-tv-debate-where-politeness-wins-9t6nqs0xt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_djTy3G0pg
It's reassuring that pro mathematicians were, at first, equally perplexed and disbelieving
"Playing with Fire"
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/brexit-unternehmen-103.html
It says something about the human condition.
I'm opting for Parliament to be sitting by next Thursday/Friday.
Flavible is attempting to factor in demographic, EU referendum, EU election and local election results into its predictions. It is therefore identifying those seats where the LibDems are likely to overperform the national swing (the examples above seem very credible to me).
Doubtless its assumptions are likely to be off but assuming an even swing next time will certainly be off.
Not good at all to hear that Opinium have been push-polling like this.
I wonder if that's all ex-Greens, or if there are some ex-Conservative Remainers in there too.
As well as being reliable, consistent, competent and experienced in government.
What can you say in favour of Corbyn`s Labour Party?
In words, isn’t it simply that the box you have chosen has a 1 in 1000 chance of being right - and this probability cannot be changed by the host opening all the other empty boxes. Therefore the remaining unopened box accounts for the remaining 999 chances.
It's hot and I can't work it out.
Edit: I take that back. I can imagine a day’s business devoted to tributes to the departing speaker.
a) resuming is itself another dent to Bozo’s credibility
b) whilst sitting there will be further chances to damage him further
c) being in session enables them to react quickly to close off any cunning plans Bozo is fed by his little demon - in particular he can be VONC’d right away if, for example, he appears set on breaking the law.
This feels, to me, like quite a minor skirmish in a war currently being fought elsewhere.
OK, ta-ra.
This may be foundation of the only remaining positive legacy for a Mr D Cameron (former PM)
As for Bunter misleading the Queen, as I oppose having a monarchy full stop I can't much get excited about that either!
What are your legal credentials so we can compare?
I don’t get out much....
It is going to be a great tactical tsunami. There will be websites telling Remainers who to back in which constituency.
The remedy I suggest is that Parliament votes to prorogue itself by a simple majority in the future. Similar to what we saw with the FTPA.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1174624712288284672
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7467397/Morris-Dancers-face-banned-performing-blackface-shocked-rambler-28-complained.html
They said referrals to anti-radicalisation programmes of those feared to be at risk of committing far-right terrorist acts had doubled between 2016 and 2018, and were expected to rise further.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/19/fastest-growing-uk-terrorist-threat-is-from-far-right-say-police
As a remainer who would love to see this shambles of a government further damaged, I've been trying to keep my comments about the case to a minimum, because I'd way off being objective or even knowledgeable about this.
It damages him because he's forever the PM who illegally shut down parliament. That'll follow him on the campaign trail and long into his retirement.
closing a Parliament with little credibility could be a plus
Do they want to replace Labour as the preeminent Left Centre Left force in UK?
If the answer is yes the first action they have to take is to gain the maximum vote share and seat tally.
This means it is in the interests of the LibDems for Labour, SNP, Plaid, Tories to suffer losses and obviously to gain as many as possible themselves.
After the next election if the seat tally is LibDem 80 Labour 160, Labour will remain the party of the Left by default. The LibDems have to reduce the gap between the parties to the greatest extent possible. If Labour are not in power they will then change leader and there is a strong possibility that a new Labour leader would oversee the decline of the LibDems to another period of irrelevance.
They need grow into a major party to take on and defeat Labour. A major party will not encourage voters or supporters to vote for the party they wish to replace (Labour) in the national Parliament, This in the long term should be more important to them than beating the Tory party at the next election. However they will try to gain ex Labour supporters to vote for them to replace Tory MPs whilst not lending voters to Labour for the same purpose.
If the LibDems decide that Revoke is the be all and end all, then tactical voting may well get them there between Labour and LibDems. It will leave Labour with more seats, maybe a C&S agreement, and in a perfect position to squash the resurgence out of the LibDems.
A real dilemma. Revoke or the second chance in 20 years (after 2010 was the other) to replace Labour for the long term. I don't think they can achieve both.
On the other side, it will help Cummings with his framing of the narrative as Boris battling manfully against the Quislings and establishment.
I suspect that the latter effect will seem to be dominant in the short term, simply because of the noise from indignant No Deal fanatics, but the corrosive effect of Boris being seen to be in office but not in power will dominate in the medium term. Voters don't like helpless leaders, as Theresa May found.
I do think ISIS blew it for most budding Islamic terrorists. Roasting Muslim babies to death in steel boxes and beheading everything that moved wasn't really a good look for those fancying a cosy caliphate.
Piffle and tosh! We embraced Moorish dancing, like good, open-hearted, lace-loving men ought to! What is more harmonious than men waving their wiffle sticks for the delight of the crowds?
If jihadism has stabilised, and far right has increased, what form has gone down?
If you don't think this will do damage in the eyes of the moderate majority of the country, then you might be mistaking the politically entrenched geeks on here as normal. We aren't normal on here. This stuff will leave a stink around the Tories unless they nail it to Boris personally and eject him.
it could have been a bunch of Canadian PMs on a night out.
With the Brexit Party, the Greens and the Nationalists taking more votes from the big two parties the winning post for the Lib Dems is at a lower level.
Also, if the Lib Dems are now principally a repository for pro-Remain votes then their vote distribution may be more optimal than in 2010, when there was more of an element of being a diffuse "not either of those two" protest vote.
That's not to say that I vouch for their model, but there are differences compared to 2010.
Their USP used to be that they believed in civil liberties. Thatcher and Blair didn't appear to believe in them and in particular Blair wanted to abolish jury trial.