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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,551

    Andrew said:
    Wonder which four countries?

    Would guess Ireland as one.
    I'd eat my hat if that were the case. This is the national views as expressed by the foreign ministers. Ireland's politicians are not with the programme. The four must be something like Malta, Poland, Holland, Portugal.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    Omnium said:

    Andrew said:
    Wonder which four countries?

    Would guess Ireland as one.
    I'd eat my hat if that were the case. This is the national views as expressed by the foreign ministers. Ireland's politicians are not with the programme. The four must be something like Malta, Poland, Holland, Portugal.
    Germany. More “please don’t leave us with the French” than “we love you”. But I’d think Germany.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    It could be inconvenient for EU if, against all expectations , no deal was a successful and prosperous result...
  • Omnium said:

    Andrew said:
    Wonder which four countries?

    Would guess Ireland as one.
    I'd eat my hat if that were the case. This is the national views as expressed by the foreign ministers. Ireland's politicians are not with the programme. The four must be something like Malta, Poland, Holland, Portugal.
    I think the economic effect for Ireland, and it's politicians, is very important. That would lead them to prefer us in.

    I thought maybe Malta and Poland too, but with the Polish Ambassador seeing it as an opportunity to encourage young Poles to return home I'm now not so sure, and Malta is based only on their Commonwealth status.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Would guess Ireland as one.

    Maybe - although historical reasons …….

    Germany might have be quite happy to have us as a counterweight to French influence, but we've been pissing around so much they probably just want rid of us now.

    Guessing maybe some Eastern Europeans, maybe Baltics for security reasons.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Omnium said:

    Andrew said:
    Wonder which four countries?

    Would guess Ireland as one.
    I'd eat my hat if that were the case. This is the national views as expressed by the foreign ministers. Ireland's politicians are not with the programme. The four must be something like Malta, Poland, Holland, Portugal.
    It’s cobblers who is he and what does he know
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Not sure if that will get through parliament, even against no deal. Has anyone crunched the numbers?
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    Well then Johnson is branded a traitor by farage and crashes and burns
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,795
    edited September 2019
    philiph said:

    OllyT said:

    alex. said:

    TGOHF said:
    If there DOES happen to be a deal and Johnson DOES manage to get it through Parliament, the Lib Dems in particular are going to feel a bit annoyed that they didn’t press for an election in October.

    I do think there are probably many on the Remain side who have overestimated the extent to which EU leaders (as opposed to, say, the likes of the Belgian MEP whose name temporarily escapes me) are supportive of their general approach, and would far rather they had just voted for the deal months ago...
    Brexit isn't the only driver in increased LD support. Many see both the main parties as having been taken over by hardline unrepresentative groups. Sorting out Bexit doesn't actually alter that. Swinson's main USP is that she is not Corbyn and she is not Bozo.
    If Junker and Boris cobble a deal together how will that impact on BJ, JC and JS in trend of your last sentence?
    Any electoral gain that Bozo would get from a deal would probably be more than offset by losses to a resurgent BXP because it seems pretty clear to me that any deal pushed through by Oct 31 will be May's deal + a fig leaf. Farage will inevitably scream blue murder.

    I doubt it would affect Corbyn much either way and I think Swinson would dip slightly. After the dust has settled though the LD should be able to make to make gradual gains at the expense of the other 2 unless either of them moves fairly significantly back towards the centre and I don't see that happening this side of a GE. After that it's anybody's guess.
  • I very much would like Boris to get a deal and for the UK to be told by the EU its this deal, no deal or revoke and we await the verdict from Parliament.

    It was hubristic of Benn and all his supporters to just assume the UK would meekly be granted an extension as if the EU27 have no say in the matter. If they want to avoid no deal then they can ratify the deal. Or they can accept no deal. Or they can vote to revoke. No need to extend again - especially when Labour's policy now is "let us extend so we can renegotiate a deal that we will not ratify and we will campaign against what we negotiate"

    Seriously f##k off and make a choice. No extension.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,551
    edited September 2019

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so (if elected) wouldn't you RT?
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    Well then Johnson is branded a traitor by farage and crashes and burns
    How's he a traitor if he gets Brexit through?

    If its no deal, exit with a deal or revoke - and we don't revoke then Boris will have achieved his ambition of taking us out.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,215
    ab195 said:


    How does the politics play in Canada? Are Liberal voters really going to say “blimey he was a racist all along, I’ll vote Tory”?

    I know you can’t draw too many parallels here but in Britain your think those offended would also be those least likely to vote Tory. Not sure how the NDP dimensions plays in over there though.

    The polls conflict - the daily rolling Nanos Research poll is widening the Conservative lead while the rolling Mainstreet Research poll is widening the Liberal lead. Each shows one party 2.8% ahead of the other. NDP around 11% and Greens 9%.

    Nanos has Con 37.8%, Lib 35.0% while Mainstreet has Lib 37.2%, Con 34.4%.

    You pay your dollar, you take your choice.

    Meanwhile, Austria votes on the 27th and the polls are fairly static. Kurz's OVP has 34%, the SPD 22-23%, the FPO 20%, the Greens 12-13% and NEOS 8-9%.



  • Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    An LD campaign to rejoin would be better since we've already voted to leave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951



    What if the party leadership changed? What if the manifesto said "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and allies across Europe" but the new party leader wanted to crash out and engage in zero (or negative) sum parlour games with our neighbours instead?

    Why are the MPs who want to stand by the manifesto the "liars" instead of blaming the leadership who want to crash out without a mandate?

    Clearly MPs have the right to leave their parties in such scenarios.

    Let us take Brexit out of the equation.

    In the Welsh Assembly, my AM defected from his party in 2016. I voted for him because I wanted to vote for the party he then represented.

    The AM refused to trigger a by-election.

    I think if you change your party label, it is only fair & honest to resign and re-fight.

    In fact, it is almost certainly in the interests of many of these defectors to fight a by-election, as they will have a better chance of holding in the General Election if they first won the easier by-election.

    I expect 90 per cent of the defectors to lose at a General Election.
    I think there are two issues:

    1. You can't include people losing the whip. Otherwise, the whips have an insane amount of power.

    2. What if there is a genuine schism in a party, where it is cleaved into two large chunks? Which half is forced into by-elections?

    Maybe we should do entirely differently and instead get rid of parties?
  • stodge said:

    ab195 said:


    How does the politics play in Canada? Are Liberal voters really going to say “blimey he was a racist all along, I’ll vote Tory”?

    I know you can’t draw too many parallels here but in Britain your think those offended would also be those least likely to vote Tory. Not sure how the NDP dimensions plays in over there though.

    The polls conflict - the daily rolling Nanos Research poll is widening the Conservative lead while the rolling Mainstreet Research poll is widening the Liberal lead. Each shows one party 2.8% ahead of the other. NDP around 11% and Greens 9%.

    Nanos has Con 37.8%, Lib 35.0% while Mainstreet has Lib 37.2%, Con 34.4%.

    You pay your dollar, you take your choice.

    Meanwhile, Austria votes on the 27th and the polls are fairly static. Kurz's OVP has 34%, the SPD 22-23%, the FPO 20%, the Greens 12-13% and NEOS 8-9%.



    Of course like the UK it is First Past the Post and so Province [State] polls and constituencies can matter more than nationwide polls.

    I have family in Alberta and they hate Trudeau, but then Alberta is hardly a province that Trudeau is hoping to win!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    Well then Johnson is branded a traitor by farage and crashes and burns
    Boris getting a deal Top Trumps a foam-flecked Farage with the public. They just want it done.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    stodge said:

    ab195 said:


    How does the politics play in Canada? Are Liberal voters really going to say “blimey he was a racist all along, I’ll vote Tory”?

    I know you can’t draw too many parallels here but in Britain your think those offended would also be those least likely to vote Tory. Not sure how the NDP dimensions plays in over there though.

    The polls conflict - the daily rolling Nanos Research poll is widening the Conservative lead while the rolling Mainstreet Research poll is widening the Liberal lead. Each shows one party 2.8% ahead of the other. NDP around 11% and Greens 9%.

    Nanos has Con 37.8%, Lib 35.0% while Mainstreet has Lib 37.2%, Con 34.4%.

    You pay your dollar, you take your choice.

    Meanwhile, Austria votes on the 27th and the polls are fairly static. Kurz's OVP has 34%, the SPD 22-23%, the FPO 20%, the Greens 12-13% and NEOS 8-9%.



    Thanks. Do you have a sense of the “feel” in Canada? Until yesterday I’d got the sense he was heading for another term, but it’s so hard when you don’t know which bits of another country’s media are the ones to read.
  • Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    rcs1000 said:



    What if the party leadership changed? What if the manifesto said "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and allies across Europe" but the new party leader wanted to crash out and engage in zero (or negative) sum parlour games with our neighbours instead?

    Why are the MPs who want to stand by the manifesto the "liars" instead of blaming the leadership who want to crash out without a mandate?

    Clearly MPs have the right to leave their parties in such scenarios.

    Let us take Brexit out of the equation.

    In the Welsh Assembly, my AM defected from his party in 2016. I voted for him because I wanted to vote for the party he then represented.

    The AM refused to trigger a by-election.

    I think if you change your party label, it is only fair & honest to resign and re-fight.

    In fact, it is almost certainly in the interests of many of these defectors to fight a by-election, as they will have a better chance of holding in the General Election if they first won the easier by-election.

    I expect 90 per cent of the defectors to lose at a General Election.
    I think there are two issues:

    1. You can't include people losing the whip. Otherwise, the whips have an insane amount of power.

    2. What if there is a genuine schism in a party, where it is cleaved into two large chunks? Which half is forced into by-elections?

    Maybe we should do entirely differently and instead get rid of parties?
    Parties are a problem.

    Unlike my countrymen I like a rebellious and split Party. It does the members stand up for what they believe and will vote against the party.

    The conservatives win that one, Labour make noises but are more afraid to defy the whip, (exception awarded to J Corbyn) and lib Dems somehow in between .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Will the pesky MPs actually vote for it through?
    I very much doubt it. They are enjoying playing in the sandbox too much to actually care about the reality of their posturing.
    The only way I can see it getting through is if the EU make it clear there will be no further extensions.

    Its Boris's Deal or No Deal. Otherwise MPs will just carry on pissing about.
    It only needs one EU country to take that position - we have had enough, just fucking decide - and that becomes the EU position. Surely Boris must have got at least ONE of them to that point by now?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    Well then Johnson is branded a traitor by farage and crashes and burns
    How's he a traitor if he gets Brexit through?

    If its no deal, exit with a deal or revoke - and we don't revoke then Boris will have achieved his ambition of taking us out.
    Because a deal is not clean apparently. At the end of the day I really haven’t got a clue what you leavers are after there was no problem that needed solving, life was fine the sovereignty issues were completely irrelevant to most people, nothing is solved by leaving you leavers have just wasted four years when real problems could have been solved. If our government had used the breaks on immigration that were available and also invested in infrastructure in line with the growing population there wouldn’t be a problem.
    I’ll actually benefit from a deal the pound will go up to 1.25 and then slowly decline over the following years which will see me out but the reality is the future of the U.K. is in Europe and nowhere else.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,215



    Of course like the UK it is First Past the Post and so Province [State] polls and constituencies can matter more than nationwide polls.

    I have family in Alberta and they hate Trudeau, but then Alberta is hardly a province that Trudeau is hoping to win!

    Yes it's hugely frustrating they don't publish regular provincial polls. Given 199 of the 338 ridings (constituencies) are in Ontario and Quebec you can see the significance of those areas.

    The Conservatives will sweep Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62) while the Liberals will win Atlantic Canada (35)- that's inevitable.

    The other swing area are the 42 ridings in British Columbia. In 2015, the Liberals won 17, the NDP 14 and the Conservatives 10. I expect a much stronger Conservative performance.
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    Well then Johnson is branded a traitor by farage and crashes and burns
    Have I ever given the impression I care one iota for Johnson? I said before he was elected he was the worst of the candidates and seeing him brought low would be a positive thing so long as it didn't threaten Brexit
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,551

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.
    So I'm suggesting that should there be a LD majority based on a manifesto to revoke.

    For me that's sufficient to be bigger than the referendum. And not artificially so.

    Revoke in other circumstances is horrible as you describe.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 28,127
    edited September 2019
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.
    So I'm suggesting that should there be a LD majority based on a manifesto to revoke.

    For me that's sufficient to be bigger than the referendum. And not artificially so.

    Revoke in other circumstances is horrible as you describe.
    Even there I would suggest that you have exactly the same issues. A very large minority would not accept the result and would have been shown by the example of the Remoaners that refusing to accept the result can win the day in the end. As a result all of the things I mentioned still come to pass.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077
    The Cameron years on BBC1 now
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,215
    ab195 said:



    Thanks. Do you have a sense of the “feel” in Canada? Until yesterday I’d got the sense he was heading for another term, but it’s so hard when you don’t know which bits of another country’s media are the ones to read.

    It's not been the best of starts for Trudeau but the election is over a month away (on the 21st October) so this was all be forgotten about long before that time.

    The leadership polls have been good for Trudeau putting him well ahead of the Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer.

    My gut feeling at this very early stage is to state the obvious - Trudeau is much more likely to lose a majority than Scheer is to win a majority. I can see the Liberals just being largest party by doing well enough in Ontario and Quebec and seeing losses to the Conservatives balanced by gains from the NDP.

    Both BQ and the Greens should do better than last time and it's a question of whether Trudeau can court enough support from smaller parties to remain PM.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:



    Of course like the UK it is First Past the Post and so Province [State] polls and constituencies can matter more than nationwide polls.

    I have family in Alberta and they hate Trudeau, but then Alberta is hardly a province that Trudeau is hoping to win!

    Yes it's hugely frustrating they don't publish regular provincial polls. Given 199 of the 338 ridings (constituencies) are in Ontario and Quebec you can see the significance of those areas.

    The Conservatives will sweep Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62) while the Liberals will win Atlantic Canada (35)- that's inevitable.

    The other swing area are the 42 ridings in British Columbia. In 2015, the Liberals won 17, the NDP 14 and the Conservatives 10. I expect a much stronger Conservative performance.
    Most likely Trudeau loses his majority but stays PM due to winning enough Ontario and Quebec seats even if the Conservatives sweep the Praries.

    I doubt today's story makes much difference, Conservative voters who hated Trudeau will still hate Trudeau, Liberal voters will accept his apology on the whole. At most it might see a slight shift from Liberal to NDP or Green from ethnic minority voters and left liberals but not much more than that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077

    stodge said:

    ab195 said:


    How does the politics play in Canada? Are Liberal voters really going to say “blimey he was a racist all along, I’ll vote Tory”?

    I know you can’t draw too many parallels here but in Britain your think those offended would also be those least likely to vote Tory. Not sure how the NDP dimensions plays in over there though.

    The polls conflict - the daily rolling Nanos Research poll is widening the Conservative lead while the rolling Mainstreet Research poll is widening the Liberal lead. Each shows one party 2.8% ahead of the other. NDP around 11% and Greens 9%.

    Nanos has Con 37.8%, Lib 35.0% while Mainstreet has Lib 37.2%, Con 34.4%.

    You pay your dollar, you take your choice.

    Meanwhile, Austria votes on the 27th and the polls are fairly static. Kurz's OVP has 34%, the SPD 22-23%, the FPO 20%, the Greens 12-13% and NEOS 8-9%.



    Of course like the UK it is First Past the Post and so Province [State] polls and constituencies can matter more than nationwide polls.

    I have family in Alberta and they hate Trudeau, but then Alberta is hardly a province that Trudeau is hoping to win!
    Alberta would be a Trump state if it was in the US, it is very right-wing
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,551

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.
    So I'm suggesting that should there be a LD majority based on a manifesto to revoke.

    For me that's sufficient to be bigger than the referendum. And not artificially so.

    Revoke in other circumstances is horrible as you describe.
    Even there I would suggest that you have exactly the same issues. A very large minority would not accept the result and would have been shown by the example of the Remoaners that refusing to accept the result can win the day in the end. As a result all of the things I mentioned still come to pass.
    Well yes but I'm asking the question of you RT. If the LDs were elected on their Brexit pledge then does it amount to sufficient grounds to override the referendum?

    I think it does. I hate the fact that I'm saying that 30% (say) of the electorate can override 52% of the people. I am still saying it.
  • Cameron reminding everyone that his veto was just ignored by the EU. A timely reminder that nothing stops the EU project and that we never had any significant influence inside it. Perfect timing on his and the BBC's part.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    stodge said:

    ab195 said:



    Thanks. Do you have a sense of the “feel” in Canada? Until yesterday I’d got the sense he was heading for another term, but it’s so hard when you don’t know which bits of another country’s media are the ones to read.

    It's not been the best of starts for Trudeau but the election is over a month away (on the 21st October) so this was all be forgotten about long before that time.

    The leadership polls have been good for Trudeau putting him well ahead of the Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer.

    My gut feeling at this very early stage is to state the obvious - Trudeau is much more likely to lose a majority than Scheer is to win a majority. I can see the Liberals just being largest party by doing well enough in Ontario and Quebec and seeing losses to the Conservatives balanced by gains from the NDP.

    Both BQ and the Greens should do better than last time and it's a question of whether Trudeau can court enough support from smaller parties to remain PM.

    Thanks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077
    Heseltine blames austerity for Brexit on BBC1
  • HYUFD said:

    Heseltine blames austerity for Brexit on BBC1

    He also, laughably, said politicians not doing what they said they'd do destroys trust in politics. Quite so Mr Heseltine.
  • HYUFD said:

    Heseltine blames austerity for Brexit on BBC1

    There is a lot in that view. It fits better with the facts than immigration.
  • HYUFD said:

    Heseltine blames austerity for Brexit on BBC1

    Well, you voted Remain in 2016
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077

    HYUFD said:

    Heseltine blames austerity for Brexit on BBC1

    There is a lot in that view. It fits better with the facts than immigration.
    It was really a combination of both and regaining sovereignty
  • Don't Silence Our MPs!
    New Thread

  • Now Cameron sticking it to the EU on its "hopeless" response to the migrant crisis.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,215


    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.

    There has always been the option for a political party to put in its position a commitment to withdraw from the EU.

    Labour had such an option in 1983.

    The passing of the buck from parties to the electorate via referenda isn't some wonderful granting of additional democracy but a way of masking internal divisions within parties and indeed exporting such divisions into the wider body politic.

    There were and have been plenty of warnings about the divisive effect of referenda but that didn't stop the Conservatives hoping the public would resolve their own internal divisions for them.

    Even UKIP couldn't front up and say that if they won a majority the UK would leave the EU - they had to sugarcoat it by saying there would be a referendum because they knew at the time the constituency for a vote was larger than the constituency which would vote to leave.

    The other aspect and I'll freely admit it, is after the antics of Clegg in 2010 there is an understandable scepticism among the electorate that if a Party puts something in the manifesto it's doing so just to get votes and has no intention, if it wins, of implementing it.

    I get that and it's a big part of the credibility gap which now exists. However, that doesn't mean MPs shouldn't use their "fair and impartial judgement" in terms of the governance of the country. It's possible they see leaving without an agreed WA as unwise. They may also regard any Boris WA as unwise as well but the consequences of rejecting the WA once again may be much starker than was the case earlier in the year.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    No we have to extend if no deal by 19/10 then we can see where we get to it is a Tory brexit designed to save the Tory party and nothing else. If the Conservative party and their chums in the DUP want a deal they have to vote for it.

    You aren't listening. All but four members want us to fuck off. Now. There will be no more extensions.

    Whatever deal we have after the EU gathering in mid-October is it. That - or no deal. Which is it, MPs? Given you have invested 98.7% of your political capital in telling us that No Deal = The End of Days, I think we can guess that they will fold and accept the deal.

    The Boris strategy is playing out beautifully.....
    Quite simple we revoke problem solved
    Hardly. More Remainer fantasies
    You'd be good with a LD campaign to revoke and doing so wouldn't you RT?
    I genuinely don't understand that question.

    Revoke means a collapse in democracy. It means a massive increase in support for extremists and years of political and social instability. It would make our relationship with the EU far worse than it has ever been and they would live in constant fear that we are one election away from the most hostile of Brexits.

    Revoke is a recipe for complete disaster.
    So I'm suggesting that should there be a LD majority based on a manifesto to revoke.

    For me that's sufficient to be bigger than the referendum. And not artificially so.

    Revoke in other circumstances is horrible as you describe.
    Even there I would suggest that you have exactly the same issues. A very large minority would not accept the result and would have been shown by the example of the Remoaners that refusing to accept the result can win the day in the end. As a result all of the things I mentioned still come to pass.
    Well yes but I'm asking the question of you RT. If the LDs were elected on their Brexit pledge then does it amount to sufficient grounds to override the referendum?

    I think it does. I hate the fact that I'm saying that 30% (say) of the electorate can override 52% of the people. I am still saying it.
    For me no. Democracy is about giving the people a choice and then acting on their decision. Waiting a couple of years, claiming it is all too difficult and then having another vote does not absolve the politicians of their responsibilities to enact the first result.

    If we leave and they then want to campaign to rejoin that is another mater. But they need to obey the original instruction first.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,215



    For me no. Democracy is about giving the people a choice and then acting on their decision. Waiting a couple of years, claiming it is all too difficult and then having another vote does not absolve the politicians of their responsibilities to enact the first result.

    If we leave and they then want to campaign to rejoin that is another mater. But they need to obey the original instruction first.

    Let me ask then - the referendum took place in 2016. We were not obliged to have a GE until 2020 which would have provided ample time for the A50 process to be conducted and enacted.

    The rules stated we could only leave via the A50 process which took 24 months so even if A50 had been triggered on 24/6/16 we couldn't have left before 24/6/18.

    Yet Parliament chose, as was its right under the FTPA, to hold a GE in 2017. That election took place before we could have left the EU - had a Party stated in its manifesto that it wanted to cancel A50 and had that Party won a majority, the A50 process would have been stopped before it could have been completed.

    Would that have been democratic?
  • stodge said:



    For me no. Democracy is about giving the people a choice and then acting on their decision. Waiting a couple of years, claiming it is all too difficult and then having another vote does not absolve the politicians of their responsibilities to enact the first result.

    If we leave and they then want to campaign to rejoin that is another mater. But they need to obey the original instruction first.

    Let me ask then - the referendum took place in 2016. We were not obliged to have a GE until 2020 which would have provided ample time for the A50 process to be conducted and enacted.

    The rules stated we could only leave via the A50 process which took 24 months so even if A50 had been triggered on 24/6/16 we couldn't have left before 24/6/18.

    Yet Parliament chose, as was its right under the FTPA, to hold a GE in 2017. That election took place before we could have left the EU - had a Party stated in its manifesto that it wanted to cancel A50 and had that Party won a majority, the A50 process would have been stopped before it could have been completed.

    Would that have been democratic?
    No
This discussion has been closed.