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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI has the LDs at a post-GE2010 high with a big increase in awareness of Joe Swinson if not her net satisfaction figures

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Pro_Rata

First, but unable to call a GE, dammit.

This thread seems rather empty. Did I prorogue it by mistake?

Whistles...

surbiton19

Second, just like a zombie government.

Drutt

Third, like the rate of advocacy by Lavery QC today.

SirNorfolkPassmore

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

Byronic

Good time for a new thread. TSE, bless him, was just digging his hole deeper.

ON topic, GO JO! REPLACE THE EVIL MARXISTS

And now I must do some work. Later.

isam

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

CarlottaVance

Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

Philip_Thompson

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1174673501757853696

CarlottaVance

Not a fan of O’Neill:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174674406456647680?s=20

RobD

isam said:

I think I've spotted a trend in the headers... #WelcomeBackOGH

Well it is the LD conference season.

Theuniondivvie

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

Amazing what the addition/omission of a vowel can do. Joe Swinson has a certain kitchen-sinky, 1950s feel, possibly played by Albert Finney in the film.

Anabobazina

isam said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.

GIN1138

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Yep. Dreadful optics for Jezza.

CarlottaVance

Remainers Leaving Labour:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1174652226276679681?s=20

Tissue_Price

isam said:

I think I've spotted a trend in the headers... #WelcomeBackOGH

The really good news is that we can go back to reporting polls in the "+/- from previous poll" format.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Tissue_Price

GIN1138 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Yep. Dreadful optics for Jezza.

Once Labour have agreed a clear policy at conference the LD surge will surely go into reverse.

What's that you say? Oh.

TGOHF

Stuff happening

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

El_Capitano

Shame Kirsten Johnson has stood down as the LD candidate in North Devon. Not at all surprising - she screwed up royally in that interview - but she was an excellent councillor in Oxfordshire and would have made a good MP.

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<

Anabobazina said:

isam said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Byronic

One more go at this.

Well done David. FFS. Grrrrr


"Sturgeon signals Queen should stay out of future Scotland vote

"First minister implies call for help should be refused after Cameron sought intervention"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/nicola-sturgeon-signals-queen-should-stay-out-future-scotland-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

Too early to tell. Labour's gamble was not that they benefit now but that they'd benefit on 1 November (or at least that Johnson would lose out).

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.

SirNorfolkPassmore

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

AlastairMeeks

TGOHF said:

Stuff happening

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.

Byronic

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.

Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.

Anabobazina

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<

Anabobazina said:

isam said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Joe is

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<

Anabobazina said:

isam said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Joe is usually short for Joseph, ergo the masculine form.

Jo for Joanne (in Swinson’s Case), Joanna or Josephine.

TheValiant

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Joseph.

I know a female work colleague who uses Joe. She's Joanne.

TGOHF

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

Stuff happening

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.

Not a chance - Boris is not going anywhere regardless of what the SC says.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

The shift remains an entirely voluntary strategic mistake, and a damned silly one at that.

El_Capitano

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

+1. I enjoyed it. It does deposit you in the arse end of Belfast at some ungodly hour though (choice of Protestant/Catholic "ungodly" is left up to the traveller).

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

Alanbrooke

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

If youre in to vomit surfing, I cant think of much better

Nigel_Foremain

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Byronic

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.

I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.

Nigel_Foremain

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

Stuff happening

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1174675577384710144?s=21

There has to be a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will no longer be Prime Minister by then. If he loses in the Supreme Court, that makes a much better pretext for dumping him than Brexit.

Who would replace him though?

Anabobazina

TheValiant said:

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Joseph.

I know a female work colleague who uses Joe. She's Joanne.

https://youtu.be/d6r6nhBcIbA

Gabs2

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Nigel_Foremain

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.

Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

Agreed. I hate Ryanair with a passion though

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.

I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.

ooh Posh. You can do their water tasting course where they charge you a couple of limbs to taste water from around the world.

theakes

Evenig Standard and Britain Elects have the IPSOS poll at Con 33 (-1, Labour 24 no change, Lib Dem 23 ( +3), as there could well be high turn out these figures may be more relevant. Number of local by elections tonight which on paper the Lib Dems could take, be interesting tonight.

Philip_Thompson

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

Too early to tell. Labour's gamble was not that they benefit now but that they'd benefit on 1 November (or at least that Johnson would lose out).

Which is a hand I thought then and now that they misplayed. By being so overtly compulsive in forcing an extension and rejecting an election they made it clear they were the reason we're still in on 1 November, whereas in March PM May voted voluntarily on a free vote to request an extension. May wanted to remain in March, Johnson wanted to leave then and leave still in October. The betrayal in March was that remain-voting PM May chose to remain over leave.

Had Corbyn and co been less restrictive and Johnson had voluntarily sought an extension because he couldn't get his deal with and didn't genuinely want no deal, then I think Johnson's support would have fractured to the BXP like May's did.

Gabs2

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

By pointing out he did everything he possibly could, blaming the undemocratic Remainers and arguing for a united Brexit majority to defeat them once and for all.

Dura_Ace

Byronic said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.

Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Byronic

Nigel_Foremain said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

The overnight ferry from Birkenhead can be interesting.

Will it involve me being shackled to an oarsman?

Because it isn't a deal breaker when the alternative is Ryanair and Easyjet.

Easyjet are great. Just pay a bit extra for Easyjet Plus and Speedy Boarding. Front row seats, fast track security, first dibs on the booze, loads of luggage space.

I use it all the time and it's arguably better than BA Biz class for short haul, and about a quarter the price.

Agreed. I hate Ryanair with a passion though

likewise. My loathing of Ryanair borders on the irrational. Even their colour scheme irks me.

Anabobazina

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

GIN1138

Baxter gives Con a majority of 78 based on MORI - getting close to landslide territy now.

isam

Nigel_Foremain said:

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Why would she be in any debates with the other two?

RobD

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

He was forced to do it by Parliament. A Parliament he would be seeking to replace.

Philip_Thompson

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

Always.

Tabman

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Nope.

My lad is a Joe/Joseph

PClipp

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

The problem is that Labour are not really drifting into being a Remain party. Under Corbyn, they are just drifting. Nobody knows what they really stand for, except that a lot of people sense that it is towards a Socialist dictatorship.

OldKingCole

Tabman said:

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Nope.

My lad is a Joe/Joseph

Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.

Gabs2

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.

Anabobazina

Nigel_Foremain said:

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Yes, the optics of two bigoted old white men versus a nice bright Celtic lady with dangly earrings and a clear message might not work to the big two’s advantage.

Byronic

Dura_Ace said:

Byronic said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.

Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.

The answer is in my comment. I am fascinated by Cameron's psychology. What would bring a "well-bred" Old Etonian Tory to do something so blatantly non-U as snitching on the Queen?!

I accept others won't share my fascination, so I shall draw a line under the subject, until Cameron's next clanging error.

IanB2

isam said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Why would she be in any debates with the other two?

Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.

Anabobazina

Gabs2 said:

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.

Thank god.

Cyclefree

Byronic said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.

Or his publishers told him his book was dull and were there any stories he could add to liven it up please before they asked him for a return of their advance.

Theuniondivvie

Sorry to be ungallant, but since royalty is the plat du jour, the Countess of Wessex looks awfy aged. Being married to a count must do that to you.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1174669875970793472?s=20

Gabs2

Anabobazina said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Yes, the optics of two bigoted old white men versus a nice bright Celtic lady with dangly earrings and a clear message might not work to the big two’s advantage.

It is worth pointing out everyone mocked me when I predicted poll shares with the Lib Dems would come second a few weeks back. One person claimed I was posting from Moscow.

Morris_Dancer

F1: currently a high chance of rain for Saturday and Sunday.

During the only wet Singapore Grand Prix to date the drainage was appalling.

Also, just seen Kubica won't be with Williams next year. Not too surprising, alas. Just not quick enough.

Noo

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

If the prize is Brexit, I'll stick with 237

Gabs2

Theuniondivvie said:

Sorry to be ungallant, but since royalty is the plat du jour, the Countess of Wessex looks awfy aged. Being married to a count must do that to you.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1174669875970793472?s=20

But she is married to an Earl...

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

Gabs2

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.

Thank god.

I made it much more intuitive by using a 1000 boxes. Usually it is done with three boxes, which trips people up more.

Scott_P

For future reference

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174682308500164609

Cyclefree

Byronic said:

Dura_Ace said:

Byronic said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

It's been a pretty good week for May in the "least bad living Tory PM" stakes, I think. Is it too early for an historical reappraisal?

Yes, can you imagine TMay blabbing so wankily about her chats with the Queen? No, it's impossible. Dave is in a league of his own there

WHY did he do it? I am mildly obsessed. I just can't get in the brain of a man that would do something so obviously ill-advised.

MalcolmG has the best explanation yet: that Cameron has been destabilised by his Brexit humiliation, and isn't thinking right.

Why does it matter so much or at all? He's politically dead and she'll soon be literally dead.

The answer is in my comment. I am fascinated by Cameron's psychology. What would bring a "well-bred" Old Etonian Tory to do something so blatantly non-U as snitching on the Queen?!

I accept others won't share my fascination, so I shall draw a line under the subject, until Cameron's next clanging error.

I am not surprised. Sometimes the stupidest things are done by people who are, on paper anyway, really quite bright. What they lack is common-sense. You meet Cameron’s type all the time in the City.

At least I do .....

anothernick

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I repeat my thoughts that Corbyn has made a tremendous mistake in rejecting the election call. Defeating Johnson on the vote was perhaps a tactical success but a humongous strategic blunder.

Corbyn allying with the Lib Dems may have seen him defeat Johnson in Parliament, but at the election as Labour drift towards being a Remain party they are fishing in the same pond of voters as the Lib Dems are.

In 2017 Corbyn did well not because Corbynism suddenly became popular, but because Remain voters largely fell in line behind Corbyn to reject giving May her forecast landslide majority. The Lib Dems collapsed in the polls during the campaign.

By rejecting the election Corbyn has gifted the Lib Dems and their fresh-faced young leader the opportunity to come out with a distinctive policy that is giving them the greatest positive publicity they've had in a decade. I don't see how a 2017-style squeeze on the Lib Dems is going to be possible next time now. Especially with the "Tinkerbell effect" of believing the Lib Dems not to be a wasted vote.

A Lib Dem surge damages Corbyn more than it does Johnson IMHO, taking as it does Remain voters who voted Labour last time. Corbyn will pay a hefty price for allying with and giving the opportunity to Swinson.

I agree with much of this but it doesn’t end there. If Tories can’t use the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, it risks a further splintering of their vote between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

He was forced to do it by Parliament. A Parliament he would be seeking to replace.

Rule No 1

It is always the government's fault.

Rule No 2

Johnson lies every time he opens his mouth.

Rule No 3

There is no such thing as a single-issue general election.

OldKingCole

Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

Philip_Thompson

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

Depends what the Monty Hall problem represents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGxyIQzLeUc

Gabs2

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

May was weak. She wasn't forced to request an extension, she voluntarily chose to do so.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1174683648584552448

williamglenn

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.

They'll look unconvincing to diehard Brexiteers, and hysterical to everyone else.

Scott_P

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1174684289239322627

nichomar

OldKingCole said:

Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

They will win the west Somerset one I think

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed. The choice facing voters in the polls with the parties >20% is

Boris "we must leave the EU" Johnson, the face of the leave campaign.
Jeremy "negotiate a new deal then campaign to reject that deal and remain" Corbyn
Jo "revoke Article 50 without a referendum" Swinson

Swinson and Corbyn are pushing each other to more and more extreme remain positions. Tories now don't just have the threat of Corbyn to keep their voters loyal, they have the threat of Article 50 being revoked without a referendum to keep them loyal too! "If you don't vote Conservative then Article 50 could be revoked without a referendum" is a powerful argument.

If this campaign is taking place after Johnson failed to deliver Brexit on October 31st, how will he retain credibility?

Simple.

Because he was frustrated by a Remain-majority in Parliament and has expelled the Remainers from his party that caused that and needs a majority in Parliament to support him.

Number 10 keep telling everyone that the Benn law doesn't stop him doing No Deal, so as far as the Faragistes are concerned, if we're still in the EU on November 1st, it will be because Boris Johnson was weak.

Coincidently, that's exactly what he said about Theresa May in March: "The reason we are not leaving on Friday is not the fault of MPs. We are not leaving this Friday because the government has chickened out."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

And he will say they tried a prorogation and a supreme court case to stop it. The Remoaner establishment stitched them up and only the loud voice of the British people can overcome their evil plots.

They'll look unconvincing to diehard Brexiteers, and hysterical to everyone else.

Funny how everyone saying it'll look unconvincing to Brexiteers is actually a Remainer. I don't see any Brexiteers here saying that.

Its dangerous for you to drink your own koolaid.

isam

IanB2 said:

isam said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I don't know whether anyone else has commented, but it will be interesting to see how voters see her if there is a live TV debate. My guess is they will be very tempted when she is seen as the alternative to the two misogynistic dinosaurs that by some bizarre twist of fate now lead our two "big" parties.

Why would she be in any debates with the other two?

Yep, that will be it. Boris will run away from the debates, or at least any but a head to head with Corbyn. Just as he ran away during the leadership contest, ran away in Luxembourg, ran away from parliament, and wishes he had run away from that NHS hospital. Why some people seem to think he is a confident and brave politician is beyond me.

If there were to be a tv debate, it would be Boris vs Jezza, or everyone including the Greens, Farage, PC, Sturgeon etc, so the opportunity for a contrast between lovely wee Jo, and the horrid men wouldnt arise

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1174684742014443520

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, there are no British counts. There are earls, derived from the Scandinavian jarl.

You naughty sausage, you.

Tabman

OldKingCole said:

Tabman said:

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Nope.

My lad is a Joe/Joseph

Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.

Joseph? Dickens wrote about Joe Gargery

Morris_Dancer

F1: sorely tempted by Bottas each way at 7.5 for qualifying but the weather forecast has put me off. Could be a very peculiar session. Or entirely ordinary.

Freggles

Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool

I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP

Selebian

OldKingCole said:

Tabman said:

Pulpstar said:

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

Nope.

My lad is a Joe/Joseph

Got a grandson Joe. Think it's become a lot more popular in the last 20 years.

The ONS tracker is fascinating (to me at least!) on this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc363/babyindex.html

(Joe has actually dropped in the last 20 years)

Gallowgate

OldKingCole said:

Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

This ward looks suspiciously gerrymandered. What’s all that about?

Byronic

oo's this c*nt coughing

Gallowgate

Freggles said:

Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool

I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP

Really can’t see City of Durham going Lib Dem no matter how much I would like it to.

RobD

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

Anabobazina said:

Gabs2 said:

From the previous thread, the Monty Hall problem is most intuitive if you have 1000 boxes and only one has a prize. You pick Box 237 and then the host opens all the other boxes, except Box 819, and the others are all prizeless. You then get to choose to stay on 237 or swap to 819. What do you do?

I feel I’m going to regret this...

Do I swap?

Yes, you have a 1 in 1000 chance to win if you stay and a 999 in 1000 chance if you swap.

Thank god.

I can’t get my head round why it isn’t 50/50.

Philip_Thompson

Freggles said:

Flavible model for the Ipsos Mori poll:https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2296

Can't see it happening but would result in popcorn shortages. Pidcock loses her seat to LDs and the Tories win Hartlepool

I'm assuming Ipsos don't prompt for BXP

Flavible seems ridiculously Lib Dem friendly. A 10 point poll lead resulting in a Hung Parliament and a record number of Lib Dems seems counterintuitive to me.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

And youre going to Belfast ??? : )

First weekend of March next year.

I'm spending five whole days in Belfast.

PS - What's the best option of getting to Belfast from England that doesn't involve flying on Ryanair or Easyjet?

Theres Flybe but theyre just as bad as the rest. Really you should chose based on which airport you fancy. Belfast City= small jolty planes but a taxi ride away, Belfast International real planes but an hour to the centre.

If youre going to a wedding ask the wedding lot where you are staying and plan accordingly. Depending on how much time you have free there are some nice day trips out from Belfast. Hire a car, I got 5 days for £75 off-season earlier this year.

I'm provisionally staying at the Merchant Hotel which I'm told isn't that far from the wedding venue.

ooh Posh. You can do their water tasting course where they charge you a couple of limbs to taste water from around the world.

My kind of establishment.

RobD

Gallowgate said:

OldKingCole said:

Six council by-elections tonight. On paper the LD's only really look like runners in one, but given the current state of politics, one never knows.
See https://britainelects.com/category/council-by-elections/

This ward looks suspiciously gerrymandered. What’s all that about?

That doesn’t look particularly gerrymandered, just avoiding the town. If you want gerrymandered constituencies, check out the US congress.

malcolmg

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lord Keen taking no prisoners:

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174672829536710657?s=20

It's a very good point. The remedy to resist prorogation implicitly lies within parliament.<

Anabobazina said:

isam said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

There may be increased awareness of Jo Swinson, but clearly not sufficient for OGH to spell her name correctly in the headline!

Indeed, I have a friend who didn't realise until last week that she was a lady Jo rather than gentleman Joe.

If she renounced her pronouns and went by "they" she might win back those lost student votes off Jezza

Bozza's brother Jo uses the feminine spelling for some reason.

Jo = Joanna, Joanne, Joseph, Josephine

Joe = Joe ?

you missed Jocinda