politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Ber

Norm said:

GIN1138 said:

Jo Swinson very, very good.

Makes Jezza look like a broken, clapped out shell of a man.

Could LIb-Dems replace Labour as the main Opposition if there is an election at some point?

No because I'm suspecting Corbyn will be gone v soon - maybe an unspoken reason why Labour are so keen to delay the election

We can only hope

GIN1138 said:

Jo Swinson very, very good.

Makes Jezza look like a broken, clapped out shell of a man.

Could LIb-Dems replace Labour as the main Opposition if there is an election at some point?

In the election after next maybe, this time their main aim to get more votes than Labour, then they can aim for getting more seats than Labour too after that

HYUFD said:

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

Noo said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Noo said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

https://twitter.com/CalumSSherwood/status/1171033549564198912

I personally support gay marriage but you can vote against it for religious reasons without being homophobic, you can even support civil partnerships but not gay marriage

Saying that same sex couple should be excluded from an opportunity that's freely available to heterosexual couple is definitionally homophobic. It doesn't matter that it comes from a religious point of view. Nobody requires the consent of a minister of religion to get married.
If I want to marry someone of the same gender as me, it's not up to a priest or imam or rabbi to tell me whether that's ok or not. Their opinions are totally irrelevant to the legality of it.

No, civil partnerships provided the same legal rights as heterosexual couples had in marriage. It is the religious element of marriage that was the issue, indeed I still know some priests who refuse to marry divorced couples too

You can get married in a civil ceremony.

You can also have a civil partnership in a civil ceremony but you can only get married in a religious place of worship

False. You can marry in places other than a place of worship. I should know, that's what I did.

You cannot have a civil ceremony in a religious place of worship, only a marriage

Correct. But you can have a civil marriage ceremony in a register office. By law there must be no religious element to such a ceremony.

If you marry in a place of worship other than a C of E or RC church a civil registrar must attend to make the marriage valid in law (by getting the participants to sign the civil register and there are certain forms of words that the registrar must witness being used).

None of which changes the fact that for many religious people marriage is a religious institution above all and its definition cannot be changed by law, whatever civil ceremonies have or is decided under secular law

So I'm not married in the eyes of many religious people then? Even though I'm considerably more devoutly religious than most of them?

CaptainBuzzkill said:

rcs1000 said:

They would ask WhatsApp to voluntarily hand the information over. This isn't being used in a criminal prosecution, it's a request from the Houses of Parliament. And, of course, they would ask Mr Cummings (or whoever) to help them with their request. If Mr Cummings said no, they score a political victory.

The public would see a remainer parliament targeting individuals they have probably never heard of with the aim of bolstering their attempts at overturning Brexit.

Grieve is despised by leavers and there would be no political blowback from refusing to comply with his ridiculous games.

Frothing remainers would be apoplectic but then that is situation normal for the cretins.

I don't think Yellowhammer has much that will surprise, as the same resrarch can and has been done outside.

If the PM and Privy Councillors have lied to the Queen, it is quite aformidable issue constitutionally.

HYUFD said:

Bill Cash now speaking as the debate continues at 7 minutes past midnight

And what a spectacle that was, finally someone talking real sense.

Another ex Labour MP Ivan Lewis now laying into Corbyn too following Ian Austin while urging the Brexit vote to be respected

Former Labour MP Ivan Lewis really sticking it to Corbyn.

Ivan Lewis getting a gentle round of applause from HMG benches. Jolly good speech.

Foxy said:

CaptainBuzzkill said:

rcs1000 said:

They would ask WhatsApp to voluntarily hand the information over. This isn't being used in a criminal prosecution, it's a request from the Houses of Parliament. And, of course, they would ask Mr Cummings (or whoever) to help them with their request. If Mr Cummings said no, they score a political victory.

The public would see a remainer parliament targeting individuals they have probably never heard of with the aim of bolstering their attempts at overturning Brexit.

Grieve is despised by leavers and there would be no political blowback from refusing to comply with his ridiculous games.

Frothing remainers would be apoplectic but then that is situation normal for the cretins.

I don't think Yellowhammer has much that will surprise, as the same resrarch can and has been done outside.

If the PM and Privy Councillors have lied to the Queen, it is quite aformidable issue constitutionally.

Even worse if they’ve lied to the court.

AndyJS said:

Former Labour MP Ivan Lewis really sticking it to Corbyn.

The Labour MP who attacked Austin during his speech is a disgrace.

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Jo Swinson very, very good.

Makes Jezza look like a broken, clapped out shell of a man.

Could LIb-Dems replace Labour as the main Opposition if there is an election at some point?

In the election after next maybe, this time their main aim to get more votes than Labour, then they can aim for getting more seats than Labour too after that

If Labour replace Corby, then the LibDems MPs will be back to their familiar taxi.

In fact, it is in the interests of the LibDems (and the SNP) to have an election asap -- not in 2 years time.

Labour won't replace Corbyn, the membership and NEC are now in the pockets of Corbynism which gives the LDs their chance

Barnesian said:

I don't think Bercow has had a break for at least 9 hours, How does he do it!

That's why he got rid of the tights!

HYUFD said:

Bercow now finally called for the division on the early general election vote

It could be approved by 433 votes to nil and still not pass.

If a deal is struck to get the 21 back on board then hes probably safe from a VONC

Diviiisssiiioooonn. Clear the lobby!

Prediction? Govt needs 434, falls 128 short.

Norm said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Jo Swinson very, very good.

Makes Jezza look like a broken, clapped out shell of a man.

Could LIb-Dems replace Labour as the main Opposition if there is an election at some point?

In the election after next maybe, this time their main aim to get more votes than Labour, then they can aim for getting more seats than Labour too after that

If Labour replace Corby, then the LibDems MPs will be back to their familiar taxi.

In fact, it is in the interests of the LibDems (and the SNP) to have an election asap -- not in 2 years time.

Labour won't replace Corbyn, the membership and NEC are now in the pockets of Corbynism which gives the LDs their chance

He might be quietly persuaded by his allies or more likely resign voluntarily as rumoured earlier in the year.

He won't and even if he did a Corbynista would be elected by the membership to replace him

Ayes 293
Noes 46

So little surprise and 2/3 majority requirement not met for a general election

Labour votes to continue the coup.

Boris says he will still 'strive to get an agreement in the national interest' but will not delay Brexit any further

CarlottaVance said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

CaptainBuzzkill said:

rcs1000 said:

They would ask WhatsApp to voluntarily hand the information over. This isn't being used in a criminal prosecution, it's a request from the Houses of Parliament. And, of course, they would ask Mr Cummings (or whoever) to help them with their request. If Mr Cummings said no, they score a political victory.

The public would see a remainer parliament targeting individuals they have probably never heard of with the aim of bolstering their attempts at overturning Brexit.

Grieve is despised by leavers and there would be no political blowback from refusing to comply with his ridiculous games.

Frothing remainers would be apoplectic but then that is situation normal for the cretins.

I don't think Yellowhammer has much that will surprise, as the same resrarch can and has been done outside.

If the PM and Privy Councillors have lied to the Queen, it is quite aformidable issue constitutionally.

Even worse if they’ve lied to the court.

Were that to be the case, what might the consequences be?

Perjury, contempt, PCOJ, but HMG didn't admit any statements as to the reasons for prorogation in the Cherry case in Scotland. I don't know whether they did so in Miller in London.

KentRising said:

Corbyn's looking ill.

Agreed I think he's gone. Watch this space.

Corbyn: "This government is a disgrace."

Lol, you just abstained on a general election mate.

Right, Blackford's talking so I'm off to bed.

AndyJS said:

Norm said:

KentRising said:

Corbyn's looking ill.

Agreed I think he's gone. Watch this space.

Ian Dunt thinks it's Boris who looks finished.

oh please let it be both

Davy: "This is a sad day for democracy.'

You just abstained on a general election mate.

What a knob.

KentRising said:

Davy: "This is a sad day for democracy.'

You just abstained on a general election mate.

What a knob.

Stop whining and go to bed

Pulpstar said:

Is Liz Saville Roberts even welsh ?

Breaking: NO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Saville_Roberts

The party conference organisers can now sleep safely

dyedwoolie said:

If a deal is struck to get the 21 back on board then hes probably safe from a VONC

I'd be surprised of all of them agree to go back even if he offers it.

Fourth SNP point of order now.

Fifth!

An ignominious end to a terribly overlong and, I'm sure when we look back on it, constitutionally disastrous session of parliament.

Sixth SNP point of order. Night all.

edmundintokyo said:

dyedwoolie said:

If a deal is struck to get the 21 back on board then hes probably safe from a VONC

I'd be surprised of all of them agree to go back even if he offers it.

I'd be surprised were it the majority, never mind all.

HYUFD said:

Alan Duncan says our postwar and Victorian party system facing collapse

Well no effing shit!

The country is no longer conservative by any stretch and industry has died a death in Britain meaning a "Labour" is no longer relevant.

GIN1138 said:

Jo Swinson very, very good.

Makes Jezza look like a broken, clapped out shell of a man.

Could LIb-Dems replace Labour as the main Opposition if there is an election at some point?

Sceptical. The problem is the soft left are still onside with Corbyn Labour and the voters they need to replace Labour are very different to those they need to get back to 2005/2010 levels. If it does happen, it will happen very fast and likely be triggered by Labour's own failings - e.g. EHRC and mass resignations, a Corbyn defeat and refusal to resign and or mass resignations.

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/ZubyMusic/status/1170733012847194112

In Central London you can see homeless heroin addicts shooting up in doorways. I'm not sure we're that mucg better.

I met a friend from the US in Dublin earlier this year, and the first thing she said was “where are all the homeless people”

By the way, how on Earth do Americans cope with having all these radio stations that are anagrams of each other? Totally confusing and unmemorable.

HYUFD said:

MJW said:

AndyJS said:

Norm said:

KentRising said:

Corbyn's looking ill.

Agreed I think he's gone. Watch this space.

Ian Dunt thinks it's Boris who looks finished.

Both should be. Corbyn has more chance of clinging on. The Tories do not have the same sentimental attachment to Johnson Labour have to Corbyn. The problem for a long time with Corbyn is that whatever horrors he presides over, Labour members see deposing him as a repudiation of their core beliefs. The fact he's an old fraud with toxic views is unable to change that. It's asking people to kill the hope they wrongly believed in. If Johnson fails on the Other hand he is done. There are plenty of hardcore Brexiteers who believe they are better equipped, Remainers loathe him, and everyone else are notoriously impatient with leaders who mess up.

The Tories don't have the same sentimental attachment to leaders full stop.

They toppled Heath, IDS, May, even Thatcher when it looked like they were dragging the party down with them or after a poor election result while Labour stuck with the likes of Foot and Kinnock and Brown

True. But there is a point about Corbyn that is different. He won by speaking to the romantic part of Labour's soul. I know this as a member on the left who was rare in going "What the fuck are you doing?" In 2015 and sparking fury among friends. Asking some people to disown Corbyn is like asking them to admit a huge part of their politics is really, really wrong. It's a psychological issue rather than the usual Labour sentimentality. Hence why he gets away with things no other Labour would.

MJW said:

HYUFD said:

MJW said:

AndyJS said:

Norm said:

KentRising said:

Corbyn's looking ill.

Agreed I think he's gone. Watch this space.

Ian Dunt thinks it's Boris who looks finished.

Both should be. Corbyn has more chance of clinging on. The Tories do not have the same sentimental attachment to Johnson Labour have to Corbyn. The problem for a long time with Corbyn is that whatever horrors he presides over, Labour members see deposing him as a repudiation of their core beliefs. The fact he's an old fraud with toxic views is unable to change that. It's asking people to kill the hope they wrongly believed in. If Johnson fails on the Other hand he is done. There are plenty of hardcore Brexiteers who believe they are better equipped, Remainers loathe him, and everyone else are notoriously impatient with leaders who mess up.

The Tories don't have the same sentimental attachment to leaders full stop.

They toppled Heath, IDS, May, even Thatcher when it looked like they were dragging the party down with them or after a poor election result while Labour stuck with the likes of Foot and Kinnock and Brown

True. But there is a point about Corbyn that is different. He won by speaking to the romantic part of Labour's soul. I know this as a member on the left who was rare in going "What the fuck are you doing?" In 2015 and sparking fury among friends. Asking some people to disown Corbyn is like asking them to admit a huge part of their politics is really, really wrong. It's a psychological issue rather than the usual Labour sentimentality. Hence why he gets away with things no other Labour would.

Surely the most important thing, from a Labour point of view, ought to be to get a Labour government elected, and Corbyn is an impediment to that. (Not addressing you personally, addressing Labour members in general).

Why didn't Boris put forth a motion to have an election ignoring the full term Parliament act?

It only needed a simple majority and then a 14 day cooling off period?

nunuone said:

Why didn't Boris put forth a motion to have an election ignoring the full term Parliament act?

It only needed a simple majority and then a 14 day cooling off period?

Cos he would have lost?

nunuone said:

Why didn't Boris put forth a motion to have an election ignoring the full term Parliament act?

It only needed a simple majority and then a 14 day cooling off period?

Maybe he doesn't want an election ?

nunuone said:

HYUFD said:

Alan Duncan says our postwar and Victorian party system facing collapse

Well no effing shit!

The country is no longer conservative by any stretch and industry has died a death in Britain meaning a "Labour" is no longer relevant.

On reducing immigration, regaining sovereignty via Brexit, keeping their own taxes low, support for the monarchy and tougher law and order this country is still very much conservative.

While the country has little time for Corbyn nonetheless it does support more rent controls, nationalising the railways and key industries and higher taxes on the rich and big corporations which was why Labour managed to get a hung parliament in 2017 in the first place. Plus we still have manufacturing, particularly high tech manufacturing and unions even if they are not as strong as they were.

To say everyone is economically and socially liberal now is a big stretch, certainly outside of wealthier urban areas

Bercow returns to the House of Commons, being applauded on one side, with the other side completely empty.

surbiton19 said:

If the Conservative Party invites them back, it would be a statement that a mistake was done. Otherwise, why do so ?
Will there be apologies ? You cannot throw people out with half a century of service and then say, come back all is forgiven. Who will forgive whom ?

Yup. If the Tories want them back they'll have to replace Boris.

It's a slightly weird constitutional situation right now where the Prime Minister is the one person in parliament the least likely to be able to command a majority.

Horrible scenes in parliament, on all sides. No common ground between the various factions. I wish the 1990s would return.

AndyJS said:

Horrible scenes in parliament, on all sides. No common ground between the various factions. I wish the 1990s would return.

Opposition state how the rhetoric must be toned down then chant Shame On You like a street rabble

Yellow_Submarine said:

Just finished watching all the ceremony and drama on BBC Parliament. The break down of ettiquette after a very unusual prorogation is a very bad sign. As is the first hint the State opening will be scaled down and not feature Her Majesty given the very odd circumstances.

Wise counsel ensured Her Majesty wasn't there tonight to be anywhere near that shitshow. The actions and words of John Bercow and some Opposition MPs were genuinely shocking and an absolute disgrace.

One thing is for sure, the role of Speaker is forever ruined now, to be filled only by a partisan figure, thanks to the little man and his fans in Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

One day there is going to be a reckoning.

MikeL said:

Anyone betting on no GE this year would be very encouraged by interview with Stephen Pound on LBC just now.

He was completely dismissive of a GE in Nov or Dec - said can't have a GE in those months as too cold and dark - which would badly affect turnout. Also said the public don't want to be distracted from Christmas(!)

Furthermore he said little or no point in having a GE in any case as would produce another divided Parliament which would be unable to make any more progress on Brexit than the current Parliament.

Said he preferred a "confirmatory vote" on Brexit.

Now they're getting it.

If a government with a majority of zero just gave you 20, and you now have a majority to do what you want, why would you have an election when you can just do what you want?

OT: Trump might as well just re name himself Trumpski

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1171226614866337792?s=20

dyedwoolie said:

They dont have a majority. They are 6 or 7 different factions

A majority is always comprised of different factions, whether they're in a single party or not. But there's probably a majority for a way forward, namely tweak the PD to make a softer brexit and put it to a confirmatory referendum.

https://twitter.com/Terrymc1939/status/1171231541068029952

"Mayhem in the Commons as MPs scuffle at the Speaker's chair amid protests over the suspension of Parliament as John Bercow tells Tory member 'I don't give a flying flamingo what you think'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7445963/Scuffles-break-Speakers-chair-amid-attempts-shut-Parliament.html