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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Ber

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if Bercow will defect to Labour about 5 minutes after he ceases to be Speaker...
  • AndyJS said:

    I wonder if Bercow will defect to Labour about 5 minutes after he ceases to be Speaker...

    If the Government doesn't give him his peerage.... My guess is in the end they will to stop him hanging around as an awkward Independent backbencher. Though if we don't get an election this year a Buckingham By-election would be fascinating.
  • Just finished watching all the ceremony and drama on BBC Parliament. The break down of ettiquette after a very unusual prorogation is a very bad sign. As is the first hint the State opening will be scaled down and not feature Her Majesty given the very odd circumstances.

    Wise counsel ensured Her Majesty wasn't there tonight to be anywhere near that shitshow. The actions and words of John Bercow and some Opposition MPs were genuinely shocking and an absolute disgrace.

    One thing is for sure, the role of Speaker is forever ruined now, to be filled only by a partisan figure, thanks to the little man and his fans in Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

    One day there is going to be a reckoning.
    Oh they'll be a reckoning alright. The next non Conservative Government will remove prorogation from the Crown Perogative and put it into statute law.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I wonder if Bercow will defect to Labour about 5 minutes after he ceases to be Speaker...

    If the Government doesn't give him his peerage.... My guess is in the end they will to stop him hanging around as an awkward Independent backbencher. Though if we don't get an election this year a Buckingham By-election would be fascinating.
    The LDs shouldn't have much trouble winning Buckingham in a by-election, but it would be much more difficult at a general election.
  • A reminder, it’s not just the Tories who are seriously split:

    https://twitter.com/Emily_Benn/status/1171198702108708864?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Parliamentary defeats for each Prime Minister:

    Thatcher - 4 in 11 years
    Major - 6 in 7 years
    Blair - 4 in 10 years
    Brown - 3 in 3 years
    Cameron - 10 in 6 years
    May - 33 in 3 years
    Johnson - 6 in one week
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    Parliamentary defeats for each Prime Minister:

    Thatcher - 4 in 11 years
    Major - 6 in 7 years
    Blair - 4 in 10 years
    Brown - 3 in 3 years
    Cameron - 10 in 6 years
    May - 33 in 3 years
    Johnson - 6 in one week

    To be fair, all but one had a majority.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Never felt so depressed about the state of British politics. Didn't think I'd see jostling in the chamber of the House of Commons. That was something that happened in other countries.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    They dont have a majority. They are 6 or 7 different factions

    A majority is always comprised of different factions, whether they're in a single party or not. But there's probably a majority for a way forward, namely tweak the PD to make a softer brexit and put it to a confirmatory referendum.
    It is an interesting question whether that majority (about which I think you’re right) can set aside their other difference even to choose an alternate PM, let alone form an administration.

    Since a general election in the near future would likely (though not certainly) give us another hung Parliament, there is at least some incentive for MPs to give it a shot before that.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    AndyJS said:

    Never felt so depressed about the state of British politics...

    That is something most here would agree on, I think.
  • Long time viewer first time poster.
    Watched tonight’s shenanigans in the Commons with total horror. Feels like we’re descending into a new level of chaos and misgovernment where no rules or conventions are respected. This is massively depressing and very dangerous.

    The next few weeks are going to be dark times and the people, who could have had a say before 31 Oct, now can’t.

    Both sides will share the blame when the day of reckoning comes.

    This has gone way, way beyond Brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jimbo74 said:

    Long time viewer first time poster.
    Watched tonight’s shenanigans in the Commons with total horror. Feels like we’re descending into a new level of chaos and misgovernment where no rules or conventions are respected. This is massively depressing and very dangerous.

    The next few weeks are going to be dark times and the people, who could have had a say before 31 Oct, now can’t.

    Both sides will share the blame when the day of reckoning comes.

    This has gone way, way beyond Brexit.

    It sets a terrible example to the public as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Jimbo74 said:

    Long time viewer first time poster.
    Watched tonight’s shenanigans in the Commons with total horror. Feels like we’re descending into a new level of chaos and misgovernment where no rules or conventions are respected. This is massively depressing and very dangerous.

    The next few weeks are going to be dark times and the people, who could have had a say before 31 Oct, now can’t.

    Both sides will share the blame when the day of reckoning comes.

    This has gone way, way beyond Brexit.

    Welcome.

    I wish I could see a clear way out of the mess. For now, it is far from obvious, particularly since the electorate appears as divided as the Commons.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "David Cameron has robustly defended his decision to call a referendum in 2016 on the UK’s membership of the EU, according to a film-maker producing a documentary about his time in 10 Downing Street."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/10/cameron-to-defend-brexit-referendum-in-documentary
  • Nigelb said:


    It is an interesting question whether that majority (about which I think you’re right) can set aside their other difference even to choose an alternate PM, let alone form an administration.

    Since a general election in the near future would likely (though not certainly) give us another hung Parliament, there is at least some incentive for MPs to give it a shot before that.

    Well right, not only does the next parliament look like it will produce another hung parliament, for most of the players the next parliament looks like it will almost definitely be worse than the current one, even if it goes well.

    Additionally, Corbyn really needs to repair his reputation, which could be best done by having some position of responsibility (ideally PM but not necessarily) and just being calm and statesmanlike and not bollocksing it up. So I feel like if everybody is being rationally self-interested they should be able to get it together. Obviously that's not a sure thing since there are also mutual suspicions and ancient grudges involved, but I don't think it's implausible that they'll manage to pull it off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Just finished watching all the ceremony and drama on BBC Parliament. The break down of ettiquette after a very unusual prorogation is a very bad sign. As is the first hint the State opening will be scaled down and not feature Her Majesty given the very odd circumstances.

    Wise counsel ensured Her Majesty wasn't there tonight to be anywhere near that shitshow. The actions and words of John Bercow and some Opposition MPs were genuinely shocking and an absolute disgrace.

    One thing is for sure, the role of Speaker is forever ruined now, to be filled only by a partisan figure, thanks to the little man and his fans in Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

    One day there is going to be a reckoning.
    Oh they'll be a reckoning alright. The next non Conservative Government will remove prorogation from the Crown Perogative and put it into statute law.
    Really? Thry might find that power useful and 'fail' to get to it by mistake.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    A reminder, it’s not just the Tories who are seriously split:

    https://twitter.com/Emily_Benn/status/1171198702108708864?s=20

    By that token the electorate of Dudley are about to tell him he is not welcome.

    Perhaps the Benn woman will accuse them of Anti Semitism!!
This discussion has been closed.