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Boris bad week bounce0
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They wont be on 46% combined if they merge though, some conservative voters cant stand Farage, and some Brexit voters are very anti Tory. Wont be surprised if it happens over the next few months though, there doesnt seem much point kicking out Hammond and his natural support unless you bring someone else in with new support.AndyJS said:The Tories and Brexit Party ought to make a pact since they're on about 46% combined. But they probably won't since Cummings apparently can't stand Farage.
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“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”0
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Panelbase is underwhelming for Bozo.
The May polls were effected by the Euro elections and so the + 10 is really from a very low base .
Doesn’t really show what’s really going on because the last poll is so far back . No doubt the Sunday Times will report it as a huge surge for Bozo !0 -
now you are away with the birds , WTF has the American Civil War got to do with brexit and our archaic machinations in our outdated shitty parliament , apart from both had lots of donkeys involved.Philip_Thompson said:
Robert E. Lee was an active armed serviceman. Didn't stop him betraying his country.DougSeal said:
Also I would love to know in what capacity you have served your country that allows you to so disgracefully demean a former armed serviceman and civil servant in that way.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes Stewart you did. You betrayed your party and country and colluded with the enemy before doing so.Scott_P said:0 -
Great news. Caught by Stokes off Leach.Philip_Thompson said:SMITH OUT!
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I didn’t say Murray would lose. I said that I cannot see the 2017 pattern of mass SCon tactical voting holding, due to the current harsh split within Unionism.*Noo said:
Morningside is safe territory for Murray. It's Remain central, Murray is well known and liked as a constituency MP, and they know him to be hostile to the excesses of Corbynism. Any rotting of Labour from the head down will reach Morningside last of all. There will not be a change of MP unless Murray stands down or the boundaries change.StuartDickson said:
Murray, like Swinson, is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting. In the current harsh split within Unionism, I cannot see that pattern holding.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.Theuniondivvie said:At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20
Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
Murray ought to hold on in Edinburgh South, on a much reduced majority. As should Christine Jardine in Edinburgh West.
But Jo Swinson and Jamie Stone are *much* more vulnerable to Unionist unwind. Swinson’s new profile as party leader ought to help her, but Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is anyone’s guess. Depends a lot on the calibre of the SNP candidate. Weirdly, the Brexit Party have already selected a PPC for that seat (Sandra Skinner).
(* For the avoidance of doubt, the current harsh split within Unionism = Brexit)0 -
It was a dismissal of the appeal to authority fallacy that was made by saying Stewart was a serviceman.malcolmg said:
now you are away with the birds , WTF has the American Civil War got to do with brexit and our archaic machinations in our outdated shitty parliament , apart from both had lots of donkeys involved.Philip_Thompson said:
Robert E. Lee was an active armed serviceman. Didn't stop him betraying his country.DougSeal said:
Also I would love to know in what capacity you have served your country that allows you to so disgracefully demean a former armed serviceman and civil servant in that way.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes Stewart you did. You betrayed your party and country and colluded with the enemy before doing so.Scott_P said:
If the SNP won a Yes referendum then during negotiations SNP MSPs in Holyrood were colluding with English MPs to obstruct Scottish independence and keep Scotland in the UK then that would be comparable.0 -
Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.0
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Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.Gallowgate said:“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”
Tories 377
Labour 184
LDs 32
Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
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It's all because we've had 300 years or more to write down our constitution and have never bothered to get around to it. Too lazy, or arrogant.malcolmg said:
It is all bollox so they can control the plebs, rotten to the core.RobD said:
I dunno about you, but I quite like conventions, it's part of what being a Tory is all about.GIN1138 said:
It would be... But we've long gone past the point where Parliamentary conventions actually count for anything.RobD said:Refusing royal assent would be outrageous. The Parliament has passed a law, you can't just ignore it because it is inconvenient.
Other countries that seem to get by on unwritten constitutions, aka random reports and writings include NZ and Israel ... but they've not had centuries to write it all down in one place.
Hennessey said on R4 that the PM's action in proroguing so long was probably legal but it was very bad form not to follow convention. In other words, our constitution is so weak and pathetic that it falls apart if people at the top don't behave like gentlemen (or ladies.)0 -
I predicted by the end of October, especially post-Tory Conference, if we went into prorogation with this law and without an election.Gallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
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Corbyns cowardly chicken run looks justified now - how long can he cower for ? Until the spring ?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
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Damn near another No Ball, too. How does a bowler like Leach bowl no-balls? Poor coaching IMHO!OldKingCole said:
Great news. Caught by Stokes off Leach.Philip_Thompson said:SMITH OUT!
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Con 35%AndyJS said:
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
Lab 25%
LDem 17%
Brexit 13%1 -
Why would Johnson in Opposition be of any interest to the EU whatsoever?HYUFD said:
If the EU ignores a Commons majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop then Boris rightly goes into Opposition on a No Deal platform until they change their mindGallowgate said:
No he can’t because “leave it” has been made illegal. The EU will quite rightly simply ignore him.HYUFD said:
The Commons could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstopGallowgate said:
How’s that going to work when the bill says that the extension must be requested by the 19th October unless Parliament votes for no deal or a new Brexit deal?HYUFD said:Given the current Parliament clearly has no interest in respecting the victorious Leave vote of 2016 I can certainly understand Boris in his determination to stand his ground and refuse to extend even if defying an Act of Parliament to do so.
However assuming the anti No Deal Bill gets Royal Assent next week rather than disobey the law Boris should shift course to try and get the EU to agree a technical solution for the Irish border as an alternative to the backstop in the EU Council of October 17th and then get an amended Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons (which the Brady amendment suggested it would).
If the EU does not agree to remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement then Boris should resign as PM by October 31st and take the Tories into opposition on a No Deal platform until the backstop is removed and let the Commons elect someone else as PM to extend. If they have not done so by the 31st as Lord Sumption, a Supreme Court judge said today a civil servant can sign the extension on behalf of the Government instead
a day or two before and Boris can tell the EU to either take it and his technical solution for the Irish border or leave it0 -
Even less chance of Labour supporting an early election after the Opinium .
They realize they only have s chance by splitting the Leave vote and must force the extension .0 -
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IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848
If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.
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The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/tories-extend-lead-over-labour-to-10-despite-chaotic-week?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true0 -
Based on that 35% figure though, a significant amount of Tory Remainers must be switching too.Philip_Thompson said:
This election will be very hard to predict.0 -
Have the polls from the different pollsters ever been more all over the place?0
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Did anyone say 40% immediatly?Gallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
However if Jezza continues to deny people having a general election we may get to that.0 -
I do find this somewhat amusing. The no deal act mandated the 'Kinnock' amendment is brought back. It is being supported by Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart and is TM WDA with adjustments agreed between labour and TM prior to her resignationAndrew said:
Even if Johnson was so inclined to bring it back, it wouldn't pass now.HYUFD said:The Commons could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
a day or two before and Boris can tell the EU to either take it and his technical solution for the Irish border or leave it
It has a considerable number of cross party supporters including Norman Lamb as far as I am aware0 -
Apparently its a higher risk with slower balls.OldKingCole said:
Damn near another No Ball, too. How does a bowler like Leach bowl no-balls? Poor coaching IMHO!OldKingCole said:
Great news. Caught by Stokes off Leach.Philip_Thompson said:SMITH OUT!
In order to surprise the batsman with a slower ball the spin bowler takes longer to release the ball and the foot naturally steps further forwards.
OUT!0 -
Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?0
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Johnson’s personal ratings have been dented after his bruising week in the Commons. Now only just over a third (36%) think he would be the best prime minister, down from 41% last month. However, Jeremy Corbyn is not benefiting from Johnson’s troubles. Only 16% say he would be the best prime minister.CarlottaVance said:The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/tories-extend-lead-over-labour-to-10-despite-chaotic-week?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Only 37% approve of the way that Johnson is handling the Brexit process, while 43% disapprove. However, that is better than than the ratings for Corbyn. Only 17% approve of the Labour leader’s response and 20% approve of Jo Swinson’s response.
Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament has not upset leave voters. The public as a whole is divided on this: 33% support the prime minister’s prorogation of parliament, while 36% oppose it. This is split evenly along EU referendum lines: 59% of leavers support the prorogation, while 61% of remainers oppose it.0 -
Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense again!!!HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.Gallowgate said:“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”
Tories 377
Labour 184
LDs 32
Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
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GIN1138 said:
Did anyone say 40% immediatly?Gallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
However if Jezza continues to deny people having a general election we may get to that.
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He wouldn't but he likely wins a majority at the next general election when he would be againStreeter said:
Why would Johnson in Opposition be of any interest to the EU whatsoever?HYUFD said:
If the EU ignores a Commons majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop then Boris rightly goes into Opposition on a No Deal platform until they change their mindGallowgate said:
No he can’t because “leave it” has been made illegal. The EU will quite rightly simply ignore him.HYUFD said:
The Commons could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstopGallowgate said:
How’s that going to work when the bill says that the extension must be requested by the 19th October unless Parliament votes for no deal or a new Brexit deal?HYUFD said:Given the current Parliament clearly has no interest in respecting the victorious Leave vote of 2016 I can certainly understand Boris in his determination to stand his ground and refuse to extend even if defying an Act of Parliament to do so.
However assuming the anti No Deal Bill gets Royal Assent next week rather than disobey the law Boris should shift course to try and get the EU to agree a technical solution for the Irish border as an alternative to the backstop in the EU Council of October 17th and then get an amended Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons (which the Brady amendment suggested it would).
If the EU does not agree to remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement then Boris should resign as PM by October 31st and take the Tories into opposition on a No Deal platform until the backstop is removed and let the Commons elect someone else as PM to extend. If they have not done so by the 31st as Lord Sumption, a Supreme Court judge said today a civil servant can sign the extension on behalf of the Government instead
a day or two before and Boris can tell the EU to either take it and his technical solution for the Irish border or leave it0 -
The north and Midlands are fallingHYUFD said:
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Smelling salts on standby.GIN1138 said:
Con +10Gallowgate said:Changes with May.
Only a 3 point lead over Labour. Oosh.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1170373770487500800?s=21
Or a bounce back from 21%
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You started well, YANAL.Byronic said:IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848
If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.0 -
Very easy to see 5% being squeezed from BXP to CON to get to 40% I'm predicting by end of October.Gallowgate said:
Con 35%AndyJS said:
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
Lab 25%
LDem 17%
Brexit 13%0 -
I'm afraid the longer Labour continues to deny people a general election the worse their position will get before OR after Brexit is delayed.nico67 said:Even less chance of Labour supporting an early election after the Opinium .
They realize they only have s chance by splitting the Leave vote and must force the extension .0 -
It shows they have gone mental, and are living in la la landGallowgate said:
Not sure what relevance that has.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not by choice. Many of us consider their position little different to that of an occupying power.Gallowgate said:
We’re all citizens of that ‘foreign power’.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU is a foreign power for these purposes, the EU's constitution makes this clear. We are not a part of the 27.Fenman said:
The EU is not a foreign power. We are members.Stark_Dawning said:
Weren't they just checking that the EU would indeed grant an extension if one was requested? If anything they were being helpful to Boris - no point losing him his majority if No Deal was nailed on anyway. Boris and Cummings should be thanking them for injecting a bit of clarity and thoroughness.dyedwoolie said:
Tbf if there were secret talks between the EU and the rebels and action agreed to subvert the UK government's position then it is collusion with a foreign power. The government are the only people that can negotiate with the EU.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Rory's right. They're starting to sound scary.Scott_P said:
The language is of course deliberately provocative and not necessary0 -
OK I may have had a rush of blood to the head.Gallowgate said:GIN1138 said:
Did anyone say 40% immediatly?Gallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
However if Jezza continues to deny people having a general election we may get to that.
Still one can see the direction of travel.
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and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
I agree with you malcolm, i cant see more than 3 to 5 Tory holdsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
Once in an election I doubt voters are going to be obsessed over a few weeks delay .GIN1138 said:
I'm afraid the longer Labour continues to deny people a general election the worse their position will get before OR after Brexit is delayed.nico67 said:Even less chance of Labour supporting an early election after the Opinium .
They realize they only have s chance by splitting the Leave vote and must force the extension .0 -
There’s bound to be a YouGov.WhisperingOracle said:Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?
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And if my aunt had bollocks she’d be my uncle.HYUFD said:
He wouldn't but he likely wins a majority at the next general election when he would be againStreeter said:
Why would Johnson in Opposition be of any interest to the EU whatsoever?HYUFD said:
If the EU ignores a Commons majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop then Boris rightly goes into Opposition on a No Deal platform until they change their mindGallowgate said:
No he can’t because “leave it” has been made illegal. The EU will quite rightly simply ignore him.HYUFD said:
The Commons could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstopGallowgate said:
How’s that going to work when the bill says that the extension must be requested by the 19th October unless Parliament votes for no deal or a new Brexit deal?HYUFD said:Given the current Parliament clearly has no interest in respecting the victorious Leave vote of 2016 I can certainly understand Boris in his determination to stand his ground and refuse to extend even if defying an Act of Parliament to do so.
However assuming the anti No Deal Bill gets Royal Assent next week rather than disobey the law Boris should shift course to try and get the EU to agree a technical solution for the Irish border as an alternative to the backstop in the EU Council of October 17th and then get an amended Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons (which the Brady amendment suggested it would).
If the EU does not agree to remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement then Boris should resign as PM by October 31st and take the Tories into opposition on a No Deal platform until the backstop is removed and let the Commons elect someone else as PM to extend. If they have not done so by the 31st as Lord Sumption, a Supreme Court judge said today a civil servant can sign the extension on behalf of the Government instead
a day or two before and Boris can tell the EU to either take it and his technical solution for the Irish border or leave it0 -
@HYUFD are the Tories taking Battersea on that poll?0
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Ah another predciiton I right - Con, Lib-Dem up (suspect SNP will be up there too) Lab and Brexit down.Gallowgate said:“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”
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Don’t get too carried away election in the spring we could be at war with Scotland by then0
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Yes according to Electoral Calculus (though I think it could go LD)Gallowgate said:@HYUFD are the Tories taking Battersea on that poll?
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Only if the absence of the BXP is significantly to the advantage of another party. We had years of people assuming ukip voters were mostly ex Tories, which turned out to be wrong. I suspect that the absence of the BXP would help the Tories, but not nearly as much as some seem to think, and further a pact with the BXP could hit the Tories in remain seats - the leaflets write themselvesTGOHF said:Problem with seat calculators are they assume the Brexit party will stand in every seats - that’s far from a given.
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So Tories slightly ahead (Panelbase, Survation) or strongly ahead (Opinium, YouGov). Johnson is again showing that there's no publicity that's bad publicity? That said, his personal rating is down in all the polls.
I don't think that we actually have much clue what the figures will be after Oct 31. But Newton-Dunn on the radio was interesting - he thinks Johnson will come up with a fudged deal that the EU will accept, and will fight an election on that basis. The problem is that it will reignite the BXP vote, and the decline in personal trust may make it difficult to hold the line.0 -
The thing is, the repetition of "chicken" for three weeks could have some traction for the tories. It's cheap and low politics, but as far Cummings is concerned, if it works, it will be done.nico67 said:
Once in an election I doubt voters are going to be obsessed over a few weeks delay .GIN1138 said:
I'm afraid the longer Labour continues to deny people a general election the worse their position will get before OR after Brexit is delayed.nico67 said:Even less chance of Labour supporting an early election after the Opinium .
They realize they only have s chance by splitting the Leave vote and must force the extension .0 -
I think the problem these polls pose for labour is they are not closing the gap when they are the main opposition. Indeed most polls show them static or dropping slightly and the local election results are appallingGallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
It is time for labour to recognise the damage Corbyn has created for them. Any sensible labour leader would have stood up against brexit and joined all parties on a stop brexit policy0 -
I think we're at Peak Boris. By the end of October 5% of Tories will have switched (back) to Farage.Philip_Thompson said:
Very easy to see 5% being squeezed from BXP to CON to get to 40% I'm predicting by end of October.Gallowgate said:
Con 35%AndyJS said:
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
Lab 25%
LDem 17%
Brexit 13%0 -
Tories will still likely have more Scottish seats than Labour in my view, even if fewer than the LDsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
Weren't we supposed to be at peak boris a few weeks ago?Dadge said:
I think we're at Peak Boris. By the end of October 5% of Tories will have switched (back) to Farage.Philip_Thompson said:
Very easy to see 5% being squeezed from BXP to CON to get to 40% I'm predicting by end of October.Gallowgate said:
Con 35%AndyJS said:
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
Lab 25%
LDem 17%
Brexit 13%
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Philip , I have lost the plot with it all, I see only chickens and arseholes to the right and left. They are all useless and we are heading for worst possible outcome for sure.Philip_Thompson said:
It was a dismissal of the appeal to authority fallacy that was made by saying Stewart was a serviceman.malcolmg said:
now you are away with the birds , WTF has the American Civil War got to do with brexit and our archaic machinations in our outdated shitty parliament , apart from both had lots of donkeys involved.Philip_Thompson said:
Robert E. Lee was an active armed serviceman. Didn't stop him betraying his country.DougSeal said:
Also I would love to know in what capacity you have served your country that allows you to so disgracefully demean a former armed serviceman and civil servant in that way.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes Stewart you did. You betrayed your party and country and colluded with the enemy before doing so.Scott_P said:
If the SNP won a Yes referendum then during negotiations SNP MSPs in Holyrood were colluding with English MPs to obstruct Scottish independence and keep Scotland in the UK then that would be comparable.0 -
Not when Boris is the figurehead for Leave. Especially after Tory Conference which will be tubthumping.Dadge said:
I think we're at Peak Boris. By the end of October 5% of Tories will have switched (back) to Farage.Philip_Thompson said:
Very easy to see 5% being squeezed from BXP to CON to get to 40% I'm predicting by end of October.Gallowgate said:
Con 35%AndyJS said:
Do we have the figures?Gallowgate said:10% Tory lead in Opinium
Lab 25%
LDem 17%
Brexit 13%
BXP are getting squeezed. Expelling Grieve and Clarke has killed them and they know it.0 -
Agreed but it’s too late now. Where that leads us? Who can say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the problem these polls pose for labour is they are not closing the gap when they are the main opposition. Indeed most polls show them static or dropping slightly and the local election results are appallingGallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
It is time for labour to recognise the damage Corbyn has created for them. Any sensible labour leader would have stood up against brexit and joined all parties on a stop brexit policy
Probably CON taking 80% remain Battersea.0 -
Indeed.malcolmg said:
Philip , I have lost the plot with it all, I see only chickens and arseholes to the right and left. They are all useless and we are heading for worst possible outcome for sure.Philip_Thompson said:
It was a dismissal of the appeal to authority fallacy that was made by saying Stewart was a serviceman.malcolmg said:
now you are away with the birds , WTF has the American Civil War got to do with brexit and our archaic machinations in our outdated shitty parliament , apart from both had lots of donkeys involved.Philip_Thompson said:
Robert E. Lee was an active armed serviceman. Didn't stop him betraying his country.DougSeal said:
Also I would love to know in what capacity you have served your country that allows you to so disgracefully demean a former armed serviceman and civil servant in that way.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes Stewart you did. You betrayed your party and country and colluded with the enemy before doing so.Scott_P said:
If the SNP won a Yes referendum then during negotiations SNP MSPs in Holyrood were colluding with English MPs to obstruct Scottish independence and keep Scotland in the UK then that would be comparable.0 -
Even if the Tories lost all 13 Scottish seats to the SNP they would still have a majority of 78 with Opinium according to Electoral CalculusSouthamObserver said:
Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense again!!!HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.Gallowgate said:“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”
Tories 377
Labour 184
LDs 32
Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
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Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do find this somewhat amusing. The no deal act mandated the 'Kinnock' amendment is brought back. It is being supported by Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart and is TM WDA with adjustments agreed between labour and TM prior to her resignation
It has a considerable number of cross party supporters including Norman Lamb as far as I am aware
It's different - the Brady amendment was WA minus backstop. Kinnock amendment is WA inc backstop and customs union as well, so there would be a hefty Con rebellion more than wiping out any backbench opposition support.0 -
That was trailed a few days ago. They also mentioned Angela Smith which would be... Brave.nico67 said:Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
Surely you realise that if you write posts like this, then everyone can see you're a nutter?Byronic said:IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848
If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.0 -
I was actually quoting Churchill, not Burke but that doesn't matter much.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. All this because MPs forgot they were delegated to represent their constituents and not their own personal wishes and desires.
I know you all love to quote Burke on this as if he is some sort of prophet but it is worth remembering that Burke's actions based on his own philosophy ruined the businesses and lives of many of those he represented and led to him being thrown out of office 2 years later.
In the end you can make all these claims about 'delegates' rather than 'representatives' but most of the time it is just a smoke screen for MPs doing what they want and sod their constituents.
To be honest, MPs, once elected, can do whatever they like and it's really only their Party that keeps them "in check" via the power of the Whip.
A referendum is not an election - my area, Newham, voted 53-47 to Remain and my MP, Stephen Timms, voted against the invoking of A50 etc. He was representing his constituents and the result of the referendum in his area if not nationally but the 47% who voted Leave in Newham aren't represented at all.
Referenda are ultimately divisive and counter-productive and, apart from local issues, probably don't work in a parliamentary democracy. Clement Attlee saw their dangers as have others.
The nation has had to endure this pain because the Conservative Party was unable to resolve its own internal divisions and decided asking the public would somehow lead to a resolution.
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two is not a good resultHYUFD said:
Tories will still likely have more Scottish seats than Labour in my view, even if fewer than the LDsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
The rumour is Angela Smith then Heidi at conferencenico67 said:Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
You keep telling yourself thatnico67 said:
Once in an election I doubt voters are going to be obsessed over a few weeks delay .GIN1138 said:
I'm afraid the longer Labour continues to deny people a general election the worse their position will get before OR after Brexit is delayed.nico67 said:Even less chance of Labour supporting an early election after the Opinium .
They realize they only have s chance by splitting the Leave vote and must force the extension .0 -
Even if the EU accept does he have the numbers in parliament for any realistic deal? Seems unlikely so will have failed to get us out do or die, and would need a clear majority post election which is odds against. Not sure the EU would be willing to play their last concession at such odds.NickPalmer said:So Tories slightly ahead (Panelbase, Survation) or strongly ahead (Opinium, YouGov). Johnson is again showing that there's no publicity that's bad publicity? That said, his personal rating is down in all the polls.
I don't think that we actually have much clue what the figures will be after Oct 31. But Newton-Dunn on the radio was interesting - he thinks Johnson will come up with a fudged deal that the EU will accept, and will fight an election on that basis. The problem is that it will reignite the BXP vote, and the decline in personal trust may make it difficult to hold the line.0 -
You need to see a doctorHYUFD said:
Even if the Tories lost all 13 Scottish seats to the SNP they would still have a majority of 78 with Opinium according to Electoral CalculusSouthamObserver said:
Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense again!!!HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.Gallowgate said:“The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”
Tories 377
Labour 184
LDs 32
Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Rebellion?Andrew said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do find this somewhat amusing. The no deal act mandated the 'Kinnock' amendment is brought back. It is being supported by Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart and is TM WDA with adjustments agreed between labour and TM prior to her resignation
It has a considerable number of cross party supporters including Norman Lamb as far as I am aware
It's different - the Brady amendment was WA minus backstop. Kinnock amendment is WA inc backstop and customs union as well, so there would be a hefty Con rebellion more than wiping out any backbench opposition support.
Boris should whip against it.0 -
So do I. The conservatives will be lucky to retain 2 or 3 seatsdyedwoolie said:
I agree with you malcolm, i cant see more than 3 to 5 Tory holdsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
Possibly sandbach as welldyedwoolie said:
The rumour is Angela Smith then Heidi at conferencenico67 said:Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
If it’s one of the 21 Tory rebels that would be more noteworthy but can’t think who that would be .Gallowgate said:
That was trailed a few days ago. They also mentioned Angela Smith which would be... Brave.nico67 said:Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
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It is all too crazy even for me I am off to take strong drink.0
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I can’t see that . I like her and would love to see her with the Lib Dems but can’t imagine her moving .nichomar said:
Possibly sandbach as welldyedwoolie said:
The rumour is Angela Smith then Heidi at conferencenico67 said:Apparently another MP is heading towards the Lib Dems .
My guess would be Heidi Allen .0 -
31% and a 3% lead. Good luck with that. Goodnight.0
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Yes but the support for it is coming near tomthe extreme ERG rebelsAndrew said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do find this somewhat amusing. The no deal act mandated the 'Kinnock' amendment is brought back. It is being supported by Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart and is TM WDA with adjustments agreed between labour and TM prior to her resignation
It has a considerable number of cross party supporters including Norman Lamb as far as I am aware
It's different - the Brady amendment was WA minus backstop. Kinnock amendment is WA inc backstop and customs union as well, so there would be a hefty Con rebellion more than wiping out any backbench opposition support.
In the heat of the october chaos we cannot be sure of the vote. But vote there has to be0 -
Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire and aberdeenshire west I have as holds and close fights in Dumfries and Galloway, Aberdeen south and banff and buchan but unlikely to hold on in theseBig_G_NorthWales said:
So do I. The conservatives will be lucky to retain 2 or 3 seatsdyedwoolie said:
I agree with you malcolm, i cant see more than 3 to 5 Tory holdsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
You are free to call me a nutter, of course, but you’re not free to dispute the wording of the Treason Felony Act of 1848. Which, prima facie, has the ‘Rebel Alliance’ bang to rights.Dadge said:
Surely you realise that if you write posts like this, then everyone can see you're a nutter?Byronic said:IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848
If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.0 -
You mean 1 to 0HYUFD said:
Tories will still likely have more Scottish seats than Labour in my view, even if fewer than the LDsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
Now now.Gallowgate said:
Agreed but it’s too late now. Where that leads us? Who can say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the problem these polls pose for labour is they are not closing the gap when they are the main opposition. Indeed most polls show them static or dropping slightly and the local election results are appallingGallowgate said:Still no trace of this Con 40%+ that was predicted.
It is time for labour to recognise the damage Corbyn has created for them. Any sensible labour leader would have stood up against brexit and joined all parties on a stop brexit policy
Probably CON taking 80% remain Battersea.0 -
He wins the least famous leader of a political party award.dyedwoolie said:0 -
No, I mean 2 or 3 to 1Big_G_NorthWales said:
You mean 1 to 0HYUFD said:
Tories will still likely have more Scottish seats than Labour in my view, even if fewer than the LDsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
You just know that Labour will spend more time in the coming election campaign attacking the Lib Dems than the Tories.0
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Ooooh I dunno, the 'resurgent' SDP leaders name doesn't immediately pop into the headAndyJS said:
He wins the least famous leader of a political party award.dyedwoolie said:0 -
The thing with the polls is you have to remember the poll shifts lag the events, not the other way round.
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More than they had from 1997 to 2017 stillmalcolmg said:
two is not a good resultHYUFD said:
Tories will still likely have more Scottish seats than Labour in my view, even if fewer than the LDsmalcolmg said:
and the even bigger Tory losses to SNP as wellHYUFD said:
It also ignores the Labour losses in Scotland to the SNP too thoughSouthamObserver said:
One net gain for the SNP strongly suggests Electoral Calculus is predicting Tory gains in Scotland. Hmmm.HYUFD said:
No he isn't, Tories plus DUP have a majority with Survation and even with Panelbase the Tories would still comfortably be largest party.SouthamObserver said:If other weekend polls are similar to the Panelbase and Survation ones, Johnson is in deep, deep trouble. Big if, though.
However both pollsters tend to have higher Labour voteshare and lower LD voteshares than Yougov or Ipsos Mori for example
https://twitter.com/Adam_IoM/status/1170374866056417280?s=200 -
Sound of music tonight0
