As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
On another note, has a major national newspaper started following Corbyn around in a chicken suit yet? It’s surely a great british tradition (which shifts no votes) that has to be preserved.
Goes back to when parliament had a chicken follow Cromwell around after he turned down the crown the first time. Of course, in setting the tradition the chicken suit did not stop him refusing it again.
Richard Tice on QT seemed to be clear that if we don't leave on 31st October they ( Brexit Party) will be blaming Parliament not Boris?
It seems a bizarre argument by Remainers. Why should it matter whether ti is last week in October or first week in November?
OK, Boris said "Do or Die" & so looks untrustworthy. But, Corby has been calling for an election for just about forever, so it makes him look just as untrustworthy to decline one.
It seems more likely to damage all the politicians.
When an election is 5 weeks away all questions about who asked for an election when will be forgotten,
But what is the point of this delay?
There is going to be an election, and if Boris wins, we will Brexit (whatever Bill is passed before the Election can't bind the successor Government).
We might as well get the election over with.
I think the vote against the election has damaged Corbyn, because his unique selling point was that he was straightforward. He was not a standard politician, not a devious twister like Boris or the LibDems.
He said what he meant. He was down the allotment digging honest earth and making honest jam.
But it now seems he did not say what he meant.
The point of the delay is to force Boris to not exit by October 31st for political reasons.
I understand, but I honestly can't see it damaging him.
Labour, the LDs and Tory rebels disagree, even BXP disagree officially. If you are right, then Boris has set it up beautifully. It's ballsy, I'll give him that.
Johnson resigning would be absolubtely the correct strategy for him. It'd probably also be correct for Corbyn, he gets to walk into Downing Street though he can pass absolubtely nothing.
Big squeeze onto Brexit and Lib Dems/Green. But there looks to be more Brexit than Lib Dem to squeeze in the polls to my eyes right now.
Richard Tice on QT seemed to be clear that if we don't leave on 31st October they ( Brexit Party) will be blaming Parliament not Boris?
It seems a bizarre argument by Remainers. Why should it matter whether ti is last week in October or first week in November? OK, Boris said "Do or Die" & so looks untrustworthy. But, Corby has been calling for an election for just about forever, so it makes him look just as untrustworthy to decline one. It seems more likely to damage all the politicians.
Just the Tory and Labour ones, I think. But they are damaged goods in any case. Totally untrustworthy.
I guess you're right, Labour & Tory politicians lie.
But at least they are not as stupid as the LibDems, who signed a pledge to the National Union of Students before breaking their word.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
I don't think so. You need very deep pockets for long running election campaigns when the election date is anticipated years in advance. My Constituency Labour Party spent about 4 times as much in the long 2015 GE campaign as in the 2017 campaign, simply because in the latter we were constrained by the short campaign limits almost from the word go. So as less per seat will again be spent in a short GE campaign in 2019, the largesse can be spread much more widely amongst a greater number of seats.
On another note, has a major national newspaper started following Corbyn around in a chicken suit yet? It’s surely a great british tradition (which shifts no votes) that has to be preserved.
Goes back to when parliament had a chicken follow Cromwell around after he turned down the crown the first time. Of course, in setting the tradition the chicken suit did not stop him refusing it again.
That's just good old historical fact.
Cromwell of course deserved it, as he never once had the guts to go on the Today Programme or Question Time.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
But if they are returned they will support the conservative party in the HOC apart from no deal brexit
Doesn't that somewhat depend on what those policies might be? I am resigned to Boris winning a 5 year term. The only comfort I take is that the breakdown of the coalition of low tax, Atlanticist, Singapore on Thames bunch, and the high spend, nativist, anti-foreigner nationalist bunch will be brutal. Moreover, it will take place in government, probably with less than 40% support to begin with.
It is their job to moderate the extremes but they will not support Corbyn at all
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
Rory was not the candidate. It is a different election with a set of alternative issues.
Plus. The turnout is not comparable. Fanatical Brexiters and Remainers turn out. See Euro elections. When the turnout is high, the more measured emerge from the shadows.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
Of course you are right, but my god that’s saying something after last time.
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
If you watch QT from 20 or 30 years ago, the panellists almost never interrupt each other.
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
That will and it will be played time and time again
I think this situation is uniquely dangerous for Labour. A failure by Mr. Corbyn to be elected by the HoC after Mr. Johnson’s (seemingly inevitable) removal or resignation from the premiership would leave him looking weak and would offer the LDs a boost. Given they are the party of revoke and the increasing polarisation of the electorate it offers a massive opportunity for them. I believe Ms. Swinson would not be so foolish as to allow him a “free trial” at being PM as this gives him a psychological lift at being viewed as a potential PM.
Similarly Mr. Corbyn can not afford the loss of face of allowing anybody else to be temporary PM. Therefore the best chance for him would be to agree a swift election before his weak position in Parliament is exposed. Oddly enough this means the Leader of the Opposition should “cut and run”.
I'm trying to work out how people think Boris can extract himself from this mess.
He is PM until he recommends to the Queen someone else who has the confidence of the HoC to be PM and the only people able to fulfil that role is probably Teresa May or Kenneth Clarke and if those options might lose a VoNC and cause the Queen embarrassment.
Vonc in own government, followed by prorogation. Guarantees the election.
Only if the VONC is successful
Are labour going to vote that they have confidence in Boris? Lol
Johnson resigning would be absolubtely the correct strategy for him. It'd probably also be correct for Corbyn, he gets to walk into Downing Street though he can pass absolubtely nothing.
He could pass the WA with a Norway PD, subject to a referendum, and have Brexit done or cancelled in 3 months.
No idea what that would do to his polling but it's probably preferable to where he is now.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
I think most voters want stability in their politics. At present the major 2 parties are not offering this so I see a low turnout GE with comparatively higher scores for smaller parties similar to the euro election. Which leads me to wonder if the tiggers may benefit if they tempt some of the Conservative defectors?
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
At the last GE the Brexit Party didn't exist, UKIP were squeezed down to 1.8% and the Lib Dems were still moribund on 7.4%.
I can't see any result but that the two-party share declines compared to 2017 - not that the national result will have much bearing on how well Rory does.
That's going to play over and over in the campaign just like the reclining Mogg
Well it should reassure Labour remainers - don't worry about voting Labour and thinking they might get a deal so good we leave, because the people negotiating it won't campaign to leave anyway. Question is does the loss of Labour leavers harm them enough.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
But if they are returned they will support the conservative party in the HOC apart from no deal brexit
Doesn't that somewhat depend on what those policies might be? I am resigned to Boris winning a 5 year term. The only comfort I take is that the breakdown of the coalition of low tax, Atlanticist, Singapore on Thames bunch, and the high spend, nativist, anti-foreigner nationalist bunch will be brutal. Moreover, it will take place in government, probably with less than 40% support to begin with.
It is their job to moderate the extremes but they will not support Corbyn at all
Corbyn has absolutely nowt to do with it. He will be long gone. Boris looks likely to win a majority on c 33-40% of the vote, with two diametrically opposed factions who agree on nothing other than leaving the EU. Once we have left, what binds them? Where are we heading? What on Earth ARE their policies, other than Leave? Unlike many others on here I have no choice but to live here.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
I think most voters want stability in their politics. At present the major 2 parties are not offering this so I see a low turnout GE with comparatively higher scores for smaller parties similar to the euro election. Which leads me to wonder if the tiggers may benefit if they tempt some of the Conservative defectors?
An interesting reading, It will be fun to see who is right.
The need for stability is the reason why we need an election urgently.
The result of the general election will not by itself lead to stable government, but the chances are high that the loser (Corby or Boris) will not survive the aftermath.
Johnson resigning would be absolubtely the correct strategy for him. It'd probably also be correct for Corbyn, he gets to walk into Downing Street though he can pass absolubtely nothing.
Big squeeze onto Brexit and Lib Dems/Green. But there looks to be more Brexit than Lib Dem to squeeze in the polls to my eyes right now.
Which means it is... 2017 all over again.
Shit.
Maybe this is the scenario Cummings has been planning for.
No Deal : not as bad as the Great Famine. Boris : not Hitler.
For one thing, Hitler probably brushed his teeth.
Interestingly enough, there seems to be anecdotal evidence to suggest that he did in fact not, at least not consistently.
Also interestingly, there seem to be rumours that a prominent spAd to the PM is at times somewhat sloppy with his personal hygiene as well. Is there a pattern to be recognised?
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
I think most voters want stability in their politics.
But Jezza hiding behind the sofa rather than having an election has got absolutely nothing to do with thinking he wiill lose that election no sireeeee!
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
Agreed. But I expect that clip could go rather viral on Facebook etc and that's another matter.
A lot more people will see that clip than watched it live.
I wondered if the Lib Dems might beat Labour in Wainbody. First time it's ever happened I think.
If the LDs are now even beating Labour in the Midlands where they have never polled as well as the South or Scotland or London, then that should terrify Corbyn Labour
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
My guess is that they will all lose. There is plenty of precedent of MPs standing as independents having left the Labour or Tory parties. It is not very encouraging.
Of course, there is a financial incentive to stand, and some of them may only go through the motions.
Rory the Tory is an interesting candidate, but we had a by-election from Penrith South today. It doesn't bode well for him.
I don't see why the result from Penrith is bad for Rory. He'd still be supporting local Conservative council candidates.
I wish Rory well, but I think he will lose.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
I think most voters want stability in their politics.
They have an odd way of demonstrating that.
We have mostly had a duopoly for @100 years. No matter how badly either party governed.
Well safe to say Lady Muck Thornberry crashed and burned on QT.
Was disappointed Layla again got away with saying that the only way Brexit division will stop is to have another refernedum and for people to vote REMAIN - Like why should any Leaver accept that result when Remainers have been remorseless and relentless in not acceptiong 2016?
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
Agreed. But I expect that clip could go rather viral on Facebook etc and that's another matter.
A lot more people will see that clip than watched it live.
I suspect it will be being splashed everywhere online and will be used extensively against Labour in the forthcoming GE
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with someone an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Piers Corbyn is usually the source for the Expresses annual 'coldest winter ever on the way'
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Had there ever been a proper study under tactical voting, whether it happens (at a scale that matters rather than at low scale or randomly), and whether it helps? I sometimes wonder whether it’s one of those things that’s used as a reason after the fact, and we all believe it, but for which there’s limited evidence.
No Deal : not as bad as the Great Famine. Boris : not Hitler.
For one thing, Hitler probably brushed his teeth.
Interestingly enough, there seems to be anecdotal evidence to suggest that he did in fact not, at least not consistently.
Also interestingly, there seem to be rumours that a prominent spAd to the PM is at times somewhat sloppy with his personal hygiene as well. Is there a pattern to be recognised?
I wouldn't like to draw parallels between Boris and Hitler, I was seeking to find differences. I withdraw my comment since I may well have been mistaken.
Maybe we can all agree that Boris has never done anything as bad as Hitler, but that Boris will never achieve anything as good as the one good thing Hitler did: killing Hitler.
Well safe to say Lady Muck Thornberry crashed and burned on QT.
Was disappointed Layla again got away with saying that the only way Brexit division will stop is to have another refernedum and for people to vote REMAIN - Like why should any Leaver accept that result when Remainers have been remorseless and relentless in not acceptiong 2016?
She is a LibDem -- what do you expect other than a dense, glinting corundum of hypocrisy.
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Had there ever been a proper study under tactical voting, whether it happens (at a scale that matters rather than at low scale or randomly), and whether it helps? I sometimes wonder whether it’s one of those things that’s used as a reason after the fact, and we all believe it, but for which there’s limited evidence.
It's been studied by people like John Curtice and David Butler.
I don't think QT has much cut through to the general public. It's a program pored over largely by people who have strong political opinions and are extremely keen to be delighted or outraged about something but are probably not going to change their minds readily.
Agreed. But I expect that clip could go rather viral on Facebook etc and that's another matter.
A lot more people will see that clip than watched it live.
Maybe. But there is a lot of news around at the moment.
But Jezza hiding behind the sofa rather than having an election has got absolutely nothing to do with thinking he wiill lose that election no sireeeee!
Isn`t that really a swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems? Labour are irrelevant.
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Labour are utterly fooked. This election dodging is going to screw them over so badly
Question is after this weekends polls will Labour have to budge on an election on Monday?
I suspect they'll be stuck between a rock and a hard place. If their being chicken has cut through I expect the Tory lead will have grown - despite the clamour here that Boris has had a bad week - making it less likely they'll want to face the voters . . . but inflicting more damage on themselves for running scared.
Idiots! Couldn't happen to a better lot.
Corbyn should have just said to Boris - do you commit this election will happen on 15 Oct, no ifs, no buts and if Boris said yes then vote for the election. Boris couldn't start the election by recommending another date and being shown to be a liar.
Instead the story is Boris wants an election and Corbyn wants to remain in opposition. I honestly never felt anyone could be so stupid as to fall into that trap but he's done it.
But Jezza hiding behind the sofa rather than having an election has got absolutely nothing to do with thinking he wiill lose that election no sireeeee!
Isn`t that really a swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems? Labour are irrelevant.
It is. It does show though that the Lib Dem recovery is not necessarily going to translate into huge gains- they got so badly hollowed out in so many areas 2015 and 2017 they will 'waste' tens of thousands of votes improving but still well behind in many places.
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
Con Majority of 248.
That's get the job done!
That'd send a strong message to the EU for negotiations!
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
My prediction:
Tory 35 Lib Dems 27 Labour 19 BXP 10 SNP 4 Greens 1 UKIP 1
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
My prediction:
Tory 35 Lib Dems 27 Labour 19 BXP 10 SNP 4 Greens 1 UKIP 1
But Jezza hiding behind the sofa rather than having an election has got absolutely nothing to do with thinking he wiill lose that election no sireeeee!
Isn`t that really a swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems? Labour are irrelevant.
Labour has ALWAYS finished second in the ward. Coventry is as close to a two party state {Mostly Labour tbh} as you'll find.
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
If you think Mr. Johnson is having a bad week, look at Antonio Browns agent Drew Rosenhaus.
I've drafted him
Nooooooo! He is a one man disaster zone. Why is he trying to wreck his own career?
No idea, hopefully he can sort it out. He's immensely talented, I drafted him cos I thought he'd sorted his helmet issues out with an endorsement deal ><
As i said yesterday, this screws the Tories as you cannot spend money twice or have people in two places at once. If the Tories can only target say 70 seats with cchq resources and some of these might be defence, the impact of independent MP candidates limits the possibility of net gains further! A GE looks even more pointless....
But if they are returned they will support the conservative party in the HOC apart from no deal brexit
Doesn't that somewhat depend on what those policies might be? I am resigned to Boris winning a 5 year term. The only comfort I take is that the breakdown of the coalition of low tax, Atlanticist, Singapore on Thames bunch, and the high spend, nativist, anti-foreigner nationalist bunch will be brutal. Moreover, it will take place in government, probably with less than 40% support to begin with.
It is their job to moderate the extremes but they will not support Corbyn at all
Corbyn has absolutely nowt to do with it. He will be long gone. Boris looks likely to win a majority on c 33-40% of the vote, with two diametrically opposed factions who agree on nothing other than leaving the EU. Once we have left, what binds them? Where are we heading? What on Earth ARE their policies, other than Leave? Unlike many others on here I have no choice but to live here.
Who knows what will happen, but I still prefer to think the electorate won't go for No Deal once they've thought about it.
If they do, and it goes disastrously, then the political landscape will look very different in a year or two.
Perhaps we'll end up giving all the professional politicians their marching orders, and showing the world the way to sortition!
If you think Mr. Johnson is having a bad week, look at Antonio Browns agent Drew Rosenhaus.
I've drafted him
Nooooooo! He is a one man disaster zone. Why is he trying to wreck his own career?
No idea, hopefully he can sort it out. He's immensely talented, I drafted him cos I thought he'd sorted his helmet issues out with an endorsement deal ><</p>
Such a shame because he actually seems very popular with his team mates and the coaches.
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
Yes. Labour vote falls more in seats where they are in contention to win the seat. In seats where they start with very little, the Labour vote goes down less. You can't lose 20.1% of vote share in seats where you start with only 9.6%.
It is why UNS is such a lousy model in situations where a party's support is imploding.
Comments
That's just good old historical fact.
May was one of a minority of Tory MPs who wanted to extend Article 50, she voted in early March to do so it wasn't forced on her: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/mar/12/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-march-brexit-votes
Big difference.
Big squeeze onto Brexit and Lib Dems/Green. But there looks to be more Brexit than Lib Dem to squeeze in the polls to my eyes right now.
Which means it is... 2017 all over again.
Shit.
3485 votes cast in May so not a bad turn out.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miriam-lord-how-mike-pence-shat-on-the-new-carpet-in-ireland-s-spare-room-1.4006979
But at least they are not as stupid as the LibDems, who signed a pledge to the National Union of Students before breaking their word.
My guess is that when the election comes, the Tory & Labour votes will go up.
Smaller parties & independents will get squeezed in what is looking to be the most divisive and confrontational election for some considerable time.
https://twitter.com/hms__lion/status/1169379745697546241?s=21
No idea what that would do to his polling but it's probably preferable to where he is now.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1169744934443868161?s=21
9% swing from Labour to Conservatives in Wainbody in Coventry.
Labour collapse to 3rd behind the LDs.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1169744934443868161?s=20
I can't see any result but that the two-party share declines compared to 2017 - not that the national result will have much bearing on how well Rory does.
Unlike many others on here I have no choice but to live here.
The need for stability is the reason why we need an election urgently.
The result of the general election will not by itself lead to stable government, but the chances are high that the loser (Corby or Boris) will not survive the aftermath.
Is it swing?
Also interestingly, there seem to be rumours that a prominent spAd to the PM is at times somewhat sloppy with his personal hygiene as well. Is there a pattern to be recognised?
A lot more people will see that clip than watched it live.
- anti-science, and
- anti-Corbyn
It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Was disappointed Layla again got away with saying that the only way Brexit division will stop is to have another refernedum and for people to vote REMAIN - Like why should any Leaver accept that result when Remainers have been remorseless and relentless in not acceptiong 2016?
I suspect it will be being splashed everywhere online and will be used extensively against Labour in the forthcoming GE
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40
Labour 22
Lib Dems 20
BXP 5
SNP 4
Greens, NI and others 9
Maybe we can all agree that Boris has never done anything as bad as Hitler, but that Boris will never achieve anything as good as the one good thing Hitler did: killing Hitler.
https://britainelects.com/2019/09/04/previews-05-sep-2019/
That's get the job done!
Idiots! Couldn't happen to a better lot.
Corbyn should have just said to Boris - do you commit this election will happen on 15 Oct, no ifs, no buts and if Boris said yes then vote for the election. Boris couldn't start the election by recommending another date and being shown to be a liar.
Instead the story is Boris wants an election and Corbyn wants to remain in opposition. I honestly never felt anyone could be so stupid as to fall into that trap but he's done it.
Tory 35
Lib Dems 27
Labour 19
BXP 10
SNP 4
Greens 1
UKIP 1
LAB: 45.6% (-20.1)
LAB: 18.6% (-16.4)
LAB: 9.6% (-1.9)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1169749837295886337?s=21
Libs on 70 seats and Lab around 130.
I could live with that.
Cripes! That is pretty rotten
Leavers are now going Tory (or Brexit Party), Remainers are going LD and Labour are getting squeezed
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
If they do, and it goes disastrously, then the political landscape will look very different in a year or two.
Perhaps we'll end up giving all the professional politicians their marching orders, and showing the world the way to sortition!
It is why UNS is such a lousy model in situations where a party's support is imploding.