That makes my point for me, 35% believed him, nearly as many as disbelieved this obvious lie, and some of the pro-brexit don't-knows probably gave him the benefit of the doubt too.
Wasn't your point that most of the masses thought he was telling the truth? A bit more finely balanced than that.
Well my point was that he ran on it in the campaign, lots of people believed him, many of them voted for him and he won the election. So "we'll negotiate a deal but we may recommend you reject it" isn't in itself an impossible position.
Obviously I'm not denying that Labour are in an uncomfortable position straddling the middle though.
p.s. by the way, is it impossible for Johnson to extend the prorogation after it has begun? Could he not just push it back to after 1st Nov? Presumably not or this would have been discussed.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election, after October 31st.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. I do think the scenario of a VONC is possible
Ironically, now that Clarke is no longer a Tory, it might be easier for Corbyn to support him.
Bring on the government of KC and the Sunshine Gang.
p.s. by the way, is it impossible for Johnson to extend the prorogation after it has begun? Could he not just push it back to after 1st Nov? Presumably not or this would have been discussed.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Labour has a ridiculously solid bedrock of seats at low vote % around 20, far more than the Tories or LD
The silver lining to the black cloud is even in a terrible election Labour has a huge block of seats left, elects another left wing leader who has a much easier time of it whilst Boris deals with everything he has lined up. I don't want to lose the next election but I can see an argument for it being a good one to lose and form a united opposition to a Boris premiership.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election, after October 31st.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. I do think the scenario of a VONC is possible
Ironically, now that Clarke is no longer a Tory, it might be easier for Corbyn to support him.
Bring on the government of KC and the Sunshine Gang.
Yes indeed. I just edited my post to include that and then saw you thought the same.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see off the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
Sorry, I edited this quite a bit so am re-posting it. Mea culpa.
We're seeing several patterns: Labour vote down a lot; Lib Dem vote up a lot; Conservative vote steady in the seats they hold.
We're not seeing the pattern yet that will decide the next election. Will Labour votes switch to Lib Dems in seats they hold to allow the Conservatives to win the seat?
By the way, the other thing is that Ken Clarke is actually quite close to Corbyn on Brexit. Although a remainer, Clarke sees a possible pathway with a soft Brexit around trade and customs. That's probably Corbyn's landing site.
Not that the above matters. That's for a long way down the line, after Ken Clarke has stood down as an MP.
But as a possible route to killing off No Deal Brexit, this has some legs I believe.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Scotland 2015
Nah. The forthcoming election is hard to gauge, but at this stage the most likely outcome is a Labour minority Government. The Conservatives need to win very near to an outright majority to govern, because they can't rely on any party other than the DUP to support them, and at this stage they look likely to rack up more losses in Remain-leaning areas than gains in Leave-leaning ones.
The Tories' target regions are too full of Labour robot and Never-Tory voters. The Brexit Party could conceivably help rather than hinder the Tories by splitting the Labour vote, but Farage vehicles have a track record of doing well in European Elections (where the public feels it has a free hit against the established parties) but flopping in General Elections (where voters largely resume their usual loyalties.)
Sorry, but if Michael Foot in 1983 could hold onto over 200 seats against Thatcher, Corbyn is not going to struggle against BoJo.
Agree. And as far as the Johnsonites are concerned, the chance of the DUP losing 1 or 2 must be a concern. Whether the core of that party will put up for long with Johnson's questionably morality must also be doubtful.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
True, but that is a pretty tightly fought for crown. I don't know if I can survive at this rate of popcorn consumption!
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
Sure, I can see a Welsh Labour meltdown is feasible, but they are not going to break for the Tories.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
And bully. Don't forget bully.
Yep, fair point. A Flashman for our age with none of the redeeming features!
Nah. The forthcoming election is hard to gauge, but at this stage the most likely outcome is a Labour minority Government. The Conservatives need to win very near to an outright majority to govern, because they can't rely on any party other than the DUP to support them, and at this stage they look likely to rack up more losses in Remain-leaning areas than gains in Leave-leaning ones.
The Tories' target regions are too full of Labour robot and Never-Tory voters. The Brexit Party could conceivably help rather than hinder the Tories by splitting the Labour vote, but Farage vehicles have a track record of doing well in European Elections (where the public feels it has a free hit against the established parties) but flopping in General Elections (where voters largely resume their usual loyalties.)
Sorry, but if Michael Foot in 1983 could hold onto over 200 seats against Thatcher, Corbyn is not going to struggle against BoJo.
Of course, this is right. I think (in terms of numbers) the new Parliament will not be too different from old one.
Tories largest party, but short of a majority. LibDems & SNP up a bit. Labour down a bit, Tories about where they are now.
The election is necessary to show the headbangers on both sides that they will have to compromise.
Long term, though, I can't see Labour's rickety constituent parts holding together for another 20 years.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
I wouldn't describe Cambridge as 'safe' for anyone. All three parties have held it in the recent past. Because it's a university town there's a very volatile section of the electorate. Many students who were 'up' in 2017 have gone elsewhere now, and been replaced.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
Sure, I can see a Welsh Labour meltdown is feasible, but they are not going to break for the Tories.
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Labour need to be careful - previous extensions have hurt the Cons as Mrs May asked for them.
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Labour need to be careful - previous extensions have hurt the Cons as Mrs May asked for them.
Boris has done quite the opposite.
The public aren’t as stupid as Jezza hopes.
No. But net net Cons suffer more if it's after deadline day.
The old adage is Cons supporters think Lab stupid, Lab supporters think Cons nasty.
In such a world it is very difficult for Lab supporters to vote Cons.
I think it's more the Cons have confirmed they are nasty so Lab voters won't be switching.
I suspect the election result will be:-
Tories down (Scotland and South) SNP Up Lib Dems Up Labour (slightly down)
however the SNP and Lib Dems gains will outweigh the Labour losses to ensure a Labour minority government can govern. I'm not sure how things will play out but I can see Corbyn being asked to stand aside as Labour lost seats.
Is there not a potential flip side on a post nov election, though(assuming extension is enacted)? Which is that anti-no deal Tories may be more inclined to vote Tory in this scenario?
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Labour need to be careful - previous extensions have hurt the Cons as Mrs May asked for them.
Boris has done quite the opposite.
The public aren’t as stupid as Jezza hopes.
There is a section of the electorate who will reward Johnson for his stance of sticking to a date and taking a decisive position after years of dithering.
Will that be larger than the group who desert him for the many reasons available to either distrust, despise or denigrate him?
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Is there not a potential flip side on a post nov election, though(assuming extension is enacted)? Which is that anti-no deal Tories may be more inclined to vote Tory in this scenario?
How? Boris is going to have to go for No Deal just to avoid Farage kicking him daily.
The old adage is Cons supporters think Lab stupid, Lab supporters think Cons nasty.
In such a world it is very difficult for Lab supporters to vote Cons.
I think it's more the Cons have confirmed they are nasty so Lab voters won't be switching.
I suspect the election result will be:-
Tories down (Scotland and South) SNP Up Lib Dems Up Labour (slightly down)
however the SNP and Lib Dems gains will outweigh the Labour losses to ensure a Labour minority government can govern. I'm not sure how things will play out but I can see Corbyn being asked to stand aside as Labour lost seats.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
In the medium term, the Radical Regionalists. Like Frank Field's Birkenhead Social Justice Party, the "standing up for Scunthorpe and Hartlepool" parties, Radcliffe First in Bury - and similar groupings throughout our rustbelt.
They're all, roughly, Old Labour without Momentum's wokery. They're built on traditional social democrat values and Labour organisational skills, and relate to the real world of our left-behind industrial periphery in a way Farage's TBP can't begin to get its saloon-bar whinger head around.
Probably will never gel in the metropolitan cores (like Liverpool as opposed to Merseyside), where the big questions are whether the LDs can build on the cities' growing youth vote or whether a defanged New New Labour will arise instead. And RR will take time to develop even in the Birkenheads: for the current Brexit crisis, tribal Labour, with the LDs snapping at its heels, will probably remain the dominant political fact in most of England north of Watford.
But Labour's problems are existential, nature abhors a vacuum and it's taken almost a century for the SNP to dominate Scotland.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
Cameron was going about accusing random Muslims of supporting terrorists so I don't know that's it's all that new...
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
I'm glad someone else has made this point. Labour's position is perhaps subtle but as Edmund says the logic is dictated by the clash between direct and representative democracy. It is trying to do the right thing under challenging circumstances.
Is there not a potential flip side on a post nov election, though(assuming extension is enacted)? Which is that anti-no deal Tories may be more inclined to vote Tory in this scenario?
How? Boris is going to have to go for No Deal just to avoid Farage kicking him daily.
Farage has already conceded the point that this ain’t Boris’s extension,
It carry on if you think Labour aren’t going to be hammered for blocking the referendum.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
I wouldn't describe Cambridge as 'safe' for anyone. All three parties have held it in the recent past. Because it's a university town there's a very volatile section of the electorate. Many students who were 'up' in 2017 have gone elsewhere now, and been replaced.
The “and Kilburn” part of the Hampstead constituency is pretty crucial to Labour’s vote.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
"Mogg you disgust me" "Ah so you discussed me - I'm a Trust Fund baby, you can trust me." (With apologies to Lin-Manuel Miranda).
By the way, the other thing is that Ken Clarke is actually quite close to Corbyn on Brexit. Although a remainer, Clarke sees a possible pathway with a soft Brexit around trade and customs. That's probably Corbyn's landing site.
Not that the above matters. That's for a long way down the line, after Ken Clarke has stood down as an MP.
But as a possible route to killing off No Deal Brexit, this has some legs I believe.
Seriously, they should just do it. Corbyn or Clarke in charge, it doesn't matter. They've got the votes, deliver Brexit (or get it rejected in a referendum) and let Con and BXP rage about how they don't want *that* kind of Brexit, or they want a third referendum.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
Cameron was going about accusing random Muslims of supporting terrorists so I don't know that's it's all that new...
You mean the Dr who has been for many many years a Lib Dem activist..thats why the Tories have been so vocal against him because they know he is not impartial.
I'm glad someone else has made this point. Labour's position is perhaps subtle but as Edmund says the logic is dictated by the clash between direct and representative democracy. It is trying to do the right thing under challenging circumstances.
Yup. Unfortunately it's not a great environment to be trying to communicate something *subtle*...
By the way, the other thing is that Ken Clarke is actually quite close to Corbyn on Brexit. Although a remainer, Clarke sees a possible pathway with a soft Brexit around trade and customs. That's probably Corbyn's landing site.
Not that the above matters. That's for a long way down the line, after Ken Clarke has stood down as an MP.
But as a possible route to killing off No Deal Brexit, this has some legs I believe.
Seriously, they should just do it. Corbyn or Clarke in charge, it doesn't matter. They've got the votes, deliver Brexit (or get it rejected in a referendum) and let Con and BXP rage about how they don't want *that* kind of Brexit, or they want a third referendum.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
I'm glad someone else has made this point. Labour's position is perhaps subtle but as Edmund says the logic is dictated by the clash between direct and representative democracy. It is trying to do the right thing under challenging circumstances.
Yup. Unfortunately it's not a great environment to be trying to communicate something *subtle*...
The current Labour position on Brexit is the right one and the about the only way forward. It took them a long time to get there.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
Cameron was going about accusing random Muslims of supporting terrorists so I don't know that's it's all that new...
You mean the Dr who has been for many many years a Lib Dem activist..thats why the Tories have been so vocal against him because they know he is not impartial.
So why did they pick him for the Yellowhammer report?
This was not scaremongering from the usual suspects, it was from the governments own working documents for No Deal.
Will Labour votes switch to Lib Dems in seats they hold to allow the Conservatives to win the seat?
There's no sign of that whatsoever. The Johnsonite party's sole gain for months was in Penrith last night - where it gained from an old-fashioned crypto-Tory pseudo-independent.
My hunch is that in a GE over the next six months, potential Lab to LD switchers will behave VERY tactically in seats held by Labour. Where the Labour candidate is a Remainer, they'll hold their noses and vote for her. Where she's a Leaver, they'll vote LD, Green or whatever will return a Remain member.
Thanks to the Fat Spiv, of course, there'll no no cases where there'll be a Johnsonite Remain candidate. And the Thin Spiv's party will bugger up its campaign, so TBP will get nowhere.
The two Spivs' incompetence will simplify so many things.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.
If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.
Would love a November 5th election.
How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
Boris wants one on a Tuesday, presumably to give him a couple of days to catch his breath before the EU summit.
I agree it would feel very strange to go to the polls on a day other than a Thursday.
I was once involved in a local council by-election held on a Tuesday to avoid a clash with a pantomime at the church hall (which served as a polling station) on the Thursday.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
Yes. I read something along this lines last night about Emily Thornberry. My thoughts were the same: it’s a sensible policy. A sensible Leave deal vs Remain.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
Sure, I can see a Welsh Labour meltdown is feasible, but they are not going to break for the Tories.
A Welsh meltdown is coming.
Yes, but to which party? I don't see BoZo going down well there.
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
I wouldn't describe Cambridge as 'safe' for anyone. All three parties have held it in the recent past. Because it's a university town there's a very volatile section of the electorate. Many students who were 'up' in 2017 have gone elsewhere now, and been replaced.
Labour control the council, took over 50 per cent of the vote in 2017 and have a five figure majority. That's pretty safe.
I think you my be showing your age when you say "All three parties have held it in the recent past."
I'm glad someone else has made this point. Labour's position is perhaps subtle but as Edmund says the logic is dictated by the clash between direct and representative democracy. It is trying to do the right thing under challenging circumstances.
Yup. Unfortunately it's not a great environment to be trying to communicate something *subtle*...
The current Labour position on Brexit is the right one and the about the only way forward. It took them a long time to get there.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
Cameron was going about accusing random Muslims of supporting terrorists so I don't know that's it's all that new...
You mean the Dr who has been for many many years a Lib Dem activist..thats why the Tories have been so vocal against him because they know he is not impartial.
Are oyu seriously suggesting his professional advice was politically biased ?
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
I think the pattern is clear & Labour's vote is slowly eroding. Take the Rhondda, in the 1970s, Labour took ~ 75 per cent of the vote. It is now down to ~ 50 per cent.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
Sure, I can see a Welsh Labour meltdown is feasible, but they are not going to break for the Tories.
A Welsh meltdown is coming.
Yes, but to which party? I don't see BoZo going down well there.
I think it will come in the Welsh Assembly elections first.
Wales is getting poorer & poorer, it has the shittiest education system of W, S NI and E, the worst Health Service.
In the end, Labour can't escape the responsibility for this.
It will probably be a combination of Tories and Plaid Cymru who benefit.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see of the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
Yes, very possible. My guess is however that the temporary PM would be a virtual unknown, probably somebody dull from the backbenches who could not ever be thought of as likely to become permanent.
I have no idea who such a person might be; there would be many candidates.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see of the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
I agree with this. The alliance (as such a government may come to be known) have learned to be quiet to avoid Cummings shock and awe distraction strategies so expect surprises. Might start with one or possibly two cabinet resignations in time for the Sundays.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
I agree with the policy as the logical way to try to remain but give Leavers an alternative, agree it's easy to mock, and mainly feel that a problem is that we're not actually campaigning for it - we're sort of grudgingly admitting it, which looks terrible.
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Give her a break, Topping. Who wouldn't look risible trying to defend that policy?
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
I agree with the policy as the logical way to try to remain but give Leavers an alternative, agree it's easy to mock, and mainly feel that a problem is that we're not actually campaigning for it - we're sort of grudgingly admitting it, which looks terrible.
That’s been Labours problem all along. Corbyn is not motivated about Brexit, but you have to care about the biggest issue of the day. The communication has suffered.
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see of the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
Yes, very possible. My guess is however that the temporary PM would be a virtual unknown, probably somebody dull from the backbenches who could not ever be thought of as likely to become permanent.
I have no idea who such a person might be; there would be many candidates.
I think that’s where it falls over, unless Clarke* or Harman about 200 people fight over each other for it. I don’t doubt that those wanting to do it believe their own hype and think it’s noble, so I do just wonder if Bercow remains a possibility, dragged down from the Speaker’s chair to the Treasury bench?
I do think it helps the cause of a later Tory majority in the end though.
*When did the left decide to forget what an unpleasant Thatcherite failure he was in office?
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
By the way, the other thing is that Ken Clarke is actually quite close to Corbyn on Brexit. Although a remainer, Clarke sees a possible pathway with a soft Brexit around trade and customs. That's probably Corbyn's landing site.
Not that the above matters. That's for a long way down the line, after Ken Clarke has stood down as an MP.
But as a possible route to killing off No Deal Brexit, this has some legs I believe.
Seriously, they should just do it. Corbyn or Clarke in charge, it doesn't matter. They've got the votes, deliver Brexit (or get it rejected in a referendum) and let Con and BXP rage about how they don't want *that* kind of Brexit, or they want a third referendum.
The old adage is Cons supporters think Lab stupid, Lab supporters think Cons nasty.
In such a world it is very difficult for Lab supporters to vote Cons.
I think it's more the Cons have confirmed they are nasty so Lab voters won't be switching.
I suspect the election result will be:-
Tories down (Scotland and South) SNP Up Lib Dems Up Labour (slightly down)
however the SNP and Lib Dems gains will outweigh the Labour losses to ensure a Labour minority government can govern. I'm not sure how things will play out but I can see Corbyn being asked to stand aside as Labour lost seats.
Hmmm....that might work quite well. Now, how do we vote for it?
Thornberry risible yesterday on QT as we all can agree but there is still only one game in town for Lab. Delay until after Oct 31 and split the leave vote. They will lose their own voters as we have seen but Cons will lose more.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Give her a break, Topping. Who wouldn't look risible trying to defend that policy?
Maybe not a bad thing. Sometimes you have to hear something said out loud befre you realise quite how foolish it sounds! If Jeremy hasn't got a pretty thick ear by now I'd be very surprised.
The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.
If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.
Would love a November 5th election.
How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
Boris wants one on a Tuesday, presumably to give him a couple of days to catch his breath before the EU summit.
I agree it would feel very strange to go to the polls on a day other than a Thursday.
I was once involved in a local council by-election held on a Tuesday to avoid a clash with a pantomime at the church hall (which served as a polling station) on the Thursday.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
Yes. I read something along this lines last night about Emily Thornberry. My thoughts were the same: it’s a sensible policy. A sensible Leave deal vs Remain.
ANY leave deal is likely to be virtually indistinguishable from May’s deal. Because in legally binding terms May’s deal is just the Withdrawal Agreement, not the future relationship. That’s what’s so nonsensical about it being rejected by any “sensible” person advocating leave with a deal. If you support leave you should have supported the WA, and left the direction in future negotiations to the British people as expressed through the General Election ballot box.
We are in the mess we are in because everyone ignored the fact that to get a soft Brexit you first need to reconcile the majority of remainers to the idea that we have left and get them properly involved in influencing the future. And the only way to do that is to actually leave aka the WA.
English xenophobe gets upset at hearing the truth.
Gobby scot trying to stop people hearing the answer
Given limited access the Scots get to put forward their point from Government to their tame media they need to push it. Maybe if their English overlords treated them as equals they would not need to. Just how I would expect a xenophobic Little Englander to respond though.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
He's apologised, hasn't he?
The doctor made a specific point. Jacob Rees-Mogg's only response was abuse, which he escalated to libellous abuse. He's apologised now and yet he still hasn't answered the original point.
The man is manifestly unfit to be a Cabinet minister.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
Disagree. Few pictures or ideas have cut-through. That one does.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
Congratulations, Charles. You have just won Worst Post of the Year Award 2019.
I can only assume you don't pay any attention to social media or listen to the news or talk to down-to-earth people. As SO suggested, this picture has painted a thousand words. It is all over social media like Facebook and Twitter. It is being endlessly recycled with new viral banners and slogans. It was even projected onto Edinburgh Castle last night with a then viral thread.
It really is the MOST godawful picture. It's probably worse than Milliband's bacon sarny.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
He's apologised, hasn't he?
The doctor made a specific point. Jacob Rees-Mogg's only response was abuse, which he escalated to libellous abuse. He's apologised now and yet he still hasn't answered the original point.
The man is manifestly unfit to be a Cabinet minister.
Disagree. He sounds like he would make a very valuable contribution to the HoC.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
Disagree. Few pictures or ideas have cut-through. That one does.
Why strike through the Unionist, please? Murdo Fraser hasn't so far as I know achieved his long-term ambition for separatism in the right-wing parties.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
I agree with the policy as the logical way to try to remain but give Leavers an alternative, agree it's easy to mock, and mainly feel that a problem is that we're not actually campaigning for it - we're sort of grudgingly admitting it, which looks terrible.
Labour aren't bothering to make a case for their Brexit position (Cycle.Free's elevator pitch point yesterday). I think a case can be made, but they need to make it.
In normal times Jacob Rees-Mogg would be sacked for libelling a doctor on the floor of the House of Commons. It’s not even being suggested, which shows how crazy politics is just now.
He's apologised, hasn't he?
The doctor made a specific point. Jacob Rees-Mogg's only response was abuse, which he escalated to libellous abuse. He's apologised now and yet he still hasn't answered the original point.
The man is manifestly unfit to be a Cabinet minister.
That hardly distinguishes him from the bulk of the cabinet.
The poll average in Scotland Curtice reports still puts the SCons on 20%, still above the 15% they got in 2015 with the SNP on 40%, still below the 50% they got in 2015.
The news is worst for SLab who have fallen to just 15% in the latest poll from 24% in 2015 and 27% in 2017 while the LDs are up to 12% in Scotland from 7% in 2017
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
I was watching at the time and at first the camera was fixed on Caroline Lucas as she went into what I thought was a typical though well articulated rant. Then the camera switched to JRM and suddenly you could see her point.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
By 'normal' do you mean of a similar educational background ?
The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.
If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.
Would love a November 5th election.
How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
Boris wants one on a Tuesday, presumably to give him a couple of days to catch his breath before the EU summit.
I agree it would feel very strange to go to the polls on a day other than a Thursday.
I was once involved in a local council by-election held on a Tuesday to avoid a clash with a pantomime at the church hall (which served as a polling station) on the Thursday.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
Yes. I read something along this lines last night about Emily Thornberry. My thoughts were the same: it’s a sensible policy. A sensible Leave deal vs Remain.
ANY leave deal is likely to be virtually indistinguishable from May’s deal. Because in legally binding terms May’s deal is just the Withdrawal Agreement, not the future relationship. That’s what’s so nonsensical about it being rejected by any “sensible” person advocating leave with a deal. If you support leave you should have supported the WA, and left the direction in future negotiations to the British people as expressed through the General Election ballot box.
We are in the mess we are in because everyone ignored the fact that to get a soft Brexit you first need to reconcile the majority of remainers to the idea that we have left and get them properly involved in influencing the future. And the only way to do that is to actually leave aka the WA.
Spot on. Give it another go. Stephen Kinnock is it's sole spokesman so far as I can see.
Why strike through the Unionist, please? Murdo Fraser hasn't so far as I know achieved his long-term ambition for separatism in the right-wing parties.
The central party is clearly turning into an English Nationalist Party - one I’d have as much affection for as their Scottish Nationalist equivalent.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s exposure as a privileged, entitled, lightweight, thin-skinned coward who is totally out of his depth is perhaps the greatest political pleasure this week has delivered.
Weirdly I think that has cut through more than Johnson's woes. The picture of him lounging on the Treasury bench will I think haunt the Tories for a long time. Many of us have been screaming for some time that Brexit is a project of a privileged elite, and this picture is physical evidence of that proposition. A picture tells a thousand words, indeed.
Quite
Nah. Cheers up the activists and the already prejudiced but no one normal cares
Congratulations, Charles. You have just won Worst Post of the Year Award 2019.
I can only assume you don't pay any attention to social media or listen to the news or talk to down-to-earth people. As SO suggested, this picture has painted a thousand words. It is all over social media like Facebook and Twitter. It is being endlessly recycled with new viral banners and slogans. It was even projected onto Edinburgh Castle last night with a then viral thread.
It really is the MOST godawful picture. It's probably worse than Milliband's bacon sarny.
Can only talk anecdotally but the only people who seem really fired up are the committed types who didn't like JRM and / or Brexit generally. Those who I would call generally apolitical don't really care.
Also, re social media, bear in mind <15% of the UK population uses Twitter.
Why strike through the Unionist, please? Murdo Fraser hasn't so far as I know achieved his long-term ambition for separatism in the right-wing parties.
The central party is clearly turning into an English Nationalist Party - one I’d have as much affection for as their Scottish Nationalist equivalent.
One day you’ll be in the ditch, flies buzzin’ around your eyes Blood on your saddle
Idiot wind, blowing through the flowers on your tomb Blowing through the curtains in your room Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth You’re an idiot, babe It’s a wonder that you still know how to breathe...
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. ...
I don't follow that. Surely the only reason he wants Brexit to happen in October is that he thinks it would be political suicide for him if it doesn't. Committing political suicide to avoid political suicide doesn't make sense.
After all, it's not as though he really believes in Brexit, except as a political expedient.
Is there not a potential flip side on a post nov election, though(assuming extension is enacted)? Which is that anti-no deal Tories may be more inclined to vote Tory in this scenario?
How? Boris is going to have to go for No Deal just to avoid Farage kicking him daily.
Boris will refuse to extend, as Peston reported yesterday he will either stay in post and challenge the Commons to impeach him rather than ask Brussels for an extension or resign and let Corbyn do the extension and thus destroy Labour in Labour Leave seats for betraying the Brexit vote as Swinson immediately VONCs Corbyn straight after extension to force a general election
Comments
Obviously I'm not denying that Labour are in an uncomfortable position straddling the middle though.
Bring on the government of KC and the Sunshine Gang.
This is a massive change.
Sorry, I edited this quite a bit so am re-posting it. Mea culpa.
We're not seeing the pattern yet that will decide the next election. Will Labour votes switch to Lib Dems in seats they hold to allow the Conservatives to win the seat?
Not that the above matters. That's for a long way down the line, after Ken Clarke has stood down as an MP.
But as a possible route to killing off No Deal Brexit, this has some legs I believe.
The lesson of Scotland is that the decline is not linear. The end came swiftly.
Labour's problem is that Hampstead is a safer seat than the Rhondda, Cambridge is safer than Pontypridd.
The disparate parts of Labour are so far apart that it is like an large unstable bubble waiting to break into two.
As the Chinese general would say: pretty soon no more Conservatives.
Tories largest party, but short of a majority. LibDems & SNP up a bit. Labour down a bit, Tories about where they are now.
The election is necessary to show the headbangers on both sides that they will have to compromise.
Long term, though, I can't see Labour's rickety constituent parts holding together for another 20 years.
In such a world it is very difficult for Lab supporters to vote Cons.
Boris has done quite the opposite.
The public aren’t as stupid as Jezza hopes.
I suspect the election result will be:-
Tories down (Scotland and South)
SNP Up
Lib Dems Up
Labour (slightly down)
however the SNP and Lib Dems gains will outweigh the Labour losses to ensure a Labour minority government can govern. I'm not sure how things will play out but I can see Corbyn being asked to stand aside as Labour lost seats.
Will that be larger than the group who desert him for the many reasons available to either distrust, despise or denigrate him?
It carry on if you think Labour aren’t going to be hammered for blocking the referendum.
"Ah so you discussed me -
I'm a Trust Fund baby, you can trust me."
(With apologies to Lin-Manuel Miranda).
This was not scaremongering from the usual suspects, it was from the governments own working documents for No Deal.
It was slander.
I think you my be showing your age when you say "All three parties have held it in the recent past."
Wales is getting poorer & poorer, it has the shittiest education system of W, S NI and E, the worst Health Service.
In the end, Labour can't escape the responsibility for this.
It will probably be a combination of Tories and Plaid Cymru who benefit.
I have no idea who such a person might be; there would be many candidates.
I do think it helps the cause of a later Tory majority in the end though.
*When did the left decide to forget what an unpleasant Thatcherite failure he was in office?
https://amp.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/sep/05/tinker-tailor-soldier-spy-40-years-on-alec-guinness?__twitter_impression=true
We are in the mess we are in because everyone ignored the fact that to get a soft Brexit you first need to reconcile the majority of remainers to the idea that we have left and get them properly involved in influencing the future. And the only way to do that is to actually leave aka the WA.
Just how I would expect a xenophobic Little Englander to respond though.
https://twitter.com/thequentinletts/status/1169850394375098368
The man is manifestly unfit to be a Cabinet minister.
UnionistParty:https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1169864583118385152?s=20
I can only assume you don't pay any attention to social media or listen to the news or talk to down-to-earth people. As SO suggested, this picture has painted a thousand words. It is all over social media like Facebook and Twitter. It is being endlessly recycled with new viral banners and slogans. It was even projected onto Edinburgh Castle last night with a then viral thread.
It really is the MOST godawful picture. It's probably worse than Milliband's bacon sarny.
It's a killer.
https://www.indy100.com/article/jacob-rees-mogg-lying-down-led-by-donkeys-edinburgh-castle-projection-9092791
Rees-Mog, not so much.
45,000 views Charles and counting
The news is worst for SLab who have fallen to just 15% in the latest poll from 24% in 2015 and 27% in 2017 while the LDs are up to 12% in Scotland from 7% in 2017
Believe me, it's worse than that bacon sarny!
But I suppose we should look on the bright side.
Boris is in Scotland today.
What could possibly go wrong?
Also, re social media, bear in mind <15% of the UK population uses Twitter.
One day you’ll be in the ditch, flies buzzin’ around your eyes
Blood on your saddle
Idiot wind, blowing through the flowers on your tomb
Blowing through the curtains in your room
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth
You’re an idiot, babe
It’s a wonder that you still know how to breathe...
After all, it's not as though he really believes in Brexit, except as a political expedient.