politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker
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More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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CORBYNS SURRENDER BILL 320
WE ARE NOT AT WAR BUT LETS CALL IT THAT 310
or something like that0 -
Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Reverse SDP ferretBlack_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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PM of a Remainer Government maybe.williamglenn said:If Theresa May votes with the rebels she could become a candidate to be PM of a GNU.
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But she'd want to implement her withdrawal agreement and everyone on all sides of the House voted against it three times.williamglenn said:If Theresa May votes with the rebels she could become a candidate to be PM of a GNU.
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A post which puts some stress on my policy of not calling people stupid on the internet.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
Can you not think of any pro-Remain individual of recent years who exactly fits all of that description (except the bit about jrm, which is false)? If you can't, try to imagine the existence of someone like that. What would his existence do to your argument, do you think?0 -
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Ah good spot. Yes, you're right - first Thursday in May if fifth year is indeed the rule as legislated.justin124 said:
Not unless the FTPA is repealed. Indeed any Parliament elected this Autumn will be dissolved at the end of March 2024 for an election to take place in the first week of May that year.Thus, it will be a 4.5 - rather than a 5 - year Parliament!Noo said:If we end up with an election in October, will all future elections happen in October? Assuming, of course, that whichever party forms the government are stable enough to see out their five years.
Weird if autumn elections become the new normal.0 -
I thought you'd started about 10am to be fair!Gallowgate said:Well I’ve opened the Rioja.
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Into how many fragments?Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.0 -
I see no path to her WA being approved, but I think the funniest outcome there would be is if Boris remains PM but somehow passed her WA, then loses an election. All that effort he put into trying to undermine her, only to have to pass her deal, then get punished for it, it would be great.GIN1138 said:
But she'd want to implement her withdrawal agreement and everyone on all sides of the House voted against it three times.williamglenn said:If Theresa May votes with the rebels she could become a candidate to be PM of a GNU.
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The Brexit Party are holding an election rally.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/11689473257436364810 -
I’ve actually been at work however I’m currently working my notice period so have a bit of downtime...GIN1138 said:0 -
The Tories started splitting under Cameron this is simply the end gameBlack_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!0 -
I think it tells you more about how useless Farage is at FPTP elections.rcs1000 said:
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
The Conservatives know how to fight a FPTP election and would have the data and organisation etc that Farage lacks.0 -
Thats simply repeaqting the mistakes Camron made. To survive the Tories need to be a broad churchPhilip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!1 -
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.0 -
Don't the LDs need to be careful not to be overtaken by former Tories? Even atypical Tories, that many en masse might fundamentally change the parliamentary party in ways the membership won't like.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!0 -
It was said at the time that Farage was third in a two horse race.rcs1000 said:
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
He's an interestingly awful candidate at the same thing me as being an undeniably successful national politician. It's almost as if as soon as people see him close up they realise he's a...0 -
Gallowgate said:
Well I’ve opened the Rioja.
Bastard. I’m having a dry week. Hard to stick to it!0 -
Went to the bodega this morning and forgot to take it out of the car I now have some excellent rose wine vinegar after eight hours at 40 cGIN1138 said:0 -
And lose them all.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!0 -
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.0 -
The tories have been splitting for much longer than that. It's just that since 2010 and the rise of UKIP it has had a wedge driving it to split quickerAlanbrooke said:
The Tories started splitting under Cameron this is simply the end gameBlack_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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I suspect Mr T, that if you and I were at a cricket match we would be enjoying each other's company.Philip_Thompson said:
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
At a political rally...... maybe not so much!0 -
My word, this is as embarrassing a Prime Ministerial response as I have ever seen. He is utterly clueless.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/11689070879985868850 -
The Tories were a broad church in 1993 but the Eurosceptics still needed to respect the whip on confidence motions.Alanbrooke said:
Thats simply repeaqting the mistakes Camron made. To survive the Tories need to be a broad churchPhilip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!
If todays Bastards don't want to respect the Tory whip then they need to go. Once we are over the hump of Brexit we can put it behind us and become a broad church but the first rule for MPs on confidence motions is you respect the party or you're not a part of it anymore. Not unreasonable.0 -
Conservative support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Once the scales fall from people's eyes and they see what a loser Boris is some will run to Farage and others will fade away but the centre and centre-left majority will be left to take over.Richard_Tyndall said:
And lose them all.
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It's possible. The centrist/continuity Remain/continuity May faction (whatever you choose to label it) could simply disappear. I'm not at all convinced that there's a big electoral space to be occupied, at present, by a British version of the CDU (that's had about five minutes to organise.)kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.0 -
It was the over 50s - working class, middle class and upper class that won the referendum for Leave.noneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it
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Something like 1 in 3 tory voters are still original remainers. It would be most surprising if the majority of those can be kept on board when even Theresa May is not considered welcome. Abstentions galore at best.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!
The idea the Tory party can be the Brexit party, kick out all remain leaning MPs but retain the support of the remain leaning voters is bizarre. We are in strange times so maybe they can pull it off, but Im very happy to back the no overall majority still which reflects the divided country.0 -
He's talking awfully quickly. I know he has a generally entertaining, rapid fire style, but that was awfully bumbling.SouthamObserver said:My word, this is as embarrassing a Prime Ministerial response as I have ever seen. He is utterly clueless.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/11689070879985868850 -
It seems like Richard Nabavi was right.
Boris Johnson is even worse than Theresa May.0 -
🏏🍻😎OldKingCole said:
I suspect Mr T, that if you and I were at a cricket match we would be enjoying each other's company.Philip_Thompson said:
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
At a political rally...... maybe not so much!0 -
There could be a complete realignment of voters. Once the inevitable election campaign starts the Lib Dems could be perfectly placed to pick up centre left and centre right voters. All they need is a clear manifesto.stodge said:
Conservative support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Once the scales fall from people's eyes and they see what a loser Boris is some will run to Farage and others will fade away but the centre and centre-left majority will be left to take over.Richard_Tyndall said:
And lose them all.0 -
I see May is sat next to Ken.SouthamObserver said:My word, this is as embarrassing a Prime Ministerial response as I have ever seen. He is utterly clueless.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/11689070879985868850 -
One large lump and several little pieces, by the look of it. We've had various retirements, a couple of defections to the Lib Dems, some MPs may try to defend as independents. It's not impossible that some might try to organise into another new party, but there's no sign of that yet.Chris said:
Into how many fragments?Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
To be fair 99% of the WA is good to gowilliamglenn said:
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A working barrister who voted Remain is on no definition working classnoneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it0 -
People seem to like it, they did when he was mayor. Theres a certain fatigue with polished pretty boys like Blair and Cameron, it's why May had some personal support despite being shite, she was awkward and genuine. Boris is not genuine but he has personality and bumbling awkwardness that bloke down pub can chuckle atkle4 said:
He's talking awfully quickly. I know he has a generally entertaining, rapid fire style, but that was awfully bumbling.SouthamObserver said:My word, this is as embarrassing a Prime Ministerial response as I have ever seen. He is utterly clueless.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1168907087998586885
It's the Trump, appeal behind the radar, approach0 -
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
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He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
Two pints of IPA?Philip_Thompson said:
🏏🍻😎OldKingCole said:
I suspect Mr T, that if you and I were at a cricket match we would be enjoying each other's company.Philip_Thompson said:
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
At a political rally...... maybe not so much!0 -
There's not the slightest chance that he or anyone else in Westminster understand game theory, however they will act instinctively in certain ways. Some of that might reflect theory, but just by accident.rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
I like the chess fork analogy.
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All these UK threads just repeat remain /leave positions.. Nothing has changed, nothing will change, even if we leave... the same arguments will perpetuate indefinitely..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7MQrL_ABE00 -
Boris has a 10% poll lead tonightAnabobazina said:It seems like Richard Nabavi was right.
Boris Johnson is even worse than Theresa May.0 -
the 3 month extension is simply bonkers, nothing much can be achieved since there appears to be little consensus among the parties, make it a reasonable year and youll have a very sour electorate, Parlaiment need to be dissolved, fresh elections held and maybe even if it still remains hung they will all be able to save ome face and say fresh start,ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Whether the EU will put up with this nonsense is anyone s guess.0 -
That will take us through the first four batting partnerships.OldKingCole said:
Two pints of IPA?Philip_Thompson said:
🏏🍻😎OldKingCole said:
I suspect Mr T, that if you and I were at a cricket match we would be enjoying each other's company.Philip_Thompson said:
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
At a political rally...... maybe not so much!0 -
Needs support from Paul Merton and Ian Hislop to make it remotely bearable.SouthamObserver said:My word, this is as embarrassing a Prime Ministerial response as I have ever seen. He is utterly clueless.
0 -
Yes, its back to the eighties, only with smaller hairstyles...kle4 said:
Don't the LDs need to be careful not to be overtaken by former Tories? Even atypical Tories, that many en masse might fundamentally change the parliamentary party in ways the membership won't like.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!0 -
wheres the shoulder pads ?Foxy said:
Yes, its back to the eighties, only with smaller hairstyles...kle4 said:
Don't the LDs need to be careful not to be overtaken by former Tories? Even atypical Tories, that many en masse might fundamentally change the parliamentary party in ways the membership won't like.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless the defectors go to the Lib Dems and campaign with them there will be no split, just an amputation. The undemocratic losers who can't accept they lost the referendum will be gone - and fingers crossed May will reveal she was one of them all along which would explain a lot about the last three wasted years.kle4 said:
Unless a new faction is formed which can wreck the new Tory (Brexit Party) faction, that larger rump led by Boris could still yet win an election though, even with a split.Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Be odd if 35+ do go to the Lib Dems and stand again under their label, the Lib Dems could go into an election with nearly as many MPs as they had during the Coalition!0 -
This is war, absolutely.blueblue said:
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
Every second of every minute of every hour of every day must be focused on fighting the diehard Remainers until Brexit is delivered, no matter what the cost0 -
Unlike public schoolboys I am not interested in someones political class. Economically active vs inactive explains the referendum vote fine.HYUFD said:
A working barrister who voted Remain is on no definition working classnoneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it0 -
I don’t follow? Boris doesn’t have to rule out no deal. He observes that “they” have done that in law and seeks a majority to overturn it. Ultimately, the opposition surely has to let that election happen.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.1 -
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.blueblue said:
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.0 -
Especially if they are being told to expect to make no progress on anything whilst we are membersAlanbrooke said:
the 3 month extension is simply bonkers, nothing much can be achieved since there appears to be little consensus among the parties, make it a reasonable year and youll have a very sour electorate, Parlaiment need to be dissolved, fresh elections held and maybe even if it still remains hung they will all be able to save ome face and say fresh start,ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Whether the EU will put up with this nonsense is anyone s guess.0 -
56% of 45 to 54 year olds also voted LeaveSouthamObserver said:
It was the over 50s - working class, middle class and upper class that won the referendum for Leave.noneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum0 -
When you refer to "one large lump" ... ?Black_Rook said:
One large lump and several little pieces, by the look of it. We've had various retirements, a couple of defections to the Lib Dems, some MPs may try to defend as independents. It's not impossible that some might try to organise into another new party, but there's no sign of that yet.Chris said:
Into how many fragments?Black_Rook said:
More like the Conservative Party is in the process of splitting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
0 -
What time is the vote?0
-
There was never going to be a deal, and even if he get a deal, it would be voted down, and even if he got a deal through Parliament, BXP would have surged and wiped out the Tories at the next election anyway. What you're talking about could never have worked.kle4 said:
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.blueblue said:
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.0 -
He appears to have looked several moves ahead but hasn’t spotted the knight on the flank trapping the king.rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.0 -
On Referendum day we had a big Remain poster up. And we had the local cleaners in. My wife asked the two thirty (I think) year olds whether they'd voted yet.SouthamObserver said:
It was the over 50s - working class, middle class and upper class that won the referendum for Leave.noneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a TSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it
Yes, they said, but not the way you did!
Meanwhile I was handing out pre-Remain leaflets in the local market. A delivery driver pulled up, dropped off in one of the market place shops. 'Have you voted' I said. 'Yes, but not you're way'. And before I could argue he was back in his van and off.
Often thought about that!0 -
JRM going for a cricketing metaphor of his own.0
-
We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.0
-
No contemptuous arrogant patronising liberal elitists who refused to listen to the people and still don't explains the result perfectlynoneoftheabove said:
Unlike public schoolboys I am not interested in someones political class. Economically active vs inactive explains the referendum vote fine.HYUFD said:
A working barrister who voted Remain is on no definition working classnoneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it1 -
It actually sets up Boris' Parliament Vs The People election better than Boris could himself...ab195 said:
I don’t follow? Boris doesn’t have to rule out no deal. He observes that “they” have done that in law and seeks a majority to overturn it. Ultimately, the opposition surely has to let that election happen.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
is that a bad thing ?rottenborough said:We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
0 -
So if Boris sets 14 Oct and agrees any amendment to this date would require majority support of the party leaders of parties currently represented at parliament I can't see how labour vote against without losing buckets of support0
-
If you want £10 on the result, I think it might be fun.Philip_Thompson said:
I think it tells you more about how useless Farage is at FPTP elections.rcs1000 said:
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
The Conservatives know how to fight a FPTP election and would have the data and organisation etc that Farage lacks.
There are lots of combos at work. Will he get shunted off to the Lords as ex-Speakers are want to be? If not, who will stand against him? When will the election be?
Bercow wins Buckingham at the next General Election, I win.
Anybody else, you win.0 -
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?kle4 said:
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.blueblue said:
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party1 -
Theyre counting on the tribal vote.dyedwoolie said:So if Boris sets 14 Oct and agrees any amendment to this date would require majority support of the party leaders of parties currently represented at parliament I can't see how labour vote against without losing buckets of support
0 -
Knights on the rim are dimAnabobazina said:
He appears to have looked several moves ahead but hasn’t spotted the knight on the flank trapping the king.rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.0 -
Aussie or Brit? Then it's your round!Philip_Thompson said:
That will take us through the first four batting partnerships.OldKingCole said:
Two pints of IPA?Philip_Thompson said:
🏏🍻😎OldKingCole said:
I suspect Mr T, that if you and I were at a cricket match we would be enjoying each other's company.Philip_Thompson said:
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
At a political rally...... maybe not so much!0 -
The Tory party has a 10% lead in tonight's poll, Corbyn Labour is polling worse than under Foot, the Boris Tories are fine thanksrottenborough said:We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
0 -
JRM too pleased with himself by half. And subconsciously modelling his style on John Bercow, of all people).0
-
Quite easily - you point out that Boris is untrustworthy...dyedwoolie said:So if Boris sets 14 Oct and agrees any amendment to this date would require majority support of the party leaders of parties currently represented at parliament I can't see how labour vote against without losing buckets of support
0 -
2015 Scotland redux in the north and Midlands perhapsAlanbrooke said:
Theyre counting on the tribal vote.dyedwoolie said:So if Boris sets 14 Oct and agrees any amendment to this date would require majority support of the party leaders of parties currently represented at parliament I can't see how labour vote against without losing buckets of support
0 -
It's like trying to decipher Finnegans Wake at times.HYUFD said:
No contemptuous arrogant patronising liberal elitists who refused to listen to the people and still don't explains the result perfectlynoneoftheabove said:
Unlike public schoolboys I am not interested in someones political class. Economically active vs inactive explains the referendum vote fine.HYUFD said:
A working barrister who voted Remain is on no definition working classnoneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it0 -
Does that cut off Boris' knees? Boris can say with a majority he will repeal the law.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
Farage said the price of a pact would be Boris 100% committing to No Deal, not even trying for a deal.GIN1138 said:
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
That's why the act has the agreement of party leaders bit attached.... meaning he cannot legally alter the date by statute without majority support of the other leaderseek said:
Quite easily - you point out that Boris is untrustworthy...dyedwoolie said:So if Boris sets 14 Oct and agrees any amendment to this date would require majority support of the party leaders of parties currently represented at parliament I can't see how labour vote against without losing buckets of support
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It's too good to be true. I hope it happens.Alanbrooke said:
is that a bad thing ?rottenborough said:We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
And then the Labour Party.
And then we get PR and every election will consist of 7-8 parties offering nuanced retail politics.
And we have an end to the internal party squabbles and idiotic psychodramas that have been a growing feature of our politics for decades.0 -
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?0
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I see there are plenty of chess analogies tonightblueblue said:
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.kle4 said:
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
0 -
As an aside, the Markit PMIs are sub 50 now in:
the US
the UK
the Eurozone
Canada
Mexico
Japan
China is marginally above.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.0 -
No.ralphmalph said:Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
0 -
Now 56% of 48 to 57 year olds....HYUFD said:
56% of 45 to 54 year olds also voted LeaveSouthamObserver said:
It was the over 50s - working class, middle class and upper class that won the referendum for Leave.noneoftheabove said:
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum0 -
Possibly.rottenborough said:We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
Although keep in mind the numbers voting against Boris actually quite small and consist mostly of the old guard.
The direction of the Tory Party has been clear since Thatchers Bruges speech so in a lot of ways this is a final roll of the dice of the EU-Loving Old Guard.
Once they're out the Party tonight the Tories will almost certainly coalesce around whatever it is they become under Boris (or whoever follows him)
Tonight is the final act of a drama that began with the knifing of Mrs Thacther.0 -
does anyone believe the Chinese one ?rcs1000 said:As an aside, the Markit PMIs are sub 50 now in:
the US
the UK
the Eurozone
Canada
Mexico
Japan
China is marginally above.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.0 -
Farage will read the runes and I'm sure will be 'sadly unable' to field candidates everywhere. Notably having trouble in Tory leave seats and tight marginalsDanny565 said:
Farage said the price of a pact would be Boris 100% committing to No Deal, not even trying for a deal.GIN1138 said:
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.kle4 said:
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.ab195 said:
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.Alanbrooke said:
has much changed ?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.Anabobazina said:
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.Yorkcity said:Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.0 -
No. Karl Marx defined the working class as individuals who sell their labour power for wages and who do not own the means of production. Before Marx, in medieval and early modern Europe, a lawyer, craftsman and peasant were all considered to be part of the same social unit, a third estate of people who were neither aristocrats nor church officials. So there Is at least one definition of working class that would include employed lawyers. It’s a more recent sociological approach that defines class according to income levels or type of wage labour.HYUFD said:
A working barrister who voted Remain is on no definition working class0
