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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories jump 4, UKIP and LDs each drop 3 in post-budget Survation poll for Mail on Sunday
The pollster, which pioneered prompting for Farage’s party, has traditionally had the biggest shares for UKIP. That’s down 3 to 15% while the Tories jump 4. The LDs also see a 3% drop.
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Comments
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Danny Alexander.
First on merit.0 -
I wouldn't take this too seriously unless similar results occur with other pollsters.0
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- "Not quite cross-over but nearly there"
Exquisite timing for the Yes campaign.0 -
Greetings mortals, been away for a few months/years. Not sure if it has been seen but there is an Online Populus showing on their website taken 19-20 March showing
Lab 38
Con 34
Kippers 12
Lib Dem 90 -
It's all falling nicely into place...0
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Up four.
Knock on the door.0 -
Which would appear to support the hollowing out of the liberal/kipper vote shown by survation in favour of the establishment0
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My recollection is that Survation has never produced polls that favourable to the Tories so this was a surprise.The pogo pollster will probably show a growing Labour lead.0
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No excuses now...Stuart_Dickson said:- "Not quite cross-over but nearly there"
Exquisite timing for the Yes campaign.0 -
This isn't a slight on Survation, but can anybody link me to how accurate the major polling companies were in the lead up the last election?0
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Whether or not this particular poll is accurate there has been a narrowing of the Labour lead in recent times and it wouldn't be surprising if the Tories got a bump in the polls from the extra attention and goodies coming out of the Budget.
The bingo thing, while fun for Lefties, didn't have the same potency as the pasty tax because it was about giving money not taking it away. It does highlight how careful the Conservatives need to be about their messaging, they may not get off so easy in future.
Welcome back dyedwoolie (dyedinsomewoolsomewhere?)0 -
I reckon if we were seeing a crossover poll this evening, someone would be tweeting big hints by now.0
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It's just one poll. It's roughly what I was expecting, but beware of confirmation bias.0
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Welcome back, Mr. Woolie
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Merci and oui, c'est moiFreggles said:
Welcome back dyedwoolie (dyedinsomewoolsomewhere?)0 -
Evening Morris.
Did the Populus get reported yesterday? It's two up each for Tory and Lab, down three and one for the Herrings and the Cornish liberals0 -
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
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Have The Ed's blown it?0
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A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y0 -
Oh, I dunno. I'm sure that the Cyberbritnats like Scott P and Mark Senior will come up with some claptrap to reassure the breek-fillers.TGOHF said:
No excuses now...Stuart_Dickson said:- "Not quite cross-over but nearly there"
Exquisite timing for the Yes campaign.
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by-election coming, perhaps?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/466233/MP-Eric-Joyce-may-step-down-sooner-rather-than-later-after-new-guilty-verdict0 -
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He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.0 -
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F1: I'm waiting for Williams to have a nice lay price, but McLaren for the Constructors at 12.5 (only £17) is too long. They should be shorter than both Red Bull and Ferrari (especially Ferrari. The Prancing Horse has a fantastic driver lineup and a car that isn't fast enough and may be too thirsty as well).
So, if you have £17 to spare you might want to avail yourself.0 -
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y0 -
No government minister more deserving of re-election, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
To achieve political success you either need to go to Eton or do a good job.
Danny chose the latter route.0 -
Labour vote not changed. That's they key takeaway.0
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mini credit boom doing its thing at the top end - better hope those sanctions don't end up biting the hand that bungs them0
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I hope it's true, but the story on the sidebar about Hitler living to 95 in Brazil reminds me that this is from the Express.RodCrosby said:0 -
Mr. Woolie, not sure. It'll be interested to see how accurate the various pollsters are for the European elections, and the referendum.0
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That is like winning an award for being the Bee Gee with the deepest voice.TGOHF said:
He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
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Id suggest anything of 35 and above makes a Tory majority impossible, maybe 34 is enough to stop it.SouthamObserver said:Labour vote not changed. That's they key takeaway.
Solidity is your foe or friend from here on in.
Tories looking for 38 or 39
UKIP need 10 plus to maybe squeak a couple of seats
Lib Dems will be OK with 15 or above on the day
So SAYETH The Lord0 -
If national polls are replicated, Labour would win this seat. The Liberal position in Scotland is worse than in the uK as a whole.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.0 -
There is a sting in the tail of this budget. Up until now pension account money could not be directly accessed, only used to buy an annuity. Now once you are over 55 you will be able to access it like a savings account and only pay income tax at your marginal rate on what you withdraw. So it is now accessible capital once you reach 55.
This may well mean anyone over 55 in a low paid job, currently receiving housing or council tax benefit, or anyone over 55 who loses their job, will no longer get a penny in benefits if they have a pension pot worth more than £16,000, as they will have more than £16,000 in capital which disqualifies them from benefits.
Odd that Ed Balls has not thought to mention this yet. Perhaps it has not occured to Labour yet?0 -
You missed out "or study PPE at Oxbridge"AveryLP said:
No government minister more deserving of re-election, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
To achieve political success you either need to go to Eton or do a good job.
Danny chose the latter route.
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If you add in some small anti-Con tactical voting you get to LAB 9 short. I agree that LAB most seats in a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (as I have said for a long time)surbiton said:
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y0 -
Delusion on a monumental scale.AveryLP said:
No government minister more deserving of re-election, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
To achieve political success you either need to go to Eton or do a good job.
Danny chose the latter route.
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Danny should hold Inverness for one simple reason, he works his constituency extremely hard and is very popular. He is also the most vocal opponent of the SNP's ludicrous policy of putting average speed cameras on the A9 for the next 15 years.0
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Welcome back! We've missed the authentic voice of the Norfolk Broadsdyedwoolie said:Which would appear to support the hollowing out of the liberal/kipper vote shown by survation in favour of the establishment
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[Eric Joyce MP] asked airport baggage handlers for help and became abusive when they asked for flight details. Police officers became involved, but he continued to hurl insults.RodCrosby said:
Joyce repeatedly called a baggage handler and officers “fat, f****** w******” and goaded officers to “f****** arrest me”.
He also referred to an officer of Afro-Caribbean origin as “f****** fat and black”.
Makes our very own malcolmg sound like an officer an gentleman.
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Don't overestimate how many Scottish Tories would be willing to vote tactically for their Lib Dem allies. In Scotland, especially in the Highlands, the Lib Dems are pretty red in tooth and claw. Remember, the SLDs were in coalition with SLab from 1999-2007, and Scottish Tory voters have long memories.surbiton said:
If national polls are replicated, Labour would win this seat. The Liberal position in Scotland is worse than in the uK as a whole.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.
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Sorry ! I meant if the GE happened in the next month. My projection for May 2015 has not changed.Freggles said:
If you add in some small anti-Con tactical voting you get to LAB 9 short. I agree that LAB most seats in a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (as I have said for a long time)surbiton said:
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Labour 300, Tories 280, LD 350 -
@dyedwoolie,welcome back,you still wanting a labour GE win ?0
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On those numbers Labour is likely to do worse because so many of the seats they need to take back will have Tories probably benefiting from 1st time incumbency. Interesting that at 36 Tory/32 Lab, the Tories on UNS would be able to govern with the support of the UUP/DUP and absence of SF.surbiton said:
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
I heard the remarks reported to have come from Eric Joyce yesterday. Would be priceless if he announced his resignation and forcing a by-election on last day of SLAB conference.
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The huge shame about Eric Joyce is that he has lots of very thoughtful observations to make and comes across as far more interesting than the average MP. He could have helped restore confidence in politicians. But his demons have consumed him.0
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Yes, but I don't think they would let Labour win by default. Remember, Labour has won this seat in recent times though not exactly this seat with current boundary.Stuart_Dickson said:
Don't overestimate how many Scottish Tories would be willing to vote tactically for their Lib Dem allies. In Scotland, especially in the Highlands, the Lib Dems are pretty red in tooth and claw. Remember, the SLDs were in coalition with SLab from 1999-2007, and Scottish Tory voters have long memories.surbiton said:
If national polls are replicated, Labour would win this seat. The Liberal position in Scotland is worse than in the uK as a whole.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.0 -
Thanks! I'm now going down to my bar to make sure it's in one piece, will check in laterCharles said:
Welcome back! We've missed the authentic voice of the Norfolk Broads0 -
Or one for being the not-dead Bee Gee.Stuart_Dickson said:
That is like winning an award for being the Bee Gee with the deepest voice.TGOHF said:
He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
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No, that temporary spasm has passed. I'm voting Tory as least worst option whilst holding my nose and waiting for popular revolutionTykejohnno said:@dyedwoolie,welcome back,you still wanting a labour GE win ?
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There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going. Anecdotally I chatted to someone today who fits Mike's description of a firmer Cons. She said before the budget she wash't sure but 'they seem to be doing well and fixing the economy.' Over a year to go and every economic piece falling into place with a growing economy and another storming budget this time next year? Come on folks, be real: this narrative is an unstoppable force.
I think there are more interesting questions, such as whether the Tories will get to 40% this year, and then the size of their 2015 majority. Will they get over 20 seats ahead so that Cameron can relax?
Otherwise I'd say an outright Conservative victory next year is now odds-on.0 -
Hung parliament nailed on.0
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An even better simile.Theuniondivvie said:
Or one for being the not-dead Bee Gee.Stuart_Dickson said:
That is like winning an award for being the Bee Gee with the deepest voice.TGOHF said:
He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
Being "the best and sanest LD by some margin" is hardly an accolade. And that is leaving aside the fact that it is self-evidently untrue.
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Yes, so desperate that we are forming the next government !audreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going. Anecdotally chatted to someone today who fits Mike's description of a firmer Cons. She said before the budget she wash't sure but 'they seem to be doing well and fixing the economy.' Over a year to go and every economic piece falling into place with a growing economy and another storming budget this time next year? Come on folks be real: this narrative is a unstoppable force.
I think there are more interesting questions, such as whether the Tories will get to 40% this year, and then the size of their 2015 majority. Will they get over 20 seats ahead so that Cameron can relax?
Otherwise I'd say an outright Conservative victory next year is now odds-on.0 -
Hancock ?Stuart_Dickson said:
An even better simile.Theuniondivvie said:
Or one for being the not-dead Bee Gee.Stuart_Dickson said:
That is like winning an award for being the Bee Gee with the deepest voice.TGOHF said:
He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
Being "the best and sanest LD by some margin" is hardly an accolade. And that is leaving aside the fact that it is self-evidently untrue.0 -
I'd swap the Labour and Conservative seat numbers, for my prediction.surbiton said:
Sorry ! I meant if the GE happened in the next month. My projection for May 2015 has not changed.Freggles said:
If you add in some small anti-Con tactical voting you get to LAB 9 short. I agree that LAB most seats in a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (as I have said for a long time)surbiton said:
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Labour 300, Tories 280, LD 35
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Many of the recent Scottish sub samples so beloved of Mr Dickson show the Lib Dems now doing better in Scotland than in England ,. Certainly there has been an uplift in LD support in Scotland in 2014 .surbiton said:
If national polls are replicated, Labour would win this seat. The Liberal position in Scotland is worse than in the uK as a whole.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.0 -
Just as yours have consumed you.antifrank said:The huge shame about Eric Joyce is that he has lots of very thoughtful observations to make and comes across as far more interesting than the average MP. He could have helped restore confidence in politicians. But his demons have consumed him.
Once upon a time you could have helped restore confidence in PB.0 -
Show me the crossover.....show me the crossover!
Better polls will be released for Labour later ;-)0 -
Mr. Dickson, that's a rather unkind post.0
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How can he be ? He is a Tory !TGOHF said:
He is the best and sanest LD by some margin though.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
@TimMontgomerie To be fair, most Labour MPs are tearing their hair out. The complacency isn't in the ranks.
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I can't see any scenario in which the Conservatives win a majority. I think 37% is as good as it gets, which can make them comfortably the largest party, but short of a majority.dyedwoolie said:
Id suggest anything of 35 and above makes a Tory majority impossible, maybe 34 is enough to stop it.SouthamObserver said:Labour vote not changed. That's they key takeaway.
Solidity is your foe or friend from here on in.
Tories looking for 38 or 39
UKIP need 10 plus to maybe squeak a couple of seats
Lib Dems will be OK with 15 or above on the day
So SAYETH The Lord
I think the 1990-97 period did lasting damage to the Conservative Party.
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Comrades!
Comrades!
We should remember that this poll must be an outlier! It simply must be! 0 -
The key to success in life is to have rich parentsAveryLP said:
No government minister more deserving of re-election, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
To achieve political success you either need to go to Eton or do a good job.
Danny chose the latter route.0 -
If you mean my post pointing out that Gideons pension reform may well mean the majority of over 55s being disbarred from state benefits I'm not a Labour supporter I'm a former tory supporter whos going to vote UKIP (as evidenced by previous posts)audreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going.
I may be centre right with a lot of time for the "Tebbit right" but I find this government repulsive and uncaring about those who are not rich. As well as potentially disbarring over 55s from benefits Gideons idiotic new pension policy will condemn millions to an impoverished old age as now they have access to this capital they will inevitably suffer emotional pressure and blackmail to use it for their childrens tuition fees, first car to get them to work, weddings or their elderly persions care home fees (a lot of which will also attract VAT and therefore extra revenue for Gideon).
A caring centre right government would not have destroyed annuities through Weimar style money printing and would have properly regulated the annuity providers to stop them taking the P. This lot have just shafted the lower middle and upper working classes - again and will pay in 2015.
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Stuart is correct, we Scots Tories see the LibDems as cuckoos in around 8-10 of our seats and we want them back. In Caithness, Sutherland & ER we were delighted when Robbie Rowantree the LibDem got humped by Rob Gibson of the SNP in 2011 because the traitor had been Tory Chairman in the constituency, then stood as Tory candidate in Inverness before jumping ship just as Jamie Stone had done 30 years earlier to get elected as a LibDem on the council. Our joy was complete when having failed to hold the Holyrood seat, he also failed to get re-elected to Highland Council.Stuart_Dickson said:
Don't overestimate how many Scottish Tories would be willing to vote tactically for their Lib Dem allies. In Scotland, especially in the Highlands, the Lib Dems are pretty red in tooth and claw. Remember, the SLDs were in coalition with SLab from 1999-2007, and Scottish Tory voters have long memories.surbiton said:
If national polls are replicated, Labour would win this seat. The Liberal position in Scotland is worse than in the uK as a whole.Stuart_Dickson said:
The Danny Alexander price shortens yet again today in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD maj = 8,765)AveryLP said:Danny Alexander.
First on merit.
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.
Danny might be an exception. There is a history in Inverness of Tories voting Liberal to keep the Liberal MP in. "We" did it for 30 years to keep Russell Johnston in post. I cant see (m)any Tories voting LibDem at the GE in Aberdeenshire, Argyll, NE Fife, Edinburgh or the Borders. The Euro elections will be very interesting in Scotland to see the split between Tories and LibDems.
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I would say 1979 - 90 also did lasting damage poll tax = Scotland,miners strike = Northern England and inner city riots = Ethnic minorities.Sean_F said:
I can't see any scenario in which the Conservatives win a majority. I think 37% is as good as it gets, which can make them comfortably the largest party, but short of a majority.dyedwoolie said:
Id suggest anything of 35 and above makes a Tory majority impossible, maybe 34 is enough to stop it.SouthamObserver said:Labour vote not changed. That's they key takeaway.
Solidity is your foe or friend from here on in.
Tories looking for 38 or 39
UKIP need 10 plus to maybe squeak a couple of seats
Lib Dems will be OK with 15 or above on the day
So SAYETH The Lord
I think the 1990-97 period did lasting damage to the Conservative Party.
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To get that, you'd needSean_F said:
I'd swap the Labour and Conservative seat numbers, for my prediction.surbiton said:
Sorry ! I meant if the GE happened in the next month. My projection for May 2015 has not changed.Freggles said:
If you add in some small anti-Con tactical voting you get to LAB 9 short. I agree that LAB most seats in a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (as I have said for a long time)surbiton said:
Labour will do better than that but still short of a majority. Maybe 5 short.Freggles said:A link to the Baxter prediction for the Survation poll
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
Labour 300, Tories 280, LD 35
C 34.5
Lab 30
LD 14
So, you think Labour will improve by 1 point only ?
I think peopel do not realise how inefficient the Tory vote distribution is. I can tell you, in addition to Scotland and the North, you can now add whole areas of Yorkshire where the Tories will pile up votes with hardly any seats. They will also pile up votes in the home counties.
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Joyce is the Joey Barton of politics, an interesting, thoughtful and talented person, let down by character flaws.
It would be an interesting by-election. Especially if he stands as an independent.antifrank said:The huge shame about Eric Joyce is that he has lots of very thoughtful observations to make and comes across as far more interesting than the average MP. He could have helped restore confidence in politicians. But his demons have consumed him.
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Tuition fees? You mean the things that people don't have to pay upfront anymore?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
If you mean my post pointing out that Gideons pension reform may well mean the majority of over 55s being disbarred from state benefits I'm not a Labour supporter I'm a former tory supporter whos going to vote UKIP (as evidenced by previous posts)audreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going.
I may be centre right with a lot of time for the "Tebbit right" but I find this government repulsive and uncaring about those who are not rich. As well as potentially disbarring over 55s from benefits Gideons idiotic new pension policy will condemn millions to an impoverished old age as now they have access to this capital they will inevitably suffer emotional pressure and blackmail to use it for their childrens tuition fees, first car to get them to work, weddings or their elderly persions care home fees (a lot of which will also attract VAT and therefore extra revenue for Gideon).
A caring centre right government would not have destroyed annuities through Weimar style money printing and would have properly regulated the annuity providers to stop them taking the P. This lot have just shafted the lower middle and upper working classes - again and will pay in 2015.
Sorry but it is hard to take someone serious who can't get the basics right. It is almost as if you are here just to stir...0 -
Some arithmetic defying predictions on here tonight - 50 seats swinging to Labour in the rush to welcome in Ed with his current polling.
Optimistic.0 -
Erm, it was a thread leader and I thought at the time it was very silly but decided to keep my counsel.Freggles said:
Who said that?SeanT said:"Torybingo will alter the political narrative like the Liam Byrne letter."
Cretins.
Who is a cretin?
Really it is quite amazing how few on pb pay any attention to political history. Governments usually dip mid-term and with a fixed term there has been none of the usual Election fever to get the public worked up into firming their vote. The fact that the Cons and Lab could be almost neck and neck now with the opposition in the mid-30's, an incredibly powerful economic narrative and another storming budget this time next year means this one is heading Conservative.
Oh and hung parliaments usually occur with a strong third party vote. There won't be.0 -
Just out of interest the word cretin comes from mountain cretinism cos people up the alps got it - iodine deficiency.Freggles said:
Who said that?SeanT said:"Torybingo will alter the political narrative like the Liam Byrne letter."
Cretins.
Who is a cretin?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretinism
"Endemic cretinism was especially common in areas of southern Europe around the Alps and was described by ancient Roman writers, and often depicted by medieval artists. The earliest Alpine mountain climbers sometimes came upon whole villages of cretins.[11] Alpine cretinism was described from a medical perspective by several travellers and physicians in the late 18th and early 19th centuries"
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STimes YouGov poll show Lab and Con equal!
[Sky News source]
Do we have the details in their full glory?
I see Basil is lying on the road shamming death.0 -
Sky: ST poll to show parties "neck and neck"...0
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He was not talking about Tuition fees. He was talking about pensions and annuities.oxfordsimon said:
Tuition fees? You mean the things that people don't have to pay upfront anymore?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
If you mean my post pointing out that Gideons pension reform may well mean the majority of over 55s being disbarred from state benefits I'm not a Labour supporter I'm a former tory supporter whos going to vote UKIP (as evidenced by previous posts)audreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going.
I may be centre right with a lot of time for the "Tebbit right" but I find this government repulsive and uncaring about those who are not rich. As well as potentially disbarring over 55s from benefits Gideons idiotic new pension policy will condemn millions to an impoverished old age as now they have access to this capital they will inevitably suffer emotional pressure and blackmail to use it for their childrens tuition fees, first car to get them to work, weddings or their elderly persions care home fees (a lot of which will also attract VAT and therefore extra revenue for Gideon).
A caring centre right government would not have destroyed annuities through Weimar style money printing and would have properly regulated the annuity providers to stop them taking the P. This lot have just shafted the lower middle and upper working classes - again and will pay in 2015.
Sorry but it is hard to take someone serious who can't get the basics right. It is almost as if you are here just to stir...0 -
Looks like crossover time approaches; for a time at least.
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Stuart is correct, we Scots Tories see the LibDems as cuckoos in around 8-10 of our seats and we want them back. In Caithness, Sutherland & ER we were delighted when Robbie Rowantree the LibDem got humped by Rob Gibson of the SNP in 2011 because the traitor had been Tory Chairman in the constituency, then stood as Tory candidate in Inverness before jumping ship just as Jamie Stone had done 30 years earlier to get elected as a LibDem on the council. Our joy was complete when having failed to hold the Holyrood seat, he also failed to get re-elected to Highland Council.
Danny might be an exception. There is a history in Inverness of Tories voting Liberal to keep the Liberal MP in. "We" did it for 30 years to keep Russell Johnston in post. I cant see (m)any Tories voting LibDem at the GE in Aberdeenshire, Argyll, NE Fife, Edinburgh or the Borders. The Euro elections will be very interesting in Scotland to see the split between Tories and LibDems.
You're expecting Yes to win the referendum, though, in which case this becomes academic.0 -
No I'm afraid I didn't read it.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
If you mean my post pointing outaudreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going.
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Dan Hodges and Tim Montgomerie both saying YouGov has a 1% Lab lead. Wonder what the numbers will be?0
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Equal......really!AveryLP said:STimes YouGov poll show Lab and Con equal!
[Sky News source]
Do we have the details in their full glory?
I see Basil is lying on the road shamming death.
I think you had go and check the figures old bean.0 -
MrJones said:
Just out of interest the word cretin comes from mountain cretinism cos people up the alps got it - iodine deficiency.Freggles said:
Who said that?SeanT said:"Torybingo will alter the political narrative like the Liam Byrne letter."
Cretins.
Who is a cretin?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretinism
"Endemic cretinism was especially common in areas of southern Europe around the Alps and was described by ancient Roman writers, and often depicted by medieval artists. The earliest Alpine mountain climbers sometimes came upon whole villages of cretins.[11] Alpine cretinism was described from a medical perspective by several travellers and physicians in the late 18th and early 19th centuries"
There is a bit of an iodine theme going on here isn't there?audreyanne said:
Erm, it was a thread leader and I thought at the time it was very silly but decided to keep my counsel.Freggles said:
Who said that?SeanT said:"Torybingo will alter the political narrative like the Liam Byrne letter."
Cretins.
Who is a cretin?
Really it is quite amazing how few on pb pay any attention to political history. Governments usually dip mid-term and with a fixed term there has been none of the usual Election fever to get the public worked up into firming their vote. The fact that the Cons and Lab could be almost neck and neck now with the opposition in the mid-30's, an incredibly powerful economic narrative and another storming budget this time next year means this one is heading Conservative.
Oh and hung parliaments usually occur with a strong third party vote. There won't be.
Erm, the thread header said it "could" change the political narrative, which is a lot different to "will".
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I think there are a few flaws in your argument. We do not know that pension pots would be counted as savings. The majority of over 55's do not have private pension pots.
And Labour needs to get its story straight. Is the problem with the budget that 55+ year olds will be ineligible for benefits? or after blowing the lot on beer and bingo that they will be dependent on benefits?
"If you do not trust yourself with your own money, vote Labour" is not a winning slogan.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
If you mean my post pointing out that Gideons pension reform may well mean the majority of over 55s being disbarred from state benefits I'm not a Labour supporter I'm a former tory supporter whos going to vote UKIP (as evidenced by previous posts)audreyanne said:There are some desperate-sounding posts this evening from Labour supporters. Barring some major external catastrophe it's pretty obvious which way this one is going.
I may be centre right with a lot of time for the "Tebbit right" but I find this government repulsive and uncaring about those who are not rich. As well as potentially disbarring over 55s from benefits Gideons idiotic new pension policy will condemn millions to an impoverished old age as now they have access to this capital they will inevitably suffer emotional pressure and blackmail to use it for their childrens tuition fees, first car to get them to work, weddings or their elderly persions care home fees (a lot of which will also attract VAT and therefore extra revenue for Gideon).
A caring centre right government would not have destroyed annuities through Weimar style money printing and would have properly regulated the annuity providers to stop them taking the P. This lot have just shafted the lower middle and upper working classes - again and will pay in 2015.0 -
"SKY NEWS HAVE TORY LABOUR NECK AND NECK"
"SKY NEWS HAVE TORY LABOUR EQUAL"
Commonly known as PB Hodge premature polling ejaculation.
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Having already had a number of wagers on just such an outcome in 2015 with tim from a couple of years ago, I am more convinced than ever that this will indeed be the case.audreyanne said:
Erm, it was a thread leader and I thought at the time it was very silly but decided to keep my counsel.Freggles said:
Who said that?SeanT said:"Torybingo will alter the political narrative like the Liam Byrne letter."
Cretins.
Who is a cretin?
Really it is quite amazing how few on pb pay any attention to political history. Governments usually dip mid-term and with a fixed term there has been none of the usual Election fever to get the public worked up into firming their vote. The fact that the Cons and Lab could be almost neck and neck now with the opposition in the mid-30's, an incredibly powerful economic narrative and another storming budget this time next year means this one is heading Conservative.
Oh and hung parliaments usually occur with a strong third party vote. There won't be.0 -
Front of sunday times -Tories neck and neck with labour-knives come out for miliband0
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Posted many times that I think very few seats will change hands. Con most seats and 5 more years of Dave and Nick.Freggles said:
Stick your neck out then, are you a Con Maj Nailed On Redux poster?TGOHF said:Some arithmetic defying predictions on here tonight - 50 seats swinging to Labour in the rush to welcome in Ed with his current polling.
Optimistic.0 -
1) pb doesn't need me to restore confidence in it.Stuart_Dickson said:
Just as yours have consumed you.antifrank said:The huge shame about Eric Joyce is that he has lots of very thoughtful observations to make and comes across as far more interesting than the average MP. He could have helped restore confidence in politicians. But his demons have consumed him.
Once upon a time you could have helped restore confidence in PB.
2) I haven't any interest in doing anything other than working out my views on here. If that upsets some, well I suggest they grow a thicker skin.0 -
In terms of the three big things the LibLabCon collude on: immigration, EU and banksters (structure not bonuses), I wonder which one Lab could use to try and crawl out of the hole.
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Holy goalpost, Batman!0
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March 2009, Tories have 13point lead
March 2014 neck and neck
Interesting0 -
o/t - but it is possible (as it was under the previous comment system) to filter whose posts you can see on a thread? I am no longer a regular visitor due to the increasing shrillness of a number of the current posters - but if I could filter things then I might be more willing to read the rest of the more insightful contributions.0
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Computer dear chap, did you compose the humour sections in Ed Bland's LOTO reply on Wednesday?compouter2 said:"SKY NEWS HAVE TORY LABOUR NECK AND NECK"
"SKY NEWS HAVE TORY LABOUR EQUAL"
Commonly known as PB Hodge premature polling ejaculation.
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This discussion has been closed.