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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories jump 4, UKIP and LDs each drop 3 in post-budget Surv
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories jump 4, UKIP and LDs each drop 3 in post-budget Survation poll for Mail on Sunday
The pollster, which pioneered prompting for Farage’s party, has traditionally had the biggest shares for UKIP. That’s down 3 to 15% while the Tories jump 4. The LDs also see a 3% drop.
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First on merit.
Exquisite timing for the Yes campaign.
Lab 38
Con 34
Kippers 12
Lib Dem 9
Knock on the door.
The bingo thing, while fun for Lefties, didn't have the same potency as the pasty tax because it was about giving money not taking it away. It does highlight how careful the Conservatives need to be about their messaging, they may not get off so easy in future.
Welcome back dyedwoolie (dyedinsomewoolsomewhere?)
Did the Populus get reported yesterday? It's two up each for Tory and Lab, down three and one for the Herrings and the Cornish liberals
LD 1/2 (from 4/6)
Lab 7/2
SNP 4/1
Con 66/1
1/2 is just a daft price IMHO.
National Prediction: LAB short 16 of majority
CON 282
LAB 310
LIB 31
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=34&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=9®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/466233/MP-Eric-Joyce-may-step-down-sooner-rather-than-later-after-new-guilty-verdict
So, if you have £17 to spare you might want to avail yourself.
To achieve political success you either need to go to Eton or do a good job.
Danny chose the latter route.
Solidity is your foe or friend from here on in.
Tories looking for 38 or 39
UKIP need 10 plus to maybe squeak a couple of seats
Lib Dems will be OK with 15 or above on the day
So SAYETH The Lord
However, the Tories will switch to help out "their" MP. If he loses, he will move South to a home county Tory seat.
This may well mean anyone over 55 in a low paid job, currently receiving housing or council tax benefit, or anyone over 55 who loses their job, will no longer get a penny in benefits if they have a pension pot worth more than £16,000, as they will have more than £16,000 in capital which disqualifies them from benefits.
Odd that Ed Balls has not thought to mention this yet. Perhaps it has not occured to Labour yet?
Joyce repeatedly called a baggage handler and officers “fat, f****** w******” and goaded officers to “f****** arrest me”.
He also referred to an officer of Afro-Caribbean origin as “f****** fat and black”.
Makes our very own malcolmg sound like an officer an gentleman.
Labour 300, Tories 280, LD 35
I heard the remarks reported to have come from Eric Joyce yesterday. Would be priceless if he announced his resignation and forcing a by-election on last day of SLAB conference.
I think there are more interesting questions, such as whether the Tories will get to 40% this year, and then the size of their 2015 majority. Will they get over 20 seats ahead so that Cameron can relax?
Otherwise I'd say an outright Conservative victory next year is now odds-on.
Being "the best and sanest LD by some margin" is hardly an accolade. And that is leaving aside the fact that it is self-evidently untrue.
Once upon a time you could have helped restore confidence in PB.
Better polls will be released for Labour later ;-)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
@TimMontgomerie To be fair, most Labour MPs are tearing their hair out. The complacency isn't in the ranks.
Who is a cretin?
I think the 1990-97 period did lasting damage to the Conservative Party.
Comrades!
We should remember that this poll must be an outlier! It simply must be!
I may be centre right with a lot of time for the "Tebbit right" but I find this government repulsive and uncaring about those who are not rich. As well as potentially disbarring over 55s from benefits Gideons idiotic new pension policy will condemn millions to an impoverished old age as now they have access to this capital they will inevitably suffer emotional pressure and blackmail to use it for their childrens tuition fees, first car to get them to work, weddings or their elderly persions care home fees (a lot of which will also attract VAT and therefore extra revenue for Gideon).
A caring centre right government would not have destroyed annuities through Weimar style money printing and would have properly regulated the annuity providers to stop them taking the P. This lot have just shafted the lower middle and upper working classes - again and will pay in 2015.
Danny might be an exception. There is a history in Inverness of Tories voting Liberal to keep the Liberal MP in. "We" did it for 30 years to keep Russell Johnston in post. I cant see (m)any Tories voting LibDem at the GE in Aberdeenshire, Argyll, NE Fife, Edinburgh or the Borders. The Euro elections will be very interesting in Scotland to see the split between Tories and LibDems.
C 34.5
Lab 30
LD 14
So, you think Labour will improve by 1 point only ?
I think peopel do not realise how inefficient the Tory vote distribution is. I can tell you, in addition to Scotland and the North, you can now add whole areas of Yorkshire where the Tories will pile up votes with hardly any seats. They will also pile up votes in the home counties.
It would be an interesting by-election. Especially if he stands as an independent.
Sorry but it is hard to take someone serious who can't get the basics right. It is almost as if you are here just to stir...
Optimistic.
Really it is quite amazing how few on pb pay any attention to political history. Governments usually dip mid-term and with a fixed term there has been none of the usual Election fever to get the public worked up into firming their vote. The fact that the Cons and Lab could be almost neck and neck now with the opposition in the mid-30's, an incredibly powerful economic narrative and another storming budget this time next year means this one is heading Conservative.
Oh and hung parliaments usually occur with a strong third party vote. There won't be.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretinism
"Endemic cretinism was especially common in areas of southern Europe around the Alps and was described by ancient Roman writers, and often depicted by medieval artists. The earliest Alpine mountain climbers sometimes came upon whole villages of cretins.[11] Alpine cretinism was described from a medical perspective by several travellers and physicians in the late 18th and early 19th centuries"
[Sky News source]
Do we have the details in their full glory?
I see Basil is lying on the road shamming death.
Stuart is correct, we Scots Tories see the LibDems as cuckoos in around 8-10 of our seats and we want them back. In Caithness, Sutherland & ER we were delighted when Robbie Rowantree the LibDem got humped by Rob Gibson of the SNP in 2011 because the traitor had been Tory Chairman in the constituency, then stood as Tory candidate in Inverness before jumping ship just as Jamie Stone had done 30 years earlier to get elected as a LibDem on the council. Our joy was complete when having failed to hold the Holyrood seat, he also failed to get re-elected to Highland Council.
Danny might be an exception. There is a history in Inverness of Tories voting Liberal to keep the Liberal MP in. "We" did it for 30 years to keep Russell Johnston in post. I cant see (m)any Tories voting LibDem at the GE in Aberdeenshire, Argyll, NE Fife, Edinburgh or the Borders. The Euro elections will be very interesting in Scotland to see the split between Tories and LibDems.
You're expecting Yes to win the referendum, though, in which case this becomes academic.
I think you had go and check the figures old bean.
There is a bit of an iodine theme going on here isn't there?
Erm, the thread header said it "could" change the political narrative, which is a lot different to "will".
And Labour needs to get its story straight. Is the problem with the budget that 55+ year olds will be ineligible for benefits? or after blowing the lot on beer and bingo that they will be dependent on benefits?
"If you do not trust yourself with your own money, vote Labour" is not a winning slogan.
"SKY NEWS HAVE TORY LABOUR EQUAL"
Commonly known as PB Hodge premature polling ejaculation.
2) I haven't any interest in doing anything other than working out my views on here. If that upsets some, well I suggest they grow a thicker skin.
March 2014 neck and neck
Interesting