politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The change in the parliamentary arithmetic since he became PM
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I don't know who you consider my mob to be. I'd welcome your guidance.moonshine said:
Good idea. Why don't your mob call a VONC so we can have a general election then?AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum was advisory in the same way that the ballot question was the ballot question. If you argue that the referendum wasn't really advisory, you have to accept that the ballot question had to be understood in context too.Currystardog said:
Dont forget that according to people on here the referendum was just advisory and the ruling class can just ignore it
If it was advisory, and it was, there must be circumstances in which the advice can be disregarded. What might those be? The answer must be, where events have moved on such that the advice can no longer be safely relied upon.
No one seriously argues that Leave would have won on a no-deal platform. So we are in those circumstances.
New guidance is needed.0 -
Morning all.
Changing topics, where does last night leave Bury FC?
Presumably a ‘Hereford’ job is on the cards?0 -
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock0 -
Spend 24 hours in Korea and you’ll quickly discover they absolutely hate the Japanese. Look at the history and continued Japanese denial of it and you’ll understand why.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, not my area, but it seems really counter-intuitive that two free market capitalist democracies in an area that includes North Korea and China should have such poor relations.
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For twenty years? Thirty? Fifty? The Second Hundred Years’ War?LostCityofZ said:
The only thing which is less edifying is the thought that the Brexiteers despise each other only slightly less than they despise Remainers. The entire edifice of competing hopes and aspirations will come apart shortly after we leave as natural oppositionists return to their natural behaviour of carping from the sidelines.StuartDickson said:
Aha! The old “Quisling” gambit.MarqueeMark said:
Pointless games? All of those MPs who met yesterday to oppose No Deal are sat on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU. In the biggest negotiation of this country's commercial interests in many, many decades. A negotiation brought about by 17.4m people deciding that is what they wanted.moonshine said:Lots more arguments here yesterday about what's constitutional in a country with no written constitution. And on telly a bunch of political nobodies signing a big board that is surely the 2019 equivalent of the Ed Stone.
What's constitutional in a long embedded parliamentary democracy such as the UK, is whatever has popular consent. And the mechanism for finding that out is a general election. The rest is noise.
The Ed Stone v.2 crowd, along with Stewart, Hammond and Co might be able to get a 90 days or 180 days extension through with some convention breaking practice. But if there's popular consent to Leave, it shall in the end be so.
The only reason the election isn't happening now is because Tory Remainers and anti-Corbyn Labourites want to indulge in both eating and having cake. Fair enough. Why have a cake if you aren't allowed to eat it.
But my message to such cake scoffers would be to put up or shut up and call a VONC, because all they are doing right now is delaying the inevitability of the decision and extending the period of uncertainty and rancour.
Meanwhile while they play their pointless games, the rest of us can sit back and get excited about the ticking countdown clock, which now stands at only 76 days. I talk of course about the launch of Disney+ and The Mandalorian, starring the irrepressible Pedro Pascal!
This is why Brexshit will never end: you guys truly despise each other. Cheers Dave!
Meanwhile the ultra-free market Brexiteers will come demanding the support of the centrists when they put the leftwing Brexiteers up against the wall shortly after ramming through Brexit. Corbyn knows this. Without the left there is no majority for Brexit. So around and around we go.
England is facing a national reckoning of Biblical proportions. I’ll start buying when Mayfair flats cost the same as former cooncil hooses in Motherwell.0 -
And then what? Do you think the electorate will be grateful to Boris and the Conservative Party when they become poorer and isolated? When income inequality balloons? When their NHS is sold off to the highest American bidder?HYUFD said:
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1166621354147401728
Massive constitutional challenge from a usurper government. We have removed Kings - it will be easy to get rid off a latter day fake King.0 -
BBC News stating that Government definitely planning to prorogue from mid-Sept0
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If the Tories deliver Brexit they can win the next general election and stay a force in British politics, if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the next general election they will not only lose the next general election but be overtaken by the Brexit Party and no longer stay a major force in British politicsGallowgate said:Genuine question @HYUFD. Would you rather win the next election, and then never again, or lose the next election, but stay a force in British politics?
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Mr. Meeks, the advisory argument falls down because MPs voted to endorse the result.0
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Depends on how they restart and how generous the lower leagues are.TheValiant said:Morning all.
Changing topics, where does last night leave Bury FC?
Presumably a ‘Hereford’ job is on the cards?
All going well they will end up in the National League North as placing them there will resolve some additional issues these closures will cause the Non-league restructuring that takes place next year.0 -
Your short-termism is a sight to behold.HYUFD said:
If the Tories deliver Brexit they can win the next general election and stay a force in British politics, if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the next general election they will not only lose the next general election but be overtaken by the Brexit Party and no longer stay a major force in British politicsGallowgate said:Genuine question @HYUFD. Would you rather win the next election, and then never again, or lose the next election, but stay a force in British politics?
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Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.NickPalmer said:
For what it's worth, Labour has a coherent strategy, which people may not like and which may not prove possible but is intellectually cohesive.Cyclefree said:
There has been no strategy at the heart of the parties' offerings for some time now. It's why the country is bouncing around from wall to wall just getting battered and bruised.
1. Get an election and win it.
2. Scrap May's red lines and negotiate a deal including customs union and not too fussed about free movement - effectively Norway.
3. Offer it to the people in a new referendum as a reasonable option, with Remain as the other reasonable option. Accept either outcome without quibbling. Face down the extremists who want a damaging No Deal or other lunacies.
4. Conduct a socialist government.
And some additional points which matter. Don't flirt with suspending Parliament to get our way. Don't treat opponents as traitors, merely as people we disagree with but will work with as the Parliamentary arithmetic dictates.
Does it mean left-wing policies? Sure. Would it mean a cooler relationship with the US? Under Trump, yes. Might it have all kinds of problems? Undoubtedly. But it's a coherent democratic socialist alternative, and not one that treats Parliament as a suspendible annoyance or obsesses with Brexit while the country rots. It seems to me *obviously* better than what we have now.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.0 -
Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.0 -
Is the Queen going to side with a government on an issue where it does not have a majority in Parliament ?williamglenn said:0 -
That forces the VoNC now, doesn't it?
And perhaps delivers the numbers for it to succeed.0 -
More fiction.HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.NickPalmer said:
For what it's worth, Labour has a coherent strategy, which people may not like and which may not prove possible but is intellectually cohesive.Cyclefree said:
There has been no strategy at the heart of the parties' offerings for some time now. It's why the country is bouncing around from wall to wall just getting battered and bruised.
1. Get an election and win it.
2. Scrap May's red lines and negotiate a deal including customs union and not too fussed about free movement - effectively Norway.
3. Offer it to the people in a new referendum as a reasonable option, with Remain as the other reasonable option. Accept either outcome without quibbling. Face down the extremists who want a damaging No Deal or other lunacies.
4. Conduct a socialist government.
And some additional points which matter. Don't flirt with suspending Parliament to get our way. Don't treat opponents as traitors, merely as people we disagree with but will work with as the Parliamentary arithmetic dictates.
Does it mean left-wing policies? Sure. Would it mean a cooler relationship with the US? Under Trump, yes. Might it have all kinds of problems? Undoubtedly. But it's a coherent democratic socialist alternative, and not one that treats Parliament as a suspendible annoyance or obsesses with Brexit while the country rots. It seems to me *obviously* better than what we have now.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.0 -
But but Charles said this could never happenwilliamglenn said:
Surely there will have to be a VONC now0 -
I would have thought so.Pro_Rata said:That forces the VoNC now, doesn't it?
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Just flashed up as Breaking News on the BBC: Government expected to suspend Parliament from mid-September, meaning MPs have limited time to stop no-deal Brexit.0
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If the Commons majority were cuter, they'd legislate to take the power of prorogation out of the hands of the executive.Pro_Rata said:That forces the VoNC now, doesn't it?
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When did Vote Leave say we should invoke Article 50?HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.NickPalmer said:
For what it's worth, Labour has a coherent strategy, which people may not like and which may not prove possible but is intellectually cohesive.Cyclefree said:
There has been no strategy at the heart of the parties' offerings for some time now. It's why the country is bouncing around from wall to wall just getting battered and bruised.
1. Get an election and win it.
2. Scrap May's red lines and negotiate a deal including customs union and not too fussed about free movement - effectively Norway.
3. Offer it to the people in a new referendum as a reasonable option, with Remain as the other reasonable option. Accept either outcome without quibbling. Face down the extremists who want a damaging No Deal or other lunacies.
4. Conduct a socialist government.
And some additional points which matter. Don't flirt with suspending Parliament to get our way. Don't treat opponents as traitors, merely as people we disagree with but will work with as the Parliamentary arithmetic dictates.
Does it mean left-wing policies? Sure. Would it mean a cooler relationship with the US? Under Trump, yes. Might it have all kinds of problems? Undoubtedly. But it's a coherent democratic socialist alternative, and not one that treats Parliament as a suspendible annoyance or obsesses with Brexit while the country rots. It seems to me *obviously* better than what we have now.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.
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The Ed Stone v2 mob from yesterday? Given it included the leaders of every Westminster party apart from the PM I assume you voted (and intend to vote) for one of them.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't know who you consider my mob to be. I'd welcome your guidance.moonshine said:
Good idea. Why don't your mob call a VONC so we can have a general election then?AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum was advisory in the same way that the ballot question was the ballot question. If you argue that the referendum wasn't really advisory, you have to accept that the ballot question had to be understood in context too.Currystardog said:
Dont forget that according to people on here the referendum was just advisory and the ruling class can just ignore it
If it was advisory, and it was, there must be circumstances in which the advice can be disregarded. What might those be? The answer must be, where events have moved on such that the advice can no longer be safely relied upon.
No one seriously argues that Leave would have won on a no-deal platform. So we are in those circumstances.
New guidance is needed.0 -
deleted0
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No it's not. The Brexit Party is there with Boris do or dying so I don't see why they should be particularly different if there was an extension allowed (to finalise the fantastic, optimistic deal I am currently working on, just a few details here and there).HYUFD said:
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock
You don't hold a huge rally, announce candidates, and set out your agenda only to call it all off after a few policy tweaks from the incumbent government.0 -
And so a previous monarch said (as told by Shakespeare) - the game's afoot.not_on_fire said:0 -
The renegotiation part wouldn't be pointless unless you think the referendum result would be a foregone conclusion, which I definitely don't.kle4 said:
By on board I meant with genuinely renegotiating. Yes theyd stand under the plan while openly stating they will back remain, dozens of them at least, making the renegotiation part pointless .0 -
Japanese atrocities and slave labour during the last occupation, and a Japanese refusal to pay reparations or even properly acknowledge what was done are the problems.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.
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Try Korean women conscripted as 'comfort women' for the Japanese Army, too.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.0 -
According to HYUFD, Brexit Party is the Conservative Party "B" team.TOPPING said:
No it's not. The Brexit Party is there with Boris do or dying so I don't see why they should be particularly different if there was an extension allowed (to finalise the fantastic, optimistic deal I am currently working on, just a few details here and there).HYUFD said:
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock
You don't hold a huge rally, announce candidates, and set out your agenda only to call it all off after a few policy tweaks from the incumbent government.
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Indeed. Anyone that thinks that the British are still obsessed by World War 2 should take a trip to Asia and see how far/deep memories are there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.0 -
I agree, to secure a degree of tariff free access you have to start from a default position that would otherwise impose tariffs - the South Korea model is the extreme of that and the EU practices the same approach without gearing their tariffs to the UK's specific interests. The UK's approach has had the effect of allowing the EU to be more sanguine than they might have been about the consequences of a no deal Brexit for them, which has had the effect of making them more resolute than they might have been. May and Liam Fox have a lot to answer for.eek said:
And how do you:-moonshine said:
And what of the unwinding of free movement of unskilled labour?Foxy said:
Brexit could be an unwinding of globalism, if it was about tariff barriers and import substitution (might get some WTO trouble though!), but the vision that this government has is not that Peronist approach, but rather a low tariff low regulation world. The plan is for more globalisation, not less.moonshine said:Foxy: "Though almost certainly they have voted to disrupt their communities further. The cold winds of globalism will blow much harder with No Deal."
Please explain the mechanism that supports your statement. Brexit is intrinsically a partial unwinding of globalism. It's Alice and Wonderland stuff here today so far.
1) Encourage other countries to sign trade deals with you when there is no incentive (due to lack of tariffs on our side) for them to do so. South Korea have high tariffs to ensure there is a reason to sign a trade deal with them
2) Stop countries dumping their products on our market (at or below cost) to destroy our industry.
It is possible that Johnson's strategy is this: In the short term, in order to get Brexit over the line and secure a majority at a GE, stick with the current approach in the knowledge that negotiations with the EU will be fruitless. Then post Brexit and post GE quickly switch to a revised higher default external tariff regime in order to help our negotiating position with the EU (and others), disregarding the short term pain of higher consumer prices on imports for the longer term gain once trade agreements are in place.0 -
Mr Surbiton,
Dream on. When MPs demand the right to act contrary to the voter's wishes, they act ultra vires. Whatever the constitution says. If Boris does it, he is calling the MP's bluff.
A GE held on "Who runs the UK? MPs or voters? might not go well for the MPs.
This is not about no-deal Brexit. it's about Brexit or Remain.0 -
This is getting nasty. Forget who will become PM. Get VoNC done, maybe after passing law on extension.eek said:
I think Parliament will try to get control of the timetable first. If that fails then the VoNC which was delayed until October comes back.Pro_Rata said:That forces the VoNC now, doesn't it?
And perhaps delivers the numbers for it to succeed.
Bercow is the Man now.0 -
I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.0
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As it happens, yet again you're wrong. Vote Leave issued a roadmap to follow a Leave victory:HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june.html
"It is only after informal negotiations with both other EU members and the Commission that issues such as whether and how to use Article 50 will be clear. It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions."
"It will be possible to negotiate a new settlement with the EU, including a UK-EU free trade deal, by the next general election in May 2020."0 -
So Boris is a pro-roguer.
I don’t remember a dictatorship of the clowns promised by Vote Leave.0 -
Don’t knock it!Theuniondivvie said:
It'll depend on which neighbourhood he's in.StuartDickson said:
And will you be canvassing for the Ruth Davidson Party or the Boris The Clown Party?DavidL said:One of the most damaging things economically is uncertainty. By extending Art 50 with the Cooper Letwin motion Parliament wished another 6 months of uncertainty upon us with adverse economic effects including delayed investment. It really would be a gross dereliction of duty of the Commons to do that again. But they probably will. At that point Boris will seek his election and rightly so. Whether he will get it is another question. Many of the members of this Parliament face unemployment once that election is held. Not enough, regrettably.
That strategy worked wonderfully for Russell Johnston, David Steel, Malcolm Bruce, Charlie Kennedy and Jim Wallace.
It was only the widespread adoption of social media which killed the Lib/Lib Dem strategy of telling different porkies to different groups of electors.0 -
What about the EU unilaterally extend A50 citing "confusion" in Westminster.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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Will Johnson risk an election to get a mandate for Hard Brexit?
Will Corbyn force an election with a successful VONC?
These are the questions that I ask myself every morning when I wake up. Do it first thing before I even light a cigarette or eat a banana.
Today the answers are as before and if anything a little more definite. NO and NO.
So still, for me, no Brexit and no GE this year. 2020, different story.0 -
The Brexit Party is there but only on 10 to 15% now ie UKIP 2015 levels on a No Deal only platform when the Tories won a majority with the Tories under Boris at 30 to 35% ie majority territory on a Brexit Deal or No Deal platform.TOPPING said:
No it's not. The Brexit Party is there with Boris do or dying so I don't see why they should be particularly different if there was an extension allowed (to finalise the fantastic, optimistic deal I am currently working on, just a few details here and there).HYUFD said:
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock
You don't hold a huge rally, announce candidates, and set out your agenda only to call it all off after a few policy tweaks from the incumbent government.
In the last months of May the Brexit Party was polling 20 to 25% and the Tories only about 20% on a Brexit only with a Deal platform so the Brexit Party were ahead of the Tories and a divided right and Leave vote would have led to Corbyn PM0 -
I'm not sure the Archbishop of Canterbury could form part of a mob. Mobs tend to comprise wild-eyes nutters railing about traitors and quislings.moonshine said:
The Ed Stone v2 mob from yesterday? Given it included the leaders of every Westminster party apart from the PM I assume you voted (and intend to vote) for one of them.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't know who you consider my mob to be. I'd welcome your guidance.moonshine said:
Good idea. Why don't your mob call a VONC so we can have a general election then?AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum was advisory in the same way that the ballot question was the ballot question. If you argue that the referendum wasn't really advisory, you have to accept that the ballot question had to be understood in context too.Currystardog said:
Dont forget that according to people on here the referendum was just advisory and the ruling class can just ignore it
If it was advisory, and it was, there must be circumstances in which the advice can be disregarded. What might those be? The answer must be, where events have moved on such that the advice can no longer be safely relied upon.
No one seriously argues that Leave would have won on a no-deal platform. So we are in those circumstances.
New guidance is needed.
Sadly, that mob is currently in government.0 -
The referendum was legally advisory. Anyway, a majority today is against leaving.CD13 said:Mr Surbiton,
Dream on. When MPs demand the right to act contrary to the voter's wishes, they act ultra vires. Whatever the constitution says. If Boris does it, he is calling the MP's bluff.
A GE held on "Who runs the UK? MPs or voters? might not go well for the MPs.
This is not about no-deal Brexit. it's about Brexit or Remain.0 -
King Cole, ah, I'd only heard of the so-called comfort women in a Chinese context.
Mr. Surbiton, the Queen is unlikely to refuse. She'd be acting against her own government.
That's not to say I think the proposed extension is correct, or the asking for it. They shouldn't be putting HM in a position like this.0 -
And what about the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc.) Act 2019 ?AlastairMeeks said:
If the Commons majority were cuter, they'd legislate to take the power of prorogation out of the hands of the executive.Pro_Rata said:That forces the VoNC now, doesn't it?
If, as a result of Parliament standing prorogued or adjourned, a Minister of the Crown cannot comply with the obligations in subsection (2) or (3), a proclamation under the Meeting of Parliament Act 1797 shall require Parliament to meet on a specified day within the period within which compliance with subsection (3) is required and to meet on the five following days (other than Saturdays, Sundays or a day which is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom or in any part of the United Kingdom) to allow for compliance with subsection (3)....0 -
When millions were butchered, is that really surprising ?moonshine said:
Indeed. Anyone that thinks that the British are still obsessed by World War 2 should take a trip to Asia and see how far/deep memories are there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.0 -
I don’t think this is as big a deal as it looks. I wonder whether Number 10 is being a bit too clever here.0
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Is this the reaction to the agreement yesterday about legislating away no deal? BoJo thinks he could win a VoNC while he is still 'trying' to get a new deal but the opposition think that too and would not do it right away, so he is forcing them to?surbiton19 said:0 -
Possible but not certainAlastairMeeks said:
As it happens, yet again you're wrong. Vote Leave issued a roadmap to follow a Leave victory:HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june.html
"It is only after informal negotiations with both other EU members and the Commission that issues such as whether and how to use Article 50 will be clear. It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions."
"It will be possible to negotiate a new settlement with the EU, including a UK-EU free trade deal, by the next general election in May 2020."0 -
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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I didn't claim they did. You are simply playing games unless you are suggesting that the leave campaigns didn't regularly assure us that leaving without a deal was "Project Fear". Michael Gove, the Co-Chair of Vote Leave is on record as saying that there is no mandate for No Deal, so straight from the horses mouth.HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.NickPalmer said:
For what it's worth, Labour has a coherent strategy, which people may not like and which may not prove possible but is intellectually cohesive.Cyclefree said:
There has been no strategy at the heart of the parties' offerings for some time now. It's why the country is bouncing around from wall to wall just getting battered and bruised.
1. Get an election and win it.
2. Scrap May's red lines and negotiate a deal including customs union and not too fussed about free movement - effectively Norway.
3. Offer it to the people in a new referendum as a reasonable option, with Remain as the other reasonable option. Accept either outcome without quibbling. Face down the extremists who want a damaging No Deal or other lunacies.
4. Conduct a socialist government.
And some additional points which matter. Don't flirt with suspending Parliament to get our way. Don't treat opponents as traitors, merely as people we disagree with but will work with as the Parliamentary arithmetic dictates.
Does it mean left-wing policies? Sure. Would it mean a cooler relationship with the US? Under Trump, yes. Might it have all kinds of problems? Undoubtedly. But it's a coherent democratic socialist alternative, and not one that treats Parliament as a suspendible annoyance or obsesses with Brexit while the country rots. It seems to me *obviously* better than what we have now.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.0 -
Only if Leave won of course.surbiton19 said:
The referendum was legally advisory.0 -
You can still lay an October election at 4.7 on Betfair. That looks like very good value to me.0
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I thought she was hiding in Shetland ?williamglenn said:0 -
May was the dying days of the May government. Any party would have faced problems in attracting support under those circumstances. For all Boris' twattishness he has arrived with a splash and created a buzz which has attracted the less strong willed back to the party. Plenty of Cons also (not a majority I'm sure of course) are waiting to see which way he jumps when it comes to it and can't, if he jumps the wrong way, be relied upon to support the party he leads.HYUFD said:
The Brexit Party is there but only on 10 to 15% now ie UKIP 2015 levels on a No Deal only platform when the Tories won a majority with the Tories under Boris at 30 to 35% ie majority territory on a Brexit Deal or No Deal platform.TOPPING said:
No it's not. The Brexit Party is there with Boris do or dying so I don't see why they should be particularly different if there was an extension allowed (to finalise the fantastic, optimistic deal I am currently working on, just a few details here and there).HYUFD said:
The Tories will then win a majority as the Brexit Party vote collapses in their favour, extending again is far more dangerous to the Tories than No DealGallowgate said:
Fine. And Boris and your precious Conservative Party will be responsible for the fall out.HYUFD said:Then No Deal it must be to deliver Brexit on October 31st.
Tick Tock
You don't hold a huge rally, announce candidates, and set out your agenda only to call it all off after a few policy tweaks from the incumbent government.
In the last months of May the Brexit Party was polling 20 to 25% and the Tories only about 20% on a Brexit only with a Deal platform so the Brexit Party were ahead of the Tories and a divided right and Leave vote would have led to Corbyn PM0 -
'Whatever the constitution says' and your ultra vires point seem incompatible to me. If the constitution permits then it's not beyond the powers. If it's wrong regardless of the constitution fine but that's not ultra vires?CD13 said:Mr Surbiton,
Dream on. When MPs demand the right to act contrary to the voter's wishes, they act ultra vires. Whatever the constitution says. If Boris does it, he is calling the MP's bluff.
A GE held on "Who runs the UK? MPs or voters? might not go well for the MPs.
This is not about no-deal Brexit. it's about Brexit or Remain.0 -
Best prices - Next UK GE
NOM 4/5
Con Maj 7/4
Lab Maj 16/10 -
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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Would give heaps of ammunition to the viewpoint that the EU have no intention of ever actually letting us leave. Possibly enough to swing a second referendum on its own.surbiton19 said:
What about the EU unilaterally extend A50 citing "confusion" in Westminster.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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But a lot of the remain mps do think that.edmundintokyo said:
The renegotiation part wouldn't be pointless unless you think the referendum result would be a foregone conclusion, which I definitely don't.kle4 said:
By on board I meant with genuinely renegotiating. Yes theyd stand under the plan while openly stating they will back remain, dozens of them at least, making the renegotiation part pointless .0 -
This was not intended to be a criticism. Just an interesting point of reference.surbiton19 said:
When millions were butchered, is that really surprising ?moonshine said:
Indeed. Anyone that thinks that the British are still obsessed by World War 2 should take a trip to Asia and see how far/deep memories are there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.
We can talk about Brexit some more instead if you prefer. But is really no one else excited about The Mandalorian?0 -
So that is it then. Boris knows parliament will oppose him so wants to suspend it. And I'm supposed to fear Corbyn so much I should back someone with such contempt for parliament? I dont even respect the die hard remainers or leavers and think this is wrong.0
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Oh tsk, don't be silly and start introducing facts.SouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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the President was just the mechanismSouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
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Mr. Observer, I wonder if this extra pressure might actually help the anti-no deal alliance coalesce more tightly.
I forget who wrote it, maybe Sun Zi, but I've read that an enemy that's left an escape route on the fourth side and surrounded on three will eagerly disperse. But if you surround them on all sides they'll fight to the death (whether that's theirs or yours).
Edited extra bit: axed an errant 'forced'.0 -
So I guess what's going on here is that Boris doesn't like the legislative route but doesn't mind the VONC/GoNAfaE route?0
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Dominic Grieve furious and almost in tears on the radio. Calls Boris’s actions unconstitutional and says Parliament will VONC if necessary.0
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Welby has long overstepped the line between providing spiritual guidance and taking political positions. He's an unfortunate quirk of our constitutional history.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not sure the Archbishop of Canterbury could form part of a mob. Mobs tend to comprise wild-eyes nutters railing about traitors and quislings.moonshine said:
The Ed Stone v2 mob from yesterday? Given it included the leaders of every Westminster party apart from the PM I assume you voted (and intend to vote) for one of them.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't know who you consider my mob to be. I'd welcome your guidance.moonshine said:
Good idea. Why don't your mob call a VONC so we can have a general election then?AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum was advisory in the same way that the ballot question was the ballot question. If you argue that the referendum wasn't really advisory, you have to accept that the ballot question had to be understood in context too.Currystardog said:
Dont forget that according to people on here the referendum was just advisory and the ruling class can just ignore it
If it was advisory, and it was, there must be circumstances in which the advice can be disregarded. What might those be? The answer must be, where events have moved on such that the advice can no longer be safely relied upon.
No one seriously argues that Leave would have won on a no-deal platform. So we are in those circumstances.
New guidance is needed.
Sadly, that mob is currently in government.0 -
Paging brenda....get ready for yet another GE.0
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Old habits die hard, mind.StuartDickson said:
It was only the widespread adoption of social media which killed the Lib/Lib Dem strategy of telling different porkies to different groups of electors.0 -
Not really. From what I've heard of the expanded universe the mandalorian stuff is the worst kind of fanboy ism.moonshine said:
This was not intended to be a criticism. Just an interesting point of reference.surbiton19 said:
When millions were butchered, is that really surprising ?moonshine said:
Indeed. Anyone that thinks that the British are still obsessed by World War 2 should take a trip to Asia and see how far/deep memories are there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.
We can talk about Brexit some more instead if you prefer. But is really no one else excited about The Mandalorian?0 -
And that’s why there is a huge movement in Italy to take the country out of the EU, of course.Alanbrooke said:
the President was just the mechanismSouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
0 -
Got it in one.edmundintokyo said:So I guess what's going on here is that Boris doesn't like the legislative route but doesn't mind the VONC/GoNAfaE route?
What will be interesting is to see whether Parliament will try to override this attempt to eat up the clock.0 -
Citation needed. But in any case, who cares what they think? They'll vote for the renegotiation+referendum. That's the fact of the matter. If they think they'll definitely win the referendum, it's even facter of the matterer.kle4 said:
But a lot of the remain mps do think that.edmundintokyo said:
The renegotiation part wouldn't be pointless unless you think the referendum result would be a foregone conclusion, which I definitely don't.kle4 said:
By on board I meant with genuinely renegotiating. Yes theyd stand under the plan while openly stating they will back remain, dozens of them at least, making the renegotiation part pointless .0 -
Isn't the point that they won't be able to if Parliament is sitting?Gardenwalker said:Dominic Grieve furious and almost in tears on the radio. Calls Boris’s actions unconstitutional and says Parliament will VONC if necessary.
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More interesting is the question...have the media companies not learned anything from napster / spotify. There are going to be 4-5 different streaming services by the end of the year, all with "exclusive" content.kle4 said:
Not really. From what I've heard of the expanded universe the mandalorian stuff is the worst kind of fanboy ism.moonshine said:
This was not intended to be a criticism. Just an interesting point of reference.surbiton19 said:
When millions were butchered, is that really surprising ?moonshine said:
Indeed. Anyone that thinks that the British are still obsessed by World War 2 should take a trip to Asia and see how far/deep memories are there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm vaguely aware of some of the history (Hideyoshi invading in late 16th or early 17th century, I think) but I didn't know it still played significantly or that there was controversy over what happened.
Thanks for that answer, interesting to learn about it, if a little depressing too.
We can talk about Brexit some more instead if you prefer. But is really no one else excited about The Mandalorian?0 -
Italians want a reformed EU, thats why Salvini is pushing his luck.SouthamObserver said:
And that’s why there is a huge movement in Italy to take the country out of the EU, of course.Alanbrooke said:
the President was just the mechanismSouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
0 -
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Mr Surbiton,
My wife voted Remain for sensible reasons. She would prefer we remained, but she's uneasy about ignoring a referendum result. Like most voters she believes you have to accept the results of a democratic vote. And like most voters, she believes Parliament should honour what it promised to do.
She also believes they intentionally lied about doing so, and that's the killer. She would probably abstain on principle if we re-ran the referendum, but in a public opinion poll, she'd still be in favour of remaining.
I, however, have always been more cynical about MPs.0 -
I wish hed stop with the almost in tears thing. So many times and it just looks like an act, especially from a man happy to bring us this point when he thought he would win.Gardenwalker said:Dominic Grieve furious and almost in tears on the radio. Calls Boris’s actions unconstitutional and says Parliament will VONC if necessary.
0 -
But that was precisely Mrs May`s objective when she called her unnecessary election.Gardenwalker said:So Boris is a pro-roguer.
I don’t remember a dictatorship of the clowns promised by Vote Leave.0 -
Soros I heard.SouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
0 -
With a deadline of October 31st one side had to act first; turns out it was BoJo with the cajones. Fair enough - we'll now see how much parliament really does want to stop him.
Left alone dear god I think he actually would go for no deal.
As a visceral reaction to the BBC breaking news page, however, there is huge resentment at this step being taken which smells a bit like undermining parliament but I accept that many leavers will be high-fiving at the news.0 -
No, no matter what, that's fact. I suspect what you mean is that if remain had won they would say the matter was closed forever, which is probably true, but doesnt change legal reality.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Only if Leave won of course.surbiton19 said:
The referendum was legally advisory.0 -
Love it.Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Yep, they want to stay in the EU. As do the Greeks, of course.Alanbrooke said:
Italians want a reformed EU, thats why Salvini is pushing his luck.SouthamObserver said:
And that’s why there is a huge movement in Italy to take the country out of the EU, of course.Alanbrooke said:
the President was just the mechanismSouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
0 -
Total chaos now- and all outcomes possible from here. Any betting needs to take that into account.
Civil service, Police,army - all can find themselves in very awkward spots over the next few weeks. Interesting to see how the old constitution will deal with the first digital age crisis.0 -
I am convinced that a huge number of people who voted remain think the aboveCD13 said:Mr Surbiton,
My wife voted Remain for sensible reasons. She would prefer we remained, but she's uneasy about ignoring a referendum result. Like most voters she believes you have to accept the results of a democratic vote. And like most voters, she believes Parliament should honour what it promised to do.
She also believes they intentionally lied about doing so, and that's the killer. She would probably abstain on principle if we re-ran the referendum, but in a public opinion poll, she'd still be in favour of remaining.
I, however, have always been more cynical about MPs.1 -
and they also want reform.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, they want to stay in the EU. As do the Greeks, of course.Alanbrooke said:
Italians want a reformed EU, thats why Salvini is pushing his luck.SouthamObserver said:
And that’s why there is a huge movement in Italy to take the country out of the EU, of course.Alanbrooke said:
the President was just the mechanismSouthamObserver said:
Didn’t the Italian President do that?Alanbrooke said:
given they removed a sitting PM in Italy and installed their own man,I dont think that will worry them too much.SouthamObserver said:I wonder whether the EU will negotiate with a government that has shut down democracy to force through a policy it has no mandate to implement.
0 -
What a shame it was a Remainer who decided to trigger Article 50 thenAlastairMeeks said:
As it happens, yet again you're wrong. Vote Leave issued a roadmap to follow a Leave victory:HYUFD said:
Vote Leave did not rule out No Deal, they did promise an end to free movement from the EUOllyT said:
If the promises that the leave campaigns made must be honoured then surely No Deal has to be ruled out.HYUFD said:
In a decade maybe but we have to end free movement and bring EU immigration under control first as Vote Leave promised in the campaignGallowgate said:
I think they would. I'm a "diehard remainer" as @HYUFD likes to call me but would accept EEA/EFTA.kle4 said:
It might be labour policy to renegotiate a new deal but do you really honestly believe that can be done when 75% or whatever of labour mps want to remain come what may? They have no interest in following the official policy and say so openly.
If we can now ditch the assurances that we would leave with a deal and choose No Deal then we can ditch assurances on immigration and opt for EFTA. You cannot have it both ways.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june.html
"It is only after informal negotiations with both other EU members and the Commission that issues such as whether and how to use Article 50 will be clear. It makes no sense to trigger Article 50 immediately after the 23 June vote and before extensive preliminary discussions."
"It will be possible to negotiate a new settlement with the EU, including a UK-EU free trade deal, by the next general election in May 2020."0 -
The Conservative Party are tearing this country apart.0
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If Johnson is looking for ways to encourage anti-No Deal tactical voting, I think he is doing so very successfully.0
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I never said they wouldn't vote for it I just think pushing labour official policy as nick palmer did is a bit disingenuous when, yes in my opinion, so many of its mps would not give a fig for the renegotiate bit and thus are selling a false prospectus.edmundintokyo said:
Citation needed. But in any case, who cares what they think? They'll vote for the renegotiation+referendum. That's the fact of the matter. If they think they'll definitely win the referendum, it's even facter of the matterer.kle4 said:
But a lot of the remain mps do think that.edmundintokyo said:
The renegotiation part wouldn't be pointless unless you think the referendum result would be a foregone conclusion, which I definitely don't.kle4 said:
By on board I meant with genuinely renegotiating. Yes theyd stand under the plan while openly stating they will back remain, dozens of them at least, making the renegotiation part pointless .0 -
What you just realised?Gallowgate said:The Conservative Party are tearing this country apart.
Boris is attempting a Very British Coup.0 -
What we do know for certain now is that Johnson is not serious about getting a deal.1
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Mr. Gate, pro-EU MPs voted to endorse the referendum result and then repeatedly against May's deal.
The Conservatives are not the only ones to blame for the divided nature of politics now.0 -
Boris clearly wants an people v Parliament election. The irony is that I suspect the result won't be the majority he is hoping for.AlastairMeeks said:
Got it in one.edmundintokyo said:So I guess what's going on here is that Boris doesn't like the legislative route but doesn't mind the VONC/GoNAfaE route?
What will be interesting is to see whether Parliament will try to override this attempt to eat up the clock.0
