I could be wrong, but this feels like a mistake by Johnson.
I think it does look like a significant blunder- it seems to have incensed people way beyond the usual suspects. BoJo does not have the numbers to weather the Parliamentary storm and I think this could be a poll tax riot moment for him.
Has it incensed more than the usual suspects?
Our resident Brexiters have lapped it up. Honourable exceptions: Tyndall, Morris Dancer (maybe).
Those two are normally the honourable exceptions. They are the only Brexit supporters who ever articulate their views with reasoned argument, even if I disagree. All the rest seem to conform to the swivel-eyed low IQ stereotype
A lot of the Tory rebels didn't want to have to choose between No Deal and Corbyn. They were trying to engineer some sort of "third way". This move by Johnson means they don't have a choice: they will have to make that decision.
So, thanks to Boris, in the eyes of the public "suspending parliament" is now a reasonable, normal thing. Chilling.
It's more normal than overturning a public vote I'd say. I dont think there will be too many complaints from the majority given the underhand tactics used by so many MPs up until today.
"the majority" does not support No Deal
There is no mandate for no deal
There is no mandate for blocking Brexit. There is a mandate to implement Brexit, given by the votes of 86% given to parties pledging to implement it at the most recent General Election.
No.
Tories and Labour didnt support No Deal in their 2017 manifestos.
We're leaving on the terms of the deal the UK Govt. has managed to negotiate with the EU.
On 31st October.
There's still time for the EU to come to the dance.
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
Nobody knows if it will make it better, However if your choice is sit in a system which is guaranteed to do nothing for you and with politicians who dont registert your problem or take a punt on something which may have some up side but not leave you worse off, which would you go for ?
I don't disagree at all. I don't blame people for voting Leave. I do however think they were lied to and their lives are just going to get worse. The EU was never the problem but it was hijacked by charlatans interested in hijacking the situation for their own benefit.
It's a complete disgrace.
Go and learn some economics and come back and tell us why the lives of CDEs in the UK were made better by EU membership. I'm sure most of them, like you and me, didn't need some fancy official campaign group slogans to decide which way to vote.
Maybe you should learn to read because I didn't say that the EU definitely made their lives better. I said that leaving the EU won't make their lives better.
"The EU was never the problem". I (and many others) disagree with this comment.
Well you are wrong.
Well if you're to be taken seriously you'll have to explain why. I'll ask for the umpteenth time today. Why have real wages flatlined in the UK for so long, despite a record period of full employment? I have my hypothesis - the marginal cost of low skilled labour has been capped by an effectively infinite pool of EU labour bidding down its price. What's your hypothesis?
“But Ms Mann’s research supports the argument that globalisation makes countries richer in aggregate, and problems arise because governments fail to share the gains fairly or to compensate those who lose out.
Technology and the shift in consumption from goods to services have played a bigger part in the loss of manufacturing jobs in advanced economies than globalisation has, the report found.”
So, thanks to Boris, in the eyes of the public "suspending parliament" is now a reasonable, normal thing. Chilling.
It's more normal than overturning a public vote I'd say. I dont think there will be too many complaints from the majority given the underhand tactics used by so many MPs up until today.
"the majority" does not support No Deal
There is no mandate for no deal
There is no mandate for blocking Brexit. There is a mandate to implement Brexit, given by the votes of 86% given to parties pledging to implement it at the most recent General Election.
No.
Tories and Labour didnt support No Deal in their 2017 manifestos.
We're leaving on the terms of the deal the UK Govt. has managed to negotiate with the EU.
On 31st October.
There's still time for the EU to come to the dance.
You're back to threatening the EU that we'll shoot ourselves in the face unless they negotiate.
A lot of the Tory rebels didn't want to have to choose between No Deal and Corbyn. They were trying to engineer some sort of "third way". This move by Johnson means they don't have a choice: they will have to make that decision.
That sounds like it's the idea but I'm not sure it works, provided the rebels keep their heads (oh): 1) They still have a few days to pass legislation now before parliament leaves 2) If they get their VONC, they can vote down Boris, vote down any humble address or whatever on Corbyn, and hope that they then have the votes for $CARETAKER
Also even if Corbyn tables a VONC now and it loses, they can still come back in October and vote down the Queen's Speech, then try the maneuver again.
This all has the feeling of Cummings trying to play 5D chess. The observation that "something doesn't add up" is almost certainly true. There is a plan behind this, it just hasn't been leaked yet.
Cummings, however, is not as smart as he thinks he is, as illustrated by the basic failure of his reforms at DfE to achieve anything other than making "spag" an acceptable word for primary children to use in the playground.
I expect that (a) the grand plan will be leaked (b) the grand plan will go tits up.
Let us be honest. Nobody has any idea how this ends
Lots of speculation, anger and turmoil, but no clarity at all
Boris to make statement about 10.15
One thing is likely that in any GE Boris will have a deal with Farage if not the EU
So that’s all that matters the survival of the Conservative party the only institution in this whole sorry mess which must survive because it’s......
The Conservative party and plays in blue
Imagine for a moment if a Labour Prime Minister, any Labour PM, proposed pulling a stroke like tbis. The Daily Mail would be crying 'treason'. Imagine if Prime Minister Corbyn set the wheels in motion to suspend Parliament for Party gain, there would be rioting on the streets.
As it is just another wizard wheeze from Boris it is fine! Infact it is democracy in action.
They'll vote for it. its what labour want after all.
Thats alredy been wargamed. Cummings is playing 4D chess.
Also the point about not resigning and not recommending any other government means that they would do their best to stop a confidence resolution passing in the 14 days. If that is likely to succeed then MPs have a choice. Either they wait 14 days and get an election after the leave date or they vote by 2/3 to get an election now which just might be before the leave date.
There is a case before the Court of Session that is due to have an accelerated hearing in, I think, the first week in September. It challenges the right of a PM to prorogate Parliament. It could become very important. It is before Lord Doherty. He is a good lawyer but he won't appreciate being in the eye of this particular storm.
The courts have been willing to make exercise of other prerogatives reviewable. I expect they will here too. Whether that would be enough to overturn an exercise here I don’t know.
It will be a decision by an Outer House Judge, albeit an experienced one. Is he really going to make an order preventing the prorogation of Parliament? I mean, wow, that would be something.
This is a terrible idea and surely the response to Boris's statement will be a VONC.
I quite agree, and to quote you: "This is opposition as government. The government is not so much pushing policy as anticipating its own defeat and planning for it." Cometh the hour cometh Houdini.
I could be wrong, but this feels like a mistake by Johnson.
I think it does look like a significant blunder- it seems to have incensed people way beyond the usual suspects. BoJo does not have the numbers to weather the Parliamentary storm and I think this could be a poll tax riot moment for him.
Has it incensed more than the usual suspects?
Our resident Brexiters have lapped it up. Honourable exceptions: Tyndall, Morris Dancer (maybe).
Well a significant minority of Conservative MPs are not going to run with this... and the local Brexiters are more enthusiastic than expert.
It already has the feel and the smell of a huge mistake.
It won't be popular - with MPs, the Country at large, and, I suspect, the Queen.
“The economics of Brexit are almost trivially easy, which is why there is near-universal agreement among experts that Brexit will cost us dear. Trade costs rise with our closest neighbours from both tariffs and regulatory divergence, so trade will fall. Since the lesson of human development is that trade makes us average richer, Brexit will make us poorer. And the more extreme is the form of Brexit, the bigger is the fall of trade and income...
...The pain will accumulate gradually. Brexit is a cunning domestic abuser of the economy. He hits us where the bruises do not show easily – it will be a gradual accumulation of financial pain over many, many years.”
John van Reenen is a professor at MIT’s department of economics and Sloan School of Management. From October 2003 to July 2016 he was professor of economics and the director of the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at LSE. He has published widely on the economics of innovation, labour markets and productivity. In 2009 he received the Yrjö Jahnsson Award, the European equivalent to the US Bates Clark Medal, awarded every two years to the best economist in Europe under the age of 45.
...The pain will accumulate gradually. Brexit is a cunning domestic abuser of the economy. He hits us where the bruises do not show easily – it will be a gradual accumulation of financial pain over many, many years.”
This is the part which really hasn't been widely acknowledged. Everyone has been arguing about whether or not we'll get a couple of months of chaos. Either way, that's survivable; it's the ensuing decade of slow decline which will do the most damage.
some peoples lives have got better in the last 20 years and most people have simply stagnated. The system as it was wasnt taking eveyone with it. Those of us who pointed this out got short shrift . If people arent seeing progress then why would they vote for a system that doesnt benefit them ?
Most peoples' lives have become demonstrably better over the past 20 years what on earth are you talking about? They may or may not be seeing progress but progress there has been. Of course what they have also seen is the rise of their neighbour's HP spaffing and a brand spanking new Range Rover Evoque parked over the road, plus they avidly might watch TOWIE and wonder why their lot is so miserable. But they have become richer over the past 20 years although sadly the pace of growth might now slow somewhat.
Try relating your comments to the facts. Average real weekly earnings went up consistently year on year only until 2008 and have still not recovered to that level since, the limited growth since 2015 still being insufficient to wipe out the consistent year on year falls from 2008-2014. Income derived from benefits (excluding pensions) has fallen consistently since 2011/2 due to non-indexation with inflation (including pension credit) or cuts (e.g. move to UC) and in addition many benefits have become harder to claim (e.g. PIP). Public services have deteriorated markedly - things are charged for now or just not provided.
So confine your comment to the last 11 years and the situation is the opposite to the picture you are painting.
Within your 20 years, I would accept that the period prior to 2008 was one of steady improvements in net incomes and public services, even if the rate of improvement was starting to slow as 2008 approached. But that was a different world compared to this one.
I could be wrong, but this feels like a mistake by Johnson.
I think it does look like a significant blunder- it seems to have incensed people way beyond the usual suspects. BoJo does not have the numbers to weather the Parliamentary storm and I think this could be a poll tax riot moment for him.
Has it incensed more than the usual suspects?
Our resident Brexiters have lapped it up. Honourable exceptions: Tyndall, Morris Dancer (maybe).
Those two are normally the honourable exceptions. They are the only Brexit supporters who ever articulate their views with reasoned argument, even if I disagree. All the rest seem to conform to the swivel-eyed low IQ stereotype
There is nobody posting on this site who appears markedly less intelligent than you are.
And could you give "swivel-eyed" a rest in favour of something a bit more interesting? An easy challenge for a bright chap like you.
Nobody knows if it will make it better, However if your choice is sit in a system which is guaranteed to do nothing for you and with politicians who dont registert your problem or take a punt on something which may have some up side but not leave you worse off, which would you go for ?
I don't disagree at all. I don't blame people for voting Leave. I do however think they were lied to and their lives are just going to get worse. The EU was never the problem but it was hijacked by charlatans interested in hijacking the situation for their own benefit.
It's a complete disgrace.
Go and learn some economics and come back and tell us why the lives of CDEs in the UK were made better by EU membership. I'm sure most of them, like you and me, didn't need some fancy official campaign group slogans to decide which way to vote.
Maybe you should learn to read because I didn't say that the EU definitely made their lives better. I said that leaving the EU won't make their lives better.
"The EU was never the problem". I (and many others) disagree with this comment.
Well you are wrong.
Well if you're to be taken seriously you'll have to explain why. I'll ask for the umpteenth time today. Why have real wages flatlined in the UK for so long, despite a record period of full employment? I have my hypothesis - the marginal cost of low skilled labour has been capped by an effectively infinite pool of EU labour bidding down its price. What's your hypothesis?
Real wages have been depressed since the GFC. But post-war have grown at trend 2%. Per capital GDP has grown over the past few decades but only slightly and has lagged aggregate GDP and there is an argument to say that this is in some part due to suppressed wages on account of lower paid/skilled foreign workers.
Plenty of literature studying other metrics to determine the cost/benefit of low skilled foreign workers has largely agreed that there is a benefit to the host country.
In an alternative, no immigrant world I don't think you'll find that you would get real wages, low unemployment, low inflation. What would you get? Not sure, plenty of moving parts but probably not the nirvana you are implying.
Sounds like No10 playing hardball...and it's smart.
It is not. It is an affront to our long history of parliamentary democracy. Thatcher and Churchill will be spinning in their graves.
Nah.... Bercow's been playing games, Grieves been playing games etc etc... and the remainers all thought they were the ones being clever.
You win, or you die. This is the path we've been on for months.
Exactly, everyone had a chance to vote for Mays Deal or vote for something else. They never voted for anything positive, just voted against everything. MPs truly thought that they could prevent Brexit. Well they cant now. We are leaving on the 31st October.
Whilst the proposal by the government is obviously (purposefully) provocative, it is definitely within their power and the norm when a Queen's speech happens. That a Queen's speech is needed now is debatable, but not unjustifiable.
What I find interesting is that there is still a week of business in the first bit of September where Parliament could easily do another Letwin, and pass emergency legislation demanding that "if there is no deal agree by X date, the PM must ask the EU for an extension, and if offered one, accept it".
There is also enough time after the Oct 14th to enforce said emergency legislation or VONC the government if it looks like Johnson will refuse to do it. So really it is some can kicking to reduce parliamentary accountability (bad) but not the coup it looks like.
I don't disagree with Chorley too much, other than to suggest the Remain side have fewer levers of power to enact their wishes, and rather than dithering losing to ACTION, it is those without the power of government trying to find a route to power and Johnson just having those levers easily at his disposal.
Sounds like No10 playing hardball...and it's smart.
It is not. It is an affront to our long history of parliamentary democracy. Thatcher and Churchill will be spinning in their graves.
Nah.... Bercow's been playing games, Grieves been playing games etc etc... and the remainers all thought they were the ones being clever.
You win, or you die. This is the path we've been on for months.
Exactly, everyone had a chance to vote for Mays Deal or vote for something else. They never voted for anything positive, just voted against everything. MPs truly thought that they could prevent Brexit. Well they cant now. We are leaving on the 31st October.
And you and your ilk will be responsible for what follows.
I can't wait to have my salary paid in Euros in modern England, as a member of the EU.
it is a supreme irony that those that pored scorn on the EU and claimed it is "undemocratic" have now put a wrecking ball through our constitution and democratic conventions. They will be held accountable eventually
Nobody knows if it will make it better, However if your choice is sit in a system which is guaranteed to do nothing for you and with politicians who dont registert your problem or take a punt on something which may have some up side but not leave you worse off, which would you go for ?
I don't disagree at all. I don't blame people for voting Leave. I do however think they were lied to and their lives are just going to get worse. The EU was never the problem but it was hijacked by charlatans interested in hijacking the situation for their own benefit.
It's a complete disgrace.
Go and learn some economics and come back and tell us why the lives of CDEs in the UK were made better by EU membership. I'm sure most of them, like you and me, didn't need some fancy official campaign group slogans to decide which way to vote.
Maybe you should learn to read because I didn't say that the EU definitely made their lives better. I said that leaving the EU won't make their lives better.
"The EU was never the problem". I (and many others) disagree with this comment.
Well you are wrong.
Well if you're to be taken seriously you'll have to explain why. I'll ask for the umpteenth time today. Why have real wages flatlined in the UK for so long, despite a record period of full employment? I have my hypothesis - the marginal cost of low skilled labour has been capped by an effectively infinite pool of EU labour bidding down its price. What's your hypothesis?
“But Ms Mann’s research supports the argument that globalisation makes countries richer in aggregate, and problems arise because governments fail to share the gains fairly or to compensate those who lose out.
Technology and the shift in consumption from goods to services have played a bigger part in the loss of manufacturing jobs in advanced economies than globalisation has, the report found.”
It is a global phenomenon because the world's major economies all adopted the same policies, of looser labour markets and more open borders for goods, people and capital. This was not necessarily the wrong play at the time but it's now led to consequences that are fracturing societies all over the world. It has not helped that there remains such naivety in much of the West about how a certain large economy in the East has manipulated the global trade order for its long term advantage.
some peoples lives have got better in the last 20 years and most people have simply stagnated. The system as it was wasnt taking eveyone with it. Those of us who pointed this out got short shrift . If people arent seeing progress then why would they vote for a system that doesnt benefit them ?
Most peoples' lives have become demonstrably better over the past 20 years what on earth are you talking about? They may or may not be seeing progress but progress there has been. Of course what they have also seen is the rise of their neighbour's HP spaffing and a brand spanking new Range Rover Evoque parked over the road, plus they avidly might watch TOWIE and wonder why their lot is so miserable. But they have become richer over the past 20 years although sadly the pace of growth might now slow somewhat.
Try relating your comments to the facts. Average real weekly earnings went up consistently year on year only until 2008 and have still not recovered to that level since, the limited growth since 2015 still being insufficient to wipe out the consistent year on year falls from 2008-2014. Income derived from benefits (excluding pensions) has fallen consistently since 2011/2 due to non-indexation with inflation (including pension credit) or cuts (e.g. move to UC) and in addition many benefits have become harder to claim (e.g. PIP). Public services have deteriorated markedly - things are charged for now or just not provided.
So confine your comment to the last 11 years and the situation is the opposite to the picture you are painting.
Within your 20 years, I would accept that the period prior to 2008 was one of steady improvements in net incomes and public services, even if the rate of improvement was starting to slow as 2008 approached. But that was a different world compared to this one.
It wasn't my 20 years it was @Alanbrooke's. But yes the GFC sent everything for a spin. No doubt about that. It is still taking time to unwind and when the history books come to be written, I believe that Brexit will be seen as an aftershock and integral part of the GFC for the reasons you describe in your post.
But the fact is that shocks, whether endogenous or exogenous, aside, we have been getting richer these past few decades. And as I mentioned to @moonshine, what would the alternative have been? Given the influx of low skilled foreign workers' importance to the UK economy (yes at the expense of per capita GDP), can you honestly say that without the EU workers we wouldn't have had workers from other areas, as per most recent immigration stats? Who knows but not impossible, perhaps even likely.
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
LOL. Nicola managed to find the time to scamper up to Shetland (three times) and attend the Edinburgh Festival, but not to present the GERS figures, leaving it to the ridiculous Derek Mackay. (BTW - the GERS figures are produced by ScotGov not the evil mandarins of Whitehall).
It is a global phenomenon because the world's major economies all adopted the same policies, of looser labour markets and more open borders for goods, people and capital. This was not necessarily the wrong play at the time but it's now led to consequences that are fracturing societies all over the world. It has not helped that there remains such naivety in much of the West about how a certain large economy in the East has manipulated the global trade order for its long term advantage.
it is a supreme irony that those that pored scorn on the EU and claimed it is "undemocratic" have now put a wrecking ball through our constitution and democratic conventions. They will be held accountable eventually
Have they? All sides have played hardball, some more effectively than others.
The Conservative Party has lost it's USP as the party of business and the economy. It has lost it's USP as a broad church. It has lost it's USP as the leading party of the union. It has now lost it's USP as the main guardian of the constitution and sensible government. The Conservative Party is no longer. It is dead. It is now a narrow minded party for narrow minded far right wingers and ex UKIP/BNP/Brexit Party fascists. I am glad I have resigned my membership.
It si the Boris party now and only objective is to get him re-elected.
The Conservative Party has lost it's USP as the party of business and the economy. It has lost it's USP as a broad church. It has lost it's USP as the leading party of the union. It has now lost it's USP as the main guardian of the constitution and sensible government. The Conservative Party is no longer. It is dead. It is now a narrow minded party for narrow minded far right wingers and ex UKIP/BNP/Brexit Party fascists. I am glad I have resigned my membership.
It si the Boris party now and only objective is to get him re-elected.
I could be wrong, but this feels like a mistake by Johnson.
I think it does look like a significant blunder- it seems to have incensed people way beyond the usual suspects. BoJo does not have the numbers to weather the Parliamentary storm and I think this could be a poll tax riot moment for him.
Has it incensed more than the usual suspects?
Our resident Brexiters have lapped it up. Honourable exceptions: Tyndall, Morris Dancer (maybe).
Those two are normally the honourable exceptions. They are the only Brexit supporters who ever articulate their views with reasoned argument, even if I disagree. All the rest seem to conform to the swivel-eyed low IQ stereotype
There is nobody posting on this site who appears markedly less intelligent than you are.
And could you give "swivel-eyed" a rest in favour of something a bit more interesting? An easy challenge for a bright chap like you.
I think Boris will go with a reissue of Theresa's WA. He'll pretend it's something different while the EU will just indulge him and keep shtum.
Somebody on the twitters points out that by making a new parliamentary session, he gets around limitations on bringing back TMay's WA for MV4.
Thats entirely possible. If they can 'knock out' one of the extremes of remaining or no-deal, then it forces one camp to potentially go for the deal, making it possible.
Well I'm certainly not regretting my resignation, and if I may be so bold, I don't think David Herdson and Richard Nabavi will be either.
Wheras Big G has prioritised Party over Country
My only desire is to stop Corbyn coming near office.
In a GE I will vote for the party best to do that, it is called tactical voting
So basically you will vote for Boris regardless?
I will vote to keep labour out.
The lib dems achieved 20% in 2010 and in this climate could gain the seat. It will be a judgement call at the time of the election. I will not be canvassing or aiding the campaign
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
LOL. Nicola managed to find the time to scamper up to Shetland (three times) and attend the Edinburgh Festival, but not to present the GERS figures, leaving it to the ridiculous Derek Mackay. (BTW - the GERS figures are produced by ScotGov not the evil mandarins of Whitehall).
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
LOL. Nicola managed to find the time to scamper up to Shetland (three times) and attend the Edinburgh Festival, but not to present the GERS figures, leaving it to the ridiculous Derek Mackay. (BTW - the GERS figures are produced by ScotGov not the evil mandarins of Whitehall).
Bollox , they are figures from ONS the tame lapdogs of Westminster who have never got a forecast right in their history, full of estimates and fake numbers. Who would have known Scotland spends 5.3% of its GDP on Defence, or that with no borrowing powers we have 60% of UK debt. You can surely do better than that FFS.
The Conservative Party has lost it's USP as the party of business and the economy. It has lost it's USP as a broad church. It has lost it's USP as the leading party of the union. It has now lost it's USP as the main guardian of the constitution and sensible government. The Conservative Party is no longer. It is dead. It is now a narrow minded party for narrow minded far right wingers and ex UKIP/BNP/Brexit Party fascists. I am glad I have resigned my membership.
It si the Boris party now and only objective is to get him re-elected.
Twas ever thus with leaders, Malc. Brexit cuts across everything for the time being. If Boris pulls it off I suspect he will briskly pivot to the centre - the marriage with the right is one of convenience. He simply needs a cabinet that will do his bidding and not leak etc. That's a lesson he's learnt from the May and Major years.
If Cummings is playing 4/5D chess, then I can only assume he isn't planning on playing past the second week of November. This is short shelf life stuff.
Opposition shouldn't panic, or obsess about process. Looks like yesterday scared Boris and quite rightly. I hope they take control of timetable in the first week back, pass Cooper II and make Boris own an extension request - that's what he really fears, not a VONC.
What's the odds on the Queen telling Rees-Mogg where to shove it today? Would be simply majestic.
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
LOL. Nicola managed to find the time to scamper up to Shetland (three times) and attend the Edinburgh Festival, but not to present the GERS figures, leaving it to the ridiculous Derek Mackay. (BTW - the GERS figures are produced by ScotGov not the evil mandarins of Whitehall).
At least Mackay can count and articulate properly unlike the pathetic Saj.
Nobody knows if it will make it better, However if your choice is sit in a system which is guaranteed to do nothing for you and with politicians who dont registert your problem or take a punt on something which may have some up side but not leave you worse off, which would you go for ?
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Real wages have been depressed since the GFC. But post-war have grown at trend 2%. Per capital GDP has grown over the past few decades but only slightly and has lagged aggregate GDP and there is an argument to say that this is in some part due to suppressed wages on account of lower paid/skilled foreign workers.
Plenty of literature studying other metrics to determine the cost/benefit of low skilled foreign workers has largely agreed that there is a benefit to the host country.
In an alternative, no immigrant world I don't think you'll find that you would get real wages, low unemployment, low inflation. What would you get? Not sure, plenty of moving parts but probably not the nirvana you are implying.
The economic system between 1945 and 1979 bears very little resemblance to the one from 1980 onwards. The post war consensus led to inflation, due to the upward spiral of collective bargaining even in the face of no productivity gains. This in turn led to weak growth because there was no economic incentive for capital holders to risk capital in an inflationary environment.
The response was a new global consensus where borders were opened, labour laws loosened, central banks made independent with the sole goal of price stability. The consequence of this was the return of economic growth and stable prices but at the cost of stagnant real wages for almost everyone in the developed world despite productivity growth. This was partially to the benefit of the global poor but mostly to the benefit of a small number in the entrepreneur class.
And that system has now reached breaking point. Brexit and Trump represent the masses rising up in protest at how they've been forced to become debt slaves just to stand still in life.
No one is talking about a No Immigration world, we'll leave that for the fringes. But one without any control mechanism across a highly varied economy such as Europe is madness. Unless of course your goal is explicitly the end of the nation state and social and economic convergence within the superstate at the cost of all else.
Only Westminster fearties that hide Alan. Swinson blamed fog on not being able to make it that far rather than her being scared she had a nosebleed going so far north.
LOL. Nicola managed to find the time to scamper up to Shetland (three times) and attend the Edinburgh Festival, but not to present the GERS figures, leaving it to the ridiculous Derek Mackay. (BTW - the GERS figures are produced by ScotGov not the evil mandarins of Whitehall).
Under conditions dictated by Whitehall.
Plus you would think the clowns would stop and think before crowing that she is doing the job she elected to do. Showing real leadership is alien to these unionist mugs.
The Conservative Party has lost it's USP as the party of business and the economy. It has lost it's USP as a broad church. It has lost it's USP as the leading party of the union. It has now lost it's USP as the main guardian of the constitution and sensible government. The Conservative Party is no longer. It is dead. It is now a narrow minded party for narrow minded far right wingers and ex UKIP/BNP/Brexit Party fascists. I am glad I have resigned my membership.
It si the Boris party now and only objective is to get him re-elected.
Twas ever thus with leaders, Malc. Brexit cuts across everything for the time being. If Boris pulls it off I suspect he will briskly pivot to the centre - the marriage with the right is one of convenience. He simply needs a cabinet that will do his bidding and not leak etc. That's a lesson he's learnt from the May and Major years.
He is at least doing something , far better than the last turkey he replaced, right or wrong , he has them all on the hop. The other party leaders are good at whining and whinging but sadly dire with any actions.
Parliamentary sovereignty is the cornerstone to our island's stability but if it ultimately rests on a Queen who won't defy her prime minister what good is it?
This has been a long time coming. I didn't fully appreciate the significance of the (advisory) referendum as a threat to parliamentary sovereignty. Why shouldn't parliament take the temperature of the nation? Others more expert than myself thought that it was more important than that because it pitted the sovereignty of parliament against the sovereignty of the people. I ought to have considered the enfeebled state respect for our great institutions were.
In 2005 a Labour government was returned with 21% support from eligible voters. Alistair Campbell pronounced that what the country clearly wanted was a Labour government with a reduced majority. After the exit poll of 2015, Michael Gove was put forward as a spokesman stating that the one thing the exit poll showed was that the Conservatives had clearly 'won' the election - the exit poll actually had them on 316 seats, 10 short of a majority.
Now we all know politicians use spin, that's what it's all about but the fact they could get away with such brazen statements tells you something.
Comments
Thats alredy been wargamed. Cummings is playing 4D chess.
On 31st October.
There's still time for the EU to come to the dance.
You win, or you die. This is the path we've been on for months.
https://www.ft.com/content/c8eacdfa-c375-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9
“But Ms Mann’s research supports the argument that globalisation makes countries richer in aggregate, and problems arise because governments fail to share the gains fairly or to compensate those who lose out.
Technology and the shift in consumption from goods to services have played a bigger part in the loss of manufacturing jobs in advanced economies than globalisation has, the report found.”
Ridiculous.
1) They still have a few days to pass legislation now before parliament leaves
2) If they get their VONC, they can vote down Boris, vote down any humble address or whatever on Corbyn, and hope that they then have the votes for $CARETAKER
Also even if Corbyn tables a VONC now and it loses, they can still come back in October and vote down the Queen's Speech, then try the maneuver again.
Cummings, however, is not as smart as he thinks he is, as illustrated by the basic failure of his reforms at DfE to achieve anything other than making "spag" an acceptable word for primary children to use in the playground.
I expect that (a) the grand plan will be leaked (b) the grand plan will go tits up.
As it is just another wizard wheeze from Boris it is fine! Infact it is democracy in action.
Cometh the hour cometh Houdini.
It won't be popular - with MPs, the Country at large, and, I suspect, the Queen.
This is the part which really hasn't been widely acknowledged.
Everyone has been arguing about whether or not we'll get a couple of months of chaos. Either way, that's survivable; it's the ensuing decade of slow decline which will do the most damage.
So confine your comment to the last 11 years and the situation is the opposite to the picture you are painting.
Within your 20 years, I would accept that the period prior to 2008 was one of steady improvements in net incomes and public services, even if the rate of improvement was starting to slow as 2008 approached. But that was a different world compared to this one.
And could you give "swivel-eyed" a rest in favour of something a bit more interesting? An easy challenge for a bright chap like you.
Plenty of literature studying other metrics to determine the cost/benefit of low skilled foreign workers has largely agreed that there is a benefit to the host country.
In an alternative, no immigrant world I don't think you'll find that you would get real wages, low unemployment, low inflation. What would you get? Not sure, plenty of moving parts but probably not the nirvana you are implying.
What I find interesting is that there is still a week of business in the first bit of September where Parliament could easily do another Letwin, and pass emergency legislation demanding that "if there is no deal agree by X date, the PM must ask the EU for an extension, and if offered one, accept it".
There is also enough time after the Oct 14th to enforce said emergency legislation or VONC the government if it looks like Johnson will refuse to do it. So really it is some can kicking to reduce parliamentary accountability (bad) but not the coup it looks like.
I don't disagree with Chorley too much, other than to suggest the Remain side have fewer levers of power to enact their wishes, and rather than dithering losing to ACTION, it is those without the power of government trying to find a route to power and Johnson just having those levers easily at his disposal.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1166625995736178689
I can't wait to have my salary paid in Euros in modern England, as a member of the EU.
But the fact is that shocks, whether endogenous or exogenous, aside, we have been getting richer these past few decades. And as I mentioned to @moonshine, what would the alternative have been? Given the influx of low skilled foreign workers' importance to the UK economy (yes at the expense of per capita GDP), can you honestly say that without the EU workers we wouldn't have had workers from other areas, as per most recent immigration stats? Who knows but not impossible, perhaps even likely.
In a GE I will vote for the party best to do that, it is called tactical voting
...FIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The lib dems achieved 20% in 2010 and in this climate could gain the seat. It will be a judgement call at the time of the election. I will not be canvassing or aiding the campaign
Edit : based on G's earlier reply can't work out where the yellow peril are actually strong in North Wales !Edit 2, right first time. Checked back to the 2010 records.
If Boris pulls it off I suspect he will briskly pivot to the centre - the marriage with the right is one of convenience. He simply needs a cabinet that will do his bidding and not leak etc. That's a lesson he's learnt from the May and Major years.
Opposition shouldn't panic, or obsess about process. Looks like yesterday scared Boris and quite rightly. I hope they take control of timetable in the first week back, pass Cooper II and make Boris own an extension request - that's what he really fears, not a VONC.
What's the odds on the Queen telling Rees-Mogg where to shove it today? Would be simply majestic.
The Lord Chancellor delivered the Queen's speech in those instances.
Can the Queen get knocked up in the next few weeks? You never know with modern science.
The response was a new global consensus where borders were opened, labour laws loosened, central banks made independent with the sole goal of price stability. The consequence of this was the return of economic growth and stable prices but at the cost of stagnant real wages for almost everyone in the developed world despite productivity growth. This was partially to the benefit of the global poor but mostly to the benefit of a small number in the entrepreneur class.
And that system has now reached breaking point. Brexit and Trump represent the masses rising up in protest at how they've been forced to become debt slaves just to stand still in life.
No one is talking about a No Immigration world, we'll leave that for the fringes. But one without any control mechanism across a highly varied economy such as Europe is madness. Unless of course your goal is explicitly the end of the nation state and social and economic convergence within the superstate at the cost of all else.
Bebb will not be standing and the labour candidate is a corbynista
So it will be a con or lib dem vote
Showing real leadership is alien to these unionist mugs.
Guto Bebb then. Must say I'd be tempted to vote for him whatever.
Edit: Just seen your later post. Has to be LD then, no?
The other party leaders are good at whining and whinging but sadly dire with any actions.
NEW THREAD
If there is a Coup, he may be refused re-entry into the Country, and you could be left in charge of the Site in perpetuity.
This has been a long time coming. I didn't fully appreciate the significance of the (advisory) referendum as a threat to parliamentary sovereignty. Why shouldn't parliament take the temperature of the nation? Others more expert than myself thought that it was more important than that because it pitted the sovereignty of parliament against the sovereignty of the people. I ought to have considered the enfeebled state respect for our great institutions were.
In 2005 a Labour government was returned with 21% support from eligible voters. Alistair Campbell pronounced that what the country clearly wanted was a Labour government with a reduced majority. After the exit poll of 2015, Michael Gove was put forward as a spokesman stating that the one thing the exit poll showed was that the Conservatives had clearly 'won' the election - the exit poll actually had them on 316 seats, 10 short of a majority.
Now we all know politicians use spin, that's what it's all about but the fact they could get away with such brazen statements tells you something.