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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Minister
It used to be so easy. For the period after the 2017 general election when Theresa May was Prime Minister, all you had to do was take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn’s enthusiasts and regularly lay him for next Prime Minister at the short prices that prevailed. Since she had made it plain that she was not going to fight the next election, so the circumstances in which he would be next Prime Minister were very limited indeed.
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First0
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Second like Corbyn at a general election.
(I still can’t believe how the circumstances of that photo came about).0 -
Shame this was not up yesterday because Corbyn's price has come in half a point across the board.0
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Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.0 -
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So Boris now has 30 days to put forward an alternative, you say.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
How many days did he have before the Merkel and Macron meetings?
Was it:
a) less than 30?
b) 30?
c) more than 30?0 -
Alistair Meeks greatly underestimates the likelihood (10%) that there will be a vote of no confidence in the present government with no alternative government being formed within the 14 days. Surely the chance of a no confidence vote being carried when parliament resumes is at least 50%, with it being more likely than not in those circumstances that no new PM could carry a vote of confidence within the 14 days. So something upwards of a 30% chance.0
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"There’s probably only a 10% chance of such an election which is just as well for Jeremy Corbyn because I’d give him only about a 20% chance of getting enough seats in such an election to form a government."
If there's an election before Brexit, Corbyn has a better chance than 20%.
It would be a stop brexit/2nd ref election, which *should* mean lots of tactical voting. I think that would probably help Lib and Lab more than Tories...
As an aside, nice piece. Would suggest maybe a table at the end could summarize the probabilities and make it a little easier for the reader to follow.0 -
Lovely stuff.
Point of order: end of the penultimate paragraph, references "being charitable", which implies some measure of prudence. However, in fact overestimating Corbyn's probability of becoming PM makes the bet look better, not worse, which means if you weren't "being charitable" he might not be such an obvious buy.
Not sure if I've interpreted correctly, but thought it worth pointing out since I agree that 1/3 is probably an overestimate and contributing quite a bit to total expected value.0 -
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:0 -
AStreeter said:
So Boris now has 30 days to put forward an alternative, you say.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
How many days did he have before the Merkel and Macron meetings?
Was it:
a) less than 30?
b) 30?
c) more than 30?0 -
Which is key.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
If the Remoaner Parliamentarians want to replace Johnson with a government of national unity (sic), they’ve got about a week at the beginning of September to get a confidence vote passed in a named new PM, else they guarantee both no-deal and Parliament not sitting when we leave the EU.
If they go for a VoNC without a new PM lined up, they’re playing with fire. High stakes.0 -
Why?Philip_Thompson said:
AStreeter said:
So Boris now has 30 days to put forward an alternative, you say.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
How many days did he have before the Merkel and Macron meetings?
Was it:
a) less than 30?
b) 30?
c) more than 30?0 -
Nick Boles has said he will not back a VONC in Boris while he is negotiating with the EU. Others no doubt will say the same.Wulfrun_Phil said:Alistair Meeks greatly underestimates the likelihood (10%) that there will be a vote of no confidence in the present government with no alternative government being formed within the 14 days. Surely the chance of a no confidence vote being carried when parliament resumes is at least 50%, with it being more likely than not in those circumstances that no new PM could carry a vote of confidence within the 14 days. So something upwards of a 30% chance.
Therefore the chance of a VONC being carried when Parliament resumes is close to 0%, the numbers are not there.0 -
I think Boris will still be PM on 31st October, whatever happens. Corbyn is likely to shorten at that point, again - whatever happens.0
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And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:0 -
They could no confidence Boris and then give him confidence again when other options fail.Sandpit said:
Which is key.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
If the Remoaner Parliamentarians want to replace Johnson with a government of national unity (sic), they’ve got about a week at the beginning of September to get a confidence vote passed in a named new PM, else they guarantee both no-deal and Parliament not sitting when we leave the EU.
If they go for a VoNC without a new PM lined up, they’re playing with fire. High stakes.0 -
For the same reason Britain couldn't negotiate its EU exit prior to invoking Article 50. Because the EU wasn't talking.Streeter said:
Why?Philip_Thompson said:
AStreeter said:
So Boris now has 30 days to put forward an alternative, you say.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
How many days did he have before the Merkel and Macron meetings?
Was it:
a) less than 30?
b) 30?
c) more than 30?
A solution does not exist in the ether. It is not a thing that naturally exists waiting to be discovered. It isn't a real object like a mountain or river. It is a compromise that must be agreed and negotiated between both parties - unless both parties can negotiate and ratify it, it is meaningless. Any amount of alternative arrangements can be suggested which may or may not be acceptable but without all relevant parties engaging they are meaningless. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
While official negotiations where ongoing Robbins and May were leading them and Boris wasn't in charge. He had no time then.
After Boris became PM but until yesterday the EU was saying the WDA couldn't be amended. Macron even said it earlier today, but then said something different after meeting Boris today.
Now he has time, before he had none. 30 > 0 therefore A is the answer to your question.0 -
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
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I would like to echo the congratulations to Big_G's granddaughter and to anyone else in the country celebrating their results today.1
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Looking at the bet the other way, if not Corbyn then who? Boris wins a GE and presumably stays for 5 more years at least. In that case, next PM is highly probably, after 14 years of a Tory government, an opposition figure.
So, it may be worth laying all Tories on the list. Difficult to see how it would be one in other than exceptional circumstances. And were it to be so, it is unlikely to be any of the older cohort.
I am increasingly not buying the GNU btw.0 -
Another way to look at this is that Labour "Most seats" is 4.5. If both Corbyn and Johnson are in place come the next election then Labour equalling the Tories in seats means Corbyn becomes PM as surely night follows day.
He can become PM with less seats than the blues too (The SNP will never back Johnson), simply put Labour's "friends" are likely to be larger in number next parliament than the Tories.0 -
That would be the sensible way to do it, but I’m not seeing an awful lot of sensible around right now.tlg86 said:
They could no confidence Boris and then give him confidence again when other options fail.Sandpit said:
Which is key.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
If the Remoaner Parliamentarians want to replace Johnson with a government of national unity (sic), they’ve got about a week at the beginning of September to get a confidence vote passed in a named new PM, else they guarantee both no-deal and Parliament not sitting when we leave the EU.
If they go for a VoNC without a new PM lined up, they’re playing with fire. High stakes.
It would result in no deal, but with Parliament sitting so anything that needed urgent legislation could be accommodated.0 -
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
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Well there is currently Ken Clarke at 20s !dixiedean said:Looking at the bet the other way, if not Corbyn then who? Boris wins a GE and presumably stays for 5 more years at least. In that case, next PM is highly probably, after 14 years of a Tory government, an opposition figure.
So, it may be worth laying all Tories on the list. Difficult to see how it would be one in other than exceptional circumstances. And were it to be so, it is unlikely to be any of the older cohort.
I am increasingly not buying the GNU btw.0 -
d) fewer than 30?Streeter said:
So Boris now has 30 days to put forward an alternative, you say.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
How many days did he have before the Merkel and Macron meetings?
Was it:
a) less than 30?
b) 30?
c) more than 30?0 -
There's been a lot of talk about Boris barricading himself into Number 10. What if, on being no confidenced, he goes straight to the palace and tells the Queen to send for [Corbyn, Clarke, A N Other]?Sandpit said:
That would be the sensible way to do it, but I’m not seeing an awful lot of sensible around right now.tlg86 said:
They could no confidence Boris and then give him confidence again when other options fail.Sandpit said:
Which is key.Philip_Thompson said:Boris's 30 day window precludes a successful VONC and VOC in Corbyn in September realistically now.
There was little-enough chance of Parliament uniting when it looked like Brussels was rejecting Boris's negotiations out of hand, to do so while negotiations are ongoing seems a definite lay.
October maybe, but not September.
If the Remoaner Parliamentarians want to replace Johnson with a government of national unity (sic), they’ve got about a week at the beginning of September to get a confidence vote passed in a named new PM, else they guarantee both no-deal and Parliament not sitting when we leave the EU.
If they go for a VoNC without a new PM lined up, they’re playing with fire. High stakes.
It would result in no deal, but with Parliament sitting so anything that needed urgent legislation could be accommodated.0 -
She isn't some remainer chess piece to be pushed about the board come what may. Bercow might change precedence to suit, the Queen will always act "on the advice of her ministers".Scott_P said:
The Queen gets activatedSandpit said:And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?
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He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.0 -
Corbyn is the LOTO and rightfully expects to be put into bat should Johnson's wicket fall. Which is precisely why Johnson will survive a VoNC because everyone knows who is next up.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.1 -
Such a law does not exist. Established convention requires a PM that has lost the confidence of the commons to either resign or call a general election. He would be doing one of those things.Scott_P said:
If BoZo ignores a law requiring him to resign, he wouldn't be one of her ministers...Pulpstar said:the Queen will always act "on the advice of her ministers".
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It is not a GNU. It is a Goverment To Cause The Most Almighty Shit-fest About Sidelining Democracy.dixiedean said:
I am increasingly not buying the GNU btw.
Anyway, Merkel's 30 Days to Save the EU has given Boris more than enough breathing space. (A cannier leader would have said "You have 30 days to make proposals - but we need to extend to 30th November to cover it. Your call, Boris....")
Which would have left him in something of a bind.1 -
Sorry Jeremy, we've put in a night watcman. To watch the night of October 31st become the morning of 1st November....Pulpstar said:
Corbyn is the LOTO and rightfully expects to be put into bat should Johnson's wicket fall. Which is precisely why Johnson will survive a VoNC because everyone knows who is next up.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.1 -
I too made a tidy sum laying Corbyn in the previous Next PM market. But I am on the opposite side to Alistair on this one. I'm short at an average 4.3 and am more than happy with that.
The main reason is that I disagree with the header on a key point. I do not think (sadly) that this country has appetite for radical economic reform of the Left variety unless it is combined with a good dose of xenophobic nationalism (which Corbyn to his credit has no time for), and therefore the ONLY non-exotic way that he gets to be PM is in the event of a PRE Brexit election - where Remainer tactical voting gives him a good chance of achieving a minority Labour government with a mandate to deliver Ref2.
So, a 30% chance of a GE before Brexit (IMO) and a 30% chance of Labour doing well enough in that election to make him PM.
Meaning his chances of being our next PM are 9%. Round up a bit to allow for the more unlikely scenarios. Say 15%. About 1 in 6.0 -
I would expect that Lizzie would expect any PM to act lawfully. If one was refusing to, then he/she wouldn't be appointed in the first place.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.
I expect in these uncharted waters, she would send for Corbyn.0 -
I agree. There won’t be a successful VoNC on Johnson because everyone knows that no-one else can command a majority, and if they can’t agree on a successor then we have an election after the Brexit date.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn is the LOTO and rightfully expects to be put into bat should Johnson's wicket fall. Which is precisely why Johnson will survive a VoNC because everyone knows who is next up.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.0 -
"a law requiring him to resign" - it's called a (succesful) 'Vote of no confidence', and is a well established principle of parliamentary practice. We've discussed it plenty upthread. I fear your thinking is getting... wishful.Scott_P said:
If BoZo ignores a law requiring him to resign, he wouldn't be one of her ministers...Pulpstar said:the Queen will always act "on the advice of her ministers".
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Another market we're on the opposite sides ofkinabalu said:I too made a tidy sum laying Corbyn in the previous Next PM market. But I am on the opposite side to Alistair on this one. I'm short at an average 4.3 and am more than happy with that.
The main reason is that I disagree with the header on a key point. I do not think (sadly) that this country has appetite for radical economic reform of the Left variety unless it is combined with a good dose of xenophobic nationalism (which Corbyn to his credit has no time for), and therefore the ONLY non-exotic way that he gets to be PM is in the event of a PRE Brexit election - where Remainer tactical voting gives him a good chance of achieving a minority Labour government with a mandate to deliver Ref2.
So, a 30% chance of a GE before Brexit (IMO) and a 30% chance of Labour doing well enough in that election to make him PM.
Meaning his chances of being our next PM are 9%. Round up a bit to allow for the more unlikely scenarios. Say 15%. About 1 in 6.
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She knows that Corbyn can’t command a majority.Slackbladder said:
I would expect that Lizzie would expect any PM to act lawfully. If one was refusing to, then he/she wouldn't be appointed in the first place.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.
I expect in these uncharted waters, she would send for Corbyn.0 -
Just noticed third favourite is one N Farage at 16-1.0
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Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=210 -
Some Sunday schoolin'.
Shocking that a grandson of Lewis doesn't have a favourite Bible verse.
https://twitter.com/Caring_Atheist/status/1164255516878446592?s=200 -
+1, and damn you. That was the analogy I was looking for!MarqueeMark said:
Sorry Jeremy, we've put in a night watcman. To watch the night of October 31st become the morning of 1st November....Pulpstar said:
Corbyn is the LOTO and rightfully expects to be put into bat should Johnson's wicket fall. Which is precisely why Johnson will survive a VoNC because everyone knows who is next up.Sandpit said:
He would probably tell HM that he (honestly) doesn’t know who could command the Commons.Slackbladder said:
Well presumably he would either be breaking the law if he refused, or he would have to name a new PM upon resignation, and the duty then falls to them.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
To play devils advocate, maybe he suggests that she first calls Michael Gove. Who turns up, kisses hands, waits a couple of hours and returns to the Palace, suggesting Dominic Raab, who resigns at 22:55GMT.
Beer o’clock in the sandpit, laters all!0 -
Never mind about the Bible being 'special', that interview surely is ...Theuniondivvie said:Some Sunday schoolin'.
Shocking that a grandson of Lewis doesn't have a favourite Bible verse.
https://twitter.com/Caring_Atheist/status/1164255516878446592?s=200 -
There are several stonking lays in that market if you've got the cash to tie up: Ken Clarke, Jo Swinson, Rory Stewart (!), Nigel Farage, Caroline Lucas. It would be nice for old times' sake to add David Miliband to the list.Pulpstar said:
I've asked betfair to add David Miliband as a runnerdixiedean said:Just noticed third favourite is one N Farage at 16-1.
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You've forgotten the FTPA. He has to wait 14 days while the Commons tries to figure out a) if there's anyone they actually do have confidence in and b) how to signal HM once they've settled on a candidate.Gabs2 said:
Such a law does not exist. Established convention requires a PM that has lost the confidence of the commons to either resign or call a general election. He would be doing one of those things.Scott_P said:
If BoZo ignores a law requiring him to resign, he wouldn't be one of her ministers...Pulpstar said:the Queen will always act "on the advice of her ministers".
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I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:0 -
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?3 -
Yes, things are moving very fast today and with Macron unexpectedly opening the door to further negotiations this morning I would agree that the chance of a VONC being carried in early September is less than 50% (but still more than 10%). That's simply because negotiations could well still be ongoing at that point and if so it will be harder to get the votes to bring Johnson down. So less prospect too of a GE before 31st October.Philip_Thompson said:
Nick Boles has said he will not back a VONC in Boris while he is negotiating with the EU. Others no doubt will say the same.Wulfrun_Phil said:Alistair Meeks greatly underestimates the likelihood (10%) that there will be a vote of no confidence in the present government with no alternative government being formed within the 14 days. Surely the chance of a no confidence vote being carried when parliament resumes is at least 50%, with it being more likely than not in those circumstances that no new PM could carry a vote of confidence within the 14 days. So something upwards of a 30% chance.
Therefore the chance of a VONC being carried when Parliament resumes is close to 0%, the numbers are not there.
Johnson will though want an election soon after the UK has left and will either force once (aka 2017) if he secures enough concessions to sign up to an amended agreement (going to the country in a position of strength) or be (quite willingly) forced into one by a VONC that takes place too late to stop a no deal Brexit and thus removes the point of installing any other temporary PM (with the Brexit Party vote returning en masse to the Conservatives). I cannot remotely envisage Corbyn becoming PM after an election taking place in either set of circumstances - it is more likely that he would lose badly enough to be forced out as LOTO.0 -
To be fair, "South" does not appear anywhere in the official name of the state she's just concluded the agreement with.williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=210 -
Been away from the world this morning and return to find the £ has jumped up by a cent. Has something happened?0
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Which news channel is running with the story that things are running very fast with Macron opening the door to further negotiations?0
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Perhaps Trump could buy North Korea?williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=21
Everybody happy.....maybe.0 -
Never seen so many false shots in my life !0
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Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.0 -
The EU leaders have made clear to Boris that, as he claims to want No Deal, he can jolly well go away and find a solution to the Irish border problem. Of course, this is the situation we've been in for years, but the hope must be that putting it in such stark terms will focus Boris's mind.IanB2 said:Been away from the world this morning and return to find the £ has jumped up by a cent. Has something happened?
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On current polling I would say Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman are more likely to be PM than Corbyn, given not one current poll gives a Labour majority and even the best polls for Labour show them needing LD as well as SNP support to form a Government and Swinson has said the LDs would vote against a Corbyn Premiership just as they would vote against a Boris Premiership again but they would vote for a Clarke or Harman Premiership0
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Maybe Denmark should put in a bid for Florida?williamglenn said:0 -
The Apple credit card looking to be a bit shit.
"When not in use, Apple Card should be returned to a uniformly lit white cube," joked Alex Stamos, Facebook's former chief security officer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49435687
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I think that parallel universe will be visible to us for about 30 days.nichomar said:Which news channel is running with the story that things are running very fast with Macron opening the door to further negotiations?
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Mr. Divvie, come on. We all know Trump loves John Ch8, v7.0
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Thou shalt not grabbeth the pussy? ...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, come on. We all know Trump loves John Ch8, v7.
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Yes, an extension looks nailed on to me. Angela's warm albeit ambiguous words have given Boris enough cover to persuade the euro-sceptic press that he's made a chink in the EU's armour and just needs more time. They'll swallow it - they've got too much invested in Boris to destroy him just yet. Nigel will moan, but who is he?kinabalu said:
The first straws in the wind for the inevitable art 50 extension.IanB2 said:Been away from the world this morning and return to find the £ has jumped up by a cent. Has something happened?
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What would the court case be? That a PM can't call a general election when receiving a loss of confidence? That is what happened in 1979 and many times since. I am not a lawyer, but the FTPA doesn't seem to change any of that. It just mandates a 14 day waiting period.AlastairMeeks said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.0 -
The title of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a fairly big clue that your assumption that it hasn't changed things is wrong.Gabs2 said:
What would the court case be? That a PM can't call a general election when receiving a loss of confidence? That is what happened in 1979 and many times since. I am not a lawyer, but the FTPA doesn't seem to change any of that. It just mandates a 14 day waiting period.AlastairMeeks said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.0 -
The FTPA says a GE must be held if there is a vote of no confidence as long as there is no reversal in 14 days. It does not say anything about the PM having to resign in the interim.AlastairMeeks said:
The title of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a fairly big clue that your assumption that it hasn't changed things is wrong.Gabs2 said:
What would the court case be? That a PM can't call a general election when receiving a loss of confidence? That is what happened in 1979 and many times since. I am not a lawyer, but the FTPA doesn't seem to change any of that. It just mandates a 14 day waiting period.AlastairMeeks said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.0 -
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Ah I am not alone. Relief!Stark_Dawning said:Yes, an extension looks nailed on to me. Angela's warm albeit ambiguous words have given Boris enough cover to persuade the euro-sceptic press that he's made a chink in the EU's armour and just needs more time. They'll swallow it - they've got too much invested in Boris to destroy him just yet. Nigel will moan, but who is he?
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No it does not. It does, however, expressly anticipate that votes of confidence will be possible after that point. I expect that the courts would prevent a Prime Minister who had been no-confidenced from frustrating that possibility.Gabs2 said:
The FTPA says a GE must be held if there is a vote of no confidence as long as there is no reversal in 14 days. It does not say anything about the PM having to resign in the interim.AlastairMeeks said:
The title of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a fairly big clue that your assumption that it hasn't changed things is wrong.Gabs2 said:
What would the court case be? That a PM can't call a general election when receiving a loss of confidence? That is what happened in 1979 and many times since. I am not a lawyer, but the FTPA doesn't seem to change any of that. It just mandates a 14 day waiting period.AlastairMeeks said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?Slackbladder said:
Really the only practical way to 'block no deal' is to write something which dicates the PM (whoever that is) to revoke Art50 in the event of no-deal.Scott_P said:
The effort that has gone into trying to stop Brexit is staggering. It's a shame none of this zeal was present during the referendum campaign. But then, why bother, when you think you've got the system rigged to get your own way regardless?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.0 -
Truss is right and you are wrong. Their name is simply Republic of Korea.williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=21
They have never been called South, never claimed to be South and do not call themselves South. South Korea is an informal name used in the west that they don't use and to use it formally would be diplomatically insulting them.
While signing a formal agreement with the Republic of Korea, for a British minister to refer to South Korea would be like signing an agreement with Ireland and calling them Southern Ireland.0 -
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It doesn't need to be very different. It just needs to not have the backstop, the rest of the deal we can live with as per the Brady Amendment.Scott_P said:0 -
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0
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ERG can't live with any of the WA as far as I can see.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't need to be very different. It just needs to not have the backstop, the rest of the deal we can live with as per the Brady Amendment.Scott_P said:
Nor will Farage.0 -
"Mirror mirror on the wallAlastairMeeks said:
Who's the thickest journo of all"
Peter Oborne asked
"It's a close call" replied the mirror
"But Chris Hope has surpassed your effort in the Mail"0 -
Never say never but Labour in general and Corbyn in particular are in a very bad place right now. Their polling of late has been truly terrible in the face of a government that is facing a myriad of challenges with not much more than good humour and enthusiasm. In any election held under such a scenario I expect Labour to lose seats the Tories, the Lib Dems and the SNP. They may even find others to lose seats to such as the Greens or PC.
If that is right then the only way this bet comes off is some sort of GNU in the current Parliament. Given the attitude of the Lib Dems and sundry independents I really can't see Corbyn pulling that off. If anything the Betfair odds look a little generous to me.0 -
I see the rain is doing it's best to fill in for Steve Smith at Headingley.0
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They can have any state that voted Trump as far as I am concerned.logical_song said:
Maybe Denmark should put in a bid for Florida?williamglenn said:0 -
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Thank the lord we are leaving. To describe this as 1970s thinking would be unfair to that decade.Scott_P said:0 -
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Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't need to be very different. It just needs to not have the backstop, the rest of the deal we can live with as per the Brady Amendment.
Waste of time with current parliamentary arithmetic. The spartans will vote against any deal, because they want no further links with the EU at all. Corbyn will vote against any deal, because he wants a crash exit the Tories get blamed for.
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What's wrong with a sovereign wealth fund ?DavidL said:
Thank the lord we are leaving. To describe this as 1970s thinking would be unfair to that decade.Scott_P said:
I know it's an idea that's anathema to spend and borrow UK but China, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand all have one bringing in regular dividends, growth and whatnot - and they all have very different systems of Gov't. A national pension fund if you will. I think it looks very fiscally prudent though I'd agree that it should not solely buy EU equities.0 -
No, West and East Germany is a better example, neither of which had West or East in their official names.Philip_Thompson said:
Truss is right and you are wrong. Their name is simply Republic of Korea.williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=21
They have never been called South, never claimed to be South and do not call themselves South. South Korea is an informal name used in the west that they don't use and to use it formally would be diplomatically insulting them.
While signing a formal agreement with the Republic of Korea, for a British minister to refer to South Korea would be like signing an agreement with Ireland and calling them Southern Ireland.0 -
I think to be fair to Truss if "Korea" in a friendly economic context is referred to we can take it to mean South Korea, the same as if she said "China" we certainly wouldn't take it to mean the Republic of China.williamglenn said:
No, West and East Germany is a better example, neither of which had West or East in their official names.Philip_Thompson said:
Truss is right and you are wrong. Their name is simply Republic of Korea.williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=21
They have never been called South, never claimed to be South and do not call themselves South. South Korea is an informal name used in the west that they don't use and to use it formally would be diplomatically insulting them.
While signing a formal agreement with the Republic of Korea, for a British minister to refer to South Korea would be like signing an agreement with Ireland and calling them Southern Ireland.0 -
So despite all the sniping things have actually gone pretty well for Boris with both Angie and Macron?
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Be that as it may, Truss used the appropriate title. You could just acknowledge your mistake.williamglenn said:
No, West and East Germany is a better example, neither of which had West or East in their official names.Philip_Thompson said:
Truss is right and you are wrong. Their name is simply Republic of Korea.williamglenn said:Liz Truss has unified Korea while we weren’t paying attention.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1164510238348849157?s=21
They have never been called South, never claimed to be South and do not call themselves South. South Korea is an informal name used in the west that they don't use and to use it formally would be diplomatically insulting them.
While signing a formal agreement with the Republic of Korea, for a British minister to refer to South Korea would be like signing an agreement with Ireland and calling them Southern Ireland.1 -
Yes, I agree with you on that. Where we differ is our interpretations of what Johnson has actually said he'll do: you are taking his threat to "refuse to resign" at face value, while I think it's just a reflection of the fact that he "knows" no-one will be able to win a confidence vote. He doesn't see why he should have to resign to prove that point and allow (say) Ken Clarke to extend Article 50 prior to any election, just because Dominic Grieve thinks he's found a loophole in the FTPA (which it turns out was worded unbelievably vaguely).AlastairMeeks said:
No it does not. It does, however, expressly anticipate that votes of confidence will be possible after that point. I expect that the courts would prevent a Prime Minister who had been no-confidenced from frustrating that possibility.Gabs2 said:
The FTPA says a GE must be held if there is a vote of no confidence as long as there is no reversal in 14 days. It does not say anything about the PM having to resign in the interim.AlastairMeeks said:
The title of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a fairly big clue that your assumption that it hasn't changed things is wrong.Gabs2 said:
What would the court case be? That a PM can't call a general election when receiving a loss of confidence?AlastairMeeks said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. A case will be heard in time for any decision to make a difference.Endillion said:
Oh, great. Another lawyer who thinks our judicial system exists solely to prevent stuff they don't like from happening.DougSeal said:
I’m pretty sure an expedited hearing would get to the Supreme Court double quick in a matter of such importance. There would likely be a leapfrog over the CoA I would have thought.algarkirk said:
The two powers that can dictate to a PM are an Act of Parliament and an order of the court. In practice the second would mean the Supreme Court - the second level of appeal following the Court of Appeal - which isn't all that quick. I don't think these routes are going to be taken successfully.Sandpit said:
And what happens if Boris resigns to HMQ on 31st October, as he refuses to carry out that instruction?
That does not mean that the decision would necessarily go one way or the other.
I agree with his point (assuming I've interpreted it correctly, for what it's worth. In either case, the original point wasn't about the FTPA, it was about whether the courts could force Johnson to revoke on Oct 31 if he resigned rather than do so (see first post in the chain)!0
This discussion has been closed.