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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters give the Tories a 67% chance of winning most seats but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters give the Tories a 67% chance of winning most seats but just a 32% one of securing a majority
Six months chart of Betfair movements from Betdata.io
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It's also a situation that could change rapidly over the coming weeks, in either direction.
Edit: and first.
I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.
I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.
Meanwhile Labour Deputy PM Tom Watson bypasses Jeremy Corbyn to begin direct talks with the LDs on stopping Brexit
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9716641/philip-hammond-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-letter/
Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.
Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.
If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up
I suspect he will have a very good campaign.
There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.
No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.
She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"
Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.
1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.
2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.
1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.
On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.
And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....
The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.
And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...
Which is why Boris is likely to win most seats but won't win a majority..
Are they about to jump ship to the LibDems?
I think that it's more likely than not that 2017 was a high water mark for Corbyn. My central scenario would probably have both Labour/Tories losing net seats. 22% looks about right to me.
Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.
It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?
Odd that the confidence in Johnson's campaigning abilities did not extend to letting him out of the basement for the Conservative leadership election.
There was no evidence of a Boris bounce, if anything the reverse. Despite everything, that is a seat the Tories should have held. They lost by a far bigger margin than those of us who knew he seat were predicting, due to the collapse of a very tribal Labour vote in a deprived ex-industrial area to the Liberal Democrats. As I have repeatedly said that should worry Labour, but it should also worry you.
Might we not see a double-fronted attack?
First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.
Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.
It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.
I don’t see the evidence for that. I don’t think there’d be much in it but I’d rate Boris narrowly ahead just because Corbyn’s dogma is so predictable.
We're on a voyage into the unknown. Anything could happen in the next month or so.
I suspect LibDems in Arfon or Ynys Môn are probably more likely either to not vote or to vote Labour than Plaid Cymru -- if the LibDems are not standing.
I have still to hear what Plaid Cymru got in return for not standing in Brecon & Radnorshire.
1. Tories saying let's make the most of these new opportunities. Positive, gung ho, fronted by positive, gung ho Boris.
2. LibDems saying "we don't LIKE these new opportunities - we want the world how it was. Let's rejoin!"
3. SNP's stuck record saying "referendum"
4. DUP saying "NO! (What was the question?)"
5. Labour saying "Jeremy...Jeremy? What the fuck are we saying, Jeremy?"
EDIT:
6. The Brexit Party saying nothing.
But that would leave an awkward twelve month gap of no new students coming in, so it will never happen.
Anti-Conservative tactical voting could come roaring back, as Labour types are quite happy to 'reluctantly' abandon Corbyn and support the Lib Dems.
Both fucking irritating not much in it tbh.
My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.
Betting on the outcome of the next election should be done with caution at the moment because of the huge imponderables. No Overall Majority looks a worthy favorite but no bargain at 1.7.
However much HYUFD jumps up and down, Parliament isn't going to let it happen. I suspect Cummings & Co know this too and they're deliberately stoking the fire, preparing for an Us vs Them vote. (Which is the kind of language Cummings speaks.)
The only way an Oct 31st Brexit would have occurred was a modified May deal. Johnson has chosen to throw that out the window and set down his own red lines.
It's a shame there's no time scale on the graph. Whilst the latest odds look fair, it is quite likely this will continue to be a fast moving market. I'd be inclined to sell the Tories on the basis that the two most likely upsets - a further extension or a chaotic no deal exit - both present significant risks for the Tories (or at least will certainly be seen by punters as doing so) and their odds then fall back.
If they can, it would make sense from their perspective, because of the prospect of a Leader emerging who would be prepared to negotiate rather than lay down further red lines.
It could be joyful and triumphant.
It could be like diving into a cold pool of water- an initial shock, but quickly invigorating.
It could be a tar pit, where nothing happens at first, we just get... stuck.
It could be a fiasco that unravels in a week.
You can make a not-totally-stupid case for each of these. (FWIW, my hunch is that something small and unexpected will turn out to make the whole thing fall apart- a black mosquito rather than a black swan, if you like.)
But the reputation of the government come election day could be anything.
A lot depends on whether Unite to Remain will give the nod to soft peddle against Remainer Labour MPs. So far this is being denied - the official position is that participation will require give and take, and at national level Labour isn't willing to give. This does deny access to UtR funds for Labour candidates. However as the campaign nears I still think it likely that some degree of soft peddling against Labour remainers is very likely, with this then feeding through to LibDem and Green voters looking to vote tactically.
I think a year off can be advantageous for some students, but it is probably the wealthier ones (whose parents can afford to subsidise them in some travel) that benefit the most. But, for some students, it is just a wasted year doing little or nothing.
I don't think a plan to make a year off compulsory would be popular.
People underestimate Boris all the time - and at their peril. So far he has got all he has wanted. He isn't going to lightly give up any of it.
OK, time I went. Gotta long journey.
Play nicely everyone.
Alex Salmond's £500k legal bill to be paid by taxpayer after botched probe
Court rules the ex-First Minister's expenses from a successful judicial review into how complaints from civl servants were handled should be paid.
The former First Minister has been paid £512,250 to cover his expenses from a successful judicial review into how complaints from civil servants were handled.
The Record told last year how two women had made complaints of sexual misconduct against Salmond dating back to his time as First Minister.
But the findings of the Scottish Government investigation into the allegations were struck down in court after they admitted their own guidelines had been breached by the appointment of an investigating officer with “prior involvement” in the case.
At a hearing in Edinburgh, Lord Pentland said the Scottish Government’s actions were “unlawful in the respect that they were procedurally unfair and that they were tainted with apparent bias”.
I wish Humphries had picked up IDS on this as he (IDS) a few minutes later charged Hammond with making no preparations.
I think Lab has done so much damage to its reputation for Remainers that it is not going to get that tactical vote. Of course that could mean LDs are getting votes where they don't need them.
http://www.cao.ie/?page=offerdates
It does seem really incompetent that Angela Rayner didn't know about this and wasn't able to refer to it on the radio, though.
Still, parrot it if you wish in the University seats.
We transitioned to post age 19 entry over several years. One way to do it is to permit offers on predictions, but to give added points to those with certified results.
It is not only fairer on the students, but also gives certainty for bo th University and student on where they are. There has been a bit rise in unconditional offers for this reason, but makes far better sense post results.
I suspect though that Parliament might enact the necessary legislation first, and then consider the VONC issue second. Disentangling the two makes a lot of sense and is more likely to win the support of Remainer Tories.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1161322829591322625?s=20