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Logic doesn't seem to sway these referendums though does it?HYUFD said:
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UKBenpointer said:
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...HYUFD said:
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014Benpointer said:
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.HYUFD said:
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlierBenpointer said:
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.HYUFD said:
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh peopleYBarddCwsc said:I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.0 -
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .Philip_Thompson said:
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.nico67 said:
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.nico67 said:It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
There's no moral hazard here.
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.0 -
Spot on.FF43 said:I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.0 -
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56% of UK exports now go outside the EU and 52% of UK voters voted to leave the EU, there was thus some logic in that.Benpointer said:
Logic doesn't seem to sway these referendums though does it?HYUFD said:
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UKBenpointer said:
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...HYUFD said:
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014Benpointer said:
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.HYUFD said:
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlierBenpointer said:
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.HYUFD said:
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh peopleYBarddCwsc said:I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.
Until over 50% of Scottish exports go outside the rUK there is less logic in Scottish voters voting to leave the UK0 -
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You and I are consistent. Coming at it from opposite viewpoints, but consistent.FF43 said:I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.
You believe unions are a good thing, so you want No and Remain.
I believe independence is a good thing, so I want Yes and Leave.
What surprises me is how many people, like the SNP back Yes and Remain, or like many Tories back No and Leave.
Seem to be a lot of people who want to leave one union but remain in the other.0 -
Interesting - the great LD surge stalls.Scott_P said:0 -
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter0 -
Remainer opposes Leaving. Quelle surprise!Scott_P said:
Brown said that about Leaving in the first place. How is this news?0 -
That's the first poll since for ever that has showed any movement in the combined Con+BXP vote. 2% isn't a huge amount, thoughScott_P said:0 -
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OK Cassandra.nico67 said:
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .Philip_Thompson said:
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.nico67 said:
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.nico67 said:It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
There's no moral hazard here.
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
Transition to being an independent country. Like many countries across the globe. Canada, Japan, Australia - lots of countries manage to be independent just fine, why can't we?0 -
So your interpretation of a "bounce" has now come down to just 0.5%. Do you read your own posts before submitting them ?HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
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The unions aren't the same though. One is a pragmatic democratic solution for all of us on an island. The other is a contrived undemocratic solution that can only lead to a mess of a super-state.Philip_Thompson said:
You and I are consistent. Coming at it from opposite viewpoints, but consistent.FF43 said:I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.
You believe unions are a good thing, so you want No and Remain.
I believe independence is a good thing, so I want Yes and Leave.
What surprises me is how many people, like the SNP back Yes and Remain, or like many Tories back No and Leave.
Seem to be a lot of people who want to leave one union but remain in the other.0 -
With all the usual caveats about one poll, etc it does suggest that Ms Swinson should put a hold on any plans to order curtains, etc for number 10.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
And...Nissan will move up North a couple of hundred miles with its supporting industries.HYUFD said:
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU and no FTA with rUK, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UKBenpointer said:
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...HYUFD said:
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014Benpointer said:
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.HYUFD said:
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlierBenpointer said:
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.HYUFD said:
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh peopleYBarddCwsc said:I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.
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Quick - call an election then!HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter0 -
Rofl - smack in the face for McDonnell. Flipflopflipflopfliopioflipflpop!Scott_P said:0 -
It's because the LDs, rightly or wrongly, think Plaid aren't really a threat currently; they know the SNP are. What that says about how seriously the LDs take Plaid and how many thinks they'd have before discarding them is another thing.YBarddCwsc said:
And indeed, the hypocrisy of this is telling.HYUFD said:
They aren't in Scotland, they are in Wales though it seemsLuckyguy1983 said:
If the Lib Dems are planning to stand aside and let Nationalist parties have a free run in return, that's incredibly damaging to the LD brand in the long term. Oh well.HYUFD said:
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of Welsh voters to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh peopleYBarddCwsc said:I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
Plaid Cymru want an independent Wales, but the LibDems are happy to make Remain Alliances.
The SNP want an independent Scotland, but a Remain Alliance with the SNP is a no go.0 -
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
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Nothing has changed?????????HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
We are independent.Philip_Thompson said:
OK Cassandra.nico67 said:
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .Philip_Thompson said:
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.nico67 said:
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.nico67 said:It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
There's no moral hazard here.
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
Transition to being an independent country. Like many countries across the globe. Canada, Japan, Australia - lots of countries manage to be independent just fine, why can't we?0 -
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.0
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A bounce is a bounce and that comes on top of the previous Boris bounce in the last Opinium pollsurbiton19 said:
So your interpretation of a "bounce" has now come down to just 0.5%. Do you read your own posts before submitting them ?HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter0 -
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Plus ca change perhapsfelix said:
Nothing has changed?????????HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Or - Broken Sleazy Lib Dems on the Slide0 -
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?0 -
Just as well they need us more than we need them, eh?anothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
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Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
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As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?1 -
Again, remainers ascribing catastrophic labels to what would be a democratic decision by the people of Scotland.Benpointer said:
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.
Anything that doesn't fit with their viewpoint, even when they are in the minority, engenders a rage bordering on psychosis.0 -
Going into a general election with a huge 3 point lead at a time of unprecedented political volatility is obviously going to carry Johnson to a historic victory.Benpointer said:
Quick - call an election then!HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
Or perhaps not.0 -
Got an example of that abuse?JBriskinindyref2 said:
"Remainer snowflakes" LOL - all you do is dish out abuse to anyone who dares think the 2016 referendum result should be implemented.Benpointer said:Given we appear to be heading towards a cliff-edge Brexit, could one of the PB No Deal supporters produce a thread header that explains how it's all going to pan out and why we Remainer snowflakes need not worry?
More to the point... how is no deal going to pan out? Please tell me because I'd love to know.0 -
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
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Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Had remainers in Parliament not blocked the deal it would have been Project Fear.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Que sera sera.0 -
Welcome to PB.Benpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
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The SNP aren't the separatists anymore, we are.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
0 -
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Scott_P said:
If the next GE is all Brexit (and it would seem clear that it will be) then Labour are in a dreadful position.
Their hardcore unthinking tribalists will stick with them but the vast majority will be polarized around the two distinct options.
With their current positioning Labour are going to get steamrollered.0 -
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?Theuniondivvie said:
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
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Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?0 -
I'll class you as a soft cybernat when you post as much garbage as Mr GlennPhilip_Thompson said:
The SNP aren't the separatists anymore, we are.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
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HM rule by decree incoming?Scott_P said:
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https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1160202943993393152anothernick said:Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
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Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
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Won't matter while the Brexit wars are still in progress.Luckyguy1983 said:
If the Lib Dems are planning to stand aside and let Nationalist parties have a free run in return, that's incredibly damaging to the LD brand in the long term. Oh well.HYUFD said:
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of Welsh voters to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh peopleYBarddCwsc said:I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?0 -
The key to the election is whether Labour voters switch to LD enough faster than Conservatives switching to the BP in Labour marginals, to compensate for the opposite effect in Tory marginals, plus the probable loss of dozens of Tory seats to the Lib Dems and SNP.
All switches are relative to the 2017 election.0 -
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Diehard Remainers now relying on the SNP to stop Brexit shows how desperate they have become, whether the SNP win 37 seats, 47 seats or 57 seats on tonight's Opinium there is clearly a majority for pro Brexit parties in England and Wales, even with No DealTheuniondivvie said:
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
0 -
-
Election campaigns usually result in Governments losing ground to the Opposition .anothernick said:
Going into a general election with a huge 3 point lead at a time of unprecedented political volatility is obviously going to carry Johnson to a historic victory.Benpointer said:
Quick - call an election then!HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
Or perhaps not.0 -
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.0 -
Maybe HMQ is heading for a Cromwell moment with the House Of Crooks?Scott_P said:
0 -
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
Fair enough.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?Theuniondivvie said:
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
£10 behind the bar at The Grill next time I'm in Aberdeen if I lose, £10 at Babbity Bowsters if you lose (assuming you ever venture into the the lion's den of Glasgow).
0 -
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.0 -
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.0 -
I ain't heading to Glasgow anytime soon - I'll pay out in Aberdonian pubs as I assumed you lived there.Theuniondivvie said:
Fair enough.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?Theuniondivvie said:
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.surbiton19 said:Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
£10 behind the bar at The Grill next time I'm in Aberdeen if I lose, £10 at Babbity Bowsters if you lose (assuming you ever venture into the the lion's den of Glasgow).
EDIT: to be clear this bet is currently void0 -
No.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Seeking to persuade people to vote differently at the next election is fine
Overturning or ignoring the result of the last is not0 -
This is an ok poll for both main parties, and confirms my view that Boris will polarise opinion. I have suggested earlier that in a GE Con plus Lab will poll at least 65%. This is the first poll for some time to show Labour leading the LibDems by more than 2 to 1 - that will cheer them quite a bit by making it much less likely that anti-Tories will see the LDs as a viable option.felix said:
Interesting - the great LD surge stalls.Scott_P said:0 -
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
Not on the basis of this poll!CaptainBuzzkill said:Scott_P said:
If the next GE is all Brexit (and it would seem clear that it will be) then Labour are in a dreadful position.
Their hardcore unthinking tribalists will stick with them but the vast majority will be polarized around the two distinct options.
With their current positioning Labour are going to get steamrollered.0 -
Swinson sinking in. What a dreadful unforced error by the Lib Dems. Someone get her a voice coach. And a decent speechwriter.Scott_P said:0 -
But when the leave campaign promised us we held all the cards, there would be a large financial benefit from leaving and a favourable deal with the EU would be the easiest deal in history they told us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
0 -
If we are being specific , the swing is 0.25% given that the Tories led by 2.5% in 2017.HYUFD said:
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.Scott_P said:
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter0 -
LDs were up to 21% with YouGov last week though, just 1% behind Labour and in the Euros Opinium had Labour ahead of the LDs and YouGov had the LDs ahead of Labour and it was YouGov who were rightStuartDickson said:
Swinson sinking in. What a dreadful unforced error by the Lib Dems. Someone get her a voice coach. And a decent speechwriter.Scott_P said:0 -
-
You really think anyone has actually registered Swinson is Lib-Dem leader?StuartDickson said:
Swinson sinking in. What a dreadful unforced error by the Lib Dems. Someone get her a voice coach. And a decent speechwriter.Scott_P said: 0 -
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?0 -
Given we're only five months away from "the next decade" that's not really as dramatic as it sounds?Scott_P said:0 -
If the ERG had voted for the WA we would be out by now. The fact we are not is down to them.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.0 -
-
I think even with them it would not have passed.anothernick said:
If the ERG had voted for the WA we would be out by now. The fact we are not is down to them.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.0 -
Polling 13%? Good luck with that!Scott_P said: 0 -
Well that's my point really. We cannot know which polls are accurate so predicting seats on the basis of any one poll is silly.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
The YouGov model was correct thoughjustin124 said:
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
The Withdrawal Agreement had temporary Customs Union and Single Market elements and that could have been made permanent in the transition period as the Political Declaration was not legally bindingBenpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?0 -
Didn't the ERG vote against a parliamentary vote on the deal? Had they won, we'd be out now (under May's "Terrible" deal).0
-
"a diehard Remainer echo chamber" = occasionally forced to listen to someone who isn't creaming themselves at the prospect of a blue passport.Benpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?0 -
Exactly.justin124 said:
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
We need a GE, then we'd know!0 -
-
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.Benpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
ERG repeatedly voted to leave on schedule.0 -
Yawn.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.Benpointer said:
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
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Yes - but that is not what we have been presented with recently.HYUFD said:
The YouGov model was correct thoughjustin124 said:
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
The question is what the author of the article meant. You may be jumping to a false conclusion.GIN1138 said:0 -
And yet Labour have still managed to be 3% behind the Tories tonightAndrew said:
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.Benpointer said:
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.0 -
So you reckon a vote in Parliament can decide whether the PM requests an extension?Philip_Thompson said:
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.Benpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
Things are looking up!0 -
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Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?0 -
I know the truth bores youOnlyLivingBoy said:
Yawn.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...0 -
Crash out No Deal Brexit will be Labour's fault?Andrew said:
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.Benpointer said:
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
Well, it's a view I guess.0 -
But against the only way that "leaving on schedule" could have happened, namely May's WA.Philip_Thompson said:
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.Benpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
ERG repeatedly voted to leave on schedule.0
This discussion has been closed.