politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a

First.

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

Curse of the old thread.

Great rant from Tommy Lee. At least no one could accuse him of being part of the liberal luvvie elite.

https://twitter.com/katgordon/status/1159424371389108224?s=20

The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1159744521502101504?s=21

The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

April -0.5%
May +0.2%
June n/c

If the Tories extend again they will be slaughtered by the Brexit Party and Corbyn will become PM so clearly Boris had to commit to Leave Deal or No Deal in October to win the next general election

AlastairMeeks said:

The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1159747505787158529

FPT
HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
George Monbiot the Guardian September 2014 'Scots voting No to independence would be an astonishing act of self harm', no surprise Jenkins has joined him

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

Monbiot was right and many in Scotland predicted that if they agreed to be doormats and vote NO that Westminster would not be long in making them pay, and so it proved. They have been putting the boot in ever since.

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1159744521502101504?s=21

TBH, this isn't much of surprise. Growth happens because people stockpile in case of calamity - so when calamity is postponed, they use the stockpile and the economy contracts.

It's what happens next that might prove more serious. Are people prepared for October 31st? If not what happens if the fruticakes currently ruining, er, running the country do take us out with no deal?

So a boost at the next period of stockpiling?

The Saj must commit to ending stockpiling boom and bust (though I guess No Deal will sort that out).

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1159736756322938880?s=20

Of course the idiot Mcdonnell ignores the fact that with Corbyn its been Corbyn before party and Corbyn before Country.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1159744521502101504?s=21

We could well already be in recession before Brexit happens, which will mean the arguments over the economic impact of Brexit will continue to the end of time.

So apparently the opposition plan is to argue bad-temperedly about who's going to cut the cake, until everybody starves to death.

https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1159736756322938880?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7859/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-brexit-betting-moves-closer-and-closer-to-no-deal-now-a/p1

Sort of of on topic, The World Service is always a boon for insomniacs and their Hard Talk is usually an interesting and revealing listen. They had IDS on this am; outside religious zealots and political extremists, I don't think I've ever heard such a rigid, fanatical mindset being expressed. Worth a listen if just to give an idea of the thinking in charge at the moment.

https://tinyurl.com/y4nwa6dy

GIN1138 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1159744521502101504?s=21

The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

April -0.5%
May +0.2%
June n/c

People spent like crazy during the heatwave last month from what I saw... Bet July's hot weather helps bring Q3 in at +0.1% and we miss the technical recession.

That’s not necessarily true though, they might spend more on beer and bbqs but the shops will have been empty and big ticket items deferred.

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1159747505787158529

Presumably that just reflects stocking and de-stocking ?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.

https://twitter.com/dlknowles/status/1159751472118190080

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.

Philip_Thompson said:

I don't think Johnson is bluffing, the stakes are too high. The question is if Parliament can stop him and the EU will agree.

We could very quickly see crossover in this market.

Though of course if the EU believes that No Deal will happen and blink offering a better deal then that could make No Deal less likely again.

More likely they believe it and don't blink ?

WhisperingOracle said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.

*economic and social liberalism been rejected as a connected package*, I should say there.

Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.

so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

Why do you say that?

Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

The EU will not have limitless patience.

I wish I could be as confident as you on your first point. That majority is split and is facing a PM determined to push something through in a manner which is unconstitutional, even if that majority asserts itself.

Philip_Thompson said:

The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

They are nothing

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.

Philip_Thompson said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.

Explains a lot that May's team are behind this garbage. I said this is what May tried.

The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

Do you have any tougher Qs?

Mr. Nabavi, more fun yet is contrasting the sage Greta Thingydoodah, so wise for her years, with the ISIS teenage brides who were 'clearly' too young to be held responsible for their actions.

Alanbrooke said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.

so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?

I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.

What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1159697653195837440

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

You yourself have seen the polling about how much the average, won't be affected by much (unless their pension is hit !) brexiteer wants brexit.
It strikes .e there will probably be a short term poll boost for the Tories even if with livestock burning in the fields.

Meanwhile the forces opposed to Brexit in the commons seem to be descending into their own moderates Vs Corbynites war. Twas ever thus

rottenborough said:

El_Capitano said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.

LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.

What about Cleggasm? They're not polling anything close to that.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1159734369365479424

williamglenn said:

What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1159697653195837440

Its actually a sensible proposal.

I made the point when the date was chosen that the original date (29/3) was sensibly a Friday, so we would exit on a Friday night then have the weekend and then start normal life outside the EU.

Whereas the EU's chosen date is a Thursday night, which means we exit - have Friday for some reason, then the weekend. Making the Friday a bank holiday - can be a public celebration of our independence day - means we've got a long weekend to start things off with.

rottenborough said:

El_Capitano said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1159747393149132800

This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.

LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.

They will go nowhere, happening when they have zero talent means they will stay as nonentities

Mr. Thompson, polls now seem to be a four way tie. That's certainly comparable to how Clegg polled, particularly with four rather than three parties at the sharp end.

A Conservative minister proposes closing the banks because of the terrible effects of its own flagship policy.

Yes, that's right kids, a conservative government.

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

Stark_Dawning said:

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Stark_Dawning said:

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

On PB some time today, I am sure. None of their other attack lines seem to have any traction.

MarqueeMark said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.

As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?

Stark_Dawning said:

Gove's remarks on the banks are madness! Everyone will think the government has a secret plan to stop people drawing out their own money. A major run on the banks is now a huge possibility.

Spend your £ while they still have some value......

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

Brexit hasn't happened yet.

lol

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1159697653195837440

They'll be proposing to close the banks for several months next.

When do I pick up my rationing card?

Tucked inside your blue passport.

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?

Philip_Thompson said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MarqueeMark said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.

As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?

May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.

Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?

he's laughing in your face.

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

Why do you say that?

Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

The EU will not have limitless patience.

I think that's the key. Despite FPTP the electorate find a way to get rid of governments they don't like and with poll ratings of 30% or less Johnson's govenment is unlikely to win a general election whoever the official opposition. They even found a way of neutering Mrs May after her huberistic Brexit campaign and she was infinitely more popular than Johnson and Rasputin

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MarqueeMark said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.

As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?

Well, let's see - MPs wouldn't pass May's Shit Deal, but wouldn't revoke and wouldn't go No Deal Brexit. So where do YOU think the blame lies for May having to agree an extension to allow Westminster MPs to form another circle jerk.....

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T: Compare and contrast the Guardian's terminology, depending on which line they are pushing:

"children as young as 16"

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/aug/08/schoolchildren-in-china-work-overnight-to-produce-amazon-alexa-devices

"citizens aged 16 and 17"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-voting-age-time-to-lower-it-to-16

I think in this case you're being a bit silly.

Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.

Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Alanbrooke said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Alanbrooke said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.

so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?

I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.

Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.

Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.

No Deal will absolutely hammer services.