politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another set of opening PM Johnson leader ratings has him in de

Sean_F said:

The_Taxman said:

Sean_F said:

The_Taxman said:

Gardenwalker said:

I am surprised, actually, at how poor Johnson’s polling is and how weak his “bounce”. And look at how his NHS funding announcement collapses.

It also feels like the media, having built him up, and keen to take him down. Also, having Cummings suggest he a potential coup d’etat seems to have been a bridge too far for some, and incensed others.

Still, it’s silly season. Most of the public are on a beach somewhere. September is when shit gets real.

I am not surprised by the poor polling Boris is experiencing. I am aware of whole families who used to vote Tory who will not vote for that idiot! Brexiteer Tories seem to think voters who usually support Labour and were Leavers will support him but I think this fundamentally misjudges why these people voted for Leave and will never vote Tory. It just goes to show how out of touch the nutters in office are that they even think Labour voters in historically Labour seats will support a party led by a man who thinks the rich should have more money!

I don't think Johnson's polling is at all poor. He's pushed up the Conservatives' share by about 10% or so, and I expect it will rise a bit further.

I would expect his rating to be hitting 80% + among Conservatives and Leavers shortly.

I think he's lecherous and unprincipled, but on this forum, people completely overstate the hatred that the public have for him, because they hate him.

Not really. He is utterly reviled by former Tory voters and I don't see any Labour Leaver's voting for Johnson or theTories in the 'forthcoming' election. This is probably as good as it gets for Boris and the Tories...

I don't think he is utterly reviled.

This forum is full of people who won't forgive him for betraying David Cameron in 2016. But, that's quite a niche section of the electorate.

SouthamObserver said:

Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.

On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...

I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc

Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?

Generally I would expect that hotels >> rent on a per diem basis, as is eating when you're eating out when on holiday rather than cooking from cheaper ingredients. You may also be doing further travelling within the country you're visiting (car hire >> car ownership) and so on, and so forth.

AlastairMeeks said:

steve_garner said:

Alistair Meeks said "You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also."

Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.

SouthamObserver said:

Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.

AlastairMeeks said:

Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.

Philip_Thompson said:

kjh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

You're wrong because you're assuming ceteris paribus, the first mistake of real world economics. Ceteris paribus isn't real. You say they are just made up figures but they're not made up figures, I quoted a real figure. Your wage growth staying the same while inflation changes figure was made up.

Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.

Current UK inflation: 1.9%
Current UK wage growth: 3.4%
Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.

Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1%
Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5%
Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.

The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.

Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.

I'm sorry but they were made up figures. You gave two hypothetical examples for me to compare. Unless you have access to a parallel universe they could not be applying at the same time to the same economy. You can not compare two different economies or two different time periods to prove a point.

You may be an economist, but I am a mathematician and that is a definite no no.

To make examples we work with hypotheticals. You may be a mathematician but the idea of varying inflation while holding wages the same is garbage - every economist knows that when inflation changes wages change too ultimately, which can be a nasty circle and there are many warnings about that in history. Think about it, people look at inflation when negotiating wage changes.

Minimum Wage earners not earning bonuses have seen their wage grow far faster than anyone else on average and far faster than inflation. Real wages for those on the National Minimum Wage have gone up 3% this year. That's real wages not nominal and that is real figures not made up.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1159208125397897217

Sean_F said:

Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.

Sean_F said:

kjh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kjh said:

Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it

And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more

"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"

That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.

Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.

I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.

Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.

And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.

In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.

The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.

I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.

But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.

When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?

Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...

ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.

I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.

So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.

F*cking hell.

So are you upset that those on minimum wage are gaining?

Wage growth is an average for the whole country and yes the poor are gaining more, so by definition on average those not on minimum wage must be averaging something below 3.4% [or 3.6% excluding bonuses] but they're still gaining. If they weren't, the average couldn't be that high.

And the collorary to minimum wage going up too fast is unemployment rising. That isn't happening. The fact minimum wage has gone up by 3% in real terms [4.9% nominally] while unemployment continues to fall is remarkable.

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.

Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.

The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

kjh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kjh said:

Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it

And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more

"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"

That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.

Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.

I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.

Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.

And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.

In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.

The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.

I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.

But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.

When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.

Tell the people of Zimbabwe that it means nothing to have a currency other people don't value. Sure, we're a long way from there, but we're travelling in the wrong direction.

Yes, it would make things worse to try and fix the currency at an artificially high level by decree, but over the long-term, and excepting the resource curse effect, you can view the value of a currency as a measure of the strength of an economy.

Sean_F said:

You really are the just pharisee.

You spit venom at your opponents and think you are the most moral of men.

steve_garner said:

The quotes system seems to be reversing the comments made by me and Meeks!

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.

Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.

The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Have I missed something?

Warren is now BF fav for Dems.

3.9

Her new farm policy seems to have gone down well. I think she will be the candidate.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1159079290786451456?s=19

Well - and there is a chance this post won't age well - but if she is the candidate then we are looking at four more years of the Racist In Chief.

I am green but barely.

Floater said:

Gabs2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.

Thank goodness we have people like you upholding our social fabric and civic decency.

I see what you did there LOL

steve_garner said:

AlastairMeeks said:

steve_garner said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rpjs said:

steve_garner said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

What evidence?

The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?

Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?

On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?

Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.

This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.

Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?

Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.

The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.

Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.

So Brexit === funding terrorism!

And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.

Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.

Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?

Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.

steve_garner said:

Gallowgate said:

steve_garner said:

Smart play tonight by Philip Thompson introducing olive oil prices into the brexit/currency debates. He knows how to hit Remainers where it hurts.

You are the one patronising Northerners by suggesting we don’t buy olive oil. It’s pathetic. You may be surprised to know that working class northerners also drive BMWs, wear designer clothes, and occasionally buy meal deals from Waitrose.

Serious sense of humour failure here. You're not still sore about buying Billy Whitehurst from us are you.

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.

Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.

The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.

It’s such an eye opener for me. It seems obvious when you think about it now: in 1933 Nazi Germany was not what it was in 1939. Many people thought Hitler’s rise to power was a blip, something that had to be worked through, before normality could return.

nichomar said:

So clearly the future WTO tariffs regime is either of no importance or that you are all like me completely unsure what it means. I have tried since this afternoon to raise the issue but it seems to have got lost in bull cheese.

Foxy said:

Gabs2 said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Have I missed something?

Warren is now BF fav for Dems.

3.9

Her new farm policy seems to have gone down well. I think she will be the candidate.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1159079290786451456?s=19

Who would be her VP? Buttigieg? Booker?

I have no idea, but it is an astute move politically to try to buy off American farmers hit by the Trump Trade War. It brings loads of the Midwest back into contention.

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Have I missed something?

Warren is now BF fav for Dems.

3.9

Her new farm policy seems to have gone down well. I think she will be the candidate.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1159079290786451456?s=19

Biden should still be the favourite, but Warren has a genuine and good chance. Laying the snot out of Harris has me in decent shape right now on this market.

Warren is organised; Biden isn’t, and never has been.
Could still go either way, and neither are inevitable yet.

Warren now at 3.85

Streeter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Boris will resign before the end of the year.

Be Leave, just Be Leave.

MarqueeMark said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1159206781777862658

So Corbyn is just McDonnell's lackey? Who knew....

sarissa said:

Foxy said:

kjh said:

ydoethur said:

kjh said:

steve_garner said:

rpjs said:

steve_garner said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

What evidence?

The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?

Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?

On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?

Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.

This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.

Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?

Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.

The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.

Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.

So Brexit === funding terrorism!

The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.

Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we arar. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?

The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...

...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.

That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.

So is that sorted then? The next PB meet up is in a Welsh nudist colony in the rain, with a ban on olive oil?

As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...

And Radiohead to dance to....

Gardenwalker said:

Streeter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Boris will resign before the end of the year.

Be Leave, just Be Leave.

What is Sunil’s current view?
It’s not long since he was telling Remainers to suck it up, but he seems anti-Boris.