politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes poll with LAB in lead might put the mockers on an e

Wrong poll you have posted I think

HYUFD said:

Wrong poll you have posted I think

Is that you, Yoda?

Even with Comres though Tories up 1% but 3% swing from LD to Labour.

Remember though before the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour

ComRes have gone from saying Boris Johnson would lead the Tories to 150 seat plus majority to being 1% behind in the space of a few weeks.

ComRes does not stand for Comedy Results, honest.

Why has OGH included the Ipsos-Mori?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Why has OGH included the Ipsos-Mori?

Belay that! It's ComRes now!

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

It is fairly clear he is obsessed with erections

There's a garden centre near me that sells sheds. They have a massive sign facing the main road saying "free erections", which always makes laugh.

Evening all

It seems Boris is good news for Labour as well as those determined to see the back of him run back to Labour from the LDs.

CON+BP=44%
LAB+LD+Green = 51%

The Con-BP split here is in stark contrast to Ipsos-Mori so a lot of poll volatility.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

It is fairly clear he is obsessed with erections

There's a garden centre near me that sells sheds. They have a massive sign facing the main road saying "free erections", which always makes laugh.

I am a fan of the single entendre

Was trying, in vain, to point out that Boris' elevation had had one other noticeable effect. That of putting Labour back in a clear second in the last 6 polls. Something they hadn't consistently been for a while. Nick Palmer's analysis seems sound. Boris repels a lot of folk. (Not me. I find him far less off putting than the curtain twitching May, but I am one of life's Cavaliers).
They will back the best placed challenger. Yesterday that was LDs in B+R, most places Labour.

Wheres HYUFD?

I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

tlg86 said:

I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

He was elected to shore up a crumbling edifice.

Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?

bigjohnowls said:

Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?

Jezza won't let her.

DecrepitJohnL said:

It seems like only ten minutes ago we were all agreed Jeremy Corbyn is leading Labour to its doom. A week is a long time in politics and so is a thread.

The 2017 election showed that the more people thought he wouldn’t win, the more they were prepared to vote for him.

alex. said:

I have a question. Is it possible for a Leave voter to be a diehard remainer?

I think by HY criteria then yes, if you oppose No Deal and May's Deal.

alex. said:

I have a question. Is it possible for a Leave voter to be a diehard remainer?

No but its entirely possible that the 4 leave voters in chez BJO prefer Remain to No Deal

bigjohnowls said:

Wheres HYUFD?

I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour

Some notes on this poll

i) The fieldwork is actually before the latest Yougov and only goes over the first half of the IPSOS Mori time period. It being released after those dates makes it appear as if though it's a newer poll, it isn't and the true underlying opinion of Labour won't change from 22% to 30% then back to 24% in a couple of days.

ii) It is a high side outlier for Labour only, Labour hasn't polled 30% since the european parliament elections.

iii) If you take all the most recent polls by each of the polling companies since the inception of the Johnson Ministry, the Tories average 30.75% with a standard deviation of 0.02, Labour is on 26.75% with an S Dev of 0.032.

My initial thought is this is could be a high side outlier for Labour, but it might not be.

If you think it is an outlier then the probable lead for the Tories is 7%, if you include this poll then the Tory polling lead is 4%.

stodge said:

Evening all

It seems Boris is good news for Labour as well as those determined to see the back of him run back to Labour from the LDs.

CON+BP=44%
LAB+LD+Green = 51%

The Con-BP split here is in stark contrast to Ipsos-Mori so a lot of poll volatility.

Yes but the Con+BP figure has been static at 45% or very close to it for a long while now.

Nothing has changed.

Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

dixiedean said:

Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave

Boris' honeymoon will last a month more as his novelty coincides with the Silly Season and the EU institutions long August break. Nothing is happening but he's new media product so he'll be able to get soft coverage for little effort. Once September arrives he's very very vulnerable. He's tied everything to doing something epochal that a majority of Parliament opposes, polarises the country and may well cause civil unrest. All the Commons needs to do is force him into another A50 extension and he's in the quicksand. If he calls an election his honeymoon ends as broadcasting balance rules kick in.

He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave

I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Wheres HYUFD?

I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour

Ah thats OK then.

Whens the next Survation?

Yougov and Mori were the gold standard in the European Parliament elections not Survation

The next European Elections are a while away.

Survation are GE Gold Standard

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938

Tory Party up in arms about having a crook as candidate...Who'd have thought it? Corbyn and Labour at least had the wit to campaign for the recall of Onasanya.

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave

I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.

Any Labour seat over 60% Leave must certainly be a Brexit Party target, especially if the Tories have no hope there and Tory voters might tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave

I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.

Any Labour seat over 60% Leave must certainly be a Brexit Party target, especially if the Tories have no hope there and might tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour

We shall see. Thanks for the debate this evening - all good fun.

Night all.

YellowSubmarine said:

He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.

Also the Madman Theory is more effective if you have nuclear weapons that can reach your enemy's cities, rather than trying to persuade everyone you're mad enough to blow up your own.

edmundintokyo said:

YellowSubmarine said:

He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.

Also the Madman Theory is more effective if you have nuclear weapons that can reach your enemy's cities, rather than trying to persuade everyone you're mad enough to blow up your own.

What's Klobuchar's plan now ?

SandyRentool said:

I note that the press are referring to the Home Secretary as 'Priti'. The next 'Boris'?

The only way to get the brexit they want is to go through progressively dimmer Prime Ministers, until they get someone too thick to understand what happens if they do it.

You make it sound like Boris is going to have a choice in this ( although if he did he would choose Corbyn all day long and twice on VoNC days).

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938

Social contact reduces risk of dementia? Sounds like a report from the University of the Bleeding Obvious.

Question is, how do we tackle isolation?

Prison

Poor Boris. More like a bouncing bomb, really.

I see Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire) result:was a swing from LD to Con

Worrying times for Swinson

Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

IanB2 said:

Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a million times cubed

https://twitter.com/CJTerry/status/1157394886125150210

The Tory vote is around 29-32% and the BXP Ltd. vote is deflating.

It’s the Lab/LibDem vote that the pollsters can’t get a fix on.

Which is actually a good thing - it means the forces ranged against Bozo are willing to be flexible over how he is defeated; they just need a degree of direction and organisation.

This was tweet of the day imho:

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1157265590530334720

SouthamObserver said:

‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬

The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.

The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬

The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.

The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war

That’s OK, then. At least your friend Bozo has everything under control.

I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.

The only possible cure is an antidote. They must find someone who has shown signs of being naturally immune from the increasing madness, who has had the virus and defeated it, recovering from a severe dose and returning to something approaching sanity.

Yes, they must feast on the blood of Dr Liam Fox.

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.

The only possible cure is an antidote. They must find someone who has shown signs of being naturally immune from the increasing madness, who has had the virus and defeated it, recovering from a severe dose and returning to something approaching sanity.

Yes, they must feast on the blood of Dr Liam Fox.

Whatever meds he has been taking they appear to have turned him into One Of the Adults in the Room.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Try Flavible

What difference does that make? The top 50 Tory target seats and the top LD target seats will still be exactly the same with the same swing required

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Try Flavible

Flavible seems to have become the favoured seat calculator for remainers here. Whether its any more accurate than other traditional ones remains to be seen.

Ultimately the opinion polls now are about as useful as soaking wet paper. There isn't a snowballs chance in hell the campaign won't matter, the votes at the end of the campaign won't match polls outside of them.

IanB2 said:

Britain’s towns and cities will never flourish if ‘local’ is a dirty word

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/02/britain-local-councils-public-services

An insightful piece. The gutting of the FE sector in particular has been pernicious. Most "left behind" towns used to have a relatively cheap, convenient place for ambitious people without much formal qualifications to "improve" themselves, and form a community of like-minded people. There was also stable employment for an educated middle class who taught there. Now there isn't.

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Try Flavible

Flavible seems to have become the favoured seat calculator for remainers here. Whether its any more accurate than other traditional ones remains to be seen.

Ultimately the opinion polls now are about as useful as soaking wet paper. There isn't a snowballs chance in hell the campaign won't matter, the votes at the end of the campaign won't match polls outside of them.

You're right. The last three GEs have all come up with a result different to the polls and conventional wisdom before the campaign began. No reason this one should differ.