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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together
Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories.
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The shortest stint as PM was the second stint of the Duke of Wellington. If Boris makes it to 15 August, he will tie the 22 days for which Wellington was PM on that occasion.
The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.
He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Numpty.
Lawbreakers can't be Lawmakers...
Are they even a thing anymore ?
Will the Brexit Party field a candidate? Not at all obvious.
If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?
There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.
This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.
The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
Remainer spaceships, striking
from a hidden base, have won
their first victory against
the evil Tory Empire.
During the battle, Remainer
spies managed to steal secret
plans to the Empire's
ultimate weapon, the BORIS
BOUNCER, an armored space
station with enough power to
knock up an entire parliamentary
constituency.
Pursued by the Empire's
sinister agents, Princess
Jo races home aboard her
battle bus, custodian of the
stolen plans that can save
her people and restore
freedom to the Continent....
They will do neither of those things, so the Lib Dems will clean up instead.
In one sense you are right there will be no limit to the amount of our money that Johnson will spaff on boosting his personal chances of re-election. Hypocrisy from Tories on public spending is truly breathtaking
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979
Except wasn't he reselected because of his personal following in the constituency? If HQ had parachuted in someone else they would have lost some votes. Swings and roundabouts
Titter.
All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
- Maggie Thatcher, 1983.
LDs will certainly clean up, but to what extent? Brecon was a good result but hardly a whitewash.
But a BXP no deal tainted Tory Party wont carry all the Tory vote
All in all, it probably doesn't tell us very much at all.
If Jezza just quit, maybe. If he was challenged and beaten, maybe not.
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1157225084660146177
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1157225086753169409
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1157225089357746177
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1157225091782119424
what tory reputation ? Fiscal responsibility died with Cameron and Osborne
Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!
If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
Remain cannot win as its split between too many factions under FPTP
Bozo is already losing moderate Tories as any PB reader knows
An an alliance between the two mini-Trumps would galvanize remain voters into tactical voting if not the parties into a coupon election
But somehow wonderful.
If Farage continues the Brexit party after we leave he is a fool - he will be managing decline. He avoided that with the Kippers - will he dodge the bullet again - I suspect so.
But it wont. They have to be stopped by brave MPs in September.
It's not exactly fair but them's the rules. That's FPTP.
That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE, and (ii) are more likely than Leavers to vote tactically, means that Boris Johnson has very little chance of winning a majority in a snap election. He will therefore avoid one.
An extension into 2020 beckons.
Truly sad. We used to be seen as the sane, pragmatic one.
What a shocking low state our country has been reduced to by these liars and snake oil salesmen.
Plus, on top of this, you have seats like Guildford and others around London, not on the list, which have v strong remain votes and have also flirted with the LDs in the past so, in a Cons supporting "no deal" scenario, are clearly also potentially in play.
Sounds therefore instinctively very hard for Boris to win a majority and change the game here - the only thing that makes it possible is the uselessness of Corbyn, which is clearly not an insignificant factor....case of who is least bad, rather than who is best?!
Suggest remainers are falling into a very big elephant trap.
Team Boris isn't working to avoid an election - they are working to frame the election...
Of course Cummings has already told everyone this in his blogs...
She campaigned against a No Deal Brexit.
It's too simplistic even now to state that Cons + BXP = Leave
It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.
I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.
So he must be stopped. VoNC on 4th September.
Oh, but I forgot... Boris is Boris.
and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
Swinson also rejected the idea that Dodds had deliberately not talked much about Brexit during the campaign.
She said: “I absolutely heard her talking about stopping a no-deal Brexit. Farmers in this area talked to her about their concerns when we’re looking at 40% tariffs on lamb exports.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/02/brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-result-lib-dems-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-live
What boosted the Liberal Democrats appears to have been significant switching from Labour and the Tories. That might be due to remain, or Johnson and Corbyn, or Davies' conviction, or even just a desire to shake things up.
@SouthamObserver - this hasn't been a safe seat for anybody since Brynmawr was removed in the 1970s. It is always marginal. Whatever the headline result the voters will change things around, sometimes very unexpectedly as in 1992 and 2015. So it is not 'a good result for the Liberal Democrats in a safe Tory seat.' That said, it was a good result.
It will be hard for the people responsible to win it however
Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/02/brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-result-lib-dems-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-live
Yeah, that’ll work.....
If it leads to a minority Labour Government (with LibDems + Others), then it will be interesting to see what they actually do.
Remember Pierre Trudeau's government fell in 1979, as he lost the election and there was a minority Conservative + Allies Government. It lasted a year, and Trudeau was back in power for another lengthy term in 1980.
Boris does not have to "win" an election. He merely has to make sure that whoever "wins" is hamstrung.
If I'd been in that seat I'd have voted Lib-Dem as the best chance of getting a convicted criminal out of Westminster.
The key lesson, as I have said, is that Labour is haemorrhaging voters who would 15 years ago not even have considered voting for anyone else. That could be a serious matter for them. The last thing Corbyn needs is for Wales to go the way of Scotland, but helped enormously by the uselessness of Drakeford that is where matters seem to be headed.
The bright spot is that there is no one Party placed to exploit that, but if Plaid and the Liberal Democrats carve up the Valleys and the Tories the English speaking areas of Clwyd, Powys, Pembroke and Gower, that will be the coldest of cold comfort.
The Tories only picked him because he was a "winner"...