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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn
Latest @IpsosMORI with changes on GE2017CON 34% (-9.5)LAB 24% (-17)LDs 20% (+12.4)BREX 9% (+9)
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Con +8
Lab n/c
LD -2
BXP -3
edit: slightly overestimated the BXP decline...
But regardless, the reason this is important is that turnout will play a big part in any election result. If Labour somehow finds a way to get its turnout up again and gets it voters energised (I assume they think Momentum will help with that - to be fair they did hold Peterborough) they can close a gap.
I'm not sure personal leader ratings will be especially important when this election will basically be about Brexit vs no Brexit. Labour will presumably be trying to move the debate onto other issues. Corbyn has never polled well apart from inside elections, where he turned his rating positive before during a campaign - I assume he hopes he can repeat that.
I am also not entirely convinced the voters who have moved to the Lib Dems/Green won't come back. Historically the Green vote always gets squeezed and outside Brexit, I'm sure most of these people prefer Corbyn's other policies.
The priority for Labour must be second ref in all circumstances (which they now do support) in their manifesto and ensuring Remain is an option. I am still not convinced Labour's position in that referendum matters if Remain is an option anyway but it surely can't hurt to back Remain in all cases. The key is Labour/Tory marginals, where the tactical question will have to be "No Deal vs referendum to Remain?"
That metaphor machine is at it again.
Except more accomplished at bullshitting.
Good job they didn't decide to hold another JezFest....It would be TheJezziah alone in a field.
Duh?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1156908313872949250?s=21
Even my most Corbynite friends have now abandoned Corbyn, and gone into post-Corbyn mode. I don't know ANYONE who doesn't want him gone, sharpish, and I have a lot of leftwing pals.
Who and where are these die-hard Corbynistas?
Also apologies for Harvey Elliott, he's only 16, and it happened when he was at Fulham, Klopp will sort him out, he won't turn into as classy as the spanner/gunner Jack Wilshire.
The EU tends to go by the rulebook, too.
https://twitter.com/WisdenCricket/status/1156910208985305088
Secondly, even if you are a Labour backer who wants him gone, that doesn't necessarily mean you think he'd be a bad PM. Some such people may feel he's been rather unfairly maligned over antisemitism and other matters such that he's holed below the waterline and can't win... but if he did win, he's got basically the right ideas for making the country better and would be a good thing.
Thirdly, there are plenty of people who are tribal and don't pay much attention to politics. If you're a tribal Labour supporter man and boy, then the Labour leader would be a good PM - simple as that.
I seem to recall getting a lot of stick when I opined here that the youthful enthusiasm for Corbyn in the run-up to the 2017 election was a passing fad that would look very old-hat in a couple of years. It was the Cleggasm all over again.
If a deal between the UK and EU cannot be reached:
38% support leaving the European Union without a deal, whereas 50% oppose. 67% of Conservative voters support this outcome but 74% of Labour voters oppose.
50% support delaying the UK leaving until an agreement can be reached, 37% oppose. 62% of Conservatives oppose this outcome and 75% of Labour voters support it.
56% support a General Election to elect a new parliament, 29% oppose. 87% of Labour voters and 71% of Lib Dems support this outcome but a majority of Conservatives (55%) oppose.
Interesting to reflect that one of those is still playing cricket, albeit not for the First XI at the moment. Presumably Trescothick is turning out for Somerset 2nds as well?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1156890555982471168?s=21
...in from of a crowd of 20,000.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1155209244930695170?s=20
Oh dear, we're reducing to arguing over the right changes and whether 24% is low or mid 20s. Some people need to get out and enjoy life - watch the racing at Goodwood, far more interesting and entertaining than the nonsense at Birmingham.
The Mori poll continues the surge in support for the Conservatives since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. The 34% is the highest Conservative poll rating for some months while the 9% TBP rating is the lowest for a while. The "split" of that 43% bloc vote is crucial - if it splits 25-18 the Conservatives are in trouble, if it splits 34-9 they are going well.
The LDs continue to show a solid 20% or so in the polls and hopefully a good performance in Brecon & Radnor will aid Jo Swinson get some much needed publicity but the last week has all been about Boris and his largesse. If you promise the Sun, the Moon and the stars you'll get some takers.
Yet making so many hostages to fortune works only until it's delivery time. I'm sure Boris has calculated the near certainty of a No Deal exit on 31/10 and his task is to mitigate the economic impact. No one will thank him for delivering Brexit if their business fails or their job is lost. He believes strong and profound economic stimulus is the answer - maybe but the reckoning will be in the borrowing, the increased deficit and debt which will come back to haunt some future PM if not Boris himself.
Apparently they do not prompt for the Brexit Party - hence, its lower rating.
In such an election, there would be two or three fairly clear options:
1. Swinson's Lib Dems would presumably go with "revoke and remain" (i.e. this trumps 2016, and she's just not taking Britain out).
2. If Johnson gets some kind of deal, he'll make it "give me a majority and leave on my terms".
3. Farage (and/or Johnson if he has no negotiated option but Parliament blocks leaving with no deal) will say "leave now with no deal".
All those three options have a "one bound and we're free" appeal. They are real, quick to implement answers to the current impasse. You can like them or not, but all allow people to move on.
Against that, you seem to say Labour's position would be "we'll faff about for ages to get an ill-defined 'workers Brexit', then have a referendum campaign lasting another few months in which we'll half-heartedly campaign to leave, then either leave on that deal or presumably remain (although it's not clean as some of those voting to reject our deal don't want to remain but don't like our deal".
It's messy and near-impossible to explain to voters. It's a recipe to be crushed between much clearer alternative messages on the big issue of the day.
Not the best start for "great campaigner" PM Johnson
https://twitter.com/the_topspin/status/1156917721860386819
Overall, a very good rule is high turnout in the day is good for the blues, high turnout first thing before and straight after work is good for the yellows, and a queue at the polling station with fifteen minutes to go is great for the reds.
He's going to nurse the convicts to a big score here.
That implies either:
cowardice / putting country before party / broken promise by liar.
Delete as appropriate to fit your preconditioned bias and political view.
Apart from that, a fine neologism.
And hardly an unbiased “news” outlet.
Even if it is their own side doing it.