politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?
Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.
Comments
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First again. This is becoming a habit. Like the LDs.0
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Lib Dem?
Sorry, I meant first?0 -
I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.0
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I suspect Boris will do better than many on here expect but not enough due to the selection of the wrong candidate..dixiedean said:I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.
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Johnson can boast how much the lowered exchange rate will boost exports.0
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Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
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Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected0 -
Yes, Brecon and Radnor is full of pensioners and farmhousesGallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected0 -
In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!Gallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected0 -
Shame postal voting started when May was PM.0
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Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
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It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?0 -
A rare chance for me to agree with HY that this will probably see a narrow LD win.
Sitting at home as a PB keyboard warrior I’d have confidently predicted a convincing LibDem gain. Having spent three days driving around the north of the constituency I am not so sure.
The LibDems aren’t fighting a directly anti-Brexit campaign because there are an awful lot of Brexity people there (many living in holiday parks originally designed as short term summer rental that are now entirely owner occupied). The LDs are fighting the better organised campaign, but the geographical realities of the seat are that it is very difficult to reach very many of the voters. The LDs are being careful not to attack Davies directly, using phrases such as “an MP who put Brecon on the map for the wrong reasons” to keep the issue obliquely in voters’ minds.
I think the LDs are home principally because Brexit Party Ltd. are spending a lot of money direct mailing leave voters within the constituency. And so the result will probably be Eastleigh redux.0 -
That and a convicted fraudster as a candidate.Gallowgate said:
Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
To an extent it's a pity the fraudster won't win - he would fit right in with the new cabinet..0 -
If its close it could have made the difference.ydoethur said:
It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?0 -
Can we have another YouGov soon please?0
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No, because the people who voted first will be the ones who were least likely to change their minds. I am guessing incidentally they were probably also disproportionately Liberal Democrats not Conservatives, another way in which this seat doesn't follow norms.Philip_Thompson said:
If its close it could have made the difference.ydoethur said:
It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?0 -
The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.TookieTheBookie said:
In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!Gallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected1 -
Interesting info. Thanks!IanB2 said:
The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.TookieTheBookie said:
In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!Gallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected0 -
If he does win it's a pretty shocking indictment of the Liberal Democrats.eek said:
That and a convicted fraudster as a candidate.Gallowgate said:
Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
To an extent it's a pity the fraudster won't win - he would fit right in with the new cabinet..
Win or lose, both sides picked the wrong candidates. The Conservatives may have felt they were boxed into a corner given the local controversy over the recall petition. What is the Yellows' excuse?0 -
Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
In betting terms they have a 4% chance. In reality they have no chance, so I won't be risking a worn farthing on a Tory win. My prediction is for the LDs to be 10 percentage points ahead of them.dixiedean said:I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.
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The view on the ground is that the ascent of Bozo has won back Brexit Party Ltd. voters from the Tories, but done nothing to stem the flow of Tory remainers toward the LibDems. Insofar as the timing of the postal voters are concerned (and it is true that almost every postal voter I met over the weekend had already sent theirs back), it would hang on the balance between leaver and remainer PVs.Philip_Thompson said:Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
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Or that a lot of people are switching to non-BT phone suppliers?IanB2 said:
The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.TookieTheBookie said:
In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!Gallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
I know it's supposed to be easy to keep your number but from bitter experience it isn't.0 -
I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.0 -
As a self declared remain voter, your view of these developments is....?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
The Conservative candidate cannot be that popular otherwise 10,000 would not have signed the petition. Presuming they will not vote for him he clearly has a big problem to overcome.0
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Midlands, Wales, southern Englandviewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
He's had a few honeymoons tbf.Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
But the intersection of the Venn diagram of those two is nevertheless sparsely populated.HYUFD said:
Yes, Brecon and Radnor is full of pensioners and farmhousesGallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected0 -
Absolutely no chance that the Tories will win this by election..0
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That doesn't follow. You would have found 10,000 voters in Blackburn to recall Jack Straw in 2003, yet he was personally very popular.theakes said:The Conservative candidate cannot be that popular otherwise 10,000 would not have signed the petition. Presuming they will not vote for him he clearly has a big problem to overcome.
Just because 20% dislike him enough to sack him doesn't mean a significant chunk of the remaining 80% do as well.0 -
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25viewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'0
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I thought you were a good muslim boy?TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
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He's probably been way out of the metropolis to distant Bucks and Essex.viewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
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No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYONDIanB2 said:
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25viewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
BasicallyTheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
4% < Odds of Tories winning < 50%0 -
The Tory remainers mention the MP’s misdemeanours as an additional reason why they might switch their vote. The Tory leavers aren’t bothered, more concerned with whether voting Tory or BXP Ltd. is the most effective pro-Brexit vote. Both Tory and BXP Ltd. campaigns are relying heavily on direct mail, so it is hard to read how this is playing out.TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.0 -
I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy two days a year, one of which will be next week.Gallowgate said:
I thought you were a good muslim boy?TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
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How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)TheScreamingEagles said:
I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.Gallowgate said:
I thought you were a good muslim boy?TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
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Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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I think you're missing the joke there @ydoethurydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
Thank you.Byronic said:
Midlands, Wales, southern Englandviewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
I didn't get the 26s, someone snapped it up before I did. I think I got 23s. I got the princely sum of £5.Omnium said:
How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)TheScreamingEagles said:
I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.Gallowgate said:
I thought you were a good muslim boy?TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
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I don't answer the landline any more, so high are the odds that it is someone from Microsoft wanting my credit card details. And if I did answer a call from a pollster I think I would assume from their preamble and the fact that I didn't know them, that it was Microsoft again or a double glazing offer.ydoethur said:
Or that a lot of people are switching to non-BT phone suppliers?IanB2 said:
The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.TookieTheBookie said:
In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!Gallowgate said:
Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
I know it's supposed to be easy to keep your number but from bitter experience it isn't.0 -
The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
Oooh. Almost as far as Epping!Benpointer said:
He's probably been way out of the metropolis to distant Bucks and Essex.viewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.0 -
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.0 -
That's a flaccid response.ydoethur said:
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
Come on, I'm doing my best.viewcode said:
That's a flaccid response.ydoethur said:
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
The wonders of Thameslink from just down the road in St Pancras.Byronic said:
No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYONDIanB2 said:
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25viewcode said:
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?Byronic said:Anecdote ALARM
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
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If you thought that was lewd I'm really proud of this picture I used in a PB thread header, I think it went over the heads of most PBers.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
If you thought that was lewd I'm really proud of this picture I used in a PB thread header, I think it went over the heads of most PBers.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?0
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It will be ephemeral after sustained No Deal.Mexicanpete said:
Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
The Tories will poll single digits.0 -
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.0 -
I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
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You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.0 -
Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.ydoethur said:
The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.Benpointer said:With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?
Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.0 -
... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).Byronic said:
You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.0 -
There is also a female Loony candidate, who I saw having a very nice cream tea in the Aspidistra Tea Rooms yesterday in the company of someone who looked very like the Howling Laud.ydoethur said:
Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.Benpointer said:With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?
Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.0 -
Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.ydoethur said:
Come on, I'm doing my best.viewcode said:
That's a flaccid response.ydoethur said:
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
In that latter case, at least as fellow remainers we’ll both be cheering!Byronic said:
You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.0 -
It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.0
-
The contest for 3rd could be interesting.tpfkar said:I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.0 -
Not necessarily. It might be the thing that finally triggers Mr Present But Not Involved to table a motion of no confidence.Benpointer said:
Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.ydoethur said:
The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
"No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales."Benpointer said:
... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).Byronic said:
You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
Especially as first week in August. Half the country is away on holiday.0 -
Are they big users of Facebook in B & R?Luckyguy1983 said:It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.
0 -
Given the effort they are making, I doubt that BXP Ltd. will do as badly as that.tpfkar said:I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
Although you do raise one possible consequence of this by-election in that a bad BXP Ltd. performance, even with a LibDem win, might be the Tories’ opportunity to put them out of business. Raising the stakes considerably for the anti-Brexit parties, and for Labour still perched on its fence.0 -
You're foreskin me to keep this conversation going.viewcode said:
Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.ydoethur said:
Come on, I'm doing my best.viewcode said:
That's a flaccid response.ydoethur said:
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
...but Alun Cairns today proposed that the loss of the EU market to welsh sheep farmers in the event of no deal will be offset by exploiting the hitherto untapped Japanese market for welsh lamb.TheScreamingEagles said:
It will be ephemeral after sustained No Deal.Mexicanpete said:
Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
The Tories will poll single digits.0 -
Ten minutes - blimey those were the days!viewcode said:
Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.ydoethur said:
Come on, I'm doing my best.viewcode said:
That's a flaccid response.ydoethur said:
That pun was as it turns out a flop.Benpointer said:
Don't be too hard on yourself.ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
Mr 'I went near the table, but I did not actually place a confidence motion on it'.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily. It might be the thing that finally triggers Mr Present But Not Involved to table a motion of no confidence.Benpointer said:
Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.ydoethur said:
The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.0 -
Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?IanB2 said:
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.0 -
Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.Benpointer said:
The contest for 3rd could be interesting.tpfkar said:I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.0 -
I suspect so.Benpointer said:
Are they big users of Facebook in B & R?Luckyguy1983 said:It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.
0 -
I have taken a nibble on Tories based on TSE's tip.
If LibDems win I get to celebrate the first puncturing of the Boris bluster machine.
If not, then I get £30 for a free Friday night curry.
0 -
The whole point about sheep is that they tend not to worry.DecrepitJohnL said:
Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?IanB2 said:
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.0 -
If BXP Ltd don't lose their deposit, I can't see the Tories winning.IanB2 said:
Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.Benpointer said:
The contest for 3rd could be interesting.tpfkar said:I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
(Apols for the double-negative)0 -
23s look good to me too - just about. I guess I'm just uncomfortable that such tiny amounts 'count'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I didn't get the 26s, someone snapped it up before I did. I think I got 23s. I got the princely sum of £5.Omnium said:
How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)TheScreamingEagles said:
I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.Gallowgate said:
I thought you were a good muslim boy?TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
0 -
0
-
Close ... but no cigar ....ydoethur said:
I did, yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
You might say I blew that one...0 -
Having spent three days there, I can’t see them losing their deposit.Benpointer said:
If BXP Ltd don't lose their deposit, I can't see the Tories winning.IanB2 said:
Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.Benpointer said:
The contest for 3rd could be interesting.tpfkar said:I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
(Apols for the double-negative)0 -
DecrepitJohnL said:
Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?IanB2 said:
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.HYUFD said:Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
Only when it isn’t raining.0 -
IndeedGardenwalker said:Posted without comment.
https://twitter.com/rowena_kay/status/1156299853208653830?s=210 -
What struck me in the Interviews With The Provincials is how many of them think: No Deal won't be so bad. And if it is, well fuck it, we went through the Blitz, we can cope with a Welsh Lamb blockade.Benpointer said:
... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).Byronic said:
You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.IanB2 said:
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.ydoethur said:
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
I do not agree with these sentiments. I think Brexit could be significantly and pointlessly bad for the Union, and the British economy - certainly over the long term - but there is no doubt this national mood is building. We can cope. Bring it on. Etc.
0 -
What was Priti Patel doing there ?!?IanB2 said:
There is also a female Loony candidate, who I saw having a very nice cream tea in the Aspidistra Tea Rooms yesterday in the company of someone who looked very like the Howling Laud.ydoethur said:
Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.Benpointer said:With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?
Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.0 -
FWIW the Tory price has come in from 25 to 15 today on BFErottenborough said:I have taken a nibble on Tories based on TSE's tip.
If LibDems win I get to celebrate the first puncturing of the Boris bluster machine.
If not, then I get £30 for a free Friday night curry.0
