politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?
Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.
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Sorry, I meant first?
Only DavidL can be first here?
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?
Sitting at home as a PB keyboard warrior I’d have confidently predicted a convincing LibDem gain. Having spent three days driving around the north of the constituency I am not so sure.
The LibDems aren’t fighting a directly anti-Brexit campaign because there are an awful lot of Brexity people there (many living in holiday parks originally designed as short term summer rental that are now entirely owner occupied). The LDs are fighting the better organised campaign, but the geographical realities of the seat are that it is very difficult to reach very many of the voters. The LDs are being careful not to attack Davies directly, using phrases such as “an MP who put Brecon on the map for the wrong reasons” to keep the issue obliquely in voters’ minds.
I think the LDs are home principally because Brexit Party Ltd. are spending a lot of money direct mailing leave voters within the constituency. And so the result will probably be Eastleigh redux.
To an extent it's a pity the fraudster won't win - he would fit right in with the new cabinet..
Win or lose, both sides picked the wrong candidates. The Conservatives may have felt they were boxed into a corner given the local controversy over the recall petition. What is the Yellows' excuse?
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
I know it's supposed to be easy to keep your number but from bitter experience it isn't.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
Just because 20% dislike him enough to sack him doesn't mean a significant chunk of the remaining 80% do as well.
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
4% < Odds of Tories winning < 50%
You might say I blew that one...
The Tories will poll single digits.
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.
If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
Especially as first week in August. Half the country is away on holiday.
Although you do raise one possible consequence of this by-election in that a bad BXP Ltd. performance, even with a LibDem win, might be the Tories’ opportunity to put them out of business. Raising the stakes considerably for the anti-Brexit parties, and for Labour still perched on its fence.
If LibDems win I get to celebrate the first puncturing of the Boris bluster machine.
If not, then I get £30 for a free Friday night curry.
(Apols for the double-negative)
https://twitter.com/rowena_kay/status/1156299853208653830?s=21
Only when it isn’t raining.
I do not agree with these sentiments. I think Brexit could be significantly and pointlessly bad for the Union, and the British economy - certainly over the long term - but there is no doubt this national mood is building. We can cope. Bring it on. Etc.