politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. So Boris Johnson is PM. What
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Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
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Maybe. But both Corbyn and Boris have an interest in seeing Brexit completed - in the expecation that both the LibDems and the Brexit Party will decline in the polls as Brexit loses its salience. Lab & Con need a return to conventional politics and this may be the easiest and quickest way to achieve it.anothernick said:
Jezza will not make a pact with the Tories under any circumstances whatsoever.Stark_Dawning said:
Interesting. A Boris-Jezza pact looks to be on the cards. Boris's having no qualms about humiliating the ERG certainly fits in with that.rottenborough said:0 -
To be fair, JRM with a traffic cone on his head would add to the general positivity of the nation as sought by La Boz.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Shame. I was looking forward to them receiving a traditional warm Glaswegian welcome.Scott_P said:0 -
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.0 -
Not being snarky but people have been saying that on HERE for days now. So what's the significance of someone on Twitter saying what's been said here repeatedly?rottenborough said:0 -
No, my point is that it has been Conservative governments that cut the armed forces and the police. This is counterintuitive because the Tories are generally held to be strong on defence and law & order. The cuts later came home to roost.TOPPING said:
Your point is that by cutting policemen it is all of a sudden the victims' fault that they are mugged/shot/burgled. And by cutting the Royal Navy, it was Thatcher's fault that Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.DecrepitJohnL said:Theresa May axing 20,000 coppers ... (soon to be replaced by Boris if we can find enough new lockers).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kit-malthouse-says-plan-to-hire-police-is-at-risk-from-lack-of-lockers-6dsnplnjn
1) Mrs Thatcher cut the navy.
2) Argentina (as had been predicted and as the government had been warned) invaded.
3) War.
4) Mrs Thatcher made yet more cuts to the navy so the armada could not be re-assembled.
5) John Nott walked out when challenged on this by Robin Day.
For all your sophistry, you do not seem to be challenging the facts of the cuts. It is Conservative governments that have decimated the armed forces. Putin would vote Tory.
That would be quite funny if it wasn't so worrying.0 -
But.. still a step forward from appointing a *60 year old, white, male* tobacco lobbyist who got fired in disgracerkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.0 -
Lower ranks starting to be filled:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/07/johnsons-ministerial-appointments.html0 -
The longer he sits on his hands about Brexit, the more a de facto pact exists.anothernick said:
Jezza will not make a pact with the Tories under any circumstances whatsoever.Stark_Dawning said:
Interesting. A Boris-Jezza pact looks to be on the cards. Boris's having no qualms about humiliating the ERG certainly fits in with that.rottenborough said:0 -
Chris Heaton Harris is transport junior minister. iirc he is against HS2.0
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He wants No Deal.Harris_Tweed said:
The longer he sits on his hands about Brexit, the more a de facto pact exists.anothernick said:
Jezza will not make a pact with the Tories under any circumstances whatsoever.Stark_Dawning said:
Interesting. A Boris-Jezza pact looks to be on the cards. Boris's having no qualms about humiliating the ERG certainly fits in with that.rottenborough said:0 -
Pump up the innovative jam?Scott_P said:1 -
She's a constitutional expert at the Institute of Government.glw said:
Not being snarky but people have been saying that on HERE for days now. So what's the significance of someone on Twitter saying what's been said here repeatedly?rottenborough said:0 -
Define "Older" ...AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Being on the wrong side of 50my detailed assessment is that I believe he lacks a spine (reportedly run away from too many awkward situations), his pronouncements on race and colour convince me that he is anything but tolerant and if he has a plan we are yet to hear it rather than the vague objectives that he blusters about.
Executive summary: I cannot think of a role he is fit for, but PM is not it. If he worked me I would fire him.
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Well, it certainly looks there will be an emergency in the autumn so may as well have an emergency budget.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed. The army is now almost 1/3 smaller than it was in 2010.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, my point is that it has been Conservative governments that cut the armed forces and the police. This is counterintuitive because the Tories are generally held to be strong on defence and law & order. The cuts later came home to roost.TOPPING said:
Your point is that by cutting policemen it is all of a sudden the victims' fault that they are mugged/shot/burgled. And by cutting the Royal Navy, it was Thatcher's fault that Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.DecrepitJohnL said:Theresa May axing 20,000 coppers ... (soon to be replaced by Boris if we can find enough new lockers).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kit-malthouse-says-plan-to-hire-police-is-at-risk-from-lack-of-lockers-6dsnplnjn
1) Mrs Thatcher cut the navy.
2) Argentina (as had been predicted and as the government had been warned) invaded.
3) War.
4) Mrs Thatcher made yet more cuts to the navy so the armada could not be re-assembled.
5) John Nott walked out when challenged on this by Robin Day.
For all your sophistry, you do not seem to be challenging the facts of the cuts. It is Conservative governments that have decimated the armed forces. Putin would vote Tory.
That would be quite funny if it wasn't so worrying.0 -
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rcs1000 said:0
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Fair enough, but it's not news to anyone here how things may play out. The EU's position and the parliamentary artihmetic have made a general election fought for a no-deal Brexit mandate a likely outcome for many months now, and nothing Boris has said or done has changed that.rottenborough said:
She's a constitutional expert at the Institute of Government.glw said:
Not being snarky but people have been saying that on HERE for days now. So what's the significance of someone on Twitter saying what's been said here repeatedly?rottenborough said:0 -
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I obviously move in more decorous circles. His arrival has been noted on my facebook feed (which is studiously unpolitical most of the time). Almost all the comment has come from older women. None of it has been complimentary.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Sample:
"Oh God BORIS,! It's true what they say then, America sneezes and we get flu. Or the fool in this case, who'd vote for a man that can't find himself a decent barber. Oh that's right the USA."
This from a woman who has used the phrase "suck it up buttercup" about the referendum result.0 -
It's already past that point. Russian seizure of Crimea and eastern Ukraine contradict the guarantees of Ukrainian territorial integrity that we signed up to in the Memorandum when they handed their nukes over to Russia.rcs1000 said:
I guess that's the real problem with politics right now.StuartDickson said:
Try getting on a soapbox and selling that concept during an election, as the coffins arrive every hour on non-stop news channels.rcs1000 said:
I always thought the way it worked was that by risking hundred of casualties in Talinn, we avoid tens of thousands of casualties in Berlin.Dura_Ace said:
Probably not that well in the long term. Do you think the British public and government have the stomach to take hundreds of KIAs every day fighting for fucking Estonia? Because I don't. I was in Basra and the mission there just became don't do anything that might risk casualties and uncomfortable headlines.rottenborough said:
Eh? How does that work as a deterrence then?Dura_Ace said:
The Baltic membership of NATO is for deterrence purposes only. If that deterrent fails no NATO member is going to fight the Russian army through the streets of Tallinn no matter who the PM is.AlastairMeeks said:
If, say, Estonia is invaded by Russia at a time when Britain's Prime Minister is Jeremy Corbyn, do you think Britain would send troops
I'm going to use an analogy. In the 1980s, the Mexican government got into really serious financial trouble, and the then US Treasury Secretary put in place a system where the US guaranteed Mexican debt. (These were named in his honour, Brady Bonds.)
This led to a huge amount of criticism: why were US taxpayers being put on the hook for the profligacy of Mexican politicians? But it was, of course, the right call. It would have been far more expensive for the US if the Mexican government had gone to the wall. The US recognised that taking on a small amount of risk now, was far cheaper in the long run.
And that's the principle of NATO. We accept that we need to defend places far from home, because stopping an aggressive and expansionary country gets more expensive each time around. Stopping Hitler in the Saarland would have resulted in far fewer deaths, wouldn't it?
Have our horizons become so shrunk, that we risk terrible outcomes to avoid local pain? It's the psychology of the heroin addict, shutting out the real world for now, irrespective of the long term consequences of our actions.
At least in the 1930s we had begun to rearm, while we've continued to cut and pour immense resources into a pair of aircraft carriers that will be sod all use in a conflict with Russia.0 -
The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?0
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Which he achieves through inaction and fence-sitting because he can't campaign openly for it.rottenborough said:
He wants No Deal.Harris_Tweed said:
The longer he sits on his hands about Brexit, the more a de facto pact exists.anothernick said:
Jezza will not make a pact with the Tories under any circumstances whatsoever.Stark_Dawning said:
Interesting. A Boris-Jezza pact looks to be on the cards. Boris's having no qualms about humiliating the ERG certainly fits in with that.rottenborough said:0 -
Pretty much SOP for Labour. Tory women ministers have received similar "support" in the past.rottenborough said:0 -
Any new polls?
Do we have to wait for Sunday?0 -
For what it's worth, Boris' early moves have made me less likely to vote for him, not more.
That said, my constituency is still a blue-red marginal. In a forced choice between those options, it'd take a lot for me to do anything other than vote Conservative (so long as Corbyn or his ilk is Labour leader).0 -
I'm staggered she was welcomed back to Cabinet, let alone given one of the Offices of State. Forget the death penalty appearance on Question Time, as embarassing as it was, and remember why she was fired.TOPPING said:
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.
No, not for running a parallel foreign policy. (For that, she merely got ticked off.)
She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?2 -
Including Chris Skidmore as a junior health minister, so that is all of the Britannia Unchained authors appointed to this government.rottenborough said:Lower ranks starting to be filled:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/07/johnsons-ministerial-appointments.html
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/97811370322490 -
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
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Yes, but Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Furthermore, we are signatories to various treaties which guarantee the right of peoples to self determination. And, it's fair to say, that the people of Crimea would probably choose Russia over Ukraine.OblitusSumMe said:It's already past that point. Russian seizure of Crimea and eastern Ukraine contradict the guarantees of Ukrainian territorial integrity that we signed up to in the Memorandum when they handed their nukes over to Russia.
At least in the 1930s we had begun to rearm, while we've continued to cut and pour immense resources into a pair of aircraft carriers that will be sod all use in a conflict with Russia.
So, it's not an analagous situation.1 -
I have had applicants for jobs with similar sorts of CVs: on paper they appear to have all the right qualifications and experience but look carefully. They are “parts of teams”, they “worked for” someone who did something. There is a carefully scripted vagueness about what they actually did. And when interviewed, it tends to fall apart. In practice Raab has been useless in office and has got himself a reputation for untrustworthiness in the EU, which is not a great start for a Foreign Secretary.SouthamObserver said:
He’s only just found out Britain is an island off the coast of France.Foxy said:@SouthamObserver
While I share your low opinion of most of the cabinet, particularly Williamson and Patel, Raab at the FCO is a different kettle of fish. He has years of experience working at the FCO in the New Labour era, indeed a CV which suits a SJW, including human rights activism, working for the ICC, Liberty and even Palestinian government. From Wikipedia:
"After leaving Cambridge, Raab worked at Linklaters in London, completing his two-year training contract at the firm and then leaving shortly after qualifying as a solicitor in 2000. Whilst at Linklaters he worked on project finance, international litigation and competition law. This included time on secondments at Liberty (the human rights NGO) and in Brussels advising on EU and WTO law.[15][third-party source needed] He spent the summer of 1998 at Birzeit University near Ramallah, Palestine's de facto capital on the West Bank, where he worked for one of the principal Palestinian negotiators of the Oslo peace accords, assessing World Bank projects on the West Bank.
Raab joined the Foreign Office in 2000, covering a range of briefs including leading a team at the British Embassy in The Hague, dedicated to bringing war criminals to justice. After returning to London, he advised on the Arab–Israeli conflict, the European Union, and Gibraltar. "0 -
Of course, those women have pre-selected themselves. If they loathed Boris they would not be there to throw their knickers granny-pants at him.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
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Surrounded by over-60 women who routinely vote Tory in national elections, my experience tallies with Alastair's. Even the most committed Leavers loathe Johnson.Beibheirli_C said:
Define "Older" ...AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Being on the wrong side of 50my detailed assessment is that I believe he lacks a spine (reportedly run away from too many awkward situations), his pronouncements on race and colour convince me that he is anything but tolerant and if he has a plan we are yet to hear it rather than the vague objectives that he blusters about.
Executive summary: I cannot think of a role he is fit for, but PM is not it. If he worked me I would fire him.
They don't vote Tory from ideology, commitment to free enterprise or even a favourable view of their Tory MP: they simply believed - till Johnson emerged as a likely leader - that Tories can be relied on to manage the economy, defend the country, keep law & order, and treat the lower orders with some dignity.
All that dissolves with Johnson. They smell a spiv. A few more will definitely vote Green, but most will vote LibDem. Would they revert if the Tories had a grownup leader? Possibly not till the following election cycle: in a few cases never0 -
That's a fair point.Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
We have at least two members of the four great offices of state who have been fired for lying. The President of the United States wouldn't know what truth was if it hit him with a stick.
We're fucked, aren't we?0 -
I am with you on this.malcolmg said:
FantasyGallowgate said:Swinsurge continues...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1154536468192382976?s=210 -
According to Iain Dale there is a convention that a minister fired for an impropriety should not be bought back until they have faced the electorate i.e. after the following GE.Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
Cyclefree said:
... There is a carefully scripted vagueness about what they actually did. And when interviewed, it tends to fall apart. In practice Raab has been useless in office and has got himself a reputation for untrustworthiness in the EU, which is not a great start for a Foreign Secretary.
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Well Gavin Williamson has (allegedly**) lied to the PM, police and also leaked national security secrets. That seems to equate to 'slightly less of a promotion than might otherwise have been expected'.rcs1000 said:
I'm staggered she was welcomed back to Cabinet, let alone given one of the Offices of State. Forget the death penalty appearance on Question Time, as embarassing as it was, and remember why she was fired.TOPPING said:
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.
No, not for running a parallel foreign policy. (For that, she merely got ticked off.)
She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
Kinder, gentler politics in action.glw said:
Pretty much SOP for Labour. Tory women ministers have received similar "support" in the past.rottenborough said:0 -
They increased their number of seats by 50%. What was the percentage increase for Labour?justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
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Boris sacked for lying to his boss.rcs1000 said:
I'm staggered she was welcomed back to Cabinet, let alone given one of the Offices of State. Forget the death penalty appearance on Question Time, as embarassing as it was, and remember why she was fired.TOPPING said:
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.
No, not for running a parallel foreign policy. (For that, she merely got ticked off.)
She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Patel sacked for lying to her boss.
Williamson sacked as boss thought him to be lying.
Leadsom accused of misleading over her CV.
Jenrick accused of misleading over his CV.
Then we come the master, Grant Shapps....
Clearly honesty is not a priority in this government.0 -
That all sounds about right. My Tory votes in the past were focused on being "relied on to manage the economy, defend the country, keep law & order"Flanner said:Surrounded by over-60 women who routinely vote Tory in national elections, my experience tallies with Alastair's. Even the most committed Leavers loathe Johnson.
They don't vote Tory from ideology, commitment to free enterprise or even a favourable view of their Tory MP: they simply believed - till Johnson emerged as a likely leader - that Tories can be relied on to manage the economy, defend the country, keep law & order, and treat the lower orders with some dignity.
All that dissolves with Johnson. They smell a spiv. A few more will definitely vote Green, but most will vote LibDem. Would they revert if the Tories had a grownup leader? Possibly not till the following election cycle: in a few cases never0 -
I get Javid as Uncle Hester but how could he resist Rees-Mogg as Lurch?Scott_P said:0 -
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
They are demonstrably being much kinder on anti-semites to be fair.Floater said:
Kinder, gentler politics in action.glw said:
Pretty much SOP for Labour. Tory women ministers have received similar "support" in the past.rottenborough said:0 -
Because Labour's profligate spending meant tough choices were necessary.anothernick said:
Indeed. The army is now almost 1/3 smaller than it was in 2010.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, my point is that it has been Conservative governments that cut the armed forces and the police. This is counterintuitive because the Tories are generally held to be strong on defence and law & order. The cuts later came home to roost.TOPPING said:
Your point is that by cutting policemen it is all of a sudden the victims' fault that they are mugged/shot/burgled. And by cutting the Royal Navy, it was Thatcher's fault that Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.DecrepitJohnL said:Theresa May axing 20,000 coppers ... (soon to be replaced by Boris if we can find enough new lockers).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kit-malthouse-says-plan-to-hire-police-is-at-risk-from-lack-of-lockers-6dsnplnjn
1) Mrs Thatcher cut the navy.
2) Argentina (as had been predicted and as the government had been warned) invaded.
3) War.
4) Mrs Thatcher made yet more cuts to the navy so the armada could not be re-assembled.
5) John Nott walked out when challenged on this by Robin Day.
For all your sophistry, you do not seem to be challenging the facts of the cuts. It is Conservative governments that have decimated the armed forces. Putin would vote Tory.
That would be quite funny if it wasn't so worrying.
In 2010 for every £4 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
Now for every £34 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
How do you suppose we as a nation could have fixed Labour's mess without some cuts from 2010?0 -
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
The Times fired him for making stuff up.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Here is a list. Enjoy....
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/37-lies-gaffes-scandals-make-185586950 -
Please, Beverley, it's many hours till the watershed!Beibheirli_C said:
Of course, those women have pre-selected themselves. If they loathed Boris they would not be there to throw their knickers granny-pants at him.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
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But there can be no election now until 10th October - even if Johnson tries to call it himself. After two and a half months in office he will not be that new. To capitalize on any bounce , he needed to call the election yesterday for early September.Mexicanpete said:
Is everyone left in the PLP so browbeaten, resigned or unambitious that they can't muster another challenge to Corbyn?SouthamObserver said:
Any Labour MPs voting with Johnson would almost certainly be voting to end their political careers. A few are standing down at the next GE, though, so he could get those. Hoey is a given.Casino_Royale said:
We know he doesn’t have the votes to get the (or his) WA through the HoC. So it looks like he’ll either play Russian roulette with Parliament, or go for a GE if forced.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. P, interesting tweet, if accurate (loss of Grayling, very pro-leave and pro-Boris, indicates it might be). If Boris can't even get the hardliners behind him, he's got half a faction.
Difficult to oust a PM. Not so hard to undermine one.
There’s talk of these magical 40 Labour MPs who might somehow vote it through. They won’t materialise.
Johnson has banked on an immediate bounce and that any significant electoral surge for the LDs will damage Labour MP numbers. Under FPTP this will enhance seat numbers for the Tories. The LDs excitement at knocking Labour into third in terms of vote share still leaves us with Johnson.
Johnson can only be pegged back from his 35% voteshare landslide in two ways. A stronger-Corbyn-free Labour leading the charge or mass defections to the LDs by Corbyn-fearng Labour MPs. They need to get off their sorry rumps and do one or tge other.
It speaks volumes too that good people on the Tory side like Grieve are so tribal they too feel they have to stay with the Party and hold their noses. I suspect many, many Tory voters opposed to Johnson will do the same.
At present Johnson looks invincible, all the stars have aligned for a small window at least.1 -
"It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."noneoftheabove said:
Boris sacked for lying to his boss.rcs1000 said:
I'm staggered she was welcomed back to Cabinet, let alone given one of the Offices of State. Forget the death penalty appearance on Question Time, as embarassing as it was, and remember why she was fired.TOPPING said:
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.
No, not for running a parallel foreign policy. (For that, she merely got ticked off.)
She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Patel sacked for lying to her boss.
Williamson sacked as boss thought him to be lying.
Leadsom accused of misleading over her CV.
Jenrick accused of misleading over his CV.
Then we come the master, Grant Shapps....
Clearly honesty is not a priority in this government.
- Boris, 2004.0 -
You’re far too soft. I’d never have hired him. He’d make a good subject for one of my investigations.Beibheirli_C said:
Define "Older" ...AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Being on the wrong side of 50my detailed assessment is that I believe he lacks a spine (reportedly run away from too many awkward situations), his pronouncements on race and colour convince me that he is anything but tolerant and if he has a plan we are yet to hear it rather than the vague objectives that he blusters about.
Executive summary: I cannot think of a role he is fit for, but PM is not it. If he worked me I would fire him.0 -
I'm not sure anyone is extrapolating are they (other than in fun)? We all know about the LDs in by elections. But really what do you expect them to do when these results come in? Stuff is happening nationally with all the parties. The LDs were dead and buried and now they are revived. Whether it leads to anything is another matter. You are being a sourpuss if you can't let them have some joy with it.justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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Beibheirli_C said:
Of course, those women have pre-selected themselves. If they loathed Boris they would not be there to throw their knickers granny-pants at him.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Oi!! Granny pants are very useful things. We cannot have everything going south when we garden.0 -
But...the LibDems got some good local election results just prior to the 2015 election too. Before they were marmalised.....rcs1000 said:
They increased their number of seats by 50%. What was the percentage increase for Labour?justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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On his first outing in the Commons as pm BJ stated that Nicola Sturgeon became FM without a vote.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
That was a lie.0 -
I don't think I understand that and I have a feeling I don't want to.Cyclefree said:Beibheirli_C said:
Of course, those women have pre-selected themselves. If they loathed Boris they would not be there to throw their knickers granny-pants at him.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Oi!! Granny pants are very useful things. We cannot have everything going south when we garden.0 -
She wouldn't be saying that if Priti was white! Kerry-Anne Mendoza = racist!Scott_P said:0 -
Not just far left corbynites on twatter...the guardian happily published an article stating the same yesterday.rottenborough said:
Wrong kind of BAMEs apparently. Trying to claim javid is some sort of far right extremist is quite bizarre.1 -
Boris Johnson, who is Prime Minister, was previously fired from a job for lying.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Better?0 -
When did the Scottish public vote to make Sturgeon PM?Theuniondivvie said:
On his first outing in the Commons as pm BJ stated that Nicola Sturgeon became FM without a vote.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
That was a lie.0 -
Better.rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson, who is Prime Minister, was previously fired from a job for lying.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Better?
Everyone has a past. Big difference between past mistakes [in this case wasn't it nearly 3 decades ago?] and malfeasance in office.0 -
0
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Well, I suppose saying she wouldn't call a GE and then doing so would meet the usual criterion.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
The trend for the LibDems in the 2010-2015 local elections was appalling, though. They stopped even standing in wards they used to win. Indeed, on this board, the disaster of their position in local government, and their collapse in councillor numbers was used as evidence that they were never coming back.MarqueeMark said:
But...the LibDems got some good local election results just prior to the 2015 election too. Before they were marmalised.....rcs1000 said:
They increased their number of seats by 50%. What was the percentage increase for Labour?justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
0 -
15 years ago:Philip_Thompson said:
Better.rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson, who is Prime Minister, was previously fired from a job for lying.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Better?
Everyone has a past. Big difference between past mistakes [in this case wasn't it nearly 3 decades ago?] and malfeasance in office.
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
- Boris, 2004.0 -
21 years ago:Sunil_Prasannan said:
15 years ago:Philip_Thompson said:
Better.rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson, who is Prime Minister, was previously fired from a job for lying.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Better?
Everyone has a past. Big difference between past mistakes [in this case wasn't it nearly 3 decades ago?] and malfeasance in office.
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
- Boris, 2004.
"I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky."
- POTUS, 19980 -
Back then, nobody reckoned on the power of The Re-animator - Theresa May!rcs1000 said:
The trend for the LibDems in the 2010-2015 local elections was appalling, though. They stopped even standing in wards they used to win. Indeed, on this board, the disaster of their position in local government, and their collapse in councillor numbers was used as evidence that they were never coming back.MarqueeMark said:
But...the LibDems got some good local election results just prior to the 2015 election too. Before they were marmalised.....rcs1000 said:
They increased their number of seats by 50%. What was the percentage increase for Labour?justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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PM? They never have had a vote to make her PM and never will.Philip_Thompson said:
When did the Scottish public vote to make Sturgeon PM?Theuniondivvie said:
On his first outing in the Commons as pm BJ stated that Nicola Sturgeon became FM without a vote.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
That was a lie.
The Scottish Parliament votes on who becomes FM, in 2014 NS won with 66 votes, Ruth lost comprehensively with 15 votes. Perhaps the mother of parliaments might care to look into such exercises of democratic accountability.0 -
Typo, FM.Theuniondivvie said:
PM? They never have had a vote to make her PM and never will.Philip_Thompson said:
When did the Scottish public vote to make Sturgeon PM?Theuniondivvie said:
On his first outing in the Commons as pm BJ stated that Nicola Sturgeon became FM without a vote.eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
That was a lie.
The Scottish Parliament votes on who becomes FM, in 2015 NS won with 66 votes, Ruth lost comprehensively with 15 votes. Perhaps the mother of parliaments might care to look into such exercises of democratic accountability.
So the public never voted? If Parliament wants to hold a vote on Boris, Parliament is entitled to do so. LOTO Corbyn chose to waive holding a vote.0 -
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My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was making the best of a bad situation, commented on our family whatsapp group that Boris was completely unsuitable as PM, not because of his political record but because of his attitude to women.AlastairMeeks said:
I obviously move in more decorous circles. His arrival has been noted on my facebook feed (which is studiously unpolitical most of the time). Almost all the comment has come from older women. None of it has been complimentary.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Sample:
"Oh God BORIS,! It's true what they say then, America sneezes and we get flu. Or the fool in this case, who'd vote for a man that can't find himself a decent barber. Oh that's right the USA."
This from a woman who has used the phrase "suck it up buttercup" about the referendum result.
I am sure she is not alone in taking that view.0 -
Well, that lasted all of, what, 48 hours?Scott_P said:0 -
The global financial crisis was not Labour's mess and the answer to your question is through economic growth, which is the natural state of the economy, rather than flatlining the recovery inherited from Labour.Philip_Thompson said:
Because Labour's profligate spending meant tough choices were necessary.anothernick said:
Indeed. The army is now almost 1/3 smaller than it was in 2010.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, my point is that it has been Conservative governments that cut the armed forces and the police. This is counterintuitive because the Tories are generally held to be strong on defence and law & order. The cuts later came home to roost.TOPPING said:
Your point is that by cutting policemen it is all of a sudden the victims' fault that they are mugged/shot/burgled. And by cutting the Royal Navy, it was Thatcher's fault that Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.DecrepitJohnL said:Theresa May axing 20,000 coppers ... (soon to be replaced by Boris if we can find enough new lockers).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kit-malthouse-says-plan-to-hire-police-is-at-risk-from-lack-of-lockers-6dsnplnjn
1) Mrs Thatcher cut the navy.
2) Argentina (as had been predicted and as the government had been warned) invaded.
3) War.
4) Mrs Thatcher made yet more cuts to the navy so the armada could not be re-assembled.
5) John Nott walked out when challenged on this by Robin Day.
For all your sophistry, you do not seem to be challenging the facts of the cuts. It is Conservative governments that have decimated the armed forces. Putin would vote Tory.
That would be quite funny if it wasn't so worrying.
In 2010 for every £4 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
Now for every £34 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
How do you suppose we as a nation could have fixed Labour's mess without some cuts from 2010?
Leaving that to one side, it is idle to pretend you could cut tens of thousands of boats, tommies and coppers without reducing our capacity to protect Rolex-wearers and oil tankers. Of course, crime adds to GDP so there is that!0 -
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
Boris is only a day in and already these people are already pouring poison and bitterness upon his sunshine. Why can't they just be happy for him?Scott_P said:0 -
The Brecon and Radnor parliamentary one next week will be interesting. I had it nailed-on as LD.. but if a Boris Bounce lets the (convicted) Tory hold on, that will be somewhat narrative-altering.kjh said:
I'm not sure anyone is extrapolating are they (other than in fun)? We all know about the LDs in by elections. But really what do you expect them to do when these results come in? Stuff is happening nationally with all the parties. The LDs were dead and buried and now they are revived. Whether it leads to anything is another matter. You are being a sourpuss if you can't let them have some joy with it.justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
0 -
https://twitter.com/guywalters/status/1154708983908917248Roger said:I get Javid as Uncle Hester but how could he resist Rees-Mogg as Lurch?
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I think my mum would agree with that, judging from her recent commentsanothernick said:
My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was making the best of a bad situation, commented on our family whatsapp group that Boris was completely unsuitable as PM, not because of his political record but because of his attitude to women.AlastairMeeks said:
I obviously move in more decorous circles. His arrival has been noted on my facebook feed (which is studiously unpolitical most of the time). Almost all the comment has come from older women. None of it has been complimentary.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Sample:
"Oh God BORIS,! It's true what they say then, America sneezes and we get flu. Or the fool in this case, who'd vote for a man that can't find himself a decent barber. Oh that's right the USA."
This from a woman who has used the phrase "suck it up buttercup" about the referendum result.
I am sure she is not alone in taking that view.0 -
Do you not have a Yorkshire First candidate, Morris, or something of that ilk? He/she won't get in, but you'll feel a lot better about it afterwards.Morris_Dancer said:For what it's worth, Boris' early moves have made me less likely to vote for him, not more.
That said, my constituency is still a blue-red marginal. In a forced choice between those options, it'd take a lot for me to do anything other than vote Conservative (so long as Corbyn or his ilk is Labour leader).0 -
Barnier has recently retweeted Junckers conversation with Boris. The WA is not open for negotiation, though they would consider changes to the PD that are compatible with the WA. The EU27 have been very consistent in not undermining each other.Philip_Thompson said:
People keep saying this "EU team is disbanded" stuff but actually Barnier is still there and he said even yesterday that he remains available for talks with the UK through the summer.Beibheirli_C said:
I wonder who he thinks Boris is going to negotiate with? AIUI, the EU Team is disbanded. Gone. Exit stage left pursued by a Johnsonrottenborough said:
Hot air.Harris_Tweed said:I know it's bad, but every time I see this pic I'm getting the Looney Toons theme sequence in my head. I reassure myself it *is* only the background (as per https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91gOCgWhHJL._SX300_.jpg)
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1154672704789909505?s=20
If the talks hit a breakthrough, whether it be with Barnier or Varadkar, it won't take long to fill the formalities to get an amendment made. Though it does look like the EU may decide to see what the next General Election brings instead.
https://twitter.com/Mina_Andreeva/status/1154427956015632384?s=190 -
Big big mistake not to get Steve Baker on board. Fighting on one flank is near impossible, but having this on the Brexity flank makes life impossible. Maybe Steve Baker needs to believe in Britain more?Scott_P said:
0