politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson and Farage should now be included in polling “best PM”
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson and Farage should now be included in polling “best PM” ratings alongside Johnson and Corbyn
Latest surveys are clear – the binary CON-LAB choice much less applicable
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
If it wasnt for Brexit and also the profligacy in spending commitments I would be optimistic- he seems really up for it
So this thread topic's exactly what's needed.
And yes, I have been very surprised by Boris today and his filleting of Corbyn and McDonnell has been long overdue by the conservative party
1. Joe
2. Jess
3.
4.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/boris-johnson-new-cabinet-prime-minister-ministerial-party-country
The question is what do we think the 'it' is?
What is he mainly keen to promote?
(a) The national interest.
(b) The party interest.
(c) Boris Johnson.
He should be composing an apology to Mrs Leon Brittan
Plus - her teeth are too big for her face! Weirdly distracting....
You said Lab would have won in 1997 and 2001:
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get?
b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
The one on the day of her leadership acceptance was even worse - it made her look as though she had jaundice.
It's shallow, but image matters.
Even he regards Andrea Jenkyns as a loon too far.
Picking up the NE Somerset discussion from the previous thread, based on the 2017 result it’s a safe Tory seat with Labour a clear second.
Yet on the national polls both Tory and Labour have lost about half of their GE vote share and the LibDem vote has doubled or trebled.
These vote shifts won’t fall evenly, and the odds are that a seat like NE Somerset - which the LibDems “won” in this year’s local elections and polled very well in the Euro elections - is likely to be one where the remainer shift to the LibDems is greater than average.
On a UNS model the Tories are still clear winner with Lib and Lab fighting for second place. On Flavible’s more sophisticated (not necessarily more accurate) model, the LibDems are running the Tories close for first place.
Aside from our political futures, the betting opportunities, and risks, are likely to focus upon calling seats such as this correctly.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
Rudd: gave Bojo valuable Remainery support in the leadership contest (tick).
Admittedly, in a reshuffle where people like Mordaunt got fired (and especially given Morgan's previous anti-Boris stance), I'm a little surprised.. but I can see how both have done their bit to be redeemed.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
That's a keeper.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
I was simply arguing that LDs can get the tactical vote (particularly currently) but Labour can not (enough to unseat JRM).
The LDs probably won't and things may change to make this scenario redundant (LDs drop in the polls).
Everything has changed since the last election. Looking at results from 2017 and saying the LDs are nowhere and Lab are 2nd and assuming that is guide is nonsense. The LDs got massacred in 2017 so you have to look further back and see if it really is a straight Lab/Con seat.
There biggest problem for the LDs could be the targeting of easier pickings near by.
And our politics today is nothing like 2010.
If the Tories did not have a leader committed to deliver Brexit though it may have been
So the polls might have an entirely correct answer to quite the wrong question.
That's the point, though. She looks absolutely fine, but somehow contrives regularly to be photographed or filmed by incompetent amateurs.
In contrast Boris deliberately looks like a mess, but is a well shot mess.
The leadership acceptance speech was especially egregious, as they had complete control of lighting and cameras.
And if polls stay as they are (noting of course that there is a perfectly reasonable counter-argument that a GE might drive a return to two-party politics) the collapse in the Labour vote and the surge in LibDem support has to appear somewhere. And a seat like NE Somerset is very likely to be well above average in terms of Lab-LibD swing, based on actual votes cast there this year.
Our success as punters is going to rest heavily on our ability to read the new political landscape and not get overly distracted by looking back at past results with UNS fixed in our minds.
https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
I don't agree with his politics and he has other faults, but lack of energy, charisma and passion are not amongst them.
The name, as with all names, is up for grabs and can always be changed. I don’t like the rather worthy “These Islands”, Dairmud Maculloch’s “Atlantic Islands” doesn’t work because it could equally include the Canaries, and I can’t think of a suitable alternative. I once suggested the “Anglo-Celtic Islands” to someone but they thought I was taking the piss.
A positive message is right wing ? That’s a new one..
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
However if the polls aren’t wrong, and don’t change, then NE Somerset is a clear LibDem target and a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote.
"I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis." - 2003.
"My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive." - 2004.