The view from the cognescenti - moi - was that he came across as a shallow and entitled old ham who appeared not to have matured a great deal, either emotionally or intellectually, from his days at the Oxford Union decades ago.
But looking for the positives - since I do not want to be a total 'gloomster' - he was not drunk. Or if he was, he hid it well.
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
It’s not geographical “fact” that the archipelago is the “British Isles”, that’s just a name, a nomenclature that was, as you say, commonly used until the second half of the late C20. You can argue that it is a fact that we are all part of the same archipelago (I would agree) but so are Corsica and Sardinia and I don’t know of a collective name for them.
The name, as with all names, is up for grabs and can always be changed. I don’t like the rather worthy “These Islands”, Dairmud Maculloch’s “Atlantic Islands” doesn’t work because it could equally include the Canaries, and I can’t think of a suitable alternative. I once suggested the “Anglo-Celtic Islands” to someone but they thought I was taking the piss.
Sodor- the southern islands (from a Norse perspective).
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Missed BoJo's First Commons performance (was at a Service of Thanksgiving) but it seems to have been a showstopper anway
It's where we would have been three years ago if only Mr (Mrs?) Gove hadn't stuck their ambitious oar in.....
Yes, love him or loathe him Boris has brought new energy, charisma and passion to No 10
He’s been there less than 24 hours FFS. People were eulogising May in similar ways three years ago. The public, who had no say in his appointment either, see right through the charade. Gove tried to save us but he only managed to postpone the arrival of the man who dooms the U.K.
Yes, I think we're getting May-euphoria revisited from exactly the same people who were desperate to swoon first time around. But today is Boris's day. Let him and his admirers enjoy it. I suspect it will be followed by a harsh coming down.
On the basis of notional calculations made at the time of the 2010 Boundary changes the seat would have been marginal in 2005.
You are definitely doing an HYFD. You are ignoring the fact that I accepted originally they could win in a landslide situation (it was in my analysis) and are using really dubious data (notional calculations on such boundary changes are not that accurate) and even then it only becomes marginal (if it had existed) during a period of big wins by Labour.
I was simply arguing that LDs can get the tactical vote (particularly currently) but Labour can not (enough to unseat JRM).
The LDs probably won't and things may change to make this scenario redundant (LDs drop in the polls).
Everything has changed since the last election. Looking at results from 2017 and saying the LDs are nowhere and Lab are 2nd and assuming that is guide is nonsense. The LDs got massacred in 2017 so you have to look further back and see if it really is a straight Lab/Con seat.
There biggest problem for the LDs could be the targeting of easier pickings near by.
Yes.
And if polls stay as they are (noting of course that there is a perfectly reasonable counter-argument that a GE might drive a return to two-party politics) the collapse in the Labour vote and the surge in LibDem support has to appear somewhere. And a seat like NE Somerset is very likely to be well above average in terms of Lab-LibD swing, based on actual votes cast there this year.
Our success as punters is going to rest heavily on our ability to read the new political landscape and not get overly distracted by looking back at past results with UNS fixed in our minds.
But in 2010 there were polls putting the LibDems clearly ahead of Labour right up to Polling Day . Despite that , Labour was within 10% of winning here - and might well have done so in 2005 - never mind 1997 and 2001.
Of course there is an argument that the polls might be wrong. Or that things might change as a GE approaches, or during the campaign.
However if the polls aren’t wrong, and don’t change, then NE Somerset is a clear LibDem target and a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote.
It needs a progressive alliance with them both preferably standing down for someone who lives in the seat, e.g. Dr Phil Hammond
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
On the basis of notional calculations made at the time of the 2010 Boundary changes the seat would have been marginal in 2005.
You are definitely doing an HYFD. You are ignoring the fact that I accepted originally they could win in a landslide situation (it was in my analysis) and are using really dubious data (notional calculations on such boundary changes are not that accurate) and even then it only becomes marginal (if it had existed) during a period of big wins by Labour.
I was simply arguing that LDs can get the tactical vote (particularly currently) but Labour can not (enough to unseat JRM).
The LDs probably won't and things may change to make this scenario redundant (LDs drop in the polls).
Everything has changed since the last election. Looking at results from 2017 and saying the LDs are nowhere and Lab are 2nd and assuming that is guide is nonsense. The LDs got massacred in 2017 so you have to look further back and see if it really is a straight Lab/Con seat.
There biggest problem for the LDs could be the targeting of easier pickings near by.
Yes.
And if polls stay as they are (noting of course that there is a perfectly reasonable counter-argument that a GE might drive a return to two-party politics) the collapse in the Labour vote and the surge in LibDem support has to appear somewhere. And a seat like NE Somerset is very likely to be well above average in terms of Lab-LibD swing, based on actual votes cast there this year.
Our success as punters is going to rest heavily on our ability to read the new political landscape and not get overly distracted by looking back at past results with UNS fixed in our minds.
But in 2010 there were polls putting the LibDems clearly ahead of Labour right up to Polling Day . Despite that , Labour was within 10% of winning here - and might well have done so in 2005 - never mind 1997 and 2001.
Of course there is an argument that the polls might be wrong. Or that things might change as a GE approaches, or during the campaign.
However if the polls aren’t wrong, and don’t change, then NE Somerset is a clear LibDem target and a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote.
That is a non sequitur - because even as the polls stand today - setting aside any changes closer to Polling Day - the LibDems are not outpolling Labour in the way they were in the final two weeks of the 2010 campaign.
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Missed BoJo's First Commons performance (was at a Service of Thanksgiving) but it seems to have been a showstopper anway
It's where we would have been three years ago if only Mr (Mrs?) Gove hadn't stuck their ambitious oar in.....
Yes, love him or loathe him Boris has brought new energy, charisma and passion to No 10
He’s been there less than 24 hours FFS. People were eulogising May in similar ways three years ago. The public, who had no say in his appointment either, see right through the charade. Gove tried to save us but he only managed to postpone the arrival of the man who dooms the U.K.
Missed BoJo's First Commons performance (was at a Service of Thanksgiving) but it seems to have been a showstopper anway
It's where we would have been three years ago if only Mr (Mrs?) Gove hadn't stuck their ambitious oar in.....
Yes, love him or loathe him Boris has brought new energy, charisma and passion to No 10
He’s been there less than 24 hours FFS. People were eulogising May in similar ways three years ago. The public, who had no say in his appointment either, see right through the charade. Gove tried to save us but he only managed to postpone the arrival of the man who dooms the U.K.
Theresa May had a +27 point satisfaction rating at this point of her premiership. Johnson goes into his with a -19 rating. Admittedly way clear of Corbyn on -58 and May on -44. Ipsos Mori figures.
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
You might well be right, but that wasn't what we were arguing about was it?
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
Yes, very M like, imo.
Mussolini was also a journalist. Il Duce BJ it is then.
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Not on the basis of 2010 when the LDs polled 23% nationally - with Labour on 29% - Labour was well ahead of the LibDems here and less than 5,000 behind the Tories! 2005 was not a landslide - a mere 3% national lead - but Labour probably would have won here that year had the seat existed - given the 2010 result.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
You might well be right, but that wasn't what we were arguing about was it?
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
Yes, very M like, imo.
Mussolini was also a journalist. Il Duce BJ it is then.
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
Can you point to any more unpleasant than Farage right wing policies that he introduced as London Mayor? Not that I am saying that you are part of the frothing left wing commentary brigade but I like to make my judgement on action not reaction
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Theresa threatening to cancel Brexit? I think you must have dreamt that.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
There's an element of JFK in Boris too. In fact 'Ask not what your country can do for you' is almost proto-Boris in its sentiment and tone. And, let's face it, had Boris and Marilyn been around at the same time, does anyone think Boris wouldn't have gone there?
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
To add to this The SCon surge was based on mass LD switching in the northeast. They are not going to stay switched at the next election.
Better Together is broken. A Con-led Unionist campaign would be a car crash of biblical proportions. They need SLD brains and SLab brawn, otherwise they’re stuffed.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
I hope we don't get the economic stagnation that Berlusconi brought to Italy
The Lib Dems need defections. Don't be fooled by Johnson's Mussolini tomfoolery. He is more unpleasantly right wing than Farage. I've no doubt that the country will quickly grow to despise him but without a credible Labour leader it's all down to the Lib Dems
Yes, very M like, imo.
LOL - the Left have really lost their shit over Johnson.
It was only a few years ago people were saying he was too liberal for Cameron's govt and being chastised by the right for advocating an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
There's an element of JFK in Boris too. In fact 'Ask not what your country can do for you' is almost proto-Boris in its sentiment and tone. And, let's face it, had Boris and Marilyn been around at the same time, does anyone think Boris wouldn't have gone there?
Indeed, Boris a playboy if not quite in the JFK league looks wise.
JFK also got on very well with Macmillan who was PM at the time of his presidency, Macmillan like Boris went to Eton
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Theresa threatening to cancel Brexit? I think you must have dreamt that.
On many occasions she said that the alternative to her WA was No Brexit.
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing anknow that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Exactly.
And, because the effective ceiling in that seat on the Labour vote (under Corbyn) is lower than the ceiling on the LibDem vote - despite Labour having a higher floor and a higher average (in previous electoral environments at least), it is both realistic and likely that the LibDem chance of winning the seat, whilst perhaps low, is nevertheless several orders of magnitude above Labour’s chances.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
I think Thatcher is Johnson's playbook. We're so used to consensus politics we have forgotten about divide and rule. It looks like we're returning to a period of antagonism and mutual loathing.
I'm hoping Johnson's is a Fail Fast project. So far Brexit has been Fail Slow unfortunately.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Err... how was May going to be able to cancel Brexit? Boris voted for it because he judged it to be in his best interest. He couldn't care less about the backstop.
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
I hope we don't get the economic stagnation that Berlusconi brought to Italy
Though Berlusconi did produce the lowest tax to GDP ratio in 20 years
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
So he was uncompromisingly against it until he compromised
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Well in that case we will just ditch Corbyn & McDonnell and go with Reeves & Mortimer. Next general election to be decided by giggle-o-meter.
I will be going to my first ever party meeting soon (hopefully) and had been wondering how to make an impact. Problem solved.
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Theresa threatening to cancel Brexit? I think you must have dreamt that.
On many occasions she said that the alternative to her WA was No Brexit.
Presumably back in those heady days when advocating No Deal would rightly see you strapped in the giggle jacket.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
"He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it" So, he was compromisingly against it?
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
"He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it" So, he was compromisingly against it?
a) What part of my 'can only win if on course for a landslide anyway' did you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Exactly.
Not so!
So what is wrong with the logic? Stop just repeating old scores and argue the logic.
....giving Jean-Claude enough time to stop laughing.
This could be the killer moment. If Junker tells Boris to stick it, then that will absolutely, positively, definitely be No Deal. If Boris is offered a fig leaf on the other hand, then it's over to Nigel.
a) What you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Let’s take the recent YouGov poll, but tweak it slightly so that both Labour and LibDem are equal on 21%, with the Tories on 25%, BXP on 18% and Greens on 8%.
Feed the result into Flavible’s model, and their prediction for NE Somerset is:
Tory 30.7% LibDem 27.6% Labour 16.1% BXP 15.7%
With any sort of result close to that, it is obvious that the outcome in the seat depends on Labour voters’ willingness to vote tactically for the LibDems.
....giving Jean-Claude enough time to stop laughing.
They can take out the backstop by making the transition period indefinite, which they MIGHT agree to. Maybe. Of course that's no say and full budget contributions, so I'd hardly have thought it is BoJo's first choice.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
To add to this The SCon surge was based on mass LD switching in the northeast. They are not going to stay switched at the next election.
Better Together is broken. A Con-led Unionist campaign would be a car crash of biblical proportions. They need SLD brains and SLab brawn, otherwise they’re stuffed.
BT worked but will never work again. It sapped SLab strength because of the inherent association with the Tories and the LDs were already tainted by coalition. The main hope of any successor will be to try to run individual campaigns that are highly targeted at specific groups in the manner of Vote Leave. However they won't face such a useless campaign that struggled to unite its constituent parts as Vote Leave did. They'll be facing a very smart, very unified and very angry Yes team with a lot of powerful arguments at their side and a likeable, effective leader.
....giving Jean-Claude enough time to stop laughing.
They can take out the backstop by making the transition period indefinite, which they MIGHT agree to. Maybe. Of course that's no say and full budget contributions, so I'd hardly have thought it is BoJo's first choice.
As opposed to the backstop, which is no say and no budget contributions. It would take a special kind of political genius to sell an indefinite transition as an improvement.
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
Yes, but geographically the British Isles include the island of Ireland, and in fact those people who live there and want to be part of the United Kingdom use the term British to apply to themselves (as well as other terms).
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
I agree he shouldn't have backed it on MV3. I remained consistent in opposition to the vile backstop and I'm delighted its dead. RIP, no mourners. Good riddance.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
I agree he shouldn't have backed it on MV3. I remained consistent in opposition to the vile backstop and I'm delighted its dead. RIP, no mourners. Good riddance.
Apart from a majority of the Northern Irish. But fuck them right?
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
There's an element of JFK in Boris too. In fact 'Ask not what your country can do for you' is almost proto-Boris in its sentiment and tone. And, let's face it, had Boris and Marilyn been around at the same time, does anyone think Boris wouldn't have gone there?
Could Boris be the Tories' Ronald Reagan? The Gripper only spoke in wise cracks and almost bankrupt the US economy, but many were happy just to bask in his 'optimism' and his 'folksy charm'. I suspect that, more than Trump, is the template Boris is trying to use.
Yes, if Hunt was Bush Snr, Boris was Reagan.
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
I hope we don't get the economic stagnation that Berlusconi brought to Italy
Though Berlusconi did produce the lowest tax to GDP ratio in 20 years
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
Has anyone seen her yet? How much longer can she keep up her disappearing act?
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
Yes, but geographically the British Isles include the island of Ireland, and in fact those people who live there and want to be part of the United Kingdom use the term British to apply to themselves (as well as other terms).
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
Has anyone seen her yet? How much longer can she keep up her disappearing act?
She said it was good news that Sajid Javid became Chancellor.
Barnstorming is what Boris does. He's very good at the rabble rousing speech and his eloquence and choice of language excellent. Against a softly spoken rather diffident man like Corbyn there will only ever be one winner in terms of impact, charisma and eloquence.
Get down to the content and it's another story - all the last 24 hours has shown me are two things. First, Boris is going to be optimistic and positive (to be fair, all new PMs start that way) but that "can do" attitude does little to disguise a vacuum of new thinking.
The Johnson approach seems analogous to the man who gets his Sunday roast lunch by walking into the restaurant and shouting "I want a table" repeatedly until the maître d' caves in and gets him a table. That will work for the first few weeks but once everyone realises shouting is all there is the man will be ignored and goes home hungry. Boris will attempt to barnstorm the EU by promising this that and the other and shouting but if the EU continue to say no change to the WA Boris is going to come home empty handed and we'll see how much appetite there is beyond the Cabinet table for a No Deal.
Second, those who think Boris is a "Brexiteer" are wrong - he is a "Boriseer". His own personal survival and self aggrandisement are everything to him. If you thought getting May out of 10 DS was difficult, it'll be impossible to pry Boris out without an election defeat. Those who have sold their souls to Boris on the faustian pact he will keep them in jobs and win the Party a new mandate rely on him to deliver and cannot countenance him not doing so but I'm absolutely convinced he will sell the ERG down the river in an instant if it guarantees his survival. He would, pace Cameron, reach out to the LDs and even the SNP if he needed their votes to survive. He is a master of telling every audience exactly what they want to hear.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
I agree he shouldn't have backed it on MV3. I remained consistent in opposition to the vile backstop and I'm delighted its dead. RIP, no mourners. Good riddance.
Apart from a majority of the Northern Irish. But fuck them right?
Yes, fuck them.
On a sectarian basis one sectarian group wants to strip the fundamental human rights from another sectarian group. Fuck that it is never acceptable.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Exactly.
And, because the effective ceiling in that seat on the Labour vote (under Corbyn) is lower than the ceiling on the LibDem vote - despite Labour having a higher floor and a higher average (in previous electoral environments at least), it is both realistic and likely that the LibDem chance of winning the seat, whilst perhaps low, is nevertheless several orders of magnitude above Labour’s chances.
That is fanciful given the 2010 outcome in the seat and a likely Labour win in 2005 had the seat then existed. More generally, the LibDems are significantly less dominant in the West Country even compared with 2010. So much ground has been lost even in seats such as Taunton, Yeovil and Torbay where they had been the main challengers for several decades. In Somerset NE that has never been the case.
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
Yes, but geographically the British Isles include the island of Ireland, and in fact those people who live there and want to be part of the United Kingdom use the term British to apply to themselves (as well as other terms).
Are you calling Titchmarsh a nobody? How. Dare. You.
It's in pretty common usage, you'll find. Not as common as it was due to the sensitivities over the Republic of Ireland, but a hell of a lot more than the PC term "Atlantic Archipelago".
And I also come back to my point that unionists in Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the term "British" as applying to them, so your suggestion that Watson was excluding them by using it is nonsense.
He’s been there less than 24 hours FFS. People were eulogising May in similar ways three years ago. The public, who had no say in his appointment either, see right through the charade. Gove tried to save us but he only managed to postpone the arrival of the man who dooms the U.K.
Boris has charisma, May did not. May was more Brown than Boris
Mr Johnson has no charisma whatsoever. For me, he is just a scruffy oik, on the make. Thoroughly detestable.
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
Yes, but geographically the British Isles include the island of Ireland, and in fact those people who live there and want to be part of the United Kingdom use the term British to apply to themselves (as well as other terms).
Are you calling Titchmarsh a nobody? How. Dare. You.
It's in pretty common usage, you'll find. Not as common as it was due to the sensitivities over the Republic of Ireland, but a hell of a lot more than the PC term "Atlantic Archipelago".
And I also come back to my point that unionists in Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the term "British" as applying to them, so your suggestion that Watson was excluding them by using it is nonsense.
McDonald's use "British and Irish farmers" in their ads.
Barnstorming is what Boris does. He's very good at the rabble rousing speech and his eloquence and choice of language excellent. Against a softly spoken rather diffident man like Corbyn there will only ever be one winner in terms of impact, charisma and eloquence.
Get down to the content and it's another story - all the last 24 hours has shown me are two things. First, Boris is going to be optimistic and positive (to be fair, all new PMs start that way) but that "can do" attitude does little to disguise a vacuum of new thinking.
The Johnson approach seems analogous to the man who gets his Sunday roast lunch by walking into the restaurant and shouting "I want a table" repeatedly until the maître d' caves in and gets him a table. That will work for the first few weeks but once everyone realises shouting is all there is the man will be ignored and goes home hungry. Boris will attempt to barnstorm the EU by promising this that and the other and shouting but if the EU continue to say no change to the WA Boris is going to come home empty handed and we'll see how much appetite there is beyond the Cabinet table for a No Deal.
Second, those who think Boris is a "Brexiteer" are wrong - he is a "Boriseer". His own personal survival and self aggrandisement are everything to him. If you thought getting May out of 10 DS was difficult, it'll be impossible to pry Boris out without an election defeat. Those who have sold their souls to Boris on the faustian pact he will keep them in jobs and win the Party a new mandate rely on him to deliver and cannot countenance him not doing so but I'm absolutely convinced he will sell the ERG down the river in an instant if it guarantees his survival. He would, pace Cameron, reach out to the LDs and even the SNP if he needed their votes to survive. He is a master of telling every audience exactly what they want to hear.
Spot on. Except that he’s aiming for another five years’ mandate before he confronts Europe, I think.
This morning's performance by Johnson was extraordinary.
He was so excited, fast talking, full of positive bonhomie that he could have been on E. And it was contagious on the Tory side. They were all so excited. All that was missing was the house music and smiley faces.
On the other side, the sourpuss gloomster realists were not impressed at all by this display.
The Tories will now go away high and happy. The let down when reality bites will be cruel
a) What you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
But once you pass this assumption, it is a nonsense to apply the thinking and models developed in a world of small percentage swings between two large parties to the current environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Let’s take the recent YouGov poll, but tweak it slightly so that both Labour and LibDem are equal on 21%, with the Tories on 25%, BXP on 18% and Greens on 8%.
Feed the result into Flavible’s model, and their prediction for NE Somerset is:
Tory 30.7% LibDem 27.6% Labour 16.1% BXP 15.7%
With any sort of result close to that, it is obvious that the outcome in the seat depends on Labour voters’ willingness to vote tactically for the LibDems.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
I agree he shouldn't have backed it on MV3. I remained consistent in opposition to the vile backstop and I'm delighted its dead. RIP, no mourners. Good riddance.
Apart from a majority of the Northern Irish. But fuck them right?
Yes, fuck them.
On a sectarian basis one sectarian group wants to strip the fundamental human rights from another sectarian group. Fuck that it is never acceptable.
a) What you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
rent environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Let’s take the recent YouGov poll, but tweak it slightly so that both Labour and LibDem are equal on 21%, with the Tories on 25%, BXP on 18% and Greens on 8%.
Feed the result into Flavible’s model, and their prediction for NE Somerset is:
Tory 30.7% LibDem 27.6% Labour 16.1% BXP 15.7%
With any sort of result close to that, it is obvious that the outcome in the seat depends on Labour voters’ willingness to vote tactically for the LibDems.
Labour won the seat in 1997, 2001 and 2005 when they winning general elections nationally. They're probably not going to give up there in favour of the LDs.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
You have to make the assumption that the vote share is now split four ways - and I fully recognise that other arguments and scenarios are available, as a I said below.
.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Exactly.
And, because the effective ceiling in that seat on the Labour vote (under Corbyn) is lower than the ceiling on the LibDem vote - despite Labour having a higher floor and a higher average (in previous electoral environments at least), it is both realistic and likely that the LibDem chance of winning the seat, whilst perhaps low, is nevertheless several orders of magnitude above Labour’s chances.
That is fanciful given the 2010 outcome in the seat and a likely Labour win in 2005 had the seat then existed. More generally, the LibDems are significantly less dominant in the West Country even compared with 2010. So much ground has been lost even in seats such as Taunton, Yeovil and Torbay where they had been the main challengers for several decades. In Somerset NE that has never been the case.
kjh here - we seem to have buggered the quotes (it is normally me who does that, but not guilty this time.
Can I suggest this is extremely academic and that we have probably done it to death.
I see Watson has waved goodbye to Northern Ireland with his pride in "Britain", not the UK......
Northern Irish unionists would generally consider themselves British, which is the word Watson uses.
The term "British Isles" is less used these days due to Irish sensitivities, and nationalists and those in the Republic of Ireland understandably wouldn't identify themselves as British. But, as a geographical fact, Ireland is one of the British Isles and those there have every bit as much right to call themselves British as those on the Isle of Wight (or not - up to them). Great Britain is simply the largest of the British Isles.
Legally and politically, the United Kingdom is an entity. Great Britain is England, Wales and Scotland, legally and politically.
Yes, but geographically the British Isles include the island of Ireland, and in fact those people who live there and want to be part of the United Kingdom use the term British to apply to themselves (as well as other terms).
Are you calling Titchmarsh a nobody? How. Dare. You.
It's in pretty common usage, you'll find. Not as common as it was due to the sensitivities over the Republic of Ireland, but a hell of a lot more than the PC term "Atlantic Archipelago".
And I also come back to my point that unionists in Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the term "British" as applying to them, so your suggestion that Watson was excluding them by using it is nonsense.
McDonald's use "British and Irish farmers" in their ads.
Because those from the Republic and Catholics in NI would object to being called British. NI Unionists don't.
....giving Jean-Claude enough time to stop laughing.
They can take out the backstop by making the transition period indefinite, which they MIGHT agree to. Maybe. Of course that's no say and full budget contributions, so I'd hardly have thought it is BoJo's first choice.
As opposed to the backstop, which is no say and no budget contributions. It would take a special kind of political genius to sell an indefinite transition as an improvement.
I think this is what he will try to do:
1. Negotiate a NI only backstop but (a) may or (b) may not try to have it ratified through Parliament.
If (a) and he succeeds, then no need for a GE. Note DUP will be totally against. But we do not know how some Labour MPs will vote. I would rate chances @ <10%.
However, he could go straight for (b) to the people in a GE even by ignoring Parliament completely.
The timing of the GE ? it has to be before 31st October. If he loses the GE, then he is out anyway. Otherwise he will be able to stick to his promise of 31st October.
I think the members of the party you left recently will have few qualms of throwing the DUP and indeed NI under the bus. This could be extended to supporters of other parties too. Scottish Tories will be alarmed, of course. But I am getting the feeling [ I would like your views on this ] that the Tory party of today increasingly identifies itself as an English Nationalist Party [ not like a Fascist party but an English version of the SNP ]. The more I see interviews of grassroot Tories in the News, I am reminded how different the make-up of the Tory party is from 40 years ago - certainly in the provincial towns and the shires.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Yes. There is a market for British, not Scottish, worth maybe 15% of the vote. The Conservatives wouldn't get any Westminster MPs and would be totally clobbered if they led any independence referendum from a unionist side.
That wasn't the market Ruth Davidson was playing in. Note past tense.
Has anyone seen her yet? How much longer can she keep up her disappearing act?
She's been making a few 'statements'. I'd guess her nose is a bit out of joint now the commentariat have found a new saviour of the Union.
Barnstorming is what Boris does. He's very good at the rabble rousing speech and his eloquence and choice of language excellent. Against a softly spoken rather diffident man like Corbyn there will only ever be one winner in terms of impact, charisma and eloquence.
Get down to the content and it's another story - all the last 24 hours has shown me are two things. First, Boris is going to be optimistic and positive (to be fair, all new PMs start that way) but that "can do" attitude does little to disguise a vacuum of new thinking.
The Johnson approach seems analogous to the man who gets his Sunday roast lunch by walking into the restaurant and shouting "I want a table" repeatedly until the maître d' caves in and gets him a table. That will work for the first few weeks but once everyone realises shouting is all there is the man will be ignored and goes home hungry. Boris will attempt to barnstorm the EU by promising this that and the other and shouting but if the EU continue to say no change to the WA Boris is going to come home empty handed and we'll see how much appetite there is beyond the Cabinet table for a No Deal.
Second, those who think Boris is a "Brexiteer" are wrong - he is a "Boriseer". His own personal survival and self aggrandisement are everything to him. If you thought getting May out of 10 DS was difficult, it'll be impossible to pry Boris out without an election defeat. Those who have sold their souls to Boris on the faustian pact he will keep them in jobs and win the Party a new mandate rely on him to deliver and cannot countenance him not doing so but I'm absolutely convinced he will sell the ERG down the river in an instant if it guarantees his survival. He would, pace Cameron, reach out to the LDs and even the SNP if he needed their votes to survive. He is a master of telling every audience exactly what they want to hear.
When Boris comes back from the EU claiming the backstop is dead and he has engineered a fantastical, transtional, invisible border in the Irish Sea which gives us the whip hand over the EU the ERG will lap it up.
a) What you not get? b) You are doing an HYFD here 'Would have won'? You just don't know that.
It isn’t a seat that Labour can win. Which isn’t to say Labour can’t come second - and they have.
But the probability of being able to win a seat and the probability of being in second place aren’t as closely correlated as you might think.
It is a seat the LibDems could win - as demonstrated by the balance of votes in both this year’s local and Euro elections. But it will depend on Labour voters seeing where the new land lies.
With respect , given that Labour was within 5,000 votes of JRM in 2010 - despite the Libdem Cleggmania boost - there is a strong likelihood that Labour would have won there in 2005.
That is a worthless statement given where we are now.
rent environment where both Tory and Labour are seeing half of their vote share disappear and minor parties are surging from single digit percentages up to 20+% of the vote.
I don't expect that the vote share will be split four ways - and will be surprised if the combined Tory and Labour share fails to reach 65% as happened in 2010 and 2015.Post the EU election I did suggest that the Brexit Party share would fall below 20% by the end of the Summer. Despite being ridiculed by a few on here, that appears to have already happened. The LibDem vote is likely to follow a similar trajectory as an election draws near.
Lets try this, if you are right on LD vote share around 15% or less, then you are right on north east somerset, and Lab will finish second there unless they have a landslide nationwide win, in which case they might challenge for it.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
Let’s take the recent YouGov poll, but tweak it slightly so that both Labour and LibDem are equal on 21%, with the Tories on 25%, BXP on 18% and Greens on 8%.
Feed the result into Flavible’s model, and their prediction for NE Somerset is:
Tory 30.7% LibDem 27.6% Labour 16.1% BXP 15.7%
With any sort of result close to that, it is obvious that the outcome in the seat depends on Labour voters’ willingness to vote tactically for the LibDems.
Labour won the seat in 1997, 2001 and 2005 when they winning general elections nationally. They're probably not going to give up there in favour of the LDs.
Chuka is still the new LD candidate though and the LDs need his personal vote to win the seat
Is he, Mr HY? I have not seen a Lib Dem source saying that. Only you. But then you know better than anybody else what everybody else thinks, says and does.
He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
He never supported it you muppet.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Vote = support. If he didn't support it but, but, but...he shouldn't have voted for it. Tosser (both of you).
I agree he shouldn't have backed it on MV3. I remained consistent in opposition to the vile backstop and I'm delighted its dead. RIP, no mourners. Good riddance.
Apart from a majority of the Northern Irish. But fuck them right?
Yes, fuck them.
On a sectarian basis one sectarian group wants to strip the fundamental human rights from another sectarian group. Fuck that it is never acceptable.
Nice try, but the backstop isn't a fundamentally sectarian issue outside the fact that it has its roots in an agreement explicitly designed to prevent sectarian violence. Deflect somewhere else.
The Northern Irish want a soft brexit. They support the backstop. They are being ignored by the Tory government who have made the backstop pointlessly totemic.
This morning's performance by Johnson was extraordinary.
He was so excited, fast talking, full of positive bonhomie that he could have been on E. And it was contagious on the Tory side. They were all so excited. All that was missing was the house music and smiley faces.
On the other side, the sourpuss gloomster realists were not impressed at all by this display.
The Tories will now go away high and happy. The let down when reality bites will be cruel
It's like that with all new leaders and new PMs in particular. Labour started off happy with Brown and the Conservatives worshipped Major yet it didn't end well for either of them.
This is the political honeymoon - the zenith of Boris's power and position. The Conservatives will believe "and with one bound we are free".
As for the call with Juncker this afternoon, I actually expect Boris to win some concessions which he will shout from the rooftops. What he won't be so willing to talk about will be the concessions he will make - additional financial contributions which will be masked under "other liabilities" perhaps.
Comments
The view from the cognescenti - moi - was that he came across as a shallow and entitled old ham who appeared not to have matured a great deal, either emotionally or intellectually, from his days at the Oxford Union decades ago.
But looking for the positives - since I do not want to be a total 'gloomster' - he was not drunk. Or if he was, he hid it well.
https://order-order.com/2019/07/25/streatham-lib-dems-disown-chuka/
Reading the Sun could bring on the migraine.
https://www.itv.com/news/2018-08-22/bbc-radio-presenter-sacked-over-plan-to-challenge-mp-jacob-rees-mogg-for-seat/
Could stand as an independent or better on behalf of the NHA.
NB Not to be confused with Mr Philip Hammond MP.
If you are wrong and it is a three-four way split nationally, the party most likely to beat the tories is the LDs.
May was more Brown than Boris
2005 was not a landslide - a mere 3% national lead - but Labour probably would have won here that year had the seat existed - given the 2010 result.
He was uncompromisingly against it then very relunctantly voted for it when he thought May might cancel Brexit if it didn't go through. May's gone now and so is her pathetic drivel of a deal. The backstop is dead - thankfully!
Berlusconi too is close to Boris in style as well
It was only a few years ago people were saying he was too liberal for Cameron's govt and being chastised by the right for advocating an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
JFK also got on very well with Macmillan who was PM at the time of his presidency, Macmillan like Boris went to Eton
I'm hoping Johnson's is a Fail Fast project. So far Brexit has been Fail Slow unfortunately.
Boris voted for it because he judged it to be in his best interest.
He couldn't care less about the backstop.
https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/mostly-true-berlusconi-under-my-governments-italy-reached-the-lowest-tax-to-gdp-ratio-in-the-last-20-years-39/
I will be going to my first ever party meeting soon (hopefully) and had been wondering how to make an impact. Problem solved.
So, he was compromisingly against it?
....giving Jean-Claude enough time to stop laughing.
Feed the result into Flavible’s model, and their prediction for NE Somerset is:
Tory 30.7%
LibDem 27.6%
Labour 16.1%
BXP 15.7%
With any sort of result close to that, it is obvious that the outcome in the seat depends on Labour voters’ willingness to vote tactically for the LibDems.
https://twitter.com/gouldyheraldsun/status/1154381414437183488?s=20
Barnstorming is what Boris does. He's very good at the rabble rousing speech and his eloquence and choice of language excellent. Against a softly spoken rather diffident man like Corbyn there will only ever be one winner in terms of impact, charisma and eloquence.
Get down to the content and it's another story - all the last 24 hours has shown me are two things. First, Boris is going to be optimistic and positive (to be fair, all new PMs start that way) but that "can do" attitude does little to disguise a vacuum of new thinking.
The Johnson approach seems analogous to the man who gets his Sunday roast lunch by walking into the restaurant and shouting "I want a table" repeatedly until the maître d' caves in and gets him a table. That will work for the first few weeks but once everyone realises shouting is all there is the man will be ignored and goes home hungry. Boris will attempt to barnstorm the EU by promising this that and the other and shouting but if the EU continue to say no change to the WA Boris is going to come home empty handed and we'll see how much appetite there is beyond the Cabinet table for a No Deal.
Second, those who think Boris is a "Brexiteer" are wrong - he is a "Boriseer". His own personal survival and self aggrandisement are everything to him. If you thought getting May out of 10 DS was difficult, it'll be impossible to pry Boris out without an election defeat. Those who have sold their souls to Boris on the faustian pact he will keep them in jobs and win the Party a new mandate rely on him to deliver and cannot countenance him not doing so but I'm absolutely convinced he will sell the ERG down the river in an instant if it guarantees his survival. He would, pace Cameron, reach out to the LDs and even the SNP if he needed their votes to survive. He is a master of telling every audience exactly what they want to hear.
On a sectarian basis one sectarian group wants to strip the fundamental human rights from another sectarian group. Fuck that it is never acceptable.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/British-Isles-Natural-Alan-Titchmarsh/dp/0563521627/ref=sr_1_12?keywords=british+isles&qid=1564061715&s=gateway&sr=8-12
Are you calling Titchmarsh a nobody? How. Dare. You.
It's in pretty common usage, you'll find. Not as common as it was due to the sensitivities over the Republic of Ireland, but a hell of a lot more than the PC term "Atlantic Archipelago".
And I also come back to my point that unionists in Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the term "British" as applying to them, so your suggestion that Watson was excluding them by using it is nonsense.
Except that he’s aiming for another five years’ mandate before he confronts Europe, I think.
He was so excited, fast talking, full of positive bonhomie that he could have been on E. And it was contagious on the Tory side. They were all so excited. All that was missing was the house music and smiley faces.
On the other side, the sourpuss gloomster realists were not impressed at all by this display.
The Tories will now go away high and happy. The let down when reality bites will be cruel
LEAVE 44%
https://order-order.com/2019/07/25/boris-destroys-corbyn-seven-minutes/
1. Negotiate a NI only backstop but (a) may or (b) may not try to have it ratified through Parliament.
If (a) and he succeeds, then no need for a GE. Note DUP will be totally against. But we do not know how some Labour MPs will vote. I would rate chances @ <10%.
However, he could go straight for (b) to the people in a GE even by ignoring Parliament completely.
The timing of the GE ? it has to be before 31st October. If he loses the GE, then he is out anyway. Otherwise he will be able to stick to his promise of 31st October.
I think the members of the party you left recently will have few qualms of throwing the DUP and indeed NI under the bus. This could be extended to supporters of other parties too. Scottish Tories will be alarmed, of course. But I am getting the feeling [ I would like your views on this ] that the Tory party of today increasingly identifies itself as an English Nationalist Party [ not like a Fascist party but an English version of the SNP ]. The more I see interviews of grassroot Tories in the News, I am reminded how different the make-up of the Tory party is from 40 years ago - certainly in the provincial towns and the shires.
https://twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/1154075480737353729
It's understandable that Ruth would want to avoid the Scottish media limelight considering the hard time they invariably give her.
The Northern Irish want a soft brexit. They support the backstop. They are being ignored by the Tory government who have made the backstop pointlessly totemic.
This is the political honeymoon - the zenith of Boris's power and position. The Conservatives will believe "and with one bound we are free".
As for the call with Juncker this afternoon, I actually expect Boris to win some concessions which he will shout from the rooftops. What he won't be so willing to talk about will be the concessions he will make - additional financial contributions which will be masked under "other liabilities" perhaps.
He just needed to believe...
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1154383752086413312