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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LA

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    Do you ever consider that Corbyn today is vastly more toxic than in 2017 now he is known
    To be honest , I am not persuaded of that. He appeared very toxic indeed in early 2017 at the time of Labour's defeat at the Copeland by election. The focus on Brexit has certainly not helped him , but I would expect that to change - again - during a GE campaign.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Prime Ministers since 1867 who won elections to become PM for the first time:

    Gladstone
    Macdonald
    Attlee
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Blair
    Cameron

    And Prime Ministers who did not win elections but were appointed internally one way or another:

    Disraeli
    Salisbury
    Rosebery
    Balfour
    Campbell-Bannerman*
    Asquith
    Lloyd George*
    Bonar Law*
    Baldwin
    Chamberlain
    Churchill
    Eden*
    Macmillan*
    Home
    Callaghan
    Major*
    Brown
    May
    The next one.

    I think this idea of a democratic mandate is somewhat over-egged. Bear in mind the ones with asterisks by their name went on to win the following elections outright (some by large majorities) and many others won elections at other times.
    Huh, as many as that? I stand corrected!
    Macdonald and Cameron did not strictly win elections to become PM. In 1924 Macdonald was well short of leading the largest party with just 191 seats. He took office in a minority sustained by Asquith's Liberals who had 158 seats. Together they were able to comfortably outvote Baldwin's 258 Tories.
    Cameron, of course, only took office as a result of reaching a Coalition Agreement with Clegg's LibDems in 2010.
    True. But they still became PM as a direct result of a general election.

    The ones in the other list did not.

    That said maybe in Macdonald's case the word 'won' was misused, given he was second.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    The language is strange, referring to the anti terrorist laws seems to take it to a different level.
    I don't think it does, merely the name of their unit has anti-terrorism in it.

    @AlastairMeeks will be happy they explicitly mentioned publication of secret materials may also be a criminal matter.
    Who will do the investigation in the US I wonder.

    Frankly, they've taken their time. The email and other social media accounts of all the possible suspects i.e. everyone who received or who had access to the emails sent by the Ambassador, whether here or in the US, should have been seized and preserved long before now, as well as all other forms of communication and other records.

    They've allowed whoever was involved time to try and delete evidence. Now it is very hard to do this but it does mean that the investigation takes longer than it might otherwise.

    An inquiry should have been started within hours of the leak.
    Do you think would is more likely than should ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    Do you ever consider that Corbyn today is vastly more toxic than in 2017 now he is known
    And the LDs refreshingly palatable after being viewed as sour in 2017?
    Indeed
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    stodge said:


    I would never vote for Corbyn under any circumstances

    If 35% vote Lib Dem it would be the end of Boris, Corbyn, Farage and Brexit.

    It would be the return of normality and sanity.

    It is not impossible but unlikely at present.

    Who knows when Boris gets in if tonights car crash interview is an example of how he will govern
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    Roger said:

    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.

    Come back, Theresa! All is forgiven!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
    Brown was nominated by every Labour MP.
    Nope, it was 313 Labour MPs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
    Brown was nominated by every Labour MP.
    Nope, it was 313 Labour MPs.
    My understanding is that when Macdonnell withdrew he and his supporters nominated Brown.

    If I'm wrong, can you please post a link? Thanks.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    The language is strange, referring to the anti terrorist laws seems to take it to a different level.
    I don't think it does, merely the name of their unit has anti-terrorism in it.

    @AlastairMeeks will be happy they explicitly mentioned publication of secret materials may also be a criminal matter.
    Who will do the investigation in the US I wonder.

    Frankly, they've taken their time. The email and other social media accounts of all the possible suspects i.e. everyone who received or who had access to the emails sent by the Ambassador, whether here or in the US, should have been seized and preserved long before now, as well as all other forms of communication and other records.

    They've allowed whoever was involved time to try and delete evidence. Now it is very hard to do this but it does mean that the investigation takes longer than it might otherwise.

    An inquiry should have been started within hours of the leak.
    OT. Cyclefree. I don't know whether you picked up the program on the rise and fall of the Royal Bank of Scotland. It was both compelling and extraordinary and well worth watching. Late night BBC 2 a few nights ago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    It is disturbing to reflect that I am having severe problems with my legs tonight as a result of climbing lots of spiral staircases today...

    ..and that I am a year younger than Roger Federer.

    The man is just extraordinary.

    Hope your legs get better - I did a "little" walking on the Isle of Skye at the weekend - unfortunately we went by plane from London to Inverness and then hire-car. On the way back I mulled getting the train from Kyle to Inverness, but the weather was a little wet and murky so with a heavy heart I decided to leave it for a better opportunity.

    Next time, Kyle Line! Next time!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,856



    This interview is a total car crash for Boris

    I've been listening to the tone more than the content. Oddly, I don't agree with the consensus. Johnson succeeds in sounding more measured than Andrew Neil, who sounds arrogant and frustrated. That may be because I've never liked Neil but I suspect that many viewers may agree. Neil appeals to people like PBers who are seriously interested in politics.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Roger said:

    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.

    I have long been loyal to TM. She did her best, is committed to public service, and I do not think history will be as unkind to her as many think
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree cont.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bmbhzb

    'The Bank that almost broke Britain'
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,210
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    A lot of us are a lot wiser about Corbyn and his gang than we were in 2017. I think anyone expecting Corbyn to repeat his 2017 performance is going to be in for a surprise.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
    Brown was nominated by every Labour MP.
    Nope, it was 313 Labour MPs.
    My understanding is that when Macdonnell withdrew he and his supporters nominated Brown.

    If I'm wrong, can you please post a link? Thanks.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#Nominations_and_result
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    A lot of us are a lot wiser about Corbyn and his gang than we were in 2017. I think anyone expecting Corbyn to repeat his 2017 performance is going to be in for a surprise.
    Did you vote Labour in 2017?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
    Brown was nominated by every Labour MP.
    Nope, it was 313 Labour MPs.
    My understanding is that when Macdonnell withdrew he and his supporters nominated Brown.

    If I'm wrong, can you please post a link? Thanks.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#Nominations_and_result
    Thanks. Useful.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Roger said:

    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.

    I have long been loyal to TM. She did her best, is committed to public service, and I do not think history will be as unkind to her as many think
    Are you sure we can't keep her? There must be a get out clause in the small print somewhere. Have you read it? We all know Boris hasn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    It is disturbing to reflect that I am having severe problems with my legs tonight as a result of climbing lots of spiral staircases today...

    ..and that I am a year younger than Roger Federer.

    The man is just extraordinary.

    Hope your legs get better - I did a "little" walking on the Isle of Skye at the weekend - unfortunately we went by plane from London to Inverness and then hire-car. On the way back I mulled getting the train from Kyle to Inverness, but the weather was a little wet and murky so with a heavy heart I decided to leave it for a better opportunity.

    Next time, Kyle Line! Next time!
    One of the great train journeys - in the right weather!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,125
    ydoethur said:

    It is disturbing to reflect that I am having severe problems with my legs tonight as a result of climbing lots of spiral staircases today...

    ..and that I am a year younger than Roger Federer.

    The man is just extraordinary.

    Extraordinary he is.
    But it doesn't just happen.
    He actually does lots of exercise.
    Lots.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,279


    It is not impossible but unlikely at present.

    Who knows when Boris gets in if tonights car crash interview is an example of how he will govern

    The point is those who stay loyal to Boris out of fear of Corbyn have an option. Those who stay with Corbyn out of fear of Johnson have an option. The mutual antipathy is all that keeps the Conservative and Labour parties going - break that and both will fall.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    I'd like to but I was blocked a while back for rudely mentioning the House of Saud and its generosity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
    Auto correct, thank you
    Tbf the nutters would probably like to extend the UK fishing limit to the Adriatic and possibly the Danube.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited July 2019
    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    stodge said:


    It is not impossible but unlikely at present.

    Who knows when Boris gets in if tonights car crash interview is an example of how he will govern

    The point is those who stay loyal to Boris out of fear of Corbyn have an option. Those who stay with Corbyn out of fear of Johnson have an option. The mutual antipathy is all that keeps the Conservative and Labour parties going - break that and both will fall.

    The Conservative Party is many to be a conservative, pro nation state party, the Labour Party is supposed to be a socialist party, if you are a diehard, globalist liberal you should have joined the LDs in the first place and if you finally do so the better for all concerned
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    Surprising how little commentary there is on Hunt's performance, or is it just not being pasted here? :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead

    Will Boris have a majority to prorogue Parliament? It seems unlikely if Hammond and 30 other Conservative MPs defy their leader and oppose any prorogation. If the Commons then votes down a No Deal there will be a clear collision course between parliament and government.

    Parliament has already voted to invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU, if the PM refuses to extend Article 50 and prorogues and suspends Parliament to finally deliver the Brexit voters voted for on October 31st, Parliament cannot do anything to stop it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051

    Roger said:

    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.

    I have long been loyal to TM. She did her best, is committed to public service, and I do not think history will be as unkind to her as many think
    At the end I felt sorry for her, which is never a good place for a PM to be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
    Auto correct, thank you
    Tbf the nutters would probably like to extend the UK fishing limit to the Adriatic and possibly the Danube.
    I would have thought any fish in the Danube would be green and shine in the dark.
  • RobD said:

    Surprising how little commentary there is on Hunt's performance, or is it just not being pasted here? :p

    He was awesome.

    #HasToBeHunt

    Nota bene: I didn’t watch it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,304
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead

    Will Boris have a majority to prorogue Parliament? It seems unlikely if Hammond and 30 other Conservative MPs defy their leader and oppose any prorogation. If the Commons then votes down a No Deal there will be a clear collision course between parliament and government.

    Parliament has already voted to invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU, if the PM refuses to extend Article 50 and prorogues and suspends Parliament to finally deliver the Brexit voters voted for on October 31st, Parliament cannot do anything to stop it
    In your dreams.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,304

    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
    Don't you mean the Occupied Six Counties? *Troll Face*
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,599
    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage as they did in the European Parliament elections
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501

    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
    Don't you mean the Occupied Six Counties? *Troll Face*
    Actually, it's:
    :trollface:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,599
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead

    Will Boris have a majority to prorogue Parliament? It seems unlikely if Hammond and 30 other Conservative MPs defy their leader and oppose any prorogation. If the Commons then votes down a No Deal there will be a clear collision course between parliament and government.

    Parliament has already voted to invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU, if the PM refuses to extend Article 50 and prorogues and suspends Parliament to finally deliver the Brexit voters voted for on October 31st, Parliament cannot do anything to stop it
    The PM cannot suspend parliament. He would have to ask the Queen and throw her into the middle of a political storm. I suppose anything is possible at the moment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage
    Presumably you'll be one of the rump Tory Remainers in this scenario?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Who says they haven't done so already?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
    Don't you mean the Occupied Six Counties? *Troll Face*
    Actually, it's:
    :trollface:
    It takes a certain level of skull to use emojis properly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    edited July 2019

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
    Apparently anything will help Sturgeon win an independence referendum, including the sun rising every morning so just ignore what the SNP whinge about and get on with it!
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    On topic. I’ll go along with anyone saying euro’s and GE are different elections, i suggest Euro traditionally little ones get big, the reason to some extent it’s safe anti establishment protest vote day but squeezed at GE, because GE carries more fear after GE campaign voters know what they don’t want in power and need to vote against.

    fair play to all pollsters who call any election closest, but to suggest smaller ones won’t get squeezed on GE day isn’t a narrative convinces me.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,210
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    A lot of us are a lot wiser about Corbyn and his gang than we were in 2017. I think anyone expecting Corbyn to repeat his 2017 performance is going to be in for a surprise.
    Did you vote Labour in 2017?
    No, I left the party in 2016 and for the first time in my life I didn't vote. Having been involved for years though I do know a good number of people who did vote for Corbyn in 2017 who won't be doing so next time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage
    Presumably you'll be one of the rump Tory Remainers in this scenario?
    Probably but it would only last a decade or do before the Brexit Party took it over, much as the Progressive Conservatives in Canada only lasted a decade after being trounced in 1993 before being taken over by the successor of the populist conservative Reform Party, the Alliance with a few wets joining the Liberals
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    Personally, I think it's an excellent idea. It means there is no need for the backstop. It means the UK has time for a proper discussion about what relationship it wants with the EU.

    I'd be all in favour.
    A decade as a 'vassal state'? That would be the ideal context for the UK to be dissolved. It would help the SNP win an independence referendum and politically weaken the unionists in Northern Ireland.
    Don't you mean the Occupied Six Counties? *Troll Face*
    Actually, it's:
    :trollface:
    It takes a certain level of skull to use emojis properly.
    :innocent:
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Theresa May being interviewed. She's very nice. Genuinely. What a shame she's going to be replaced by a complete shit.

    I have long been loyal to TM. She did her best, is committed to public service, and I do not think history will be as unkind to her as many think
    At the end I felt sorry for her, which is never a good place for a PM to be.
    True. Although better than everyone thinking that you are an utter fucking clown, which will be the case with Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead

    Will Boris have a majority to prorogue Parliament? It seems unlikely if Hammond and 30 other Conservative MPs defy their leader and oppose any prorogation. If the Commons then votes down a No Deal there will be a clear collision course between parliament and government.

    Parliament has already voted to invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU, if the PM refuses to extend Article 50 and prorogues and suspends Parliament to finally deliver the Brexit voters voted for on October 31st, Parliament cannot do anything to stop it
    The PM cannot suspend parliament. He would have to ask the Queen and throw her into the middle of a political storm. I suppose anything is possible at the moment.
    I suspect the Queen would insist on a general election in November but that would be too late to stop Brexit on October 31st
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage as they did in the European Parliament elections
    You live in your own world - keep saying it if it helps you
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    Charles said:
    So you're TELLING ME there's a chance!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AALPRDLmM_A
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 664
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage as they did in the European Parliament elections
    PB's Lord Haw Haw does it again.

    To misquote the Showa Emperor "The situation in the Brexit war has changed, not necessarily to the Conservatives' advantage..."

    Although you continue to spout rubbish on an industrial scale, the truth doesn't care. Boris is no Churchill, more Harley, and probably to the same result: the end of Tory rule for 50 years.

    Good.

    After it happens, you can send written apologies to the rest of us for wasting our time with absurd propaganda.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    stodge said:


    It is not impossible but unlikely at present.

    Who knows when Boris gets in if tonights car crash interview is an example of how he will govern

    The point is those who stay loyal to Boris out of fear of Corbyn have an option. Those who stay with Corbyn out of fear of Johnson have an option. The mutual antipathy is all that keeps the Conservative and Labour parties going - break that and both will fall.

    In a GE campaign Labour will make some effort to remind voters that the LibDems cannot be trusted to help keep the Tories in office. 'The Tories' Little Helpers' still has potency as a label - particularly as both Swinson and Davey were members of the Tory -led Coalition.
  • Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What out of Boris' statement 'it would be insane to have another phoney deadline' do you not understand?
    You clearly understand the significance of the word 'now' which is why you omitted it.
    What difference does that make? May set a phoney deadline and did not deliver it, Boris will now deliver on October 31st Deal or No Deal.

    If he does not of course the Tory Party will effectively be dead bar a few rump Tory Remainers and the Brexit Party will become the largest party in the country as Tory and Labour Leavers defect an masse to Farage as they did in the European Parliament elections
    PB's Lord Haw Haw does it again.

    To misquote the Showa Emperor "The situation in the Brexit war has changed, not necessarily to the Conservatives' advantage..."

    Although you continue to spout rubbish on an industrial scale, the truth doesn't care. Boris is no Churchill, more Harley, and probably to the same result: the end of Tory rule for 50 years.

    Good.

    After it happens, you can send written apologies to the rest of us for wasting our time with absurd propaganda.
    Boris Johnson is a modern day Churchill.

    Randolph Churchill.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,529
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    A lot of us are a lot wiser about Corbyn and his gang than we were in 2017. I think anyone expecting Corbyn to repeat his 2017 performance is going to be in for a surprise.
    Did you vote Labour in 2017?
    I did, being the CLP Secretary at the time. I was willing to give Corbyn the benefit of the doubt at that point. I have this year resigned from the party and consider myself unlikely to vote Labour in the upcoming GE.

    It is not so much a case of being wiser about Corbyn and his gang than I was in 2017, it's more a case that the possibility that I was wrong has been finally extinguished.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240



    This interview is a total car crash for Boris

    I've been listening to the tone more than the content. Oddly, I don't agree with the consensus. Johnson succeeds in sounding more measured than Andrew Neil, who sounds arrogant and frustrated. That may be because I've never liked Neil but I suspect that many viewers may agree. Neil appeals to people like PBers who are seriously interested in politics.
    I think so too. If you believe in Brexit you will likely buy Johnson's message.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Scott_P said:
    It is imperative the culprits are found and receive consequences to stop futher leaks

    Indeed this could have a sobering effect on political leaks generally
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057

    Scott_P said:
    It is imperative the culprits are found and receive consequences to stop futher leaks

    Indeed this could have a sobering effect on political leaks generally
    Too bad the 2016 leak wasn't taken seriously. This could have been avoided.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    So all in all, somebody has been a very naughty boy?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    Scott_P said:
    It’s a sign people are realising he’s a shit.
  • tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240
    I suspect on topic that self declared Green voters are substantially young people in cities who haven't voted before. Some polling companies believe them when they say they will vote next time; others don't.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is imperative the culprits are found and receive consequences to stop futher leaks

    Indeed this could have a sobering effect on political leaks generally
    Too bad the 2016 leak wasn't taken seriously. This could have been avoided.
    Probably because of the requirement that the documents have the potential to damage international relations. The 2016 leak didn't do that, and so likely didn't warrant a criminal investigation.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    A lot of us are a lot wiser about Corbyn and his gang than we were in 2017. I think anyone expecting Corbyn to repeat his 2017 performance is going to be in for a surprise.
    Did you vote Labour in 2017?
    No, I left the party in 2016 and for the first time in my life I didn't vote. Having been involved for years though I do know a good number of people who did vote for Corbyn in 2017 who won't be doing so next time.
    That implies that you were sufficiently alienated in 2017 not to vote Labour in a way that was not typical at the time - though Corbyn certainly cost Labour many white working class votes at that election. I have not been a party member since the end of 1996 - though I did vote Labour in 2017 despite not being a Corbynite. As already stated, I am firmly committed to spoiling my Ballot Paper at the next GE - but for reasons totally unconnected with Corbyn.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is imperative the culprits are found and receive consequences to stop futher leaks

    Indeed this could have a sobering effect on political leaks generally
    Too bad the 2016 leak wasn't taken seriously. This could have been avoided.
    Probably because of the requirement that the documents have the potential to damage international relations. The 2016 leak didn't do that, and so likely didn't warrant a criminal investigation.
    But it should have been investigated internally and dealt with accordingly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
    Auto correct, thank you
    Tbf the nutters would probably like to extend the UK fishing limit to the Adriatic and possibly the Danube.
    I would have thought any fish in the Danube would be green and shine in the dark.
    That's the way Gollu..er..Francois likes 'em.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Well Isobel Oakeshott is normally fairly relaxed about shopping her sources, so the threats are scarcely necessary. She’s a fake journalist who is a disgrace to the profession.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    That would be a shame. Oakeshott being locked up for perverting the course of justice would be quite funny.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    Can't plod just fit Corbyn up. So many birds just the one stone!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
    Auto correct, thank you
    Tbf the nutters would probably like to extend the UK fishing limit to the Adriatic and possibly the Danube.
    I would have thought any fish in the Danube would be green and shine in the dark.
    That's the way Gollu..er..Francois likes 'em.
    Mr Divvie, that is a grossly unfair remark. Gollum had some redeeming features.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited July 2019
    Front page of tomorrow's Mirror.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    "If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure."

    - Boris, 2013.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    ydoethur said:

    So all in all, somebody has been a very naughty boy?
    Or girl. Or self identifying as neither. Or hermaphrodite.

    My moneys on they will never catch them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    My advice to the EU is to accept a ten year deadline on the backstop and then poison pill every new agreement with the Backstop clause. Agreement on satellite communications? Irish Backstop must by included. It comes to the same thing in the end, but it gets the deal over the line.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I've just had the grave misfortune to watch the Andrew Neil/Boris Johnston interview.

    My very low expectations of Boris were fully and completely unjustified. He really is worse than useless.

    We must only hope that the grown ups lock him in the Downing Street Flat broom cupboard to be wheeled out only at PMQ's, his weekly audience with the Queen and for an comedy turn at the Royal Variety Performance, where at least her majesty will be able to openly laugh at Boris instead of guffawing discreetly behind a hanky on regular Wednesday evenings at Buckingham Palace.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    ydoethur said:

    So all in all, somebody has been a very naughty boy?
    Not a girl then !!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Scott_P said:
    Those negotiations are going to go so well...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 36,501
    JackW said:

    I've just had the grave misfortune to watch the Andrew Neil/Boris Johnston interview.

    Are you OK? :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is imperative the culprits are found and receive consequences to stop futher leaks

    Indeed this could have a sobering effect on political leaks generally
    Too bad the 2016 leak wasn't taken seriously. This could have been avoided.
    Probably because of the requirement that the documents have the potential to damage international relations. The 2016 leak didn't do that, and so likely didn't warrant a criminal investigation.
    But it should have been investigated internally and dealt with accordingly.
    Who says it wasn't. I doubt all government internal enquiries are publicised.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    So all in all, somebody has been a very naughty boy?
    Not a girl then !!!!!
    Zephyr went through the whorel list of genders.

    But the Diplomatic Service is still quite sexist. I'm betting it's a man.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Front page of tomorrow's Mirror.


    Everything that is bad about the British press in one story. Like they are trying to say something without actually saying it. Sue them. Character assassination.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    That would be a shame. Oakeshott being locked up for perverting the course of justice would be quite funny.
    Funny? Not really. A journalist can and should go to jail to protect her sources. However, the odious Oakeshott has no such honour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited July 2019
    FF43 said:

    I suspect on topic that self declared Green voters are substantially young people in cities who haven't voted before. Some polling companies believe them when they say they will vote next time; others don't.


    If that was the explanation and Yougov had the greens say at 3 it would transpose to (Sub 6)
    26 Con
    21 Lab
    22 Brex
    20 LD

    So the Lab figure is still wildly out from Survation whereas the rest are closish
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    _Anazina_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    That would be a shame. Oakeshott being locked up for perverting the course of justice would be quite funny.
    Funny? Not really. A journalist can and should go to jail to protect her sources. However, the odious Oakeshott has no such honour.
    Oakeshott is no more a journalist than I am the King of Saudi Arabia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    ydoethur said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    That would be a shame. Oakeshott being locked up for perverting the course of justice would be quite funny.
    Funny? Not really. A journalist can and should go to jail to protect her sources. However, the odious Oakeshott has no such honour.
    Oakeshott is no more a journalist than I am the King of Saudi Arabia.
    You might, in theory, become king of SA, vanishingly improbable though that might be.
    It would, on the other hand, simply be impossible for Oakeshott to become a journalist
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    I've just had the grave misfortune to watch the Andrew Neil/Boris Johnston interview.

    Are you OK? :)
    Reminiscent of that sinking feeling when Mrs JackW says she's only going to London for lunch with friends !! .... :anguished:
  • ydoethur said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have the police considered asking Isabel Oakeshott who the leaker is?

    Dangerous precedent. That's not to say that they shouldn't do it, it's just that if they do it once, they'll probably have to do it again in the future.
    Given past form Oakeshott will shop the source to save her own skin.
    That would be a shame. Oakeshott being locked up for perverting the course of justice would be quite funny.
    Funny? Not really. A journalist can and should go to jail to protect her sources. However, the odious Oakeshott has no such honour.
    Oakeshott is no more a journalist than I am the King of Saudi Arabia.
    How many (concurrent) wives do you have?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    I suspect on topic that self declared Green voters are substantially young people in cities who haven't voted before. Some polling companies believe them when they say they will vote next time; others don't.


    If that was the explanation and Yougov had the greens say at 3 it would transpose to (Sub 6)
    26 Con
    21 Lab
    22 Brex
    20 LD

    So the Lab figure is still wildly out from Survation whereas the rest are closish
    Fair point. But it does look like a modelling difference rather than a sampling one. Survation isn't picking up a trend from Labour to Green that other polling companies are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    ...chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure."

    - Boris, 2013.

    A remarkable piece of self-analysis by him.

    Sadly never acted on.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    I suspect on topic that self declared Green voters are substantially young people in cities who haven't voted before. Some polling companies believe them when they say they will vote next time; others don't.


    If that was the explanation and Yougov had the greens say at 3 it would transpose to (Sub 6)
    26 Con
    21 Lab
    22 Brex
    20 LD

    So the Lab figure is still wildly out from Survation whereas the rest are closish
    I don't believe it to be at all likely that a 6% drop in the Green vote would boost the Tories by 2% and Labour by just 1%!
    It is not just Survation either - none of Opinium, Comres, & BMG have Labour lower than 25%.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Zephyr said:

    Front page of tomorrow's Mirror.


    Everything that is bad about the British press in one story. Like they are trying to say something without actually saying it. Sue them. Character assassination.
    A mate of yours could be arrested tomorrow for something you would never guess they’d been up to. How guilty are you? How guilty will clients, colleagues, neighbours, nut jobs out there who loathe that behaviour, family members view you?

    Take the mirror to the cleaners, it’s the only way they’ll learn.

    Actually this news story is a bit awkward for one of Trumps cabinet?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Just caught up with Boris vs Neill.

    Can we give a knighthood urgently to the Scotsman.

    Boris has been exposed as the complete disaster and albatross he will be for the Tories.

    Good luck Blues! You'll need it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    FF43 said:



    This interview is a total car crash for Boris

    I've been listening to the tone more than the content. Oddly, I don't agree with the consensus. Johnson succeeds in sounding more measured than Andrew Neil, who sounds arrogant and frustrated. That may be because I've never liked Neil but I suspect that many viewers may agree. Neil appeals to people like PBers who are seriously interested in politics.
    I think so too. If you believe in Brexit you will likely buy Johnson's message.
    Yes. Johnson was full of wind but if they haven't picked that up by now I doubt that interview changed anything. Neil was too hectoring. I'd have preferred him to ask why he lied on the side of bus and repeat the question every couple of minutes. Then choose another lie and do the same. He puffs up like an ugly fish when he lies.
This discussion has been closed.