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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens
If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017.
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Ditto Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1149722616011341824
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48942411
Then again, maybe that's what's needed to break the logjam.
NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:
LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)
(changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)
The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
If Jo Swinson becomes Lib Dem leader, I suspect (based on hints I've picked up) that we will see a lot more LD/Green co-operation.
Con will have to deliver Brexit before they get much of that 20% back.
Green 25 odd
PC around 10
LD well north of 200 (poss Inc 2/3 Scottish)
poss SNP 10 (mainly SNP / Con)??
Inds a few
contested, the rest
I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
They'd make a reasonable case in a dozen places where they have a decent local authority base. And why have more than one per region necessarily? Even one gain is doubling representation in Commons.
However I still think there is also a lingering thought , that when push comes to shuff the Lib Dems would back the Tories.
As they have on the City council of York.and the previous coalition government.
Green results GE2017:
Edinburgh North and Leith: 3%, 5th place (SNP hold)
Falkirk: 2%, 5th place (SNP hold)
Glasgow North: 10%, 4th place (SNP hold)
https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/analysis-why-are-the-greens-standing-so-few-candidates-at-the-election-1-4442415
A few years ago, you got people saying they'd vote Green as the only "real" left wing choice. But they went to Labour under Corbyn largely,
In fact it is not entirely beyond dispute as to who the main parties are.
Most of these seats - such as Bristol West, say - are likely to be seats previously held by the Lib Dems, so it would be a real concession from the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside in them in favour of the Greens, and I'd argue worth the quid pro quo of standing aside in return in other seats where the Lib Dems have any chance of being competitive.
If this did happen then one of the main problems the Greens would face is that many of these seats have local MPs who appeal to Green-inclined voters to a greater extent than your average Labour MP. But, well, one problem at a time.
I can't say that I would never jump, but for the moment I still believe that the Labour Party is the best fit for me.
In return the Greens would stand aside in the 50 to 100 seats where the LDs were in second place behind the Conservatives.
But I think, ultimately, a coalition will be hard to put together.
There are many politicians, a handful of trade-unionists and at least one human-rights lawyer who seem worthy of a bit of a look.
https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21
Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
Polling companies really need to use language well otherwise there (sic) results are meaningless.
Looking at the (rather risible) list of Green "target" seats, there are some I'm sure the LDs would want to "keep" eg. Eastleigh, but there are others (IOW, Buckingham, Totnes, Folkestone, Hereford) where they might give the Greens a free run for, say, two GEs, or until FPTP is replaced, whichever is the sooner...
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/green
I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
Now apparently such a scenario is 'paging HYUFD'
I would only support Boris if he stops a damaging no deal and moves onto a socially responsible, business friendly, pro climate change policy base
'Another event dubbed a "Battle of the Sexes" took place during the 1998 Australian Open between Karsten Braasch and the Williams sisters. Venus and Serena Williams had claimed that they could beat any male player ranked outside the world's top 200, so Braasch, then ranked 203rd, challenged them both. Braasch was described by one journalist as "a man whose training regime centered around a pack of cigarettes and more than a couple of bottles of ice cold lager". The matches took place on court number 12 in Melbourne Park,[58] after Braasch had finished a round of golf and two shandies. He first took on Serena and after leading 5–0, beat her 6–1. Venus then walked on court and again Braasch was victorious, this time winning 6–2. Braasch said afterwards, "500 and above, no chance". He added that he had played like someone ranked 600th in order to keep the game "fun" and that the big difference was that men can chase down shots much easier and put spin on the ball that female players can't handle. The Williams sisters adjusted their claim to beating men outside the top 350.'
You'd only need one point, and you wouldn't have to have the two shandies beforehand.
Isle of Wight
Buckingham (though I think that's the Speaker's seat)
Bristol West
Sheffield Central
Skipton & Ripon
North Herefordshire
North East Hertfordshire
Since the referendum we have been told repeatedly that it could take many years to get the details of a new free trade agreement. We have also been told that we are years away from alternative arrangements being ready for NI.
A standstill agreement for a decade will give plenty of time to negotiate a new agreement. That is longer than CETA took to negotiate IIRC.
As I understand it Boris is effectively saying let's have a 10 year transition rather than a 2 year one. Frankly that actually seems far more realistic than alternatives proposed so far. After the last few years I have no confidence much could be achieved in May's 2 year transition.
Surreal
With the LDs polling 1.2% and the Greens 0.8% in East Ham, I imagine there'll be plenty of argument over who fights this seat and tries to undo Stephen Timms and his wafer thin 40,000 majority. Perhaps the argument is losing one deposit is cheaper than losing two.
YouGov shows the LDs leading in London of course so we may need to consider if Shaun Bailey is prepared to stand aside in favour of Siobhan Benita.
Survation looks an outlier but the fieldwork was done in the midst of the Darroch furore so perhaps it has boosted Labour.
It's also possible that you gain some voters who would otherwise see Labour as the best anti-Tory vote, if by presenting a united front they appear a more credible option for keeping the Tories out.
Johnson, could and still might crash the country and all because as a cbild he wanted to be 'king of the world'. At least people like Mark Francois have a belief, an ideology, however mad they appear.
If Johnson does sell out once he has the prize that is almost more amoral than following through with no deal. Alan B'Stard, breathes and lives with a woman called Carrie.
As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead