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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,693
    Is Labour's policy for a binding or advisory referendum?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,987
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Absolute total fucking c***s have brought us to this. All the "I never voted for this type of Brexit, actually I'm in favour of a soft/EFTA/EEA/etc" bollocks and here we are.
    Can one of the folk 'in the know' here ;point me in the direction of the British Government's equivalent document?
    Or am I asking a silly question?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,615

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Absolute total fucking c***s have brought us to this. All the "I never voted for this type of Brexit, actually I'm in favour of a soft/EFTA/EEA/etc" bollocks and here we are.
    Can one of the folk 'in the know' here ;point me in the direction of the British Government's equivalent document?
    Or am I asking a silly question?
    Has the UK prepared acres of paper is indeed a "silly question"

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    The quiet man is turning up the volume. Looking forward to his first speech from the back benches.

    Me too. I think Hammond is going to be a key player in the next act of this drama.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,615
    Seems "diplomatic":

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1148608928235884545

    We're not in a competition to see who can be most childish.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,485

    That sounds like an absolute win. Can we palm him off on the dupes?
    If it means Stephen leaves the country permanently, I think we should take him at his word and accept his asylum application. In fact I daresay if someone organised a crowd funding whip-round we could pay for his one way fare within seconds at no cost to the taxpayer.

    As an added bonus, the notion of Boris making Nigel our Ambassador to Washington, as suggested on last night's Newsnight would remove another dangerous clown from our shores.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    edited July 2019
    All the Labour Brexiteers are either standing down or have lost the whip at the next GE.

    Corbyn knows the game is up so has capitulated to the 2nd reffers in order he can implement the rest of his socialist vision.

    Edit: At the same time he's managed to do it in as leave sounding way as possible, obviously keen that all "true" remainers should stick Lib Dem/Green.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    edited July 2019
    Perhaps we can make Fox's paramour US Ambassador ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Karan Singh Dogra is unhappy. “India bowled well and stopped scores,” he says.
    “It is not fair that India should score 148 in 20 overs. Same overs same runs should be applied. Play the game with the spirit of game.”

    Clearly that would be the most sporting outcome, and it strikes me that it would be immeasurably better for India to bat 50 overs tomorrow than 20 overs today. However, there will I’m sure be the dreaded Commercial Considerations to take into account."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/jul/09/india-v-new-zealand-cricket-world-cup-2019-semi-final-live
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431
    IanB2 said:

    That latter is their only chance, and even then they risk the backlash going to the properly remain parties.

    In a pre-Brexit election now, Labour will struggle heavily since their policy toward Brexit won’t stand up to scrutiny.

    It stands up fine IMO.

    Negotiate a very 'soft' Brexit.
    Put that vs Remain in a Ref2.
    Allow Labour to campaign on either side - per the Wilson 1975 precedent.
    Remain win easily.
    We stay.

    Question is, will Remainers vote smarter than Leavers in the GE so as to get a Remain majority in the HoC with Labour as largest party?

    I think they probably will. Remainers probably will vote smarter than Leavers.

    Why? - Well for the obvious reason.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Karan Singh Dogra is unhappy. “India bowled well and stopped scores,” he says.
    “It is not fair that India should score 148 in 20 overs. Same overs same runs should be applied. Play the game with the spirit of game.”

    Clearly that would be the most sporting outcome, and it strikes me that it would be immeasurably better for India to bat 50 overs tomorrow than 20 overs today. However, there will I’m sure be the dreaded Commercial Considerations to take into account."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/jul/09/india-v-new-zealand-cricket-world-cup-2019-semi-final-live

    Looks like DLS is going to completely screw over India !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Karan Singh Dogra is unhappy. “India bowled well and stopped scores,” he says.
    “It is not fair that India should score 148 in 20 overs. Same overs same runs should be applied. Play the game with the spirit of game.”

    Clearly that would be the most sporting outcome, and it strikes me that it would be immeasurably better for India to bat 50 overs tomorrow than 20 overs today. However, there will I’m sure be the dreaded Commercial Considerations to take into account."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/jul/09/india-v-new-zealand-cricket-world-cup-2019-semi-final-live

    Looks like DLS is going to completely screw over India !
    It's the fairest system anyone's come up with so far.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The Uk is basically providing a free smog dumping ground for Irish business. 400 trucks rumbling through England every day. Time for a "land bridge" tax..



    "The Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO) report on the Implications of Brexit On The Use Of The Landbridge found that three million tonnes of merchandise trade with the EU moves between Ireland and the European continent via the UK roads and ports network (the ‘landbridge’ route). The IMDO estimate that this equates to approximately 150,000 Heavy Goods Vehicles each year, with certain sectors particularly reliant on this route to market. The total value of our trade using the landbridge was estimated to be €21 billion."
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,026
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    That latter is their only chance, and even then they risk the backlash going to the properly remain parties.

    In a pre-Brexit election now, Labour will struggle heavily since their policy toward Brexit won’t stand up to scrutiny.

    It stands up fine IMO.

    Negotiate a very 'soft' Brexit.
    Put that vs Remain in a Ref2.
    Allow Labour to campaign on either side - per the Wilson 1975 precedent.
    Remain win easily.
    We stay.

    Question is, will Remainers vote smarter than Leavers in the GE so as to get a Remain majority in the HoC with Labour as largest party?

    I think they probably will. Remainers probably will vote smarter than Leavers.

    Why? - Well for the obvious reason.
    Only if Remainers are prepared to trust Labour as a Remain party. Having voted Labour for remain in 2017 only to see their votes counted in the Leave column, you can't take that for granted. Have a read of the comments on this article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/09/labour-second-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-brexit#comment-130887719
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    Why is the BBC not leading on the outragous and unprecedented attack on a serving PM and ambassador by our supposed leading ally?

    Sadly, we appear unable to hit back in the way that we ought to. In a way that would really hurt.

    "One does remember the State visit very well. One found Mr Trump to be a rather ghastly creature. #whatatool"

    Something like this from the Queen's twitter would kill any thought of republicanism in the UK stone dead.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019

    Why is the BBC not leading on the outragous and unprecedented attack on a serving PM and ambassador by our supposed leading ally?

    Maybe because no-one takes seriously anything Trump says. He's a negative force; he's only there because Hillary Clinton decided to insult 50 million American voters just before the election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    edited July 2019

    The difference between the EU and the WDA on the one hand and Trump and the Ambassador on the other is the EU want the WDA whereas Trump just wants to rant and rave. I don't think he'll care at all if Darroch gets replaced and the end of his term instead of a few weeks sooner.

    I'm afraid I completely disagree. Trump wants Darroch gone so he can claim a victory, and because he hates people criticising him.

    Trump means what he says - that's one thing I've learned from the last three years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431
    Tabman said:

    Only if Remainers are prepared to trust Labour as a Remain party. Having voted Labour for remain in 2017 only to see their votes counted in the Leave column, you can't take that for granted. Have a read of the comments on this article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/09/labour-second-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-brexit#comment-130887719

    But you don't need to trust them to be a Remain party. All you need is Ref2 with Remain on the ballot. You have to trust them to deliver that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:
    I made exactly this point in one of my videos about Brexit.

    Rules of Origin mean that we could replicate our existing trade deals exactly, but lose (for example) the right to export cars to South Korea tariff free, because they would no longer meet Rules of Origin.

    This, of course, applies to both EU and UK producers. Simply, the proportion that was local content would decline because UK manufacturers would include EU content, and EU manufacturers would include UK. The impact is, due to the relative sizes of the markets, more severe for us.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Absolute total fucking c***s have brought us to this. All the "I never voted for this type of Brexit, actually I'm in favour of a soft/EFTA/EEA/etc" bollocks and here we are.
    Harsh, but fair. Like an arsonist saying "I never intended all this death and destruction, I just wanted to see the pretty flames and the fire engines."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Karan Singh Dogra is unhappy. “India bowled well and stopped scores,” he says.
    “It is not fair that India should score 148 in 20 overs. Same overs same runs should be applied. Play the game with the spirit of game.”

    Clearly that would be the most sporting outcome, and it strikes me that it would be immeasurably better for India to bat 50 overs tomorrow than 20 overs today. However, there will I’m sure be the dreaded Commercial Considerations to take into account."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/jul/09/india-v-new-zealand-cricket-world-cup-2019-semi-final-live

    Looks like DLS is going to completely screw over India !
    It's the fairest system anyone's come up with so far.
    It overvalues acceleration a touch with a fast paced start to the match. For instance in England's world record 481-6 after 20 overs the Duckworth Lewis implied score from 156-1 after 20 overs would have been 553. In reality you'll get a flatter profile when the starters storm off as Roy/Bairstow can.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    Scott_P said:
    Do they not realise how bad this sort of response makes them look?

    If their systems were as robust as claimed, no-one would be resigning.

    It is only going to get worse tomorrow
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    I made exactly this point in one of my videos about Brexit.

    Rules of Origin mean that we could replicate our existing trade deals exactly, but lose (for example) the right to export cars to South Korea tariff free, because they would no longer meet Rules of Origin.

    This, of course, applies to both EU and UK producers. Simply, the proportion that was local content would decline because UK manufacturers would include EU content, and EU manufacturers would include UK. The impact is, due to the relative sizes of the markets, more severe for us.

    We have had enough of experts...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,026
    kinabalu said:

    Tabman said:

    Only if Remainers are prepared to trust Labour as a Remain party. Having voted Labour for remain in 2017 only to see their votes counted in the Leave column, you can't take that for granted. Have a read of the comments on this article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/09/labour-second-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-brexit#comment-130887719

    But you don't need to trust them to be a Remain party. All you need is Ref2 with Remain on the ballot. You have to trust them to deliver that.
    I'm sure I'm not the only person who trusted Labour to deliver a proportional voting system as promised in their 1997 manifesto.

    "Fool me twice; shame on me."
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,411
    OT (Boring Cricket Stuff): From Cricinfo: "We understand that if the match fails to start by 1835 local time (for a 20-over game) then it will be deferred to tomorrow. And for that to happen the rain has to ideally stop by 1730."

    Looking at the rain radar it doesn't look likely to me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Do they not realise how bad this sort of response makes them look?

    If their systems were as robust as claimed, no-one would be resigning.

    It is only going to get worse tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/francesbarber13/status/1148618748460523520
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    CatMan said:

    OT (Boring Cricket Stuff): From Cricinfo: "We understand that if the match fails to start by 1835 local time (for a 20-over game) then it will be deferred to tomorrow. And for that to happen the rain has to ideally stop by 1730."

    Looking at the rain radar it doesn't look likely to me.

    India will be doing a rain dance I expect..
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Is Labour's policy for a binding or advisory referendum?

    No referendum can be binding unless it expressly says so in the Act. The 2016 referendum was technically not binding.

    In fact, even No Deal was hardly mentioned in the campaign. In fact, what gave No Deal legs was actually May using the words "No Deal is better than a bad deal".

    She is a very poor politician. Doesn't realise the consequence of words !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Johanna Konta has lost the first set vs Barbora Strycova after a tie-break.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431
    edited July 2019

    I will be Ok as long as Remain is an option even if the "deal" is negotiated by Labour. However, what is the difference between UK outside the EU but within the CU [ and almost in the SM ] and Remaining ?

    I cannot see why the EU should even consider Labour's proposal. It's basically having the cake and eating it.

    A very closely aligned (soft) and orderly Brexit or Remain. EU fine with either, I would have thought.

    The Labour position, IMO, is clear and reasonable and realistic.

    Question is, will we get the GE in which its electoral effectiveness can be tested? I hope so, I really do, but I fear not.

    I think BoJo will be extending into 2020 and trying to pass a deal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I don't think Hammond need worry himself. Fixing his mess will be someone else's job soon enough.
    Osborne's mess, not Hammond's.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    I make the Duckworth Lewis Stern score right now as 241

    With 5 wickets in hand? I'm surprised, I thought it would be a bit higher.
    I cannot find a good DLS calculator in google.
    Hah! Try getting an online sample size calculator for a sample with non-normally distributed errors, that'll show ya...

    ...sorry, was a bit triggered there... :)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    That latter is their only chance, and even then they risk the backlash going to the properly remain parties.

    In a pre-Brexit election now, Labour will struggle heavily since their policy toward Brexit won’t stand up to scrutiny.

    It stands up fine IMO.

    Negotiate a very 'soft' Brexit.
    Put that vs Remain in a Ref2.
    Allow Labour to campaign on either side - per the Wilson 1975 precedent.
    Remain win easily.
    We stay.

    Question is, will Remainers vote smarter than Leavers in the GE so as to get a Remain majority in the HoC with Labour as largest party?

    I think they probably will. Remainers probably will vote smarter than Leavers.

    Why? - Well for the obvious reason.
    Do you actually believe what you have written there?

    You believe it is credible to stand on a platform of negotiating a deal just so it can be defeated in a referendum?

    Do you believe any negotiating partner will take that seriously? Of course not.

    Yes, you want to support 'your party' - but really, it is ludicrous to believe that it is in any way a credible platform.

    Far more credible to stand up now and say 'Revoke' - than to go through this sort of charade.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Karan Singh Dogra is unhappy. “India bowled well and stopped scores,” he says.
    “It is not fair that India should score 148 in 20 overs. Same overs same runs should be applied. Play the game with the spirit of game.”

    Clearly that would be the most sporting outcome, and it strikes me that it would be immeasurably better for India to bat 50 overs tomorrow than 20 overs today. However, there will I’m sure be the dreaded Commercial Considerations to take into account."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/jul/09/india-v-new-zealand-cricket-world-cup-2019-semi-final-live

    If Mr Dogra wants same overs and same runs, perhaps the same number of wickets should also apply. Regardless, India should be happy with any target. The good work will not have gone wasted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    I just managed to get a potential ticket for Thursday on the ICC website, but it was £240. I might have paid that for the final, but not a semi-final.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,693
    Mr. Surbiton, hmm. Well, I'd guess if there's a Common majority for a second referendum there'd be one to back Remain if that's the result.

    My guess is a 51% Remain victory with a lower turnout. Maximum discontent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287

    Is Labour's policy for a binding or advisory referendum?

    No referendum can be binding unless it expressly says so in the Act. The 2016 referendum was technically not binding.

    In fact, even No Deal was hardly mentioned in the campaign. In fact, what gave No Deal legs was actually May using the words "No Deal is better than a bad deal".

    She is a very poor politician. Doesn't realise the consequence of words !
    "No Deal is better than a bad deal" She seems to be horrified that the Tory membership has taken her at her word :D
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Those DLS specialists here: would it have made any difference to the Indian target for any given number of overs, if, for example, New Zealand had scored 211/6 ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Of course the Uk has the €21Bn worth of trade coming accross the Uk taxpayer funded landbridge card to play.

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019

    Those DLS specialists here: would it have made any difference to the Indian target for any given number of overs, if, for example, New Zealand had scored 211/6 ?

    Yes, the more wickets NZ lose, the lower the target for India would be. The model correctly IMO assumes that the more wickets you have in hand the more risks you would be able to take in the last few overs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    Do you actually believe what you have written there?

    You believe it is credible to stand on a platform of negotiating a deal just so it can be defeated in a referendum?

    Do you believe any negotiating partner will take that seriously? Of course not.

    Yes, you want to support 'your party' - but really, it is ludicrous to believe that it is in any way a credible platform.

    Far more credible to stand up now and say 'Revoke' - than to go through this sort of charade.

    I do believe it. Because it works. It leads to Remain in the only way it is feasible to get there, given the politics.

    The EU will be fine with the UK holding a Referendum to choose between two outcomes - (i) an orderly exit to a closely aligned future relationship or (ii) staying as a full member - both of which are acceptable to them. If Labour win an election and thus a mandate for this, the EU will play ball. Of course they will.

    The Labour position is unimprovable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
    Great - so 150,000 fewer Irish lorries polluting the countryside ?

    When will this start from ?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    kinabalu said:

    Do you actually believe what you have written there?

    You believe it is credible to stand on a platform of negotiating a deal just so it can be defeated in a referendum?

    Do you believe any negotiating partner will take that seriously? Of course not.

    Yes, you want to support 'your party' - but really, it is ludicrous to believe that it is in any way a credible platform.

    Far more credible to stand up now and say 'Revoke' - than to go through this sort of charade.

    I do believe it.

    The Labour position is unimprovable.
    It would seem you are the only person who does believe that.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Absolute total fucking c***s have brought us to this. All the "I never voted for this type of Brexit, actually I'm in favour of a soft/EFTA/EEA/etc" bollocks and here we are.
    Harsh, but fair. Like an arsonist saying "I never intended all this death and destruction, I just wanted to see the pretty flames and the fire engines."
    If peoples' lives are miserable enough, they tend to vote for drastic 'solutions' not caring that ticking the innocuous box marked leave might undo >>30 years' of work by bodies like the British Council or even cause the worst constitutional upset in 300 years. Ipso facto, governments should examine why so many people felt so pissed off. Have they? No, they've spent 3 years doing little but 'Brexit, Brexit ...'.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    Scott_P said:
    That is an important step forward for equality.

    It is a source of shame that all UK citizens don't have equal rights in this area

    (the same is true with regards to access to abortion)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,159
    The Take Back Control merchants and the English Nationalists don't seem to be pilling in to support our Queen's ambassador do they? Or have I missed something?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431
    Tabman said:

    I'm sure I'm not the only person who trusted Labour to deliver a proportional voting system as promised in their 1997 manifesto.

    "Fool me twice; shame on me."

    If a manifesto commitment to Ref2 (with Remain as an option) is not sufficient for you, this implies that your vote is not going Labour's way regardless.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The Take Back Control merchants and the English Nationalists don't seem to be pilling in to support our Queen's ambassador do they? Or have I missed something?

    Perhaps they prefer to judge everyone on their merits rather than what "tribe" they belong to. I appreciate this may be a novelty for the left..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    Bang goes the Special relationship as long as Trump is President and any US UK FTA if Hunt wins then, not that that is very likely now anyway
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
    Ireland has a number of container ports, some of which are a reasonable size. None of them are - as far as I know - operating at capacity.

    Day rates for 1700 TEU container vessels are around $8,150 which is about average for the last five years.

    In the event of the "land bridge" being closed (which given our various treaty commitments outside the EU is incredibly small), then Irish exports to the rest of the EU would take 2-5 days longer than currently, and would probably cost marginally more. (On a per mile basis, container ships are more expensive than road but, of course, you still need roads at either end.)

    Closing the "land bridge" would be a very hostile act, and one that would have only modestly negative impacts on Irish exports to the rest of the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Has BoZo blown it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM as a poll yesterday showed.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    It would seem you are the only person who does believe that.

    Suggest you put your thinking cap on.

    It tends to help.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Slightly off topic, this petition deserves more signatures to secure justice for innocent people who are wrongly accused of crimes, e.g. as a result of incompetence and have their reputation shredded even if they're innocent

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/247912/signatures/new

    I first saw a reference to it on Peter Hitchens' blog, which I read now and then.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,933
    TGOHF said:

    The Take Back Control merchants and the English Nationalists don't seem to be pilling in to support our Queen's ambassador do they? Or have I missed something?

    Perhaps they prefer to judge everyone on their merits rather than what "tribe" they belong to. I appreciate this may be a novelty for the left..
    A classic case of projection. The reality is that Trump has no right to dictate who the UK sends as an ambassador, and Darroch was simply doing his job by reporting his impressions of the Administration, via channels he had every right to remain secure. If you take the side of Trump in this it is purely tribal.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    kinabalu said:

    It would seem you are the only person who does believe that.

    Suggest you put your thinking cap on.

    It tends to help.
    Ah - a smear. How very Labour. You have been carefully taught.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
    Great - so 150,000 fewer Irish lorries polluting the countryside ?

    When will this start from ?
    We (and Ireland) are signatories to the 1956 Convention on the Carriage of Goods by Road, which means that we cannot simply stop Irish trucks from traveling across the UK to get to destinations in continental Europe.

    What would be smart, would be for us to do what the Swiss do with their Vignette. Reduce road tax by 80%, but introduce a vignette. If British drivers don't want to travel on the motorways, they don't need to pay for the vigentte. And if Irish or French or Czech lorries want to use the motorways, they too will have to buy one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    HYUFD said:

    Bang goes the Special relationship as long as Trump is President and any US UK FTA if Hunt wins then, not that that is very likely now anyway
    Why would we need to bow to Trump. Our ambassador was truthful so get over it.

    It is becoming increasingly likely that Brexit is going to fail unless Boris quickly moves to accept the WDA

    I do not trust Trump and have no desire to deal with his one sided trade deals
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,159
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    What has befallen the Conservative Party. How can the party of Churchill, Thatcher, Heath, Major have got to a point where the members would like Trump to be PM.

    The party has been totally Tea Partied.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431
    Scott_P said:
    It makes sense to everyone who isn't -

    (i) Far more anti Corbyn than anti Brexit, or

    (ii) A simpleton.

    Although one can be both, of course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
    Ireland has a number of container ports, some of which are a reasonable size. None of them are - as far as I know - operating at capacity.

    Day rates for 1700 TEU container vessels are around $8,150 which is about average for the last five years.

    In the event of the "land bridge" being closed (which given our various treaty commitments outside the EU is incredibly small), then Irish exports to the rest of the EU would take 2-5 days longer than currently, and would probably cost marginally more. (On a per mile basis, container ships are more expensive than road but, of course, you still need roads at either end.)

    Closing the "land bridge" would be a very hostile act, and one that would have only modestly negative impacts on Irish exports to the rest of the EU.
    But it's not in our control, is it? We're told that in the event of no deal, there will be queues back to the M25. Will we be expected to allow Irish vehicles through so as not to inconvenience them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
    He at least campaigned for and believes in the Brexit 52% voted for, unlike the present incumbent or Hunt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692

    HYUFD said:

    Bang goes the Special relationship as long as Trump is President and any US UK FTA if Hunt wins then, not that that is very likely now anyway
    Why would we need to bow to Trump. Our ambassador was truthful so get over it.

    It is becoming increasingly likely that Brexit is going to fail unless Boris quickly moves to accept the WDA

    I do not trust Trump and have no desire to deal with his one sided trade deals
    Boris voted for the WDA at MV3 when most MPs did not, he just wants to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    Mr. Surbiton, hmm. Well, I'd guess if there's a Common majority for a second referendum there'd be one to back Remain if that's the result.

    My guess is a 51% Remain victory with a lower turnout. Maximum discontent.

    Oh god, that does not bear thinking about.

    FWIW, I think Remain would win easily. 60/40 sort of thing. Maybe bigger.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    What has befallen the Conservative Party. How can the party of Churchill, Thatcher, Heath, Major have got to a point where the members would like Trump to be PM.

    The party has been totally Tea Partied.
    They liked Reagan too who the liberal elite also dismissed.

    The GOP and Tory elites on both sides of the Atlantic, John Major, the Bushes, Romney, May, the late John McCain, Hunt, Heseltine, all are no fans of either Trump or Boris.

    It is the conservative grassroots who are driving their support
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    HYUFD said:

    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
    You have been taken hostage by the Farage entryists with comments like that

    It is very depressing to see a conservative become so intolerant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    Ashcroft's poll yesterday had Leavers giving Trump a higher approval rating than May, Corbyn or Swinson but Remainers giving Trump the highest net negative rating of all.

    So Remainers will agree with Hunt, Leavers and most Tory members with Boris
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,693
    Mr. kinabalu, I somewhat lean towards that...

    but I thought they'd win easily 60/40 or more last time too.

    Good for Hunt, incidentally.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kinabalu said:

    Tabman said:

    I'm sure I'm not the only person who trusted Labour to deliver a proportional voting system as promised in their 1997 manifesto.

    "Fool me twice; shame on me."

    If a manifesto commitment to Ref2 (with Remain as an option) is not sufficient for you, this implies that your vote is not going Labour's way regardless.
    That is Labour's problem. There is a complete absence of trust in them among many of their erstwhile voters on the defining subject of the age.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,411
    edited July 2019
    Stopped raining in Manchester but my rain radar watching skills makes me think that it will rain again before half six
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
    He at least campaigned for and believes in the Brexit 52% voted for, unlike the present incumbent or Hunt
    You are becoming more ridiculous day by day.

    Both TM and Hunt voted for the WDA and if those you bow to now in the ERG had done the same we would be out
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    Ah - a smear. How very Labour. You have been carefully taught.

    Not a smear. Not at all. You paid no regard to the argument I made back to you. I therefore deduced you were not in 'processing' mode. Hence my 'put your thinking cap on' recommendation.

    Give it a try. It will help us communicate.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    tpfkar said:

    "Once we've delivered Brexit" seems to be the new "deal done in an afternoon" / "we hold all the cards" / "German car manufacturers are coming to our rescue" / "we can rely on GATT 24" / "little Ireland will have to back down in the end" / "Only a leaver can unite the Conservative party"

    A nice little slogan, aspiration never hurt, but it's all reliant on other parties doing things totally against their interest. Brexit will take decades to play out however orderly. All the trade negotiations, legislation for setting up our new regulatory environment, immigration rules, customs and tariffs, etc.

    But the idea that somehow, the promised land for Tories is just round the corner "once Brexit has been delivered" is just another comfort blanket that doesn't survive scrutiny. The Tories are likely to have to face the next General Election with Brexit either in chaos or still log-jammed and us inside the EU. Perhaps a better way of thinking about it would be who would vote Tory above the 9% who did in the Euro elections. Those who like their MP perhaps. Those who don't see it as a free hit. Those who like Corbyn even less. Not sure they will get you nearer 20% than 9% bluntly.

    Are the Tories really ready to fight on that basis? The LIb Dems know what happens when you fight a general election with great incumbents but an 8% poll rating. The Tories can go down as well as up....

    All good points. But there's also people like me. I don't think the Tories can deliver Brexit. I don't think the Tories should deliver Brexit. I am pretty sure that the Tories won't deliver Brexit. But if somehow they pull it off without causing chaos, well that will impress me. It's not like remaining is going to be a bowl of cherries with all the pissed off people about.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    HYUFD said:

    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
    You have been taken hostage by the Farage entryists with comments like that

    It is very depressing to see a conservative become so intolerant
    You should quit the party. It has left you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
    You have been taken hostage by the Farage entryists with comments like that

    It is very depressing to see a conservative become so intolerant
    You should quit the party. It has left you.
    And go where. The same could be said of many in labour
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
    He at least campaigned for and believes in the Brexit 52% voted for, unlike the present incumbent or Hunt
    You are becoming more ridiculous day by day.

    Both TM and Hunt voted for the WDA and if those you bow to now in the ERG had done the same we would be out
    TM deal was appallingly bad and trapped us in perpetual customs union with EU and aligned to EU rules. It was worst of all worlds and not the best deal that could have been achieved had she not allowed the EU to separate withdrawal and FTA to only follow later , agreeing to 39 billion for nothing in return guaranteed . If she was negotiating on location location I would end up paying double the value for a house
  • eekeek Posts: 17,293

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
    You have been taken hostage by the Farage entryists with comments like that

    It is very depressing to see a conservative become so intolerant
    You should quit the party. It has left you.
    And go where. The same could be said of many in labour
    Why go anywhere? Just because you stop supporting a team doesn't mean you need to start supporting another one..
  • glwglw Posts: 7,939
    If Boris paid attention to events, he'd be extremely wary of bigging up his friendship with Trump. I expect that once Trump is history a hell of lot of his friends will be playing the old "I barely knew him".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
    He at least campaigned for and believes in the Brexit 52% voted for, unlike the present incumbent or Hunt
    You are becoming more ridiculous day by day.

    Both TM and Hunt voted for the WDA and if those you bow to now in the ERG had done the same we would be out
    TM deal was appallingly bad and trapped us in perpetual customs union with EU and aligned to EU rules. It was worst of all worlds and not the best deal that could have been achieved had she not allowed the EU to separate withdrawal and FTA to only follow later , agreeing to 39 billion for nothing in return guaranteed . If she was negotiating on location location I would end up paying double the value for a house
    The way things are moving it is becoming increasingly likely it will be the only deal (maybe with some cosmetic changes) that has any chance of brexit, anything else makes remain more likely
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    eek said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Jeremy *unt tweet in the offing from the Oval Office tonight?
    You have been taken hostage by the Farage entryists with comments like that

    It is very depressing to see a conservative become so intolerant
    You should quit the party. It has left you.
    And go where. The same could be said of many in labour
    Why go anywhere? Just because you stop supporting a team doesn't mean you need to start supporting another one..
    My membership is not unconditional. It ends on no deal
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump
    When will you realise that 160,000 members do not represent the majority view on brexit or more specifically no deal

    Boris is no Messiah
    He at least campaigned for and believes in the Brexit 52% voted for, unlike the present incumbent or Hunt
    You are becoming more ridiculous day by day.

    Both TM and Hunt voted for the WDA and if those you bow to now in the ERG had done the same we would be out
    TM deal was appallingly bad and trapped us in perpetual customs union with EU and aligned to EU rules. It was worst of all worlds and not the best deal that could have been achieved had she not allowed the EU to separate withdrawal and FTA to only follow later , agreeing to 39 billion for nothing in return guaranteed . If she was negotiating on location location I would end up paying double the value for a house
    TM's deal was one which allowed us access to the EU's free trade deals while we negotiated our own, avoided barriers to the single market in goods being erected, and managed all this without either payment or free movement of people.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,431

    Why would we need to bow to Trump. Our ambassador was truthful so get over it.

    It is becoming increasingly likely that Brexit is going to fail unless Boris quickly moves to accept the WDA

    I do not trust Trump and have no desire to deal with his one sided trade deals

    Roger that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,399
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Those potatoes aint going to float to Germany..

    Ummm, yes they are, actually...
    Ireland has a number of container ports, some of which are a reasonable size. None of them are - as far as I know - operating at capacity.

    Day rates for 1700 TEU container vessels are around $8,150 which is about average for the last five years.

    In the event of the "land bridge" being closed (which given our various treaty commitments outside the EU is incredibly small), then Irish exports to the rest of the EU would take 2-5 days longer than currently, and would probably cost marginally more. (On a per mile basis, container ships are more expensive than road but, of course, you still need roads at either end.)

    Closing the "land bridge" would be a very hostile act, and one that would have only modestly negative impacts on Irish exports to the rest of the EU.
    But it's not in our control, is it? We're told that in the event of no deal, there will be queues back to the M25. Will we be expected to allow Irish vehicles through so as not to inconvenience them?
    If there were queues back to the M25, then Ireland would simply use its container ports to export to Hamburg or Rotterdam. It would add 2-5 days to travel times, and would (in aggregate) be marginally negative to costs.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Has BoZo blown it?

    Nope, most Tory members think Trump would be a good UK PM as a poll yesterday showed.

    Hunt may have blown it for the final time though by following the left liberal Remainer elite and Darroch's dismissal of Trump

    Fluent Telegraph, delivered in a Mail accent, lapsing occasionally into Express. The Conservative party is now more loyal to Donald Trump than it is to the UK, which it would happily see break apart. What an extraordinary debasement of a once great party we are watching.

This discussion has been closed.