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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris
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LOL.
He was answering a hypothetical - its someone else trying to spin "Russians"
I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.
The key at the next general election is if Boris' Brexit Deal or No Deal commitment wins back enough Brexit Party voters behind the Tories to win without enough Remainers uniting behind Labour or the LDs under FPTP for them to win
https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049
Making any such polling as good as worthless.
Remainers won't believe Jezza is really interested in calling off Brexit and will stick with Lib-Dem and Green while they've now pretty much burned their bridges with Labour Leavers...
So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.
An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
The real question is just how many days will Mr Johnson stay in office?
I think Lab's line of a Lab fluffy lovely Brexit vs a Tory nasty baby-eating Brexit will backfire although tbf they are on a hiding to nothing.
A nice little slogan, aspiration never hurt, but it's all reliant on other parties doing things totally against their interest. Brexit will take decades to play out however orderly. All the trade negotiations, legislation for setting up our new regulatory environment, immigration rules, customs and tariffs, etc.
But the idea that somehow, the promised land for Tories is just round the corner "once Brexit has been delivered" is just another comfort blanket that doesn't survive scrutiny. The Tories are likely to have to face the next General Election with Brexit either in chaos or still log-jammed and us inside the EU. Perhaps a better way of thinking about it would be who would vote Tory above the 9% who did in the Euro elections. Those who like their MP perhaps. Those who don't see it as a free hit. Those who like Corbyn even less. Not sure they will get you nearer 20% than 9% bluntly.
Are the Tories really ready to fight on that basis? The LIb Dems know what happens when you fight a general election with great incumbents but an 8% poll rating. The Tories can go down as well as up....
This polling should terrify the Labour party too. They are expected to get absolutely no benefit from Brexit being seen in the rear view mirror. They can only hope that's incorrect in practice.
It proposes to withhold payments to the EU, slash overseas aid and scrap HS2 high-speed rail in order to deliver £200 billion of investment to regions outside London, improve transport links and broadband across the country and scrap business rates for new firms outside the capital. It is casting itself, as Freddie Sayers noted, “as the party of the regions, pitted against an over-dominant capital”.
https://unherd.com/2019/07/the-battle-for-brexit-britain/
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1148567868449153025
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1148559213196693505?s=21
With the Bozo old Etonian answer "A soggy one".
Con 168
Lab 152
Brexit 175
Lib Dem 93
SNP 41
Green 1
There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.
It just seems unlikely, I guess it's because Labour is dooing so badly?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1148578584547811328
Fascinating poll - once people see they can dump Boris, Corbyn, Brexit and Farage at the same time they'll rush at the chance. LD majority?
That 'after Brexit has been delivered' is massively problematic. Nigel will scream betrayal no matter what Boris serves up and probably all of TBP and many Tories will take Nigel's side. Boris is stuffed unless he kisses Nigel's spurs and begs for his patronage.
It's worth bearing in mind, however, that proroguing parliament is not only a nuclear option, it's also a nuclear option aimed at No Deal: there are lots of regulations which would need to be passed, including very basic ones on things like regulations for agriculture (necessary if we're going to sell ANY food products to the EU). So even if Grieve's remaining amendments don't rule out proroguing parliament, they probably would have the effect in practice of allowing parliament to rule out a 31st October No Deal (subject to EU consent on an extension, or perhaps in the extreme by revocation of Article 50, although that's unclear).
Could we not get some top Hollywood CGI people to reanimate Fred Trump and have him visit Donald to say "I'm proud of you son". Would save a lot of trouble.
Edit: I see @Topping got there first!
Taylor, and Williamson, are culpable. Even very good bowling should yield 3 singles during the middle overs and a few boundaries here and there. New Zealand are the worst semi-finalists for a long and lucky that their match against India was washed out. India would be pleased though as that meant Pakistan could not qualify.
You can assume that some of those putative voters are going to be disappointed. It will be too much or too little Brexit for some of them. And then there's the likely disappointment when the sunlit uplands post-Brexit are slow to appear.
That 28% looks to me like an upper limit.
But in any case I was referring to an actual outcome at the poll figures envisaged.
I think they know this too.
Johnson's case is, in many ways, very simple if (huge if) he gets out on May's deal modified to provide the tiniest fig-leaf of modesty. "You voted to leave, and I made sure we left". The hardcore Brexiteers' case is complex, "this deal wasn't the best, and let me take you through 137 reasons why..." If you're explaining your losing in politics, and the world and news agenda moves on.
In a sense, the Brexit Party risks being a victim of its own success. The European Elections, subsequent polling, and doorstep conversations will, I suspect, have persuaded quite a lot of May's opponents that the best option is to give the new PM his deal and his moment, because the idea of going into an election on the maybe of a deal is terrifying.
Yougov differs somewhat.
https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1148529754351517702
Who invited Trump for a State visit to the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KentishExpress/status/1148588758566129665